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Posts posted by Erklitt
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@Honorless Mythwalker? I know the others, but never heard of that one. Is there a way to get it?
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7 minutes ago, Solant said:
I'm actually unsure why Relis would hear it at all.
Kaladin was touching Relis' Shardblade in a 'Last Clap' (I think that's what it was called?). I read that as: Blades can only be heard when touched by a Radiant, but then anyone else touching them is able to hear them too.
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From several threads here I got the impression that now, after Maya's statements, it is accepted Recreance history (among readers, not in-world!) that the spren and Radiants together decided to sever the bonds. But how does that fit with the shrieking Blades? It's not just pain, Relis' blade at the duel in WoR clearly makes an accusation, as he answers: 'What is it? What is it? No, I didn't kill you!' That doesn't sound like Relis' blade chose like Maya did.
So I would guess it wasn't such an unanimous decision, releasing the old Radiants from all guilt. There'll have been more nuance than that. What do you think?0 -
@Hayama Guess I should have read that last Shallan chapter again before posting this theory. You name several facts that I have overlooked / forgotten from that first frantic reading! So it was my partial memory prompting the questions. Thanks, and I'm glad I was almost certainly wrong!
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Does anyone else have trouble believing Pattern when he says he used the Seon to talk to Wit?
1. Of course it's not entirely impossible that Wit has a Seon. But for anyone to reach Wit without prearranging a time, Wit would have to keep it close at all times, yet there's never been a hint of that.
Also, in Elantris...
Spoiler... Hoid talked to something similar to a Seon, but it wasn't a regular Seon and it didn't seem to follow him offworld.
2. Wit is sequestered away with Jasnah a lot of the time. Who is supposed to have spied on him? Again: every time Pattern called him, at unexpected times?
3. Mraize told Shallan he has someone close to her, and I don't think he lied. So who is it?
What I'm saying is: I think Pattern was talking to Mraize. I'm not clear about his motives, but I'm worried.
Shallan saw several Cryptics in Kharbranth, Pattern might have been one of them.
But he made 'first personal contact' on the ship where someone tried to kill Jasnah as a job for the Ghostbloods. Was Pattern sent along once the Ghostbloods realized Shallan would be on that ship? After all there is that Ghostblood - Davar family connection.
Has he been a Ghostblood agent from the beginning, sent to Shallan? Just as the next one would be sent should Shallan kill Pattern? Are the Cryptics, or at least a group within them, allied to the Ghostbloods?
Edit: Also, this:
Quote“Who, then?” “I cannot betray this secret,” Mraize said. “Let’s just say that Lightweavers fascinate me, and leave it at that. [...]"
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17 hours ago, DracostarA said:Quote
I hold the suckling child in my hands, a knife at his throat, and know that all who live wish me to let the blade slip. Spill its blood upon the ground, over my hands, and with it gain us further breath to draw.
I think these two relate to the contest of champions proposed. My theory is that Taravangian forces a child to 'willingly' be his champion and forces a forfeit or draw from Dalinar, as it is not honourable to murder a child no matter the circumstance. I think this is the loophole that Taravangian has seen.
Brilliant theory! That particular death rattle always made me think: 'How can this possibly happen?!' But this way it suddenly makes so much sense.
2 hours ago, Catladyman said:This theory about the loophole gives me SO MUCH anxiety because I just can't think of a good way out of it.
I don't see that good way either, but if this theory is true, there will be one. I don't see Brandon ending the first half of SA with either Dalinar killing a child or becoming Odiums Fused servant.
And as such a scene is pretty sure to occur towards the end and to be resolved within a few chapters (keeping anxiety short), I would actually like to see what this good way out might be!
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You're probably right of course. It's just fun speculating, and this didn't seem completely impossible to me. So one question:
14 minutes ago, Bliev said:Mraize implies to shallan that she might recognize Thaidakar,
I missed that. That would indeed nail the coffin on this theory, could you please point me to where he does that?
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49 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:
They just feel like a team he would run.
You beat me to it - I was just writing along similar lines. So I leave out most of my argument and just add two points:
1. I do believe Kelsier might hold his crew on a tighter leash about killing aspiring but unproven members (see point 3 in my answer to beewall). But that's a minor point compared to the bigger picture.
2. Right now Shallan is the one still stalling (by not getting the tattoo) about the full membership she's been offerered. Under these circumstances I view Mraize as having been more then fair towards her so far.1 hour ago, beewall said:Kelsier's crew didn't exactly have a "if you kill one of us, we'll let you in because that's awesome" policy like iirc happened with Shallan and Tyn.
No it didn't. Here are the relevant scenes - I believe you're misremembering one of them:
1. Shallan killed Tyn in self-defense after Tyn found out that Shallan was really Shallan and tried to kill her.
2. Mraize asked Shallan for Tyn's whereabouts as a test, which Shallan passed by not disclosing them. (At least as seen by Mraize at the time - he didn't know that Tyn was already dead.)
3. When Shallan applied for membership, Mraize told her it wasn't that easy and until she'd won more trust, he wouldn't protect her from other members. He made it clear however that once she had won that trust and with that full membership: 'we protect our own'.
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I don't believe Hoid would ever cut a deal with Odium. There's this part of the letter to Frost: (ttps://coppermind.net/wiki/Letters)
Quote[...] Rayse, on the other hand, was among the most loathsome, crafty, and dangerous individuals I had ever met. He holds the most frightening and terrible of all the Shards. Ponder on that for a time, you old reptile, and tell me if your insistence on nonintervention holds firm. Because I assure you, Rayse will not be similarly inhibited. One need only look at the aftermath of his brief visit to Sel to see proof of what I say. In case you have turned a blind eye to that disaster, know that Aona and Skai are both dead, and that which they held has been Splintered. Presumably to prevent anyone from rising up to challenge Rayse.
You have accused me of arrogance in my quest. You have accused me of perpetuating my grudge against Rayse and Bavadin. Both accusations are true. Neither point makes the things I have written to you untrue. [...]
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1 hour ago, the_archduke said:
The Mink had a wife and child. Brandon has been incredibly cagey on whether kandra can have biologically human children. So that is a small hole at least.
At first I thought so, too. But then I realized that this hole vanishes once you assume the general was replaced by the kandra after the birth of the child.
1 hour ago, the_archduke said:More convincing to me is that there is a much easier explanation. The Mink can escape handcuffs. Isn't it vastly more likely that he has access to the surge of abrasion? My bet is Edgedancer or Releaser. In fact, if he is a releaser, the surge of division could be helping in his escapes as well. Disintegration of a key component will defeat most bonds.
Abrasion: possible. Division: unlikely in my opinion. All those handcuffs and doorlocks that stop working properly after they came in contact with him... unless 'Reintegration' is part of that surge. From a narrative perspective, I think that towards the end of OB, where we saw the Mink for the first time, we were past the stage where Brandon had us guessing at who might be a budding Radiant. Also, the following from RoW Ch. 2 seems to argue against the Mink being a surgebinder, as his own guards have never seen a hint:
QuoteInside the shed, several very touchy Herdazians pulled daggers on him [Kaladin] as he opened the door. In response, he sucked in a little Stormlight, causing wisps of luminescent smoke to rise from his exposed skin. “By the Three Gods,” whispered one of them, a tall fellow with a ponytail. “It’s true. You’ve returned.” The reaction disturbed Kaladin. This man, as a freedom fighter in Herdaz, should have seen Radiants before now.
1 hour ago, Toaster Retribution said:My biggest issue would be why a kandra would bother leading a Herdazian war against Odium, which was doomed from the start.
Good argument. But depending on when the switch was made, it might not be a question of 'leading a war' so much as of 'leading the last few survivors to safety'. Granted, the WoB would mean that in OB it's already the kandra that we see, and that's about a year ago. But I reviewed the text: it's completely compatible with them already trying to extricate themselves. They are on the Alethi border, and there are more refugees than soldiers in the camp. However the kandra came to be there, there's no proof she ever actively engaged in the war effort.
By the way: the kandra being a 'she' according to the WoB makes me think of MeLaan. And I believe her to be quite capable of taking up very foolhardy quests...1 hour ago, Toaster Retribution said:Furthermore, my personal preference would be if the Mink was just the Mink. He is way too fun to be a kandra, in my opinion.
I sympathize. But this theory is fueled by the question: 'Who might the kandra be?' And coming from this side, the Mink is the most fitting answer I can think of right now.
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Could the Mink be a kandra?
(I mentioned this idea in the chapter 16 discussion, but have since dug a little deeper. So far, I think it holds water.)
BS mentioned there's a kandra on Roshar:
QuoteQuestioner
Have we seen the worldhopping kandra on-screen in Oathbringer?
Brandon Sanderson
Yes, I believe you have. Ahhhh, yes, she gets around.
1. Being able to change his body quickly would certainly explain his strange abilities of disappearing and escaping shackles: just make yourself or your hands a little slimmer for a moment!
2. In RoW Ch 2 his guards describe a behavior that I find rather odd in a feared and renowned general: he seems to avoid danger.
QuoteThe cloak shifted and the body fell limp, exposing rolls of tarps assembled to appear like the figure of a person wearing the cloak. A dummy? What in the Stormfather’s unknown name?
[...]
“One would think he’d avoid playing games,” Kaladin said, “considering the dangerous situation.”
“You… don’t know our gancho, Brightlord,” the man said. “This is exactly how he treats dangerous situations.”
“He is no like being caught,” another said, shaking his head. “When in danger, he is to vanish.”
“And abandon his men?” Kaladin asked, aghast.
“You don’t survive like the Mink has without learning to wiggle out of situations others could never escape,” the tall Herdazian said. “If we were in danger, he’d try to come back for us. If he couldn’t… well, we’re his guards. Any of us would give our lives so he could escape.”
Is he a coward?
Or is it rather that while he wouldn't be in any real danger in a fight, it might be difficult to explain how he survives mortal wounds?If this theory is true, I would guess the kandra replaced the real general not so very long ago. I doubt the general would have the reputation he has if this had been his behavior all his life. Now his reputation is firmly fixed in the minds of the world and his men just accept him as he is.
Of course there's the question of why no one realized the change. But he might have made it gradually, and his current guards might not have been with him for very long. His entourage probably suffered a lot of deaths and replacements due to the war.3. And a final, though admittedly a very small tell:
In RoW Ch.16 he talks to Shallan about 'Being what you shouldn’t'.
What does that have to do with an ability to disappear?6 -
Mistborn Spoiler (thanks for the hint, @Govir)
Spoiler2 hours ago, Tezim said:I know it's not a lot to go off but I feel that Brother Benneh might be a knadra. Between Baldness (I know it's usual for ardents but that just makes it easier for a kandra to hide among them) and the sagging skin. Maybe they are used to Scadrians and people from Roshar are a little different so the imitation is not perfect?
I'm beginning to wonder whether the Mink is a kandra?
I don't know whether a kandra man can father a child with a human woman, that sounds unlikely. And I believe him about his wife and son. On the other hand, the son could be from a previous marriage of the wife, or adopted... [Edit: just realized he could just have replaced the real general after the birth!]
Anyway, being able to change his body quickly would certainly explain his strange abilities. And he talks about 'Being what you shouldn’t'...
1 hour ago, Potus said:... It most certainly houses an Unmade in my opinion. Probably BAM or Yel.
I don't believe it's BAM, because Gavilar spoke about having another way to reverse the effect of her capture. If he had her in his possession he wouldn't need the storm, he could just free her.
Quote“Our enslaved parshmen were once like you. Then we somehow robbed them of their ability to undergo the transformation. We did it by capturing a spren. An ancient, crucial spren.” He looked at her, green eyes alight. “I’ve seen how that can be reversed. A new storm that will bring the Heralds out of hiding. A new war.”
Sanderson, Brandon. Oathbringer: The Stormlight Archive Book Three (S.21-22). Orion. Kindle-Version.
By the way: was ist the Stormspren (at least among others) that Gavilar brought from Braize? Do we know yet?
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I agree with a lot of what you say. It was a long shot from the start, and you had me doubting for a while whether it wasn't really quite impossible. Yet, I still wonder, and this is why:
8 hours ago, HipsterStick said:Kelsier was a thief, but he was motivated far more by a desire to ‘stick it to the man’ than by a desire to acquire wealth.
I agree he wanted to ‘stick it to the man’. And I've checked the endings of SH and BoM again: the last we saw of him was him trying to help the Southerners on Scadrial. I'm sure he'd jump at any chance of getting off-world resources for them.
But he wouldn't be too particular about the means employed, and he never was adverse to a 'side effect' of gaining wealth, like when he hoped for the Lord Ruler's atium stores. If he can help the Southerners and make a profit into the bargain, he won't say no.
Even his self-sacrifice wasn't entirely altruistic. You said it yourself: he's a Megalomaniac. He'd rather be revered as a martyr then lose the game and end up in oblivion. The same trait showed when he refused to go Beyond even after Scadrial seemed - as far as he knew at the time - saved. He's still determined to conquer death rather than be reunited with Mare. (That, by the way, was a major disappointment for me when I first read it.) Kelsier is not a bad man, but one who can't let go and will use any means to reach his (in itself worthy) goal.
8 hours ago, HipsterStick said:In short- Kelsier inspires, the Ghostbloods transact.
For a successful enterprise, you need both. It is true that in FE he chose 'good' people for a reason. However, for a transplanetary operation, there may not be much choice, you work with whom you find. And it's not easy to oversee teams who operate on other worlds. Communication of some kind must be possible, as evidenced by Hoid's letters (sent and received), but it's probably not quite as easy as using a spanreed.
All in all, though Mraize is certainly less scrupulous than Kelsier, I'm not sure K. would refuse to work with M. and others like him. And we still don't know Mraize's goals are evil: he himself seems to think that once Shallan knows all about them she cannot but agree.
It still remains a very long shot, I don't deny that!
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This thread by @Toaster Retribution about Sebarial possibly being Thaidakar (an idea I quite liked) made me think on possibilities.
And in this thread
@Nightweaver posited Thaidakar might be Yesteel from Warbreaker, who was the inventor of ichor alcohol which could be considered 'blood for the lifeless' -> 'Ghostbloods'. That triggered me thinking that - whether this particular theory was correct or not - that the name of the group might actually be worth thinking about.
Well, 'ghosts' had me thinking about Cognitive Shadows. And then it hit:A Cognitive Shadow who is known for his cunning and mysterious ulterior motives? Who might care about power and transferring it between worlds? A master manipulator on a cosmic scale?
How about KELSIER??
I have to admit, 'Secret History' is NOT among my favorite BS books, nor is Mistborn era 2. My recollection of specifics is rather vague. And yet I have an overpowering feeling Kelsier might just be the perfect fit for Thaidakar. Those of you who are better versed in Kelsier's post-mortem development, what do you think?
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The longer I think about this theory, the more likely I believe it is.
I scanned through some Sebarial sections, and also looked at every mention we have so far of Thaidakar. While I can't find 'proof' of any sort, it still just fits:
- When Shallan first meets with the Ghostbloods in WoR and then hides inside her 'boulder' as they leave, Mraize gives the command to 'bring these pages to Master Thaidakar'. That seems to imply he cannot be too far away geographically.
- It would also be an easy explanation of why Mraize always finds Shallan so easily, although of course he could have countless other operatives in Urithiru. Still, it fits...
- And then: what sort of person would I expect Thaidakar to be? Someone who keeps far away from the action, expecting to be updated by his minions while he enjoys his solitary life, or someone who keeps near the action, hiding in plain sight? Dalinar certainly is where the action is these days - so where would Thaidakar be?
Add @Toaster Retribution's arguments, and just the narrative beauty of Shallan unwittingly looking for shelter with the man who heads the operation she intends to infiltrate... it's almost too good not to think it's true.3 -
The Syl interlude shows Kaladin working as a surgeon for a while. And working triage sites and sick wards might bring him into close and recurring contact with Renarin.
I wonder: could Renarin play a big role in Kaladin's recovery?
There've been few Renarin-POVs; the only ones I can remember right now are towards the end of OB, and those are very much 'in the moment'. We know very little of his thoughts, except when he chooses to share them. But he's had an uphill struggle all his life: the odd one out in a military family, unable to perform to their standards; the odd one out in Bridge Four for being a lighteyes; the odd one out even as a Radiant, due to his corrupted spren.
He seems to have coped remarkably well. Ok, there were a few overeager actions that endangered rather than helped those he loves, like with the chasmfiend (WoK) and at the duel (WoR), but on the whole he seems to have developed a surprisingly healthy, stable character. He's definitely never grown seriously bitter.
I don't know what exactly he could say to Kaladin, but I imagine there might be quite a lot.
Besides, wouldn't it just be beautiful if, after Kaladin has helped Renarin out to a certain extent by allowing him into Bridge Four, Renarin could now return the favor in a more meaningful way? At last, for once, it wouldn't be Kaladin who has to be giving, and not Renarin who has to be receiving.
Chapter 12 has shown what Adolin can do for Kaladin - just be there for him without demanding him to talk or 'look cheerful'. Renarin could be the counterpoint to this: the one for the occasional - or even single - deep talk.
Together the Kholin brothers might well be instrumental in saving Kaladin, and I would love to see this!
Anyone else can see this happening? And if not, why not?
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While I would like to see Adolin 'just' become an Edgedancer with Maya as his resurrected Blade, there's something I would like even more:
We already have two very different 'aberrant' Knights Radiant, Renarin and Venli. Or three, if you count Wit.
How about Adolin becoming, or rather already beginning to be, something New? An aberrant sort of Knight Radiant by virtue of his Blade being technically dead, but not quite so anymore? With her only being fully resurrected as a climax at the end, if at all?
He might even be able to make other Shardbearers more aware of what their Blade really is, and help them follow in his footsteps. Of course it always takes two, but other dead spren might like being treated as Adolin treats Maya, and respond to it.
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There are many others reasons against this, but to me the most compelling is this: Kaladin is the most loved character of all. If Brandon kills him off, a lot of readers will have had it. It would be exactly what turned off so many (including me) from Game of Thrones, only worse, because so far Brandon has avoided this sort of reader-betrayal. At least GRRM showed his colors pretty early in the series.
I think I'm pretty much a typical BS reader in this aspect, that the death of a main hero is acceptable as long as it accomplishes something great and 'makes sense' on a higher level, best of all with the hero being quite content to die while accomplishing their goal.
Mistborn Spoiler:SpoilerThink Kelsier / Vin / Elend in Mistborn.
If not that, at lest it will have to become clear later that this death had an important meaning to subsequent events and was like a seed for ultimate victory. I can't see any early death of Kaladin in any such light.
So: NO, I would take up any bet against this! :-)12 -
13 hours ago, Zelly said:
I'm guessing she did something innocent as a child, [...] except it went all wrong and set in motion the downfall of her family.
...
I think @Zelly has it right, and there's evidence in WoR (page numbers from Kindle version). Something happened in her father's garden when she was very young.
From an early conversation with Pattern on the ship:
QuoteShe could almost see it. The deck in front of her changing to a dirt path, her box becoming a stone bench. Faintly. Not really there, but almost. Her father’s gardens. Pattern on the ground, drawn in the dust . . .
“Remember,” Pattern said, voice like a whisper.
No, Shallan thought, horrified. NO!
The image vanished. It hadn’t really been there in the first place, had it? She raised her safehand to her breast, breathing in and out in sharp gasps. No.Ch.6 p105
From another conversation with Pattern:
QuoteThe image was of herself. Shallan, as she should be. Curled in a huddle on the bed, unable to weep for she had long since run out of tears. This girl . . . not a woman, a girl . . . flinched whenever spoken to. She expected everyone to shout at her. She could not laugh, for laughter had been squeezed from her by a childhood of darkness and pain.
That was the real Shallan. She knew it as surely as she knew her own name. The person she had become instead was a lie, one she had fabricated in the name of survival. To remember herself as a child, discovering Light in the gardens, Patterns in the stonework, and dreams that became real . . .
“Mmmm . . . Such a deep lie,” Pattern whispered. “A deep lie indeed. But still, you must obtain your abilities. Learn again, if you have to.”Ch. 60 p737/738
Hoid speaking to young Shallan at the Middlefest:
Quote"[...] Tell me, young one. Do spren speak to you?”
The lights going out, life drained from them.
Twisted symbols the eye should not see.
Her mother’s soul in a box.Ch.45 p526
There's two possible interpretations for "The lights going out, life drained from them."
1. She sucked in stormlight from spheres.
2. She saw lights in Shadesmar going out, meaning real lives lost.
I tend towards 2.
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On 8/17/2020 at 7:30 PM, bdoble97 said:
I have no idea what they are, however I would guess they inspired the Ghostbloods' symbol. My first thought on seeing them was: 'this symbolizes that Shallan is on a Ghostblood mission' - until I realized it was unlikely the cover showed any 'symbolic comment' like that.
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6 minutes ago, Watchcry said:
My whole problem with Brandon's explanation is if humans didn't have powers yet how did they destroy their old world. If they had voidbinding powers, how did they free themselves from Odium?
Maybe that's part of the difference between humans and listeners: Odium can force and enslave listeners, maybe he doesn't have the same power over humans. Anyway, he accompanied the humans to Roshar, so they weren't completely free of him, whether they used voidbinding or not.
Edit: That would be an excellent reason for Odium to concentrate on influencing the listeners rather than the humans directly to achieve his ends.
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This begs a question I've thought about off and on: does the progression towards full KR have to be the same for all orders? I mean: when is the bond formed, when do they gain the Blade, when the Plate... After all, each kind of spren seem to be able to make their own rules, at least up to a certain degree. Some orders (Windrunners, Bondsmiths, Edgedancers...) need to find out what the words are, the Skybreakers are essentially told what they need to do, even if they still have to choose the actual wording. Lightweavers need truths. Is there anything in the text or a WoB to prove that '3rd' is always equivalent to Blade and 4th to Plate? (Maybe with the exception of Bondsmith, though we know that Dalinar was able to summon the Blade against the Stormfather's wishes.)
Shallan had a shardblade very early on. Was she really at 3rd ideal (2nd truth) level back then?
Syl was 'bonded enough' to suffer from Kaladin's betrayal even before he swore his 3rd ideal.Nale has sworn the 5th ideal. We've never seen him in Shardplate (AFAIK).
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16 minutes ago, FatherV said:
My recollection from various threads and my own reading is that the dawnshards had a role in the destruction of the original world. Certainly, Tanavast is reported to have made such a connection towards the end.
First of all: welcome to the shard! Have an upvote.
You're probably right. I've only had time for one reading of OB so far, sometimes in a tired state, and not much time for the forums either lately. I have certainly forgotten many important hints. Yes, there was something called dawnshards, but I remeber no particulars...
But do you see a contradiction to my theory in that? Couldn't dawnshards and voidbinding both play a role?0 -
I think @Harrycrapper is on the right track.
Here's my theory about this:
Humans destroyed their world through voidbinding. After all, they came with Odium. Stormlight seems to be native to Roshar, and while we don't know exactly where voidlight comes from, it's almost certainly somehow connected to Odium.
Originally, the listeners knew the forms, but no surgebinding.
Maybe humans had stopped using voidbinding after the destruction of their old world, at least they don't seem to use it now. But still the coming of humans and Odium (and probably voidspren) brought the possibility of voidbinding to Roshar. And then some of the listeners turned to Odium, becoming very powerful, aka 'gods', and enslaved the listeners. It was the human invasion that made this possible, so humans were originally termed 'voidbringers'. (And maybe they DID use the powers?)
This led to the first war. Honor wanted to save his world and his peoples (both species), created the heralds and initiated the oathpact. And since in desolations the listener 'gods' were the destructive force, the term 'voidbringer' was transferred to them.
Then, sometime later, the Rosharan spren discovered the Nahel bond by imitating what honor did through the honorblades.
They did / do it for listeners too, but prefer humans because emotions are more readily had there.
The Fused seem to use both surgebinding and voidbinding. That probably makes them even more powerful than the original listener gods, who could only have used voidbinding. Maybe they have two spren. Maybe that's what makes them immortal.
What do you think of this theory?
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Stormfather theory, a little more fleshed out [SF 5 Prologue Spoilers]
in Stormlight Archive
Posted · Edited by Erklitt
Added a credit
There have been different threads theorizing about the 'stormfaker' in the SA 5 prologue. Putting all those good observations together, and rereading the prologue and some older scenes, this is my theory:
The Stormfather is showing Gavilar the visions, but most of their communication is being usurped by Ishar, who, as we know, has a way of interfering with bonds.
Thanks to the lettering (italics/all-caps) we know exactly when the true Stormfather speaks. It's four sentences. [Edit: thanks, @Reckoner89, just found again who made me realize this!]
Ishar's goal really is to make Gavilar a herald, to replace himself in the oathpact. As it's original author he actually knows how to do this, how to make heralds and to bond and presumably unbond them. His motive is certainly egotistical (getting out of torture), but despite his madness his ulterior motives aren't evil. He is shocked by Gavilar's not even wanting to try to give Roshar time between desolations.
He thought he had enough time for his plans: after Taln has upheld the oathpact for so long, why shouldn't he continue to do so?
But then Chana dies*, and the next desolation is suddenly on the doorstep. Ishar is 'not ready': he doesn't have a replacement yet. And 'they musn't see [or] know', because if [presumably the other heralds] knew, they'd probably come to him for guidance pretty soon, robbing him of the chance to surprise them with his successor and a relieved 'Too late, I'm out.'
Apart from his lies, he also knows things that I doubt the Stormfather knows. While honor lived, the true Stormfather was barely sentient, and as a spren he is a true creature of Roshar. Yet Gavilar's interlocutor estimates that it took the heralds one or two millenia to go mad, and seems pretty cosmere-aware, recognizing Seons. Also: '[Immortality] is not so grand as you think it to be.' and 'Everyone you know will be dust by the time you return...' Sounds like personal experience to me.
* As for knowing about Chana's death: since it's not 'death-death' the other heralds don't feel it, but as bondsmith and oathpact-creator I find it plausible that Ishar alone among them does.