Kasimir

Waaaaait you have rave quokkas? That's it u r my god now im down for the rave Best & last night in the world, Apocalypse Party & the worst hangover ever! lesgo :eyes:

Thanks for coming back alive! Would a brief summary of what's commonly-known at this point help you catch up? Edited to add: Good luck with your class final btw, sorry I misread!

I'm aware at least. I'm still going if Drake's down. Tbf JNV wanted to see a rave doc at least once so if they can't move, the rave doc should move to them.

u? aesudan? liar everyone knows good vorin women's dresses do NOT have pockets pockets are a lie made to scam vorin men how u gonna pocket absolutely everyone if u don't even have pockets smh i feel like fifth tends to feel he should solve problems by stabbing them, yes it's a character flaw wyrm bro is that way too what is with se and developing a whole generation of the socially mal-adapted? smh do u know unodus asked to be placed in charge of skaa relations back when we were playing heirs & wyrm made him the general of the armies :thinking: i feel like u need maybe a couple more datapoints bro then we can do the boxplot :eyes: sir sith lords are my speciality so basically the party that ends in the death star :eyes: we're partying right before alderaan gets nuked may the Force be with us hell yeah im down shoulda put it in an Extremely Secure Thread PM :eyes: best troll of all time >:D clearly its my line now :eyes: smh you have done that yourself!! i see through the lies of odium!! take a seat skywalker i asked myself how many prequel memes i could fit into this and the answer is: *slaps post* yes of course #moresecurethancrypto i had plans too! :sob: nice chill rpful game let the village do whatever screw the village :sob: im never gonna say the fourth ideal at this rate Stormfather sir have u considered consuming less iron in your diet 9 out of 10 coroners declared TOO MUCH IRON as the ultimate cause of Darth Plagueis's tragic death!!

also sir i kinda hope u don't mean ballroom dancing and literally crem probably how u get off on the wrong foot to start with :eyes:

you never know smh drake do u not know how to charm a lady or something :eyes: why is it that i have 2 talk u through how to approach Aut bro ur kinda screwed if ur askin me clearly the solution bigger & more bling she could never hate u if u made the whole doc comic sans with glitter and STROBE LIGHTS RAVE wait sorry im still in rave mode nvm we still on for Threnody then? 'cause ngl I feel I've done too much solving for the past idk man i feel like that police profiler meme sittin in my bootleg rave doc connecting link charts doing analysis wanna go rave? :eyes: like i geddit if u have 'stuff to do' mr batman sir but i came to have a good time & ending the world with a bang and the best rave ever sounds good to me i suppose it's my way of saying it was 5AM-ish and i wasn't really energetic enough 2 engage village strategist mode and also u know i respect the fact u want a chill game & didn't know if it's worth saying since, i mean, do u want to strat max or not so i guess im just sayin its not my call to make & im not the one to ask u pick the world bro: apocalypse party or no? i guess we could go back to Extremely Secure Thread PMs :eyes:

Idk why she's not talking to u then afaik she likes balls Tbf i'm fine with that but idk about u Would be a pretty thematic way to go yeah but u shld prolly ask the Village I m tired & life is tiring

You declared yourself her SK smh why would she talk to you >:( I certainly don't know about Araris rip U pick the rave world then, omakase. I have music and strobe lights :shades:

I'm cool with Threnody but you're gonna get roleblocked and yeeted somewhere random, you cool with that? It's being destroyed tonight. Also I tried wrt the discussion man. I give up. For Araris? I have a PM with Aut. Aut thought it was worth saying. I also have a PM with Araris who mentioned it.

Yes, in this context, I'm preferrring to analyse if a V read comes too quickly, or if an E read feels more sincere, e.g. with Szeth. It's difficult to maintain the suspicion in an authentic way through a doc, especially if it's just a suspicion of convenience. Ultimately I feel TBB is a bit too quick to push you but players who over-obsess on reasoning and don't look at context - well, he's in the bracket. Rigidifying is normal for him so I question how AI it is. FWIW I still tonally read you Village and struggle to see which team you fit on (which IMO is itself a warning sign) but also feel the LPLA profile voting and just in general Archer CW definitely felt more sus to me. Though I'd also note that I was probably never going to be a good convert for way too many reasons, inclusive of MR62 and my general dire warnings of either defecting as a neutral or juist outright not caring. Edited to add: @DrakeMarshall - Sir, you good with having the rave on Sel? I was going to send in an order for Taldain seeing as I didn't want a mis-synch but I see you are here and I sort of would like to get an unwanted Charge changed >>

Fair, but you did slant it towards Archer over Fifth, which makes me wonder if you can fit in on the Khriss faction. Based off LG93, I know now that you have no issues calling your teammates Evil and sussing your own teammates because you just go with the flow, so I place more emphasis on the fact you were focusing on Archer over Fifth. That Evil gut on Mat seems to have been suppressed subsequently for quite a bit as well, then skewed a bit positive subsequently. I guess some of it would depend on Elan's flip but Elan being on Team Khriss would be odd. Edited to add: I remind you you spent a significant amount of time trying to tell me Araris was Evil... Edited to add 2: IMO your biggest disqualifier from Team Khriss would be not knowing about the Braize Shooter. But again, I question if that's a deliberate derp knowing how often I've derp-cleared you.

Might not be worth much coming from me and I know what happened. It wasn't Szeth who tried to target Drake, and the player in question should know better. I can't say too much to the thread, but unless I am vastly misunderstanding the situation, it has to do with Frost and what Frost tried to do and it was not a roleblock. I'd like to say more but I'm not really the guy who should be commenting on the situation too much as I understand Frost is leery of the whole thing. I also don't have the right to reveal this. Edited to add: I'll note this doesn't have to do with Roshar doc stuff, just a bunch of fairly obvious inferences. That and the fact I respect the desire for secrecy but also feel lying to one's own teammates potentially causes the Village to run down false trails in excitement so I prefer to moderate this impulse given how Aman, Drake, and Fifth more or less lied the Village into confusion and then gunned down some other Villagers in AG9. If this was a reaction test, my bad Edited to add 2: @Szeth_Pancakes - P.S. If Big G has that Charge still, might be worth burning Day action on it properly.

A player on Silverlight can target on any other world. There is no reason that player shouldn't have been on Silverlight to begin with. Edited to add: And players on any other world can also target Silverlight with no problem. So Silverlight-Roshar is okay, Threnody-Silverlight is ok, but not Roshar-Threnody.

@DrakeMarshall Ok bro IDK if you'll see this in time to change orders But as I really want a rave and clearly the last time u logged in we were goin to Taldain So I am sticking to the plan, Taldain it is I can worry about Sel some other time Let's jam on Taldain >:P final answer p.s. no one @ me this guy missed Silverlight I am not doing this again

Long story short, Drake is sort of stranded on Roshar right now, TBB recruited Mat into the scheme as a sort of 'why not let's just try it' and reaction test, and Drake shot Mat dead. But I also sort of asked as a bit of a theory (with regard to DeTess v. Elan) as some Elims tend to be quicker to V!read me, and I wanted a baseline given your strong E!read of me in the earlier cycles, so RIP It Did Not Work This Time but it was definitely the case in LG93. For anyone who wants to have fun profiling Mat as a converter: QF62: So going down the playerlist: I think we can try to cull a pool of prospective teammates here, and I don't really care if no one else is interested, I at least certainly want to try. Let's subtract me - it's clear from Mat's reasoning above that he'd probably consider both my antipathy and my stated desire to chill (even if we know I fail awfully at it), plus concerns of me just being a bad Elim and also actually taking exception and defecting to neutral. <TBB, Wiz, Szeth, TJ, DeTess, JNV, Fae, Drake, STINK, Elan, Araris, Walin/DrakeI, Fadran, Turtle> Let's subtract DeTess. This is a bit more controversial but: DeTess was willing to go for Mat over Elan, and if they were teamed, I'd argue that DeTess would prioritise Elan, because you don't kill Khriss who has a double siphon over a normal teammate. In addition, as Mat's conversion profile indicates, he likes to keep vocal defenders unconverted, and DeTess was probably the biggest proponent of V!Mat. <TBB, Wiz, Szeth, TJ, JNV, Fae, Drake, STINK, Elan, Araris, Walin/DrakeI, Fadran, Turtle> I'm going to remove Szeth. While Mat defended Szeth as his strongest V!read, that was pretty blatant. Szeth's push on me N2 and constant suspicion of me throughout the following cycles (Roshar was tiring y'all he was constantly sussing me) seems more sincere than feigned. In general I just have a positive meta read on Szeth. <TBB, Wiz, TJ, JNV, Fae, Drake, STINK, Elan, Araris, Walin/DrakeI, Fadran, Turtle> In theory, Drake could be a convert who decided to Intent Convert (I guess?) and take bloody vengeance. But I kind of don't think Drake is the sort to do that to his team for lulz without warning (well I guess there was his Palpatine game but still) and also I kind of feel he'd probably use the kill more aggressively rather than requesting conversion protection from the Frost line of contact. Drake also noted he's not E!reading Mat. For that reason, let's take him out too. <TBB, Wiz, TJ, JNV, Fae, STINK, Elan, Araris, Walin/DrakeI, Fadran, Turtle> Subtract Fae, DrakeI for similar reasons: keep in mind Mat's ideal profile is a player whose capabilities are known but is low profile. This doesn't really gel well with Fae and DrakeI because there's just no known playhistory. (I'd argue similar for Walin - they haven't really had positive interactions given Walin's tendency to inactivity.) <TBB, Wiz, TJ, JNV, STINK, Elan, Araris, Fadran, Turtle> Let's take out Wiz. I don't think Mat seriously jumps onto Wiz as a CW and then immediately jumps off again at the first sign of a committed argument: if it was distancing, he should've stayed put to milk it. This is indicative to me that Mat didn't particularly care about Wiz. <TBB, TJ, JNV, STINK, Elan, Araris, Fadran, Turtle> JNV is a clear no IMO. Clearly in their Village meta, and having gotten Ruin N0, there's no real window for conversion. <TBB, TJ, STINK, Elan, Araris, Fadran, Turtle> We are assuming full conversions here, FYI. Of the remaining: Mat was willing to third vote Araris on D3 close to EoD but soon jolted off and wanted a Wiz CW but hopped off onto a Xino CW that TJ and I were on. In my eyes, that implies that there was no real commitment to Araris suspicions, which could be either pro forma distancing, or simply indicative that there was no sincere suspicion there. Given his self-professed claim of Szeth being his strongest V!read, I lean towards this probably not being extreme bussing. Names TBB and DeTess as prime suspicions from the Archer train. Given the flak TBB is kind of receiving from everywhere, leaning against Khriss convert. Mat had that aggressive V!read of TBB all of a sudden on D1 which felt a touch like attempted pocketing. I think there's also @DeTess's reasoning that E!TBB sort of just covertly invites buddies onto the Shard heist. Which...I can kind of see and can of not. I am alright with an E!TBB world but wouldn't be my first port of call. Overall, TBB's D2 RB and willingness to Odium shoot Avatars still gives him some Village cred in my eyes. Mat's comments on TBB from his profile indicates this is probably not a shout he'd favour. STINK really has no interactions, but if Mat remembers LG74 and MR56, he'll remember that makes STINK a tough nut to crack and that STINK will put in actions, so given Mat's philosophy, that might have been a call he'd make. Elan feels like a weird shout for Mat TBH but I just struggle to see her on either team. Archer is the one with the weird Elan interactions so I'd imagine I could see Archer more: Mat saying he felt E!Elan doesn't work with E!TBB and E!DeTess could be an attempt to leave her for last or to stake her out after gunning for DeTess and TBB first. Inconclusive. If you believe early Mat had at least one V!read on a teammate, then it's likely either Elan or Fadran IMO, with Turtle a distinctive third. Don't quite think he hid them all in nulls. Mat GMed Turtle in QF63, so might have remembered Turtle's whack Elim play in that game. But if Mat wasn't going for Alpha, tbh Turtle feels like a rough call given consistent inactivity (see Mat's comments on TBB from his profile.) I will say Turtle seems strangely invested in staying alive for a player who also isn't bothering to play the game subsequently. Fadran - mostly feels like an affinity + stop poking me conversion. He's worked well with TJ before, and TJ was sussing Mat, so he might be a decent conversion candidate - stacking onto the D4 Archer train doesn't functionally matter here. TJ @ing me about Archer rather than Fifth and finding Archer more Evil than Fifth feels a bit like a deflection move, potentially, to save a teammate. Focus on Aut!Kas theories could be TJ deflecting and trying to move attention away from the two Elim factions. Gauge <TJ, Elan, Fadran> as set of likely converts, but rest should not be excluded. TBB probably not except in paranoid worlds. Fifth might've influenced recruitment, tbf. As a side-comment, while digging for my thoughts on the final composition of Team Khriss: It's an interesting transition from voting with this guy and defending him D3 to wanting to kill him N3 and it doesn't feel sincere. I wonder if there's some distancing involved. Drake and TJ have a good interaction here that also points to potential E!Araris IMO: tldr; I never want to be saying Araris delenda est but I don't really feel that Mat is completely likely to convert in the Flatline Seven apart from <Fadran, STINK, Turtle> but Turtle is unlikely. He emphasises wanting teammates who'll be around, which IMO is a soft strike against Turtle, and a harder one against Fae and DrakeI/Walin. <Elan, TJ, and Fadran> look like potential candidates and I can see Fifth advocating for Elan or STINK. Also, Araris delenda est, but for Hoid profile reasons. I think there's a secondary Khriss profile for Araris but overall, it's more Hoid. Edited to add: I suppose the one point in TJ's favour is apparently knowing nothing about the Braize shooter, but I question if that's a deliberate derp.

He Fifth, he dead. Had better stay that way. Bro is bro but Evil is Evil there can be no redemption >:( Edited to add: Like I grant maybe it was my TMI since Ruin spotted him on Braize but he was seriously radiating FAFO energy with how fast he glommed on to the Braize shooter and then insisted we focus on why Drake survived rather than who made the shot. It's why I encouraged JNV to come forward - because Fifth both spotted them on Braize and learned they were Ruin from the Braize doc. That's also why I aggressively rejected low profile low activity lynches - I felt that absolute latest as N2 was ongoing, Team Khriss at the very least knew that not only had they been beaten to the kill Shards (Ruin IMO is very likely Village, and Odium has killed too many Khriss-teammates to be Team Khriss, and if he is on Team Khriss and wants to Intent Convert out, you know, I'm down for that?) [Edited to add: but that Braize was also going to be destroyed.] How in that landscape when you realise the Village has an absolute kill monopoly do you justify going completely low profile converts? It's why I disliked Elan's push for Wiz, in a nutshell.

Bhai are you frickin' serious. You are trying to get me to derp clear you aren't you. Edited to add: @|TJ| Bhai this is u right now:

Analogy only works if the Village can afford the time. My assessment is that it cannot. I rest my case. Ruin has offered to forgo their win con. I've said I don't consider this an acceptable sacrifice. Rather, I am H!reading Araris anyway but if you think Drake could be AC!Odium, and if you think Aut has incentive to move against us soon, then this should be a concerning development. 1. Turtle as Hoid Candidate I'll note I have Turtle as a subsidiary Hoid candidate - Archer's D2 Turtle vote didn't feel that committed, early Turtle's hard to read but their early fixation with Archer being potentially Bavadin never sat well with me and my comment D1 that I would not have been voting Archer at that point was meant to imply I'd've straight-up voted Turtle. Their fixation on Aut reads like a potential slant an Elim might take, given that Archer was also anti-Aut subsequently, and Mat also tried to emphasise both the factional nature of the game and the doomed nature of an Aut alliance. (I grant all these points tbh - I just think we needed room for Drake to move freely and us bickering with each other gives the Elims room.) Archer straightup unvoting Turtle for not understanding the Elim rules doesn't made sense since Turtle would've had a teammate by then. And it can be perceived as Archer pulling back after sensing the distancing vote went wrong. This timeline requires Archer to have been converted N0 and I'm not sure that's all that plausible, though. Turtle does demonstrate familiarity with the rules very early, but arguably Hoid would need to know that more than say, a regular Researcher. (Not decisive, but noting.) I also disliked that Turtle at no point bothered to intervene over a faulty V!read of them: I predicated it on them taking the RB action you took D2, but they, having claimed to have taken zero action, said nothing to defuse the read. Turtle vote in question: Note I'm willing to buy E!Archer by this point. This is D2 and Archer's Ruin seeking feels like the indiscriminate busywork he promotes as Evil. (Look I can't remember if I typed it here or Bootleg Rave Doc or GM PM, give me a break if I've said this before - TWTBAW applies poorly to Archer in busywork mode.) Fifth joins to 'widen the pool.' Unlikely that Fifth/Turtle are teamed. Potential Fadran teaming as Fifth essentially drops Fadran thereafter and never mentions Fadran ever again, and also chooses a Turtle vote over a Fadran vote. Not sure what to make of Mat slowwalking the Fadran here but FYI reminds me of an interaction I had with Mat in LG94 C1 when I was arguing Alpha was in clear departure from his standard play: Here's a check at the vc at the point Turtle says they don't want to die but refuses to self-pres (FWIW I don't think anyone who has played QF63 should ever take refusal to self-pres as a sign of V!Turtle.) Archer unvotes in response to Turtle expecting a tie and votes Fifth. That's just odd - it's D2, there are two Nights of conversions (N0, N1.) How the hell is this not knowing how the Elim rules works? This is just downright weird reasoning unless I'm drunk. The fact this went unquestioned makes me feel like I was drunk through most of the game. This, next to manifestedly sus D2 behaviour from Archer, makes me feel that he could be protecting Hoid!Turtle. Or teammate I guess - IDK the main thing stopping me is I struggle to see Turtle converting Archer, but I've never been very good at threat modelling Turtle. 2. Araris as Hoid Candidate Araris as Hoid candidate makes a certain amount of sense: he's been flying under the radar (as usual), there's a logical reason he'd convert Archer (team dynamic and a clear appreciation for Archer's E!play. [I'd argue, on the side, that Mat is a desire/sentimental converter to some extent: Fifth reads like a 'I want to be teamed with this guy for once' convert, he converted Silho after their previous game together, and I could see Fadran being a similar convert. I need to pull up Mat's conversion psychology from QF62 again smh. Anyway not that relevant here.] Day One VC: Day Two VC: Next to Elan, his voting record is more persistently on side-trains: I'd argue that's the perfect place to avoid flak. He picked a weird meta reason to vote on Szeth as well, which explicitly backed/cited Archer's line of thought. I think it struck me as an odd vote because it just failed to take into account Szeth's player profile, and so felt more like a vote that was there for the purpose of existing. Day Three VC: I am going to run out of colours aren't I. Sigh. Anyway: both of them are on par on D3. I think D3 is worth unpacking more. I still read Szeth as V overall. I've made the case for V!Szeth enough times, I'm not going to keep repeating myself as this post is long enough already. As Drake pointed out, it does matter if you think D3 was V/V/E or V/V/V. Interestingly: Archer votes on Szeth. Which means, I think, we want to look at the trains of D3 more closely. It's certainly the case that Archer and Araris have both (as of D2) expressed Szeth suspicions. But since Araris was a viable candidate at one point, we want to actually follow the vote counts. Archer makes an uncommitted poke on Elan but chooses to vote Walin for what I found at that time to be slightly V. Walin's continued lurking has changed my mind, FWIW. Fifth bringing up the spectre of remaining conversions IMO is straight Elim playbook for reads erosion and fearmongering. I inaugurate the Araris train. Archer does vote Elan at this juncture. Potential wagon dilution tactics? Very beautiful state of voting, guys Worth noting: Archer does note that Araris has RL impacting activity. Araris replies shortly: Mat votes Xino. Elan sheeps that and votes Xino. Meanwhile, shortly after, Fifth votes Araris for the post linked above. For...wanting to start PMs? Mat claims it's not V!indicative of Araris and has him in yellows. Araris and Xino become tied for lead trains. Szeth sheeps Archer onto Elan. This ties the votes yet again because every hour takes us further away from God. I swap off onto Wiz, feeling bad about heckling Porch Bro. Xino and Elan thus become lead trains. And Araris votes Szeth again. DeTess votes Araris for what she feels is a perspective slip. This ties up the votes again. With DeTess's willingness to push Elan, doubt they are teamed. Archer V!reads Araris for "being cool with dying." This is sort of weird because you never really get much of a response from Araris by voting him anyway. He's infamous for that. TJ creates a four-way tie by voting Szeth with Araris. And TBB breaks it in favour of Szeth. Araris challenges why people are opposed to Szeth, while TJ wants to know why Mat and Elan are voting for Xino. Key moment here: Mat votes Araris, tying Szeth and Araris in the lead. Shortly after, Wiz votes TBB. Side-train hell voy. Archer breaks the tie onto Szeth. It's certainly consistent with his D2 Szeth so far. But this also has the effect of kicking the can away from Araris to keep him a bit safer. Ties don't kill, but Mat just demonstrated that the Araris train was still viable, after all. Wiz then further pads the train by stacking yet another Szeth vote. Note: I don't tonally/meta E!read Wiz but I am really not fond of his votes. I'm not really interested in the rest of the EoD shifts as they concern Xino v. Szeth and Mat pulls off Araris - whom he was willing to endanger anyway so I see them as less likely teamed. Takeaway from D3: Archer is defensive of Araris in voting, and by stating both that Araris had RL, and that Araris's willingness to die made him Village. He had him moderately high in reads. He's caveated and at the bottom but in top reads. D4: Araris doesn't vote. He could be busy (fair, but that doesn't impact his alignment. You could make a meta argument I suppose on whether Ash and Aman would make Hoid a player who explicitly stated they were going to have early activity issues, given how crucial Hoid is to the overall team integrity. But I don't know we want to go there. Still, I'll flag it as a potential defeater to Hoid!Araris.) I'd note however that seeing the votes stacking up on Archer (remember we ended up with a 6 vote train and the votes mostly stayed), Araris could also have decided it was better to simply not participate - as LG82 shows, Araris's E! vote calculus tends to be based more around 'does doing this look sus?' which was why he bussed Sart that game in a three way tie with two others teammates: he simply calculated it was more suspicious to pull off Sart. Araris did note in PMs that he had a light Village read on Archer going off D1, feeling that Archer was too casual early on to be Evil from the start, and that Archer nearly being exed on D1 made him a poor convert candidate. This partly parallels Elan's defense of Archer. That's what I've got: I think the profile fits, Araris kept a positive read of Archer (you could argue I suppose that E!Araris would have bussed hard there, but he replied between these two posts: I don't feel fully confident in saying E!Araris would have bussed there: I think this at least looks like some form of connection going on, and having a V read but not intervening is also an odd look.) So nothing to do with Araris's worldhopping: I just had been constructing the profiles and trying to figure out who would convert Archer and realising Araris showed up on both my H/K tables but works better with Hoid than Khriss. There's an Araris-Turtle interaction I noted somewhere btw but this post is long and I'll fish it out again later on. Might've been via Archer, or Turtle-Araris instead. Edited to add: I'll note STINK and Elan are both still in Hoid profile as well. Just feel that the connection is clearer in the case of Araris and Turtle.

KIV that if they shoot the inactives, Ruin's wincon gets pushed further back, and Odium almost certainly Intent Converts, giving him another wincon that will take time. Frost can't re-target twice in a row so the cost of shooting them is time, and when we are close enough to fulfilling our wincon, both Shards then have an incentive to start pruning us to slow things down. Shardics being limited to one a cycle is such a damn pain in the pula... Edited to add: Feels like one way or another we have to be ok with an endgame sitting tight (at least the Elims have no kills, or so I hope), and waiting for them to complete (Ruin for now anyway) and paying with an extra cycle everytime we ask for a kill.

It is: my worry is we simply don't have the time to hit the Elims through extended cycles before losing any momentary advantage. Suppose we make perfect lynches every cycle - and suppose Drake makes a perfect hit tonight and then doesn't. (Either RB hell, or worries of IC, take your pick.) There are 5 Elims left assuming maximum conversions (2 Khriss converts, Hoid + 2 Hoid converts.) So two go down this cycles, but then we take three more cycles to resolve the rest. We then go against Aut at a player cap of 9 v. 7 (by then, Aut will be at full Avatars for a cycle now.) That's in a perfect world, where we maintain the ceasefire and no one makes any mistakes, and we chainkill one Elim after another. That feels a bit too tight for comfort, and assumes the Elims don't desperately try to link up. It also (IMO) doesn't take into account how painful this will get if we start having to shoot among <STINK, Walin, Fae, Fadran, Wiz> (I note I still V read Wiz at the moment, but Fae, Walin, and Fadran are substantive problems - usual CC woes.) Essentially in this game, as much as I hate to admit it, Aut is still a long-term threat. The world in which the Village and Aut can win together exists but is so small and requires so much improbable things happening I don't see it worth bothering unless we happen to get there. If Aut has any kind of accelerant that I'm not aware of, e.g. SD Charges on inactives less likely to speak out, we have less room for error than expected. I can respect the desire not to lose a Villager to a gamble rather than a sudden hit - the realisation that actually since inactives are not being removed in this game, non-verbal players could be stocking up Aut Charges is what made me significantly more concerned about whether we do have a tighter timeline than expected. That's when I started rerunning the numbers to see if we had a tighter timeline than I'd assumed. I'd expect Fae and Walin or even Fadran to be bigger risks in that world, as they've said functionally nothing, while STINK has been showing up in thread. Turtle hasn't appeared but had an intense Aut focus for a while (including the early 'if Archer is Bavadin this matters' line of thought which made me think they were Hoid or Khriss early on.) I will say in all fairness that Aut has told me directly that she has no intent of handing out Charges this early or having her Avatars do anything kayana. But I also would not expect Aut to be fully truthful with me early on, especially since we both accept our wincons are not compatible save extremely crazy scenarios we aren't going to bank on at this point in time (has to do with timing the SDs, don't even bother, frankly.) I think the biggest flaw in my strategy you can pick apart is: suppose Araris is a hit this cycle and we do get Hoid. (Ideal, and I think between him and Elan, he's more likely Hoid, but still. I accept I could be entirely off with that.) The Village now has to shoot Aut, which is...well, good luck? And if you do shoot Aut, you then have to hope the Shard ends up with someone who is willing to put it back. A spicy Villager Intent Converting could push everything back, as Intent Conversions for Aut can be done in <3 cycles. Then we are left chasing new Aut, while the Hoid and Khriss remnants are also trying to win. Either way, logistically, we are committed to playing the game for at least four more cycles. I am not willing to advocate for any plan that allows us to win without Ruin. I accept Ruin chose to IC of their own accord, but given Ruin's willingness to be generally pro-Village (e.g. being willing to spend some time taking Village-called shots if need be and to agree to destroy worlds we are less invested in), that's very poor payment, meaning one way or another, we are stuck having to resolve the Elims anyway. I guess in that world, I've talked myself into being okay with an Elan hit. But I still don't really feel comfortable with the timeline. But I'm not cool with us punishing Ruin on this, so I guess the answer is a no unless we go straight for Aut and that is even more kayana than giving up an Elim shot. So I guess I'll grudgingly go back to Elan. P.S. You might want to ask @Araris Valerian as well as he's currently sharing a doc with Aut and Drake

Question for you. How many Aut Charges do you think Fae is carrying by this point? (I don't say this because I genuinely believe that Aut is doing this, I'll state upfront. I'm saying this to make a point.) Get some good rest. Edited to add: Yeah, you know what, I give up. I can't do this and feel ethical about it. I'm just going to shut up and let the Village burn itself. Edited to add 2: They don't have to refute it - they just have to offer us - via her - a temporary alliance against Aut and see if we take the bait. Given that an optimistic estimate puts us at about two cycles to needing to go our separate ways, it wouldn't be the worst offer. Theoretically a Khriss!Elim could do that too but I don't really believe they have as much to offer. Drake has made two full kills now. Suppose Frost protects him tonight. (There's an argument Frost is better off doing other things, but that's arguably not very fair to Drake given he didn't want to go SK and made the kills on the presumption of IC protection.) Either Drake doesn't kill tomorrow Night, or Drake ICs tomorrow Night because he doesn't have any more road and Frost can't do this twice in a row. Assuming he doesn't become RB central. One way or another if he converts, he more or less has a different wincon to focus on, and just as with JNV, can't expect as much help as we currently have. It's only good for us in AC!Drake world where he has an exotic choice to make My point about Fae, Walin, Fadran, and to a lesser extent, STINK and Wiz is that non-vocal players who keep reading the thread but otherwise don't exist are functionally Charge sinks. It's riskier with STINK and Wiz, but nothing has gotten Walin, Fae, or Fadran to return to life and Ash is declining to institute an activity filter. In other words: we simply don't know - and won't know - how many Aut Charges they can carry, and it's a fool's bet they've not moved off Silverlight (btw, thanks for doing so, STINK.) I simply don't think we have the time to do this the slow and methodical way, given that one way or another, Aut is technically a hardcap on how long we can take. But also acknowledge even if the Village exes Hoid and then Aut, it's hard to see us not playing whac-a-mole with the missing Shard, especially if - Ado help us - we deal with a player who gets cute and tries to Intent Convert while there are still Elims to brawl. I'm also deeply concerned about certain things going on with Araris at this point in time. All of this is moot until/unless Aut calls the deal off. But given all the factors, it's hard to see how much longer it'll go on for, and once Hoid dies, it's a definitely no. I'm going to apologise for my bluntness. But I do think - for the record - that your confidence in the thought we substantially have the power here - borders on arrogance. Edited to add 3: FWIW - I recognise I'm giving mixed vibes here about Aut. I think it boils down to: I trust Aut insofar as the ceasefire/deal is concerned, I trust Aut to act in Aut's own interests, and I feel obligated as a Villager to advocate for us keeping an eye on our wincon and I don't feel confident we can do it if we take the scenic route. We might be able to, but it's risk of a different sort. The last chunk of it is what probably any player with me from Steel's LG87 remembers, which is that even though Clanky and I weren't bros, I'll feel very bad for the poor lost SK puppy (in this case, SK without a kill) and try to adopt it and take it home even if it'll probably end badly for someone ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

RIP, rough weeks are the worst. Edited to add: Gonna say something I never thought I'd expect to say. We may have to consider shooting Fae, Fadran, Walin, and STINK eventually.

I think the one question I do have in a Hoid!Elan world is: wouldn't the team fight the exe more? I guess bussing matters, but - I suppose there's the flip side, which is: do you expose Hoid to save Archer? I feel like it's effectively the other way around. With so few Shards on the loose, wouldn't the team be more aware of the fact that they can't afford to give us a clear road to our SD? Elan Not sure I like this. IDK. I guess I have some time later to think about this but the heart wants what it wants despite knowing this is a moonshot. And despite knowing that the road to our SD is a bloody mess. Araris.

She's not your Hoid candidate then? FWIW I take back the Hoid mention. Think we have to do this the slow way. There was something pretty important I forgot.

AC being Hoid's faction. Araris is a busser, but has also calculated before that it's more suspicious to join a train. There was a solid anti-Archer majority, which coupled with RL busyness, might make me believe it's plausible. TJ being second on the Archer vote dampens the Hoid possibility. Then of course there's DeTess's answer, which is you and the Wiz wagon. I guess I could see STINK just leaving it be as Hoid but not sure. That being said, I'd like if we not break the ceasefire. I have thoughts on the issue I suppose. But this is moot for the moment anyway since the relevant actions really kick in at Night. @DrakeMarshall @STINK @The Bald Brandon @Anyone Else Interested: DAOist traveling circus is going to SEL (pls lemme change Charges :sob:) u good with that? Just @ STINK if he finally wants in or still feels too cool for raves.