hoser

I fear the infusion of politics and interpretation into these boards. Although I indulge, if I offend anyone, please accept my apologies, as I don't want to offend. I wish the history of my native country were as good as that of the Alethi moving to the Shattered Plains. Make a peace treaty that you intend to honor w/the current residents? Not so much. The current residents initiated the war? Not so much. As far as I can tell, the reduction (if any) in Chasmfiends doesn't seem to have been a factor in changing the tactics of the war.

One completely unsupported theory of mine is that the Shin system works because of a sacred cadre of Honorblade holders. If the low-status fighters ever try to overturn the social order, the Honorblades put them in their place. His own POV seems to say that he trained w/Kummar (which doesn't use weapons, so gets around the low status thing) before he was given the Honorblade as part of his punishment. I imagine he could have been one of the hypothetical sacred cadre or just been trained w/the sword after he was sentenced for his blasphemy. There is WoB that he was a respected member of Shin society before his blasphemy, IIRC, so I agree that he wouldn't have been a normal fighter. I can imagine members of the hypothetical sacred cadre were respected. I believe that he was well trained, which implies that there is a group of people proficient w/the Honorblades.

This is what Hoid wrote: This fits what WEZ313 says above. I assume this to mean that Hoid sent them to the Purelake with his false trail. Upvote for "fishy"! I believe there is WoB that the fish really are magical and are linked to spren.

The facts I'm aware of: Mraize says that Heleran sought out the Skybreakers Hoid met w/Heleran before visiting Shallan and her father. Hoid knows where and when he needs to be to make a difference, but doesn't know what he'll find or what he has to do. Heleran had Shardblade and later Plate Shallan's father commented about Heleran getting the blade from his "new friends" Shallan's father was with the Ghostbloods. Likely the obvious explanations are true Heleran may have been with the Ghostbloods, but then joined the Skybreakers, getting the Shards from them. Heleran committed wanton slaughter, but didn't seem abnormally fast or glowing to Kaladin, so he likely didn't have a spren bond. I still have questions: Mraize said Heleran sought out the Skybreakers. Did he find them? Did he find people who wanted to join the Skybreakers and try to kill Amaram to prove himself to the real Skybreakers? Seeking is not necessarily finding. Nalan/Darkness seems to operate quite differently than Heleran did when he attacked Amaram. I am not certain at all that Nalan was behind the attempted hit on Amaram. I also think that Mraize would be happy to mislead by implication or outright falsehood. Why did Hoid meet w/Heleran? To inspire him to attempt the assassination? To dissuade him? Some other matter entirely?

Kaladin does have a conversation w/Adolin where he advises Adolin to tell Shallan his thoughts and/or feelings towards her. IIRC, it's implied that Kaladin regrets not having done so w/Tarah, which could be the different failure (reticence).

Exactly. The whirlpool would be to the west of the Valley of Truth. If the Origin is Greenwich, the whirlpool would be on the International Date Line and the landmass is all on one hemisphere.

The brilliant Satsuoni developed a highstorm model here. Ignorantly summarizing, the idea is that the Highstorms are like the blast wave of an explosion centered on the Origin. So the front of the wave is a circle, with the opposite side going East from the Origin. The whirlpool of the Wandersail story (if there really is one) could be opposite the Origin where the attenuated remnants of the Highstorms meet. Those remnants could push water on the surface toward that point from all directions and the whirlpool could be where the water descends to flow the other way further down.

I really don't get it. No offense intended, and no, I didn't downvote the post. What was wrong with what she did to her father? I see him as a rabid dog (apologies to rabid dogs everywhere) often in thrall to Odium that needed to be put down. As soon as he committed premeditated murder, she dealt w/him as needed to be done. While it would have been better if she had just sliced him up w/Pattern before he crippled Balat, she does have her own issues. She saved all her brothers but Heleran at various times, and was pretty straight w/them about it. Her work w/the deserters and slaves seems brilliant, heroic, transformative and straightforward. She is courting Adolin, but she seems genuinely attracted and has been honest about her ulterior motives. The repeated wisecracks about people's odor are somewhat tiresome, but I consider that a minor issue. She has been leading the family for years. I would be awed by my sister as a Radiant, too. People seem to be attracted to her, as we see w/the deserters, Adolin, Kaladin, the slaves, Sebarial, Jasnah, the Ghostbloods, Dalinar, Navani the sailors and even Tyn. While she has gained an assertiveness greater than she had before, I don't understand why her brothers would strongly dislike her, other than the residual effects of Odium-contamination. Yes, there will certainly be drama and many characters will die. Those deaths will be related to the decisions that important people, including Shallan, make. I think these problems will be the result of the horrible situation Roshar and her family finds itself in, rather than Shallan being an arrogant despicable person. Shallan did alienate Tvlakv and the trade caravan guy, but they both benefited greatly from her actions.

While I find this discussion fascinating, I am notably ignorant and will refrain from commenting. I am drawn instead to other measures of Ivory's morality. At the time he started bonding with Jasnah, she was in the middle of arranging an assassination. That seems morally questionable, to say the least. I think he must have been aware of her activities and approved. Subscribing to the theory that the orders and spren on the bottom half of the surgebinding table (with female Heralds) are more Cultivation related, it seems to me that cultivation includes activities like pruning, thinning and weeding. I expect the more Cultivation-related orders to be more pragmatic and ruthless as a result.

Kaladin has responsibilities so I think he has to resolve the situation in his hometown quickly and, as a Windrunner, he has to protect everybody including those he hates. While there are infinite interesting scenarios, I don't think he has time to dawdle, nor can he leave things in an unprotected state. Given those premises, I see multiple scenarios. Things are being as well run at home as he can imagine (unlikely, and not worth the buildup Brandon has done): He reunites w/his parents, leaves for the capital after passing on the news. Things are being poorly managed, leaving people unprotected: He is obligated to make sure things are better organized, so he reveals himself, takes over, and reorganizes things. As he is essentially the "boots on the ground" in Alethkar, he will need to reorganize the whole country and Dalinar has asked him to look into the rioting in the capital anyway. The Voidbringers attack while he is figuring things out (this is my favorite scenario): He reveals himself as a Windrunner mid-battle and saves most of the town. He then reorganizes things and heads toward the capital. I don't see how he can dispense summary justice given his oaths. I don't think he has time to wait around for a trial even if the local situation allows it. I don't think Roshone did anything illegal in having Tien drafted by Amaram or marrying Laral, so I don't even see a rationale for going after Roshone legally. While I can imagine him protecting Laral from an abusive situation, I don't see a romance occurring. Consider Alethkar as a whole. The country has essentially lost a lot of it's labor force and been invaded by scattered groups of Voidbringers. I imagine that the humans need to gather in strongpoints, organize and deal with the invaders. Only when (if?) the Voidbringers are dealt with can people safely reinhabit the countryside. Conceivably people will need to abandon parts of Alethkar altogether. What else is Odium up to? My guess is that the Voidbringers are just the first wave of problems that will beset Alethkar and Roshar. People will be hit by crises faster than they can really deal w/them.

This is not in any way definitive, but ... There are multiple hints that the coming Desolation is what caused the spren to return, which seems to be a precondition for knights. So I would say the coming desolation triggers the knights. But what triggers the Desolation? The death rattles, which Mr. T says started around when Gavilar started exploring the Shattered Plains and are supposed to be linked to one of the Unmade, suggest that it was Odium's timetable. Gavilar told the Parshendi that he was going to do something, then later told Szeth that it was "too late," suggesting some action he might have initiated. Did Pattern start working w/Shallan before the death rattles started?

Interesting thoughts. or: 4. Exactly what he says. He needs a crime to justify his assassinations, but he really wants to kill surgebinders because he thinks they will bring a desolation. 5. He is corrupted (whether he knows it or not) and is serving Odium (one of the epigraphs suggests that there is a traitor somewhere).

As Moogle suggests, they may be from off-planet. With the Vorin mythology about being chased off the Tranquilline Halls, they could be from the Tranquilline Halls. Braize is also apparently known as Damnation, but could it once have been the Halls? Could the Halls have been on the third planet in the system? Were they on Roshar? Could they have been off-system?The Heralds are apparently required to return to Braize to be tortured (presumably by Odium) as part of the Oathpact. If they die, they return to Braize automagically. It seems inhumane of Honor to require his champions to be constantly tortured, so maybe Braize wasn't always that bad. There are a few references to a Proving Day. I think it must have been a contest where the Heralds proved their worthiness to become Heralds. One scenario could be: Adonalsium invests Roshar (before the Shards broke off) and it develops spren-symbiotic species including greatshells and Listeners. People happy on the Tranquilline Halls (Braize) w/Honor and Cultivation. Odium comes along and convinces some disgruntled people to accept his investiture ( the unmade) and cause problems periodically (precurser Desolations?) for H+C's people. H+C each pick 5 champions of their gender at proving day to give investiture. Honor enters into the Oathpact w/them and gives them the Honorblades. Even w/the Heralds' help, H+C's people are forced to leave, going to Roshar. The investiture of H+C and the thought of their people create Nahel-Bond spren on Roshar. Odium and his Unmade follow and get back to desolating periodically. After some time, Odium creates spren that make Voidbringers of Listeners. The Nahel-Bond spren help form the Knights Radiant, who make surviving the Desolations much more likely and bring relative peace to Roshar (ten stable kingdoms instead of entire countries being wiped out). The Heralds reach the end of their tethers (there could also be skulduggery involved) and mostly quit. This is one theory. There are probably more others than there are people participating in the 17th Shard. HTH

Building onto Moogle's list, I can see another couple of possibilities or alternate explanations (which I am not sure how to number): 4 or 1b) That their non-existence causes something really good, like, say, Odium's defeat or Honor's being reformed. 5 or 2b) There is an inconsistency in the oaths (which would have to be an inconsistency in the first oath, as that is the only oath for Lightweavers). A dilemma, where one must do something, but all actions lead to violating the oaths. 6 or 3b) The Knights were tricked into quitting (perhaps by a Herald serving Odium). edit: speelinge

What he said.

As you wish: Other interesting things about the Recreance: The Knights very deliberately left certain invested objects behind in a way that people could get to them: Soulcasters, Plate and Blades. The healing fabrials and possibly others were not left to people. Why only certain fabrials? The Knights could certainly have put the blades and plate somewhere harder to get to. They could also have escaped. Why the public display that resulted in near total fatalities? The in-world book titled "The Way of Kings" and the dawnchant were preserved at Vanrial. Was that part of a Radiant plan? We have WoB that Honor witnessed the Heralds quitting, but there is a running debate about whether he witnessed the Recreance. The Recreance vision argues for him witnessing it. There is an epigraph that seems like a Radiant lamenting about the absence of the "Shard of my soul" which suggests that he could have created the vision using precognition. Does the Stormfather's upset about the Knights killing their spren mean that he was around at the Recreance? Does that mean that Honor was splintered already? The Knights must have met to communicate about the "wicked thing." They apparently agreed to the public display we saw. Their spren would have likely been at these meetings where their deaths were decided. Did the spren agree, force or disagree with the conclusion? If they disagreed, why is there no record of it? Syl and Pattern can appear before and communicate w/anybody they want. If some number of spren had protested the Recreance, it seems like it would have been noted. The spren could at least have done it to inform the remaining and future Nahel bond spren. Dalinar is a Bondsmith bonded to the Stormfather. He and Gavilar may have both been somewhat bonded to the Stormfather simultaneously. Does that mean that the pre-Recreance Bondsmiths were bonded directly to Honor? What communications did the Knights have w/Honor? Did they know when Honor was splintered? Did they know that the Heralds lied about winning when they quit? Did they discuss the Recreance? The Knights could have left objects and/or information at Urithiru. It could be discovered soon. Nale (assuming he was the one who retrieved his blade) and the Skybreakers (assuming they were the ones who did not participate in the Recreance) could have tampered with or taken anything afterwards.

There is a long-dead thread about the Recreance that may be of interest. There is good information and speculation even though it predates WoR. Zas unearthed a quote which more or less contradicts this notion in this post. There was also a significant amount of time between when the Heralds packed it in and the Recreance if you credit the following quote from tWoK. I find this theory to be wonderfully creative. While it does explain some things, it also presumes something about the fate of one of the orders that is, as far as I can tell, unsupported and seems to contradict some of the little evidence we do have.

Just a minor nit: Ialai, Sadeas' wife's name is symmetrical. It is blasphemous, but not so much that it isn't done, apparently. IIRC, Sadeas mentions that it is one of his initial attractions.

On Occam's shaving methodology:my understanding is similar to what I read on Wikipedia. It is a principle to be used in the absence of certainty. So,no,I don't consider it a fallacy. Do you have any support for your definition, particularly the part about the conclusions being regarded as true? On Renarin's being cursed as the result of someone else's interaction with the Night watcher: there is a long-dead thread about Dalinar's boon and curse. In that thread,it was speculated that Renarin could have been affected. I appreciate your passion for our little obsession. I still think that Renarin's visions are the result of his Radiance, as I think the prohibition on future sight will turn out to be nuanced. Thanks to you I will consider the alternatives and try to write more inclusively and carefully.

First, the mea culpas: I said that we know that Renarin hasn't been to the Nightwatcher. That was wrong. I appreciate you calling me out on it. Thank you. I used "we" when referring to the consequence of learning about a hypothetical second magical influence on Renarin. I can't speak for anyone but myself. The use of "we" implies grouping and exclusion and all sorts of bad things. That was wrong. I appreciate you calling me out on it. Thank you. On Occam's Razor: Do you really mean "fallacy?" I don't think of it as erroneous, as much as an imperfect algorithm. When the evidence is ambiguous, contradictory or unclear, I can just stop and say "I don't know for sure" or I can speculate. I have no problem w/using Occam's Razor as one of my methods when I choose to speculate. What I need to be better at is identifying my methodology for reaching conclusions and not stating them as fact (see mea culpas above) or considering them to have been proven. TBH, I wouldn't use Occam's Razor to speculate if I had a better method. Do you have a perfect method? As for the rest of the paragraph past the word fallacy: I don't get it. Did I ever say that "Mr. Sanderson will always choose to have the simplest, most obvious explanation be true?" It looks to me like you are trying to "reductio ad absurdum," which is a reasonable technique unless one misrepresents the argument one is intending to refute. Misrepresenting the opposing side seems to me to turn reductio ad absurdum into straw man argumentation. Navani even uses Occam's Razor in WoR. As an imperfect method, it should lead to some amount of correct and incorrect conclusions in both fiction and real life. On Renarin visiting the Nightwatcher (or his seizures being a consequence of Dalinar visiting the Nightwatcher): I know nothing. None of what I speculate here is factual. I don't believe the Nightwatcher would curse Renarin as a consequence of Dalinar or anyone else's visit. He seems to have missed nearly all military training, suggesting that he had the seizures from a young age (before 8 or so). I doubt most mothers would bring a young child to be blessed/cursed by the Nightwatcher. It's not that I didn't think about it, it's that I just dismissed it as absurd. It still seems unlikely, but now that I know that at least one intelligent person considers it reasonable, I am happy to consider it a possibility going forward. On using the word "we" and implications: Please call me out when my phrasing is loose and seems to discount your point of view. I appreciate that. Literally "phrasing it like that implies that until we have confirmation of a second source, we should not speculate that there might be one" is a fallacy. Logically A->B does not imply ~A->~B. At a less rigorous level, you are absolutely right. My error was in dismissing the possibility that Renarin had visited the Nightwatcher. That assumption led to me phrasing that problematically. You are right and I apologize. If I make a similar error in the future, I would prefer to have my assumptions called out directly, as in "Is it a known fact that Renarin hasn't visited the Nightwatcher?" " Can you direct me to where in the text it states that Ranarin hasn't seen the Nightwatcher" or "Even without any evidence of a second magical intervention in Renarin's life, I think that his visions are the result of something else. Are you saying that I'm wrong to do so?" Drawing unsupported implications from my statements and showing them to be absurd makes it harder for me to see where my incorrect assumptions or unsupported deductive leaps have occurred. Thanks for caring enough to discuss.

@Ooklalhoo'Elin: I like to try to figure out how the world behind the story works. When we read the annotations in a decade or three, we will absolutely know things. Until then, I like to speculate based on sparse clues. Some of the techniques I use are Occam's Razor and generalizing based on limited examples. I understand (and I hope most readers do also) that my speculations are not proven and may be invalidated by new information. I also err by stating my assumptions as fact on occasion. I often make mistakes and even miss information which would invalidate my speculation. I can understand that you might find it upsetting. I am sorry if it bothers you. Here is something that bothers me. I don't like it when people ascribe positions to me that I don't hold. Twice, I see you ascribing a level of certainty to my speculations that I don't claim. This seems like a straw man argument. When you argue against my certainty and claim of absolute knowledge, you are not arguing with me, but rather with your own straw man. Please consider the following: I wrote: You attributed: While it was an assumption that Renarin had not visited the Nightwatcher and I did state it as knowledge (mea culpa), my hope was that it was clear that I was using Occam's Razor to associate Renarin's visions with his budding Radiance. While I appreciate having my assumption about Renarin not visiting the Nightwatcher challenged (by the way, do you really think he did?), the essence of Occam's Razor is to discount things we know nothing about. I do not, nor do I claim to know literally every possible source of arcane phenomena. When you attribute that to me and argue against it, I get distracted from the interesting substantive discussion I would rather have with you. I wrote: You attributed: That is not what I said. I cannot compel you. I don't want to compel you. You are free to consider whatever you want. In fact, I should not have said "we," as all readers are free to not consider whether the visions come from the hypothetical second magical intervention. I assumed that a prince (4th in the line of succession, I believe) and a frail youth would not have disappeared for at least the month that I believe it would have taken to visit the Nightwatcher without people knowing about it. Renarin has clearly researched the Nightwatcher, however, and his father and brother could have been training or fighting at the Shattered Plains while he was in Kholinar. Until you explain your logical chain, I can't understand where it diverged from mine. Misquoting me, and arguing against your misquotation, is just confusing to me.

Honor does say that to speak of what is to come is forbidden. He also speaks of the coming everstorm. He also sees the future, but not as well as Cultivation. Truthwatchers are one of the orders most associated with Cultivation if you subscribe to the theory that the top of the surgebinding chart is more Honor-Related (with male Heralds) and the bottom is more Cultivation-related (with female Heralds). Shards have had precognitive powers in other parts of the Cosmere and the precognitive abilities have been imparted to the magic-users of that Shard. Based on intent, I believe that Cultivation and Odium would be better at predicting the future than Honor. So it makes total sense to me that Truthwatchers would have some precognitive abilities. I don't know how to reconcile that with the ban on speaking of the future, but it seems possible as my grasp of Vorin theology is not very good. Vorinism also seems to have strayed from Honor's intent over the millenia since he was splintered Um, yes. In fact, I quoted your post. Your analogy to Lift makes no sense to me. Here we have Lift, with two distinct magical investments producing distinct effects. Compare to Renarin, where we have a single known magical investment and only two magical effects. I consider the healing of his eyesight to be a minor effect of being invested, much like the Lopen's arm regrowing. This leaves only one magical effect: the visions (unless you think putting oneself in dangerous situations and spazzing out is the magical power of Truthwatchers). To me, the logical deduction is that the visions are related to his surges. Yes, it is not absolutely proven. If we learn of another magical intervention affecting Renarin, we will have to consider whether the visions come from that.

Please accept my apologies for my impolite tone in advance. Renarin's visions seem particularly relevant to being a Truthwatcher whose Radiant ability is that he sees. So not only does the ability relate to the name of the order, but he claims that the seeing is the ability of the order. While I believe that there must be limitations to the "seeing," it seems totally related. Given that we don't know what he actually sees, it is hard to judge perfectly. It is also relevant that we know that Renarin has not visited the Nightwatcher. The only magical event we know is his relationship w/his spren. Occam's Razor and a logical connection does not seem like an "incredibly flimsy justification". I am curious about the explanations in the text that run counter to this association. Please enlighten me.

Excellent point about Shallan. As for the Shin blade users: This. And Szeth was well trained and familiar w/the windrunner vocabulary. For me, that points to a sacred cadre of people training w/these weapons over the millenia. Hence using them for training at least.

As always, I know nothing! Capabilities of Heralds vs Radiant vs Shamans is a very interesting question. I believe the Heralds have some innate investiture benefits (long life, at least). I believe the Radiants get other benefits from their spren (Why make a fabrial to do what a simple communication w/your spren would tell you?). As Pathfinder points out, Szeth seems to have only used the windrunning surges and infusion from the Honorblade, but he may not have been trained in other abilities. The Shamans will clearly have access to all the main surges including truthwatching, but we have reason to doubt that they get the ancillary benefits (Kaladin's unconscious fighting, Shallan's visual recall, ...). I think Truthwatching will have strong limitations, because it would otherwise make the story unfun. The Radiants did not arrive until after the Midnight Essence. With complete precog, they could have been waiting. Wit knows where and when he needs to be, but not what he will find or what needs to be done. Atium only provides a small window forward. All these are ways to limit the utility of precognition. I believe that the Radiants had a plan when they recreanted (I know, not a real word). They clearly chose to pass on only certain fabrials, as we know they had the healing fabrials, but nobody except Nale seems to have access to them. It is not a stretch to think that they had other fabrials and fabrial technology that they did not pass on. Ookla, you are correct to draw the discussion back to the thread purpose, "How would the Shamans retrieve a blade?" Truthwatching - kind of a blank slate at this point, but I don't think it will be able to do something that specific. Detection of investiture usage - We didn't see Szeth detecting investiture usage, but maybe they could do it. They could use an unknown fabrial, I suppose. At this point there are a number of sources, so it would be a noisy procedure. Actually, if they could do this, they would know that there are Heralds and proto-radiants running around. Herald allies - maybe, but Nale doesn't seem to be working w/them and declaring Szeth Truthless when he was actually truthful suggests a lack of heraldic guidance. Rumor - the discovery of an Honorblade would be big news, but someone keeping it as a secret shardblade or an accidental loss would go uncovered. Automatic retrieval - as pointed out above, it didn't happen. Further, there would be no need to retrieve the sword if it came back to you automagically. Spies - I imagine the Shamans could have spies, but how would you track Szeth? Monitoring - If they could monitor Szeth, they would already know that the Radiants are back. After eliminating everything else I can think of, I can only imagine a posse of Shamans armed w/Honorblades and some detection ability (possibly related to Truthwatching, despite my doubt above).