Elenion
-
Posts
2660 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by Elenion
-
@RubiksCube My suspiciousness scale goes from 1 to 9. You're right in the middle, not village but not elim. @DroughtBringer I understand your reasoning, even if I don't necessarily agree with it. But if you have something to say, don't hesitate to say it, even if you think it's a crackpot theory.
-
That's usually a bad idea. Inactive elims don't really help their teams except as an extra body towards 'outnumber' win cons. An alternative is to target them with Dominion and let them Shatter themself. Okay, here are my current reads. In addition to each, I've included a suspiciousness rating out of 10. 2 or below is a trust. 3-4 is a good read, but I could see some room for them to be evil. 5 is my "meh, don't care too much" zone. 6 and above means I would be fine with lynching them. No one got higher than a 7. I didn't factor possible Autonomite alignments into my ratings, because at this point Autonomy's goals should match ours: find Hoid and his converts. Assassin: My read on him hasn't changed very much. He does seem just active enough to hold a Shard, though, but that's just circumstantial. Suspiciousness: 5 Elodin: Helped lynch Mage, but that seemed more like he put his vote on at the start and then forgot about it. Mostly inactive, and hadn't done anything memorable prior to that. Suspiciousness: 4.5 DA: Inactive. I don't care if inactives live or die: it's no different. Suspiciousness: 5 Doc: While I do think there's a fair chance he's an Autonomite by this point (unless he holds a Shard), Autonomy seems like a pretty benign faction compared to Odium and the 17th, and so that doesn't bother me too much. I doubt Doc is is 17th because he seemed to be truly convinced that I was one. He opposed the Mage lynch, though, or else he would be a 3 to me. Suspiciousness: 4 Kynedath: Inactive. Suspiciousness: 5 Straw: Nothing much has changed with him, probably because he's either inactive or lurking. I still think he was lying about [that one Shard], and that really doesn't seem village-like to me. If he is an elim, though, I doubt he's contributing much to their side. Suspiciousness: 7 Bard: So far he hasn't done much that has rung a bell either way in my mind. Also, is it me or has he been less active than usual recently? Suspiciousness: 5 Alv: Alv strikes me as an Autonomite or Auto themself. He was on board when we destroyed the 17th's win con. Despite his probable faction difference, both the Autonomites and us want to find Hoid. Suspiciousness: 3 Dalinar Kholin: Mostly-inactive, no read. Suspiciousness: 5. Stick: Has been a consistent voter from what I've seen, especially against Mage, where she voted on him in the Lopen lynch and this last lynch. Always seems to join existing bandwagons, though, so could be an elim bussing others or following the crowd. If Mage turns out evil (which I think he was), my trust of Stick will increase strongly. Suspiciousness: 4.5 Rubiks: I'm not sure why I had a village read on him before. Maybe due to low activity. Suspiciousness: 5 Drought: Inactive. Suspiciousness: 5 Araris: I came down pretty hard on him based on a post misread of Kas, which Aonar promptly pointed out that night. Araris still doesn't trust me due to that incident (see above for proof). I haven't gotten a new read on him since my misread, so he gets a neutral result. Suspiciousness: 5 Arinian: Last time I noted his willingness to switch votes, although I was willing to ignore that at the time. However, since then Arin's voting has only become more erratic, especially in the Mage lynch. It looks to me like he's purposefully trying to keep everyone happy in the voting department. Suspiciousness: 7 Zepherer: Suspiciousness: 5 Sart: Odium tried to kill him, and he's claimed Feruchemist (right?). He's also pushed for activity and voting. That's good enough for me to trust him fairly well, but if he survives until next day he has some explaining to do. Suspiciousness: 3.5 Aonar: I don't have much of a read on him, other than him lurking, but if votes are any indication then some other players do. Suspiciousness: 5.5 Len: Adonalsium. Duh! Kas: I trust Kas more than most everyone here, based on gut and his contributions, even though he's made a point of shooting my logic down. He would, however, have made an attractive conversion target for Hoid the last couple of nights... Suspiciousness: 4 In short, right now most players are close to 5 on my scale. My biggest good reads right now are Alv, Sart, and Doc, and my biggest evil reads right now are on Straw and Arinian.
-
I guess you beat me to my punch. Ah, but these puns, like the cookies that you have been warned about, will Ruin your life.
-
I'm a little suspicious of Sheep's death: he didn't seem like he had a death wish. Did Sheep mention any plans to anyone before he died? Also, Odium is back again. Lovely. I need to go help make dinner in a minute, but when I have more time I'm going to reevaluate my suspicions list in light of recent developments and see who might be Odium or 17th.
-
One, I confess to manipping Mage onto himself. I am an Elantrian, and I also was the one who moved that vote in the Lopen lynch. Two, in lynching Mage with my manip, I have denied the 17th their primary win con. That should offer you something in the way of proving my innocence.
-
Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss
Elenion replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
@Straw, you're getting lynched D1. I have a crowd of admirers that would do anything for my attention, even kill. -
Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss
Elenion replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Mage, you can think you're better-looking than me all you want, but you're not. Ask your wife: she spent enough time looking at me yesterday to know. -
I guess I accidentally misread Kas, then misled Alv with my gut reads post. Sorry about that. Unless Araris does turn out to have no role, he's off my primary suspects list. My suspects, then, are Mage and Straw. Straw hasn't done anything more than what I've already said that's suspicious, but Mage has. I have concrete reasons for suspecting him, as compared to the gut read on Lopen. 1. Mage wanted Preservation fixed. We've already hashed out that Unshattering all Shards is only good for the 17th, but yet here Mage is, trying to do half of the 17th's work for them. 2. Mage tried to trick Cult. We know that the 17th either lacks Cult or possesses no shattered shards. Coincidentally, or not so much, Mage apparently lacks any sort of knowledge of who Cult is, because he had to resort to deception to try to get his Shard unshattered. 3. The day that we lynched Lopen, a bandwagon materialized on him rather suddenly, late in the cycle. I find that pretty suspicious. The other two players up for lynch at the time were Mage and myself. I know that the wagon wasn't for me, so it must have been to save Mage, who was the second-closest to being lynched. But before you bring it up, I know that for all you know, that bandwagon was to save me, not Mage.
-
Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss
Elenion replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Elderly, definitely. -
Anniversary Game 3: The Curse of the Koloss
Elenion replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Although I'm already in one game, I can't resist another, just like the women can't resist me. I'll join as Cassius, and my role, like my fine mustache, is obvious. -
Hey, I actually survived! Anyone else notice that Odium didn't kill last night? I think that that means that either 1) Lopen didn't have a Champion and some inactive player now holds Odium, or 2) Odium's new holder is laying low for the moment, possibly because they feared being scanned.
-
Just noticed this. I prefer 'Autonomites'. No offense taken. The way my gut works, it makes sense. Okay, so I have two players who think that I'm 17th pretty solidly, and so just in case a friendly neighborhood vigilante decides to drop by tonight, I'll dump a list of my suspicions that will be cleared once my alignment gets revealed. Notable reads are italicized, and strong suspicions are in bold. Assassin in Burgundy: I can't say anything about his alignment for certain, but I'm 90% sure that he's not Auto or Hoid. He's just not invested enough in the game. Elodin: Seems a little lurky to me, but I find him hard to read. If I had to make one guess I'd say village. DA: Inactive. Voidbringer/Ruin, fire at will. Doc: My gut is actually leaning Autonomite due to his stance appearing neutral, much like Alv's, but I don't have any proof at this point and so I'm not going to act on it. I doubt he's 17th, though. Kynedath: Inactive. Straw: I don't personally believe his claim about there being a secret shard, just based on the way that the rules are written. Sounds like a good excuse to justify being scanned as Shardic investiture, though. I could see him as Auto himself or as a 17th regular. Bard: I would bet that he holds a major shard, such as Auto or Cultivation, due to his activity levels. Would make a good convert for Hoid, but I'm not sure if Hoid has got to him yet. Mage: Some things about Mage's story are not adding up. Like the fact that he says he's out of metals, but that he didn't find any killers (unless I'm misunderstanding him very badly indeed). The only option that I can see is that he false-claimed, and is really a big role like Hoid or Autonomy. Would advise lynching him next cycle unless we have a very good reason not to. Alv: I would be paranoid of Alv as Lopen's replacement, but Alv outed their collaboration to the thread when he didn't need to. I agree with Sart that there's a good chance Alv is an Autonomite or Auto himself. DK: No read. Probability says village. Stick: Has been active enough to hold a Shard, and her longevity would make her a good convert for Auto or Hoid. Rubiks: Eh, I'm not reading much. Slightly village. Drought: Same as Rubiks. Araris: 17th, 75% surety. His complete lack of a role--as outed by Kas--makes me extremely suspicious of him. The only no-role player that we've seen so far is Jondesu (17th), and there are enough minor roles for Seonid to have given the village enough to make there no village vanillas. Elim vanillas, on the other hand, are a good balancing tactic. Arinian: I don't like his willingness to switch viewpoints and votes, but as far as I remember he's voted with me, so I'll overlook that. Zeph: Is he/she even in the game? Inactive. Sart: Some things that Sart's said I agree with, like his suspicion that Alv is Auto. But some things, like Auto's death hurting the 17th, I don't agree with. I can't gut-read much either way, but the paranoid side of my mind has him as an Autonomite searching for credibility by suspecting their leader. Aonar: Lurky but making an effort to contribute. Complete neutral read. Len: No bias here at all. Kas: While I disagree with some of Kas' logic, the way that he suspects me actually makes me tend to think that he's village. I'd trust Kas' gut over most players here, except his read on me. Questions? I'll be on periodically for the next hour, then I'll be off completely for the 5 after that.
-
Drought brings up a good point: you can't fully trust my guesses if you don't trust me. I'll continue to use them for my own projections, though. Kas, I agree with you. If the kill roles want to come for me, they can. That's their prerogative. If you believe I'm 17th, that's your read. Really our back-and-forth isn't accomplishing anything, so let's just spend our times instead focusing on our logical deductions, because those are what are going to win us this game. Because it seems like every other player wants to focus on Hoid, I will shift my attentions there. I hope to have a suspicions list sometime tomorrow.
-
Just guessing, I bet that Hoid has only enough conversions to get himself up to standard-elim-team size, so 4 or maybe 5 uses. As long as we have at least 10 or 12 people alive, then, Hoid can't win. He has to rely on kills to get the playing field that low.
-
Kas, I know that you disagree with my reasoning patterns, but so far they have proved to be more accurate than yours. So please, get down off your high horse and stop assuming that every opinion that goes against yours is "not helping the village at best" and must be silenced. I am doing my best to help the village, and if you are village than I expect you to be doing the same.
-
I think you mean Len, not Elodin. Auto affects Hoid's second win con because they are unconvertable. While Hoid can convert Auto's followers, Auto can also convert Hoid's as long as they don't hold Shards. Also, since Auto can't convert Shards, Hoid will most likely avoid Auto's band because they won't hold any shards. Also, my interpretation of the rules has Lopen's shard passing to his convert, who has the special win con, because they would be Odium's last invest action. @Alvron What is your role?
-
Hmmm. If Alv is Auto, Odium does have a good reason to Shatter him, and it would hurt both Auto and the 17th in terms of Shards. But Alv does have a point that it would help Hoid in terms of conversions. But if Alv isn't Auto, then what? Not good things, unless Alv is Hoid or another 17th. Then good things. But really, this is Odium we're talking about. Is he likely to kill who we tell him to, anyway? Nope. Far too big of a chance of Honor defending our designated target. Odium is going to kill whomever the heck he wants.
-
You implied letting him live because you can't "work with" a dead man, plus the whole thing about moving your vote. I disagree that Hoid is a bigger fish than Odium. I addressed this in a previous post: Odium needs to shatter shards, and that creates quite the body count. Hoid can't even kill. Odium can shatter shards that are helping us, like Devotion, while Hoid can only convert them. While I by no means say that we should ignore Hoid (faster kill = fewer converts to root out), getting Odium shattered or, even better, in the hands of a player without the special win con should take first priority. Right now I'm not sure whether to be peeved that you wanted to help Odium or glad that you saved us the trouble of waiting for Lopen's role. Right now I'm inclined not to ask that Voidbringer to kill you. But if I find out that you're lying about Lopen, I will do everything in my power to lynch you.
-
Alv, say what? Assuming that you're even telling the truth, you knew that Lopen was Odium, and you were going to let him live? I'd accuse you of being Lopen's convert, but if you were I doubt you'd announce your collaboration. Although... @Kasimir if Alv is telling the truth, it appears my logic wasn't as flawed as you claimed. Why were you defending Lopen so strongly?
-
@A Budgie It was actually I who started that pun, unless I happened across an existing one by accident. It was back when I actually commented places outside of SE.
-
The reason that Odium is such a big threat in my mind is that Odium will blow you to smithereens while Auto and Hoid will just invite you into their circle, and because so far Odium has been making a killing with those shards (pun intended), while I doubt that Hoid has had as much success. I assume that if a Shard is regenerated, that will be announced in-thread. If so, then we can tell that the Shard is not having too much success with Option 1. They either lack Cult, the shattered shards, or both. As for their alternate win con, I think that Hoid has the advantage over Auto in that Auto can't convert Shards, so Auto will probably waste a few conversions. Still, I think that overall Auto should be able to keep Hoid mostly in check from a faction size standpoint. So while Auto has no motivation to kill and Hoid is apparently having troubles, Odium is going Hate mode. Also, I'd rather be converted than killed, but that's just me.
-
My tablet apparently will not edit previous posts. Lovely. Ninja'd with Kas' vote appearing. I guess that's only 1 manip then, but it's still concerning. Anyone want to claim it? Stick and Araris are most likely to have done it.
-
Lol Mage. Someone with manip really wants me alive, but neither of those moves were mine. Were I not myself I would be pretty suspicious of myself right now. Let's see; someone moved Doc's vote to Mage, and Kas' vote to a no-vote. Endowment, please DO NOT return Lopen. We need to see if I was right and he was a Vessel of Odium, but we can't do that if he is returned.
-
Another high-schooler from Utah reporting in. Here Sanderson is not exactly popular, but you can expect about 1 in 20 to have read one of his books. If he ever gets really big, I can say that I read him before it was cool. And although you've heard it before, do not eat the cookies, or at least put them through a metal detector first. You never know what the Dark Alley has baked in.
-
As pertaining to the old meta, that is exactly why we have such a lurking and inactivity problem nowadays: by lynching only actives and those with insane reps, you encouraged players to lurk in order to dodge the lynch. You also disregard that the only reason I knew that RNG is a strategy is because Joe, who I believe is one of the most experienced players still in the game, proposed it in the last QF. That is directly contrary to your claim that an older player would not use such an inefficient system. If memory serves I also heard of using an RNG in LG24 from Alv, STINK, or Lopen, but I cannot check because I deleted the Derethi PM about a month or two ago for inbox organization. Contrasting with that, I have never heard a new player propose such a kill system. I will give you that point on Araris. You also assert that I am just looking for excuses to lynch people. That is not accurate. I am looking for evidence, and once I weigh that evidence then I am going to put my vote where my mouth is. Doesn't everyone? Right now I have found what I believe to be sound evidence against Lopen, so I have voted in that light. If you can provide me with sound evidence that makes me believe Lopen is innocent, I will rescind my vote. Your last 2 sentences also strike me as off. So you're saying that because I'm not evil, I'm not helpful? That's not what I'd expect to hear from a villager's mouth. Mage, my vote on Lopen is based primarily on the kill patterns so far. In my first paragraph I validate my earlier claim that a player like Lopen, Kas, or Alv is most likely to be Odium. Kas, as he has emphatically stated, does not agree with me. I also have a very bad gut read on Lopen, although that of course does not lend itself to justification very well.
