[RoW and Mistborn Secret History spoilers] What Hoid needs to do

[Ixthos Luke/Luke]

Wit was outwitted. Wit was outmanoeuvred. Wit was outplayed. The mastermind who hid from shards on their own worlds - though Endowment apparently says otherwise - was defeated. Possibly.

Possibly ...

He might have planned for this, might have made a backup, might have pulled on other Odium, but it looks like Odium actually won. Wit is used to being smarter than Odium, and was shocked, or seemed so, when Odium proved more subtle due to the vessel of the shard. But here is where we need to think.

 

What does Hoid have to do?

He has to do what Kelsier did.

 

Kelsier was played for a fool by Ruin, but Kelsier and his crew won in the end. How?

What do Kelsier and Hoid have in common?

They are tricksters.

 

I don't think they are gods, whatever they or those around them like the Church of the Survivor or the Horneaters think. They and the shards aren't gods. But they fit many myths versions of them.

They aren't stronger than the shards. They aren't able to plan as far ahead, or see the possible ways of the future. But they fit a very specific mould, both of them.

 

They are tricksters.

Before his death Kelsier was a master thief, and after his death Kelsier tricked Preservation, tricked the Ire, deceived Ruin, and then went on further in hiding the Bands of Mourning. Hoid likewise has shown his trickster role and skills.

 

They aren't stronger, smarter, or more wise than the shards. But they are more cunning. They don't have to be stronger, smarter, wiser - they just have to know how to outplay them. And Hoid still has the option to do that.

 

How can Hoid reclaim his role? By being a trickster again. And maybe he already has. What did he really want to achieve with Odium, why go out into the open? And why did he say a meeting with Odium, when he seems to think of the shard more as Rayse?

 

And, perhaps, with Fortune, Wit already knew enough about what was going to happen to make preparations, and to make sure he even tricked himself - what better trick could he have pulled off than to convince himself - perhaps by hiding his own memories of what he suspected would happen - to feeling and reacting the way he did?

 

So ... who really won?

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

I love this analysis. Hoid and Kell are the Cosmere tricksters, which probably plays a role in why they hate each other so much.  But they’re different kinds.
 

Kelsier is the mythic trickster. He’s Coyote and Loki and Prometheus. SH reads a lot like a Trickster myth to me, and Kell has a lot of the connections common to mythic tricksters: life and death, defiance of the gods, (symbolic) fire, etc. The association with Mists could be argued as the water connection. And as the Sovereign he brought knowledge of the metallic arts (civilization) to the South Scadrians. (Tricksters are often connected to life, death, Fire, water, defiance of authority/gods, and civilization.)

We don’t know Hoid’s connections, but I’d argue that Hoid isn’t the mythic trickster. He’s the folk hero. He’s any of a dozen trickster folk heroes. He’s also Puck, who bears more in common with those than the mythic ones.

Kell is the one with the big splashes that soon turned into legends and myths. Hoid is the subtler one, taunting and teasing from the sidelines, causing his enemies to fool themselves. He inspires the stories which, in time, become myths of their own. Kell will slight the gods to their faces. Hoid will have them utterly confused as to whether or not they’ve been insulted. Kell will make fools of the gods; Hoid will have them make fools of themselves.

Oh, and going by myth, Kell will likely end up imprisoned in a great deal of pain. Or dead. Most mythic tricksters do end up that way. Unless the Well counts, in which case he’s already dealt with that. But I don’t think so.

Hoid will probably be fine, as long as he plays his cards right. Folk tricksters often get into trouble, but they usually get out of it - or suffer less than the mythic one. Possibly because their trickery isn’t quite as ‘spectacular.’

[Ixthos Luke/Luke]

@Kingsdaughter613 I like your take on the difference between the two, and the possible fates of them both :-)

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

14 minutes ago, Ixthos said:

@Kingsdaughter613 I like your take on the difference between the two, and the possible fates of them both :-)

Should be noted that Mythic tricksters tend to escape in the end, for good or for ill. So I could see Kell getting trapped between realms at the end of Era 3, and a subplot of Era 4 involves releasing him.

[Serack he/him]

Hmmm,

For added context, remember just what Hoid was talking about/doing immediately before the encounter with Todium.  He was demonstrating misdirection tricks.  Heck, the name of the epilogue is "Dirty Tricks"

Which for me, really brings it home that he was probably setting up a misdirection trick in that scene, and accomplished it.  Hoid has been at this a LOT longer.

When I read the scene, and Hoid struggled to find the correct tune to whistle thinking, "Something was fiddling with his perfect pitch."  It really bothered me that Hoid seemed to be taking this in stride rather than freaking out.  Now, I suspect it was because he knew and was just playing Todium/the reader.

[Ixthos Luke/Luke]

@Serack One can but hope! The one thing we can be certain of is that Wit has lasted a long time playing the shards, or working without them knowing. There is a lot of possible clues that could allow him to discover he was manipulated, and I'm hoping he even tricked himself, hence the feeling of terror.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

5 minutes ago, Serack said:

Hmmm,

For added context, remember just what Hoid was talking about/doing immediately before the encounter with Todium.  He was demonstrating misdirection tricks.  Heck, the name of the epilogue is "Dirty Tricks"

Which for me, really brings it home that he was probably setting up a misdirection trick in that scene, and accomplished it.  Hoid has been at this a LOT longer.

When I read the scene, and Hoid struggled to find the correct tune to whistle thinking, "Something was fiddling with his perfect pitch."  It really bothered me that Hoid seemed to be taking this in stride rather than freaking out.  Now, I suspect it was because he knew and was just playing Todium/the reader.

Oh, I think he was tricked. Tricksters often get tricked, especially folk ones. They just come back to trick the one who tricked them - and usually figure out they were tricked soon after it occurs. Quite a few folk trickster stories begin with the trickster being tricked.

Mythic heroes can end up tricked too, but that tends to be on a rather different scale with very different consequences.

[Koloss17 She/They]

What this theory doesn’t explain is why was wit truly terrified? That was what makes me not believe that wit won. He does have a bajilion indicators to show that his memories have been meddled with, though.

[Alatar he/him]

I think the Wells count, and more, Kellsier has tricked Death itself, as mythic tricksters often do (I can't remember the names but I'm thinking more on the slavic folktales, like those compilated by Afanasiev, also I think the inspiration for the Deathly Hallows from Harry Potter).

When I first read the book, it seemed to me that Hoid was tricksted but the more I think of it I agree with @Serack , he's let himself been tricked. Technically, he was tricked, but he knew something was going to happen and he knows something happened. If just one question from Taravangian made him realise it wasn't Rayse, the obvious and repetitive hints (his spren and coins are not where he remembers them, the perfect pitch) should make him pause for sure, but he doesn't want Odium to know that he knows. Other thing is that he has some backup or he knows exactly what happened (I guess he doesn't) but he knows something happened which wasn't meant to.

And, going back to the trickster archtypes, I think both Kell and Hoid have already stablished themselves as those archtypes and live the tales that lead them there, Kell with the Wells and the cheating Death, and Hoid with the story in Liar of Partinel that some people know (I don't) and will be retold, as well as other appeareances. Just, we haven't been told his story yet.

In fact, I can imagine myself saying to Hoid (or Kell): "¿Do you know why you hate him so much? Because you're exactly the same" and, to his outrage, reply "That's exactly what HE said"

[Leuthie]

Hoid's mysterious Fortune ability sends him to places for reasons even he doesn't know. This time, it sent him to the Shattered Plains to meet with Odium, who he is now protected from due to the contract Odium signed with Dalinar. Hoid generally doesn't know why he is sent to a place and has to figure it out. In this case, he was lecturing on misdirection to a group of corrupted windspren. Why? Because that's what he does when he arrives at a place. He finds an audience and begins a story or a trick.

He is prepared for Rayse-Odium and what Rayse-Odium might do or be able to do with him. This, IMO, would include his Investiture Memories. Why would he not protect something so easily protected when going to meet a god?

It also appears that Odium simply found and removed his mistake in the conversation that clued Wit into him not being Rayse. Showing Hoid's loss of perfect pitch suggests more, but we have no clue how much Breath is required to store how much memory. It's also likely that Hoid holds just enough Investiture to have perfect pitch and losing any amount messes with it (which would become a great indicator if someone was messing with his memories).

I can only think that they were both trying to play each other and Hoid has been at it much longer than Mr. T has. Whatever happened, Hoid wasn't fully tricked by the brand new Vessel. Hoid sent his spren away. Hoid knows someone messed with his memories. Hoid has to know a Shard WOULD mess with his memories. Hoid let slip a very visible reaction to his internal thoughts just before Mr. T went in.

This was orchestrated to trick Odium, whether Rayse or not.

[+Aletus he/him]

Leuthie, I completely agree. Though it is still extremely dangerous for them all to be frolicking around (that's the official term for what they're doing) thinking it's still Rayse. 

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

7 hours ago, Alatar said:

I think the Wells count, and more, Kellsier has tricked Death itself, as mythic tricksters often do (I can't remember the names but I'm thinking more on the slavic folktales, like those compilated by Afanasiev, also I think the inspiration for the Deathly Hallows from Harry Potter).

When I first read the book, it seemed to me that Hoid was tricksted but the more I think of it I agree with @Serack , he's let himself been tricked. Technically, he was tricked, but he knew something was going to happen and he knows something happened. If just one question from Taravangian made him realise it wasn't Rayse, the obvious and repetitive hints (his spren and coins are not where he remembers them, the perfect pitch) should make him pause for sure, but he doesn't want Odium to know that he knows. Other thing is that he has some backup or he knows exactly what happened (I guess he doesn't) but he knows something happened which wasn't meant to.

And, going back to the trickster archtypes, I think both Kell and Hoid have already stablished themselves as those archtypes and live the tales that lead them there, Kell with the Wells and the cheating Death, and Hoid with the story in Liar of Partinel that some people know (I don't) and will be retold, as well as other appeareances. Just, we haven't been told his story yet.

In fact, I can imagine myself saying to Hoid (or Kell): "¿Do you know why you hate him so much? Because you're exactly the same" and, to his outrage, reply "That's exactly what HE said"

The Well could count, but I’m not so certain. The Well was more Kell tricking a god into making him immortal. If he ends up in a much worse situation at the end of Era 3, I wouldn’t be very surprised. His current path would indicate the possibility.

[Seloun]

We can always hypothesize stuff outside of the text to interpret almost anything in almost any way (we can always imagine a yet-unseen secret plan). The real question here is if this has any textual evidence to support it.

Unfortunately, the text seems to suggest Wit is very much trickable:

Quote

“I have failed you,” he said. “I thought I’d taken all necessary precautions, but I found a pen in my writing case that did not work.”

“So … what? Is this a trick, Wit?”

“One played on me, I’m afraid,” he said. “The pen was not a pen, but a creature designed to appear like a pen. A cremling, you’d call it, cleverly grown to the shape of something innocent.”

She grew cold, and stepped forward, her Plate clinking. “One of the Sleepless?”

He nodded.

“How much do you think it heard?” “I’m uncertain. I don’t know when it replaced my real pen, and I’m baffled how my protections—which are supposed to warn me of entities like this—were circumvented.”

Sanderson, Brandon. Rhythm of War (The Stormlight Archive) . Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition. 

Yes, you can argue that this is also somehow part of Wit's master plan - tricking Jasnah for some reason - but without some evidence in the text to back it up, the opposite theory (that Wit was in fact tricked) is no less likely, and arguably more likely by Occam's. 

Basically, if you think this is all a deep plot by Wit, there should be something in the text to support or at least imply a possible reading to support it. While it's always possible we'll find out later than this was a surprise master plan of Wit's, without some kind of foreshadowing, it ends up being a cheap trick.

We know from Taravangian's interaction with Rayse that ancient beings aren't impossible to trick, and that they have blind spots based on their personalities and motivations. One thing that seems well established is that Wit personally dislikes Rayse to an immense degree and that he doesn't want Rayse to be able to leave the Roshar system. As far as Wit is concerned, he's already won by Rayse having accepted the deal, and his personal dislike causes him to rub it in Rayse's face. Consider: Wit was able to hide from Rayse just fine up to the contest; there's no reason to expect that he wouldn't have been able to continue doing. Instead, he essentially signs the terms of the contest to let Rayse know who exactly got the better of him, and adds a clause that would allow him to personally taunt Rayse.

Quote

“I’ll stop,” he said with a grin. “I promise. But look, Jasnah, Rayse—Odium—is someone we can defeat. If he has one great failing it’s that he thinks he’s smarter than he is. He tried exceptionally hard to make Dalinar into his champion. Why? Because he doesn’t merely want to win, he wants to win in a way that says something. To everyone watching.

“He was so certain he could turn the Blackthorn that he bet almost everything on that singular gamble. Now he must be scared. While he pretends he has a dozen other plans, he’s scrambling to locate a champion who can legitimately win. Because he knows—same as I’m telling you—that the contest won’t only be about who can stab the hardest with their spear.”

Sanderson, Brandon. Rhythm of War (The Stormlight Archive) . Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition. 

(emphasis mine)

The irony is that Wit's comments about Rayse can apply to his own grandstanding. Wit making a mistake is foreshadowed in the text pretty well.

[Alatar he/him]

@Seloun

You're right, Hoid isn't infalible, in fact, none is in the cosmere, it seems. But the text you quoted seems to imply that Hoid acknowledges the failure, while Dirty Tricks implies that he's oblivious about it after having not one, but three hints that something happened. That on itself makes me think that Hoid is just acting as if he doesn't know, but he's really aware that something happened. How much? That's unclear, but I wouldn't say that he's completely aware of the first conversation.

[smokeesid]

I guess Hoid's ultimate fate is to help splinter all the shards. There is nightblood now that can kill the vessel making it easier

[+Oltux72 he/him]

21 hours ago, Leuthie said:

He is prepared for Rayse-Odium and what Rayse-Odium might do or be able to do with him. This, IMO, would include his Investiture Memories. Why would he not protect something so easily protected when going to meet a god?

Arguably he does and he may have made copies and stored them in secure locations.

21 hours ago, Leuthie said:

It also appears that Odium simply found and removed his mistake in the conversation that clued Wit into him not being Rayse.

For all we know the conversation really did happen twice (or even more often).

21 hours ago, Leuthie said:

Showing Hoid's loss of perfect pitch suggests more, but we have no clue how much Breath is required to store how much memory.

People of the Fifth Heightening do not suffer memory loss. We have an upper bound.

21 hours ago, Leuthie said:

It's also likely that Hoid holds just enough Investiture to have perfect pitch and losing any amount messes with it (which would become a great indicator if someone was messing with his memories).

We have seen Hoid use Awakening. In fact we have seen him use what were arguably very advanced techniques. It is unlikely that he would carry so little that losses would endanger his memory.

Furthermore taking away Breath would likely count as harm. Hoids Breaths may simply be malfunctioning from abuse rather than be gone. In fact that would make the attack much better. The information gained is even more valuable if Hoid does not recognise that it was taken. So an attacker would take care not to reduce the number of Breaths.

21 hours ago, Leuthie said:

I can only think that they were both trying to play each other and Hoid has been at it much longer than Mr. T has. Whatever happened, Hoid wasn't fully tricked by the brand new Vessel. Hoid sent his spren away. Hoid knows someone messed with his memories. Hoid has to know a Shard WOULD mess with his memories. Hoid let slip a very visible reaction to his internal thoughts just before Mr. T went in.

This was orchestrated to trick Odium, whether Rayse or not.

What is the benefit for Hoid in showing up at all? And how do you trick somebody without remembering it?

[trav]

@Seloun not something Hoid could consider. he knew Rayse. he doesn't know T. not like that.

21 hours ago, Leuthie said:

Why would he not protect something so easily protected when going to meet a god?

because he knew Rayse and Rayse would not have thought of that. or because he himself did not think of it.
before it was 2 "guys" set in their ways facing off. now there is suddenly someone with a new perspective on things.

I totally agree on the fortune part. hes going somewhere and then starts a play to pass his time until the real event happens.
I disagree on coming prepared as it was said that he does not know why he needs to be somewhere.

21 hours ago, Leuthie said:

Hoid has to know a Shard WOULD mess with his memories. Hoid let slip a very visible reaction to his internal thoughts just before Mr. T went in.

this one is brilliant. its not something specific to Odium. wether Rayse or T. its fall back honey pot memory for the eventuality that any Shard would sometimes attempt this.
what I am saying is that he was not prepared for Odium specifically, but for any Shard.

[Infinity Sliver]

50 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Arguably he does and he may have made copies and stored them in secure locations.

Can you  make copies of memories though? The only example we have of storing memory are copperminds and those disappear until you tap them again. And also,newly breaths,although this seems really different though

For all we know the conversation really did happen twice (or even more often).

Yea i think it did happen twice,which really makes me sad for some reason

People of the Fifth Heightening do not suffer memory loss. We have an upper bound.

I've never seen this stated anywhere. do you have a link or something?

We have seen Hoid use Awakening. In fact we have seen him use what were arguably very advanced techniques. It is unlikely that he would carry so little that losses would endanger his memory.

That's the thing though,if he stored his memory in his breaths and those breaths were tampered with,then the number he has,in relation to memory,doesnt matter?

Furthermore taking away Breath would likely count as harm. Hoids Breaths may simply be malfunctioning from abuse rather than be gone. In fact that would make the attack much better. The information gained is even more valuable if Hoid does not recognise that it was taken. So an attacker would take care not to reduce the number of Breaths.

Why would it? Drabs give theirs away and they arent really harmed physically right?

 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Infinitysliver

[ftl]

My new favorite theory is that both had their wins and losses in this encounter.

I think that Hoid HAD to have SOMETHING he meant to get done here - he wouldn't have showed up just to trade insults, he might seem whimsical but he's crafty and calculating, he wouldn't risk dealing with Rayse unless he had something to gain. And even with his memories removed, remembering doing nothing but trading insults, he ends the encounter by saying that yep, he accomplished whatever he set out to do. Him being so oblivious that he doesn't notice losing perfect pitch doesn't seem reasonable - so my guess is after seeing that his breath got messed with and he's forgotten what he did with his coins, he still concludes that the encounter went as planned. (The best guess I've read is that he's feeding Odium false memories - what better way to make your enemy trust your misinformation than to make it seem like they're literally reading your mind.)

But on the other hand, Hoid DID "Feel true terror" when he was being attacked. Maybe he's just that good of an actor, but we're seeing his own mind - that does seem unlikely. There should be a reason he was scared, beyond acting. So clearly, something went off-script.

So how can both be true? How could he have both been caught off-guard by something Toadium did, while NOT being surprised when he's lost some memories and some Breath?

Here's my latest theory. Hoid DID plan to use false memories to feed Rayse misinformation. His plan to give up some memories went off without a hitch... ....except, midway thorough is when he realized that he was facing Taravangian, so his carefully planned misinformation isn't the right misinformation for this vessel. And that knowledge DID get deleted from his Breathminds!

So in that sense, his plan is went perfectly - but he learned that it was the wrong plan. And he's terrified, because there's no room for missteps when fighting Shards. And then that info is deleted, and he thinks he's successfully mis-informed Rayse.

Edited December 3, 2020 by ftl

[Darth_Hel]

As far as making duplicates of memories, Hoid might be better at it than most. Using lightweaver or other illusions to watch a copy of what he remembers as well as describing his thoughts/what he wants to remember, then putting the memory of his replay into the coppermind/breaths while keeping the original in his mind.

[HSuperLee]

On 12/3/2020 at 3:02 AM, Darth_Hel said:

As far as making duplicates of memories, Hoid might be better at it than most. Using lightweaver or other illusions to watch a copy of what he remembers as well as describing his thoughts/what he wants to remember, then putting the memory of his replay into the coppermind/breaths while keeping the original in his mind.

In a similar vein, we've seen that Sazed tended to narrate notes he specifically wants to remember and store them in his copperminds. I wonder if part of that is "splitting" the memory so that he remembers what he saw normally, but stores the memory of hearing himself speak away. This specifically makes sense to me because its easier to remember words than a picture in your head, and thus storing words in a coppermind would risk less degradation whenever you tap them and thus be better for a Keeper. Especially since you can't really share a visual memory, but you can always narrate to pass on words you remember when helping to fill another Keeper's coppermind.

All that to say, Hoid might have some kind of trick where he stores his stories differently than his main memories, and thus while his main memories got deleted he still might be able to remember what he was saying while going to meet Odium and thus realize he told the same story twice or has hidden some hint within his narration. But that's just one idea. Whatever Hoid does to store his memory is likely way more advanced and deliberate than anything else we've seen and as a result he might have some subtle safeguards against it being tampered with. He'd just need a reason to check those safeguards.   

Edited December 4, 2020 by HSuperLee

[Serack he/him]

Sorry for the necro, but I was working on my own new topic to discuss this at length and saw that Brandon already broke the mystery in a recent WoB.

Quote

Questioner

My friends and I have been endlessly debating whether Wit knew what happened to him at the end of Rhythm, when he said "that went exactly as I planned," if he knew he was gonna get duped? Or if he got hornswoggled?

Brandon Sanderson

He legitimately got hornswoggled. One of the opening chapters of the next book is going to be him realizing that. There's a little teaser for you.

FanX 2021 (Sept. 16, 2021)

So I got this one wrong.

 

Edit to add:  By the way, a few months ago, the this fantastic reddit post theorized that the coins were a coppermind.  I think that's still a good possibility, particularly since the text calls them a "cent" in the literal sense.  

Edited October 5, 2021 by Serack