Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Charcoal Hyena]

I have less than 4 minutes before I'm heading back to work but Holy Hannah that was a ridiculous end of cycle. 

 

I think that we have a decent chance of the NK being the Mavset-im kill tonight just due to the chaos of voting today. They could have been willing to throw a vote on to protect Beagle at the last second because they can slip away, so we should keep that in mind and make many PMs tonight. 

Gotta be heading out, though. 

[Emerald Falcon]

@Steeldancer Where's my vote on Cream Tuatara? If the vote count is correct, Tuatara is lying about being Nimbleform.

[Steeldancer]

17 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

@Steeldancer Where's my vote on Cream Tuatara? If the vote count is correct, Tuatara is lying about being Nimbleform.

Oops that was a GM mistake, my bad. Stupid vote count was ridiculous. 

For the record, if it had been Workform, all votes would have appeared, but the count would be one lower. 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Steeldancer
Explanation

[Opal Lion]

27 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

@Steeldancer Where's my vote on Cream Tuatara? If the vote count is correct, Tuatara is lying about being Nimbleform.

10 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Oops that was a GM mistake, my bad. Stupid vote count was ridiculous. 

Possible to confirm that the vote count on Tuatara is correct? i.e. two names but only one vote? If so, good shout, Falcon.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion
extra space

[Indigo Weasel]

I think one of Beagle and Tuatara is elim

I need to go reread those votes

I was backpacking

I'm Hyena's mate. (Yes, I have two at once )

I've grabbed 3 village gemstones, two types. Yes, I should maybe not have done that. I don't know. 

 

[Steeldancer]

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

Possible to confirm that the vote count on Tuatara is correct? i.e. two names but only one vote? If so, good shout, Falcon.

I fixed the vote entirely, it should be completely correct now. 

[Amber Vulture]

48 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I've grabbed 3 village gemstones, two types. Yes, I should maybe not have done that. I don't know. 

Seems like an elim hoarding gems 

[Cream Tuatara]

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I think one of Beagle and Tuatara is elim

I need to go reread those votes

I was backpacking

I'm Hyena's mate. (Yes, I have two at once )

I've grabbed 3 village gemstones, two types. Yes, I should maybe not have done that. I don't know. 

 

Considering Beagle is pretty much confirmed elim alongside Heron, that statement is, while true, kinda invalidated.

I'm guessing one of them is Mavset, so maybe we should all make PMs tonight to try and see who's the converter tomorrow. I have an extra artform gem I have no idea of what to do with, so there's that.

Edit: Rollover is already a bit early for me, but if everyone else is good with it, it can be pushed back.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Cream Tuatara

[Opal Lion]

2 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

So our D1 Seven:

Me, Ross, Ostrich, Flamingo, Dingo

Claimed: Tuatara, Hyena.

Seems like Mouse did in fact get something D1, or one of our two claimants is lying. Or someone is lying about their N1 actions, that's possible too.

Just to repeat: we know from the flip and the inactivity kills that Ostrich and Ross didn't get anything. Dingo died in dullform and was active through D2 so if they had a gem, they'd likely have used it. I used a PM action N1: this was noted by Ross, Rhino, and Vulture.

Vulture, I'm curious about your missing that Swan was dead. This isn't the first time it's come up.

I've brought this up because let's return to the D1 Seven.

Eighteen players. We remove Swan because OoA means Swan did not have opportunity to collect a gem. (Go to the dead doc, do not pass go, do not collect 200 broams...) Crocodile did not go for a warform/scholarform gem. We know this because her gem returned to the stash, whatever it was, just that it wasn't a mateform gem.

Of the eighteen:

• Six successfully obtained non warform/scholarform gems: our four mateform claimants (Scorp, Weasel, Falcon, Penguin), and the lone artform claimant (whoever it was; they haven't used it since.)
   
• Twelve got into a brawl over the warform/scholarform gems: this is simple mathematics; we deduct from the six that successfully obtained non warform/scholarform gems. Of this twelve, five successfully obtained gems (three warform, and two scholarform.) Seven - our D1 seven - did not.
   
• Since everyone except Mavset-im is roleless D1, everyone except Mavset-im has absolute priority in scoring gems. Recall that roleless have absolute priority over players with roles. In other words, as long as Village and Elim roleless are going for the gems, Mavset-im will not get a gem. So Mavset-im has to be among our seven.
   
• Recall also that Villagers do get a higher probability of success as compared to Elims in collecting gems. In other words, the more Villagers there are in the warform/scholarform brawl, the higher our credence should be that a Villager collected the gems. Of course, weird things can go down, RNGesus can troll. But it's worth looking at the overall picture.

Who are our current seven?

<Me, Ross, Ostrich, Flamingo, Dingo, Tuatara, Hyena.>

Assume that a Villager wouldn't lie about this; an Elim might.

Hyena has a role insofar as that Weasel is vouching for them. I have proven my role to Dragonfly and Vulture. Which means that Mavset-im must be either Flamingo or Tuatara, because recall that as a player with a role, Mavset-im does not have absolute priority in getting a gem. Mavset-im automatically loses in a gem grabbing fight as long as there are roleless and on D1, everyone but Mavset-im is roleless.

But there's another interesting consequence. Where are the Elims?

If we think Tuatara, me, and Hyena are likely Village to differing extents, we have a problem. Well, several problems.

<Me, Ross, Ostrich, Flamingo, Dingo, Tuatara, Hyena.>

This implies that Flamingo is likely Elim. If Flamingo isn't Elim, then we have another problem: namely, that we think all seven of the D1 seven are Village. Even if we think Tuatara, me, and Hyena are all likely Village, we still think six of the D1 seven are Village. This has to be deeply problematic because where are the Elims then?

We are committed to one of two views, or a mix of them:

• <Rhino, Dragonfly, Vulture, Beagle, Heron>: WarScholar Five
• <Scorp, Weasel, Falcon, Penguin, Mouse(?)/Artform #1>: Fabulous Five

The more Villagers there are in the pool of seven, the more we are committed to the view that despite the statistical unlikeliness (which admittedly, we don't know about), there are Elims in WarScholar Five. Alternatively, we must be committed to the view that the Elims all went for mateform and/or artform, which makes I think a bit less sense. The actual view might be a mix: some Elims going for the WarScholar brawl, and some going for mateform. The fewer we think went for mateform, the more we have to allocate Elims to either WarScholar Five or the D1 Seven.

What I am saying is that the two views as currently stated:

(V1): WarScholar Five is mostly Village
(V2): D1 Seven is mostly Village

are incompatible, or at least, probabilistically weird. They also entail that:

(V3) The Fabulous Five is mostly Elim.

Furthermore, we have, in my view, three main candidates for Mavset-im. Because roleless, recall, receive absolute priority for a gem over Mavset-im:

If Mavset-im went for the WarScholar huddle, we expect to find Mavset-im in the set of <Tuatara, Flamingo>

If Mavset-im went for the Fabulous Five, we expect to find Mavset-im in the set of: <Artform #1/Mouse(?)>

[Note: Mavset-im may not be Mouse - Mouse may not be Artform #1, but if so, someone in WarScholar Five is Artform #1 [i.e. Vulture, Beagle, and Heron]; alternatively, one of Tuatara, Hyena, or Flamingo is Artform #1.]

Mavset-im could have gone for a mateform gem D1 but I find it unlikely; they would have needed a Night turn to pass the gem for a teammate to use; said Elim would have attuned N2 instead. The only player this happened to was Penguin, who is known Village. In theory, Falcon could have also attuned N2 and lied about having spent another turn in mateform, but this would make Falcon and Mavset-im Elim teammates. This was also a risk on Falcon's part so I find that a bit unlikely, as they might not have known whether Penguin was already in mateform N1.

Mavset-im could have gone for the artform gemstone, just to make up numbers. This explains why we have seen no sign of the artform gemstone being used. But I find that a bit more unlikely because I think that if Mavset-im were playing deprivation, they could've tried going for mediationform or workform. Perhaps they expected both forms to be popular as well, but I ascribe low probability to the thought that Mavset-im went artform.

tldr;

• Someone in <Flamingo, Hyena, and Tuatara> is Mavset-im. For Hyena to be Mavset-im requires a bit more lying about mateform than seems plausible, so realistically, either Tuatara or Flamingo is Mavset-im.
   
• Mouse/Artform #1(?) could be Mavset-im but I ascribe lower probability.
   
• The more people in D1 Seven you think are Village, the more Heron's assertion about WarScholar Five being largely Village doesn't seem plausible. The only alternative is to postulate high Elim penetration in the Fabulous Five. That doesn't seem likely either.

8 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

I'm guessing one of them is Mavset, so maybe we should all make PMs tonight to try and see who's the converter tomorrow. I have an extra artform gem I have no idea of what to do with, so there's that.

When did you claim the artform gem then? D1?

Edited to add:

On 7/29/2021 at 1:33 PM, Cream Tuatara said:

I'll say that I did get a gem from the stash, but it was on d2, not d1.

Mmm, lies...

I'm the person who grabbed the D2 artform gem, Tuatara. I know this. You really want to thunderdome with me?  

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Cream Tuatara]

12 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

When did you claim the artform gem then? D1?

Yesterday, it was my second action alongside making a PM with Flamingo, who has declined to respond.

[Opal Lion]

4 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Yesterday, it was my second action alongside making a PM with Flamingo, who has declined to respond.

Checks out for me, thanks for clarifying!  

Edit: Recommend broad spread of PMs - try to go for the maximum of four players. That way, we can detect if Mavset-im hops as I expect Mavset-im to make an emergency hop tonight.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Amethyst Scorpion]

That was…madness. Wish I’d gotten back on in time to help break the tie. Oh well. Maybe we can figure something out from the madness? I’m guessing one of Beagle or Hyena is Elim. Not sure what to think about Tuatara now. I don’t like reasoning based on their D1 post, but the fact they hadn’t voted isn’t good (they did vote last cycle after that was pointed out). Not necessarily Elim, but could be a way to try and fly under the radar that worked until now.

I guess we wait now. And hope for the best.

[Opal Lion]

1 minute ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

That was…madness.

Spoiler

 

[Amber Vulture]

1 hour ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

That was…madness. Wish I’d gotten back on in time to help break the tie. Oh well. Maybe we can figure something out from the madness? I’m guessing one of Beagle or Hyena is Elim. Not sure what to think about Tuatara now. I don’t like reasoning based on their D1 post, but the fact they hadn’t voted isn’t good (they did vote last cycle after that was pointed out). Not necessarily Elim, but could be a way to try and fly under the radar that worked until now.

I guess we wait now. And hope for the best.

There's 4-5 elims. Any guesses on a team composition? Asking because that should be a difficult exercise for the elims to do right now, given how many village trusts there are. 

Edit: finally got around to reading that Lion post. Malibu-em being a role Nd the implications of that is a connection I didn't make, so good job Lion. My bet would be its Flamingo, who is not Swan

Edited July 30, 2021 by Amber Vulture

[Opal Lion]

57 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Malibu-em

...This teaches me to drink tea while reading SE and at a keyboard.

Wyrm, you see this? +1 to Vulture.

I'm calling 'em Malibu-em from now on.

[Emerald Falcon]

@Steeldancer Just so we're all operating on accurate assumptions, let me ask this. Can Mavset-Im take on Forms? I just want to make sure we're not assuming something that isn't true, because I don't see any evidence one way or another.

[Onyx Flamingo]

4 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

If Flamingo isn't making PMs, what's a Villager doing with extra actions?

Not nimbleform. Just lost Workform, actually. I figured my priority was on voting my conscience rather than voting on someone I suspected less just to keep my role.

I haven't PMd anyone. I know that's not great, but I've been a little overworked this week and haven't put a lot of thought into any actions.

[Opal Lion]

13 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

@Steeldancer Just so we're all operating on accurate assumptions, let me ask this. Can Mavset-Im take on Forms? I just want to make sure we're not assuming something that isn't true, because I don't see any evidence one way or another.

Brave of you to assume I don't assault @Steeldancer with questions on a daily/hourly basis before making assertions about the rules, but ultimately a wise position  

Note: There is one situation in which I think Hyena could be Malibu-em. Suppose:

Hyena claims the mateform gem D3. Hyena is Malibu-em so Hyena can't use the gem, but Weasel claims to have been partnered with Hyena anyway. The other mateform gem person pairs up with @Emerald Falcon - I'd like to confirm you're the one who received a new partner. It's a good alibi but it would imply both Weasel and Hyena are Evil together.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Not nimbleform. Just lost Workform, actually. I figured my priority was on voting my conscience rather than voting on someone I suspected less just to keep my role.

I haven't PMd anyone. I know that's not great, but I've been a little overworked this week and haven't put a lot of thought into any actions.

That's interesting because no workform gems were taken D2, which means the earliest you got a gem was D3.

What happened D2?

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Onyx Flamingo]

4 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

What happened D2?

I had the worst luck of all. Tried for one of the two mediation form gems and lost.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Alright guys, so Flamingo is Malibu-em? Cool.

And then Beagle/Heron are evil too, with... Mouse and Falcon as the others I guess? But we can start with the first three. I think that's what you all decided. I concur.

Everyone should send a PM to three others that they're not in a PM with, in case Malibu makes a run for it. Though I guess if Flamingo (or Tuatara/Hyena I guess :P) dies tonight it'll be... sorta obvious that Malibu made the switch. Alternitively, the elims could just like kill Tuatara/Hyena (aka non Malibu) to confuse us. Let the mind games begin!

Sorry for leaving five minutes before rollover and not reacting quickly or decisively enough when I got back with one minute on the clock. Theoretically I would have voted Beagle if I had been paying attention the whole time, but... I don't actually know :P.

[Oxblood Beagle]

Well.

Obviously I did not have time to finish my large post, as I ran out of time and was evidently too ambitious in how to analyze. It's not one of my strong suits and even less so for Beagle's, and I'm running out of time both IRL to do large undertakings like that and, evidently, in game. Fortunately, defending myself tends to be one of those strong suits.

And my eyelid is twitching uncontrollably for some storming reason.

So I'll start from the top.

18 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

Scholarform is the only gem that needs you to meet a word limit besides the fairly useless (no offence) Artform. I doubt it's a gem someone who acquired it would be inclined to lose by failing to meet the requirements. I assumed any villager who got it would immediately use it, likely to make Warform because that's rare and valuable. That didn't happen. But you could have made that assumption too and realized you didn't need to focus on that requirement after D2. 

I think an elim got the Scholarform gem. Since I got the other one, they refrained from using it until after I had, so I wouldn't see what they made. Presumably they'll use it today and do something like make Decayform, which at this point I suspect may not have been in the initial elim supply. That last bit is conjuncture, but the point is, Scholarform seems to have been grabbed by an elim, so I'd like a denial or counter-theory why a villager wouldn't have used it

I assume by saying "that didn't happen" you mean you know the Other Scholar didn't try to make a Warform Gem D2?

Because here's the thing. I'm not the Other Scholar, and so I have no idea what you're seeing as you try and make Gems. At least, that's the story I'm going with. Maybe I'm lying, but Do you know automatically what Gems have been made, or are you just told that a Gem you tried to make has already been made? If it's the second, isn't the only way to see if the Other Scholar has been making Regal Gems is to try and make them yourself?

15 hours ago, Cream Tuatara said:

So, uh, why am I picking up steam again? Mouse seems to want their opinions on my d1 post to be heard, and I won't sus them too hard for that, but Beagle seems to just be jumping on a train that requires little reason to go on, without bringing much suspicion with it. Normally, I would give them the benefit of the doubt due to their inactivity, but it seems like they've just been flying under the radar, considering they've voted every day except d1, they seem to be keeping either a constant soft warform, or trying to influence the exe without being really noticed.

Why were you picking up speed? Because after the D1 post analysis and that post's backlash, you haven't given any opinions. We're both flying under the radar (or were), although I was a bit more present. It's also a way to encourage myself to be more active, which is slightly hypocritical but it works.

I also don't think I've actually influenced any of the exes aside from this one. D1 I didn't vote, D2 I voted on myself, D3 I was the third extra vote on the main exe candidate at the end of the round.

In short, I asked you several questions in an attempt to see where you stood, you did not respond, so I voted for you.

9 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

I am half-tempted to go Weasel, to join Tuatara on Beagle, or to -

You know what.

Hyena Beagle - because I like Beagles but I think Oxblood is a bad colour on them  

Fair.

8 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

Tuatara, how sticky is your vote? I think you're a villager, so you might get spooked by the pile-on I think is coming. But we need to consolidate the vote, so having reevaluated the WGG likelihood (Mouse, despite having a bad vote this round, made a good point), and having a dislike of Beagle's reaction to my Scholarform questions, I'm moving my vote there. I still get bad vibes from Hyena. They leaned heavily into rules analysis there and other irrelevant trains of thought; Mateform is an easy Gem for the elims to fake having because they can claim a fellow elim is the partner. But if Hyena looks set to die, they probably don't want to do that because it gives us a free elim after. Looking at it, I actually feel more confident about Hyena, but we all know I'm just gonna switch to make the most viable train anyway. I assume Rhino will do the same, so Lion, Dragonfly, you two are our kingmakers at this point. Rhino  Beagle

Said this earlier, but your Scholarform question was why I didn't claim. I don't want to claim, but since you're assuming I am a Scholarform with most of your questions, I need to provide a counterpoint. But it is a reason, I suppose.

6 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Well, I need to be leaving and I might be back for all of 5 minutes before rollover, but I might not. Hard to tell, so I figure it's best to get a vote out before I leave. Beagle for now. I don't have the strongest elim read on them, but I really don't have the strongest elim read on anyone at the moment, and it seems to be the best option to me, both to keep myself alive and to go after a potential elim. 

Fair.

6 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

I mention this because if you want to info lynch, please be aware we are at a stage where we are close to not being able to afford LAFO. If you're a voting Villager, please consider going after someone you actually really suspect.

I am partly guilty of this as I doubled up on Beagle. It's partly a gut thing, but also partly a hope I could at least provoke something readable by putting Beagle under pressure, though I admit I came late to this in the turn, probably because I like doing squats with Rhino  Part of this comes from a conclusion I have no choice but to draw:

---

Long story short, my own reason for going after Hyena boils down to what appears to be bad, peripheral voting on D1, and Elim behaviour profiling. I don't feel it's substantially strong but it's what I was feeling. I'm interested in why the post failed to soften your read on them: I take the point on the alibi but the tone of their post is what made me hesitate as I actually disagree with their alibi point. I feel as though I have slightly stronger reasons to go after Heron or Falcon, whereas for Beagle, it's largely gut at the moment, and a desire to see if pressure makes anything pop out.

Unfortunately, I woke up late and spent my online time trying to figure out what the storms was happening and then self-preservation voting. I'm going through those posts now, and might have time this evening to work on my post-by-post analysis. Mechanical analysis is likely more helpful at this point though, and you're right that I'm not very mechanically interesting. You probably have a few guesses as to why, but there's not much I can do right now except try and get into Workform this turn.

5 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

I'll go for Beagle, mostly for gemstone reasons.

Gemstone reasons?

5 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

At this point, there's a few reasonable suspects we could vote on, but we need to pick only one for today. Hyena voting Beagle looks like a vote splitting tactic; but I'll reevaluate that guess based on whether they throw a vote on Tuatara later. 

I think the only people moving votes right now are villagers (besides maybe Swan, who may have gotten caught out on a distance vote they needed to retract). 

I accuse Hyena. I think they are suspicious because they hate cats. 

Beagle, Hyena.

Dragonfly, are ya willing to vote on Hyena for consolidation purposes? 

Quick shift, but you did say you were suspicious of Hyena before. Trying to rope Dragonfly into it is also interesting, especially since they did in fact swap.

5 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

[OOC: It is currently a tie. I guess I am the one who has to decide who dies this turn. Of the three candidates for the exe, I only really truly suspect Tuatara. Though that is mostly because of early D1 things and a tone that just rubs me the wrong way still. I don't really suspect Beagle at all, and I personally think that the Beagle train is likely a reaction to Hyena getting a train on them out of nowhere. Convenient that Hyena shows up out of nowhere right as a train forms on him, yes? I think I am going to vote for....

Wow, okay, a lot just happened. Okay, after that all sorts itself out, my points still stand. I think I am going to vote for Hyena. Most of my suspicion for Tuatara has been driven by their first post in the game, and I really don't think they have done much to suspect since then. Though I am suspicious of their vote on Beagle. But I think, based solely on votes and timing of this turn, Hyena is our best bet.

Here is the new VC:

Hyena (4): Lion, Rhino, Vulture, Heron
Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Beagle (3): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly
Heron (1): Flamingo
Vulture (1): Scorpion

This is nerve-wracking. I hope this is the right move.]

Some points, some fair, others not so much. My train had its reasons, although I have my questions.

What changed? You wanted to vote for Tuatara, and it seems that you read something that changed your mind and voted for Hyena... but if it was a tie originally, what changed to change who you voted for?

6 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

Heron evil

eeeeeeee, beagle

Bounce

6 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Well, this is unfortunate.

Tuatara Hyena

Bounce

6 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Agreed

6 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Beagle, Hyena to avoid a tie I suppose. Though I deliberately voted for Beagle over Hyena.

Bounce

6 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Beagle

Bounce

6 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Hyena, Beagle

Attempted Bounce (Literally within the same minute as the previous one, which is... interesting, although makes sense because the avoid-a-tie-vote was tied by Lion.)

5 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

Anyway, my ongoing theory about the round was the elims tried to present Tuatara as a mix candidate. So mild sus on Mouse and Falcon. Then come rollover, it appears to have been v!Hyena vs e!Beagle and thanks to some last minute pressure, they were forced to show their hands to protect their teammate. Specifically Heron, while Beagle was the person under pressure.

I'm clearing everyone who voted on Beagle: Tuatara, Lion, Dragonfly (they tried), Hyena.

Rhino I'm putting down as light village because they seemed conflicted. But obviously the vote was in the wrong spot, and that's hard to ignore. But I'm not even going to consider him until Beagle and Heron are exed.

And well Lion was wrong, but they got their vote to the right spot in the end so that's nice. I'll admit I was basically sheeping because they'd done more hard analysis.

The only thing that might mess with this theory is if it was e-e and Beagle is Warform, because then the elims might have preferred the no kill.

That is a possible explanation, and Heron's actions are similarly confusing to me, but as I said before, I wasn't on until just the end of the cycle so I wouldn't know. Also, clearing everyone on me seems... a bit presumptuous. Particularly Dragonfly, who managed to just barely dance around actually voting on me, and Tuatara, who's vote seemed to be solely retaliatory, and yourself, because you're clearing yourself.

What am I? Scholarform Elim? Scholarform Village? Warform Elim? Something else entirely? Most of your suspicions seem to be fitting me in specific scenarios, which is essentially confirmation-biasing your way to another execution of me, aside from Heron's actions.

Which leads into my next query, I suppose - Beagle or Heron? Which will you go for tomorrow?

2 hours ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Considering Beagle is pretty much confirmed elim alongside Heron, that statement is, while true, kinda invalidated.

Now I'm confirmed Elim? You wanted me dead before Heron interfered. Again, reasons change, suspicions stay the same.

 

I just realized this will tag almost literally everyone. Well, so be it. I'll be gone for a few hours but will be back earlier than usual. Tag/quote me if you need anything important.

[Opal Lion]

5 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Alright guys, so Flamingo is Malibu-em? Cool.

Theoretically. Could be: Tuatara or Mouse - lower credence from Mouse, actually I'd just like to hear from @Azure Mouse. Did you or did you not go for artform D1? If you did, can you prove it?

One final possibility is that it's Hyena but this requires: Hyena to be Elim with Weasel, and me to hear back from Steel about a clarificatory question I had on the mate PM selection process. I theorise that if I'm right about this possibility, then [Edited to add: Hyena kept the gem, didn't use it, and Falcon's new PM partner is the other mateform.]

Note that this doesn't include any analysis of the - clusterchull that went down in the last moments of the Day Turn. If you have higher credence in Tuatara and Hyena being Village due to the voting and Beagle's behaviour, then I'd say it certainly points quite strongly to Flamingo.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Onyx Flamingo]

3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

so Flamingo is Malibu-em?

Wrong coast for Flamingos.

[Opal Lion]

3 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Maybe I'm lying, but Do you know automatically what Gems have been made, or are you just told that a Gem you tried to make has already been made?

I actually asked Steel about this. The response is that ideally the Scholars know at the start of the Turn, but in practice, since he can forget, he'll let them know when someone sends an action in. So Steel automatically notifies them but in practice that can be iffy.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Plum Rhinoceros]

8 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

Theoretically. Could be: Tuatara or Mouse 

Yeah, I know- just after their last post on the first page and their first post on this one, I went from unsure from the group to no longer unsure from the group.