DrakeMarshall

The main use case of keeping it under wraps that I can think of is that if there's a Lieutenant and some people in the doc, then the elims might not know who's in it and they might not know who to avoid hitting with the NK. If they accidentally hit somebody in the doc, that's kind of the best outcome for the village, and by this point a sizeable fraction of the players in the game would be in that doc.

Ok time for a blow-by-blow of the game, it shouldn't even be very long. Xino RPs A bunch of people say hi <TUO, Aeo, Coffee, RBM> More RP <Me, Ash, Xino> Aet votes TUO, self-described as random later on Xino votes RBM in RP form Coffee votes TUO on suspicion that Xino's RBM vote was defending TUO - I actually somewhat think one should vote Xino in this situation, but this is the first vote with an actual reason given, which probably warrants some village credit Ash votes RBM to "follow Xino" which is a bit odd given that Xino didn't share any reasoning for it, but then again, early consolidation isn't a bad thing TUO dislikes the early consolidation smh Ash/TUO likely not E/E I vote Aet, Aeoryi jumps on Aet as well TUO makes animal cracker sacrifices instead of self-pres, villagery tbh Aet tells me why my vote is wrong and votes Ash Aet/Ash interaction, Aet retracts (Ash your endgame-playing-skills are going to be relevant soon if not already ) Xino pivots to Coffeecat once RBM asks why they were voting for him. Doesn't really answer the question, though. CadCom makes a analysis post and votes Xino, they are less likely to be E/E. It bears mentioning that this is the last vote of the cycle, one hour before rollover, with a lot of people saying they won't make rollover. Starting a new wagon at this point comes across as somewhat performative and implies that maybe CadCom is okay with the state of the current voting on Aeternum. Also, what's the benefit of allowing vote manipulation? Idk usually I see elims cast their late votes "to prevent vote manipulation" but I feel like either reasoning is reaching a bit, it's a lot less important than trying your best to get a hit. aaaaaand that's D1, stay tuned for more are connectives even that useful in this game? like, I doubt there's more than 2 elims, and there could pretty reasonably only be 1 well we might as well operate as if they're useful, but it's food for thought - we should also likely be aiming to profile what a lone wolf would be doing in this game state anyways let's talk PoE we've got 7 living players: 3. @Coffeecat 4. @Ashbringer 5. @DrakeMarshall 6. @xinoehp512 7. @RoyalBeeMage 8. @The Unknown Order 9. @CadCom Assuming 1-2 elims, that's an approximate hit rate of 14-28%, for whatever that's worth Anyways I'll remove myself from that 3. @Coffeecat 4. @Ashbringer 6. @xinoehp512 7. @RoyalBeeMage 8. @The Unknown Order 9. @CadCom I'll also remove TUO and RBM, as I believe the reasons to trust them still hold merit 3. @Coffeecat 4. @Ashbringer 6. @xinoehp512 9. @CadCom Willing to give Ash the benefit of the doubt for right now: 3. @Coffeecat 6. @xinoehp512 9. @CadCom And that's the PoE. I predict that however many elims there are can be found in <Coffeecat, Xino, CadCom>. I would tier <CadCom, Xino> on a level below CoffeeCat in trust. It bears mentioning that CadCom wants to vote Xino. I think this is actually a solid reason to village!read CadCom above Xino atm. For one, it indicates that CadCom has a consistent worldview that actually makes sense for v!CadCom in this situation: if v!CadCom, then e!Xino is more likely, and the fact that CadCom (who knows they are village) arrived at e!Xino before anyone else would make quite a bit of sense. For two, I find that elims who are in a PoE of 2 are a lot less likely to try to gun for the other guy - they know that they'll get killed next regardless, and it's a lot harder for them to find the pure motivation to go down that route, as they would much prefer to aim to delay either of the 2 suspects being flipped as much as possible. In conclusion, Xino. I've probably been pocketed by good RP

largely for the same reasons as RBM - D1 voting had a really slow start and I don't think that bodes well for the initial wagons being a hit pitch in that TUA declined to self-pres, and I'm fairly sure that e!TUA isn't shy about self-pres I... wouldn't call it a clear probably, clear's a strong word, but like, TUA looks reasonably village here my only sticking point is really that TUA didn't vote, but the above outweighs that that would be appreciated, sleep well oh also if I die tonight please remember that a game of this size likely doesn't last very many cycles ...I think it's reasonable to assume the average game length Kas expects is less than 4 cycles, otherwise the Fourth Bridge winning at the beginning of cycle 5 wouldn't be sufficiently challenging. Or to approach it from a different angle, ~2 deaths per cycle and 9 players (not all of whom are necessarily aligned along village/elim faction lines) does not a very lengthy game make. So, we likely only have between 1 and 2 days to get it right, so just.. keep that in mind going forward o7

1. @Aeternum 2. @Aeoryi - Likely village. 3. @Coffeecat - A lil sus, but there's a Reason:tm: I'd really prefer to wait on this that should eventually become apparent. 4. @Ashbringer - A lil sus, but there's a Reason:tm: I'd really prefer to wait on this that should eventually become apparent. 5. @DrakeMarshall - This guy is really cool. 6. @xinoehp512 - ??????, nice RP though. 7. @RoyalBeeMage - Likely village. 8. @The Unknown Order - Likely village. 9. @CadCom - A lil sus. That's my current legacy of reads with no context, have a nice day. <CadCom, Xino, Coffee> or something liek that for PoE.

Personally I think in this landscape it's highly likely that the evils were parked on a side train.

Well then At first blush I'm surprised by the number of one-off votes made in the last few hours of the cycle, given the context tentatively going to reaffirm village reads on TUO + RBM maybe the C-names are actually the evil ones here tbhhh but I don't want to sell any tunnels I want to go home and rethink my life

edit?: ok but I want to village read Aet's interaction with Ash rn :thonk: I agree that an RBM vote is counterproductive right now, in that it's not very informative plus I think it's less likely to be a hit than random chance due to the generally low tempo surrounding the formation of wagons today. I don't think I agree that TUO talking about self-pressing is inherently suspicious, I'm actually inclined to give TUO some slight credit for being conscientious about the possibility of self-pres and then actually committing to not doing it (although the proof is in the pudding as they say: if TUO shows up with a self-pres vote at the last second, I would most emphatically not be amused ...but like if TUO is dipping and not showing up again until after rollover, then I'm inclined to read this as tentatively village) Would you say either of those things describe your own vote?

But see, it's not that you refused to share role info, it's how you did it. Again, plenty of people told me to bugger off in LG96 who weren't evil. I actually think just going "no I don't think so, go bother someone else" without feeling any pressing need to justify it or distract me with shading is generally somewhat village indicative. I'll also say that while you're free not to tell me anything about your role, breadcrumbing a Very Special Role without hardclaiming is not something I place much faith in. Does Coffeecat's vote count as RVS then, in your opinion? Tunneling on A-names is a meme but also is it really just me being irrational when the A-names keep acting suspicious you must see it too with that Ashbringer vote, admit it, we are cut from the same cloth More seriously, there's my outstanding read of you, and I think evil!Ashbringer is slightly more willing to lurk like this than town!Ashbringer and that the Ashbringer of this game fits the bill so far. Aeoryi is complicated but probably not actually in my sights right now. That is all.

wow same hat!

Alright let's get down to business. To defeat the huns. My current vote is for Aeternum. Why I'm not voting on TUO or RBM: The day has been remarkably low tempo thus far. I realize that "nobody's defending this person" has IKYK, but I'd contend that this is a situation that's far less susceptible to IKYK: more than just a lack of overt defense, the current state of the vote feel downright apathetic, and that's a lot harder to fake imo. I think the most likely explanation is that TUO and RBM are just both village, and I'll run with that for now. Given the pacing of the game, it is likely that this issue should be revisited tomorrow. Why I'm voting for Aeternum: I find the contents of our PM suspicious. While I can respect not wanting to exchange information in PMs, the way they went about it rubs me the wrong way. If you'll forgive a bit of history, I think LG96 is relevant here. I PMed a bunch of people asking for info in that game, and elim!TJ very quickly shaded me for it. Contrast with village!Archer in the same game, who a little later on turned down a scheme that would definitely have given the village more information, but did it in a way that was quite villagery. Or contrast with the many villagers who told me to get lost when I asked for their private information but didn't try to spin that into shade, I guess. I have feelings:tm: about this post. Like, on the one hand, this is kinda undermining previous votes and telling us not to read too much into it, which feels like deflecting responsibility. On the other hand, it demonstrates an awareness of the problem with the TUO and RBM wagons, but very little interest in fixing it. It's not really a big deal, but Aet pushing back on my theorizing the A-names are evil is very slightly noteworthy. Or at least, neither of the other A-players apparently felt the need to do so anywhere. If we treat this like a really crummy bargain-bin reaction test, Aet is more defensive than the norm. But this point is caveated because it might just be that Aet is more active than those other people, and I'd really rather not suspect somebody for being active in the thread. (I will note though that I somewhat expected it would get a little bit of a rise out of evil!Aeo and the absence of any such reaction is a bit noteworthy, although it might boil down to playstyle changes on Aeo's part ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) discuss edit: If I had to pick between TUO and RBM, I think I'd choose RBM at the moment. However, I reiterate that I'd currently prefer neither of those options. I think the most likely is that neither of those are hits.

Because Kas has cursed me for my hubris and my work is never finished

Deal, you're on Three (3) all-natural relatively spike-free chocolate chip cookies Ok but hear me out What if everyone whose name starts with an A is non-village-aligned Kas made all of the A-names elims or third party just because he enjoys my suffering

I bet the hello gang contains at most 1 evil.

Relve was on the hunt for a Scadrian plant. There was just one slight problem. He wasn't quite sure how those differed from regular plants. He vaguely remembered someone saying that Scadrian plants looked a little like Shin plants, but that wasn't helpful insofar as he needed to tell apart Shin and Scadrian plants. Bah. What did he look like, a storming plant expert?? He was not. He was in fact the station's solitary barkeep. Still, the station's hydroponics bay wasn't very far, on account of how it was next to the kitchen. Maybe the folks around there could help? They probably knew the difference between a rockbud and a plain old rock, at least, which was more than Relve could say on most days. He jogged down the hall, following the signs, which glowed a soft green from Stormlight-infused gemstones. They would keep on glowing for a long time, so long as the station's power didn't cut out. A miniature perpendicularity, if you'd believe it. It wasn't exactly free Stormlight, but as long as the engineers did their job nobody else had to worry about it. On a smaller vessel, the same perpendicularity might enable travel in addition to just keeping the lights on, but the Fourth Bridge was far too massive for that, of course. But how did a Scadrian plant even get on board? They don't exactly just grow out in space... Do they? Relve narrowly avoided bumping into another crewmember, too lost in his thoughts to look where he was going. "Hey, look where you're going!" he yelled after them. At last, he arrived in hydroponics. He banged on the door. "Hey, anybody in there? I have some serious questions about taxonomy." It's also not a pipe.

ceci n'est pas une drill

sir joe is obviously in a bush, not in a trenchcoat

Sure I'll do it But only because you assented to let us throw people out of airlocks

I stand by not wanting to touch Stick/Aeternum, but I should've thought of the Oracle angle Pretending like you randed Kelsier is probably the best thing you could've done in that situation yeah --- re: game thoughts I think this game worked decently well overall, I mean ONUW is a formula that works If there's one bone I'd pick it's that, is conversion actually a good thing for the elims in this setup? because the convert usually doesn't know they're a convert, and therefore usually doesn't know to try to help team evil from the elims perspective, all it does is adds an extra player who makes them lose if they die, which is bad for them, no? honestly, I think it's not a problem if the roles are generally more helpful to the village, because they need to be helpful to the village in order to give the village a legitimate shot at guessing right in a single day (D1 votes in ordinary games don't enjoy a very high hit rate) but I dunno if there's one thing I'd change it's that maybe I'd make the Ministry Leader's ability inform the Ministry Worker that they're an elim now but generally good game good setup

same hat I was gonna at least answer Kas' question but then I went to sleep anyways glad it worked out

when I'm using copperplate it's all caps even when it isn't it's entirely possible that there's a convert, but afaik they wouldn't *know* they're a convert in most situations, so my hot take is we should just ignore it I am made of spikes, but I can try my best not to spike the pizza

It's the Ministry Leader and Ministry Seeker, assuming we're talking about non-jester roles. Enjoy your pizza! (edit: is it just me or do spoilers inside of quotes render kinda weirdly)

well, they theoretically could both be elims, or they could both be jesters but yeah that's about right I think

As an aside, I'll note that I have literally fakeclaimed Troublemaker before as a villager in a different one night game. The fact that TUO did that isn't intrinsically suspicious, it's the way he's gone about it that pings me as very not village. And, heck, if he really is on our team, then he's the hazekiller and he can take a shot to win this for the village if we vote him out. Honestly I'm okay with that world. He's probably not, though. See, I kinda think I might believe you. Which further justifies me trying to vote out TUO! I feel like the main world where this doesn't work is if you and Stick are both Ministry, leaving TUO as one of the jester types. Which, is possible, but I choose not to put as much stock in that world. Vote Tally Stick. (2): Kasimir, RoyalBeeMage The Unknown Order (2): DrakeMarshall, Stick. Aeternum (1): Aeternum Note that a tied vote is actually probably a bad thing tbh. If one of these is a jester, they can self-vote right at the end of the day and make us lose. Maybe it's too early to be worrying about that, but. Something to keep in mind as the day winds down.

Here's the list of roles in play, it's not in the main rules post, but CadCom shared it when signups were closed. Naturally, you shouldn't vote Aeternum if that'd make you lose, yes I wouldn't expect you to do otherwise. A few things to clarify: The Coffee/TUO claim contradiction has been resolved. TUO retracted the Hemalurgic Troublemaker claim. Thus, Coffee is the only one claiming that role, and is probably just village. TUO is now claiming a role that either doesn't exist or conflicts with Aeoryi's existing claim, which he never previously tried to counterclaim. Either way, it seems quite unlikely that his claim is truthful. TUO is not a villager. It is possible that TUO is Kelsier (or Kandra), but it is similarly posible that Stick is one of those. The main challenge before us is that we need to somehow judge whether to vote for Stick or TUO. Neither is town, but either could be Kelsier (or Kandra). That's my assessment of the situation, at least.

don't worry I gotchu fam, you're definitely evil case 1) you have the role you started out with, which you have said is evil case 2) you have the role that Stick started with, which Stick has said is evil, and there's not much reason for Stick to say that if she started as a villager so yes you should be trying to play antivillage right now, get on that! hope this helps (edit: ok more seriously, yeah I don't think there's a good way for you or I to determine which evil role you now have, which is a bit of a conundrum for all involved) useful rules note #5 - rogue hazekiller straight up isn't in the distro for this game