Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Opal Lion]

2 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Yeah, I know- just after their last post on the first page and their first post on this one, I went from unsure from the group to no longer unsure from the group.

How so?

Genuine question - AG7 and this game and really my SE history proves post analysis is my weakness. I'm more a mech analysis/vote analysis/pathwalking guy so I play to my strengths. Be interested in what you see.

Edited to add:

12 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Attempted Bounce (Literally within the same minute as the previous one, which is... interesting, although makes sense because the avoid-a-tie-vote was tied by Lion.)

:sob: I tried, I even cut my RP short for this y'all 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Steeldancer]

51 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

@Steeldancer Just so we're all operating on accurate assumptions, let me ask this. Can Mavset-Im take on Forms? I just want to make sure we're not assuming something that isn't true, because I don't see any evidence one way or another.

No. They can't. After all, Fused are already Spren of a fashion...

Don't even get me started on Lions constant rule clarifications. 

[Opal Lion]

Just now, Steeldancer said:

Don't even get me started on Lions constant rule clarifications. 

I'm sorry, but I appreciate your patience and swift replies  

[Plum Rhinoceros]

9 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

How so?

Genuine question - AG7 and this game and really my SE history proves post analysis is my weakness. I'm more a mech analysis/vote analysis/pathwalking guy so I play to my strengths. Be interested in what you see.

I see a whole lot of convenience with their claims of losing forms and not getting any gems... to me looks like Malibu's trying to explain why they're not in a form. 

[Opal Lion]

39 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

I see a whole lot of convenience with their claims of losing forms and not getting any gems... to me looks like Malibu's trying to explain why they're not in a form. 

That's fair, I just want to hear from Mouse too. Nimbleform can be soft-proven but it's convenient/a problem that Tuatara happened to only PM Flamingo since Flamingo is sort of a suspect as well.

I think to me, there's also: why go for workform as a Villager, especially at this stage? I suppose workform is at least provable but since no one voted on Flamingo...

Part of...hmm. 

Alright. Back to the D1 Seven and the Fabulous Five.

<Lion, Ross, Ostrich, Dingo, Flamingo, Tuatara, Hyena> and <Scorp, Weasel, Falcon, Penguin, Mouse(?)>

• Ross, Ostrich, and Dingo all died in dullform.
• Lion is in artform.
• @Amethyst Scorpion, @Emerald Falcon, is it possible for you to reply with a simple yes/no whether you remain in mateform?

Here's what I'm thinking. Were the mateform gems even used? Hyena claims to have used one, and Weasel claims to have remained in mateform. But I wonder if we can at least partly track the fate of the gems.

D2:

Quote

- 2 nimbleform gems
- 1 artform gem (it me  )
- 2 mediationform gems

There's technically no incentive for Scorp and Weasel to remain in mateform; they'd keep the PM. Scorp might've taken a gem, and Weasel claims to be a serial gem collector. 

5 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I've grabbed 3 village gemstones, two types. Yes, I should maybe not have done that. I don't know. 

Weasel, is it possible for you to further claim which Days you grabbed gemstones on?

We know minimally that one type has to be mateform. It would be strange if Weasel got their hands on a mediationform gemstone - because if they did, then Flamingo or Weasel is lying. If Flamingo were really a roleless Villager, Weasel should never have beaten them to the punch on a mediationform gemstone. Roleless always has absolute priority. 

Huh. Holy frith. ... Roleless always has absolute priority. The only people who could beat Flamingo to the punch on a mediationform gemstone are: Tuatara, Hyena, and me. 

And I most definitely went for an artform gemstone.

Hyena claims to have been inactive D2 and then collected a D3 mateform gemstone. From their post history, they were present N2, so this might or might not check out, I'm not sure.

Tuatara claims to have gone for nimbleform D2 rather than mediationform.

If Hyena and Tuatara are both telling the truth, anyone who fought Flamingo for a mediationform gemstone should have lost - because the only people who could have won over Flamingo are roleless. Roleless have absolute priority when going for gemstones. If Flamingo is truthful about not getting the gemstone, then Hyena and Tuatara are both lying and both Elims.

We take different paths, @Plum Rhinoceros. But we get there in the end.

Edited to add: In fact, if Flamingo is telling the truth, both Hyena and Tuatara must be lying, because there are two mediationform gemstones, and if one of them is lying, then Flamingo would still have successfully claimed the mediationform gemstone. This doesn't exclude the possibility that one of them and Flamingo are both lying, but that if we think Flamingo is truthful, then it must, of necessity, implicate both Hyena and Tuatara in a lie. That doesn't look good for Village cred.

tldr; bad Flamingo (maybe Hyena/Tuatara as well) or bad Hyena and Tuatara, take your pick. But I think I smell Malibu.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion
formatting for conclusion

[Onyx Flamingo]

14 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

why go for workform as a Villager, especially at this stage?

Because why leave it for elims to grab freely and use when they were under suspicion? I wasn't worried about actually keeping it (hence why I was fine voting a suspicion rather than staying with a train), but wanted to get it removed.

[Opal Lion]

23 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Because why leave it for elims to grab freely and use when they were under suspicion? I wasn't worried about actually keeping it (hence why I was fine voting a suspicion rather than staying with a train), but wanted to get it removed.

Sorry, Malibu. I'd like to believe that but it doesn't check out. According to the rules, roleless Villagers and roleless Elims both have absolute priority when contesting for gemstones. There's only one way you could have failed to get mediationform and still be a roleless Villager and that requires both Hyena and Tuatara to be roleless Elims lying about their actions. But that's immediately very likely false. If one of them were Malibu, you'd beat them. If you were really a roleless Villager (or Elim!), you'd beat anyone else to the two mediationform gems.

Here are the possibilities as I see them:

• Roleless Villager Flamingo loses to Elims Hyena and Tuatara. For this to be true, Flamingo has to be very unlucky, and Hyena, Tuatara, and Mouse must all be Elims together. This is because for Flamingo to be a roleless Villager and lose, Hyena and Tuatara must both be roleless Elims. But then, Mouse has to be Malibu. If Mouse isn't Malibu, then we're forced to postulate mateform lying which drags both Scorpion and Weasel into the fray. Falcon is unlikely to be implicated because Penguin was Village. Just to recap, if you're really a roleless Villager, Flamingo, we know four Elims off your flip. Though I grant parity wincon may mean we can't afford that which is why I urge all Villagers with mediationform to use it.
  
  Likelihood: Unlikely. Would require an Elim team to tie themselves together in absurd ways.
   
• Roleless Villager Flamingo loses to Scorp/Weasel/other Villagers. For this to be true, we have to be mistaken about the D1 Seven. This immediately requires both Hyena and Tuatara to be lying about failing to collect gemstones D1, and requires whichever other players e.g. Scorp (which would by the way also implicate Weasel) to be lying about having successfully secured gemstones D1.
  
  Likelihood: I'm just going to say that if, for what you say to be true, nearly 1/5 of the game has to be lying, you're probably the problem here
   
• Malibu Flamingo loses to Scorp/Weasel/other Villagers. This would still require Flamingo to be unlucky but this is actually permissible by the rules and I suspect this is the most likely scenario here.

Roleless always win. Roleless have absolute priority. I asked Steel as much during N1:

Quote

Steel: 

 

If you really are roleless - even a roleless Elim - you would have won that fight for mediationform handsdown, especially if it was against Weasel, who claims mateform and is backed by Scorpion. The most straightforward explanation as to why you lost is you are Malibu.

Edit: I may not live to see the dawn, but Flamingo. Making my thoughts clear.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Indigo Weasel]

I grabbed gems days 1-3

[Cream Tuatara]

59 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

[Redacted]

Or Flamingo is just plain lying.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Opal Lion, I do indeed remain in Mateform at the moment, though I have grabbed one additional gem.

Edit: Also, I’m solidly onboard the logic of Flamingo being Mavset-im. I hoped we’d be able to nail down that role soon and while I couldn’t work it out myself, I think we have it.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Amethyst Scorpion

[Opal Lion]

1 minute ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I grabbed gems days 1-3

Thanks Weasel, appreciated

...I'm gonna do that Lion thing again, sorry all >>

6 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I've grabbed 3 village gemstones, two types. Yes, I should maybe not have done that. I don't know. 

1. Look if having the gems makes you happy...Rock it, man 

2. If Weasel is telling the truth, Weasel took another mateform gem. So we're not looking for a missing mateform. It's interesting that Hyena ended up with Weasel, but @Steeldancer clarified that this time around, he RNGed among active (i.e. attuned) mateforms. I'm not taking this as confirmation or denial of Hyena's claim, just on Steel's methods. 

D1:

Spoiler

- 4 mateform gems
- 2 scholarform gems
- 3 warform gems
- 1 artform gem

We know Weasel claimed a mateform gem on D1; that's what has been established by now via Weasel and Scorp.

D2:

Spoiler

- 2 nimbleform gems
- 1 artform gem (it me  )
- 2 mediationform gems

Could've gone for either the nimbleform or mediationform. Not important, but Weasel, if you're Village and have it, please consider using mediationform. We may need it to block an Elim win at parity as they may be very close :/ Other mediationform claimant is Tuatara.

D3:

Spoiler

- 1 nimbleform gem
- 2 mateform gems
- 5 workform gems

I know who took the nimbleform gem. Which means that for Weasel to have only claimed two types of gems, Weasel took another mateform. So one mateform gem with Weasel, one with Hyena. If this ain't true, someone please counterclaim. This does mean a lot of Hyena's truthfulness potentially still leads back to Weasel.

Again, note that I'm not doing vote analysis at all with regard to last Turn. If I have the time and the bandwidth, I'll do it. If we think Hyena is likely Village, then this discussion is moot. I'm just thinking in terms of Hyena's truthfulness about mateform because that's relevant to matters at hand.

Things to note: my credences in Vulture being Village and Rhino being Village have increased. In Vulture's case, he was the first to zoom in on Flamingo as being implicated by the Malibu reasoning, and indeed I think the correct answer is that Flamingo is Malibu. Rhino also pushed this strongly.

[Opal Lion]

6 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Or Flamingo is just plain lying.

That is indeed my conclusion

6 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

@Opal Lion, I do indeed remain in Mateform at the moment, though I have grabbed one additional gem.

Cheers Scorp, I don't remember why I thought it was especially important since I got distracted on the roleless tangent, but since it led to Malibu (potentially), I'm not really complaining. Oh, right - because I was trying to make sense of where Mediationform might've ended up. But now tracing that doesn't really matter. What does matter is roleless priority implies that Flamingo is Malibu and lying  

Edited to add: Sorry for double-post - Scorp's post loaded after mine but not on refresh so IDK what's going on here.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Plum Rhinoceros]

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

We take different paths, @Plum Rhinoceros. But we get there in the end.

Yours just happened to actually be provable

I have mixed feelings about elim roles that can be mechanically caught, but hey, at least Malibu can body hop :P.

[Opal Lion]

Just now, Plum Rhinoceros said:

I have mixed feelings about elim roles that can be mechanically caught, but hey, at least Malibu can body hop :P.

Read the rules next time, Gnordadding  But yeah no we can talk about that in the post-game, I think.

Anyone want to place a bet on whose body is gonna get stolen? Get your PMs ready, everyone 

[Steeldancer]

2 things. Tomorrow is not august, I'm an idiot. Second, we're going to end the turn 2 hours early, at 10AM EDT. 

[Opal Lion]

Note: I think it's a post-game talk because it's still anyone's game to win. Even if I am right about Flamingo, we still have analysis to do about last Turn's results! Village can't afford to get complacent as the Elim team is still rather close to victory. Remember, we're currently on 8/5, or 9/4. Those are still not good numbers.

Let's leave post-game talk for the post-game and do our best to get there  

[Onyx Flamingo]

Please don't bank on me being Malibu. I already said it's the wrong coast for Flamingos. There are elims out there we need to find, and we'll get nowhere by tunneling on me as Malibu. Not to mention we've now created a huge IKYK issue by saying I'm confirmed.

Potential outcome 1: Elims kill v!me to suggest Malibu has hopped, and now we're chasing our tails.

Potential outcome 2: The real Malibu hops, and I'm still alive. If we assume Malibu!me is still a thing, I'm exed and flip village, and suddenly we're back to square one and likely with a trust read suddenly invalidated without our knowledge.

Potential outcome 3: The real Malibu doesn't hop, I'm still exed and we're back at square one chasing our tails.

I'm still certain Heron is a better ex than I am, especially with those vote shenanigans at the end. Also, I promise to explain some more things tomorrow, I just don't want to on a turn with a kill for opsec.

[Cream Tuatara]

32 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

That is indeed my conclusion

Well, if Flamingo is lying about attempting to get the gem for whatever reason, they don't need to be Maliset-im.

[Opal Lion]

23 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Please don't bank on me being Malibu. I already said it's the wrong coast for Flamingos. There are elims out there we need to find, and we'll get nowhere by tunneling on me as Malibu. Not to mention we've now created a huge IKYK issue by saying I'm confirmed.

Hate to break it to you but we actually haven't.

Assume, for the sake of argument, that you're not Malibu. You've lost your form, according to you. If the Elims kill you, kill is first on the OoA. Unless @Azure Mouse is also formless, there is only one possibility if we see you are a dead dullform. And that's...you are a dead dullform. Almost everyone right now is in a form.

P.S. Anyone with a spare PM action, make sure to @ Azure Mouse. 

20 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Well, if Flamingo is lying about attempting to get the gem for whatever reason, they don't need to be Maliset-im.

Here's the problem. It does make them highly sus and therefore likely Elim. And even if we don't get Malibu, getting an Elim is still pretty good.

It's back to the D1 problem. Malibu has to be in the D1 Seven or the Fabulous Five. It is impossible - by Steel's own rules - that Malibu can get the warform/scholarform gem. The fact that I failed and you/Hyena failed is sufficient because any of us should have gotten the gem before Malibu. Remember that Malibu is the only player with a role D1 and so disadvantaged in gem grabs.

Here's the next question. Assume Malibu is in the D1 Seven. Who can it be?

It's not me - I've proven artform to Dragonfly and Vulture, and I have further easter eggs buried in the art I can prove. It can't be Ross, Dingo, or Ostrich - all of them died dullform.

So is it you or Hyena? Remember that we know from the gem stash difference between D1 and D2 that ten gems were taken. For whatever reason, seven players failed to take gems or chose not to. If Flamingo lied about not getting a gem, then someone else is keeping quiet as well. Someone else who didn't get a gem. And that someone else can only either be Mouse, or Scorp and Weasel are both Elims together and covering for Malibu. 

Just to recap, how this option works: either: Mouse is actually Malibu, meaning Flamingo lied about not getting a gem, or one of Scorp and Weasel is Malibu, which means the other is an Elim covering for them. Depending on how this scenario pans out, this requires Flamingo lied about getting a mateform gem which they have absolutely zero reason to do, no one cares about that, and someone should have called Flamingo on it by this point, namely their actual mate. (Generally, this is the problem with any mateform lies that don't postulate both Scorp and Weasel actually took mateform gems, even if the Malibu there didn't necessarily attune it.) [Edited to add: The other possibility in this scenario if Mouse is Malibu is that Flamingo lied about getting an artform gem. Artform. The logic doesn't work out.]

The other option is that Malibu is hiding among the WarScholar Five. But we know ten gems were taken, which means seven players don't have gems, which means someone in the D1 Seven actually has a WarScholar gem and is covering for Malibu. Is it you? Is it Hyena? Because it sure ain't me, and Ross, Ostrich, and Dingo are dead and we know they don't have it. They died dullform. The only answer in that scenario is that it's Flamingo who is covering for Malibu, which makes Flamingo Evil.

But here's the bigger problem. Flamingo has indeed attempted to vote daily but I don't buy they succeeded and got the warform gem, which I think is their next excuse. No player would fail to immediately use the gem and acquire a passive life, since it literally doesn't kick in until you get hit. If you delay until N2, you are out of synch with everyone else, and you have no protection for C2, which is a strange set of risks for a Villager to take. Warform!Flamingo had no reason to PM me N1 instead of using that gem. In fact, no Elim would start in smokeform, so C1 is the safest time to be using a gem because you can't be spied on.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Onyx Flamingo]

18 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

Flamingo has indeed attempted to vote daily but I don't buy they succeeded and got the warform gem, which I think is their next excuse.

I didn't lie about getting a warform gem. I promise I have a reason, I just don't want to say it tonight for opsec reasons, which seems pointless at this point anyway but I'm going to stick with it just in case.

[Opal Lion]

4 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I didn't lie about getting a warform gem. I promise I have a reason, I just don't want to say it tonight for opsec reasons, which seems pointless at this point anyway but I'm going to stick with it just in case.

You do realise it's even worse if you try to claim scholarform right? I've been tracking and you haven't actually met the scholarform requirements. Which means for...opsec reasons, you have been sitting on a gem rather than attuning to it and using it to help the Village.

[Onyx Flamingo]

3 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

You do realise it's even worse if you try to claim scholarform right? I've been tracking and you haven't actually met the scholarform requirements. Which means for...opsec reasons, you have been sitting on a gem rather than attuning to it and using it to help the Village.

That was never my plan. I never wanted scholarform. Too much work to make posts that big. It's also why I avoided artform.

Edit: I just need you to trust me enough to let me live through the next day turn. All that requires is taking the route of exing Heron, who we've also nearly confirmed as elim.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Onyx Flamingo

[Amber Vulture]

I wouldn't mind if they claimed Scholarform. If Beagle says they don't, at this point I just want to know who has it  

Also, Lion's Artform story checks out. And the rest of his stuff seems legit. I'm excited to see whether the elims forgo the strategic move of attacking a village Warformer just to get rid of him, or if they're willing to go toe to toe. Pass me some of that popcorn, Steel! 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

6 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

Edit: I just need you to trust me enough to let me live through the next day turn. All that requires is taking the route of exing Heron, who we've also nearly confirmed as elim.

Do we get to know why? Like... and you say Heron is nearly confirmed, which they're not. They just actively chose Beagle over Tuatara/Hyena, and Beagle isn't confirmed elim and Tuatara/Hyena aren't confirmed village. (Pretty sure, anyway.) So it's all just speculation.

Which to be fair, you're not confirmed either. But you're also not just speculation.

Edit: And like what can a Workform (I assume you mean Workform, though you said Warform) even do for opsec? Or any of the forms besides maybe Scholar/Art which you said you didn't have?

Edited July 31, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Onyx Flamingo]

1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Do we get to know why? Like... and you say Heron is nearly confirmed, which they're not. They just actively chose Beagle over Tuatara/Hyena, and Beagle isn't confirmed elim and Tuatara/Hyena aren't confirmed village. (Pretty sure, anyway.) So it's all just speculation.

Which to be fair, you're not confirmed either. But you're also not just speculation.

I'll say tomorrow, so long as I don't get killed tonight. But letting me live will give me a chance to prove it.

And to me Heron is confirmed because why would they choose to exe Hyena when Tuatara has been their stated suspicion all game without votes ever sticking. I don't see their vote as necessarily picking to save Beagle, but avoiding voting on Tuatara.