DeTess

@Karnage, out of curiosity, why didn't you claim gambler? Given the D1 lynch situation, it might have caused the entire lynch to switch off you. The kill on Araris is also interesting. I don't think they where particularly trusted, so its an odd kill for the elims. Bleeder likewise wouldn't really want to shoot for a potential elim, so I can't see Bleeder submitting that kill either, and if she had, ti would require the elim team to abstain from killing, which makes no sense (meanwhile, bleeder could go and scan people instead of killing, which is just as good fro them if they are not under pressure). The only good elim motive for an Araris kill I can see is if they wanted the village to think things about Sart. The obvious play would be that they where trying to make Sart look good, but that might be obvious enough that they'd instead want us to think the opposite, so its mostly just a deep IKYK. I think I'm going to put my vote back on Sart for now. I really don't like how they voted purely for self-preservation last cycle. edit: @A Joe in the Bush, would a double-tap be mentioned as such? That is, if Araris had been the target of Both bleeder and the elims (and/or, if that had been an even a cycle, a bartender), would we be told?

Sheesh, activity this cycle reminds me of the first post-championship game, which is always crazy. Actually, it almost reminds me of the championship game itself, but that game managed to get as much pages of content C1, with twice the amount of posts per page, on half the players, so we aren't quite there yet If I'm not misreading horribly, your analysis shows they can disperse then. But by that same analysis, there's 20 people left in total C4, which means a 10-man elim team has parity that cycle, or the cycle afterwards if there's 9. Not being able to disperse yet is less of a problem if they have de-facto control of the lynch. This post really bothers me. I can see a villager moving their vote to ensure they survive, but I don't see them moving it someone they actively think is village, especially where there's quite some time left for them to get an actual suspicion out there. Add to that the hedging/lampshading on karnage flipping village and I'm now pretty suspicious of Sart (fura). Wasn't that subtle, as I noticed it as well Also, the amount of effort Orlok is putting into making those lists is staggering. It makes me want to just read him as village and be done with it, but I could see elim!orlok (and definitely bleeder!orlok) doing so. At least that list makes it easy to test his analysis against the result of actual lynches, which should make it easier to determine his alignment once we're a couple of cycles in. edit: I'd say I did a reasonable impression of a new player during an anonymous game a while back that had some people fooled at least. I'm getting fairly genuine vibes from Emi though, so if its faked it's done really well. edit 2 electric boogaloo: I'm also getting more suspicious of Fura. The way they pointed out that no one has perfect reasons for voting C1 feels a bit hedgy/defensive, as if they're trying to cover themselves for a bad lynch outcome. That was more general musings on what that interaction meant for their alignments. As neither Sart nor Araris have been lynched yet, I can't do anything more than speculate, but it was an interesting connection that I noted and wanted to have written down in case I don't make it to the point where that speculation becomes relevant.

Just a quick FYI: I'm about to check out for the day, and there's a decent chance I won't be around before turnover.

I don't think trying to lay low cycle 1 is NAI. It actively harms the village if anyone purposefully goes inactive. That having been said, it actually makes me lean non-elim on TGK now that I'm thinking over his likely motive, as the only reason I can think of for doing this is if someone wanted to dodge the volatile C1 lynch, even if doing so this way attracts a lot of attention in the later cycles. I don't see an elim doing this, because their team could help deflect a C1 lynch if the lynchee doesn't screw up too badly, while a villager or bleeder doesn't have that safety net. However, I still believe such a move is not in the village's best interest. @The_God_King, why do you think you'll be able to contribute more next cycle? It can't be because of the volume of info, as we're already 6 pages deep at this point.

Well, I'd say it's an understandable consequence of posting without contributing anything as that could be an elim tactic to try and fly under the radar. It's certainly not something that helps out the village in any way.

It definitely has Can you explain this a bit more? I've got a slight village read on Emi based on their confusion, but that's in my opinion not enough for a strong village read. Did I miss anything? A combination of my schedule and everyone else's, actually. It took a while for the thread to pick up after my post, and when it did I was too busy to post anything else that day. Regarding your slight suspicion regarding my warning on people seemingly being protected by bodyguards: Am I wrong, given the way bleeder's self-protect works? And If I'm not, why is me pointing it out anything other than NAI? Now, for some other rambling thoughts. I'm also not really seeing the suspicion on straw right now, but if enough people talk about them it might still be a worthwhile lynch. (at this point Orlok ninja's me with a similar sentiment. If I can find another lynch, I would prefer it over straw C1 though. Given how much talk Straw brings to the table, lynching them a bit later might be more worthwhile). @The Young Pyromancer, a quick bit advice for avoiding being lynched early: do not play too defensively. Right now you've been focusing a lot on your track record of being lynched early and never being an elim (and not getting an interesting role this game either), and I consider all these things to be red flags of some sort. The best way to avoid getting lynched isn't to convince people you're innocent, but to convince enough people someone else is more guilty. I also highly doubt that there are 9 elims. Going by Furami's analysis, 9 elims would exceed parity after cycle 4 in perfect game, and at that point it doesn't really matter that they can't disperse the party yet as they can control the lynch when they need to. By that same token there is just no way for there to be 10 of them, because in that case C3 is technically Lylo. Hmmm, this actually makes me somewhat suspicious of Fura, because I can't really see village!fura missing this, while elim!fura trying to sell us on the idea of a larger elm team could. @Arraenae, what makes you think the 5th octant constable would be more likely to sabotage his own team in his attempt to get to dowser? It is one way that role could play, but I could also just seem them making a pact with the rest of the elims that they'll help them get to dowser before dispersing. Araris' defense of sart is a bit interesting, but I don't think it suggests that both of them are team-mates. If they where, I'd expect Araris to distance more. On the other hand, I could see elim!Araris to step in to protect village!sart, as either a pocketing attempt, or a kind of reverse distancing where he could sue Sart's flip to remove suspicion from his own actions. However, Araris vote wasn't out of character for him, nor is his defense of sart for the reasons, so I think it's just NAI. Anyway, to properly commit myself to voting C1, I'm going to put a vote on Fura. The only other persons that have roused my suspicion so far are the young pyromancer, who I don't want to lynch C1, and the god king, whose reticence to get involved seems somewhat out of character.

Yeah. Basically, for every cycle (hours in this game) there'll be a new thread, while the previous cycles will get merged into one mega-thread afterwards.

Alright, this is an interesting one. There's both an elim team and a serial killer, and each of these can only win alone, so the elims will be looking to eliminate bleeder. However, bleeder needs to keep the elims around in some form, because bleeder loses if the party disperses, and if the village has reason to believe that all elims have been killed, they can safely disperse, whether bleeder is alive or not. Role-wise there isn't much to comment on, except for the role of Flogs. This role is very important to the village for a number of reasons, both because its the only role-scanner we have, and because Bleeder can't win as long as Flogs is alive. Unfortunately, Flogs does not have any particular survival abilities. All I can say regarding that is for the Flogs player to be very careful, and if possible, find someone you can trust and pass on your scans to them as they happen. There's one other comment, and that is in regards to bodyguard protections. Because Bleeder's survival reads as a bodyguard protection,w e can't actually trust anyone that gets saved by a bodyguard, which is unfortunate. Luckily, the elims have a vested interest in Bleeder dying, so they might just decide to double-tap anyone that gets bodyguard protected, and if someone gets saved twice n a row, that'd be rather telling on their alignment (though not a 100% guarantee, but then they'd need two different bodyguards stepping in to protect them). I'd personally caution village bodyguards against protecting someone that ash already been saved by a bodyguard once, unless they know the person is Flogs. Yes, ti means we're losing a villager if they're not bleeder, but it also means we lose a potential red herring for finding bleeder. That having been said, the village can win by only taking out all the elims and then dispersing, so I think that, as long as Flogs is alive, the focus should be on taking out the elims. If we find a very good clue towards Bleeder, that'd be something worth dealing with, but bleeder doesn't need to die for the village to win.

*wanders in here as the LG ends* 'Hmmm, might be fun to join, I wonder who else is playing...' *looks over list* ...Orlok's back!? Yeah, sign me up as Lady Telina Maladroi

Ha, good game everyone! This one is always fun, though I'm a bit sad I got eliminated when I was so close to being a master (I had the EP, and basically just needed the elevations at that point). Its also nice to see I was wary of at least two skindancers (Lopen and Hael), and me cracking when I did confirmed Bard as evil for me as well (though not necessarily for the right reasons). It was really nice seeing the large variety of RP in this game, as well as just the massive amount of activity. Games have been a bit quieter this year than they where when I first started here, but this game was a proper return to form in that respect. edit: Also, maybe a funny thing: my initial game-plan had been to go full R&L because it had my favorite ability (action redirection). However, very early one when I started figuring out my character I realized that I also could try to get some elevations in alchemy simply to get the bone-tar, with the purpose of burning down all the rich-folk inns. I decide I preferred a slightly lighter character path in the end though.

I personally think it's something you need to build your game around. Someone not looking and playing whatever alignment they feel like playing can really mess with balancing, especially in smaller games. Someone looking, and then not joining the elim doc is more of a double-edge sword balance-wise, as the solo elim will be harder to catch, but in a role-based game the elim team also can't make use of their role and might kill them on accident. I know I personally would be somewhat unhappy if a team-mate unilaterally decided they didn't want to play as a team. That having been said, I think you can definitely design a game around the second assumption, where either all the elims can only coordinate with a vote for the kill, not knowing who the others are, or with some other type of enforced anonymity of the elim doc (such as making it clear that there is traitor in the doc).

Should be fixed now, the moving of the thread broke the link Putting a vote in for serious reasons is never dumb, even if you're wrong. Everyone playing this game is wrong about people about 60-95% of the time, so that's nothing to worry about. And if anything, you standing firm with the vote when I put it under scrutiny makes me trust you a bit more, as an elim would probably be starting to look for a reason to reconsider and go after an easier target.

But that's kinda the point i'm trying to make. Why would elim!me talking about elim!fura be less risky than the opposite? It was a rather noticeable omission, as the very next poster already pointed it out. edit: Don't take this the wrong way, btw. If you feel the need to vote on me, I definitely won't stop you. But I do want to make sure that the reasoning behind it is sound.

@Araris Valerian, to confirm, you're voting on me because you think I might have been attempting to pocket you by reading you as village for a reason you disagree with? @Lord_Silberfarben, what advantage would elim!me get by not talking about elim!fura? Anyway, let's get back to getting that reads list done. Only the commoners are left, but I won't be able to get to all of them. Burnt Spaghetti So, question for Hael and Burnt, is saying nothing alignment indicative using a lot of posts an australian thing? There are a few more things that stood out to me in Burnt's early posts than in hael's though, in particular her lamenting the lack of information, while at the same time not really doing much to start generating that information, as far as I could see. Her post pointing out that the attack on bard could have been a WGG also stands out to me in how cautious she is in raising the possibility. That post feels to me more like an elim trying to play both sides while knowing that it was a WGG (not putting more suspicion on Bard, but maneuvering herself in a position where she could earn more trust by being able to say 'I told you so' if elim!bard flips). So overall, I'm somewhat suspicious of Burnt right now. Straw First a small comment: It is true that no one really wants to get lynched, but for the elims 'not getting lynched' takes precedence over everything else. I expect villagers to be more willing to take risks and say what they thinking, while an elim will be far more cautious. Coda's approach to not getting lynched really doesn't suggest he's a villager to me. Now, on to posts as a whole. I think Straw might have the most posts I've had to go through so far. A lot of it is just general strategy and graphs, which is all NAI. I don't think him helping in organizing the spread of the votes in the early cycles is very alignment indicative, but I do find it noteworthy that when we had started voting seriously he still worked on spreading out the votes. If he was just after tuition he could have bandwagoned on any of the established wagons with that explanation, so this was the result of a conscious decision to try to reduce the consequences for those already up for the vote. As with Elandera, if Straw ends up flipping Elim, it'll pay to take another look at that vote to try and figure out who he might have wanted to protect. Overall, I'm uncertain about straw, but I don't feel like lynching them this cycle. He's started to get involved more, so I reckon his alignment will become clearer in future cycles. Xinoehp Xinoehp has been a lot more active than I've seen him before, which is quite nice to see. There's also some alignment discussion in his most recent posts, which is also nice to see. However, there is one bit of one post by him that I really don't like the look of: That was back before we started voting seriously, but I really dislike the implication in this post that everyone should just continue spreading out the votes. If it had just been his personal decision that'd be fine, but encouraging everyone else to follow suit doesn't sit well with me at all. That having been said, he followed this immediately with offering himself up in the 'I'm not a fae' gambit, though an elim could very well have doen that if they knew that the person elevated in linguistics was on their side. So, my overall verdict is to keep a close eye on them for now. Lord Silberfarben Lord Silberfarben has mostly RP'd so far. I think his only potentially alignment indicative post was going after me and Furami this cycle, and though I think the reasoning is a bit far fetched, It doesn't come from an obvious elim position. If anything, I'm getting the impression that Lord_silberfarben does not have access to an elim doc or similar supporting palce where he can ask for clarifications and questions, which makes me lean a bit village on him. Experience Experience has posted almsot solely RP, with the exception of a vote on Walin for low activity. @Experience, who do you trust most and least right now? Anyway, I'm tempted to add a vote to Burnt right now, but that'd kinda defeat the purpose of trying to consolidate votes. I might very well do that next cycle though.

It's an acronym that means 'wounded gazelle gambit'. ...oh, you want to know what that means too? A wounded Gazelle gambit is an elim tactic in which they attack one of their own, while making sure that person survives (either because of extra lives, or because protection had been arranged). It's intent is to convince people that the one being attacked must be good, because why would the elims attack one of their own?

I can see where you're coming from, but there's a couple of things to keep in mind. First of all, getting all skindancers expelled is a village win-con, so when the village starts voting in earnest, the skindancers need to get involved to protect their own members from expulsion. This leads me to the reason why a serious vote is necessary: without it, there should not be anything tying the skindancers together. If we had continued just spreading the votes, and then suddenly someone killed a skindancer, there'd be no way to determined who their team-mates might be. But now that everyone is supposed to start voting seriously, patterns can be discovered. For example, if Elandera where to flip as a skindancer, her attempt to spread the votes last cycle should warrant another look at those up for the vote, though Lopen would almost certainly be innocent because Elandera called the votes on him out as the specific reason , something she wouldn't have done if they were evil together.

You're right that someone staying at the mews for 4 cycles has a ~35% chance of going insane in total, but that doesn't change the fact that the chance that striker could have gone insane from staying at the mews last cycle is still only 10%.

Hmmm, a sabotage on Striker would fit the current pattern of elim activity more than an attack on Bard, while an attack on Bard could be a logical consequence of the votes, as someone could have tried to force an alignment flip there, which would have been useful. That does leave the question of how bard survived, but given that he had two elevations, there's a whole lot of different ways that could have happened. ninja'd by Bard with an answer to that question. @CadCom, do you believe that elims are more or less likely to make an obvious mistake in an accusation than villagers? Do you think elims are more or less likely to immediately vote on a villager that made an obvious mistake? Anyway, I don't have quite as much time today as I would have liked, but I'll make a start on analyzing the Nobles. Elandera Elandera has posted quite a bit, but she's largely in the same boat as Haelbarde as far as I can see, in that she has said a lot of sensible stuff, but not much that's really alignment indicative. Her distancing herself from those pushing for a proper lynch could be alignment indicative, but only once those people's alignment flip (and I'd like to keep mine unflipped, thank you very much ) Her decision to vote to spread out the votes once again last cycle is also noteworthy, though once again its info that'll only really become useful once the alignment of some of the people that led the vote are revealed. That vote could have been meant to protect a team-mate, or it could have been an honestly held belief. Overall verdict: Neutral/slightly elim, but she's done some things that could shed light on her alignment further down the line. Coda Coda hasn't had much noteworthy content so far, right until this post: In this post, Coda appears to be very concerned about gathering suspicion, and seems to be trying to offload the responsibility for a potential vote on Lopen on to others. This makes me very suspicious, as a villager shouldn't feel the need to distance themselves from an honestly held suspicion. Karnage I haven't got too much on Karnage yet. They played it fairly safe in the early cycles, and switched to serious voting when everyone else did. Some of his comments do lave me with questions though. @Karnage, why where you considering voting on Rathmaskal? And what about lower activity made it suspicious enough to vote on Elandera and Walin? I do like that they were tagging those not voting and trying to exhort them to action, but I also know that that is very much not alignment indicative in any way. Verdict: Neutral, for now Araris I really like Araris' encouragement of swapping to a proper lynch. I don't believe that this change was in the favor of the skindancers, so I can't see skindancer!araris making that push. Greenrover Greenrover hasn't really posted enough for em tog et any sort of read on him. @GreenRover, is there anyone in particular you trust or distrust right now? Lopen So, I've talked about Lopen before. My initial suspicions where based on his lack of Alignment indicative content, something I would have expected earlier from village!Lopen. He's been catching up now though, but the fact that it seemingly took votes and suspicion to get that makes it harder to read Lopen as village now. Still, if this content keeps going, I'm willing to not vote on him again any time soon, as with the higher amount of content, his alignment should eventually resolve. So, in conclusion, Coda, coda.

.... I had the feeling I was one short. furami Furami has been pretty active in game discussion, and isn't afraid to put forward some suspicions and trusts, though I would like to know why they think I'm village ( @Furamirionind). Overall, I'd like to elan village, but I know they're good enough at being a sneaky wolf that their current actions and activity are not really all that alignment indicative.

Cadcom shouldn't have to answer this. He might very well have gone for very early talent pipes, but given that that's an item that can be stolen, he shouldn't be forced into revealing whether he has them or not. It makes me a bit suspicious of Xinoehp that he went fishing for this info. I've found a bit of time to do stuff, so I'll do a quick analysis on our Edema Ruh strikerEZ There has been a pretty major shift in Striker's playstyle. Even after reading through his term 1 posts several times, I still don't really feel like lynching him, which is highly unusual. There have been some low-key suspicious things, like trying to organize which social classes go in which fields, but I can see all that coming from a village standpoint as well. For the rest, I'm actually getting a reasonably good gut read on him right now. He seems to be trying to solve the game, even before Araris gave everyone a kick up the behind to start playing things seriously. Kynedath Kynedath is still in the same position they were in before, with a lot of RP, and barely any game-thoughts. I expect better from them, and it's making me suspicious as this could be an elim!kynedtah attempt to try and fly under the radar. Cadcom He's not had that much activity, but the early activity he did have felt very village to me. His statement of being lost felt genuine, and that should be far less of a problem if you have an elim team backing you up. I also liked that he brought up the importance of looking for skindancers over secondary concerns like elevations rather early, even fi he didn't force the issue around votes toom mucha t the time. Haelbarde So Hael has got a lot of posts, both RP and game-talk. And a lot of his game-talk made sense. But just about all of it is things along the lines of 'be careful about what info you share' and 'Edema Ruh life is hard life' and 'I oppose using that linguistics analysis feature in a way that involves majoring'. None of these are bad things to say, but it means that Haelbarde hasn't actually done as much to help solve the game as his post count might suggest, and this is making me a bit wary of him. Elkanah has Been talking a lot, far more thane ven Haelbarde. Unlike Hael, he's shared some basic reads and other stuff that could be alignment indicative in the long run, which makes me lean a bit more village on them. Right now, in order from most likely village to most likely elim, I'd rank the Ruh as Cadcom, Striker, Elakanah, Haelbarde, Kynedath

@Lord_Silberfarben, if everyone else starts voting seriously, your RP vote is likely to get someone brought on the horns, as well as diluting the consequences for those that where brought up for the vote on actual suspicions. Is that your intention?

Normally, this'd be the point in the game where I'd do a massive stack of reads on all people in the game. Unfortunately, these posts take time, especially in a large and active game like this, and I won't have time for that either today or tomorrow, so that'll be something I can start next cycle at the earliest. For now I'm going to put a vote on Lopen. On a reread, I'm not quite as suspicious of them as I was late last turn based on gut (mostly because they pointed out that they have been fairly busy in the earlier cycles), but the amount of game comments and actually alignment indicative stuff coming from him is far lower than I'm used to when he's village, and Lopen is one of the people that I automatically distrust the moment it looks like they're flying under the radar. *** Evelyn… wasn’t exactly sure how she felt about being elevated again, and on the merit of her newest pamphlet no less. All her writings had been ignored before, but now that she’d teamed up with a noble, though admittedly one who knew his stuff and wasn’t totally blind to his privilege, she was making headway with getting her ideas out there. Well, the ideas of her and Rowan, to be precise. He provided mathematical proof, and she made it understandable for those not versed in advanced arithmetics, as well as adding emotion based arguments to his clinically logical case. It certainly was nice to hear people discussing their ideas though, even if people still failed to grasp the rightness of the proposed changes. She and Rowan already had the next step in the works though. They would give a lecture, probably sometime during the next term on his theories. She’d do most of the talking, of course, while Rowan would provide a refined version of his theory and answer all the technical questions. There was a lot of work to be done before that lecture could be given though, not least of which was correcting Rowan’s instinctual reflex to back down whenever someone disagreed with him.

There are some ways, once a lot of people start getting powers, but that's several cycles away yet, and require a lot of discussion and suggestions around the use of powers. Once there are a couple of people with reliable ways to kill, connections can be made based on the results of those kills and the discussion of suspicions that lead to that. But I don't think we should just wait until that happens, because that will give the skindancers a large headstart.

First, I agree with this (which is why, despite bringing them up, I haven't switched my votes to either Lopen or Xinoehp). I will be making an effort to get a more focused lynch discussion going next turn though. This is not actually true. The lynch doesn't cause an alignment flip, but that doesn't change the fact that most elims won't want to be lynched, and have the support network in place to try and discourage a lynch. Whereas a villager can only rely on themselves to diffuse a building lynch. So, despite not resulting in a flip, analysis of votes when people are actually voting can still reveal patterns. To give an example. Let's assume this cycle a noble hired an assassin to kill Lopen, and Lopen flips as a skindancer. With the way the votes have currently been going, the reveal of Lopen as a skindancer would be interesting, but there'd be next to nothing that could be used to tie Lopen's alignment to other people. But if we start voting for effect, and a skindancer gets revealed, then their votes and arguments for and against certain lynches can be analyzed.

Just so you know, there's a bit more time left in the cycle. GM's reduced turnover time to 4 hours, so there's still about 4 hours left in the cycle. That's imo not enough time too consolidate to a targeted vote (better to start early with that on the next cycle), but it leaves some time for more discussion if you wish.