Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Plum Rhinoceros]

3 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I'll say tomorrow, so long as I don't get killed tonight.

I mean, that's outside my sphere of control  Would make for a more interesting Day turn, that's for sure.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Opal Lion]

1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

That was never my plan. I never wanted scholarform. Too much work to make posts that big. It's also why I avoided artform.

You could claim you lied about failing to get mediationform. But it hasn't reflected in your votes so clearly you never used it.

But we're still back to square one: Malibu has to be among the D1 Seven or the Fabulous Five, and you now claim you are not denying you failed to get warform or scholarform, implying that even if I were to believe you about lying about mediationform for opsec reasons, it's still back to you versus Hyena versus Tuatara for Malibu, with Weasel backing Hyena up, and clearly Tuatara has called you a liar

Of course, claiming mediationform is clever, since it's critical to the Village right now, so you might just avoid the lynch if you play your cards right.

58 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Potential outcome 1: Elims kill v!me to suggest Malibu has hopped, and now we're chasing our tails.

Potential outcome 2: The real Malibu hops, and I'm still alive. If we assume Malibu!me is still a thing, I'm exed and flip village, and suddenly we're back to square one and likely with a trust read suddenly invalidated without our knowledge.

Potential outcome 3: The real Malibu doesn't hop, I'm still exed and we're back at square one chasing our tails.

But this is scaremongering.

Potential outcome 1: You registered only one vote on Heron. If you're suggesting that you're in mediationform and she's in workform, she'd have to have attuned N3 because D3 is the first cycle workform gems went missing. We also didn't have previous votes on Heron going missing - Dragonfly voted on Heron D3 and Dragonfly is known to be in warform minimally on N2/D3. So the only window for Heron to have attuned workform is N3. But Heron opened a group PM including me on N3. So she can't have attuned on that Night due to actions economy. So you can't be in mediationform.

Even if you used the mediationform gem this night, if Elims kill v!you to suggest Malibu has hopped, as you're suggesting, OoA means we see a dullform rebel dead because the kill comes before gem use. Only Mouse is likely to be in dullform now, if at all, and I'm once again requesting people hit Mouse with a PM. There is no IKYK or tail-chasing: this is blatant scare-mongering because almost all the dullforms are already dead. Basic player psychology: most anyone wants roles.

Potential outcome 2: Scaremongering again. If the real Malibu hops, we have enough information to make some sense of this from the write-up role information. Moreover, everyone is already creating huge PM webs tonight. Malibu would always be a problem for trust read invalidation, that's the whole point. Even if you're not real Malibu, real Malibu isn't going to warn us. You don't make a difference to that. If you are not real Malibu and real Malibu hops, anyone who fails to reply to a PM tomorrow is going to be suspicious anyway just by default. As we near mid-to-endgame, it was always a fact that Malibu would hop eventually. If you're exed and flip Village, the obvious problem-makers are then Tuatara and Hyena. And frankly, if we simply place votes on you and fail to discuss, we're not doing our job as Village.

Potential outcome 3: More scaremongering, see #2.

The logic of the rules still requires someone to be lying, and I've laid out the various scenarios and entailments. We still have as well the results of the past Turn to bring to bear on solving this problem. There is no reason why sudden and significant suspicion on you should immediately cripple the Village.

The fact that you're scaremongering to this extent does make me feel a bit more confident about the read of the situation.

[Amber Vulture]

Perhaps you could open a PM as a gesture of good faith, @Onyx Flamingo. It'd burn your Night Action, preventing you from body hopping. 

 

[Onyx Flamingo]

7 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Perhaps you could open a PM as a gesture of good faith, @Onyx Flamingo. It'd burn your Night Action, preventing you from body hopping. 

 

Then the purpose of me not saying tonight would be nullified. I'm more than willing to explain if someone PMs me, but I need my action to prove what I'm going at. I promise I won't body hop because I'm not Malibu. Also, if I were Malibu, why would I fight this so much? There's literally nothing anyone could do to stop me.

9 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

The fact that you're scaremongering to this extent does make me feel a bit more confident about the read of the situation.

Sorry, I didn't mean to scaremonger. I'm just really worried that we're going to waste a turn tunneling on someone who isn't Malibu because of lies. I admit fully I have lied, and will tell the truth tomorrow or in a PM.

[Opal Lion]

The only thing I can see at this point is a tacit mediationform claim, hence needing to burn actions on it. Except there's no point in insisting on secrecy because if I can see it, the Elims definitely can. I assume it'll be followed tomorrow by the claim he can prove it with a double vote. Except for this to work, Flamingo needs to be the sole voter, and we need to be able to afford this. I'd also be interested to hear if we have counterclaims during the Day. 

Even so, even if you take the walkback of the mediationform claim from Flamingo, it still comes back to the fact that Mouse, Tuatara, or Flamingo have to be Malibu. The gem numbers need to check out. For someone like Heron or Beagle to be Malibu, someone in the Seven has to be lying and covering for them which still brings us back to those three. Lying and covering for Malibu may not make you Malibu but it sure makes you Elim. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

3 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

The only thing I can see at this point is a tacit mediationform claim, hence needing to burn actions on it. Except there's no point in insisting on secrecy because if I can see it, the Elims definitely can. I assume it'll be followed tomorrow by the claim he can prove it with a double vote. Except for this to work, Flamingo needs to be the sole voter, and we need to be able to afford this. I'd also be interested to hear if we have counterclaims during the Day. 

Even so, even if you take the walkback of the mediationform claim from Flamingo, it still comes back to the fact that Mouse, Tuatara, or Flamingo have to be Malibu. The gem numbers need to check out. For someone like Heron or Beagle to be Malibu, someone in the Seven has to be lying and covering for them which still brings us back to those three. Lying and covering for Malibu may not make you Malibu but it sure makes you Elim. 

Well, if you're going to throw it out in the open like that... this is why I despise banking on claiming actions/mechanical confirmations to find elims, because then villagers can't do sneaky squirrel things. secrecy helps us tactically with roles as much as it helps elims.. Yes, I grabbed mediationform D2. I did not use it because village didn't need it right away. With it being a passive vote addition, no one else doing the "accuse" thing to help cover for potential mediationforms, and really easy to spot in vote counts, I decided it would be better to hold until later in the game than use right away and stop contributing to exes. I grabbed workform D3 to keep it away from elims. I didn't care enough about keeping it, so I was fine burning it with being a solo voter on Heron. So yes, my action is being taken tonight by putting on the mediationform gem. We're far enough in with no elims found that we could use the extra voting power.

[Opal Lion]

1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Well, if you're going to throw it out in the open like that... this is why I despise banking on claiming actions/mechanical confirmations to find elims, because then villagers can't do sneaky squirrel things. secrecy helps us tactically with roles as much as it helps elims.. Yes, I grabbed mediationform D2. I did not use it because village didn't need it right away. With it being a passive vote addition, no one else doing the "accuse" thing to help cover for potential mediationforms, and really easy to spot in vote counts, I decided it would be better to hold until later in the game than use right away and stop contributing to exes. I grabbed workform D3 to keep it away from elims. I didn't care enough about keeping it, so I was fine burning it with being a solo voter on Heron. So yes, my action is being taken tonight by putting on the mediationform gem. We're far enough in with no elims found that we could use the extra voting power.

But that's untrue. Steel has already clarified the accused formulation isn't needed. You simply have to give a reason in the same post as your final vote for it to count. 

What do you gain from fighting it this hard? If you're Malibu, and we're 8/5, letting you live through the next day Turn and taking your favoured target of Heron — if Heron is V which to be fair is not confirmed — loses us the game, especially because your kill is then unblockable. Elim teams also like to keep a clean slate if they can. It's not clear to me why Malibu you would not fight, either. 

You can of course argue we then can't afford to get it wrong so we shouldn't lynch you which may or may not be true; our job is to go for the best candidate to maximise our odds of winning after all. The point is to discuss after all and I've never been a fan of the Village just ignoring discussion. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

2 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

But that's untrue. Steel has already clarified the accused formulation isn't needed.

Yes, but plenty of votes have been placed with no reason, even a faked one. But that was the tiniest reason why I didn't take it. The main reason was because it wasn't needed.

Say I had taken it. Suddenly village!mediationform was narrowed down to just a handful of players. Even more so if you consider all of the other form claims that have been thrown out into the open (still have thoughts on this, btw...) Why waste mediationform early and potentially be caught before it can matter.

[Emerald Falcon]

@Opal Lion as you could probably guess from my RP, I am not in Mateform currently. I attuned something else N3.

[Azure Mouse]

5 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Theoretically. Could be: Tuatara or Mouse - lower credence from Mouse, actually I'd just like to hear from @Azure Mouse. Did you or did you not go for artform D1? If you did, can you prove it?

I did not.

WPGUJQHFVHIYYG

(my defense against Malibu)

---

Fumesh felt the little furball in his pocket tremble. He could sympathize; the air was heavy with the promise of a coming storm.

"Fear not, little animal," he whispered to it. "You will be safe here. Surely you have survived storms before?"

The animal seemed somewhat comforted by his tone, but still seemed rather nervous. Fumesh fed it a few crumbs, and it nibbled away at them happily. That seemed to be mainly what it wanted, food. So far it had eaten everything he had given it- though, to be fair, he hadn't given it very much. There was only so much food they had been able to take when they fled.

Some of the others looked at Fumesh a little strangely when they saw him talking to himself. He had ignored their stares. Keeping an animal was a normal thing to do. He was certain of it.

[Charcoal Hyena]

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I'll say tomorrow, so long as I don't get killed tonight. But letting me live will give me a chance to prove it.

And to me Heron is confirmed because why would they choose to exe Hyena when Tuatara has been their stated suspicion all game without votes ever sticking. I don't see their vote as necessarily picking to save Beagle, but avoiding voting on Tuatara.

Do you have anyone that you would trust enough to PM this in case you do die then the information isn't lost to the village? 

[Onyx Flamingo]

13 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Do you have anyone that you would trust enough to PM this in case you do die then the information isn't lost to the village? 

See this:

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Well, if you're going to throw it out in the open like that... this is why I despise banking on claiming actions/mechanical confirmations to find elims, because then villagers can't do sneaky squirrel things. secrecy helps us tactically with roles as much as it helps elims.. Yes, I grabbed mediationform D2. I did not use it because village didn't need it right away. With it being a passive vote addition, no one else doing the "accuse" thing to help cover for potential mediationforms, and really easy to spot in vote counts, I decided it would be better to hold until later in the game than use right away and stop contributing to exes. I grabbed workform D3 to keep it away from elims. I didn't care enough about keeping it, so I was fine burning it with being a solo voter on Heron. So yes, my action is being taken tonight by putting on the mediationform gem. We're far enough in with no elims found that we could use the extra voting power.

I should have just left it earlier so Lion and elims couldn't postulate based on what I was suggesting, but the rigid assumption that I was Mavset because I lied was frustrating. But once he said it, there was no reason to not own up to it.

again, I strongly disagree with having had to claim because I always like playing guarded with roles/actions

[Steeldancer]

Alrighty nerds. You have a little under 2 hours to get your actions in. 

[Opal Lion]

As I mentioned to Rhino, I think the rest is appropriate for a post-game discussion. It's not the first time this subforum has had this ongoing fight on exactly how filthy mech analysis is, and I think we don't need to give @Araris Valerian more bother. Let the old grouch chill.

I'm not going to do more analysis until the Day begins as I have been OTing today.

WUGMGPVTJKUYOAJBJHEYHZPLCQODDSXOPNAQBMNYS

The one they called Swan. And Ross.

Atticus sighed and waited for the highstorm.QTwo friends down, and it seemed that there would be more to come. Those of Odium would never stop, and the Fused would never allow them to be free.

Freedom had to be taken, or they would simply be dragged back in shackles. Or taken by the Fused.

A horrifying thought, that. He hoped they would grant him death instead.

He wondered how many of them would be given the choice to don Regal forms. Supposedly an honour, though Atticus did not know. So many were not the same after they'd assumed those forms. Taken, in another way.

A clean death. That was all Atticus wanted. He only did not know if he would get it.

The highstorm swept in and he tasted freedom on the night air.

[Steeldancer]

Ya'll need to chill with the PMs, it's giving my inbox a heart attack. Anyway, the night is over. Please don't PM during rollover, and please make sure none of you use any older PMs. It's really hard to find those with all the PMs, so... I'm just going to trust you. Because it's less work for me. 
One thing that helps is when you make your PMs, please label when the PM will end. Thank you! Also please let me know in your GM PM when you're making PMs. Helps me keep track of it all. 

[Steeldancer]

LG79/AN10 Day 5: Death by the Seashore
The ocean. Thane had never seen it before. 
They had gone south quite a bit in their route, trying to avoid any human settlements. They didn't need the Knights Radiant coming after them. In so doing, they had made their way to the sea. 
The waves crashed on the sandy beach, and the kids had already taken off to go and play in the water. A femalen went after them to make sure they didn't drown. 
The camp settled down to wait for the night. Part of the reason for this spot was the caves by the beach, where they would be able to wait out the next highstorm. From here, they would soon enter into the Frostlands of Natanatan. There, they would be able to find safety. But that was still a while away, and there will still deceivers among them. Not that they had been able to identify any of them. 
Thane decided he wanted to go feel the sand. The sand was warm and soft. The sound of the ocean was soothing, with the kids shrieking in joy in the background as they splashed each other. The mateforms, were, of course, frolicking with each other on the sand. Not that that was anything new. 
And so Thane took a nap. 
---
He awoke to the sound of screaming. A mateform was standing over her mate. "Another one," thought Thane groggily. 
"Did you see who killed him?" he asked the panicked femalen. 
"No," she sobbed, "we were both asleep on the sand. She sang loudly to the Rhythm of Despair. 
Thane didn't know how to help her. But it was too late for her mate, so he tried hugging her to help. 
She cried in his arms. 
---
She eventually fell asleep, and Thane and some others took care of the body. When he came back, however, he found a strange pattern drawn in the sand. Once again, it was a confusing one. What could it possibly mean?
---
Charcoal Hyena has been killed! They were a Mateform Rebel! 
Village Stash

Spoiler

Nimbleform Gem- 4
Workform Gem- 3
Mateform Gem- 3
Artform Gem- 3

Player List

Spoiler

1. Amber Vulture
2. Amethyst Scorpion
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Mateform Rebel
5. Chartreuse Penguin- Elrin Mateform Rebel
6. Coral Swan Dullform Rebel
7. Cream Tuatara
8. Emerald Falcon
9. Fuchsia Ostrich Dullform Rebel
10. Indigo Weasel
11. Ivory Dragonfly- Kethri
12. Magenta Albatross Dullform Rebel
13. Mauve Crocodile  Dullform Rebel
14. Melon Dingo Dullform Rebel
15. Mint Heron- Chashen
16. Onyx Flamingo
17. Opal Lion- Atticus
18. Oxblood Beagle- Jalnor
19. Plum Rhinoceros- Edith

The turn will end in about 50 hours, at 12:00 EDT 8/2/21. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Steeldancer

[Plum Rhinoceros]

I really don't know what to think about that, alright :P. I suppose Flamingo will advocate for it being a Hyena Malibu, in which case we should check PMs with all the Mateforms. Those are who, Falcon, Scorpion, Weasel? I think I have a PM with two of those, so that's nice

I'll probably still vote Flamingo though. Until proven otherwise.

Edit: Hold up the PM I made last night was literally Falcon/Scorpion/Weasel xD

Edited July 31, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Cream Tuatara]

Just now, Plum Rhinoceros said:

I really don't know what to think about that, alright :P. I suppose Flamingo will advocate for it being a Hyena Malibu, in which case we should check PMs with all the Mateforms. Those are who, Falcon, Scorpion, Weasel? I think I have a PM with two of those, so that's nice

I'll probably still vote Flamingo though. Until proven otherwise.

Famingo does seem like the best candidate. I find it strange that they didn't hop though. They either have to be covering for the Mavset or the Mavset themselves. 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

4 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Famingo does seem like the best candidate. I find it strange that they didn't hop though. They either have to be covering for the Mavset or the Mavset themselves. 

Well, if they're not Malibu I don't see why they can't be village. (Right? I think that's it.) Because I'm pretty sure the only reason they're being voted on is because they're likely Malibu.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros
Misspelled it as Mavset smh

[Cream Tuatara]

2 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Well, if they're not Malibu I don't see why they can't be village. (Right? I think that's it.) Because I'm pretty sure the only reason they're being voted on is because they're likely Malibu.

The only other possiblity is that they're covering for Mavset by lying, therefore making them elim.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

2 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

The only other possiblity is that they're covering for Mavset by lying, therefore making them elim.

Yeah, but I personally don't find that likely. I still think their posts (up until last turn where they started trying to explain themselves) have been very villagey. If they're elim they really did a good job.

[Steeldancer]

Forgot to add the artform thing. Writeup edited. 

[Opal Lion]

Just now, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Yeah, but I personally don't find that likely. I still think their posts (up until last turn where they started trying to explain themselves) have been very villagey. If they're elim they really did a good job.

Yes and no - I actually found both the Heron and Beagle switch a bit weird when it happened. Beagle switch would implicate Tuatara in trying to start an alternate train, Heron switch would implicate Flamingo. I think both are possible as well. But need to look more closely, it was just my thought at that point in the cycle given how hotly contested the two trains were.

Alright, three possibilities:

A: Hyena was a regular kill

I think this is the most likely. It's interesting to me because it narrows down the Malibu field further, but I'll think more about that later when I'm not trying to OT.

B: Hyena was Malibu and took over Weasel

The thing is, since Weasel claimed to be Hyena's mate, if Hyena was Malibu, it'd implicate Weasel as an Elim anyway, so this possibility doesn't make all that much sense.

C: Hyena was Malibu and took over Scorp

if Hyena was Malibu, it'd implicate Weasel as well. Moreover, this means Scorp has now been taken over. Possible, and good to check if anyone can get a response from Scorp in a PM.

We're 7/5 or 8/4 this cycle. One's okay, the other isn't  

I'm going to try something. Heron, if today is lylo, who do you want dead?

[Amber Vulture]

This is a curious result, because it's bad for the theorized elim team. For example, everyone who voted for Hyena over Beagle looks bad now. And Malibu-em presumably didn't body hop, which would have allowed them to kill a Warform at the very least. My instinct is to say double bluff, but given how odd it is, it's worth at least wondering why they made the kill they did. 

Perhaps they're trying to avoid NKing Warform candidates/low activity folk and ran out of options? 

Edit: Lion, how'd you narrow down to Weasel or Scorpion so quick? 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Amber Vulture

[Plum Rhinoceros]

4 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

if Hyena was Malibu, it'd implicate Weasel as well. Moreover, this means Scorp has now been taken over. Possible, and good to check if anyone can get a response from Scorp in a PM.

Scorp responded to my PM with them yesterday, so I'll be able to check.

Edit: Is Falcon not an option? I thought they were in Mateform.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros