Amanuensis
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Striker is thirty for ties aha At a certain point however, I will need to entertain the reality that he’s open wolfing If so, very bold and I approve. It's pocketing me so far too
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Ninja'd by Kas while editing post... Okay so I found TJ's D1 posts and it kinda reinforces my gut but in the opposite way of how I remembered. TJ gave a few Village reads (much easier for elims to give reasons for Village reads than to give reasons for false elim reads), defended Devo by saying their Experience vote was odd for Devo but not e!Devo odd, and said they were V-reading Archer initially but wanted to consider my case on Archer more. Despite all that, TJ ended up voting Thaid, who we know was LHF Village, for the exact reasons I pointed out in my doc. I actually found that post distancing indicative if anything. Promises to reevaluate partner later but is not willing to vote partner right now. Goes for the easiest misyeet possible for reasons that a Villager originally brought up. Also means TJ works on a team with Devo, who I still think would have bussed Archer if she had a role + to shake off some heat. Yeah I'm comfortable with a TJ vote until TJ does something overtly Village. Also ninja'd by Mat ED1T: @Matrim's Dice the issue I have with TJ putting Devo in his elim reads is that he said it was weird but not exactly e!weird. I feel that's either e!TJ hedging on partner or Village led misyeet. Plus in an E/E world, Devo could have said ahead of time that she was going to vote Archer, which means this could be e!TJ planning to climb down from an e!Devo read after the Archer flip.
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Spicy if true, but it could have pre-emptive. I'm confident that TJ's vote came after my wall to Archer and... wasn't TJ's early posts sorta pro Archer? I personally believe an elim would more likely sheild a teammate when they don't believe their death is a foregone conclusion, otherwise they'd get found shortly after. By the time the Archer yeet gained enough ground, most elims would probably go for the bus. So if anything, I need to go back to reread D1 (ew backreading), but you pointing that out makes me more sus of TJ, not less.
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Idk, my instincts say Tani is Village for it, but it depends if she felt like she had to bring it up to shield a teammate. I'm down to vote TJ. Their D1 vote was classic save dying teammate and I've yet to see anything that leads me to believe he's Village this game. Mat's trying a bit more so I'll give him some more room to work, regardless of his alignment. Despite Araris voting Striker (and Striker baiting with his posts, which I approve of as a gambit from either alignment :p), my current read of the situation is V/V. Will say it's possible that E!Araris came around on Bort since it didn't seem like that misyeet was taking off, but I do feel Araris is pure this game? He seems more straightforward and honest (less intentionally evil) if that makes sense? Idk people tbh I'm just trying to have a chill game and go light on the analysis and follow my heart. PoE rn is something like <TJ, Devo, Illwei, Mat, Baker>. I don't love Illwei's pop-ins tbh. I'm very surprised she hasn't done any tiered readslists or any real solving. Just little comments here and there. Idk if it's cause IRL stuff but I don't feel Illwei's heart is in the game. I hope that changes soon, regardless of her alignment. I'm probably wrong about someone I'm village leaning tho. I always worry that one of the more active players is elim and nudging the village in the wrong direction, but rn that's basically just Kas, which I'm not willing to entertain yet. It should be clear if he's elim eventually.
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Nothing I've done this game reeks of Hyena I kept ignoring this statement from Mat because it comes from a place of paranoia and not logic =/ but fair enough TJ, it's worked to switch Mat back to your side so I won't fight it. I did my best this game and I've finally voted the last elim so I can die knowing that I was right and that's all I need If anything has changed, it's that I've finally had the Eureka moment I needed. This is C3 of MR56 when I realized Archer had lied to us from the start and needed to die. Not even Kas trusted me then because I was "pushing too hard," and I was pushing too hard because I was confident. I am confident now, and this is how my confidence manifests Since I'm no longer convinced that Orlok is on a team with TJ, I am fine with this. Village can still win via RNG (unless Veteran!TJ) and even if we lose, it's not my fault. TJ played excellently, so it is well deserved I'm just glad this game came down to the wire because those games are a lot more fun than one-sided stomps. Anyway, I've said my piece. I've done my part. My watch has ended. Can't wait to finally be in the dead doc I haven't been in a game for this many turns for a very long time and it's been weird. Sweet, sweet release
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IIRC, JNV mostly just gave their thoughts on like, general strategy things we've been discussing (as opposed to analysis like Exp was) - I'll have to peruse the doc soon and let you know more detailed specifics, but thus far I would put JNV in like a Null+ tier based on thread participation so far, or Mild Village if weighing the calculations they ran for distro and + general tonal vibes + assumption that Archer was the only Teoish elim. I could see an e!JNV reality currently just based on the fact it's D2 now and they haven't done much that's stood out to me. I do remember a D1 or N1 post that literally made me giggle for like 2 minutes tho (something about gobbling data like a super turkey) so idk. IIRC, JNV and Archer didn't interact much in doc either, which could suggest partnership, but again... I'll have to go through all that later today since I haven't slept yet and it's about that time now I also should begin driving discussion again since it seems things have kinda stagnated after getting Archer out D1. I'll admit, I've been somewhat lazy because of the unexpected catch + I kinda hoped I would be dead + I've been focusing more on the MR. Genuinely sad Exp died since he was putting in a lot of effort and I was kinda happy to let someone else take control for a game. I still need to decide how I feel about Matrim, Devo, and TJ. @Bort too, I guess, since he's not been around for a bit and I can only let players slank for so long before I start wondering about their alignment @Araris Valerian how are things on your end btw, I kinda feel good about your slot this game so am curious if you have anything insightful to add, or just some elim instincts pinging on anyone? ED1T: @The Baker I'm bored and your schitck amuses me so I'm going to ask you a few things: 1) If you had to describe your alignment (Diplomat or Disruptor) with a picture of bread, what would that picture be? 2) Is the bread (or how you use bread) capable of lying or misleading us? 3) Do you bake anything other than bread? Will your pictures in this game always be plain bread? How do you feel about bagels, croissants, and english muffins? How about naan? 4) How much should we realistically be reading into your bread pictures? Looking forward to your answers.
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I don't think the JNV kill was meant to get you caught. I think you were hoping that I would get voted out yesterday instead of TUN and you had to kill JNV since he was the biggest e!TJ pusher + consensus Village. I can only assume your plan was use your "e!Mat paranoia" post near the end of C5 as a springboard to reignite your Mat bussed Araris theory and get TUN on board with it. Orlok was always going to be a wildcard, but he very nearly got filtered out anyway, so you might have been hoping to just deal with a 3 player scenario instead of 4. Either way, after Mat and I consolidated, you had to commit to the JNV kill anyway because any other death would 100% result in you getting voted out today. The fact remains that e!me would never kill JNV before Mat because JNV would have voted along side me, whether that was on you or Orlok. Meanwhile, you could never convince JNV to vote with you, but you could convince Mat and Orlok like you are trying now. But yes, my voting record wasn't great. I did play a huge role in the C3 vote of Bort however, even if I didn't vote him in the end. Stick and I kept our votes on Orlok for as long as we did to see if Bort's partners would try to save him, but our bait was ignored. I don't know if Stick passed this info to Mat, but it's true. If you look at the last few of her posts, she said I would need to die next if Bort flipped Village - that's because I was pushing e!Bort a lot behind the scenes, but didn't want to let Bort's partners know we set up a trap. Every yeet since then has been clearing PoE, which was collectively agreed on. I did not want Xino yeeted C4 however, that one happened beyond my control; had TUN gone first, C5 would have been very different. The biggest thing was you trying to get Mat to vote me out just to prove Mat was Village. You didn't even suspect me, just wanted to "end your paranoia of Mat." I find it very hard to believe any Villager would risk misyeeting me when they don't even suspect me just in the off chance of proving someone they suspect is evil. You would just try to get me and others on board with yeeting Mat. If I'm wrong and it's just e!Orlok, then I will be genuinely surprised. But the more I think about e!you and the more I look back at everything that has happened, it just all makes a lot more sense. All I have left to say is very well played, friend. You lead me on a merry chase and made me believe I was crazy for even thinking you could be elim several times. It's been fun, even when it's been torture
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I actually forgot to check the Empire doc today, but they were around fairly often (a little less than Experience and I) and essentially the same JNV as always, personality wise. Why do you ask?
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Gah >> Okokok let me entertain this for a moment Does solo!e!Orlok come into today with a mega post like this to make sure he doesn't get voted today? Theoretically, he shouldn't care which of us he votes out, so I'd have expected e!Orlok to just make up a reason to follow Mat onto me or onto TJ. Possible there are no Veterans period, village or elim, and it's too risky for him to not put in some kind of analysis work to avoid further scrutiny? I do acknowledge this could be possible - and I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't love being right about Orlok pulling a QF59 repeat - but I really doubt it right now? That big analysis post felt genuine to me... No. I'm sorry TJ, but Mat and Orlok both have more concrete Village evidence going for them. I think you played an excellent game tonally, but your votes and pushes just don't line up. Personally, yes, I think you had to play a distinctly different game in order to not get caught like in LG83. Your team lost Araris suddenly on D1, and with just you and Bort, I think you had no choice but to play the long game. Bussing him would have made it weird if you didn't get NK'd by lylo, so you just sat by and let it happened to show indifference. You were failing to get the whole village on board with your Araris bus paranoia, so you had to start killing them one by one until just Mat was left, and by then he was already tunneling me. And it all nearly worked. Unfortunately the only kill you could make was JNV to win, and even then, it was a gamble, and it just led back to e!you anyway.
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Yeah, somewhat inconvenienced by the fact he only managed to do the first half of the game where I was still not in my element yet, but I'm clearing him for effort right now. Hopefully I won't regret that in the aftermath xD
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Okay wow that's a big wall, you weren't kidding Uhm okay let me unpack this, give me a few minutes... Don't worry, seriously, it happens to us all. For what it's worth, I very much appreciate the effort since I doubt e!you would do all this work when you could just have plopped a vote on me or TJ and called it a day. I've pretty much already reached the conclusion you're not a solo elim and that TJ is your only possible partner / needs to go first, but I'll read this under the assumption you're Village. Yeah TJ has given me town-feels but the conclusions and poor voting pattern / pushes is really what settles it for me. Too many side trains, too much spreading paranoia around the Araris voters. I'm basically convinced Archer was a fear kill to protect both Bort and TJ. Sorry I thought you were pulling a QF59 again =\ For context, I recently pinch hit for a 9 player MU game. I came into D2 knowing nothing and no one and I refused to backread until I had a really good reason. I did the same thing in that game that I did in here and it worked incredibly well - I shook up the game state enough with my pseudo-D1 that I managed to not only vote out an elim that day, but also find his deepwolf partner and get them coinshot that night, securing our victory in a single turn. It felt really good and I wondered if I could do something like that again in this game, but other than Bort (who you already began pushing) I've been following the wrong leads until now. I'm trying to find these posts since I don't think the #s match up but, let me do some digging. Found it! Okay C2 I came into the game and I posted this boi boy right here. The most important bits are my response to Archer's post. Yes, while I did adhere to the belief that the Araris wagon was pure, I had some tinfoil based on Archer controlling the narrative that Araris was the designated fang candidate. It crossed my mind that Archer was making too big leaps in logic and that it might have been indicative of elim agenda, probably to set up a Striker misyeet and an Orlok misyeet (he specifically sussed you for retracting your Stick vote and not voting Araris, which I found really weird and disagreed with at the time). Also, for the reasons stated in the bolded paragraph above, I was reading Striker as Village rather than elim based on AG8/QF59 experiences with e!him. Me bringing up that I'd have voted Archer over Striker had nothing to do with the fact that Archer was NK'd. It had to do with the fact that Archer was very nearly voted out. I was just being transparent about my thoughts because it would be weird for me not to express them. Before those flips, Archer was the only player I really believed could have been the busser for the above reasons, but once he died, I realized that it wasn't the case and went full in on believing in a pure Araris wagon. (At least until Mat nearly death tunneled me C4/C5 and I cracked). Sadly, even when I think I'm a very good villager, I do make mistakes every now and then xD like the fact I took TJ's side versus Archer at all. Anyway, thank you for doing this again Orlok, because it just confirms my belief in an e!TJ world. No more Orlok tinfoil. We got this boys. TJ
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FYI I'm making it my mission to confidently read Baker's alignment off Votes/bread pictures alone Right now I'm unironically leaning Village for them @The Baker yes or no question, have you played some form of Mafia/Werewolf before?
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Fair 'nuff. @Devotary of Spontaneity same question I asked Mat above; how do you feel about Mat and your third Fjorden? Do you think your doc might be uncompromised? If you had to guess which of the two is a mole, who would you say and why? Actually nope I've not thought about it at all cause, like, waste of mental energy? I'm definitely mentally noting down what people are open with, but speculating on unknowns is a distraction when my only goal is finding the elims The questions I'm asking Mat/Devo about this rn is an example of me doing that. I don't really care about the specifics as much as I do understanding how players view their doc mates. Does an elim try to blend? Do they try to push agenda? Does a townie show paranoia? Etc. I can usually get a half-decent feel off tone or projected direction of intent. Like I actually called Experience being Village after his... 2nd or 3rd line in our doc? And I think that might be part of what spooked Archer Exp just kept reinforcing it with effort
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Not every doc has claimed, no. Archer dumped the Teo doc on D1 (Me, JNV, and Sibling are left). I don't think it's wise to clear us all so honestly judge us by the merit of our posts, but I also don't think we are top suspects rn. Mat/Devo/+1 more appear to be Fjordel. Kas/Shadow are in an Empire together. Striker/Baker are in an Empire together. Pretty sure that's all the claims so far. Most importantly, we need to figure out if Devo self-prez bussed Archer D1 and if Matrim, TJ, or Striker voted Thaid to save Archer. @Devotary of Spontaneity my policy on self-pressing is that if a Villager cares enough to vote someone else to stay in the game, I expect them to put in work the next day to prove their alignment. You voted Archer, so I'm giving you more leeway than I am giving players who didn't vote Archer. Would be very curious to hear your thoughts after that flip. ED1T: @Matrim's Dice are you assuming you doc has no elims in it or do you think the 3rd person in your doc is more likely elim than Devo?
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They might've looked less bad from like, a not knowing for sure if I'm Village perspective? But from my PoV, it looked misrepresentative and reachy with multiple holes in logic + the conclusion was just wrong, so I had to decide if this was v!Archer being paranoid and pushing a bad yeet or e!Archer trying to keep me from becoming a loud village voice in thread and doc. I really thought it was the first too haha, but other people decided I was right and voted him out while I was sleeping haha My only regret is that I'm not an elim too because that would have been such a fun D1 gambit xD
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Weird =\ and sad My doc is basically just JNV and I now with Sibling's low-to-no activity. I'd actually have preferred Archer living for a few cycles to keep the doc interesting xD I was looking forward to doing more long term solving, but then he had to vote me for really bad reasons smh
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I kinda feel the same tbh. For some reason, I expect my first game versus e!Illwei to be very memorable. I hope you give me a good fight when that day comes So maybe the ranking is more like Tani > Orlok/Illwei > JNV/Sibling for most likely non-voting elims? TBH I'm willing to believe that Devo is Village. I acknowledge that her response to Experience was anomalous, as well as the fact that Archer tried shielding her by saying a mole being in our doc would mean the elims would be warned of the reaction test. A part of me thinks that was a gambit to force us into misyeeting Devo after his flip but... idk. Her bussing does make sense in that scenario, especially if she has some kind of preferable role. At the very least, Devotary can't be E/E with Striker and Araris, and I'm townleaning both Striker and Araris rn, so... Gut says Devotary should be pressured today, but that her yeet shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. If anyone is willing to step up from Devotary's Empire and give us some more context on her activity there, I would appreciate it greatly. Otherwise, Matrim and TJ should likewise be pressured. @|TJ| in particular hasn't said much this game, so if he's Village, I'd love some more thoughts from him. Matrim's already doing work so that's nice. Will evaluate as the day progresses.
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I'm with you on the policy v!Orlok read. Illwei has felt a little detached from the game, hoping she ramps up soon if Town but I could see her being an elim that wasn't around to do anything about the Archer yeet. I feel like if Sibling was an elim they'd be a little more involved in the game? I think JNV is Village from doc stuff + the fact he ran distro projections but can't be certain at this juncture. Tani up in the air based on some associative stuff, wouldn't flip her today but might consider it should Bort flip elim. So I'd say the most likely elim non-voters would be @Illwei > @Tani > @Orlok Tsubodai > @JNV > @The Sibling but there's a decent chance each one is Village (or most of them are) so not a pool I'm super interested in narrowing today, but would wholeheartedly welcome more content and votes going forward. Devotary, Matrim, TJ, Baker, and Bort are the five slots that make the most sense to explore today. Will award @Matrim's Dice a town point for coming to the same PoE conclusion, although he is still very much in my PoE right now and look forward to seeing how he proceeds today. @Kasimir, what was the thought process behind the self vote? I assume joke but just want to make sure.
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Unironically just promoted to my top town read, keep it up buddy ED1T: Oh yeah @Kasimir One thing I noticed you didn't consider is the non-voters Do you think that every single elim voted?
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Kasimir Bros don't let bros suffer being evil. I hear your cries. Spoken like a true psycho killer ED1T: Also, @Experience, I seriously did love your work this game and was fun having you in my Empire I'm sorry you had to die N1 for it, but it's a compliment honestly; the elims were clearly afraid of you. I will do my best to avenge you TeoishDocBro
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Bro it could be both or it could only be one and I don't know how to tell the difference anymore Whoever it is killed JNV who would have never voted me in this scenario so like Someone is the evil mastermind and I don't have the energy right now to figure it out I want to say TJ because I don't know how much Orlok was paying attention to kill JNV of all players But if it's TJ/Orlok they are just going to vote together and the game comes to RNG anyway so =/ I'd have preferred v!Orlok dying to the filter and knowing I did my best yesterday but should have gone TJ over TUN, even if we lost, to this And it very well could be E!Orlok which means we could have either won or voted TJ today since I've been wanting to vote Orlok since C3 I just don't know what to say anymore than GG ED1T: @Kasimir TJ This is my final vote, not changing it, nope. I was doing some backreading @Matrim's Dice and I found this gem of mine Retrospect is 20/20 lmao Idk why I bother with NK Analysis when I just get bogged down by the IKYKs Gave TJ way too much of a pass when it was just an Archer suspected TJ and Bort fear kill, remove from game and hope for best Orlok went into that exact same turn swinging for Bort when he could have gone after TJ, plus Orlok didn't even mention the NK as a point against Bort (Stick and I talked about this but I forgot, point in Orlok's favor) which means Orlok was just very likely on Bort's case from C2 and went inactive before he could follow the train of logic onto TJ So yeah, either it's TJ/Orlok or just TJ. I refuse to believe anything else. TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ TJ
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Amanuensis GG TJ and/or Orlok o7
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Like I said, follow your heart. I won't hold it against you. Wouldn't mind dying so I can stop being confused tbh, but lowkey hoping I'll have to be NK'd instead.
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But what if E!Orlok tho think of the plot twist! ED1T: Logically you are very right but I'm still uncertain about everything, nothing makes sense except someone is doing really well to blend in
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Plz do not beat yourself up friend, inactivity happens to the best of us, especially when RL is calling =/ no need to self-loathe. Just focus on what's important and game with us when you feel up to it Though I will say I was kinda looking forward to my poe narrowing with you getting filter killed xD I still think you could be an elim and was a lil eager to see if I was right without having to vote you haha Anyway I nap now, if I die gl village
