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Orlok Tsubodai

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Everything posted by Orlok Tsubodai

  1. Orlok Tsubodai
    1) Just noticed elsewhere on the forum that Ripple seems hurt by our lynch train on her. Ripple, whilst I've tried now to derail it, I really am sorry about this. 2) I would strongly encourage others to reconsider their votes, this cycle at least. The last thing we want is to be seen as a sub forum where people cannot join, because of a non-inclusive culture. Even if you are certain of Ripple's guilt, it is, in my mind, worth us not lynching her this cycle, to maintain and try and encourage a more inclusive atmosphere.
  2. Orlok Tsubodai
    I'm going to place a vote on Joe, in an attempt to offer up an alternative lynch proposal. I have a fair amount if residual suspicion from the plan, and his retraction of the plan, and I am aware that there is a good explanation of this, but equally, it seems a pretty good way of gaining trust to propose and retract a plan helping the village - it feels very genuine. Further, given from the later votes we were lynching Ripple on the basis of the information it would give, the amount we could draw from Joe's death at this point is vast. (That and I can't really countenance lynching a new player on cycle 1, and I feel that the Ripple incident has spiralled further than I intended).
  3. Orlok Tsubodai
    I did not expect this to lead to a lynch. Apologies, Ripple. It was an interesting occurance, and one I certainly felt should be noted, hence my raising it's profile, but a bandwagon on it is a little excessive.
  4. Orlok Tsubodai
    Ripple, firstly, I did not claim it to be 'serious analysis.' I said 'instead of a vote based on serious thread analysis'. Yes. I am voting based on a typo, for now. That typo is more likely to occur, in my view, as an eliminator with the mental model of the Skaa being the side you support. I made no subconscious decision; I think you have misconstrued what I am saying. I am questioning whether confusing the two is a subconscious action due to the above suspicion. I then linked this to a previous case, where a similar event had occurred in my own experience.
  5. Orlok Tsubodai
    Whilst I have been following the thread, due to Real Life commitments I haven't been thinking about it as much as I should. Hence, instead of a vote based on serious thread analysis, Ripple.Confusing whether Skaa or Eliminators are the village, as you have done above, seems to me to be the sort of mistake that is far more likely to occur should you be a Skaa, and therefore have an image of them as the 'good guys' as it were. I would draw parallels between this and my own mistake in LG13, in which I confused Hero and Ren, probably subconsciously due to the fact that the two were my fellow eliminators, in the main doc.
  6. Orlok Tsubodai
    Wyrm, I was voting for you primarily to 1) see when you'd react, as I know your timezone and have a pretty good idea of your online times, 2) because before Kipper withdrew his vote, I could put actual lynch pressure on you, and it's always interesting seeing how people react to that, and 3) to keep you in the discussion - both because you're a player who's insight is worth having, and because you're sufficiently dangerous that the more opportunities you have to trip up the better! Edit: colour
  7. Orlok Tsubodai
    My views on day 1 lynches are probably already known to those of you who have played with me before; I was rather outspoken in MR8. Let's look at the two potential outcomes of day 1, in a game without PMs. 1) We decide not to have a day 1 lynch. Little discussion occurs - why would it - there is no evidence to lynch anyone on, no allegations that can hold water, and so people do not engage. During the night, someone is killed by the eliminators. Day 2 comes round. We again have no information - we were unable to glean anything from the eliminator kill, as there is no discussion to base inferences off. We again face the same situation as day one, in which we have no information on which to base the lynch, except that we are an additional villager down. 2) We have a lynch discussion, force players to defend themselves, and have the opportunity to see patterns and differences in play styles, for those players who have played before. In addition to the information we glean from this, we stimulate discussion, again, forcing exposure to the thread, and force the eliminators to play reactively - picking a target to make us believe something - and even if we are wrong in our deductions, it allows us to build up evidence as to how the eliminators are playing. The alternative is that they pick someone irrelevant to the discussion, and therefore having the discussion keeps our active players alive. The disparity in information held or obtainable by the village in scenario B dramatically outweighs that of scenario A. This is, in my mind, absolutely worth the small risk of hitting a player with a valuable role. Now, in terms of voting. Wyrm, your vote on Venture does indeed seem rather uncalled for. In both MR6 and MR8, Venture did not so much as post until after the first cycle had ended. In QF9 and 10, whilst he posted, he did not do so until a large amount of discussion had occurred. In all these games, he was a villager. Whilst his behaviour in posting so early is unusual, and I shall follow him with interest, he is very definitely a reactive player, and voting on him based on an unchanging characteristic seems slightly wrong. Edit: removing typos, and replacing A and B with 1 and 2 - B with ) is apparently an emoticon.
  8. Orlok Tsubodai
    On mobile, you can access them by opening them in a new tab - just clicking on them doesn't work for me.
  9. Orlok Tsubodai
    Once again, no RP... What: Upgrading 2 banks Where: Fadrex When G4T2A2 Who: Lady Tekiel Why: To increase the income of House Tekiel
  10. Orlok Tsubodai
    Might I please join as Locke Tekiel?
  11. Orlok Tsubodai
    No RP from me today - sorry. Action 2: What: Upgrading two banks Where: Fadrex When: G4T1A2 Who: Lady Tekiel Why: To increase the profitability of the banks
  12. Orlok Tsubodai
    Right... Ok, so whilst your tables are a good idea, and I can see where you are coming from, I do have a few concerns with your extrapolations if guilt. 1) My delayed vote on Hero was out of a desire to have another target brought forward, so that a discussion, rather than a bandwagon occurred - I do not like bandwagons terribly much, as we don't draw all that much information from them - and although it did happen that we found an accurate target, we would have benefitted far more had another potential lynches been raised - we would have seen, for example, who was prepared to try to shift attention from Hero, and who seized upon the opportunity to do so. 2) Your table ignores the fact that I returned from inactivity at a point where I was no longer even mentioned amongst the inactives - had I been an eliminator, what better place to remain - practically forgotten - a position from which I could have exercised the eliminator kill with impunity? I think you place a too much weight on Shallan voting for Hero twice - yes, she did vote on an eliminator, but is this not a usual technique to gain trust? Her reasoning was shaky enough that has a bandwagon not occurred she could well have 'been convinced otherwise' and removed her vote. Overall, whilst your analysis is very interesting, I'm against placing too much weight on the numbers, and ignoring the interactions themselves.
  13. Orlok Tsubodai
    Macen, I'm really not sure why those tables lead you to conclude that I'm guilty - would you care to expound on them, so that I can better understand your reasoning and do my best to prove to you otherwise?
  14. Orlok Tsubodai
    Well... Storms. I was certain that Bort was guilty. I'm really sorry guys. I might have just ruined our chances of pulling off a victory... I'm going to have to reevaluate all my analysis...
  15. Orlok Tsubodai
    Thank you Macen! I understand - provided you are completely certain of Shallan's eliminatorship - and only in that case. You see, if Shallan isn't and eliminator, we are putting the eliminators one kill closer to victory. I am far more certain of Bort's guilt than Shallan's - there is great potential that an eliminator team, with the benefit of time and numbers as they appear to have, are framing her. This I believe should become clearer after the night cycle. If we lynch Bort successfully, we buy ourselves another round of time, and can afford the loss of a villager to ensure we get tomorrow's correct. Thankfully, we have a significant information advantage over last turn, and can capitalise on this next turn.
  16. Orlok Tsubodai
    So, firstly - I called the extension. It was 2:00am my time, and I wasn't up to putting my thoughts down, and I felt that we needed much, much more discussion before today's lynch - a lynch we simply cannot get wrong. To have such a crucial lynch decided by a single vote seems entirely wrong to me. And so, I ought to put down my own analysis. Shallan appears to be targeted because those who name her as suspects are targeted. This is indeed evidence of potential eliminatorship, but not conclusive. 1) This could well have occurred to force the village into a lynch to remove an active villager - Shallan has been a driving force behind much discussion, and she also spearheaded the lynch of Hero - who would be very useful for the eliminators, both in his experience and influence over the thread. Bort: Bort seems to me to be a very high suspect for a WGG. He gets hit, and then, saved by shardplate, ceases contributing to the thread - fading into obscurity - the perfect hiding place. Not only that, but his 'disappearance' came out of the blue - following activity the previous cycle, and he managed this in such a way as to force role reveals from villagers as well... Seonid: Seonid has become the trusted player this game - and for some good reason. However, he has led lynch discussion throughout the last few days, and has succeeded in not finding an eliminator. This could be either bad luck, or a similar gambit to that played by Wyrm in QF9. This could provide some clarity to Feligon's death - see Seonid's own analysis #2. That being said, and whilst we must consider it a possibility, I consider it an unlikely one at best. Macen: Something has seemed a little off about Macen's recent posts, and I have little concrete evidence for my suspicion of him, except that he has been attacking the players who are 1) almost unanimously thought innocent (Seonid) and 2) led to the lynch of an experienced and trusted eliminator (Shallan). Also, I have a niggling doubt in my mind that his post regarding the assassin earlier might have been intended to draw out those who know or think they know the assassin's identity - this post was only made today, after they attacked Macen - outliving their usefulness to the eliminators? I'm most certain of Bort's guilt - and so will vote for him - his death should buy us another cycle's worth of information, which at this point should allow us to without a doubt discern whether Shallan or Macen is the eliminator.
  17. Orlok Tsubodai
    Hmm. Ok then. I dislike your logic regarding voting for Ven, Seonid. Yes, Paranoid King's vote on hero does exonerate him, but does not give him any greater ability to judge the alignment of other players. Gamma, on the other hand, does seem a more plausible suspect - although if an adequate defence is mounted, I shall, of course, reevaluate.
  18. Orlok Tsubodai
    Ok, that makes more sense. Still, just because he is a villager, he is still fallible - I'm not going to vote for him unless someone sets out he evidence clearly, and we have a response - otherwise we cannot draw anything, and are no closer to finding the other eliminators
  19. Orlok Tsubodai
    Sorry, but correct me if I've misinterpreted you. You are sure Seonid is a conspirator, so you are going to vote on the person Seonid is voting for? Wouldn't a vote on Seonid be more appropriate, so that another player can ensure their demise? I am still waiting for some analysis before I cast my vote - surely someone must have some?
  20. Orlok Tsubodai
    Um, I know there's bit much time left before rollover (assuming another extension isn't allowed?) but shouldn't we actually discuss Venture's guilt before lynching him? As it stands, Seonid called him out, Shallan voted on him immediately after, and Venture counter-voted on Seonid - there doesn't seem much evidence-based reasoning going on here... We really need to get this lynch right, and a shot in the dark doesn't seem like the way to do it...
  21. Orlok Tsubodai
    Shallan, I have read it, and will do my best to remain active for the remainder of this game. Other than calling me out for activity, do you have any other reason to vote for me?
  22. Orlok Tsubodai
    I have returned - apologies for this protracted absence. I have not had an easy time at home, and it has got harder to come back the longer this game has gone on for without my following it closely. I shall read through the thread today, but if anyone wants to send me their analysis, it would be much appreciated as a starting point
  23. Orlok Tsubodai
    Lord Tekiel rose, and took the witness stand once more. He was glad for the opportunity to acquit Lord Zerrung - whose warnings and aid had proven invaluable in preparing the defence of Fadrex City. “Esteemed Lords, Ladies of the Empire. Lord Zerrung is innocent of all wrongdoing in this affair. He has been in constant communication with Lady Wilson and myself, and indeed, not only did he warn me about the existence of the plot, he freely, without incentive, warned me of the intentions of Lords Vinid and Erikell, allowing countermeasures to be taken to mitigate the threat of an attack by the combined forces of Farrsolin, Orielle, Vinid and Erikell. Not least among these preparations was the acquisition of a set of Ironbows from Lord Zerrung, granted on credit to my House, as I could not spare the actions to accept a contract. These actions speak for themselves. No Lord intending to act against my House would provide me weapons to use against the gathered opposition, without taking immediate payment. Had he been intending to march, he would have known that I would have identified his men amongst the attackers, and had reasonable grounds to refuse payment." I attach here the transcript of the communications Lord Zerrung has had with myself and Lady Wilson, which will allow you to corroborate for yourselves his innocence in this affair.
  24. Orlok Tsubodai
    The tension in Keep Tekiel was a tangible thing, all pervading, and unrelenting. The storm had been brewing for years, and was now on the verge of breaking. This was evident everywhere; from the supplies stockpiled to survive a siege to new additions to the fortifications - murder holes, gatehouses. Regular patrols arrived - a steady stream, ensuring information was as accurate as possible. The battalions were rotated on the duties, between keeping Fadrex and the villages protected, to manning the ambush positions set up to delay and cause damage to any attacking force, and between the two Keeps. A force of loaned men, from another Noble House, whilst wearing a distinct uniform, mingled freely with the Tekiel men - they had been serving together for years. Lord Tekiel lay at the centre of the logistical web, never shirking his duty. The stress, however, had taken its toll. No longer was he the vigorous man of his youth - a life under threat had beaten the energy out of him. The atmosphere in Luthadel was incredibly flammable, with both sides knowing the attack was coming, and the knowledge that one would be obliterated hung heavy over all. Lord Tekiel knew the odds were stacked well against him - that much was clear from the number of Houses arrayed against him, and yet he was determined to ensure that it cost the attackers dearly. Lord Tekiel had been unsurprised by the makeup of the coalition. House Tekiel had had unfriendly dealings with House Farrsolin in the early days of the Empire, and the enmity with Erikell and Vinid was fresher still. Indeed, Lord Tekiel wasn't quite sure the confrontation had ever ended. Of course, Lord Erikell had come forward with information about a plot against Tekiel, but had charged him dearly with it - demanding the cancellation of all agreed reparations to expose the plot. House Zerrung, on the other hand, was a fine example of a House fulfilling its duty to the empire - revealing the plot without delay or fee, and aiding House Tekiel in preparing its defences. Lord Tekiel was therefore unsurprised when Lord Erikell had demanded a significant fee to not flatten Fadrex, alongside Lord Vinid - the two were never seen apart anyway. And it was this that had forced Lord Tekiel to prepare for the end. He was resolute. No House would extort Tekiel. If the price for survival was his dignity, it was not a price worth paying. And so, when the messenger burst into his chambers, Lord Tekiel was prepared. An army was marching through Luthadel, comprising those aligned against him. His resolve unwavering, Lord Tekiel left for the walls, preparing to bolster the morale of his men. The armies filled the streets, an endless swarm approaching Keep Tekiel. And then carried on past. A cheer arose from the walls, before a glare from Lord Tekiel quelled it instantly. Lady Vinid was a dangerous opponent, and letting down the guard at this point would be foolhardy in the extreme. ---------------------------- A laugh of incredulity burst from Lord Tekiel, before he restrained himself and returned to his impassive demeanour. Lady Vinid had marched on Farrsolin? He supposed that she must have got wind of the rather unpleasant plans The Lord Ruler had drawn up, in preparation for one of his generals going traitor. Lord Tekiel had seen them, and it was enough to convince him to never go near the position, lest he make a mistake that brought such wrath upon him. And the charges? It amused Lord Tekiel immensely to see Lady Vinid attempt to distance herself from the plot. It was unfortunate, however that her story didn't add up. -------------------------- Lord Tekiel rose to speak to the judge presiding. A few murmured words, a sharp look, and then a clerk summoned to check procedure. "Very well" the judge told Lord Tekiel, before announcing to the court that Lord Tekiel would rise to the witness stand, and was laying charges upon Houses Erikell and Vinid, for Conspiracy to commit Treason and Extortion. Lord Tekiel turned to address the court. "Assembled nobles, it pains me to cause such chaos and muddy the waters further in an already complicated affair, but in the interests of the justice Lady Vinid seems so keen on, it must be done. I am having my servants distribute to you now a copy of all recent correspondence between myself and Lord Erikell. I am of the belief that it speaks for itself. Given, though, the seriousness of the charges I am levelling, I shall ensure that they are properly explained. My counsel and representative during this trial will be Lady Gwynne Wilson, to whom I yield the floor. ------------------------ ------------------------ Well. This is interesting. You see, I would absolutely love to be able to corroborate Vinid's delightful story. But I'm afraid it's quite a bit more complicated than she makes it out to be. This doc contains all recent PMs between myself and Lord Erikell: Here
  25. Orlok Tsubodai
    I thought I would just check in to apologise for inactivity - I haven't had the best time at home recently, had DofE earlier in the game, and am heading back for my final year of school tomorrow, with all that entails university-wise. I shall certainly endeavor to catch up and contribute as soon as I can - be that tomorrow (hopefully) or once the weekend has begun. At this point I will just put out there, from a cursory read of the last few days, that Shallan has made it towards the top of my list, not least for her post above about the last noble guardsman. I seriously doubt that I will be able to get anything meaningful written up today though, and following a more analytical read of the thread, my views are likely to change, so I shall refrain from voting this cycle. Sorry.
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