DrakeMarshall

Yarr wtf is this

Everyone it is my opinion that vig shots are sacred if the heavens wanted us to vote on them they'd have give us another exe instead of a vig shot this is a fancy way of saying idk tbh Bro you use too many words it make my head hurt boil your soup! it's a good exercise and internal consistency check~

Ahoy me pirate mateys, please be advised that I'm grabbing Zephyr tonight! This explanation is accurate, but in case you want a shorter one: A "flip" is the official reveal of a player's alignment when they die. When we talk about "flipping" someone, we are talking about killing them. Aye, full sail ahead and broadside the enemy! Don't hoard consumables, death is just around the corner!

I would do what I want cuz a pirate is free. I would stun them with immense panache. I would kill everyone. This is the way. Tomorrow is the day to do or die (3v5), if we make the very reasonable assumption that there are 3 Deadrunners. I'd consider cooking up some kind of gambit to frame someone and secure a misexecution tomorrow, except I'm pretty sure there are people alive who should expect it of me. Anyways, if I were a Deadrunner, then I'd feel my team would be doing rather well at the moment, because I don't appear to be suspected by many, and the late vote swing onto a villager just gave me a terribly convenient reason to push Royal tomorrow (who is presumably an innocent villager in an evil!Drake world, because otherwise why would I have tried to get them executed?). Of course, I'm not a Deadrunner, just a normal pirate, yarr. What an interesting hypothetical! I was gonna make this joke I'm inclined towards the latter being the case, but that isn't necessarily exclusive with it also being the former.

Kas admit it you read JNV by voodoo magic lil wee space faeries Raven fwiw I'm almost certain Kas is village, the reason why it feels like he's reaching is because he's used to understanding the game state and it genuinely bothers him when he doesn't Vote Tally RoyalBeeMage (3): DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids, Kasimir Kasimir (1): TheRavenHasLanded JNV (1): The Bald Brandon Faerie Braids (1): Amanuensis Some people have voiced concerns that Faerie is voting for Royal, since Faerie is somewhat suspicious, but personally I think it's actually a slightly reassuring sign Yes, it means Faerie and Royal E/E is less likely, and if I were committed to the idea of an E/E connection, it'd be a red flag But it also means that v!Faerie credences are rising, and therefore that v!Royal credences are falling I think when you find yourself in a shortlist of suspects, it's extremely natural as a villager to gun for the other suspicious people, because with your perspective of the game state you likely have more reason than everyone else to believe they are evil, and what's more their flip might help clear your name. Whereas it is honestly not a very natural move for an elim to gun for the other suspects, because they know that even if they succeed in executing the other suspects before them, they will probably still die next, and dying a little later than you otherwise would have is cold comfort when your main objective is not dying. Therefore, they will generally try to delay and do anything but vote for the other people in the PoE with them. If they even have a concerted response, it will often be some flavor of focusing on undermining the points against them and/or on undermining the PoE itself. TL;DR - v!Faerie? e!Royal? e!Raven? maybe Or maybe Royal's village, I mean statistically most players are village, but I want a Royal flip though, sorry Royal Honestly I feel like there just isn't much information to read at this point, the voting engagement hasn't been that high and the D1 vote didn't feel like it helped my understanding much It's probably worth saying something about the present lack of strong Royal defense, but I kind of think the types of players who proactively defend Royal are similar to the types of players who make sure that they kill someone, so this type of argument holds a little less water than it might normally. Maybe the elims didn't kill, maybe the kill was blocked but nobody's claiming it for some reason, maybe they killed TJ for some reason -- I'm left hedging between possibilities. I think Aman is village, probably, but not for sure This is post #3 for me already which might be too brave but I dunno if I'll be back before EoD anyways Surely everything won't explode in the last 2 hours, right? right?

I dunno what 4-worlds or 1-worlds or whatnot are but yeah basically this. Anyways, y'all might reasonably be wondering why Kas is so convinced TJ wasn't the elim kill. Well, I took a Crimson Spore yesterday. I suspected TJ. You do the math Hence why "where the heck was the elim kill???" is the million dollar question right now. Because it apparently wasn't on TJ, or at least, there's an explanation for TJ dying that doesn't require the elims to have done it. And it seems farfetched that the elims doubled up with my Crimson Spore shot, both because that's quite a coincidence and because TJ is inherently an odd pick for the elims to want dead. So where the heck was the elim kill??? This is why, if you used a Verdant Spore last night, it would greatly help everything if you spoke up about it. It would answer the question, and furthermore it would catch an elim. I cannot really think of any significant downside to revealing this information. I'm guessing though that there's no Verdant Spore user, since nobody has stepped up yet. So where the heck was the elim kill??? I don't think they killed TJ, I really don't. So to me, the plausible options that remain are: 1) The elims forgot to put in a kill. I don't believe this is necessarily quite as strange as you're making it out to be. An elim team can talk with each other about who to kill but just... never quite close the loop on submitting the order. It can feel awkward to be assertive on group decisions like that. I've been on teams that did this, and they weren't necessarily all inactive. It's why I make a habit of submitting placeholder orders early and changing them later as needed, because I perceive it as a real possibility on any team where I'm not doing that. 2) What if TJ used Zephyr to redirect an elim onto another elim? This is clearly what v!TJ would be trying to accomplish with a redirect (you might prefer to redirect an elim onto themselves, but Sart clarified that you can't use redirects in that way), so it's not that outlandish that he'd succeed at it. What if TJ redirected an elim Verdant user into roleblocking a second elim who was carrying out the elim kill? This would actually explain a few things about our situation: 1) it explains why there's no elim kill, 2) it explains why there's nobody claiming to have blocked the elim kill, and 3) it explains why my action wasn't interfered with even though imo a known Crimson Spore holder is a good target for interference -- maybe the elims tried, but TJ knocked their roleblock off course. I know this requires something oddly specific to have happened (TJ pulls off a prescient redirect that indirectly blocks the elim kill) but it just neatly answers every question I have about our current situation, idk. Anyways, there's only so much we can accomplish by worrying about it. We should probably focus on putting one foot in front of the other and voting. It's the only way the village can village. Vote Tally RoyalBeeMage (2): DrakeMarshall, Faerie Braids The Bald Brandon (1): Amanuensis Aeternum (1): Kasimir Not a lot of voting happening so far, is there? I think TBB is less likely than most to miss a kill or to double on TJ, so I would personally put TBB suspicions on the backburner. I think a RBM vote is still valid, as is a Faerie one. While I'd probably take Aeternum out of my slight village read category and back down to neutral, I do think Faerie or RBM is preferable.

TBB is probably in my top 3 pirates I would be okay with throwing overboard today, but for the sake of diversity I'll nominate Royal Bee Mage to go for a swim. Along with TBB, RBM is one of the two (living) people I'd flag as Aeoryi bandwagoneers, and I actually kind of wonder if RBM sticks out more in light of how RBM played as a villager in QF70b. I'll confess I have little ability to read RBM especially because newer players are more likely to make bigger adjustments to their play, but village RBM generally felt a little less invested in securing a particular train, compared to RBM in this game jumping on the Aeoryi vote. Of the people hanging back in the D1 vote, I'd say Faerie most sticks out, which rounds out my top 3 list, but I consider Faerie lower priority to the other two. Such is the life of a pirate: no prey, no pay

Oh gosh oh darn I hope nobody falls overboard tonight me mateys

I don't really see it, but I'll take the free village read, yarr. It'd crossed my mind that if we hung a Deadrunner yesterday they might've tried to drag me down with them in a cataclysm of crimson, but I figured there was no sense in dwelling on it or in giving anyone ideas ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ particularly because Aeoryi was village.

<TJ, Royal Bee Mage, The Bald Brandon> (late followers on the Aeo train) <Faerie Braids, Amanuensis, JNV> (abstainers) Loosely committed to the notion of the elim team being split within these two groups. Expecting 3 elims. That's all for now, yarr.

Well ok then Guess it's another one of these kinds of D1s Vote Tally Aeoryi (6): Aeoryi, Kasimir, RoyalBeeMage, The Bald Brandon, TheRavenHasLanded, |TJ| |TJ| (2): Aeternum, DrakeMarshall The Bald Brandon (1): Hairybarron Spore Tally (unchanged since my last post) Crimson (1/1): DrakeMarshall Verdant (1/4): Faerie Braids Zephyr (1/5): TheRavenHasLanded Sunlight (1/7): RoyalBeeMage Undeclared: Everyone Else You keep saying this, and I hear ya, I do, but what do you think my spore tally is for? Well I'll tell you what it's for What I'm doing it for is so that people can coordinate grabs without blowing up. I believe being upfront about daytime grabs is advantageous, since it'll be revealed at the end of the day regardless, so I'm acting accordingly. Those who feel otherwise can do otherwise. The spore you (or anyone else) started with doesn't effect that, so while it's nice that you have a midnight spore, it's not going in my tally. Prejudice against faeries is unbecoming of you sir mood tbh anyways my vote's already in a reasonable spot from where I'm standing

ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ DrakeMarshall (•‿•)? Aeternum, RoyalBeeMage, Kasimir ¯\_(´ー｀)_/¯ Aeoryi, TheRavenHasLanded, Amanuensis, Hairybarron, Faerie Braids (－_－) zzZ JNV ( ͡° ʖ̯ ͡°) |TJ|, The Bald Brandon ಠ_ಠ Vote Tally |TJ| (1): DrakeMarshall Aeoryi (1): TheRavenHasLanded TheRavenHasLanded (1): Aeoryi Nobody: Everyone Else Spore Tally Crimson (1/1): DrakeMarshall Verdant (1/4): Faerie Braids Zephyr (1/5): TheRavenHasLanded Sunlight (1/7): RoyalBeeMage Undeclared: Everyone Else After wildly gesticulating and emoting about different crewmembers, the principles of spore supply and demand, and other more confusing subjects, the mostly mute helmsman of the Crooked Moon stepped back up to the tiller to resume steering the ship in silence.

The Crimson Spore is MINE. If any of you try and take it, you will die. I will drag you down to the deeps with me. That is all

Well, if you're still looking for players and you haven't already done a distro and stuff, I enlist as the Dead Pilot Rob Hertz, the curiously taciturn and grey-haired, grey-eyed, grey-skinned helmsman who is only very infrequently mistaken for the more famous Dread Pirate Roberts. Also, the bizarre Drake gimmick of this game shall be: I will not post more than 3 times on any turn under any circumstances >:P

Afaik I currently have 1 MR slot (not counting my joint MR with Striker which is on hold currently), right? I'd appreciate it if that number might be amended to 2.

oh I had a half-guess that neil/ash might be a possible Informant (well, that or Contact. hindsight) and kinda took the vote on Archer as encouragement but ngl a lot of my reads of this game were just missing the mark anyways TJ I stand in awe of your ability to do rollovers at 3am

I don't really believe you, and under these potentially LyLo circumstances I'll risk it.

yeah, it does Vote Tally Archer (4): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall, JNV, TheRavenHasLanded Sart (2): Archer, Stick. Stick. (1): Sart friendly reminder that if Faerie was the Informant then it's actually LyLo right now and that if anyone suddenly white knights Archer for a third time because 'nobody's defending him' or 'he's too wolfy to be a wolf' i will probably swear a vow of murderpuppy enmity upon you your whole family and your cow this is mostly a joke but also sorry Archer

You probably thought this was going to be hinting at some juicy power role, but it was hinting at me, Dio here with some Archer iso analysis ig I actually just wanted to get some food and I'm back now so here goes Anyways I'd go through all of Archer's posts and scrutinize each of them and build evidence but tbhhhh I'm too lazy to do all that and anyways I think the first 4 posts he made in the game already builds a pretty strong case tbh Archer's First Post: (this one's actually NAI to be fair ) Archer's Second Post: Bolded part indicates that he's aware that the Informant isn't anonymous. The explanation I gave specifically noted that the Informant wants to blend in and look like an elim in the elim doc, which doesn't coexist with the belief that they are anonymous. Again, Archer knew that the Informant wasn't anonymous in the doc. This was all at the beginning of C1. Now, C3, Archer's trying to feign that he never knew how any of that elim doc stuff worked: Clear-cut lie, idk what else to say. He realized he needed something to get himself out of the fire today so he tried to derpclear himself.

im ngl still think Archer is Evil tbh I actually have a pretty good reason I swear I'll share it in a bit

not that I'm aware of

Yep, that's a question I'm wondering. But here's a thought. It seems like the lack of an Informant claim is evidence that the elims feel at least decent about the odds of Faerie being the Informant. If they believed it was particularly likely that the Informant was still alive, they would probably be paranoiding on each other hard right now, because in that case, whoever the last elim is knows that the other one is the traitor. And if things were heating up in the elim doc, it would be very reasonable for the Informant to worry about being killed. And if the Informant expected to be targeted by the NK, why wouldn't they claim and out the last doc elim? So, my current working theory is that the elims believed Faerie was pretty plausibly the Informant. In this case, it seems pretty likely that they would have voted for Faerie. They would be accomplishing 1 of their 2 win conditions while simultaneously netting village cred for executing somebody who flipped red. And it frees up their NK to go after the Contact, which is very probably the intent of the Aman kill, so it fits. In conclusion, one or more Faerie voter is Evil: <Archer, RoyalBeeMage, Sart, neil the beguiled> Archer, I'm going to give you some benefit of the doubt right now for a very elaborate derp. Sart is Evil. i just submitted the nk on u

Is it though? Is it really? Or is that just something you thought up just now. The Contact only gets information today and I was already going after you last cycle. The Informant knows who the elims are, but if I'm the Informant, that makes you Evil.

whoops the tally I just posted is out of date already Vote Tally Faerie Braids (4): RoyalBeeMage, Sart, neil the beguiled, Archer Archer (3): Amanuensis, DrakeMarshall, Stick. neil the beguiled (2): Faerie Braids, JNV Sart (1): TheRavenHasLanded EDIT: Ninja'd again! Smhhhhhhhhh Editing manually

Oh the turn didn't end right I'm dumb, ignore that Sure, but as a fellow lunatic, the bit where the lunacy helps my team is a bit I consider important If you're village and don't want to play in the interests of the village, fine, but I reserve the right to doubt that you're a villager on that basis. Are you implying I shouldn't? Because yeah I'm not really judging your plastyle here I'm saying I think you're Evil. Vote Tally Archer (3): Amanuensis, DrakeMarshall, Stick. Sart (2): TheRavenHasLanded, neil the beguiled Stick. (1): RoyalBeeMage neil the beguiled (1): JNV TheRavenHasLanded (1): Faerie Braids Faerie Braids (1): Sart Personally, I don't think it's really true that everyone and their mother is voting for Archer. You could argue that the spread of the vote across so many different people is indicative of lukewarmness over the issue, which is probably legitimate grounds for doubt that Archer is a hit, but I wouldn't say Archer is especially getting dogpiled. I will also say that TWBTBAW is a situational thing. Sometimes if it walks and talks like an elim, it's not an elim it was just a villager who was an easy scapegoat. But sometimes if it walks and talks like an elim, it's legit just an elim. I can't agree with any argument that the former case is actually more common than the latter. You can certainly argue that the particular things that look suspicious with Archer actually shouldn't be seen as such. But that's importantly different from saying somebody looks suspicious, therefore they are village. That's my two cents. While I'm not village reading you for saying this for just a whole host of reasons, I'll admit I am actually kind of elim reading Archer for not having a reaction like this at any point. The 'Drake wtf why are you sounding so certain.' As of LG98, my theory is that e!Archer tends to school his reactions and consequently underreact when I get baity. Practically everyone else who's engaged with my reads at all has in some way or another had a kind of moment about my repeated insistence on my suspicions. Archer taking it in stride, somewhat perversely, makes him an outlier.