TheMightyLopen
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Yay for lying!
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Well, with the votes being 5 on Rae and 4 on Aman, I'll switch over to Rae since Aman hasn't been on and if Rae is Hoid, she could switch votes. Aman Arraenae Arraenae(6): The Young Bard, Elodin, Mailliw, leiftinspace, Mark, Lopen Aman(3): Sheep, Arraenae, Joe
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Vote tally: Aman(4): Lopen, Sheep, Arraenae, Joe Arraenae(3): The Young Bard, Elodin, Mailliw Joe(2?): PK, Conquestor?(wasn't able to green it out) Mark(1): Araris Haelbarde(1): Haelbarde With about 3 hours left in the Day, it appears the lynch is gonna be on either Aman or Rae. While I do feel mildly bad about lynching Aman without him ever showing up, I do suspect him a bit more than Rae. Of course, I suspect Rae of being Hoid, who's a much more powerful role. Eh, I can't really decide. I might move my vote over to Rae, but I'll leave my vote on Aman for now.
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As I've said before, I have a village read on Joe, so I don't agree with his lynch. But even if he is evil, I really don't think he'd be Hoid. He was online during rollover for Day 1, as evidenced by his posts at the end of day 1 and his posts at the start of N1. If he was Hoid then why would he have secret voted for Aman and redirected Elbereth's vote? That wouldn't make sense, because the lynch was pretty firmly settled on Trelagist. Maybe he wasn't able to cancel his orders in time or something, but that's not what I think happened obviously. Bring it on.
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On a side note, apart from the lynch, Ruin, could you pass me Honor if you've got it? That would be extremely helpful. Or you could keep Honor for yourself and pass me Ruin. But I'd prefer Honor if possible.
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That's always a possibility of course. But no one has really stated that much suspicion of me so far and I've been posting quite a lot, so I'm probably a villager. Anyways, you've been talking a good amount, but are you gonna vote on anyone? And of course, as soon as I say that no has stated suspicion of me, there's a quote from a player who stated suspicion of me. Anyways, I'll admit that I didn't have any type of read on you when I said that. I was just curious what you'd say or someone else would say. You are one of the players that I have a really hard time getting a read on and I usually end up suspicious of you because of that. But, from this post, I'm seriously getting a good vibe from you. I'm thinking "if he was an eliminator, he probably wouldn't draw attention to someone who's reading him as a villager." It's not that much of a read at this point, but it's better than nothing! Aman(1): Lopen Elodin(1): Arraenae Arraenae(1): The Young Bard Mark(1): Araris So, could we get more votes? That way Hoid won't be able to secret vote and we'll just have better discussion all around. There's been some accusations of players being suspicious but they didn't really come with votes so they're not as effective imo.
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I'm going to bed right now, but wanted to ask that players chime in on who they think we should lynch or just who they're suspicious of. This Day Turn has been really unproductive in terms of lynching. I personally want to lynch either Rae or Aman. If not one of them, I think I'd say Cloudjumper would be my next lynch target, because of his suspicious post at the end of last Day Turn and because he's been really quiet this Day Turn, for seemingly no reason(unless I missed something, which is possible, because I am extremely tired right now). There's also the fact that me, Kynedath, Trelagist and Cloudjumper started out in Sel, and now that Trelagist and Kynedath have been revealed to be innocents, and I know I'm innocent, that does make me wonder if Cloudjumper could be the 1 evil in our World PM. It is very possible Seonid put all villagers into one World PM, I know, but still, with my previous suspicion of him, it's just another point against him(but I should note that using GM tendencies for suspicions isn't something I generally promote, I'm just saying that it is something that should be considered alongside the rest of the reasons players(only me currently though, because I'm the only one who knows for certain that I am village) might think he's innocent/guilty). I'm gonna leave my vote on Aman for now though, because I'm more confident in my suspicion of him than I am of Rae or Cloudjumper. Also, if possible Devotion, could you get me a PM with Burnt, Alvron and me? I'd ask for separate PM's with each of them, but I think I already noted a couple other requests, so I figure I shouldn't be too selfish with my requests.
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Didn't Elodin used to be JerleShannara? Because Jerle was evil with you in QF13...
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Players who didn't vote on Day 1 who are possible suspects for Hoid. I voted on Aman. My theory about why Aman's vote change is suspicious, posted during last Night Turn: Honestly, I don't think I can put it in any clearer words Sheep. I can try later though, but I'm busy right now. Also, Alv... I still get nervous as an evil. >> Oh yeah, one more quote for sheep. This is at the end of my theory post about Aman that I reference above:
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I numbered points to respond easier. 1. Yeah, it's just that Aman and Rae are my top suspects so far and I don't think I have good enough evidence to lynch Rae, so I'd like to focus on what Aman has done so that we can talk to each other about how we feel about him. I personally believe he's an eliminator and I don't have any other suspects that I'm quite as confident about, so I voted on Aman. If he's not gonna be on at all this Turn, I suppose it might just be best to focus elsewhere, even though I'd rather get this situation cleared up asap, so we can figure out more about Hoid and who the rest of the eliminators are if Aman is evil. 2. My main reason for believing Aman's claim is, well, it was at the very beginning of Night 1, when scans can happen and it allowed plenty of time for anyone to counter claim moving Elb's vote, but no one did. And besides, it just makes sense that it was him, given he was one of the players on when the votes shifted towards Trelagist, and he moved a vote off of himself. Which is actually one of my biggest pieces of hard evidence for why he's evil. He didn't need to move the vote, but he did, I believe it was to hide Hoid's vote manip(who we know was also on Elb). It doesn't make much sense from a villagers standpoint, imo. 3. Actually, the last thing I said about them was that I trusted them some. Joe, because of a gut read and Elodin because he voted on Arraenae(which is a thin reason to trust someone I know, but I'm not going to be leaning on that trust any time soon). I was initially suspicious of Elodin for I think it was his first post. It just seemed kind of eliminatorish to me. But since then, I haven't seen much reason to be suspicious of him, and the same applies for Joe. 4. Conquestor. Hm. Well, I've kind of been reading him as village. Not a lot of reason/logic behind this read. Just gut. Yeah, Aman is a nice guy and he has generated a fair amount of discussion. But really, the discussion was almost all about him, so it's not like we can use it to make sense of anything since he's still alive. Obviously, I don't agree with keeping him around. But that's my opinion. Aaaand I've been ninja'd. But not by anything I really need to respond to.
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My current theory about why Odium attacked Nyali is that he tried to Invest in her during the Day Turn, but it failed, which alerted him that she was a Shard, so he killed her and that's why there was no Odium Investee kill(unless there was no 17th Shard kill for some reason and the kill on Kynedath was the Odium Investee kill?). That would still require a good deal of luck for him because she was Cultivation, but it seems more plausible than him targeting a random person and hitting Cultivation. Seonid, if you're a Shard and another Shard attempts to Invest in you, are you made aware of that? Edit: Also, if Odium's investee attacks a Shard, so their attack fails, is that shown in the write-up?
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Yeah, it's a lot of circumstantial evidence that really isn't solid proof. I just personally feel like you're one of the most suspicious players to have not voted. I really don't know what else can be said about my suspicion that you're Hoid. I would like some more opinions about my theory regarding Hoid/Aman/Elb's vote change though. Anyone want to give their opinion/thoughts on what happened, or if they think my theory is correct or not(regardless of who Hoid really is)? No problem gancho, glad to be of use! So, I think I'm gonna switch my vote from Rae to Aman. I still suspect that Rae is Hoid, but my case against her(along with my suspicion of her) is slightly less than my case/suspicion against Aman. To reiterate, I believe that Hoid secret voted on Aman, but tried to move Elbereths vote as a ploy to get Aman trust(without wasting one of Amans Elantrian uses), but it backfired by killing Elbereth instead. It might have worked too, since I do believe Aman's claim of Elantrian. Anyways, the full theory is over in the Night thread, if you'd like the full reasoning/theory about why I believe Aman is a 17th Shard member. Even if you don't agree with me, I'd still like you to vote! Because voting causes discussion and discussion can help us a lot in catching eliminators!
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Yeah, you missed a little something. Hoid targeted Elbereth last Day Turn with an Action(which appeared to have been a vote manipulation Action), but she had The Stick meta role, which turns any Action from Hoid that's directed at her into a kill Action, and so she died from Hoid's vote manipulation. Very sad. But very helpful as well, because we were able to narrow down who Hoid could be to 10 players.
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Well, Ruin is a villager, so that should be fine. Unless they passed their Shard to a 17th Sharder...in which case, yeah, that would be very bad. I'm going to put my vote on Rae, because I'm suspicious that she's Hoid. Although I'd lynch Aman too. Either one is suspicious enough in my mind to lynch, although I will say I am more suspicious of Aman at this point. I just suspect that Rae is more powerful, so she should probably die first. Edit: Oh, and for the newer players, "Rae" is Arraenae. Just wanted to make sure I was understood about who I want to brutally murderlynch.
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Yeah, but sheesh, it was the first Cycle! I'm guessing this was someone who hasn't played with Quiver before. I didn't want him to die so soon. I haven't played with him very much. I agree with Mailliw, I'd like to know where Nyali was and who she was with. I do remember Nyali mentioning Cultivation in the thread, so it's possible that Odium just guessed based off of that comment, but that seems like a pretty thin reason to think someone's Cultivation.
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I'm assuming that Ruin killed Quiver, for...some reason? Culty was killed by Odium obviously and I'm guessing that Kynedath was the 17th Shard kill, which is a bit confusing honestly, because they know who the Shards are/were.
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I see what you did there. >> Heh, just wait till I get over there. Then we'll have a bunch of talk!
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Yeah, I feel like if this was Star Wars, someone would definitely have said "you assume too much" by now, with all the assuming I'm doing. Hael, mind telling me what planet you're on? I'm gonna world hop somewhere, cause my world PM is so quiet and I would like to know who's where so I can find talkative people! And I know that you can be quite talkative.
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Oh right, yeah, I was just assuming that. I have no hard proof that they took away Trel's abilities, but that makes the most sense to me, given he was being lynched and he didn't have any roles when he died.
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No problem, assuming I'm alive to respond to your response! Also, I edited my post to include some more reads, just in case I die on N1 again. :/
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Okay! Just about finished thinking about all of this vote changing business. First of all, and basically irrelevant, El must have been gifted someone's roles by a Puppetmaster, because you can't start with 2 meta-roles. Really, the only reason I'm mentioning this is that it points towards there being a village Puppetmaster, making sure a players abilities don't get lost when they get lynched. They gave the abilities to Elbereth, who wasn't evil, which is why I'm guessing they're village. Will stay paranoid of plots by evils to gain trust, but that's my opinion right now. Anyways! Back on track. Here's my current theory about what happened with the votes. Votes are piling up on Aman(at one point he had 4 I believe). There really wasn't a great alternative lynch candidate, but The Young Bard had 2 votes on him at one point, so assuming Aman is a 17th Sharder, that would most likely be where a vote manip would move a vote to. So Aman asks his leader(Hoid) to secret vote on him, to make it seem like the 17th Shard was trying to take advantage of the votes on Aman to kill him without bringing attention to themselves, but also asks that Hoid moves Elbereths vote to The Young Bard, which would make the votes be 3 on Aman(me, phatt, Hoid) and 3 on Bard(voter #1, voter #2, Elbereth). Aman would then last minute vote on Bard, claiming he was saving himself from the lynch(because villagers do that, so it's fine), but it would in actuality kill Bard. He would then explain that he was worried about Hoid secret voting and moving a vote on him to kill him, so he moved Elb's vote to Bard. However, votes started to move away from Bard and onto Trelagist, with players not agreeing with the Bard or Aman lynch. But Hoid was offline when the shift happened, so they couldn't change their orders. Aman, not wanting the vote change to appear on Bard(because he couldn't explain moving a vote to Bard when Trelagist was the more voted on player), used his Elantrian power(yes, I believe his claim, because it makes sense) to ALSO move Elb's vote, but to Trelagist, so that he could more easily explain the vote switch(he would be hoping that his vote change would win the coin flip over Hoids, therefore keeping the previous plan to relieve suspicion of Aman by using the secret vote/vote change hidden). I believe this makes sense, given he really didn't need to use his vote changing power, because he could have moved his own vote to Trel, and made it 6 votes on Trel and only 3 on him(good enough to avoid any vote shenanigans). That's what I believe happened. Or something like that anyways. So I'm now even more confident in my suspicion of Aman. Now, on to who could be Hoid. My current suspect is Arraenae. Reason being that she voted multiple times during the Day Turn, but eventually cancelled her last vote and didn't vote again. I believe that is because Aman and her had made the plan to secret vote, so she knew she would be revealed if she voted. Another reason for my suspicion of her is that she went offline right around the time that the shift from Bard/Aman to Trelagist happened, so she wouldn't have been able to change her Hoid orders. Edit: Just in case I die, I'm also quite suspicious of DeathClutch for his involvement with Aman and Rae, and Cloudjumper, for his post at the end of last Day Turn and other small reasons which I'd rather not say. I have village reads on Sheep, Joe, Bard, Mark, Hael, Conquestor, Elodin(vote on Rae just now), Araris and phattemer(vote on Aman). Their not all that strong of village reads.
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Gosh, that was a long eliminator doc for a QF! You just slightly got it past QF12's eliminator doc, which was 8681 pages I think? And you had less players!
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I wasn't saying you were suspicious, just that you were a possible suspect for Hoid, because of your online times. But that's irrelevant now, because we know that Hoid secret voted on Aman, so we know that you aren't Hoid! This situation is still confusing to me. I think I understand what exactly happened(Hoid secret voted on Aman, redirected Elb's vote, which killed her and then an Elantrian(supposedly Aman) moved Elb's vote too, which is the reason why Elb's vote actually got moved). What I don't understand is why Hoid moved Elb's vote if he secret voted on Aman. It's like, either he's trying to save Aman by moving Elb's vote or he's trying to kill Aman by secret voting on him. As it is, this seems an awful lot like some shenanigan designed to either cast suspicion on Aman or get suspicion off of him. I've yet to decide which, although with my suspicion of him, I'm obviously going to be leaning towards the theory that this was designed to get suspicion off of him. But the only thing wrong with that is that Aman is claiming to be an Elantrian who moved Elb's vote, which, I think is true, given no one has counter claimed him, and he knows that falsely claiming to have moved a vote would most likely get him killed either this Night or the next Day(if you're the Elantrian who moved Elb's vote, please claim in the thread). So if Aman is an Elantrian member of the 17th Shard along with Hoid, then why the heck did Hoid try to move Elb's vote too? At least we were able to narrow down who Hoid is a good amount. I'm gonna go through each of those players posts and see what I can find.
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Which is what I thought. So Hoid must have tried to move El's vote, because that is the only Action he can target other players with during the Day, unless he has a meta role I guess? Also, thanks Mark for bringing up that clarification, I'd forgotten about that.
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Blast. Why can't anything be simple? I don't really understand why you didn't just move your own vote to Trelagist instead though. Anyways, Seonid, is Hoid's scanning ability a Night only Action?
