Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Biplet she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

I don't see you saying he's wrong :eyes:

Lmao what am I supposed to say? If I'm village, I'd say he's wrong. If I'm an elim, I'd say he's wrong XD

[---]

Wait Devo is in the game now?

EDIT: oh, yeah they are. lmao. hi!

EDIT:

4 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Lmao what am I supposed to say? If I'm village, I'd say he's wrong. If I'm an elim, I'd say he's wrong XD

Aha! which means you are the 3p and on Matrim's team. I have solved the game yet again. this time It's right, I swear.

Edited March 20, 2021 by Illwei

[Biplet she/her]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Aha! which means you are the 3p and on Matrim's team. I have solved the game yet again. this time It's right, I swear.

Aw beans, you got me!

[Quintessential she/her]

 

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Perhaps TMI on the kill? I wouldn't have killed Matrim, because I think you were potentially setting him up to be the next cycle's ML.

I'm kind of confused what TMI has to do with this? The only people who have TMI on Mat are (potentially) his own team. And that's only if he's Mistborn. Also, yeah, I was voting for Mat last cycle to make it clear that the vote I intended to place on him this cycle wasn't just coming out of nowhere. Of course, turns out that wouldn't have been an issue but I didn't know that : P

12 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Why wouldn't they attack him? because confusion. I think that he's basically confirmed Elim, and I don't see a reason to wait on that. Kill me next cycle or something, or- "Why not let the Elims kill me off!" (that was a mocking tone, fyi :P) Because I think Elims have more reason than not to kill villagers over elims. much safer for them to leave the main vote for the Elims and NK people that they think are either on their team or are a village threat.

Right, he's basically confirmed elim. Specifically, he's basically confirmed Cett. If he's not a top exe candidate, Straff will almost certainly attack him. Because their literal Mistborn told them to. They might not attack him if, for example, he's only a vote or two behind any other exe targets. But at this point, exeing him would be a waste because he's gonna die anyway. This way, we know exactly who one of the two teams is going to attack, and we are free to discuss other people.

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah I kind of think you and Quinn are both Straff, Quinn for that reason- pushing hard to kill me so that she doesn't have to vote to do so. But each of you pointing these things out about the other just confuses me :P.

*blink* what???? I did vote you! Last cycle! And this cycle! And I only removed my vote from you after you asked us all to not vote you and let you get NKd instead. Uh-uh, I can believe your arguments on Illwei but saying I'm trying to avoid voting you is grasping at straws.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Wait Devo is in the game now?

EDIT: oh, yeah they are. lmao. hi!

I am in the game. I read all the posts from the first two cycles but hadn't been trying to figure out alignments so the only thing I'm going on is Striker's last post. Would you kill Matrim even if we exed you? @Matrim's Dice, would you kill Illwei if we exed you?

[---]

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Right, he's basically confirmed elim. Specifically, he's basically confirmed Cett. If he's not a top exe candidate, Straff will almost certainly attack him. Because their literal Mistborn told them to.

Their mistborn is dead, and leaving him alive means that the village will waste a cycle on that, while they can make sure to kill off villagers. I can see a Straff!Quinn here because I don't know why anyone would want to NK Matrim?

Again. if the Elims NK mat then they don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. if they don't then they 1) potentially confirm a teammate, 2) Potentially kill off someone (whoever it is, it's good for them) and 3) Make sure the Village wastes another cycle, killing someone confirmed not them.

EDIT:

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Would you kill Matrim even if we exed you?

Straff!Illwei wouldn't kill Matrim, as outlined in above post??? I don't understand why the Elims would?

Edited March 20, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

*blink* what???? I did vote you! Last cycle! And this cycle! And I only removed my vote from you after you asked us all to not vote you and let you get NKd instead. Uh-uh, I can believe your arguments on Illwei but saying I'm trying to avoid voting you is grasping at straws.

>> Sorry that's my bad terminology

'Kill' was referring to the exe and 'vote' was referring to the Straff kill.

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I am in the game. I read all the posts from the first two cycles but hadn't been trying to figure out alignments so the only thing I'm going on is Striker's last post. Would you kill Matrim even if we exed you? @Matrim's Dice, would you kill Illwei if we exed you?

I have no ability to kill Illwei or vote to do so :P.

[---]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

'Kill' was referring to the exe and 'vote' was referring to the Straff kill.

That's kinda hm??? More points to E!Mat Imo.

but if people still don't understand me...I don't know how else to explain it.

The Elims want as much control as possible, and that's almost impossible without offering up someone for the vote that is basically confirmed Elim. So if the Elims Didn't kill Matrim, then they would be confirmed hitting someone not of their own alignment, potentially hitting an elim from the other team, and they'd also be confirmed not losing one of their own to the lynch. so that's bad x2 for the Village. If they do kill Mat, then there's reason to think that 1) he might not die, and 2) they don't know who would die to the vote tomorrow, and it would potentially be one of their own.

Uhhhh so basically my thought is that anyone arguing for not-Matrim is an Elim, or a very confused villager. because the best plan here is to get the obvious kill out of the way so that we can get the info from the flip, and make sure we're open to killing other people tomorrow. because otherwise we're no further on from where we started info-wise, but the Elims were still moving forward. an Effective no-lynch but...well, worse :P.

[Quintessential she/her]

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Their mistborn is dead, and leaving him alive means that the village will waste a cycle on that, while they can make sure to kill off villagers. I can see a Straff!Quinn here because I don't know why anyone would want to NK Matrim?

BECAUSE HE"S (practically) CONFIRMED CETT. If Matrim isn't a top exe candidate, then Straff has every reason to NK him because they know he's Cett (or at least they know he's not Straff, since their kill on him went through last cycle) and given that he survived their kill from last cycle, he could very well be Cett Mistborn.

Look, here's the deal: speaking generally, the best thing for Straff to do right now is get Mat exed. They probably want him dead, and if they can get the village to kill him for them, that's a win for them. They can focus their kills on whomever else they want--including villagers, something which Mat almost certainly isn't. By exeing someone else instead of Mat, we will force Straff to eventually try to kill him--since one way or another, they know he's not one of them and if we're not gonna kill him, they have to do it to win. So by not exeing him, we're using up one of their elim kills. Whereas if we exe him, we're using up one of our exes that could be spent elsewhere.

(so basically, Illwei is currently saying exactly what I'd expect members of Straff to say in this situation)

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Again. if the Elims NK mat then they don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. if they don't then they 1) potentially confirm a teammate, 2) Potentially kill off someone (whoever it is, it's good for them) and 3) Make sure the Village wastes another cycle, killing someone confirmed not them.

All we have to do is all agree (or at least most of us agree) that since everyone knows Mat is Cett, Straff is going to have to kill him eventually. If we all publicly say that we're not gonna exe him, they have to kill him. It's literally in their win-con. yes, it's in the village win-con too, but we may as well let the enemies do the work for us. That way, we will never waste a cycle exeing him, and he'll die (eventually), and it'll be one less villager that Straff have the opportunity to NK.

13 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

>> Sorry that's my bad terminology

'Kill' was referring to the exe and 'vote' was referring to the Straff kill.

.... er. Yeah. That's... like exactly opposite standard terminology XD 

Also I see your point--I just realized that's exactly the argument I have against Illwei above : P but yeah anyway it didn't... the tempting thing at the beginning of the cycle was to vote the (mostly) confirmed elim, without stopping to think about it. After which you convinced me otherwise, evidently : P

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

That's kinda hm??? More points to E!Mat Imo.

but if people still don't understand me...I don't know how else to explain it.

The Elims want as much control as possible, and that's almost impossible without offering up someone for the vote that is basically confirmed Elim. So if the Elims Didn't kill Matrim, then they would be confirmed hitting someone not of their own alignment, potentially hitting an elim from the other team, and they'd also be confirmed not losing one of their own to the lynch. so that's bad x2 for the Village. If they do kill Mat, then there's reason to think that 1) he might not die, and 2) they don't know who would die to the vote tomorrow, and it would potentially be one of their own.

Uhhhh so basically my thought is that anyone arguing for not-Matrim is an Elim, or a very confused villager. because the best plan here is to get the obvious kill out of the way so that we can get the info from the flip, and make sure we're open to killing other people tomorrow. because otherwise we're no further on from where we started info-wise, but the Elims were still moving forward. an Effective no-lynch but...well, worse :P.

I've said this like five times already this game and I'll say it again:

There are two elim teams.

If Straff doesn't attack Mat this cycle, then yes, they will (as always) be guaranteed to attack someone not of their own alignment--but that's also true of Mat because their attack on him worked last cycle, ergo he's not of their alignment.

And yes, if Straff attacks someone other than Mat this cycle, they could potentially hit someone on the other elim team--but if they attack Mat this cycle, they will definitely hit someone from the other elim team. So I don't see what your point is here? In both of these cases, the thing they would gain from not attacking Mat is also a thing they would gain from attacking Mat?

***Not attacking Mat does not guarantee that Straff will not lose one of their own to the exe! I have literally no idea what you're thinking here! The elims who would attack Mat would be Straff, as Mat is already proven not Straff. If we exe Mat, then yeah Straff won't lose anyone from their team. But that's bad for us, not good, so I don't see what your point is. If Straff doesn't kill Mat, but we sane people successfully convince everyone else not to vote Mat either, then we're just as likely to exe someone from Straff as we would be if Mat was actually attacked.

Basically, to this third point, Straff not attacking Mat does not help them avoid the exe in and of itself.

So, that's... all of your points against exeing Mat debunked? yeah, that's all of 'em.  

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hey everyone!

Remember that time in the last MR when my eye went all red and I had to drop out?

Yeah.

The other eye wanted a turn.

I'm planning on staying in the game for now, but there's a high likelihood I'll won't be posting nearly as frequently... however frequently that was. It wasn't very. I'll let you know if that changes for the better/worse.

[Mat he/him]

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

That's kinda hm??? More points to E!Mat Imo

How so? :P. The exe kills me and elims vote for their kill. That’s... common knowledge.

Quinn said the rest. Strange that she’s defending me now, but it’s right and I’ll take it :P.

Best wishes, Ash!  

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Quinn said the rest. Strange that she’s defending me now, but it’s right and I’ll take it :P.

Again: not defending you--I just don't think it's worth our time to attack you either. Straff should take care of that for us eventually, whether you're actually Cett or not  

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Quintessential said:

Again: not defending you--I just don't think it's worth our time to attack you either. Straff should take care of that for us eventually, whether you're actually Cett or not  

Fair enough. Since my game probably starts Wednesday the death could be worse timed  Though of course I’d love to stay alive...

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Fair enough. Since my game probably starts Wednesday the death could be worse timed  Though of course I’d love to stay alive...

Wouldn't we all... but yeah, idk if I'd have wanted to run a game and play a game (especially a game like this) at the same time  

Sidenote: I didn't think I was going to like playing multiball, but I've been pleasantly surprised--this is actually a lot of fun  

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

Wouldn't we all... but yeah, idk if I'd have wanted to run a game and play a game (especially a game like this) at the same time  

Sidenote: I didn't think I was going to like playing multiball, but I've been pleasantly surprised--this is actually a lot of fun  

You could say it was a bold move on my part xD But I wasn't going to miss this game.

 

[---]

11 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

So, that's... all of your points against exeing Mat debunked? yeah, that's all of 'em.  

Sure, let's go through this why don't we. fine.

I don't want to. I don't have the energy for this. But since literally no one else here will engage, I will.

Tell me if I'm misinterpreting your points or something.

--

Point 1: They don't need to follow their mistborn's decisions, the Mistborn isn't a dictator, and the mistborn might not have the best plan.

Quinn's Rebuttal: The Elims still want to kill Mat because he's confirmed Cett, and they're going to have to kill him to win.

Illwei's Rebuttal: It doesn't matter who they know isn't them. They can't kill their teammates. which means what? Everyone they kill will be either Cett or Village. It shouldn't matter to them which, because they both have mistborns, they both need to be dead for Straff to win. So leaving an almost confirmed Cett alive means that the village has to kill them at some point to win.

--

Point 2: Killing him doesn't actually help them as much as you think it does

Quinn's Rebuttal: They have to kill him at some point to win.

Illwei's Rebuttal: Well guess what, yeah, like you said. So do we? Mat is basically a confirmed Elim because there is no reason for Striker to lie at the end there, when, like someone said, Striker lying would potentially hit a teammate. the point remains that yes. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KILL MATRIM AT ONE POINT OR ANOTHER. What quinn is arguing here is to LEAVE AN ALMOST CONFIRMED ELIM ALIVE UNTIL THE END OF THE GAME. I don't care about the intentions, or what you think will happen right now. Quinn is ACTIVELY ARGUING THAT WE SHOULD LEAVE MATRIM, ALMOST CONFIRMED ELIM MISTBORN, ALIVE. She's not saying that we should kill him next cycle if he isn't NK'd, she's saying that we should ACTIVELY NOT KILL HIM. This doesn't help village at all.

Do we hit an almost confirmed elim? or do we take some more shots in the dark, hit some more villagers, and leave him alive? ???

26 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

***Not attacking Mat does not guarantee that Straff will not lose one of their own to the exe! I have literally no idea what you're thinking here! The elims who would attack Mat would be Straff, as Mat is already proven not Straff. If we exe Mat, then yeah Straff won't lose anyone from their team. But that's bad for us, not good, so I don't see what your point is.

Are you Cett? because WHAT DO YOU MEAN?

IT DOESN'T MATTER TO US TO KEEP THE ELIM TEAMS EVEN. And the fact that you're operating under the assumption that it does, makes it sound like you're an Elim.

The Elims who might attack Mat would be straff, yes. But attacking Mat doesn't help them so they wouldn't. And you're somehow putting it onto me that I am now evil, for wanting to kill mat?

If "Not attacking Mat does not guarantee that Straff will not lose one of their own to the exe!" then that goes back to my other point, which is that you are arguing to leave mat alive indefinitely. which is NOT HELPFUL AT ALL. We're not just going to go "well, that's an Elim!" and then KILL OTHER PEOPLE. when

1) Mat might not be an Elim so we might be making faulty assumptions, leading us to kill other villagers
2) Mat might be an Elim, and a mistborn at that, which means leaving him alive, if so, isn't good for the village, and meanwhile we will probably be killing other villagers because there really isn't a lot to go on in this game.

I'm done arguing.

someone else? @Liranil? @Whysper? @Gears?

Anythoughts?

Or other less-analyz-y people? wanna comment on things? instead of having me and Quinn battle this out.

I get that, people might find it hard to read these, and I'm sorry for that, but when no one else talks this is what it's going to be, and I can't change that because I'm not going to turn to having zero conversation instead.

[Mat he/him]

*raises hand* To end the thunderdome :P.

If I survive the Straff kill (or Straff doesn't kill me for... some reason) I will very much be down for being killed. It'll need to happen eventually and will hopefully clear something up. I don't think Quinn is saying I should survive the whole game, just that Straff should be the one to kill me so that we can still utilize the exe, which I fully agree with.

Edited March 20, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

*raises hand* To end the thunderdome :P.

If I survive the Straff kill (or Straff doesn't kill me for... some reason) I will very much be down for being killed. It'll need to happen eventually and will hopefully clear something up. I don't think Quinn is saying I should survive the whole game, just that Straff should be the one to kill me so that we can still utilize the exe, which I fully agree with.

I quoted the bit in Quinn's post, because I thought the same, until she said

49 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

If Straff doesn't kill Mat, but we sane people successfully convince everyone else not to vote Mat either, then we're just as likely to exe someone from Straff as we would be if Mat was actually attacked.

Quinn doesn't want to kill mat, At all.

[Biplet she/her]

I think it's definitely a good idea to vote Mat out in either this cycle or the next. If we don't this cycle, we leave it to the NK, and the elims may decide not to do it because hey, look, Mat is a discussion black hole. Elims, or at the very least Straff, want that. I'm advocating this cycle. I can't in good conscience leave a nearly confirmed elim alive.

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

but when no one else talks this is what it's going to be, and I can't change that because I'm not going to turn to having zero conversation instead.

I think it's fair to point out that the cycle has only been up for a few hours, and some people may be busy, asleep, or just haven't seen it yet. More discussion will come as the cycle goes on.

Maybe we should take a step back. Things seem to be getting pretty heated. I will say I have a slightly difficult time interpreting tone over text, so if I am assuming anger where there is none, forgive me.

Mat

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Quinn doesn't want to kill mat, At all.

Well then.

That's odd. Not gonna lie. 

[---]

6 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Maybe we should take a step back. Things seem to be getting pretty heated. I will say I have a slightly difficult time interpreting tone over text, so if I am assuming anger where there is none, forgive me.

I don't mean to appear angry or whatnot aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

I do think I'm getting a little frustrated because Quinn seems to be arguing that Not The Optimal Strategy is the Optimal Strategy and is also pushing that I am an Elim because I am pushing the Optimal Strategy.

If people really want to leave Mat alive today I am amenable to voting Quinn because I can't see how this comes from Town.

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Well then.

That's odd. Not gonna lie. 

Yes. Yes it is.

Edited March 20, 2021 by Illwei

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Or other less-analyz-y people? wanna comment on things? instead of having me and Quinn battle this out.

It's mostly just a game of chicken at this point. It's not worthwhile to exe Matrim if Straff is going to kill him, and Straff won't kill him so long as they expect Matrim to get exed. Matrim needs to die at some point but nobody especially wants to kill him. If we leave Cett!Matrim alive for too long, he might be able to muster up the votes to save himself. There's not really a good solution here except hoping somebody folds before we get to that point. It's not bad to vote Matrim though, since that should still help.

[Biplet she/her]

Me, coming into the thread: everyone doing okay? We feeling alright? Want some bread? Should I heat up some bagel bites?

Edited March 20, 2021 by Biplet
too many spaces, methinks

[Quintessential she/her]

@Illwei I'm realizing I didn't make it super clear why I think Straff will attack Mat:

Straff is not in a good position right now. It's C3 and their Mistborn is already dead. They have no idea who each other are, and if they're not careful they might turn on each other in the thread by accident. They're at a distinct disadvantage compared to both other teams.

And Mat appears to be the Cett Mistborn. I don't have any particular interest in keeping Cett and Straff even--I mean, I want them both equally dead in the end but I don't care how lopsided it gets along the way there--but Straff probably wants to even things up between the two, or risk falling more easily. The easy way to do that in this case is to kill the person who appears to be the Cett Mistborn. And if Mat is Cett Thug instead, oh well, at least Straff isn't the only elim team to have lost a player. Basically, they have potentially more to gain from killing Mat or getting him killed than from ignoring him. I am arguing that we should force them to kill him themselves, instead of doing it for them and letting them target someone else who might end up being a villager. 

Two of the three deaths this cycle (at least) could involve the death of a villager. The Cett one almost certainly will, unless by some miracle they hit one of the two or three remaining Straff. If we decide to exe Mat, we can guarantee that the exe won't kill a villager, but that also means that Straff will target someone else--and they're no more likely to hit another elim than Cett is (since they won't target Mat in this scenario). So in that case, we have one non-villager death and two probable-villager deaths. Of course, if we choose not to exe Mat, I'm guessing Straff will target Mat to even things up between them and Cett (in addition to whatever reason they had for killing him last cycle). In that case, the Straff kill won't target a villager, and the exe might. Which sounds bad, until you realize that in the former case, the villagers have no control over either probable-villager death, and in the latter case, we do have control. We can make sure that if a villager dies, at least it either gives us information or resolves a major dispute that would otherwise suck up discussion time, and we have a higher chance of exeing an elim than Straff has of killing one, because we don't care which team that elim comes from.

Obviously it's also possible that Straff won't target Mat--to cause confusion, to try to eat up the next cycle's exe, or what have you. But keep in mind, at least one of them wanted to kill him already, and now that he's survived an attack and been proven Cett, it's not unlikely that he's the Cett Mistborn, which only gives them more of an incentive to attack him. So it's a gamble, but I don't think it's all that risky of one. Besides, I suppose if he survives this cycle you can always override me, and next cycle's exe will be guaranteed to hit an elim. 

So, that's my general thought process. Having stepped away for a bit and looked back I can see where you're coming from--but I still think we should exe someone else this cycle. 

56 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I do think I'm getting a little frustrated because Quinn seems to be arguing that Not The Optimal Strategy is the Optimal Strategy and is also pushing that I am an Elim because I am pushing the Optimal Strategy.

*cough* also remember in QF51 how I argued that we should play the higher-risk strategy by not exeing Reading and asking him not to shoot anyone, but nobody listened to me, and if you had we might not have lost? : P I'm not saying this is necessarily like that... but it kind of is though

 

[---]

I saw you say in there "I see where you're coming from", so I'm going to take that and stop arguing.

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

I'm not saying this is necessarily like that..

it isn't, and killing reading as village would have been fine if he hadn't given in to paranoia and had killed TJ, like the thread was telling him to