DeTess
-
Posts
2062 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Profiles
News
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Everything posted by DeTess
-
You ca't actually quote the GM PM. However, the gram must have been bought last turn, not this turn, and you've only gotten that money at the start of this turn.
-
How exactly would you have done that last cycle? Would you have taken out a loan?
-
Anyway, I've been going over the past couple of cycles as well to see if I can get some actual suspicions, rather than some gut-feelings. I'm going to talk about QueenSteph, Drake Marshall and PK for starters, and might get to some others as well. So lets start with, @queensteph. From her posts I'm definitely more getting an impression of being slightly lost and not sure what to do (not meant to disparage you in any way, queensteph, so apologies if it comes over that way), rather than malicious intent. She did seem to appear more certain when starting other games she'd been part of (as far as I can tell when quickly skimming through her first couple of comments), but the last one of those ended more than a year ago, so I wouldn't say that's alignment indicative one way or another. I think a couple of the things she'd said in the thread, such as asking clarification about the specifics of PK plan she might have not posted if she had access to an elim doc in which to discuss things with others first. I suspect she'd also have been a bit more consistent with her votes if she was an elim. Constantly switching up votes is something I'd expect a villager would be more inclined to do as new information is revealed (within reason, of course), while an elim would be more likely to stick to a lynch target unless some very compelling evidence for someone's innocence is provided. I'm reading very tentatively village on her at this point, but this is still mostly down to tone, rather than anything specific. Up next is @Drake Marshall. Firs, there's an inconsistency in a post of his from page 11: I don't really see how HH's votes where less reasoned than PK's. Sure, PK provided a reason to start voting in the first place, but he didn't really support why he voted for the specific people after that. HH mentioned he was doing it for the tuition reduction, and though he has less claim to wanting that than a non-noble, Pk isn't exactly an Edema Ruh either. As I've said before, I also find his sudden decision to start voting in turn 2 after strictly abstaining in turn 1 (even after pointing out himself that voting would reduce the risk of individual people getting punished) rather odd. After the end of term 1, this had made me lean Elim on him. However, Drake's contributions to the discussion about Steph have made me re-assess somewhat. He could have easily joined the Steph bandwagon. After Orlok's post, it shouldn't have been too hard for an elim to 'find' some more evidence of her evilness though justify that vote, but he kept a more considerate stance. This could of course be an elim ploy to either protect a friendly elim, or win trust by protecting a villager, but it doesn't really look like that to me. Based on his posts he seems to actually want to think it over and come to his own conclusions, while an elim could have bandwagoned of either Wilson's or Orlok's opinion without too much risk of being exposed. So right now, I'm reading Neutral on Drake. And now, on to @Paranoid King. As I've said before, his plan for spreading out votes to get a net gain was not bad, but the fact that he immediately implemented it without first letting it be thoroughly discussed. He's argued that there would be votes anyway, and his actions prevented worse from happening, but that's using hindsight to justify his actions (as it is, people where very reluctant to start voting, even after he'd started, so I think C1 could have been without votes if he hadn't started that). There's a particular post by him I want to address though, from page 13: You mean like these people? Total: (+2). I'd say there are more people for me than against me The thing that struck me in particular was that a number of the '+' he sued to justify his position should be either '?' or '-'. For example, I made my vote on him, adn clearly indicating I was taking this action to limit the damage he was causing, so I don't see how he saw that as an argument for voting C1. Likewise, Hael's argument was that if there was a vote, there needed to be a lot of them. His first paragraph from the same post even highlighted the dangers of random voting: This to me seemed like he was trying to twist people's words to make it seem like they where supporting him. The one about my vote against him should ahve been failry obvious when seen in context, so I doubt he did this on accident. Most of PK's other posts aren't particularly alignment indicative, but I'd like to note that he did join the Queensteph lynch with a comment that seemed to come down to 'sure, I'll follow Orlok's lead', which is something I've pointed out before that I think the elims might do. So I'm currently having an elim read on PK. And, I've got space for two bonus opinions. First, regarding @Burnt Spaghetti. Her posts in the first term didn't seem particularly alignment indicative to me. There is the argument about the Gram, which is a point against her, especially since she played in LG18, so probably knew that body-guard would beat Gram in terms of effectiveness for villagers. There's also this post: This does sound a bit like a threat to me. I don't really see why a villager would make such a threat though, while the threat from an elim would be obvious. A quick intermezzo about HH, as I've mentioned bandwagoning as a possible elim tell before. I've played enough games with HH by now to know that he tends to bandwagon, so in his case I wouldn't say that is alignment indicative. The last person I wanted to mention is Cluny (mentions broke). Specifically, there is this post I wanted to talk about(emphasis mine): Now, I'm not saying that people that seem helpful are automatically good. However, I'm surprised to see this particular comment coming from a new player, as this kind of casual suspicion-throwing is something I'd expect to see from more experienced players, rather than from a relatively new player. This makes me wonder whether he was 'talking the doc'. His comment about Orlok having some good points also makes me wonder whether he's trying to avoid Orlok's suspicions by trying to appear to agree with him. So, altogether, this makes me somewhat wary of Cluny. However, I'm going to add my second vote to Burnt for now, as she appears more suspicious to me than Cluny at this point.
-
Do we really need to have another 'talk' about betraying the Secret, STINK? I really don't want everyone to know that I'm the self-aware AI created by all the interactions in the SE sub-forum.
-
Telar was sitting under a tree n the University campus. He was eating his lunch while reading a book. For the first time since the start of the previous he had time to return to reading the old saga he’d started reading before the term started. It was only an hour each day during lunch, but the little time made him feel more focused and content when it came to the rest of the studies. The older student at the archives had probably had a point when he’d told Telar to take things easy. He noticed two students on the other end of the lawn as he packed the remains of his lunch away. The two of them where clustered around the base of an old tree. Telar got up and started walking towards them, his curiosity piqued. Before he could get close enough to see who they were or what they were doing they leapt up and an away. Telar was pretty sure he could hear them laughing. Telar looked over the base of the tree, but didn’t notice anything unusual. It seemed to be an old tree, certainly, but there was nothing special about it. Apart from that slightly discolored sheet of bark. He reached out , and found that the sheet of bark was actually loose. He pulled it carefully aside, and found a hollow space behind it, filled with bananas and pears! Telar scratched his head in confusion. Why would anyone want to have a secret stash of fruit on the campus? He put the barks back as he found it and hurried along to his next course. This was probably just another one of those university things that new students weren't meant to understand yet.
-
The risk with your plan is that the masters don't regard the amount of votes when spreading their DP around. So one guy with 40 votes, and one guy with 1 will on average each get 20 DP from the masters. If the votes get spread out a bit more, this sin't as big of a risk, but then you need to really stack on the votes to get someone expulsed. Having only 1-2 people with votes on them also opens up possibilities for elim manipulation, which isn't necessarily easy to tell. For example, STINKs gut-vote could be an elim-plot to get Jondesu lashed or expelled if we follow your advice to not spread the votes too much. it could also just be a gut-vote, as I can't really tell with stink. Regarding Queensteph, I'll get around to that once I've had time to properly go through her posts.
-
I've counted 4 posts by him in the first term (remember that you can check someones profile to see their most recent posts).
-
If Sart had put in the EP on month 1, he could have been elevated based on that. If he'd gone inactive for the next month, he might have forgotten to put in lodging orders, and ended up on the street. Edit: I'll also try to have some analysis up before the end of the cycle, but that will be up within the last couple of hours.
-
That would have required a trip to Imre, which isn't too likely this early in the term, I think.
-
“Good choices. I do hope this is what you expect to need for this term, not this first week, right?” Telar was back at the archives after the short break between terms, and had just handed the list of books he’d need to the same student that had helped him at the end of last term. “Yeah, I’ve decided to follow your advice.” The older student nodded sagely and handed the list over for someone to go and gather the books. Telar shuffled nervously, then spoke up again. “You mentioned ‘cracking’ last time we talked, and there’s been a short lecture on the subject during psychology classes.” The older student raised eyebrow. “Yes?” “Well, I was just wondering, the risk can’t really be that big, right? I mean, no one would come to study here if that would carry a big risk of insanity.” The words came out of Telar’s mouth in a rush. He’d tried asking older students before, but they always seemed to be evasive about the subject. “Watch.” The older student pointed towards the doors leading further into the archives. At that moment, a man and a woman in medica uniform came through it, carrying a student between them on a stretcher. “A student found him an hour ago, deep in the archives. He was muttering constantly; ‘I knew, but I forgot, I knew but I forgot.’ Scared the hell out of her.” The older student sighed. “He spent almost every waking hour in the archives. I doubt he’d has more than 4 hours of sleep any day during the past term. Cracking is a risk, but if you pace yourself, you’ll be fine. If you don’t, you might end up like that poor sod.” A student had arrived with the books Telar had requested, and the older student started registering them. “Just stick with these courses for the term, and you should be fine.” “Thanks.”Telar wasn’t sure if what the older student had told him had eased some of his worries, or made them worse. Still, the university was a place to learn, so he didn’t think he had a right to complain when he learnt thing he didn’t like.
-
Just checking, but it is currently impossible for anyone to be able to make bone-tar yet, right?
-
Alright, let me rephrase that. I personally think it would be really nice if we could get a discussion about voting going early, instead of in the last 12 hours. I would really like it if people could give some input on that, but of course people are free to decide to do as they please. Happy now, Stink?
-
Actually, this is something we should discuss to prevent a repeat of the vote-patterns of last term. We've got two people that have basically dropped out, so they can be used for tuition reduction by voting. However, if people also are planning on voting on suspicions, we should try to get the votes at least a little spread out, imho (I believe that at his point, getting someone expelled is far more likely to hurt than to help the village). I'd prefer not having to scramble in the last couple of hours to get votes spread out, so I'd like to hear some opinions form everyone now.
-
@Haelbarde, I agree with what you said. In C1, I made this recommendation regarding the 'random' votes, and apparently I should have repeated it last cycle. Note that I made this when I did not yet fully understand how the pony works. I'd say avoid second votes on non-suspicions unless someone specifically indicates he's satying at the pony.
-
“Sorry, coming through!” It was the evening of the last day of the term, and Telar was almost running late. His legs felt like lead as he made his final sprint to get to the archives in time, while trying to not run into any of his fellow students. His back was killing him as his heavy load of books was wearing him down. With a final burst of effort he ruhed through the doors and put his heavy pack on the desk near the entrance. “Just in time!” he managed to pant. “Only if this is indeed everything.” The student manning the desk said. “You know, you could have tried bringing these back earlier? You wouldn’t be risking a fine that way.” The student started slowly going through the books, checking them for damage, and then crossing them off a list in front of him. “Well, yes, I realize that now.” Telar tried his best not to look too guilty. He had only been reminded that he needed to hand all these books back before the end of the term a couple of hours ago. Before that he’d thought he’d just be able to keep his own private library in his room until he was done studying. Telar waited patiently as the other student checked the third batch of books he’d brought in. After a moment, the older student spoke up again. “If I might give a piece of advice? Focus one or two subjects next term. You must have been running yourself ragged trying to keep up with all these courses.” “I can handle it.” Telar said, though in truth he’d lost a lot of sleep the last week or so finishing all the work he’d had to do. “Ah. Then there must be some other reason you look like you haven't slept for a week straight” The student put the final book down. “You’re sure that this is everything? Nothing left in your bag?” Panic gripped Telar as he looked through his back again, but he’d handed it in every book he’d brought. He’d even checked his room twice to make sure he wasn’t forgetting anything. “Nothing?” The other student asked. “I assume you know the fine for handing books in late?” Telar sighed, then moved to grab his coin pouch. “Luckily, for you, you’ve actually handed in everything in time. Just try not to leave it this late next time. I normally get to go home a bit early on the final day of the term.” He handed Telar a note confirming he’d returned his books. "Now get going, and try not to overwork yourself. One person cracking this term is more than enough." Edit: Apologies for the double post.
-
That makes more sense. In that case, sorry for the misunderstanding, Jondesu,
-
Actually, because of the random DP added by the masters, any vote on someone not staying in the golden pony has the potential of doing serious damage, though the more the votes are spread around, the less likely this is.
-
Allright, 45/7 is actually slightly less than 7. Apologies if you get in trouble because of this. Pretty much this. Edit: So, if I may make a suggestion, let's start this voting thing within the first 12 hours next turn, instead of the last 12?
-
Okay, so if Drake is staying in the pony, voting on him will not actually reduce the chance of anyone getting expelled, unless someone else is going to add some votes to him. I'm still annoyed/suspicious that the's started this round of voting this late in the cycle, but damage control takes precedence. I'm voting Ornstein and Cluny. The following people currently have votes: Wilson, Amanuensis, DA, HH, Arinian, Burnt, Mage, Queesteph, Alvron. Of these, Wilson has indicated she's saying at the golden pony, so the 1 vote on her on't go through. Ornstein, Alvron and Cluny could also possibly be staying at the pony (but that goes for everyone apart from the Vints and the Edema Ruh). That means the votes will be split over at least 6 people, which means an average of 7DP (45/6, thanks for the correction Wilson). Since people need at least 11 DP to be considered for expulsion, this should reduce the risk of people getting expelled significantly. Arinian, getting voted on sucks, but you're in a slightly better position to take a 2 talent penalty than people who get less than 10 talents in their stipend.
-
Right, what I meant to ask was whether the chance of someone getting extra DP from the masters is affected by the amount of votes. So would everyone voting on DA mean he'd have a 99% chance (or something around that) to get each DP from the masters, or would he only have a 25% chance if there are 3 others with only 1 vote.
-
Since it's looking unlikely at this point that all dangerous votes will be retracted, I'll be voting on Drake Marshall. I've explained before why I thought his actions where suspicious. I'll put my second vote out in a bit to help spread the damage around enough. @Elbereth (or other GM's) is the spread of the DP handed out by masters influenced by how many votes someone has? For example, say, Burnt, Drake and HH all have 1 vote, and DA has 30, would DA be more likely to get DP from the masters, or would it be spread evenly among the 4 of them?
-
The action order from the rules: As you can see, offensive actions happen before the horns, so someone taken on the horns and getting lashing will still be able to do an offensive action (like sabotage) first. This is why I'm really disliking these initial lynches. they might be useful later, as Aonar described, but until people actually start getting actions, they are far more likely to hurt the village. this also makes me suspicious of the people that initiated these lynches. I don't really see what changed from last cycle that made Drake decide to vote this cycle, and he voted far closer to the end, increasing the chances of people getting expelled or getting a 3-turn roleblock.
-
I'm pretty sure nothing happens, as the masters can't distribute DP over people without votes (or under the golden pony treshhold), there won't be any DP that goes around. And if no DP goes around, no one comes on the horns.
-
@Burnt Spaghetti, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, you wouldn't happen to both be staying at the golden pony?
-
That was actually from last cycle's thread . I'm well aware I'm not supposed to quote my GM PM. I agree with Eolhondras on voting, btw, but if Drake won't retract I do have two minor suspicions I can vote on. @Alvron, since you absolutely need the tuition reduction, you can also vote on me, as I'm staying at the pony. I'd appreciate it if you did that instead if Drake does retract his vote. Edit: Also, @Darkness Ascendant, good luck with whatever you're going through.
