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Young Bard

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  1. Young Bard
    I had a great big post ready, but my computer ate it (I had it in my bag during a thunderstorm the other day, and I suspect that may have damaged it. One by one, it's becoming harder to use). For some reason, right on the last paragraph, my computer decided that whenever I press the "Enter" Key, that I clearly want the last paragraph I wrote to be deleted. Fun. :/ I'm just hoping that was a one time event... Shift+Enter seems to work though, so that's a start. Here's a summary of what I had written before: Vote shift: I was originally going to post about 15 minutes before rollover to foil the vote manips, but I only realized that morning that I wouldn't be able to do that, because I had a Charity Meeting to go to (although not much happened today, but such is life...) that lunchtime. The vote in the morning was a hasty compromise, and nearly made me miss my train. Doctor: I have to admit, I'm kind of impatient for those scan results. Eliminators have performed double bluffs in the past (Aman in LG21 is a good example), and I consider it more than possible that's what's happening here. In addition, Doctor's post about receiving SB's Breath seemed off to me in both content and language structure. I'll try and explain further the moment I have a fully functioning computer, but really? SB just gave away his Breath to someone he hadn't spoken with, committing suicide in the process? It just strikes me as unlikely. Oh, and El, is there a distinction between people that started as Potential Returned and full Returned in the write-up?
  2. Young Bard
    Doctor is the answer to Ecth's puzzle. I hate either/or clauses in that kind of puzzle - it took me five times as long to work that out then it would have otherwise. Working I agree that scanning Doctor would be the best choice tonight. If a scanner knows another scanner, I suggest that one arranges to scan Doctor, and the other Mark, as this could be a diversionary tactic.
  3. Young Bard
    Ec3, to try and prevent vote manips, and because I'm more suspicious of him then Mark. I have to go now, though. My analysis will come after rollover.
  4. Young Bard
    Posting to avoid the inactivity filter. I'm really sorry I've been busy, everyone. I'm hoping to do a player by player analysis tonight, when I come back.
  5. Young Bard
    I have to admit that I'm not caught up on the thread. I have to admit, though, that I don't get where this neutral hate is coming from. Yes, we need to kill the SK and Arsonist, but Hoid isn't really a danger to us right now, which is what Wilson seems to be claiming Mage is. For the same reason, I don't particularly feel like voting on Burnt. I'll do some more analysis in the morning, but from now I think that the Jack of All Trades roles are the biggest threat right now, because the number of deaths yesterday suggest that there are no pure kill roles. If we can knock them out, then everybody gets a bit more breathing room to think, and factions grow more obvious too as people need to rely on the lynch to win.
  6. Young Bard
    From the rules - it specifically says "Turn", not "Cycle". So Drab kills come with the Day and Night Cycles. Ecth should have died at the end of Day 1, before he could ever have entered the Lottery.
  7. Young Bard
    OK, I was busy yesterday, but I'm very surprised someone hasn't brought this up before. Ecth lost his Breath Night 0. He declared so on Day 1. If he were a villager, he would have died at the end of Day 1 unless someone passed their Breath. No-one did pass their Breath, because then they would have been killed at the end of Night 1, and there was no mention of it in the write-up. Ecth is a confirmed Returned. (Either that or he's being a Chaotic and lied for no clear reason. But I consider the first much more likely.) The Lottery is on the Night Cycle, after Ecth would have died. El, do you mind confirming that Drab victims will die at the end of the Day Cycle? It makes me wonder about a number of other players now. Araris - I thought that Bugsy being innocent made you seem more like a villager in my eyes, but now you defend Ecth. The thing is, I almost feel as if you're too obvious an Eliminator to be an Eliminator somehow. You're a good player - unless you were truly desperate, I don't think you'd act the way you did. Then again, I find it likely that the Eliminator team is a bit smaller than usual to compensate for the Potential Returned, maybe 2 or 3 people, so perhaps you're desperate enough to try and keep Ecth alive long enough that the new trustworthy recruits can swarm in. Magestar - Honestly, I haven't read Meta's most recent long post yet, but I'm about to. Ignoring that, I consider Magestar a possible candidate, again for his ties with Ecth and Araris, and because he got noticed by Meta, one of the best analyzers in SE, at the beginning of the game, but I'll edit my new thoughts in once I start reading in greater depth.
  8. Young Bard
    They're open. You can make as many as you like, at any time. (GM inclusion is preferred, not necessary.)
  9. Young Bard
    I have the same problem with Meta on this, which I had even before I saw Meta's post. This is mentioned once by Bugsy and once by Araris. The thing is, I also asked El whether the lynch or Breath Passing came first in the PM. When she responded that the lynch came first, that's when I formulated my whole second lynch plan. The thing is, I find the GM response to this interesting. Usually, GM rules are that they will clarify when there's an innocent mistake made (as El did toward the top of this page.) When there is deliberate misinformation being spread out, they don't say anything. El didn't say anything. Now, that in itself doesn't mean anything. But I can't think of a reason why a Village!Bugsy (and later a Village!Araris) would lie about that, or how in any way that would benefit a village plan. I'll try and do some analysis on his posts. Disclaimer: I in no way consider my analysis to be infallible, I merely want to see if something else strikes out at me that an Eliminator might do. In his first post, he tells us that he doesn't have much Breath, without any sort of provocation or reference to him in thread. Well, Bugsy made a mistake here, which I'll talk about more in the next post. If my plan was going ahead, I'd consider the question about WGG's eliminator-ish as Bugsy could be planning to do just that and downplay it as an idea to the thread, but as it is I don't think that part is alignment indicative. 1. (see bolded section). This is in response to Ecth saying she had had 8 breath. Why didn't you think Breath could be that high, Bugsy? Surely you couldn't predict how much Breath everyone in the game had just based on your own. Unless of course, you had several people in a doc that you'd exchanged Breath counts with. (I would guess that the average Returned started with less Breath than the average villager, to counteract the fact that they'd have more at the end, like Elodin said. (Sorry if I have the wrong person here, I'm going from memory because I can't be bothered scrolling.) 2. I wouldn't be surprised if this was an innocent mistake, for the reasons I stated at the top of the post - the GM wouldn't clarify if Bugsy were deliberately trying to mislead us. However, the fact that he asked a question about when a Returned dies makes me think that he might have done so because it was directly relevant to him. I'd be curious from anyone who GM'ed a game with Bugsy how many questions they asked you in that game, but I'm not aware of Bugsy asking so many questions in PM's. He could also be asking more questions in his PM 'spree' because he's excited to be an Eliminator. RP - not particularly alignment indicative. You get an upvote for that, though. I've still got to do mine - I have a whole mini arc planned out in my mind this time, unless it gets cut short... Bugsy, would you care to clarify this? On non-Bugsy matters: Araris is a weak eliminator read to me right now because of this, not so much as Bugsy, because it could just be an innocent co-incidence. If Bugsy is an Eliminator, though, then I'll do a more extensive analysis on his posts. I'm giving up on my plan, because it does have a fair few holes that I'm not sure how to fix. I partially realized this before I posted, but contrary to what Meta thinks, I've got many more early reads than I usually would Day 1, and for that alone I consider it to be worthwhile. (I'll do a more extensive analysis later, though, because more players do need to speak up.) EDIT: In regards to what Luckat said before me, I strongly disagree with the Awakened Rope in particular. If a Returned is Roleblocked, we know because it will not be announced in the thread that someone had their Breath stolen. Then, we can suddenly reduce the number of people who could have made the action down to about 2 or 3, which is extremely valuable information, particularly if one of them is under suspicion already, then we suddenly have found ourselves an Eliminator.
  10. Young Bard
    1. The same could be true of any lynch. This would basically be a lynch which saves peoples Breath instead of extinguishing it. 2. We're meant to be making the most suspect people give away their breath as it is. Them not giving away their Breath would (theoretically) just be one more piece of evidence against them. 1. That is a problem I realised a little bit after I posted, I have to admit. I've got something stirring in my brain as to how we could detect someone fake-claiming their lost Breath, but I can't figure it out. I'll have a fresh look in the morning. 2. I hadn't thought of that, which is a valid point. I'm trying to work out a les dictator-y plan, but I'm not sure how I could manage that. Again, I'll give it a fresh look in the morning. It does need a lot of editing for the plan to be feasible, though.
  11. Young Bard
    I had hoped to get this out before rollover, but I didn't succeed. Never mind. Here it is now, anyway. I've been reading the rules and sending El a number of clarifications trying to find a loophole. I'm not sure what I've got right now is the most efficient system, but hopefully someone can refine it. I propose that in the first 24 hours of votes are cast in orange. The person with the most orange votes at the end of the 24 hour cycle is then obligated to send their Breath to whoever had their Breath stolen, and we actually lynch someone else. If they don't send their Breath (evidenced by the person who had their Breath stolen dying), we lynch them next cycle. This way, we get twice the number of lynch targets, and keep alive whoever the Returned want dead (at least until they get a Lifeless Rabbit, but hopefully we'll be able to block them with Lifeless when it comes to that.) In the second 24 hours, the red and orange votes can be run in parallel. If the person who was leading in the orange votes falls behind, they can cancel their order and the new leader in the orange can place it (assuming they're online before rollover, which is the largest problem I see with this plan.) I'll try and rephrase this, because I don't think I'm saying what I'm trying to say all that clearly. Do you all understand what I'm trying to do? Any queries/amendments you'd like to make? Is there something I haven't noticed? EDIT: I should add that in the absence of someone who's admitted they've lost their Breath, then it should be given to whoever the most trusted villager that hasn't received Breath yet is.
  12. Young Bard
    1. I must have missed that post. I'm going searching for it now - if I'd known that you'd show up as Unknown, I'd never have bothered scanning you. 2. I'm sure he wouldn't have revealed himself unless he were certain that what he was saying is true. The fact that no-one even raised an eyebrow makes me suspect that the Converts are already so close to winning that they'll have a majority with my death. Killing a neutral won't help that. Even if you don't want to lynch Alv, any Convert at all would be good if you want to win... 3. You could also have claimed Miller because you wanted to make sure that if someone scanned you, you'd have an excuse ready... 4. This is your Convert win con, if I'm not mistaken. What's your alternate win con from before you became a Convert? They wouldn't need one - it might help, yes, but a lot of the time Eliminators can win even without a role scanner through role claims in PM's and so forth. Plus, I suspect Joe set up my win con so that I could work with the eliminators if I chose (their roles would be revealed upon a Jeskeri victory).
  13. Young Bard
    Also, there's not much to discuss. Usually, Day 1's are filled with poke-votes and introductory RP, but the Americans are in bed and it's a night cycle anyway, so no votes.
  14. Young Bard
    I generally am useless at getting analysis out of actual posts. Generally, the first Day I just spend joking around, and become more serious and down to Earth around Night 2/Day 3 when I can start forming links, patterns and work out who's what.
  15. Young Bard
    I'm getting a very strong feeling that getting very strong feelings this early is something Eliminators would do...
  16. Young Bard
    I was just joking around... Not much else to do on DayNight 1... Besides, the poke-vote couldn't be alignment-indicative seeing as I hadn't received my PM when I posted...
  17. Young Bard
    I think every game that we've been in together you've said I'm one of your strongest reads for an Eliminator. I'm glad you're being consistent, at least.
  18. Young Bard
    Alright. That's fine. Frozen Mint. (Because whatever colour I put people in is going to matter... )
  19. Young Bard
    Oh. Never mind...
  20. Young Bard
    Poke-voting: Voting on people to encourage them to post something. Usually done most often on Day 1.
  21. Young Bard
    Well, I guess I'll poke-vote @Frozen Mint since they're online and viewing the Signups thread.
  22. Young Bard
    That's a lot of if's there. And think about it this way. Say I attacked a Convert, and I were a Jeskeri. I wouldn't have known their role was Unknown when I was roleblocked, only their alignment. However, when I called out Alv, I specifically said that they had an Unknown role, and I was right. That would be a big leap to guess if he had been a village role, because I would have had no way of knowing. But I knew that Alv had an Unknown role, because my action was successful. EDIT: I'd just like to add that Alv was online "1 hour ago". I made my post accusing him, as it stands, "2 hours ago" (or 10:57 am AEST time, to be precise.) Any reason why you didn't respond, @Alvron
  23. Young Bard
    So... let me get this straight. The Jeskeri needed a role scanner to tell him who the other Jeskeri were? He couldn't have checked in his doc? That makes no sense whatsoever. The thing is, from what I understand, Jeskeri actions would fail on Alv and Burnt. My actions didn't fail - they succeeded. Had they failed, I wouldn't have known that Alv and Burnt were Unknown roles. They could have been protected by Legionnaires. They could have been immune to night actions. I could have been roleblocked. But I knew. How else could I have done that?
  24. Young Bard
    Strange... I thought I signed up to this days ago... If I didn't sign up, then I'd like to sign up now. I'll be Brick, an amnesiac who chose her name because she remembers nothing before she woke up in a bricklayers yard.
  25. Young Bard
    Lopen didn't tell you? Interesting. Win con: survive + reveal all Unknown roles in the game (So far, the Jeskeri Acolyte, Jeskeri Practitioner, Jeskeri Monk, Derethi, Korathi Patriarch and the Mad Prince have been revealed.) There is at least one Unknown Role left in the game (or else Meta forgot to tell me once the KP died), because I should have been informed once all unknowns have been revealed. And I tried to lynch you Lopen because I believed you were planning on killing me last night, which would have made me lose. So I was still going for my win con. Actually, I was wondering about whether you were the last Unknown, Alv. Conq revealed himself as the Patriarch to try and lynch you - why do you think that is unless he was lying? In addition, you claimed Miller to some people early in the game - why would you do that unless you were going to show up as an evil scan? I'll help you with your win con if it doesn't contradict with mine once you post it in thread, but until then, I'm pretty sure I can only win with your death.
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