Orlok Tsubodai
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Everything posted by Orlok Tsubodai
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At this point, then, are we not best served by calculating which of the players up for the lynch will generate us the most information? Of these, I don't know that it's Straw - discussion hasn't focused on him except as a Non-Rand target. Randuir.
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Apologies, @Amanuensis. I'd have posted earlier, but having not got to sleep until about 3:30am last night, managed to fall back to sleep after waking up. I'm torn about Randuir. I, too, don't like killing him whilst he's away, and he has an exam today. I don't think my suspicion is too convoluted, although it relies on the neutral roles having committed to the eliminator team, and staying with them even after Rand is discovered/dies. This might occur through pressure Rand generated, but at that point is starting to become a little more tenuous. Straw has been far more active than he normally is. I asked him about this in the PM I have with him, and he explained that he's now on summer break. I'm not sure I've ever seen how he plays when he's investing time into the game, but am not sure I want to discourage it by lynching him on D1. I'll skim through the thread and think about voting on Yitzi now - would someone remind me of the retraction rules this game? Do I retract in this post, or my original post?
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Elim!Rand has every incentive to make the neutrals think that village!Rand and the rest of the village are opposed to neutral players.
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In what way does that prove he's town? It's completely against his interests as a villager to do that, and is advantageous from the perspecrive of an eliminator?
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@Amanuensis, Randuir went after the Convict, a role useful to Cosette, Marius, and Eponine, and made arguments that applied to every single neutral player justifying our being lynched. It wouldn't be too unreasonable to think it might irk the neutral players.
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I don't see why it's in a villager's interests, Aman, to make a post applicable to every neutral player suggesting that they're likely to support the eliminators, and so that they should be lynched. He doesn't make the claim explicitly, but the logic applies to every neutral player, not just Joe: .
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Because through orchestrating the lynch of the neutral player, whilst appearing a villager, he may swing five other neutral players towards the eliminator team, massively changing the balance of numbers in the game.
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@Amanuensis, isn't your defence of Randuir based solely on the fact that's you don't think he'd have risked people realising that he might be turning the neutrals against the village? Your defence essentially comes down to believing you have a perfect understanding of Randuir's propensity to take risks, and his ability to predict how others will react to his actions.
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@Amanuensis, would you explain why you don't see it as advantageous for an eliminator to seek to create a rift between neutral players and the village?
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Apologies - a typo. It should read Stink. I lost the count 90% of the way through, and had to do it again. Straw: Stink, Stink, Araris, Rae, Elenion (4) Drake: Stink (0) Stink: Straw, Straw (0) Joe: Randuir, Straw, Drake (2) Randuir: Brightness, Joe, Orlok (3)
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Straw: Stink, Straw, Araris, Rae, Elenion (4) Drake: Stink (0) Stink: Straw, Straw (0) Joe: Randuir, Straw, Drake (2) Randuir: Brightness, Joe, Orlok (3)
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I'm not doing serious analysis this game, but would question whether Randuir is acting in the village's best interest? His actions seem set pretty firmly on alienating neutral roles for something that makes sense for them to do, which is much more likely to come from an eliminator in my mind than a villager? Randuir is highly intelligent, and I don't see him not realising the impact his actions would have. Randuir.
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I've had this post ready to send for a few hours, but have been saying goodbye to El, who is now going back to the US. I'm sure none of you will be too surprised if I express an interest in keeping Joe alive until he's used up his protection on Cosette or myself, should he be the Convict. As a neutral player, it's entirely unsurprising that he's trying to get in contact with the eliminators - indeed, I wouldn't mind a PM with them. We aren't villagers, and aren't working against the village, but need to balance support for both factions. Lynching us for the only sensible move we can make will alienate the other neutral roles.
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Before I go to sleep, @Cosette/Convict's Ward, if you fancy PMing me this day turn, it would probably prove rather helpful? I don't think there's any risk to you arising from doing so, and it makes sense for us to get contact established sooner rather than later?
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Wilson described my motivation for claiming pretty well, above. I've also done a lot of analysis in recent games, which whilst immensely fun, is hugely time consuming. My analysis spreadsheet has five tabs in which I need to input data, and normally 6-10 cells of input for each post made. I'm hoping to spend this game interacting with other players far more frequently, and think that this should help me push my comfort zone as a player.
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Welcome to SE, then! I look forward to playing with you.
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Right. Some early thoughts on the game: We have up to six neutral roles in the game, which leaves 22 divided amongst the village and eliminators (assuming the Pauper Baron gets converted during the game). I suppose this could give either four or five eliminators, as the eliminators also risk hitting neutral roles. Time isn't as pressing this game as many I've played recently - the very worst case scenario gives us six full cycles before numbers draw equal, assuming the Ringleader doesn't kill, and even then, there would still be six neutral roles in the game. I couldn't find it, and it's pretty important to know, given the number of neutral roles. @Haelbarde, do the eliminators need to outnumber all villagers, or kill them all? Right. Thoughts on posts so far: Joe's post makes sense, and is reasonable for a villager. I don't see an advantage in driving positive village sentiment towards people with neutral roles as an eliminator - or, I think the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. Much of Randuir's advice was very obvious, which I'm always suspicious of, but I've seen that from villagers enough that I shouldn't find it too suspicious. @Straw, your thoughts on the players that have posted so far? You've seen most of them in historical games - do you think they're acting consistently with how they have as villagers in the past? @Jondesu, similarly, thoughts beyond saying you'll analyse? @Shqueeves, I haven't seen you before - are you a new player? I'm not sure whether to put your appreciation of the graph down to friendliness or trying to get Straw on side. I'm not normally too keen on advice for roles being the focus of D1 discussion - it's a way to appear to contribute without giving any real opinions on players, and doesn't help us built a better picture of links between players. In the interests of generating discussion, I am the Pauper Noble, although I've already established that El is not the Convict's Ward. @Crimsn-Wolf, you were around earlier. There's plenty to discuss now, do some thoughts on the game?
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I'll sign up as Locke Tekiel. Details on characterisation to come. @Haelbarde, as a heads up for any balancing you do today, @Elbereth is planning on signing up, but won't be able to do so until she wakes (although that will definitely be before the deadline).
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@randuir, according to my spreadsheet, by the end of D3 (as far as I got), you had made 52 of 363 posts. Thank you all for such an interesting game, with particular thanks to @Elbereth, @TheMightyLopen, and @DroughtBringer. I'll work on post-game thoughts, which I anticipate posting in a few days time.
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@The Flash, @Yitzi2, the decision to detain Yitzi was made very shortly before the rollover, based largely on a whim, and as I recall suspicion at the time, but I can't remember what for, for which I apologise.
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Elbereth was waylaid last night whilst travelling, and was unable to do the final writeup. She will aim to complete it tonight, and apologises for the delay. She hopes that everyone understands, and that they'll forgive her for the delay.
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@The Flash, I detained you because I believe you to be suspicious. I would have reevaluated my suspicion before announcing your role, and would have waited to observe how you acted in the thread following having been detained.
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I haven't been around, because I've been with Elbereth. We're in a relationship, and have been for the last six months, but live on different sides of the Atlantic Ocean. Much though I enjoy these games, I hope that no one will grudge me the opportunity to make the most of the limited time I have with her.. Right. I did indeed detain The Flash, I can confirm that he had a great number of vials on him, which does mean that he's a mistborn. I hope that The Flash is merely a mistaken villager, and that he's overeager. I detained him due to thinking that he is suspicious, primarily driven by my observations of his interactions on day one, given my limited analysis of the thread over the last cycle. If any of you would like to read my day one posts, you'll note that my suspicion of him was made clear here. I will also note that it would be extremely rash to clear The Flash based on being a mistborn. It is entirely possible to balance an eliminator team around powerful roles, either with newer players, timezone misalignment, or limited other roles in the game.
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Apologies, everyone, for my inactivity. El has come to the UK, and I have spent the last three days with her. For those of you who are unaware, we are in a relationship, and I have been enjoying seeing her in person for the first time.
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@Metacognition, @TheMightyLopen, neither of you have really been present this cycle, although Meta has been online. Thoughts on the game?
