Mid-Range Game 46: A Broken Imperium

[Ashbringer he/him]

I'm so confused.

Hmm. Let's try something.

@Gears, convince me why Shard of Reading should be lynched and not you.

@Shard of Reading, convince me why Gears should be lynched and not you.

Why are those lines two different sizes...

[Quintessential she/her]

11 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Why are those lines two different sizes...

You used an of in one and not the other.

Edit: Sorry I wrote that when I was tired and not thinking straight lol.... I have no idea why they're different sizes. I would guess something to do with the highlight on a mention?

Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928

[dannnex male]

37 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm so confused.

Hmm. Let's try something.

@Gears, convince me why Shard of Reading should be lynched and not you.

@Shard of Reading, convince me why Gears should be lynched and not you.

Why are those lines two different sizes...

I mean...as I said, it’s possible that they’re both Village. 

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

17 minutes ago, Danex said:

I mean...as I said, it’s possible that they’re both Village. 

No it's possible Gears is village and Reading is TLR

[dannnex male]

Just now, Somebody from Sel said:

No it's possible Gears is village and Reading is TLR

Aaaaaand TLR can be Village aligned. So yeah. They could both be village.

[Guest Somebody from Scadrial]

Just now, Danex said:

Aaaaaand TLR can be Village aligned. So yeah. They could both be village.

I still wouldn't count that as village but ok that's your own terminology

[Quintessential she/her]

10 hours ago, Somebody from Sel said:

I still wouldn't count that as village but ok that's your own terminology

Yeah, TLR doesn't count towards parity so it doesn't make much sense to call them village.

[Gears]

11 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

@Gears, convince me why Shard of Reading should be lynched and not you.

I mean, our alignments aren't mutually exclusive. Like people have said, we could both be village-aligned, and Reading is TLR. We could even both actually be villagers, if there's a secret roleblocker who remains unknown. I actually suspect that neither of us are elims, for a variety of reasons. 1. I know my alignment. 2. A WGG C1? Seems unlikely. I suppose Reading could be elim-aligned TLR, but in thar case, they are of no importance.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 hour ago, Gears said:

I suppose Reading could be elim-aligned TLR, but in thar case, they are of no importance.

Wait. Wait wait wait.

@Matrim's Dice you said at one point that if someone's roleblocked, they'll be told that, right?

Edit: If they submitted an action, that is

Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Ashbringer he/him]

Gears claims he submitted no action.

Your alignments could be non-mutually exclusive, but that’s only in a very specific case. And we need to lynch someone. We have, what, 6 hours?

@Matrim's Dice, can I get a vote count?

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Gears claims he submitted no action.

That's not my point, Ash. I'm not talking about Gears necessarily.

Look, assuming that I'm correct and you find out if your action is roleblocked, here's how all the different possible scenarios for Reading's near-death could have played out:

- It was a WGG. No roleblock occurred. The elims target one of their own and then benefit from the confusion and the *assumption* that Reading is TLR.

- One of the elims targeted a villager and was RBd. They *know* that they were RBd. They use the confusion to plant the idea that it might have been a WGG, and to frame turtle, and they just sit back and watch.

- They accidentally targeted TLR. Now here's where my point is: if they target someone who isn't another elim, and they don't receive a message that they've been RBd, and that person survives, then they know that person must be TLR. Since they *also* know that that person has already aligned, they have to assume that that person aligned village because it has been pointed out multiple times that TLR only benefits from aligning elim if the elims are clearly winning, and it was *way* too early for TLR to tell yet. So what do they do? They target another kill at Reading, to eliminate TLR (who wouldn't be useful to them but extremely useful to us) and probably close PMs.

Now, notice that they *didn't* do that. That means there is no way that Reading is TLR. 

Unless, that is, Reading is TLR *and* the killer was RBd, which is very very very unlikely so I'm not even really counting it as a possibility.

Edit: Or unless the elims are all really stupid. In which case, yay for us? But I don't think that's true. It may have taken me as a villager a long time to think of this but it would be *super* obvious to anyone who knows the alignments of everyone else

Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928

[|TJ| he/him]

21 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

Similarly, I think the Gears-was-roleblocked PM-chain was too easy, and too widespread. Regardless of whether the chain was created by an elim or not, wouldn't the elims have started another chain early on to counter it if Gears actually was an elim? Wouldn't Gears have *passed on* the only counter-chain that appeared? (which we *know* he didn't do because no one has said they received the message).

If you can think of a scenario in which those two facts make sense with Gears being elim, please let me know so I can reevaluate my decisions so far. But I've been trying to come up with any explanation and the only one I can think of is that Gears is village, and just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, so to speak.

1. Gears PM-chain spreading too wide could possibly be explained by the reduced no. of elims (I think Mat mentioned that the game would have lesser-than-usual no. of elims because of the Spiked ability). So if the PM-chain mainly spread through village, it's the reason by the chain spread quickly. And I actually seriously doubt the elims would want to start a chain that can be traced back to them, because we would want to trace a claim if it lead to a mislynch. 

2. Actually, shouldn't Gears have passed on the chain? What did we all do when we received the PM that Gears was role-blocked? Did we spread the message or did we PM Gears to tell we received a message that they were role-blocked? Here, Gears received the message that Quinn was role-blocked and instead of spreading it, decided to PM Quinn?

[Mat he/him]

34 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

@Matrim's Dice you said at one point that if someone's roleblocked, they'll be told that, right?

Edit: If they submitted an action, that is

If someone submits an action and is roleblocked, they will be informed they were roleblocked.

23 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

@Matrim's Dice, can I get a vote count?

• Danex (3): Sart, Ventyl, Channelknight Fadran
• Gears (2): Somebody from Sel, TJ Shade
• Channelknight Fadran (1): Shard of Reading

[Ashbringer he/him]

13 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

- They accidentally targeted TLR. Now here's where my point is: if they target someone who isn't another elim, and they don't receive a message that they've been RBd, and that person survives, then they know that person must be TLR. Since they *also* know that that person has already aligned, they have to assume that that person aligned village because it has been pointed out multiple times that TLR only benefits from aligning elim if the elims are clearly winning, and it was *way* too early for TLR to tell yet. So what do they do? They target another kill at Reading, to eliminate TLR (who wouldn't be useful to them but extremely useful to us) and probably close PMs.

Ah...

The other main reason they’d hold off killing Reading would be to frame Gears, because if Reading died immediately as TLR it would mostly exonerate him.

Okay, I’ll move from that. But I’m not sure whether I like a Danex lynch... I’ll have to look back at them.

[Kings_way he/they]

I'm voting Fadran, because I definitely don't think we should kill Gears yet.

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

The other main reason they’d hold off killing Reading would be to frame Gears, because if Reading died immediately as TLR it would mostly exonerate him.

No, they wouldn't have risked it. If they had submitted a kill that turn, they would have cut Reading off from being able to tell us, the village, *any* of his alignment-scans (because that was the first turn he could scan). Especially if they worried Reading suspected one of them, they would have wanted to get rid of him immediately.

The off-chance that he was elim-aligned wouldn't have stopped them, either, because TLR doesn't count for parity and is essentially useless to the elim team. 

Edit: also, they would have known that killing him would likely close PMs, which would have been a *huge* advantage to them.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Condensation she/her]

I don't think Fadran's an elim. He told me he's played some mafia games before and that's why he's more skilled than most newcomers.

[Kings_way he/they]

1 minute ago, Condensation said:

I don't think Fadran's an elim. He told me he's played some mafia games before and that's why he's more skilled than most newcomers.

Well, the only thing that made me hesitate from voting him was his newness, so...

[Quintessential she/her]

Okay, I'm going to propose something. We all lynch Reading. Here's why:

- We can be reasonably certain that Reading is not TLR. And aside from that, in the only case where he *is* TLR (his killer was RBd), he still has two lives. So we won't kill TLR in that case anyway. If we try to lynch Reading and he survives, again, we will know an elim was RBd because you can't RB a lynch so Reading must still have had two lives. So that means Gears is elim, or that someone else RBd and isn't saying anything (at that point, RBers, you really *would* want to say something).

- If Reading is village, we can be almost certain that Gears is an elim, because Reading must have survived due to an RB.

- If Reading is elim, that means that Gears is village and that it was a WGG. 

This is the lynch that will give us the most information; no matter what, we will peg an elim. 

[Condensation she/her]

I... oddly find myself agreeing with that. It will give us good information no matter what we do. Quinn, you'd better not be an elim.  

Actually, does anyone have any opposing points? @Danex, I often notice that you see the other option if there is one.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Condensation said:

I... oddly find myself agreeing with that. It will give us good information no matter what we do. Quinn, you'd better not be an elim.  

Well, if the plan doesn't work for whatever reason, you know to lynch me next.

[+Whysper she/her]

20 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Okay, I'm going to propose something. We all lynch Reading. Here's why:

- We can be reasonably certain that Reading is not TLR. And aside from that, in the only case where he *is* TLR (his killer was RBd), he still has two lives. So we won't kill TLR in that case anyway. If we try to lynch Reading and he survives, again, we will know an elim was RBd because you can't RB a lynch so Reading must still have had two lives. So that means Gears is elim, or that someone else RBd and isn't saying anything (at that point, RBers, you really *would* want to say something).

- If Reading is village, we can be almost certain that Gears is an elim, because Reading must have survived due to an RB.

- If Reading is elim, that means that Gears is village and that it was a WGG. 

This is the lynch that will give us the most information; no matter what, we will peg an elim. 

Why do you think it is reasonably certain Reading is not TLR? Actually it is one of the two most likely cases. In all cases, the Elims chose Reading as the NK.

1. The most likely case is that Reading is Villager and someone RB'd the exact Elim doing the NK.

2. The 2nd likely case is that no one RB'd the Elim, but Reading is TLR and survived. But they will die next time.

3. The 3rd case is where someone RB'd the Elim and Reading also happens to be TLR. They still have one extra life.

That case of the WGG is really highly unlikely since even the Elims probably didn't know a RB would show up as a save. That's not how it usually works in most games. And I don't think they would have even thought of asking about that much less considered doing a WGG on N1 in the first place.

So assuming the TLR is Village-aligned, lynching Reading will either kill a Villager or kill a Village-aligned TLR and lose us PMs (since I think it is highly unlikely that Reading is TLR and the Elim was also RB'd, so TLR won't survive another kill).

Edited November 19, 2020 by Whysper

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Whysper said:

Why do you think it is reasonably certain Reading is not TLR? Actually it is one of the two most likely cases. In all cases, the Elims chose Reading as the NK.

1. The most likely case is that someone RB'd the exact Elim doing the NK.

2. The 2nd likely case is that no one RB'd the Elim, but Reading is TLR and survived. But they will die next time.

3. The 3rd case is where some RB'd the Elim and Reading also happens to be TLR. They still have one extra life.

That case of the WGG is really highly unlikely since even the Elims probably didn't know a RB would show up as a save. That's not how it usually works in most games. And I don't think they would have even thought of asking about that much less considered doing a WGG on N1 in the first place.

So assuming the TLR is Village-aligned, lynching Reading will either kill a Villager or kill a Village-aligned TLR and lose us PMs (since I think it is highly unlikely that Reading is TLR and the Elim was also RB'd, so TLR won't survive another kill).

How carefully did you read my previous post? Here's why Reading isn't TLR:

55 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Assume they accidentally targeted TLR. Now here's where my point is: if they target someone who isn't another elim, and they don't receive a message that they've been RBd, and that person survives, then they know that person must be TLR. Since they *also* know that that person has already aligned, they have to assume that that person aligned village because it has been pointed out multiple times that TLR only benefits from aligning elim if the elims are clearly winning, and it was *way* too early for TLR to tell yet. So what do they do? They target another kill at Reading, to eliminate TLR (who wouldn't be useful to them but extremely useful to us) and probably close PMs.

Now, notice that they *didn't* do that. That means there is no way that Reading is TLR. 

Edit: Also why did you rank the RB as the most likely option? It was first cycle, so no one actually knew anything. Especially since, as someone pointed out, Matrim claims there are fewer elims than usual this time because of the spiked feature, the likelihood of the only RBer who says they RBd guessing the one person who submitted the kill is less likely than the person submitting the kill guessing TLR (since the person submitting the kill knows the other elims and thus has fewer people to guess from). 

As for the WGG, we don't know how probable it is that they would do that. It seems unlikely they would take a risk like that so early on, but since we don't know who the elims are, we can't guess how likely they all are to take that kind of risk.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Quinn0928

[Kings_way he/they]

3 minutes ago, Whysper said:

1. The most likely case is that Reading is Villager and someone RB'd the exact Elim doing the NK.

2. The 2nd likely case is that no one RB'd the Elim, but Reading is TLR and survived. But they will die next time.

I think 2 is the most likely, out of sheer probability, but I get that it doesn't make much sense for the elim's not to NK reading again in the second case.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Kings_way

[Ghanderflaffle she/her]

Elims don’t know if TLR aligned with them, right?