DeTess

10 people, by my last count(though I am living on borrowed time). Your gut wouldn't happen to have anything interesting to say about the survivors?

Rand sat in his comfortable chair, looking out on the village. He hurt a lot. Like, stabbed-in-the-stomach levels of hurt. Not surprising, given that that was where he'd been stabbed and all. And yet, he felt happy. He'd been working hard on first writing a bucket list, and then trying to get everything done. He'd managed to strike off a surprising amount of things already, but he'd never thought he'd be able to get the "watch a dinosaur dance" item done before the end of the day, Rand didn't mind being wrong.

Ah, nice. It's always good when a plan comes together. I'm going to run some analysis on those that remain.

Do take into account that a lot of people dislike the appearance of a "Mayor", which you seem to be appearing to try to become. It's the optimal play in terms of effectiveness, just not in terms of fun, which most people are after .

Also, before I forget, Drought. In addition to what yitzi has already explained, there's this post: This would have been a perfect set-up for elim!droughtbringer. He would get to lynch village!ecth, while being able to blame it all on me, and then use this to try and discredit anything I said later. A villager would have either stood with his own suspicions, or gone over to vote with someone else without first making sure he could throw all the blame on the one leading the vote.

Well, why did they kill me in that case? and why did I help kill BR? I might as well say it now, I'm a knight (Yitzi already explained this), and bringing down BR required the two of us to work together to go behind her back. This also means I'm certain that Yitzi is village. Also, ecth, I'm really sorry. I thought it was fairly unlikely that an elim would marry a non-elim, so my surety that BR was evil this turn, together with all the other stuff made me convinced you where an elim.

This is why I'm urging everyine to really try and make up their own minds. If I'm right(and people follow my lead), the village will win easily in 2-3 cycles. If I'm wrong the elims will win in the same amount of time. @Ecthelion III, the goal of the village is to find the elims. This does not require every villager to survive. If you where in a situation where your choices are getting lynched voting on your main suspect, or voting with him on someone who is bound to be village if you're right, I'd seriously consider taking one for the team. If you are village and had gone down last cycle to the lynch, it would have thrown a lot of suspicion at me and Lopen, who are apparently your main suspects. I do understand self-preservation, but that is far more important a reason to vote for elims than it is for villagers. Villagers should first and foremost try to get their suspects lynched.

I'm sorry, but that doesn't really make sense. If you thought Lopen was evil, you should have expected that Mage would most likely be village. Plus, I didn't think you'd cave to threats if you really thought someone was evil. Just saying drought, I'm not infallible, and can end up tunneling on an innocent or being fooled by elims just like anyone else, so please, please try to use your own judgement as much as possible. That having been said, if Ecth does prove innocent, I won't be trusting my judgement anymore either, so that would make two of us. I don't think that's going to be the case though. If I do prove wrong, I really hope that we've got an active village Dancer that can compensate for it.

Okay, so Yitzi told me about the mystery info that has been driving his suspicion of ecth. What he's told me does not clash with what I've found from other sources, and as I mentioned before I've more of a village read on him, so I'm willing to I've him the benefit of the doubt for now. I do want @Yitzi2 to post this bit of info next cycle (and if he dies before that, I will). Edit: so, just to be clear, I don't expect everyone to just take my word for this. I told Yitzi that it would be better to just put everything on the table in the thread, but he was adamant that he needed a bit more time to work things out, so this weak-sauce endorsement is all I can do. Ecthelion, could you tell me why, if you where so certain Lopen is evil, did you decide to follow his lead on voting for Magestar? You switched before he'd posted his defense of your list of his suspicious actions and didn't switch back when you found a fault in that. I just can't figure out why a villager fairly certain of someone's guilt would decide to follow his lead in voting. And yeah, I know, I appear to be tunneling on Ecth pretty hard, but he seems to keep doing things that make me suspicious. At this point I just want to know his alignment for certain, because if he's evil, he's likely the key to this entire thing, and if he isn't then I can focus on others that have been below my radar or that I consider village (Lopen comes to mind).

Alright, this does punt a dent in my 'ecth is evil' theory. I'm currently looking into Semdry talents, and if I can prove beyond reasonable doubt that BR wasn't lying about not having any powers nor having gained any by marrying ecth, I'll probably back off from him. We have lost two village librarians already, so I'm going to be taking a closer look at Drought when I have time, as from a purely mathematics standpoint, he could have a decent chance of being an elim librarian. Just those odds aren't anywhere near enough to lynch him on, of course, but they do mean I'm going to take another look at his posts. Edit: so I've taken a quick look through Droughts posts again, and I'd say that he is probably village. A number of his suggestions have been actively helpful to the village (reminding everyone to make PM's, for example), and the overall tone I get from is posts is that of an active villager invested in getting this game to a favorable conclusion. I would like to see those suspicions he mentioned last cycle though.

Okay, so here's a list with my thoughts on just about everyone: Magestar hasn’t been active much, apart from one post in cycle 1, and one post this cycle, neither of which was particularly informative. Neutral\slightly elim (lurking) read. Seonid hasn’t posted too much either, though the ‘Ripple Effect’ he’s been stating as a reason to not vote on Bridge boy was quite a while ago according to elbereth, so maybe he’s an elim using that as justification for not joining that lynch. Of course, he doesn’t really need any justification for that. Him not posting much in the early cycles seems to be usual for him. Neutral read. Yitzi2 made an interesting suggestion about the use of the librarian mechanic, though he was wrong about how it worked. I don’t think and elim would intentionally feign ignorance when presenting a plan, and I’d expect him to know how it works if he was an elim, given the large chance for elims to be librarians. I don't agree with his multiple lynch plan, but I can see why he would suggest that as a villager, as in a world where everyone acts completely logical and optimally, it would make sense. Slight village read. Ornstein has posted very little. Neutral/slightly elim (lurking) read. I’m not sure yet about Hero. some of what he’s said made genuine sense, but on the other hand, I think we could have done without the CC lynch last cycle, as they tend to not generate as much discussion. Neutral read. I'm reasonably certain that Lopen is village at this point. Last cycle he admitted to being tripped, despite the chance of this resulting in accusations of him being an elim because of the lack of elim-kill. He also didn't ask the question about whether the elims could even convert and kill on the same turn, which would have cleared him of being the elim that submitted the kill (of course, if you assume that I and Lopen are elim team-mates, this reasoning falls flat as we could have just arranged for me to ask the question for him). Orlok hasn’t posted much, for health reasons. Neutral read, and no desire to lynch him quite yet because of his valid excuse. Elbereth has only just started posing again, and she’s made some good points. However, she then goes after Ornstein, who I think could be evil, but just as soon might not be, as there is little evidence one way or another, and I don't think trying to lynch him him would generate much discussion. Neutral/slightly village read. Jedal has posted twice. Once in RP and once to point out that we lost someone with a Talent. That second post does make me wonder about his alignments a bit, as elims might be more likely to point out the blindingly obvious to appear to be posting? I really don’t know about him. Neutral/very slight elim read. Unodus married Lopen C1, and host posted mostly RP. He did bring up roughly the same point about Jedal as I did, though I'd say this would be a rather easy suspicion to create if you just wanted to appear to contribute. I'd have a slight elim read on him if Lopen hadn't told me in our PM that he got a village read from him based on his PM with him, and as I said before, I trust Lopen somewhat, so I've got a Neutral read on Unodus. I’ve got a slight village read on Queensteph. She appears to be helpful in this game, though she hasn’t posted to much yet. She also abstained from voting C1 because she was busy for a portion of the cycle, and in such a case I’d expect an elim to consider still putting a vote in. Droughtbringer has been doing some planning and putting forwards some ideas that I believe are more helpful to the villager than the elims. He’s also been doing this consistently during C1 and C2, rather than just for C1 to build some trust, so I get a slight village read on him as well. I’m actually somewhat suspicious of Brightness Radiant. In C1 she talked a lot about whether Bridge Boy was evil or not and showed that she was considering voting on him. However, she didn’t vote on him, nor on anyone else in that cycle, which makes me wonder whether the uncertainty was just a front to subtly encourage voting on him, while at the same time being able to dodge any fallout by not voting herself. The comment that elbereth mentioned about her vote on cloudjumper is also worth repeating: Why did she think cloudjumper was more suspicious after going through the thread, if he hadn’t posted anything? I’m also very suspicious of Ecthelion. His justification for voting on Orlok still doesn’t make much sense to me (even after his current explanation in the thread), and his comment about how we should just ignore the librarian role also reminds me far more of an elim librarian than a village worried about people lynching someone just because he’s a librarian. There’s also his desperation to get married, which either means he has an important power (tripper or dancer, which might mean he’s actually village), or really wanted to get one (which might be elim behaviour). That comment and his courtship of BR might also have just been cover for two elims that had decided they needed to share a power anyway, and by arranging the marriage so publicly they would hope to avoid suspicion. I'm going to vote on Ecthelion for now. We could go after Ornstein instead, but I just don't think that lynching him will generate as much information/discussion as trying to lynch ecthelion will.

I just wanted to say that I'm currently visiting my parents, which means I won't be as active this cycle, though I should still be on before turnover.

Orlok made the post defending bridge boy about halfway through the cycle. A that point only 3 votes had been cast against bridge boy, which isn't much if you take into account that there are 20 people in this game, So I don't see how it was 'inevitable' that Bridge boy would get lynched at that point. Orlok even explained why he didn't have an alternate candidate in the post: Anyway, I'm still hoping to get some more useful information, but as it currently stands I'm considering voting on you again, Ecthelion.

Exactly, which is why I think it's likely if two of the three of you started as elims. Don't worry though, Unless I actually notice something suspicious from you guys, this will just remain a crackpot theory that won't influence my voting.

One vote tally for table 3: Vote tally: Cluny(2): Drought, Yitzi Drought(0): Hero Cloudjumper(2): Hero, ecth Herowannabe(1): Queensteph Ecthelion(1): Randuir

From post-game master-docs I've looked at, and talk in dead-docs and the game design thread, what is often done is to decide certain powers that the village/elims will get in advance. The player division is then done random, as is the division of powers in the elim sub-group and the player sub-group, but in games where the powers are given, not earned, assigning certain powers to the villager and the elims is an important part of balancing the game. For the rest, you keep repeating the argument that we would have lynched both suspicious players anyway. If both players are highly suspicious, I agree. However, as I pointed out, both cloudjumper and Cluny are up for the lynch mostly because they've done almost nothing. More information gained might push us towards other people, since the cases against these two is not particularly strong. Regarding last minute votes, I wouldn't be so certain it would be easy to identify an elim interfering over a villager who thinks that a double lynch is a bad idea. I, for example, am seriously considering throwing a vote on one of these two to break the tie, because I believe double-lynching is very risky. The thing about bad at math is that, unless we go through and lynch whoever was saved (which is not guaranteed with these two), we don't actually know if the elims have it. the elims might even use it to try and get us to lynch the person again, even though he is not actually an elim. Again, you're assuming we would have gone after the other one just because there is some suspicion now. For example, in LG30 Arinian got lynched twice(he got better the first time), with 4 or 5 cycles in between them. The reason it took so long to re-lynch him was that the case against him was pretty weak to begin with, and more important targets appeared. The fact that he even got re-lynched might have had something to do with elim manipulation. In Lg32, Kipper never got re-lynched after the first time failed. This is a fairly unlikely optimal case, but you're right, this would be an outcome that is superior for a double lynch. Edit: I checked, and apparently Arinain's second lynch, though definitely supported by the elims when it was put forward, wasn't initiated by them. The other example still stands though, as does this one as an example of someone not immediately getting relynched.

What makes you think it is fairly unlikely that the elims have the "bad-at-math" smedry? We know they didn't have the other vote-manip smedry, but this is one of the powers I'd think there is a decent chance that it might be given tot he elims. I'm also not so sure both of them would get lynched anyway. If no new information where to be made available then I would agree. However, there are a number of different source of information that could turn us away from cloudjumper and/or Cluny next cycle, as both the cases against them are relatively flimsy (lurking/in-activeness, and one rather odd post).

Okay, so I can see how you came to that conclusion. However, since there is a vote manipulation skill, and we don't know if it's in the hands of a villlager or an elim, this actually breaks down. If only 1 of Cluny and cloudjumper is evil, the elims could manipulate this in their favor, as if we'd given them an additional kill. Likewise, if both of them are villagers, this only hurts the village, as it reduces the number of cycles we get for analysis before the elims win by majority. Right now, the only case in which this is guaranteed to work in our favor is if both Cloudjumper and Cluny are evil. I'm not particularly willing to gamble on that.

I disagree that a double-kill would be a good idea. I think we should only do those if we're fairly sure we've got two elims. If we get two mis-lynches it reduces the amount of time before it's game over. It also opens things up for manipulation, so if that bad-at-math smedry is evil, it would allow him/her to pick who we get to lynch. Also @Yitzi2, could you explain why is a good idea? I don't really get what you're trying to say here.

I'm not saying that all librarians are instantly evil (note how I'm not voting on droughtbringer, the only confirmed librarian right now). However, we shouldn't dismiss it as a tool. If someone is already regarded as suspicious, and is then revealed as being a librarian, this could help in making a decision. Likewise, given the increased odds elims have of being a librarian, it would be a good idea to watch those people that are known to be librarians. Of course, we shouldn't lynch someone based purely on being a librarian, but I think it would be a bad idea to simply dismiss the role because there will probably be slightly more village librarians than elim librarians. That would be like saying we should just stop lynching, as there are more village players than elim players.

That is what most people are assuming right now. The 'bad at math' talent would allow one to do that.

Oops. Updated tally: Cluny(1): Drought Drought(0): Hero Cloudjumper(1): Hero Herowannabe(1): Queensteph Ecthelion(1): Randuir Also, yeah, despite my objections, I do believe that Droughts idea made some sense, and could help us find some useful information. I made PM's with Seonid on C1 and Lopen C2. Incoming PM's are for those who made them to claim, if they want to do that. Edit: I've diced to vote on Ecthelion for now. His comment that we should just ignore the librarian roles seems to me like something an elim librarian would be more likely to say than a villager. A non-librarian villager would probably be looking for librarians to keep and eye on, and a librarian villager would be looking for a way top turn that role into an asset, instead of telling everyone to just forget about that role.

@A Joe in the Bush, can the elims use both the conversion and faction kill in the same cycle? I assume they can, but I want to make sure. Edit: I can see why droughtbringer's plan might be a good idea, especially since the conversion has already happened. However, I'd also say the information he proposes we share might not be completely without value to the elims, as it might help them predict the actions of Smedry's, or take out someone who apparently has a lot of contacts.

Okay, I've done a quick reread of the thread, and there's a couple of things I'd like to comment on. First, from @Cluny the Scourge I could say the same about you, regarding posting only once to vote, and not adding too much other thoughts. Do yous till think yitzi is suspiucious? And is there anyone else you are suspicious of. Next, from @Ecthelion III: This comment confuses me a bit. I don't really see why the amount of votes a villager has should influence his decisions about defending someone. An elim would probably not defend the leading lynch candidate if they themselves are at risk, for obvious reasons. However, a villager would try to steer the conversation to someone they think is actually suspicious if they think the leading candidate is probably innocent. After all, a villager has nothing to gain by a mis-lynch. Vote tally: Cluny(1): Drought Drought(0): Hero Cloudjumper(1): Hero Remember that you need 2 votes for the lynch, and the only remaining vote manip power is vote negation.

Joe last cycle: Joe this cycle: So, it seems we've got a conversion. It's a cycle 1 conversion, so I don't think it was motivated by obtaining a smedry power, unless someone made an unwise decision in telling someone their ability (please let it not be the dancer, please let it not be the dancer). If I had to guess, I'd say that two of the Lopen-clan where elims, and decided to recruit the third, but I can't prove that (and unless you can, you shouldn't be voting on them just because I said they might be evil). Anyone have any thoughts on this, or does anyone want to admit to defecting (that would be fantastic)?