dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Dannex said: WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT I figured it out. The solution lies in the mechanics of the Grey Ajah. They don’t remove a vote from a person, they remove a person’s vote. Look at the end of last cycle! Votes were flying around like crazy! People changing votes left and right. The Greys have no control on who their target votes, and votes were changing like crazy all the way up to the end of the cycle. One even happened 30 seconds after the cycle technically ended. Boom. Solution. Remove your votes please. @Gears @Archer, I believe you two are still voting me. Was this not enough to convince you? Could you elaborate on why you’re still voting me if I’ve managed to explain away the removed vote thing? Do you think my explanation wasn’t good enough? A response would be nice.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 If the Grey Ajah wanted to save Dannex specifically, Ash who placed his vote early and Lotus who definitely wasn't going to switch her vote off their main competition would be good choices. An elim Grey Ajah might as well use their ability, since it's unlikely any given player will be scanned by a Blue Ajah and being seen targeting someone who doesn't die isn't automatically incriminating. I don't see why the elims couldn't have a Brown Ajah though. There's too many unknowns about the distribution to say that's too powerful.
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: There's too many unknowns about the distribution to say that's too powerful. Unknowns like.....whether we have vanillas or not? If only someone had proposed a plan to fill in that gap in our knowledge...
Mat he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: For one thing, Matrim, Dannex, and Gears are in their own groups because I can't find any reason to say they wouldn't want to kill Connie I wouldn't want to kill a suspicion of mine, there's a reason for you. (No, I'm now realizing your entire point is that I would. Never mind, you might be right ) Generally I wouldn't kill a suspicion of mine. Though if I could get away with voting on the person I was WGGing I'd totally want to do that, but there's always the barrier of I might not think of it 25 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Mat is definitely on the Chaotic spectrum... I have never heard that before Windrunner/Edgedancer/Skybreaker, that's me! I think I'm Lawful Good, going by the actual spectrum, though in SE I don't do that as much Edit: I think it's a WGG because I don't see anyone killing village!Connie in the situation she was in. Your difficulty in analyzing the kill should at least let you understand that (@Ashbringer) Edited January 16, 2021 by Matrim's Dice
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Ooooo, we’re getting alignment assessments? Pick me! Pick me!
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Breaker said: Ooooo, we’re getting alignment assessments? Pick me! Pick me! Um, chaotic good maybe?
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Dannex said: Um, chaotic good maybe? He knows too much. Shrek him.
Ashbringer he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Windrunner/Edgedancer/Skybreaker, that's me! I think I'm Lawful Good, going by the actual spectrum, though in SE I don't do that as much Look me in the eye and tell me Skybreakers are Lawful Good.
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Look me in the eye and tell me Skybreakers are Lawful Good. I mean, ideally they would be, but Nale’s Skybreakers? Lawful Evil so hard.
Mat he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Look me in the eye and tell me Skybreakers are Lawful Good. See, I'm 75% WR, 74% ED, and like 65% SB so it works just fine. But also what Dannex said
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Lotus said: Which part? Any of it ;-; Was going to ad 49 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: (And remember, I don't know PMs... I know Lotus isn't as active as Illwei/Quinn but I still feel like she's more similar to you than, say, Matrim.) :/// 49 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Because I've been Elim with Books before. Granted, that was their first game, but they definitely didn't do too much with the Elim kill that I can remember. And from seeing them play I don't think most of that's changed. Right but if you're looking at it on the basis of "Connie was killed for past behavior," then Striker doesn't fir that at all, having not ever played with Connie before?? 49 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Gears has been playing mostly regularly for a while, as has Connie. So while I don't know how well the two get along, I can guaruntee that Gears knows Connie better than, say, Striker (and vice versa, Connie knows Gears better than Striker). And again, it's less that Gears would kill Connie over anyone else, ever, than Gears would consider killing Connie given the present scenario. Of course he knows Connie better than Striker, but with this reasoning you can say that for Matrim, for Quinn, but you use that reasoning for gears??? 49 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Also, this is much harder for Connie than Araris. Araris had a reputation for getting fear-killed, a reputation a lot of the newer players didn't know about. Connie doesn't have that. Yeah I know, which is why this kinda analysis gets us nowhere with the points you're looking at IMO. if there's anything that Connie specifically would have been killed for, it would have been an interaction in thread- something you never touched on the details of, because you're looking at the general. I don't wanna invalidate your analysis efforts or whatnot, I just feel like Quinn asked you to look at this, and, being more self-aware you didn't want to say no. Looking at the general with players like Araris works because they're a (...low profile?) high profile player, and you can bet that people have played with them and know their Meta. A lot of players here are either New, Newer, or new to eachother. ... Perhaps Connie was attacked because she was a player people would know? Okay... I was going to say something related to the Araris thing. Araris was killed because Quinn was scared of him (from what she's told me :eyes) and that makes sense, her having just played multiple games with him where he was an Elim and then won. This can't be applied at all with Connie. Now if someone had killed Striker then that would be easier to talk about. You could probably rule out people like Kings_way, Quinn, Connie, Lotus, Books, Liranil- well, you get the point. (Wouldn't rule out Breaker, James, or Archer though in that situation :P). The point is it might be easier to rule out those people. I was going to talk more here but Instead I'm not and I'm gonna do other things. Heres we's gots the people. these are the people. I'm going to pretend that they're all village for the sake of this. great plan yesyes. I will talk through my thinking and see where that ends up. probably nowhere helpful. somewhat ties in to last point but hopefully in a better way. Mat - Gears - Dies early a lot (wearing off, relevant anymore?) Ash - Breaker - Chaos Quinn - [semi] potentially easily pocketed (relevant only depending on her bonds) Lotus - Inactive, Potential ML Archer - Liranil - Potential Protect Reading - Potential ML Striker - (Somewhat) Returning, Not well known (within the game) Order - New player James - New player Burnt - (Somewhat) Returning, Not well known (within the game) Danex - Potential ML Books - Devo - Kings Way - Inactive Connie - Illwei - Potential ML, Potential Protect Okay this didn't help me explain my thinking :P. Going for someone like Connie is a good target imo if they are worried about someone tracing it back to "who knows [Kill target]". I've started rambling and don't be making much sense :P. 29 minutes ago, Breaker said: Ooooo, we’re getting alignment assessments? Pick me! Pick me! You don't feel like a chaotic good to me :/. 15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Look me in the eye and tell me Skybreakers are Lawful Good. Skybreakers are Lawful Lawful and no one can tell me otherwise :P. But also I wouldn't describe Mat with "chaotic" :P. if you read him consistently chaotic then that's not true chaos, imo :P. EDIT: 30 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Edit: I think it's a WGG because I don't see anyone killing village!Connie in the situation she was in. Your difficulty in analyzing the kill should at least let you understand that (@Ashbringer) You coulda argue that the Elims wouldn't wanna kill connie bc she's ML bait, but I'd argue back that that has happened in every game so far, and the village never goes through with it. Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei
Mat he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Illwei said: her having just played multiple games with him where he was an Elim and then won Not that winning as an elim has proven to be that hard lately or anything :/ 3 minutes ago, Illwei said: Connie - Illwei - Potential ML, Potential Protect Okay this didn't help me explain my thinking :P. Going for someone like Connie is a good target imo if they are worried about someone tracing it back to "who knows [Kill target]". So you have potential ML as an option... my entire argument for WGG is that Connie very much fits the potential ML category, much better than you did. 4 minutes ago, Illwei said: But also I wouldn't describe Mat with "chaotic" :P. if you read him consistently chaotic then that's not true chaos, imo :P. I wouldn't describe myself as chaotic either *shrug* -- Ninja'd with the edit: Quote You coulda argue that the Elims wouldn't wanna kill connie bc she's ML bait, but I'd argue back that that has happened in every game so far, and the village never goes through with it. Which is fair. But it also has happened in every game so far, why would it stop now? :P.
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: So you have potential ML as an option... my entire argument for WGG is that Connie very much fits the potential ML category, much better than you did. What's ML?
Ashbringer he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Illwei said: Right but if you're looking at it on the basis of "Connie was killed for past behavior," then Striker doesn't fir that at all, having not ever played with Connie before?? ... yes? Which is why I don’t think Striker would decide to kill Connie based on anything but random chance? That is my point? I didn’t really get a chance to look at the last thread for this, besides the fact Connie seemed quieter than usual. But if I did, then it becomes much more my reasoning than empirical reasoning. And for D1 I like to be empirical when possible. Still want to know why you want Lotus dead...
Mat he/him Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Breaker said: What's ML? Misexe. But with the other word *cough* or did I mean Misshrek?
+Lotus she/her Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 1 minute ago, Breaker said: What's ML? Edit: what Mat said Edited January 16, 2021 by Lotus
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Misshrek? P o c k e t e d
Condensation she/her Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Ashbringer said: This is going to be a little less empirical than my MR47 just because Connie doesn't have the same... uh... reputation that Araris has. That and they're still alive to yell at me. But Connie is usually a talkative person, but hasn't been so talkative this game. That's as far as I can get without looking at Connie specifically, and is probably where I would be comfortable voting because it's also as far as I can get off... purely non-gut instincts. Connie is a newer player than Araris is, and I don't think she's died early all that often. She also tends to post a lot (and a lot of it being more fluff-y than not), but hasn't so much this game that I can see. She tends to be more on the PM-y side as well, claiming fairly easily and building trust with people. She also hasn't been an Elim from what I can remember, or at least isn't an experienced one. I think this is a more reasonable group. Quinn, Lotus, and Illwei all sort of have the same methods as Connie, where they do a lot of fluff-posts along with a lot of PMing. I could see any of them trying to limit that niche. More Quinn/Illwei than Lotus. Devotary I could see connecting that a normally-talkative (and fairly good rally-er) player is trying to build up to speed and decide to kill them. Burnt I feel could fit in either the above catagories, but was also less active, so it evens out. Gears and Breaker... there's not really a question that they have some communications. This is odd for Gears, although him trying to be chaotic is acceptable. I could also see Gears just killing Connie as a player who knows them really well. Matrim voted for Connie before the Liranil-Lotus-Dannex trio popped up and recently voted again. Plus they more fit the profile. I don't know if anyone has ever bussed a WGG before, but I would not put it past Mat to be the first. What? I don't have a reputation? I haven't been as talkative because I haven't been able to be on the computer as much. The way my school works for three weeks in January is... weird, to say the least. If you doubt me, you can ask Mist and Vapor or look up Winterim for Karl G. Maeser Preparatory Academy. And I don't mind telling you guys where I go to school because I've said it before. I've gotten off really close two, maybe three times out of my six games. This being the sixth. I generally get a couple of votes early and then it dies down. I really like PMs. I've also never been an elim, but I've assisted Mist and Vapor(mostly Mist) with their elim strategies/suspicion. Yeah, I could see that. Quinn, Illwei, and Lotus being like me. Gears and I know each other... passably well. Certainly not as well as someone who RPs with me, like Mat, or someone I've spent a lot of time PMing, like Quinn. But I don't especially suspect either of those, which puts me back at square one. Although... maybe you shouldn't trust my instincts when it comes to Mat.
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Which is fair. But it also has happened in every game so far, why would it stop now? :P. Eh the point with that is that Connie just isn't usually ... *ahem* shreked, Although almost always having been suspected a lot. Hold on whaddo I get if I try doin' wat ash did huh. - Mat, Gears, Ash, Breaker, Quinn, Lotus, Archer, Liranil, Striker, Order, James, Burnt, Danex, Books, Devo, Kings Way, Connie, Illwei Oki here be the list of peeps coolio. unlike ash i don wanna think it was a wgg. now imma remove me and connie because we're frens. and not lira. - Mat, Gears, Ash, Breaker, Quinn, Lotus, Archer, Striker, Order, James, Burnt, Danex, Books, Devo, Kings Way Okay now imma remove people who don' know 'er because if I was a returning player and i saw a new name i wouldn't wanna kill them ;-;. and then also devo because. - Mat, Gears, Ash, Breaker, Quinn, Lotus, Archer, Order, James, Danex, Books, Kings Way Next come da newer players who donno n-e 1 and then would proooobabwy go fo someon' else maybwe" - Mat, Gears, Ash, Quinn, Lotus, James, Danex, Books Yeah I can't do this because there are way to many possibilities. And I think that someone who killed Connie either did it because of something she said in thread, or because they thought she was a safe kill in terms of their identities :P. Reads: Village: James, Danex, Books, Connie, Liranil The lotus thing: Ash, it was 100% a gutread. I didn't want to Kill Danex, Reading, Liranil after she claimed. the other people were...gears? Archer? neither of which I really wanted to kill. I did say this yesterday :P. Someone post analysis so I can sheep you please ;-; I don't have the energy ;-; I lost my thoughts like 10 times in this EDIT: Spoiler Did...beaker just give me an upvote for using "shrek", huh? Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei 1
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 I’m just waiting for gears and archer to reply to my call-out. Gears was online after I posted it, so the fact that he hasn’t replied makes me mildly suspicious. Let’s add some incentive for a response. Gears. Please respond to this.
Gears Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, Dannex said: @Gears @Archer, I believe you two are still voting me. Was this not enough to convince you? Could you elaborate on why you’re still voting me if I’ve managed to explain away the removed vote thing? Do you think my explanation wasn’t good enough? A response would be nice. I suspect you for the Liranil vote. Not for this. I just reserved my vote until further discussion. It seemed quite suspect. Also, I don't appreciate how you're rushing me. Organizing these RP posts takes time. @Liranil, I think you should kill Condensation. Vil!Condensation just doesn't make sense. Why wouldn't the elims just kill a generally trusted person? Why would they kill Condensation, who had taken flak from a generally trusted person? They could have done a mis-X later and cast shade on Mat. Either the elims are incompetent, or Condensation is evil. The only reason to kill Lotus is because they survived and they've said nothing, which is frankly normal. Roko and Kanaira stood face to face in a side hall, arguing vehemently about what should be done about Danex. It argued that Danex's vote on Liranil was simply too suspect, but Kanaira thought that the Danex lynch was too opportune, mixed with a spark of pity for Danex's plight. Her internal sense of justice always went berserk when confronted with pitiable people, letting logic fall by the wayside in favour of protecting those who looked sad. Of course, appearances could be deceiving, but Kanaira just couldn't see it. "Just listen to me," Roko said, barely suppressing a twinge of bitterness. "I'm your Warder. It's my job to protect you. Why won't you let me protect you?" "It seems we will not come to an accord through our rhetoric," Kanaira replied. "There's only one way to settle this." They both held up a fist and brought it down. "Rock, paper..." 1
Guest Breaker Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) "Scissors!" Kanaira stares at Roko's outstretched hand, bearing the symbol they had both just spoken allowed. Scissors. Which lost to her rock. "Ha!" Kanaira can't help but show her initial excitement. "We're not voting for Dannex. Not yet. We shall watch." Roko sighs. It sounds somewhere between a grunt and a grate. "Dannex's vote for Liranil was suspect. He didn't have any reasoning, besides not trusting a claim and a logical fallacy. But you will come to see this." As she walks off, Kanaira sniffs. She doesn't especially care about Dannex; he was under so much pressure, he was going down, whether she tried to save him or end him. What was important was reminding Roko of who the senior partner in their relationship was. Men. Always so controlling. Edit: Formatting Edited January 16, 2021 by Breaker
Illwei Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Gears said: They could have done a mis-X later and cast shade on Mat. Mat Edited January 16, 2021 by Illwei
Gears Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) Danex. Stupid roshambo. I always lose to Kai in Rock-Paper-Scissors. Bubbles can testify. Stupid 剪刀石頭布。I rue this day and many others. EDIT Just now, Illwei said: Mat How dare you ninja me and ruin this chain of Kai-Gears banter! Curse the Coming of the Second Plague! Edited January 16, 2021 by Gears
dannnex male Posted January 16, 2021 Posted January 16, 2021 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Gears said: I suspect you for the Liranil vote. Not for this. I just reserved my vote until further discussion. It seemed quite suspect. Also, I don't appreciate how you're rushing me. Organizing these RP posts takes time. 22 minutes ago, Gears said: [green]Danex I mean, I’m confused, but I won’t complain. Gears. Edited January 16, 2021 by Dannex
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