Kasimir

Ngl part of me wants to withdraw because this looks like a quasi-FFA and I've never played one before - don't have the faintest idea what to do with it. Part of me thinks that's exactly the sort of conditions to have a nice, chill game since you don't know what you should be doing other than stabbing people anyway Edited to add: This is more tragic than funny. Until I re-read the rules, I was under the impression SSs and AAs got killed when they hit each other >> I am getting old and sloppy in my dotage >>

Possible to offer a rough definition of what you mean by 'classics'? Because in my head, when you say 'classics', I think of Virgil's Georgics and I'm worried that's not exactly what you mean here.

I'm good to run if you prefer not to - my Star Wars MR and Nalthis MR are both more or less ready, depending on player preference.

I thought of asking you. I don't know if passing it would have been gamechanging or helpful, and I can explain why. A central part of the debates was whether E!Turtle lies about the fenweed. Item passing is blocked by fenweed sap. Since we now know E!Turtle did in fact roleblock you, the silver dust wouldn't have been passed. This more or less guarantees that: A. You were roleblocked B. Turtle did in fact roleblock you. Since we were speculating a two Elim team, you and Turtle can't both be lying. Inability to pass the dust confirms the roleblock. I think that means the debate would have come back to you. But in a world where you subsequently flip V with Silver Dust, our conclusion is that Turtle did in fact roleblock you. Then the reasoning about the Elims using the Fenweed Sap comes into force, Turtle gets more or less softcleared off the back of it, and Wiz gets MLed off the bat. But as mentioned, it didn't feel right and I agonised in a few DMs and my GM PM about it. I like mechclears but it felt like a bridge too far, especially asking you to potentially give up an item that could save your life. Felt like a shakedown, even if it was Village and so I didn't do it. Ni ceti, vod But I died trying so that counts for something I guess. I asked Mat to send you this quokka in response to the one you sent me, btw. This was me after you flipped and I was committed to vengeance: P.S. @Shining Silhouette You have no idea how hard the anti-tunnel was >> I was struggling so hard not to tunnel on you ;__;

Double-posting with pure Village dgaf here: With the QF finished, here is the MR list. This is being posted a bit earlier so you can make plans e.g. if you plan to play in Ash's upcoming LG, or if you need to get a ruleset approved rather than at the last minute >> MR List: @The Unknown Novel @Szeth_Pancakes (?) @Fifth Scholar (X) @Matrim's Dice (X) @Tani (?) @Karnatheon (?) @Ashbringer (X) Kasimir (I know this guy, he's me!) @Steeldancer @JNV @shadow1 @xinoehp512 I normally wouldn't tag so many players, but Szeth hasn't been heard from in a while, Fifth told me yesterday he was busy, Mat would be running a QF-BT-MR back-to-back, Tani passed up the BT list, Karn also hasn't been heard from in a while, and Ash mentioned he has no aspirations to run a LG and MR near-simultaneously. TUN has first shot, if not, if the others don't get back in a week, I'm probably prepared to run the MR.

Death write-up submitted back when I had committed to this 140 character thing (SIGH):

No thank you, I like the original awesome one even though my playstyle meant it wasn't going to work

You're welcome! I wish I was a bit more forceful but I wasn't as sure of V!you as I was of V!Archer I did PM Wiz after the game going "bro why didn't you PM me" because I expected V!Wiz to and would've heard him out, but RL before gaming, always. Good work to the Elim team! And clutch save to @xinoehp512! Usually I'd say I'm better at lylos where re-evaluation is necessary (MR53, where the Village just immediately hit Az, LG82) and Archer's better at lylos where you just need to commit and go (probably this one as well as LG79.) @Ashbringer This is why we don't just stab Archer my bro Edit: Village best alignment @Turtle - Disappointed you took so long to kill me, now I think Mat will never use my awesome death write-up Edited to add 2: @The Unknown Novel - I said it in thread, but to clear it up, your CW was me trying to find a working CW, and I wasn't thinking too hard. My first hope was that Bookwyrm would go with me onto Turtle. When Bookwyrm declined, and I noticed that basically no one online could be induced to Turtle (they were either Turtle or already on Turtle), I looked through all existing one-vote trains to summon the CW for Archer. The fact I didn't V!read you did play a role but my choice was just determined by the fact JNV had already voted on you, I figured maybe Turtle doesn't mind self-pres, and there's like a whole bunch of people online I could @ who had expressed negative reads on you so maybe I could get you voted, but in all honesty I panicked because I had a very powerful Village read of Archer so swung into save Archer mode. @Matrim's Dice - Out of curiosity, what was the cursed distro with E!me? As the man who will one day GM the GM, I pre-emptively decree you are wrong

The Premise We are at lylo. If we miss this shot, our last hope is if V!Xino successfully stops the Elim kill. I have faith in V!Xino, but I prefer us not to even get to that precipice. So we play this as if this is lylo. I PMed Xino sometime after the cycle began, when I'd finished marinating in my oath of vengeance to JNV. First, let's establish some basic facts. There is only a single Elim left. If there were two Elims, we would have lost the game already. This means that we can either identify the most suspicious among us, or we can try to clear the players we can, and then the last player must be the Elim. Second, as I mentioned in a PM in this game, there's something Araris told me in a PM in AG8 that I found to be pretty sensible. Which is that sometimes, Elims slip past us by doing something unexpected. This means that we are at the point where we need to figure out what that 'something unexpected' is, by revising our key assumptions. A. The Set-Up B. Stepping Back: What's Our PoE? C. Experiment Results D. TJ's Principle In summation: Wiz. Annex: That's about it from me. Longpost of longposts, go. Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders. Gott helfe mir. If I'm wrong, then I hope Xino makes the Lurch successfully so we get one last shot at it next cycle Sorry, dead doc. I did my best.

Araris told me about the legend of MR40, yeah. Something like you wiped his team that game? Still, I misquote Archer: "No one has that kind of accuracy when the frog of war is about." Xino. Edited to add:

@xinoehp512 Maybe you shouldn't have killed Ash then! >>

I've slept on it. Not sure about Turtle. I feel like there's a key assumption missing here. And you gained very much trust from that gambit, didn't you, Xino? Honestly I'm both impressed and disturbed by your accuracy. Almost... Unnatural. Edited to add: @Turtle, you just gonna eat the filter here? Turtle Making my Turtle unvote more obvious.

I'll do it but can you ping me when you want it unmarked? Unlikely to remember to unbusy it, sorry!

Ash NK is interesting. I'd've expected another Xino hit, but maybe they were tired of bouncing off Xino. Killing within the <me, Xino, Ash> set is reasonable: in any E!Turtle, E!Wiz, E!Xino world, killing out of the set helps flip one of <Wiz, Turtle.> The best information-denying play is to go kill in-set. Agree with Ash's reasoning on WGG/WBG unlikely. This points to within <Wiz, Turtle> set. Intuitively, two silver dust Elims is odd. Of course, Wiz could be lying. There's a world in which Wiz [Edit: Meant Bookwyrm] doesn't really have the time, but I still don't buy the choreography. And also, something I'd wondered: Probably slight mirror structure here. Still believe that Bookwyrm plays a straight distancing game and puts teammate in E reads. Believe I'm not who Wiz wants to kill, and Xino is out of my set. So that being said, I'm comfortable with where my vote is at the moment. Edited to add: Tbh, I can hear Archer saying something right now

No, because I PMed JNV and made a solemn promise to avenge them if they were Village and they agreed. Motir ca'tra nau tracinya. Gra'tua cuun hett su dralshy'a. Edited to add: I'm sure you know the answer to that!

Turtle This is why I say it's never too late to re-eval >:( ffs.

Eh, just experiencing doubt I suppose. Past Kas told me to stop rethinking so now I'm just chilling and memeing. And writing in deep purple ink. Edit: Oh hi, @Matrim's Dice, @Ashbringer, @Shining Silhouette, @Turtle. Suddenly such a popular thread

How does vote tracking for this one feel, Mat? Compared to C1?

Was thinking this is a no for me because I have to go for a workshop on the 15th, then I remembered the fell sorcery that is timezones >> Oh. Uh-oh >> Ah, soddit. Signing up as Keredin, a small-time hotshot duelist who once dated Adolin Kholin and maybe broke up with the Ghostbloods. Please don't curse me >>

LG90 memes:

They're not wrong they said no to going for me early in LG84, your game. But I also kinda feel the kill makes more sense as a Bookwyrm kill because I legit don't know how you don't anticipate that I'd be Lurched, and that means this requires a teammate who was low activity enough Bookwyrm got to call the shot. But I'll pull what I found of JNV's kill meta from LG84. Keep in mind this is the first time we've seen E!JNV, IIRC. So this is the first time we see their kill meta, and it could have shifted. I'll do a LG89 dive in a bit if I would, but you were teammates so you should remember this. 1. Doesn't like killing me - consistent with LG89, and what they said earlier. 2. C1 JNV doesn't like suspicion kills. 3. Purple is shadow, FYI. JNV wants what I'd call a misdirection kill - wanted to kill an Archer voter or a Teod (faction) player to make it seem as though the Archer train was pure (it wasn't) or that the faction doc was pure (it wasn't.) 4. Is actually fine with killing me if I suspect and push their teammate, Shadow. 5. See above: Also down with killing a player who seemed somewhat V. 6. Expanded to anybody who was sussed by anyone - possible overlap as Xino was not widely sussed and generally kept under the radar C1? 7. Doesn't like low activity kills. 8. Likes to stay off Village leads as long as they're wrong and can't re-evaluate. I was V!reading JNV sort of for part of C2 and pushing Silho, though I reversed course halfway through the cycle. 9. Is fine with kill mindgames. 10. Fine with low info kills. I could've sworn they disliked those earlier... 11. There's a very long segment I'm just not quoting where JNV strategises and agonises about which of Orlok or me to kill, worrying that we will be onto them. They settle for leaving me alive, figuring I will ML Baker for them. There's another segment where they regret leaving me alive afterwards. 12. This is from LG86, which I co-GMed. Coloured for your eyes. Doesn't want to kill those who suspect them. Doesn't want to kill sources of controversy, i.e. players who can be MLed. 13. Wants to let Village do their own MLs, suggests role kills. Anyone who hasn't been suspicious or suspected them. 14. Is fine with killing a loud player who looks good due to thread events, doesn't want to go into the quiets because of teammate present. 15. They believe louder hits are better than quiets in this game at the beginning. 16. Doesn't like to kill a suspected protected player, but doesn't see it as the end of the world. 17. Toys with a misdirection kill but ultimately decides to hit a confirmed player. 18. Here, advocates for the opposite: it's ok to hit Conq despite Conq suspecting Stick - this can be played off as Elim indifference. And that's about it. I don't feel very enlightened from this, honestly Ash is my NKA guy. What I really take away: 1. I don't see the N2 kill on me making sense coming from you, Ash, Wiz. Wiz has been too on-the-ball with the rules to make this mistake, and after AG8, I can't see why Ash would go for me this way when Xino was likely to Lurch me. Xino only makes sense on a three man team, and I think we'd have lost last cycle if so, since you withheld your vote. In addition, protecting me doesn't make sense as a WGG play or WBG play of any flavour. I don't actually see it making sense coming from JNV either, which makes me think that JNV couldn't submit the kill and what we're seeing from N2 was driven by Bookwyrm's meta instead. I rule you out because we had to explain the tent rules to you, meaning I find it hard to see that you'd miss that Xino couldn't self-protect a second time. 2. JNV is correct that they are opposed to killing me early. They are fine with doing so once I get into gear in a game. In other words, I don't think I can rule out a C2 kill on me from a JNV team if I'm busy pushing JNV and have Bookwyrm as a null. But the C2 kill just doesn't make sense. In what world is it not highly likely that Xino would Lurch between me and Ash, seeing as that Xino can't self-Lurch anyway? 3. Is fine with low info kills, toys with the idea of misdirection kills. I don't see anything that really says that Xino and myself can't be JNV kills, but I think either way you slice it, the C2 kill was likely a Bookwyrm kill, and the only team I can envision who didn't say hol' up would be JNV, because JNV was too busy to tell Book that this is not a good idea.

I'm not saying this as a matter of suspecting you. I'm still very sold on E!JNV. This is to contextualise everything that has happened so far in the thread as an invitation to check my reasoning. What I said C2 with Silho stands: I genuinely dislike MLing Villagers when at all possible. I dislike it when LG89 Illweis happen (also AG8 Illweis I guess), but I do have a tendency to deathtunnel when it's unchecked and Illwei and I bring out the worst in each other these days when we interact, unfortunately. I've been re-reading your E and V game but I don't have a strong sense other than my current V!Turtle and E!JNV read which I still hold on to. Ultimately I suppose, JNV is enough of a bro that I don't want to lynch them without giving them an out to talk me into it, and I don't know that I should be dead committed to an E!JNV lynch despite beating the JNV Delenda Est wardrums since C3. At this point, I'm not terribly convinced and I still believe JNV is a more likely partner for Bookwyrm. And that is a very cute cat. I now have 4k cat pictures and 4k dog pictures on my Google Drive

...I'm willing to be talked into going for Turtle, just saying :eyes: Edited to add: Oof, unfortunate timing.

I go to Turtle? This shouldn't even be a question - the strong Village read is an indicator of overall read strength, not relative/associated credence. It's no accident I went from Ash > Xino > Wiz > Turtle > you when listing my conclusions from my re-read. I think it's intellectually dishonest for me to put Turtle as a Light Village read or a Null+ at this point because Turtle looks good enough on my re-read I'm happy putting them in the Moderate Village tier. But whenever you re-evaluate, there are always two options: you can throw everything out the window and start again, or you can move on and then revise the read of least strength in your set. Barring reason to think I'm so drastically wrong about the gamestate that I'd need to revise on Ash or Xino, I think it's fairly reasonable to bracket those top reads and just revise Turtle as the lowest of my current read strengths. If you want me to translate it into credence language, I'm a 0.85 on Ash, 0.8 on Xino, 0.75 on Wiz, 0.7 on Turtle, so the logical revision step is Turtle if you flip Village. It's just that it's kind of ridiculous for me to turn a 0.7 credence into a Light Village belief at this point - that's still fairly strong. Why are we getting a violation next time? If you are Village, you flip and there is no Violation, meaning we only have to worry about the NK. Wiz has also claimed silver dust. Do you think he is lying? If he is lying, why are you voting Turtle? Isn't this the point of this game though? This is a semi-regular roleslite game. A lot of things can't be proven based off actions, and given Wiz has claimed silver dust, I'm approaching you and him and Turtle the exact same way I'd approach players in a normal, regular-only game: by reading posts and votes. A significant amount of my Ash Village read is based off what he's said and voted. But there's also the bit I don't really understand, which is that the line between saying and doing is a lot more thin than your take on Turtle seems to warrant. Turtle panicking at C1 EoD can be regarded as something that was 'said', but it was a constant stream of confused questions that felt genuine, in a cycle where: if we propose a two-Elim team, i.e. a team that cannot afford to lose a member C1, and that would've left Book as solo Elim for the rest of the game! - then Book being absent doesn't make sense. In that same world, given end cycle volatility with Silho and Archer and myself hopping on and off Turtle, does E!Turtle stay put and refuse to jump on TUN, even though self-pres is NAI and they wouldn't have lost serious Village credit for this? Does E!Turtle hold their nerve rather than panicking and going for the guaranteed save? Well, sure. I suppose there's residual uncertainty attached - Turtle could be an Elim with nerves of steel, still trying to go for the Archer ML. But the two player team context, the fact Book felt secure enough not to be there, the fact this would have left Book alone to solo, something that should give Book's partner some pause, and the fact that Turtle didn't seem to care that much about self-pres despite volatility - I think the better explanation of this behaviour is V!Turtle. If you want to dismiss everything Turtle asked at C1 EoD as being what was said, then what did Turtle do? Simple: they held their vote on Archer. They didn't jump onto TUN despite the whole thread doing so, and despite the fact they could be plausibly endangered because votes were moving so fast. Maybe that's not decisively Village looking, but that still deserves moderate Village credit, in my eyes. The other place where I think we're about what Turtle said is C2, and that's Turtle claiming the roleblock a minute before rollover. It was a very natural and late claim, and I don't buy than an Elim just claims roleblock without thinking about the consequences, which is that they will be expected to use the roleblock to help the Village subsequently, reducing their operational freedom. Now, you could say that this is Turtle saying this to gain trust, and the ability to make the kill without being watched, since they can always just make the kill and claim to have roleblocked a player. But there's an associated trade-off, right? If Turtle claims to have roleblocked a player and actually puts in the kill, they end up softclearing the player. You could argue the fact this was a single roleblock charge means E!Turtle let themselves off the hook, but then again, what is the purpose of the claim then, since if they failed to block the kill, they wouldn't have gained Village credit anyway? You could also argue Turtle meant to suggest RBing Bookwyrm in order to make their teammate look better, but I was the one pushing for a potential Bookwyrm roleblock and a you train. Turtle's natural target was you, not Bookwyrm. That doesn't really fit either. I will also agree that it looks bad for Turtle that they didn't think to roleblock anyone C2 despite making that claim. And with Turtle missing out the tent rules, it's entirely plausible Turtle didn't notice that players can't pass items if they're being roleblocked, and that this was the weakness in their plan. This is at least consistent with Turtle claiming to have roleblocked you last cycle. This could plausibly be because they withheld the kill Final question: in your view, does E!Turtle simply refuse to vote on C3 for trust, knowing that they have a 40% chance of dying? You yourself argued this was unlikely Elim behaviour and that you didn't expect Archer to go through with it. Turtle did that. Does that make them more V or E in your eyes? I think a slice of players would consider that shading into gamethrowing territory if Turtle was Evil, because Turtle wasn't going to attract suspicion from voting on a holdout train since that was the plan all along. In summation: it's not that I think Turtle can't be Evil. I could definitely see places where this might be true. But in summation and overall, you still come out as being far more Evil on analysis. I respect that your post can't really engage with the premise that you are Evil because that's a non-starter for you, but I do think that even having made this post all about Turtle, I can still point out that: If I am wrong, then I will go to Turtle, depending as well on new, incoming information. ...If I'm still alive >> Edited to add: A final point - perhaps it says a lot about my Elim style, which, fair enough. But I wouldn't leave a teammate who was a new player largely on his own to fend for himself C2 and C3 when he was attracting a lot of suspicion. I'd be talking him through what to do. I'll grant this reasoning failed with Archivist in LG90, who made that suspicious Turtle vote. But I also think that the circumstances were different: it's a five man Evil team in that game, and a two man (we're running with this assumption) team here, meaning the Elims can't afford to throw players away like that. Book was also attracting a lot of suspicion. His behaviour points to an inactive or low activity teammate, and given Turtle's thread presence, I still think that Book would have received more support from Turtle. The more likely teammate is you. Edited to add 2: np, take care!