Kasimir

I actually lean N1, but not very strongly. I've been slowly going over the past thread in a re-read and feel that D1 Archer still vaguely passes as Village but he just makes a massive volta at D2 - the Ruin hunting thing read of busywork and the thing LG94 has taught me about E!Archer and I feel is validated by this game is you don't TWTBAW him over busywork because he will make comments you think are pointless for an Elim just to do busywork. Worth noting that this is the VC that caught my eye: Archer leading over TBB and Archer voting TBB. Alpha ties it up by voting TBB. Creating a tie but opening the way to save Archer. Fifth throws in a weird Fadran vote that isn't particularly fluid. I can't say I have an E!read on Fifth at that juncture but I just don't understand the vote, and it's one reason I expect people thought Fifth and Archer were teamed (lol I geddit now; don't @ me I wasn't strongly backreading or vote analysing until today.) It puts TBB ahead of Archer, which at least expresses Fifth's indifference to TBB at that juncture, if he's going sidetrain. Note: Mat defends Fadran at this juncture. But nothing really comes out of it. I don't know if this feels E/E as they don't really exchange very much at that point. I feel there's also a bigger tonal shift in Fifth subsequently past this Day so I guess I'm maybe a bit willing to lean V!Fifth at this juncture. Don't feel strongly about it because N1 Fifth is whatever. Elan votes TBB, which more or less stacks the TBB wagon, making me wonder if there was an intention of preserving Archer here, though not strongly. In response, TBB votes Archer here, despite not wanting to. FWIW, Mat demonstrates a real indifference to TBB's fate here, though I suppose one could argue TBB was going to self-pres. He @s Wiz about changing his vote, which doesn't feel very teamed to me? IDK. I guess it's one of the few Mat vote sensitivity places I can potentially see. There's at least a lot of tonal indifference in Wiz's post and he stacks onto Archer, creating a close race. Interested if Wiz forgot ties don't kill because at that point, I absolutely had. Mat decides for no apparent reason that TBB is Village. While this could potentially open up room for a K!TBB, I at least feel that's a slightly risky D1 read, so probably no conversion on the offing at that juncture. IMO Elan's vote is the one that largely emerges as the one that saved Archer here and it wasn't even really intended to - everyone else was trying to kill Archer. It could have been meant as a safe wagon pad early on (safeguarding investment?) but I kind of don't really buy it. I will say it's a very noisy vote for Hoid, which almost makes me lean Hoid!Araris instead. I'll probably have stronger conclusions later on. I have this on my to-do list, in theory, but I'll see how far I get through them: Finish re-read Finish vote analysis Finish DeTess's 1V / 1E - been partway through the Steel game as I have memories of MR42 and the DeTess principle that TJ keeps citing Finish H/K profile + H/K team profile What can I say I guess I'm an Ambitious kinda guy. Wow this response to Elan just really segued didn't it rip sorry. Don't fully disagree about the possibility, feel Hoid!TBB is a bit bold/unlikely given TBB's obsession with getting a vig kill and subsequently, Odium charges to use on Avatars. He hasn't, but he's an odd case. Theoretically his shots are okay but I sort of think AC or at least...I just can't gut read him Village and it bothers me that I don't know why even though I also want to trust him. Sigh. Aman problems plague me into this game. Hmmm. I'm gonna regret saying this aren't I. The second factor I've been waiting on and that might have made a difference in my eyes is something I've noticed a little, which isn't strictly-speaking infallibly true. I'll preface this with the note that some Elims do try to take potshots at me before usually deciding I'm too much of a pain in the pula to exe and then trying to NK me. In general, I've noticed that for whatever reason, Elims tend to be faster to V!read me. Probably the polar opposite of TBB I think, because even in games where I feel my Village play is lacking (e.g. I think there's a good case to be made in this game for hesitation and Khriss alignment or just Kas = Aut), I've noticed the players who have the least doubts about the issue tend to have...certain clarities where alignment is concerned :eyes: i.e. tend to be Evil. I think Fifth and El had a long ago comment about being painfully Village but it certainly seems more painful for Elims There's probably a small set of players who I'd say just tend to read me right no matter what, which includes TBB and probably Drake as the latter has seen me play Evil behind the hood a few times. I had a slight + on you based off D4 and had some misgivings about the fact DeTess's read seemed to come quite quickly and didn't waver (keep in mind that both Mat and Archer chose not to brawl and were okay with V!me. I think Fifth might've brawled at some point but generally prefers to NK V!me so maybe not.) In LG93, TJ, Wiz, and Araris all didn't hesitate to strongly V read me really early on which is kind of kayana for a C1. I guess what I'm saying is: insertJaimeLannistermeme.jpg here and I'm looking forward to getting tunnelled on by all of you who want cheap V reads in the next game? >> /s See: I have a fairly solid V read on Szeth at this point, and Szeth has been non-stop tunnelling me in a sincere way. Alpha sort of did as well, and Alpha flipped V. There's been some PM paranoia from Wiz which I approve of, though I'm trying to decide if it's performative or not but still V!lean Wiz for the moment. Long story short, I'm Hoid hunting. Between Elan and Araris, I'm leaning Hoid!Araris. My narrowed Hoid pool is four candidates right now: <Elan, Araris, STINK, TJ.> I have a more paranoid Hoid pool but I'm not sharing that one. STINK would probably be lower on the list; Elan's voting is ? but I feel Araris has been under the radar enough to successfully slip past and an Archer convert feels in his MO. TJ's Kas = Aut paranoia could be legit but could also be Hoid just looking for a soft target. I could see TJ converting Archer, though it's not as good a fit - they have playhistory as well. I'm looking up Elan's playhistory but Archer is a bit off for her I think. That being said, I could easily see her going for Archer after GMing E!Archer a bit. I really low key want to make an Araris push today but recognise there's not enough appetite for it, and I can certainly see why going for the Elan train is more sensible. Just...I don't feel (sorry Aut) that we can afford to give up too much tempo right now. I think there's an excellent metaphor for this in the game Drake and I played at the start - I don't want the Elim rooks to link up and get tempo to hit us. We have to break them before that becomes a significant issue, since we're flying half a Village. @Elandera: In a V!you world, where do you think Hoid is? Or who are your AC suspicions, at any rate? Edited to add: I guess the other reason the Drake game was on my mind is I acknowledge Hoid hunting is risky because I'm essentially saying to pass up a sus player on the hopes of getting Hoid and that's pretty unconscionable, especially in the world the exe then MLs a Villager instead. And there's an argument for doing this the slow and methodical way. I just don't feel we can afford to let this drag out beyond two cycles, and two cycles is already pushing it. Keep in mind the hashtags: we're 14 v. 4 right now, but Fae, Stink, Walin, Wiz, and Turtle are virtually nonexistent, so in effect, we're 9 v. 4, and this assumes the Elims are onside. At maximum capacity, Aut's faction is at 7. I think there's still room for a ceasefire at this point but I think Aut is more acutely aware of the numbers than we are.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I've said this since the first Day: #autscrapparenting should be a hashtag ( @Ashbringer / @Amanuensis :eyes: ) because man do her parenting skills suck. (Sorry Aut, you know it's true.)

Depends I think. Similar to my comment about DeTess saying you could've gotten teammates on the Invention pull - I sort of don't think it's really that feasible because...well it depends on a bunch of questions I sent to Ash about OoA (sigh) but long story short, I was careful to say in thread that anyone showing up with that Shard would probably get some side-eye. That might not have been easy to survive. And if you specifically had gotten it, or hadn't but claimed it via your teammate, it would've been pretty damning to have shown up without it, given that Odium's Investment scan is world-locked, meaning Drake was only ever going to scan you, me, or Szeth. Not saying it's impossible, but it's dicey. And why not doubletap? Like Mat can double Siphon. I assume this gives him twice the odds. Set up their own Siphon on a Shard they want, Mat double dips with us. *Note I don't really know if this lets him get twice the Charges, double the Shards and tbh I'm too lazy to care about asking as Khriss is not my problem any longer There's a second factor. But I also try not to be too close-minded, re: what I said on Roshar. I've MLed Villagers before because I overcompensate for how easily I can be talked into/out of things and then go overboard and ignore everything they say and my own instincts. If she's V, I at least owe it to her to hear her out and do my best before exeing her. And I do think there's a second factor at play. But preferably waiting to hear from Elan before I mention what's been on my mind. FWIW, she's still very much within my Hoid PoE too. Will do. In front of the children? (Aut's Avatars.) For shame!

Consider it a healthy respect for your E!play. I'm traumatised by QF64. But you're also not on top of my list. OoA, friend. Drake's shot on Mat prevented Mat from siphoning as kill comes first on OoA. I'd bet Mat was pretty willing to do it since it was a guaranteed Shard and gave him an extra life. I will say this: I do feel her last posts has been tonally Village? IDK. I expect an Elim to have a tighter response, tonally, for want of a better word. And there's a reason I've been asking the questions I've been. But I thank you and everyone else for your patience and forbearance as I seek Valhalla Fair. Leaning more towards Sel at the moment but again, will communicate that better so we stop leaving people behind. I have a strong feeling for reasons I'm not at liberty to express that the Village's day might start to get worse from this point out. But I'm not all that sure of it and it relies on certain - assumptions and projections. I stand by what I said in Roshar: I've been clear to Aut that I recognise we're probably going to start to part ways near this point because, quite simply put, although Hoid might be very difficult to find, one fragile life between Aut and an all-out manhunt SD is probably way too close for Aut's comfort. But I reckon that's a Night problem at the very least. In that sense...Bah. No. Nevermind. But you're certainly right that the more Shards locked in there, the fewer we have to put back.

I'm willing to acknowledge that's a paranoid theory - in the current landscape, unless Elan says something extremely convincing, I'm not going to go for you first, and I think the correct approach is to go through the less kayana paranoid things first in general anyway. I admit one thought that does lurk at the back of my head is: I'm trying to conceive of the kind of team that converts Archer and apparently leaves you and me (and if you're right, TJ) unconverted. Leaving me unconverted is reasonable given Archer's mention of fears of neutrality - it feels like I was considered as a candidate before they worried I'd nope out and Intent Convert right out again with extreme prejudice, which, fair, my hatred for being Evil is very legendary. I'm a little more curious about what it says of the team state and choices if you and TJ are also unconverted, given this game landscape. One subbranch of that theory off Archer profiling does have you as Hoid. But I'll be the first to admit that requires some degree of paranoia as you instigated the Archer train. Part of the reason this is circulating in my head is I'm currently working based off what we know to see if I can build a team and conversion profile for both H and K teams. With the rampant inactivity among the Flatline Seven, I do question if they really were conversion candidates. But maybe they really are. Or maybe it's between <Araris, Elan, TBB.> IDK. I wouldn't mind if you and Drake/JNV were down for it, that being said.

Tbf if his team went after Invention, it would be pretty obviously him. He could probably maybe get Szeth to go for me, but IDK. Drake's just chilling and waiting for the gloves to be off v. Aut, and I sure know it wasn't me and we'd brokered the ceasefire/mild intel swap with Aut, so pretty much is traceable. I think. Not sure. I can at least be talked around into E!TBB based off a few things like reads consistent with Mat's, but I don't have a strong feeling about it. Inner circle issue is more a case of 'who ended up in rave doc' as I wasn't really planning on doing too much other than chilling and quiet solving there. And appreciated, thanks for taking the time to do both this and the reads. I'm V reading you overall FWIW but I also respect your play enough to believe I should ask some questions and cross-check some theories. Bet Fifth is laughing right now from the dead doc :eyes: But also, fair. Yeah, I'm curious about your basis for those reads. The conversion targets issue is partly why I've asked this question: I could absolutely see the teams diversifying their strategy so they do say two vocal converts, one low-lying one. Archer's and Mat's willingness to push away from vocal players in the discussion makes me think there's teammates or Hoid potentially hiding in that bracket. Admittedly apologies if I've overlooked some posts as I'm juggling a bunch of tabs at the moment, trying to...win a bet. I'll say this for TBB: his doc play felt very distinctive from when he was an Elim in...the Royalist Hawks? We were Hawks? I think so? - so I probably still lean a bit B overall but the consistent threads issue is what I find a tad fishy. That and a potential theory that Archer knew the vote was coming. I guess it's possible Aut did make her own deals on the side, of course. I really wouldn't put that past her given the intel swap in the first place.

I'm curious if that includes Archer having been a sacrifice because Hoid's team already knew this was coming. Side-glance at TBB. Probably just paranoid theorising, but still. I also have a low-key theory that you're Hoid, but I'm letting it incubate for the moment. I don't particularly disagree it could be informative and would be informative - I just don't always commit to infolynch if I believe the player in question is readable. I believe this is something Aman said back in 2021 or 2022 which formed quite an impression on me, which perhaps says something about me, as it should after all be pretty obvious. I'm not quite sure I'm committing to a full read on Elan yet but there are some factors I'm waiting to allow to play out. I'd like to ask you ( @DeTess just to make this line stand out a bit) what your current reads on Elan, TBB, TJ, and myself are. Could I also ask if you can refer me to one baseline V game and one baseline E game of yours? I've had LG94 and MR63 as references, but MR63 is especially short. I know I've GMed E!you before, but Striker ended the game in a single day I think so... Mat looking at the thread rn colorised: Specifically, I'm used to V!you opening a game with paranoia about E!Fifth. It's felt a strong part of your V!identity/play by now, and I remember it's been missing in your E games. It's understandable since he gulled you badly in QF45 and LG74 and the fact there's you only brought it up in response to people forming reads on Fifth on that basis seems odd to me. I'd also like to ask you, while I have your attention, what your reads on me, DeTess, and TBB are. @Szeth_Pancakes: Same question. Your reads on TBB, me, Elan, and DeTess, please? @Elandera I'm still willing to work on/buy a V!you world even though it would be very strange and my vote is not locked in. I'm interested in your current reads on TBB, me, Drake, and DeTess. What was the reaction test supposed to achieve, in your eyes? Specifically what did you expect to get that would indicate Mat's alignment? Mind if I ask about your reads on Elan, DeTess, TJ, and myself? And yeah, Taldain, though am considering Sel first (look I swear I'll communicate properly this time but I need to swap a charge.) I'll make a proper rave poster thing. Look. In all fairness, we know the correct optimal Village move is to continue to try to get a Shard. I think the correct strategy is to DAO it like what we did in Roshar. I can't deny this and I can't feel right about encouraging people to join the rave and chill. But I also don't really want to full Kas this game and while I haven't really been succeeding, I don't want to just completely throw that away either. @DrakeMarshall I will add I am re-evaluating Turtle but am focusing first on an Archer connection chart. I feel Hoid is findable, and that the purpose of the Day is to discuss and collect reads, so I'm going to try to keep doing that. Edited to add: @Amanuensis God of the Village I pray to u in this hour ;-; pls help i forgot how to play this game and question everything Edited to add 2: @DrakeMarshall Sir watch me win our bet :eyes: TO VALHALLA!

Join the party on Taldain? We gon' have a rave. Can't promise zero game talk though. Look the rave doc even has special formatting :eyes: Like, look guys. Basic SAN check here. 1. In any world, lynching an Elim - any Elim >>> Villager. This much is obvious. 2. Finding Hoid is a moonshot. (I agree. We do, however, have one AC flip via Archer.) 3. Khriss's faction has been severely weakened. 4. We have three Shards out of containment. I think we can agree to let Drake and JNV fulfill their wincons before this is achieved, though Drake is trying to avoid Intent Conversion so that's less of an issue if Frost does his job. I could don't say this, but let's be real, Aut has likely noticed this, and she knows this is happening just as well as we do. If Hoid falls, it's her next. (FYI: if Hoid falls, I am directly going back to the rave. I will help identify more Elims if we are cleaning house but I will decline to help find Aut for ethical reasons.) I do think this means we can likely/realistically expect less help from Aut going forward, and I wouldn't blame Aut as we all agree that this was a short-term alignment of interests. I will note JNV is still not done with their wincon, and since recontainment is within our control, we should commit not to redo containment until JNV has completed. I can understand relooking Elan in light of Archer connections but focusing right now on Team Khriss seems kayana to me since if we kill Hoid, the game is that much closer to being won/in our hands, forcing Aut and Team Hoid to act more aggressively. I'd normally agree Hoid is a moonshot (see #2), but we also have an AC flip via Archer, and I'd rather be focusing on Archer connections. Mat connections are useful IMO insofar as we want to rule out candidates. So in conclusion: ???

Yo wanna action trade :eyes: Edited to add: omg thank u someone gets it :sob: I am literally going with the flow and trying to refrain from Vmaxxing here and there you have no idea it's kayana Edited to add 2: Tbh. As much as this seems kayana... Someone tell me I'm kayana. There's one thing that has left me feeling a bit disturbed about DeTess and actually more positive about Elan. But it's just one thing and IDK how much weight to put on it. @|TJ| Where are you at rn with your reads. @DrakeMarshall

Agreed. This was my issue. I have certain theories about this, and I will say that my theories are in part why I E!read Mat and have Questions about Elan but I'd prefer to not spell them out too concretely at this point. It's also possible they're wrong anyway, as the N2 hit on Drake came from Mat's team, clearly. My view was that Araris was more likely to be an Archer teammate anyway, FWIW. Odd given there was no bus, but I just have a weird sense that we did get caught up on faction politics. Will also note that in an E!Mat world, E!TJ for Khriss credences rises a little. They've been Evil together before. I must admit your reluctance to sus Mat prior to N4 has made me unsure of you, but at the same time, you felt way into going for Mat this Turn, so IDK. I'm not a fan of Walin's clear lurking, but he wouldn't be the first player I'd choose to go for anyway, as I've already made clear in my ~LPLA argument last Night. I think CCing is just tempting but something to avoid. Mat's willingness to +1 and to keep framing Wiz sort of continues to keep me off Wiz. I feel he wouldn't have backed off Wiz so hard against my argument if so, given that he'd've been committed to distancing. (I am not FWIW leaning in favour of E!Wiz in any world: I accept it's a weak argument because I dislike apathy clears on principle but as a decent chunk of players in this game have joined the Cult of the Stick (as opposed to the Cult of @_Stick_), this is the best I can do.) @Ashbringer Lorn was spineless and refused to stand up to Frost when Frost first suggested violating 17th principles in releasing the Contained Shards. Haven't seen him, won't care to find him when there are better things to be done. Elan for the moment - the Wiz train just felt odd to me, as did the rapid train collapse. I'm willing to consider other options to diversify but need a quick break. Edited to add: Let's try this. @Turtle, @Walin, @Channelknight Fadran, @The Wandering Wizard: What are your actions so far? I see little harm in knowing about past actions, and it may very well be that we can get some piece of information or other that allows for cross-validation. To be fair, I'll offer mine: We might as well get actions out in the open and compare. Edited to add 2: FWIW my read of Mat's D3 is also an unlikely teaming with Szeth - he had no issues jumping on the wagon and switching freely between Szeth, Xino, and Araris which IMO points more to a lack of commitment/engagement, especially with how close the votes were at the end. If anything, I was the one defending Szeth aggressively, which is sort of ironic given Szeth was Mat's strongest V read but ok. Edited to add 3: @DeTess - Ignore previous comment, confused that with Archer's opportunistic hopping. Edited to add 4: How many times can I edit this post before someone else shows up? >> Timezones be whack man. Anyway: added comment - Team Hoid seems to have failed their grab too. Not too surprising I guess given the numbers issue. I accept Elan thinks LPLA is valid but I still feel it's too opportunistic a vote for me to not find it suspicious. Some shared suspicions between Elan and Mat also strike me as having a common thread, so I do wonder if there's some underlying reason, e.g. sharing a team doc, behind this. I will note (sorry @DeTess I've @ you so many times) that there is one reason I can think of that Mat might have ruled out Hoid!Fadran but IDK how likely it is and it involves a line of reasoning I am reluctant to use because it involves meta-reasoning about the GM, and Aman co-GMing this game might throw the estimate off. However, since Mat might have done so: It is theoretically possible that Mat might have guessed that Fadran was unlikely to be Hoid, due to not having that much of SE playhistory, and Ash tending to be careful in his rands. This game would break very fast if Hoid, Khriss, or Bavadin went to actual inactives or players with a significant history thereof, or players with no known history (potentially.) Just imagine what happens if Khriss were totally inactive for instance. One faction would totally not get off the ground. This problem has re-occurred before in games with key balancing roles, e.g. LG91's Stone Shaman could not go to an inactive player. IMO this take is at least partially validated by Mat being Khriss. I don't like this line of reasoning, because guessing the GM's own meta really isn't the point of the game. I just want to note it's possible. But I think Fadran has had two full SE games under his belt at this point, and in both games, he was V against E!Mat and - I almost want to say jokevoted him? I don't recall as clearly for LG92 but he was definitely way more active/engaged. I could see Mat converting Fadran given he also had Fifth and this would at least stop Fadran from going after him again, and people sometimes like to convert their friends /shrug Not sure this is worth anything, but I did feel I might as well point it out.

FWIW I am considering a world in which Fadran's inactivity is deliberate, though I almost feel he'd pop up more regularly. Missing a chance to snipe at Mat is odd, and Mat's V read on Fadran sometimes seemed a bit too quick.

All Drake. I know Drake wants to take this game easy/have his own fun/hunt Aut, so all I brokered was a potential ceasefire and trust Drake to do his own thing Edited to add: Worth noting that this implies Mat's hesitation/CW thing was for a player who...wasn't on his team?

Thanks Mr Hatoful Shard boi sir This will be brisk because I just got up and am grogu groggy but worst typo so lesgo Use Invention to fuel Charges, camp on Nalthis. Do not expect the IC of Invention to suck drastically, and Invention can fuel Odium Charges, roleblocks, or protects. Pretty much a swiss army knife. Edited to add: Does this imply there is no inactivity filter?

OG was for Invention. I'm going to kip too so I feel your pain. Meds making me drowsy >> Szeth et al can @ me I guess but I'm too tired rn this can be someone else's problem. Invention could theoretically solve our voting deficit and some Aut dependency problems, in a nutshell.

FWIW— I keep thinking on the Endowment jailbreak plan because I'm not actually sure it's as bad an idea. Suppose again: we know that the kills are with Drake and JNV. If Endowment gets hit, it's pretty indicative. We might regret Endowment's Intent wincon (I expect it's a double-edged sword) but we can also request Frost's protect or just play Shardic hot potato. If we play Shardic hot potato, Drake's request for protection from Intent Conversion is likely still doable. The bigger concern here IMO is Containment Watch is really powerful and so ideally we minimise occasions when it's not used. My hesitation primarily comes from the fact I expect Endowment to be a massive red line for both the Elims and Aut, potentially resulting in them allying to break the Village, but there's I suppose a decent case to be made that it's a rather provocative move that could have benefits in a world where the kills are known. My current Night Order is for the initial plan but I actually think it might be worth considering Endowment as a side project. Take with grain of salt because sick, on meds, and I like to live spicily sometimes.

Same tbh. The 'we' here refers to the Village from a Vmax perspective. You did say you weren't Vmaxxing so you might not care as much, and I tried not to highlight it because I'm also trying not to Vmax too hard this game. Results may vary. Yeah sorry bro. I didn't want to get in on the Shard business as it was the one final line I set for myself this game, but I guess that's how it is. Village guilt be real. Tbf last I checked Aut did get a bit shy. piano and VOCALS were a tad more forthcoming when other people weren't there :eyes: I think you make the call yourself. (A bit of an easy out for me, yes, but I also woke up sick this morning and the meds make me drowsy so am not terribly inclined to push too many things.) For what it's worth, I'll note that you might want one or two more people in the event of a roleblock, e.g. since Archer and Elan claimed one respectively, it's equally possible one happens, which would already kill all prospects of one. If someone not in the group gets the Shard in question, then that's probably sus. I'll further note if Mat jailbreaks that Shard, he gets Vessel Shield, which is ThugLife, so unless you expect to sweettalk Drake into continuing on his journey to SKhood by hitting Mat, be aware this will cause further issues with the exe. I don't V!read Mat, but at this point, I think it's a bit- I am not as attached to a Village victory at this point as I should be despite trying my best out of respect for Frost. I don't think the numbers change. If the Flatline Seven are majority Village, in most worlds, we're screwed anyway. I did try to strategise or outline ways for the Village to strengthen its position in the doc, but I don't think most of them are really practicable, though it's not to say we don't try anyway. So yes, I don't V!read Mat, but I feel it's a bit of a deal with the Devil either way, and let's be real, we've already made one with Aut so what's one more. But you should keep in mind that while you V!read Mat, it's not clear who else does, so even if at best there's a 3/4 - 3/5 chance that Mat doesn't get that Shard, you have to be prepared for the worst case scenario, which is that + DeTess still being down for a Mat exe. (Frankly I still am, but I also kind of don't want to keep pushing Mat/Elan if they really are Village so I'm taking a break to relook things and don't feel comfortable committing until then - still think they both seem E, FWIW.) ...As a pragmatic layer, I'll note this: even if E, Mat probably has a bit of a vested interest in playing along for now, and he'd be happy to wail on another E team, probably. I recognise I'm saying a lot of 'probablys' here, but...this is a faction game. For us, it's a V/E game with fancy layers, but the faction dimension does mean that just as we made a deal with Aut, we can also make a deal with one faction. We just have to keep in mind the ultimate endgame reality: Aut is aware we can't win with her, and E!Mat would know we can't win with him either, so it's a short term solution. /shrug I'll spell out my Aut gatekeeping issue at least, since I told the Roshar doc, and kind of didn't want to tell the thread: Aut made a c/p error in the doc in early game. I am thus aware of Aut's identity as well as capabilities. I don't feel it's fair to punish a player for that sort of pretty human error, and I don't think it's fair - or an earned solve - if I just up and told the thread who Aut is, since it'd be entirely off the basis of a c/p mistake. So I am refusing to seriously or substantively take the field against Aut. I have been trying not to admit to this publicly because I think it would just lead to players like Archer trying to play twenty questions with me to read who Aut is from my reactions, and I don't think that's fair to me or to Aut as I'd effectively have to shut up and stop playing the game in order not to give it away. I think the result is that Aut has been fairly relaxed around me since I already know a decent bit about Aut and have committed to not ratting her out. I'll further note the issue is less about asking us to side with Aut and more about Aut siding with us temporarily. I still don't buy we have the numbers to actually dominate this game - if we did, I'd have no qualms about arranging for a substantial Endowment and Honor jailbreak tonight and having whoever is eventually Endowment simply rez all the Village dead while Honor protects Endowment from potential reprisal, e.g. from someone trying to extort Ruin or Odium into hitting Endowment. So my policy is that I'm not going to make any serious or earnest Aut guesses and I'm not going to breadcrumb. I have every faith the Village, if* it gets its drek together, can handle Aut without me.

Sir I'm on vacation!

My official policy is I V!read Szeth and he doesn't me, and I'm on Vacation too, so I'm letting him make the calls, I just offer strategic advice and peace out anytime someone says Autonomy

It was true at least of the time of writing. May have gotten caught up in something else after that. I did highlight that getting Szeth and Drake on board would be A Problem With Drake specifying he was on Vacation. IMO what it is is pretty obvious, and if you bring Mat into it, you might as well just tell the thread and do a mass v!hammer. The downside is this substantively opens the Night for Elim action, which has problems of its own. I considered asking Araris which is ironic but I at least have a PM with Araris ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ We both agreed something was Definitely Not True, I'm not sure how you expected that to happen with actions economy. I suppose I could've warned you all but I sort of just figured you were all fine with it It's funny when it's not my problem yeah I'll note that if something is Definitely Not True, something else we actually really want to happen is also Definitely Not Happening, but also, Taldain? You still down for more rave? :eyes: Confirm or deny what specifically? You know my policy on Autonomy guesses. I cannot fairly help the Village on that front. Edited to add: I can confirm this whole operation was Szeth's idea I'm just joyriding for the lulz.

You ninjaed me so I just stuck it here Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice I guess let me put it this way. Obviously I'm not ruling out the worlds where you and Elan are Villagers with V motives in pushing that train. I just fundamentally don't fully buy that the E teams are majority LPLA at this juncture. I am, in fact, somewhat suspicious of players who push that line. Perhaps the Night's events will change my mind. But suppose I reject the LPLA hypothesis (which I think Archer and Fifth offer us at least preliminary reasons to do so.) Let's furthermore include TBB and Szeth in the ~(LPLA) set, just to be complete. I point out again that one dimension I kept emphasising that kept getting ignored yesterday, whether because inconvenient or otherwise: if you believe JNV was Village pre-conversion or that JNV is dedicated to their wincon, and if you believe Drake is Village (as you claim to), then the conclusion you are forced to draw is that at the end of N1, the Elims realised they had zero KP. They must surely consider that the subsequent destruction of Braize was a possibility, and I think we can now project that Fifth hurrying to Braize N2 was perhaps both a reaction to his Near Death Experience on D2 (and Death having a Near Fifth Experience) and potentially conditioned by the fear that Braize was going to get blown to bits by V!Ruin. (Or at least a Ruin they didn't control.) Even if you believe that the Evil players somehow had zero concerns about their lack of access to kills, you must also surely believe that Fifth's team at least, i.e. Team Khriss, must have taken one look at the fact JNV was on Braize and drawn a very obvious conclusion there. In other words, I think that if you are committed to a certain set of claims about Drake and JNV that seem to be pretty shared by a decent chunk of the gamne, then you're also committed to asking: what did the Elims do about it? The reason I don't like the LPLA hypothesis is that it supposes that as of D2, or latest, N2 (and keep in mind Fifth would have reported in then, so Team Khriss's conversion could already have been affected by this) - the Elims knew they had zero KP, one Elim team realised they were not even going to get to keep Braize, the entire thread was going on about LPLA and H/K/B, and...the Elims seriously did not even consider reacting either to their lack of KP (indicating a need to weaponise the exe) or the fact that everyone was flooding searchlights at the LPLA bracket? That kind of takes a very special sort of Elim team, to be so set in their ways. I don't find that really plausible. Or let's phrase it more bluntly: if, in this landscape, you are still predicting a majority LPLA team, then you're saying the Elims decided they were ok with no KP and that their main strategy would be to tank everything out even if they couldn't do anything about the lynch or the kills. (Perhaps they were trying for Dominion?) That feels like a very tendentious take to cling to LPLA. So let's pretend, for the moment, that I've motivated ~(LPLA), at least a little. Then the question is, who in our remaining set is sus? <Wiz (borderline case), Mat, Elan, DeTess, Kas, Szeth, TBB, Drake, TJ, Araris.> We've removed Fifth and Archer and found that they are with Khriss and Hoid respectively. Szeth was your top V read. If that hasn't changed, I don't think you object to removing Szeth. I certainly don't. <Wiz, Mat, Elan, DeTess, Kas, TBB, Drake, TJ, Araris.> We have to asterisk Drake - Fifth shot him, and he killed Fifth. Unless Drake claims Survival sometime soon, and arguably even if he did, it's just barely (because we know they are kayana gambit madlads) possible to believe that Drake and Fifth are teamed. Too much wasted effort for pointless distancing that resulted in the death of Fifth. <Wiz, Mat, Elan, DeTess, Kas, TBB, Drake*, TJ, Araris.> I'm not going to bother justifying the decision to remove myself. I'm just going to do it <Wiz, Mat, Elan, DeTess, TBB, Drake*, TJ, Araris.> TJ could be a Khriss Elim but I agree with DeTess's assessment: second voter on Archer seems pretty solid. You could argue in a H!TJ world he/DeTess got locked on and couldn't back off, and he has a known appetite for extreme distancing, so maybe asterisk him. But he has at least been consistent in flagging Archer - I distinctly recall him asking me for my views on Archer the previous Turn. (In fact, one of the reasons I suspect him of being a Khriss teammate is precisely because I usually remember him being more concerned about E!Fifth and was surprised he didn't sound out about that this time.) Similar concerns for DeTess. I'll give TBB some V credit both for willingness to kill Aut Avatars (partial because claims =/= actions) and RBing of VOCALS on D2. It's unnecessarily antagonising Autonomy for not necessarily much gain. Elims should be harder up on resources. I will say I have a slightly positive tonal/vibe read on him, but acknowledge world docs aren't visible at this point, so I can't really offer much convincing on that front except that he felt different from LG81 (?) - Steel's game, when he infiltrated my faction's doc as an Elim. I can't say much for Araris except that he fits on both a Fifth team and an Archer team, in my book, and he more or less was willing to offer a light V read of Archer using the exact same reasons as Elan. He had some small interactions with both Fifth and Archer that feel they could be potential distancing. I've made my views on Wiz clear. You can disagree with meta and certainly Wiz can change his meta, but I think patterns of behaviour/habits are strong, and he didn't even remotely react to a PM asking him about his views on the fact he was now a CW. If we're entertaining E!Wiz worlds, I'd note he fits on an E!Fifth team slightly better actually. Then, there's you and Elan. You can make a TWTBAW type argument about both of you voting on an Archer CW, but I think ultimately the question is: does Team Hoid not even remotely try, even a little? They can't win with Team Khriss, so losing one player puts them at a relative disadvantage against two teams. Even more so if Archer was their Face. I can certainly buy they didn't do anything, or a late bus /shrug With regard to Elan in particular, there's an interaction with Archer I want to chase back down, similar for you. I remember Archer pushing you to vote him, and I remember Archer pushing Elan for a while but I don't think anything came out of it. It might have a distancing vibe, it might not, so it's worth re-reading. As a reminder, if you believe this set is wrong, then the Elims have to be in: <STINK, Walin, Fadran, Fae, Turtle.> I don't rule out E!Walin - I find that last post fairly performative and a departure from his last stints pinch-hitting FWIW. Fae feels like a very rough bet given her history of brutal inactivity. Theoretically that should slow people down for Turtle but you never know. I slightly vibe read STINK Village but acknowledge it could go either way. I'm curious about your Fadran read. JNV left out for pretty obvious reasons. Edited to add 3 I suppose: Even if you would like to argue this is not a given, I will state that JNV told me that Fifth knew they were Ruin by the time they left. It may be possible to ask for a clearer timeline, but I won't remotely believe that Fifth didn't even suspect that JNV was going to blow Braize up as a possibility when he saw JNV on that world.

Rather, I'm saying that I agree with you that given it was clearly a voting bloc, it would've been harder for E!you to push back on that one, so arguably earlier bus or wagon innovation rather than just hopping on and seeming pretty disengaged /shrug Maybe. Not sure I fully buy that but I was considering an E!you world for other reasons, so. Edited to add: @DrakeMarshall - Put it this way. My view is the code is pretty clearly demarcated. It was meant to handle the Night without the Roshar doc. If you don't wanna, then you clearly don't wanna, whether due to just not being in the mood for it, or whatever but I'm finding it a bit hard to believe that you skimmed it and missed a bright green box and the section And memes.

Bro there's a literal section with a header marked Meme Code for you to indicate - we're running with that, TBB and I have already indicated our votes. I'll go PT if you don't wanna go OT. Edited to add: Thought you'd appreciate a more elegant memes of communication for a more civilised age tbhhh :eyes:

One more question: you mentioned several times that you see her as a N3 conversion. What're the factors driving this conclusion? I ask because I half wonder if she's Hoid.

Is there some reason you're prioritising Mat over Elan? Not sure I have a particular read strength difference, though I do E!read both of them in general to approximately interchangeable degrees given the choice of CW, and the general opportunism synch. I do think that Mat has a point, that given my vote heralded a triple bloc-vote from Roshar, it was probably clear that wasn't moving anytime soon. At the same time, I do find the quick diminishing of the Wiz train actually just as strange. I think if you get into the weeds of it, I could see a player genuinely convinced of E!Wiz arguing that the meta case isn't that decisive: there are departure points that are a tad harder to judge due to Wiz's rampant inactivity. I do think the ongoing strawmanning of the Archer case does also make me read the Wiz train more negatively, that being said.

Hmm. Fair enough.