Kasimir

Haven't felt he's driving trains much, + the hypocrisy defense had a touch of paggro that I tend to associate with a line that E!Mat has a bigger tendency to whip out more. Wouldn't be against applying pressure today, believe it's too early to talk about final trains, but dislike instinctively any shooting within the Flatline Seven. Either they resurrect or don't - if there's an Elim in there, that's endgame shooting, not at the start. Frost having recently established comms to pass on Containment Watch results should help with this.

Their wincon is not SD. I admit it's only my judgement call, with regard to how Village-aligned they are, but have asked whether they are willing to be revealed since Khriss's team will know who they are anyway. Ruin has also ended up on a planet with one other player, so if that player is Evil (Hoid, Autonomy), they'll also know who Ruin is. My assessment at least is that they are not lying about being willing to work with the Village. The Elims can do that, but this would tell us they'd have to be on Sel, which is where monitoring world traffic can indeed be useful. I do think one way or another, it's worth opening a conversation with Ruin on which worlds we'd like to see gone. Scadrial is a non-negotiable for Ruin for obvious reasons, but I think we would, in general, like some capacity to shape which worlds are blown up - off the top of my head, losing Braize and Sel and Scadrial is a non-starter for us, which means we're likely to name Sel untouchable. If Sel is blown up, we lose a decent amount of capacity to switch Charges, and this might really matter in a landscape without Scadrial due to Autonomy's SD. Us losing Scadrial is likely to be good for Autonomy in general due to the double burn issue. I'm of the view Roshar is also a non-starter, which means we'd ideally be asking for one world within <Taldain, Threnody, Nalthis.> I think Autonomy (ironically) wouldn't mind Taldain being blown up, as that makes Autonomy's Charges more valuable and then gives players some reason to potentially keep those around or bargain with Dormamu for them. But this is me guessing in the absence of an Avatar reply. I hesitate about Threnody/Nalthis - Threnody is definitely possible as the anon vote may not necessarily be very Village, but having lots of double votes floating could potentially help us claw back a lynch if we're outgunned by the Elims (see once again: the problem of having 7 inert players who aren't doing anything.) Simply put, bracketing the trust issue, failure to be clear about what worlds we do not want to see blown up leaves the issue open for Ruin or an Elim team to decide. We can either clearly stake out our interests now, or fail to on grounds of suspicion. If we fail to stake out our interests, then we have only ourselves to blame if worlds we don't want to see gone end up being gone. Edited to add: @DeTess Thoughts on Mat? I think I've made my misgivings clear largely to the Roshar crowd, though might have said a bit in thread as well. Edited to add 2: I'll also note that Elims choosing to convert Odium charges is a risky strategy that enables Autonomy's SD. They're welcome to play with fire if they wish to. This also gives them a clear footprint to track since to guarantee a kill, they'd pretty much have to concentrate Odium shots on a single player. Any tracking should ID them. (Hi Autonomy, does it feel good to be so loved? )

Noting that this is wrong. Elim Team 1 + Elim Team 2 + Autonomous (non-Bavadin) all choose who to win with: In other words, Villagers Intent Converting affects us more than their team Intent Converting affects them. Our players actually become Independents when they Intent Convert. Any other set of players don't. Which is probably why we have Frost and they don't. I'll note that this doesn't prevent us from making alliances with an Independent: it does mean that such arrangements are only as robust as shared perceived interest.

Yes to both. Scadrial must also be destroyed. Continue to believe R on level. Likely can negotiate with R what worlds to sacrifice. Thoughts on Archer? Edited to add: Unsure. Felt the pressure on Drake was very classic V!Fifth but could be wrong - V!Fifth radiates smugness when he thinks he has someone down to rights. Came through in the very heavyhanded "not interested in the kill but in the survival." Could be that Khriss faction felt that way because they thought they had found a V!Shard, but unsure. Based off my profile, he could be Autonomy, but I don't feel his in-thread attitude fits. I actually felt rather uncomfortable with N3 Archer, hence my asking again, and feel that today's TBB push more or less flagrantly runs in the face of exactly what Archer ostensibly agreed with last Night - that peripheral shots waste time. You could make a potayto/potahto argument that TBB isn't really definable as peripheral, but you yourself noted D3 that TBB hasn't said all that much despite thread presence, so it feels just as peripheral, especially when the basis of the vote is the term 'accountability.' It's more reflexive of the formalist reasoning E!Archer likes to use, by seizing on tells that players use in previous games and using them in an entirely different context as though they translate wholesale. I think Archer's in-thread hostility to Autonomy is wholly compatible as well with an Elim carrot-and-stick approach to Autonomy: harden Village attitudes to Autonomy by shifting the discourse window, and then approach Autonomy tacitly from the perspective of "well, look, the Village wants to eradicate you/milk every bit of advantage they can from you and you can win with us, so why not win with us?" (This bit isn't a direct response, more of a comment to the concerns raised by @DeTess and @|TJ| My approach to Dormamu - sorry I mean Autonomy - so far has been...well, the Roshar doc knows. I'd request them not to say too much, as in the event Roshar is uncompromised (doubtful, but who knows?) this should get the Elims in a bit of a tizzy But as a general rule it's not too much different from my approach to Ruin. I do regret we don't share the same alignment and in Autonomy's case, can't win together, but I believe the numbers demonstrate we have short-term shared interests. (Longer in the term of Ruin.) I don't think anyone on Roshar, Autonomy included, is of the opinion we are anything other than gadara. The view is merely that treating Independents (Ruin) or Autonomy with reflexive hostility/wariness, especially if they've shown some preliminary willingness to negotiate, is fundamentally damaging to any form of decent cooperation. Or, I suppose, if you try to winmax another player, expect them to winmax you. If you approach them in good faith, hopefully you'll see that returned to some extent. What I suppose I'm saying is that I believe Ruin can be negotiated with, and I don't really think the formality of having changed wincon makes that much of a difference. We can't do much against Elim blackmail/extortion of Ruin, but control of that issue left my hands anyway after Ruin was spotted on Braize, and I generally would argue (hi Ruin!) that I've at least argued/maneuevred for some protection of Ruin's own interests in balance, so that's something we have to offer that the Elims might not necessarily give. Bracketing all that talk about negotiating with Autonomy, I still maintain that by way of numbers, Autonomy is not the major worry at this point. It is true this might be a more cursed issue in long term, but if the Village doesn't improve our short-term position, I don't see a point in talking about the long term. FWIW, my read on TBB improved somewhat upon learning that TBB roleblocked VOCALS on D2. I knew VOCALS was roleblocked, as VOCALS hadn't shown on up Scadrial. (I had thought this was done by Turtle.) I do feel this is similar to DeTess claiming the Odium Charge shot - it feels like an unnecessary antagonisation of Autonomy. Elims don't have to work with Autonomy - as you point out, I grant this. But choosing to spend Charges early on doing so does feel like an unnecessary move for an Elim where resources probably matter just that tad more than against the Village. Tbf, TBB absolutely could have been converted post D2. But this is my current thought anyway. Need to catch up properly. I have a final set of thoughts: Suppose we keep working with Ruin. Braize is now destroyed. Odium hasn't Intent Converted at this point. This does seem to entail that control of the kills isn't in Elim hands, which means vote superiority/the thread is going to be where a lot of the scrapping occurs. Can someone ID if there's some sort of mistake with this line of thought?

Shards cannot be converted that way Only window on N0 for Ruin Unlikely

You'll have to get Ambition and ask the shooter, as he's currently very dead. Ruin saw Fifth on Braize that Night, which is why I knew there was a shooter. Ruin told me they'd planned to destroy Braize to finish Intent Converting. Since Ruin seemed Village and I felt they were statistically more likely to be Village, I partly emphasised the rave to draw attention to worlds other than where Ruin was. I'll admit there was some consternation on Roshar and suggestion to contact Frost and ask Frost to conversion block Ruin. But that's ethically questionable and also risks antagonising Ruin, especially since Ruin had indicated they were willing to play with the Village as far as their new wincon allowed and they seemed on the level to me. To be clear, Ruin has definitely Intent Converted. I'll address the rest later. Commuting

Feeling a bit more validated in V!Szeth btw - indicative that at least one Elim didn't care. Will catch up on everything else later. Been one hell of a day. Edited to add: I'll note that this means it's at least clear Ruin's identity is known by Khriss's faction. @DeTess: Archer thoughts at this point? Edited to add 2: I should probably point out as I did to the Roshar doc that Ruin planned to destroy Braize to prevent more kill monopolisation and communicated to me that they didn't intend to play anti-Village where possible. I've tried not to state this publicly because I believe this opens them to blackmail and extortion attempts from both Elim factions. Edited to add 3: To explain the first edit - I knew there was a Braize Shooter because Ruin was on Braize that day and saw a shooter. This also entails that Ruin's identity is now known to one Elim team because the shooter saw Ruin and Ruin confirmed that the shooter IDed them as Ruin. Edited to add 4: @Turtle - What did you do on D2?

I can't promise there's zero game discussion but there's music and memes as well, tbh. Though I'll also admit this is the first time people showed up. Before that, I was alone with the Avatars. Is the problem the pageless format? Don't think it's that long just yet.

A+ memes and music though.

If the inactives I highlighted are mostly Village, then this means that the actives are highly Elim-tainted. That's gonna end up worse for us. Ngl I genuinely believe we are close to zugzwang. I am refusing to make further activity comments because this has been my entire character for this whole game and I am dead sick of trying to scold people into giving a damn about their goddamned team.

I feel like he was gonna say he's standing where he stood earlier: his one (1) thing in this game is killing Autonomy, that's it. I don't really disagree with this take (Autonomy delenda est), I just kind of don't think we're in a position to be making too many calls anymore if we are both right about the numbers.

My heart wants it to be V/V/V. But IDK anymore :/ I always want Porch Bro to be Village even when he isn't and you can't form a good read on the basis of wanting.

People vote you for low activity PoE, or occasionally, having weird votes, or refusing to vote early/contribute until you're sure. In my view, that's more or less getting voted for having a non-standard playstyle, which I'd argue is driving a lot of the Szeth reactions right now. Here's my question: suppose Szeth really flips Village. If you believe Elims mostly tend to vote for you, who would you go for? Appreciated, but also, please take care in the heat! Edited to add: It isn't, because I think Szeth is Village. And my starting point is that I never want to sit down and watch a Villager get lynched just so we can start lynching possibly Evil people, so that's not really compatible. I'm probably stating it more strongly than I feel but at core if I give myself a three box exercise, I'm still willing to put Szeth in the Village box at this point, which means that I don't accept a Szeth lynch as being any part of "what I want."

If the Mat connection is pretty blatant, why not go to Mat first? I do think Szeth is actually more readable than Xino - you're @ing Szeth for the sort of player bracket mistakes/weirdness he tends to make and we just went through this in QF66. It's why I don't want to repeat it again. With Xino for me at least, it's just plain 'I need a viable CW that's not a guy I genuinely V read so welp, Xino it is.' I will be honest though that I mention this because I have been thinking E!Mat since - last cycle, or the Night following the Alpha exe, maybe. IDK. I go back and forth, but his hypocrisy response to you had a touch of tonal passive-aggressiveness I associate with his E!self and I feel his E!self tends to resort to that argument more. But IDK at this point. Like...Araris...yes and no. The disconnect feels very LG94 to me. And Araris hasn't been front and centre. It's still a peripheral lynch. I'm trying very hard not to, because I'm still at the 'he comes out as every flavour of read' place. I'm feeling hard-committed to the sense the vote has to be in the set I highlighted and I kind of don't want to because that's more effort than I want to put in, but I guess life do me that way. Long story short: I chucked him in nulls, can see him pretty much every alignment flavour including Autonomy and keep in mind I've spent at least two cycles talking to Autonomy at this point. Not saying this is a voice/playerID match as I'm not trying too hard to deanonymise Autonomy for reasons of - well honestly mostly it feels unfair to exploit it - but yeah. Are you suggested Intent Converted Drake, or Evil Drake? Could see that being the case, yeah. That's sort of one of the mentioned reads I disagree with as I feel he's textbook H/K/B profile. Controversial suggestion: has anyone thought of making nice with Autonomy but keeping the Avatar count low? Something like enemy of my enemy is my temporary friend? I've been running the numbers again: Main thing I dislike is: 18 = 17 (9+8) + 1 On the strictest (least Village friendly) map, this is a 9/4/4/1 game at the moment. Fortunately, we're still some people away from the outnumber wincon...right? Nope. Here's the people who didn't vote D1: Y'all welcome to @ me if I missed someone. Here's the people who didn't vote D2: Here's the people who didn't vote D3: This is what I'm proposing, contra Fifth's kneejerk about Fadran and the mention of faction games, and yeah contra my earlier position but I did believe we had more voting power than we apparently do right now: Functionally, these people are not going to vote. They have not voted for three cycles, they are functionally inert. Numerically it's great to have the number padding if they're predominantly Village, but if they're predominantly Village, we're screwed, because they're part of the 9 and that's our de facto voting power right there - locked in people who aren't about to vote, or do things, or change the gamestate in generally positive ways for the Village. Autonomy hasn't been handing out charges. I know this because I received zero, unless someone else wants to claim having received charges. (Also admittedly because Autonomy and I sort of settled this between us really early on on N1 when I threatened to kick them offworld if they did anything funny like give me Charges.) Autonomy is currently down to two Avatars and as long as the Avatar population is under control (7 v. game population), we're not really in danger of dying to Autonomy just yet. I'd rather spend my energy whittling down Khriss or Hoid's teams due to the fact they might or might not still have conversions unspent and they're hella more coordinated than a low Avatar count Autonomy is, and the Avatars can't do the vote stuff without burning Autonomy's Shardic. If I'm not wrong, this gives Autonomy a voteswing limit of two. ( @Ashbringer / @Amanuensis ) I do also feel it's in Autonomy's interest to help us control the H/K population or at least not get in our way, because again, the numbers in my first point. Orange highlights are consistent non-voters. Not controlling the H/K population risks giving them a crucial advantage either way. I feel alright with V!JNV but the rest are pretty much a bloc of nothingness. I don't really know how practicable it is to ask Ruin or Odium to shoot in there. ...Part of this I suppose boils down to the fact I think I know what game Autonomy is playing at. I could be wrong, of course. Wouldn't be the first time. And I've been ninjaed by DeTess and TBB so I'm just gonna stop here and check in a bit I guess.

Sorry bro, I kind of think Szeth is LHF and that's where your vote went. Edited to add: @|TJ| - Your Fifth read?

No worries sorry for bad phrasing, just sleep-deprived so my coherence/Diplomacy skill level is low rn. Edited to add: Edited to add 2: @Amanuensis / @Ashbringer - Who's currently on the chopping block for inactivity? Edited to add 3: Assuming maximum conversion - 18 -> 17 (9/8) + 1 That's kayana - we shouldn't be having near this amount of problems if there are that many Elims. This is a literal 50-50 situation by now. I do have a theory about this but it involves things I really Do Not Want To Do, RIP Frost. Minimally, Szeth voting here is NAI: this is a self-pres vote. Indicative of lack of support, so maybe he’s Autonomy? Still haven't really felt Szeth isn't Village though. I can't say I'm dead certain but it just doesn't feel right to me given his actions and behaviour and I kind of want to stick to that. Wiz here isn’t even trying tbh and that makes me feel a bit better about the V read. E!Wiz likes a bit of theatre. I don’t really like TBB’s Szeth vote. Agreed that sometimes gut do be that way but I think he’s sort of making the same badvote mistake that some players do to him and others—Szeth is in the sort of playbracket I’d expect him to get flak for odd reasoning here and there. As much as Fifth’s overconfidence is annoying, I think there’s pretty solid reason to V read him for now. Let’s go with the Odium shot for V!DeTess: don’t super feel an Elim would take a potshot and risk angering Autonomy if Autonomy hasn’t been acting against them. (Worth noting I don't know how I feel about DeTess's passiveness here but LG94 shows DeTess isn't really a Village rally player. IDK. Will take a look after a nap I guess.) TJ’s last minute hopping feels like a good look: genuine indecision/responsiveness. E!TJ probably has no real iron in this fire. Potentially complicated by the fact that E!TJ might be trying to lynch another Elim from a different faction for V!cred, but…IDK. We’ll see. IDK I feel as okay with V!TJ now but let’s take it a bit at a time. In terms of numbers, can’t be every single Elim voting, I think. I want Araris to be V on the basis of apathy-getting back pattern cf. LG94. I don't know if I feel this is true anymore. Wiz is giving me strong Cham vibes but that's partly on the basis of apathy and comparison with LG93 and I kind of don't feel he'd be this dead if Evil but that's also contingent on next cycle. Ah whatever Idgaf anymore let's just say this: I think we need to stop going LHF/peripheral: we've been fighting over that for the past three cycles. Maybe I'm wrong and it really is a hard-commit issue but I think it's pretty clear the place we've been trying to avoid shooting, the <Fifth, DeTess, Elan, me, TJ, Mat, Araris, Archer> bracket plus minus a couple of others is pretty contaminated. I'm scrolling back up from my list of non-voters. Some like Fae and Walin are so inactive I genuinely struggle to believe an Elim team would convert them. You at least want a convert who will send in actions and vote when needed to, surely. I guess there's an argument to be made to shoot in the non-voter bracket because if these guys are Village, we've lost. Like sorry but this is screwed. Take Xino's activity levels, apply that to endgame, and the effective Village faction size decreases. Turtle's performative 'y'all no vote' cuts little ice with me when they ain't voting either. Like sure y'all can try to murder Szeth tomorrow or me. I don't really think that's the right move (at least in Szeth's case, for obvious reasons) but whatever it takes to get you out of the goddamned LHF rut and actually looking in the one pocket we're not voting. And if any of our non-voters'd like to remember they signed up for a game and actually help the Village, it'd be swell. Formally, let’s look at who didn’t vote: It…beggars belief that all of these are Village. I guess I can re-introduce Turtle: my v!Turtle assumption was based on the thought that Turtle took a specific action on D2 which I kind of don’t know if it’s true. This is one dismal/disgusting map for non-voters, as that puts us at at least 7 players non-voting and if majority of these are Village, I'm just done here. Note to self: maybe you're letting Walin off too easily, check Ellie and LG83.

That was my thought:

ffs Alright, going to re-read Szeth if I have the time. Which is after this is turned in. But intuitively feel this was a V/V lead train, which has implications for Elim detachment/disengagement. Edited to add: Elan staying on Xino is interesting if I stick with V!Szeth for now. But I keep forgetting Elims only know who isn't on their team so from her POV, Xino could still be on a different team ig. Not sure. Edited to add 2: Boy is Roshar crowded all of a sudden o_O Edited to add 3: Autonomy's avatars are world-restricted, I believe, though with so much of this game's population besieging Silverlight, they can probably roleblock or dump Charges on y'all as well.

Presuming you're back to E!Szeth? Edited to add: @|TJ| - Araris votes pre-date your Szeth votes. The only Araris vote to have come in after the Szeth triple vote was from Mat, who already stated Szeth was his top V!read.

It doesn't, unfortunately. I know several Ruin contacts, but really this functionally means it needs to go through me, and I'd really rather not know who Frost is, and expect Frost also probably doesn't trust me. (Which is wise, since I theoretically still can be converted even though the sulking/loss of game motivation would be real probably.) I've spent some time trying to work out how that goes with recognition codes and such because Frost's PoE could be pretty valuable, but no dice. And say even if I agreed to put Frost in touch (which I haven't consented to), I'd be potentially dealing with Frost impersonators and IDK if I need to deal with that amount of bullcrapping/lying in my life. It's just annoying to me I guess as I feel the problem can be cracked but also sort of can't.

Tbh I do wonder if they want that risk. (They might, but we should make them hurt for it.) Frost's Containment Watch is pretty strong, which is why I low key want us to figure out a way to get Frost in contact with Ruin - as the Shard most likely to be Village and conversion-immune. There's a ? if Ruin wants to Intent Convert, but feels like the best bet here.

j/k

...Maybe? IDK bro you haven't been Evil in ages, and given Gorilla slip I sort of don't believe it's out of your range. But I also kind of think you'd panic in doc. But I'm also too dead tired to work this out rn so I'm gonna trust my less sleep-deprived read rather than panic and flop around. Edited to add: Well aware of the irony here, but you're also talking to the guy who did a last minute panic CW onto TBB in QF63 to save V!Archer as a Villager so I do these things.

Ngl yeah. Bah, don't have time to re-read him though. I'm gonna just trust past me. ありがとうございます GM-さま Edited to add: You voting doesn't tie it up though, given you're on Xino. Seems a weird reason.

@Amanuensis @Ashbringer @Anyone i can haz vc?