Prediction on Kal's 4th oath

[Randallbabbage]

So from the last chapter we see Kaladin getting his family settled in and deciding to go back and be a surgeon with his father. The thing I noticed the most about the chapter is how he seemed to stress he wanted his family to have rooms with a balcony. That is why he specifically gave them those rooms. Now we also know from a few chapters back the fused are planning an attack on Urithru. Now the odds of them getting to the middle of the city are slim to none. They are going to hit the soft spots first, like the balconys. I believe that either one of kal's family members will be killed, or someone close to him from Hearthstone. I think this is going to be the event that causes him to realize that he cannot protect everyone and finally speak the 4th ideal. Not to mention he is going to want some payback. Just a little something I thought up last night. What do you all think?

[Karger]

I personally dislike the I cannot save everyone fourth oath theory.  I think evidence points to it being a wrong way of looking at the Windrunner ethos and Kaladin's growth in general.  Kaladin is claustrophobic and wants to please and live wiith his parents.  A balcony makes sense in this context.  Also I don't know if a mass assault is a smart way to take down Urithiru unless you manage to completely compromise the fortifications first.  You generally don't want to attack a fortified location directly and when you have to you need some kind of major advantage.  As such the fused will require their infiltration plan to work first and the odds of that bringing them into contact with the balcony at Harthstone are slim.  Also why assault a 8th floor balcony at all?  Nothing of military value is there.

[Vin_4_da_Win]

3 minutes ago, Karger said:

I personally dislike the I cannot save everyone fourth oath theory.  I think evidence points to it being a wrong way of looking at the Windrunner ethos and Kaladin's growth in general.

I think the reason why so many people agree with the "I cannot save everyone fourth oath theory", and why I subscribe to this theory, is because Kaladin swearing that oath forces Kaladin to confront one of his biggest remaining problems.  That problem is that he desperately thinks he can save everyone, even though that is completely impossible in warfare.  For gods sakes, in the Way of Kings, he actually proclaimed that if he was made bridge crew leader, than noone would die.  That conclusion alone suggests that he is completely in denial, and that he puts far to much pressure on himself.  He needs to accept that this isn't his fault.  I also know that in the Urithiru gem archive, a novice Windrunner says that:

"My spren claims that recording this will be good for me, so here I go. Everyone says I will swear the Fourth Ideal soon, and in so doing, earn my armor. I simply don't think that I can. Am I not supposed to want to help people?"

This seems to indicate that the Fourth Ideal ostensibly involves "not helping people" which seems to fit the "I cannot save everyone fourth oath theory".  You said you think evidence points against that theory.  I am curious what you mean by that.

[Schneeente]

Yeah, that is a very good catch @ windrunner recording in  Urithiru.

 

Why I am sure that the fourth oath has something to do with "you cannot save them all, accept it and FORGIVE yourself" is that he wasn't able to swear the ideal when it really mattered. When - from his perspective - his own life, Dalinar's and also Shallan's & Adolin's life were in mortal danger. In that situation he wasn't able to swear it. So it has to be something profound. Something his entire mentality/personality rejects. 

And as you quoted and we have seen it countless times his insane (and irrational) behavior to try to save everyone and then blame himself afterwards if it didn't work. All those little kids he tried to save when he was squadleader, then later when he tried to save slaves, also when he was bridgeleader. It's a reoccurring theme and it's time Kaladin faces that life is harsh, unfair and without mercy. 

I also agree that someone very close to him must die, the sorrow and guilt will nearly crush him (especially compounded by his depression) and then he has an epiphany and viola. 

[Master Silver]

Along with what you have said, it also seemed like Kaladin needed to be willing to lose Dalinar in order to swear the 4th ideal. And Kaladin came to the conclusion that he wasn't strong enough. to do that. I think it would be really cool and break the formula if Kaladin, calmly swears the 4th ideal while in the surgery room with his dad. Hugs him and thanks him for teaching him to grow calluses and then says, "now back to work" (or something far cooler) as he goes to repel the enemy that are attacking. Also hoping leading is found somewhere in the 4th ideal. Wanting to save everyone is in some ways crippling Kaladin

[Leuthie]

"I will let go of those I cannot protect"

The sequence in Shadesmar where Kaladin failed to say the Words consisted of him listing all of those he failed to protect while Windspren appeared. His words at the point of failure were: "I. . .can't"  "I can't lose him, but. . .oh, Almighty. . .I can't save him."

Prior to that, Kaladin pulled Windspren to him while thinking of the oaths. This line of thought was triggered by:

"The thought of Dalinar needing him now-while Kaladin was trapped and unable to help-brought a pain that was almost physical. He'd failed so many people in his life. . ."

...followed by a listing of the three Oaths he'd already sworn.

In each case, thinking about the people he'd failed resulted in Windspren showing up. I think we can assume that the Windspren were attracted to him getting close to swearing the Oath. The Oath directly deals with people Kaladin knows he's failed. A person who has devoted his life to protecting others will inevitably fail and must learn to deal with that failure. That has to be the Fourth Oath. Power granted for learning that not everyone is savable and not every failure needs to be on the protector's shoulders.

He failed because he was trying to say the Words specifically to save someone he knew he couldn't protect. "I can't save him" is the key to the whole sequence. He wanted to say the Fourth Oath to get the burst of power to get out of the current situation so he could save someone he knew he couldn't save. The contradiction meant he couldn't MEAN the Oath.

"I will let go of those I cannot protect"

Edited November 4, 2020 by Leuthie

[Karger]

1 hour ago, Vin_4_da_Win said:

I think the reason why so many people agree with the "I cannot save everyone fourth oath theory", and why I subscribe to this theory, is because Kaladin swearing that oath forces Kaladin to confront one of his biggest remaining problems.  That problem is that he desperately thinks he can save everyone

Except he also goes through periods thinking he can't save anyone and anyway coming to terms with failure is not the same accepting loss as inevitable.  Many strategies and views on the subject exist and they are not always identical.

[Leuthie]

1 minute ago, Karger said:

Except he also goes through periods thinking he can't save anyone and anyway coming to terms with failure is not the same accepting loss as inevitable.  Many strategies and views on the subject exist and they are not always identical.

Every Oath has multiple interpretations and permutations that apply to the specific bond. For Teft, the person he didn't want to protect even though it was right was himself.

I think you're right that Kaladin's problem isn't thinking he can save everyone. He sometimes questions who is right to save, but rarely worries about that choice in the moment or after. His primary problem is dealing with the aftermath of failure. His failures have undermined his successes in his mind, stealing his confidence. The fear of failure has lead to paralysis. He needs to deal with these failures and cope with future failures to continue as a Radiant.

Another Windrunner might have the problem of thinking they should be able to save everyone. Their Oath would be more along the lines of "not everyone can be saved". 

Just as with Dalinar's 4th Oath, this one deals with failure, however that failure manifests in the particular Radiant.

[Karger]

59 minutes ago, Leuthie said:

Just as with Dalinar's 4th Oath, this one deals with failure, however that failure manifests in the particular Radiant.

His third?

59 minutes ago, Leuthie said:

I think you're right that Kaladin's problem isn't thinking he can save everyone. He sometimes questions who is right to save, but rarely worries about that choice in the moment or after. His primary problem is dealing with the aftermath of failure. His failures have undermined his successes in his mind, stealing his confidence. The fear of failure has lead to paralysis. He needs to deal with these failures and cope with future failures to continue as a Radiant.

He also has a particular idea of what "saving" someone means.  It is not just that he has trouble learning but that he does not seem to see that bridge four were saved a long time before he helped them escape Sadeas.

[Realmatic Shadow]

I'm of the camp that Kaladin's fourth oath will be along the lines of 'not everyone needs me to save them', specifically to deal with the way he is overprotective of Bridge Four, and views them as unable to protect themselves. I think it is more likely that, with his family now 'in town' so to speak, when the attack on Urithiru comes, he will be confronted with a situation in which he cannot protect someone from his family (maybe Lirin, who is so against violence), only for them to protect themselves perfectly in their situation, which may be the catalyst for him to eventually say the words.

This is not really very good of a theory, considering what happened in Shadesmar during the Battle of Thaylen Field, and the context we have from the Gemstone Archive, but is still possible.

[Schneeente]

8 hours ago, Leuthie said:

He wanted to say the Fourth Oath to get the burst of power to get out of the current situation so he could save someone he knew he couldn't save. The contradiction meant he couldn't MEAN the Oath.

"I will let go of those I cannot protect"

Consider my mind blown. Very well done. Now I feel stupid for failing to realize that myself. It explains perfectly why it was impossible for him to swear those words in this situation, thank you. I always wondered "why he didn't just do it". Lives were in danger after all. 

[ftl]

The one thing I've thought - the oath has to involve some commitment to do something in particular, it has to be active. I don't think it can just be "I will accept..." or "I will let go..." or something like that. It needs to provide a course of action for the Windrunner to take.

That makes it harder to swear, too. I think it'll be a situation where not only does Kaladin have to accept that he can't save everyone, it'll be a situation where he deliberately has to send someone into danger.

Something like "I will send the strong to protect the helpless, even at the cost of their lives." Or maybe one where he extends the "I" to a "We" as a leader: "We will protect those we must, together, with all our lives on the line."

Not sure. I haven't found a good phrasing of that oath that completely makes sense to me.

[Michael Portz]

And now something completely different.

[Kaladin’s definitive 4th oath]
 

...

[better not read it]
 

...
 

[I warned you....]

....
 

“I will treat every appendicitis like I will treat Odium himself!”

[Istari]

This is my first post - but I’ve  been thinking that the fourth oath is:

”I will let fall the ones I cannot save, so that others may stand”.

Building upon the excellent analysis earlier in the this thread, I agree that the oaths tend to be active statements. 

I then look back at the chapter titles in Oathbringer where Kaladin is first struggling to say the oath: when they are storming the palace in Kholinar. Chapter 84: The One You Can Save. Chapter 86: The Others May Stand. I may be reading too much into this, but its almost like Brandon is placing the words of the oath there, just beyond our perception - like they are for Kaladin.

The formulation “I will let fall the ones I cannot save, so that others may stand” uses the words of these chapter headings, and, like earlier oaths, addresses the block that is preventing Kaladin from functioning: he wants to have everyone, so he can save no-one.

It also feels like it has a nice poetic symmetry.

 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2020 by Istari

[MIKIL]

35 minutes ago, Istari said:

This is my first post - but I’ve  been thinking that the fourth oath is:

”I will let fall the ones I cannot save, so that others may stand”.

Building upon the excellent analysis earlier in the this thread, I agree that the oaths tend to be active statements. 

I then look back at the chapter titles in Oathbringer where Kaladin is first struggling to say the oath: when they are storming the palace in Kholinar. Chapter 84: The One You Can Save. Chapter 86: The Others May Stand. I may be reading too much into this, but its almost like Brandon is placing the words of the oath there, just beyond our perception - like they are for Kaladin.

The formulation “I will let fall the ones I cannot save, so that others may stand” uses the words of these chapter headings, and, like earlier oaths, addresses the block that is preventing Kaladin from functioning: he wants to have everyone, so he can save no-one.

It also feels like it has a nice poetic symmetry.

 

This sounds something similar to stonewardens oath. i will satand when others fall with a twist

 

 

[Leuthie]

10 hours ago, ftl said:

The one thing I've thought - the oath has to involve some commitment to do something in particular, it has to be active. I don't think it can just be "I will accept..." or "I will let go..." or something like that. It needs to provide a course of action for the Windrunner to take.

That makes it harder to swear, too. I think it'll be a situation where not only does Kaladin have to accept that he can't save everyone, it'll be a situation where he deliberately has to send someone into danger.

Something like "I will send the strong to protect the helpless, even at the cost of their lives." Or maybe one where he extends the "I" to a "We" as a leader: "We will protect those we must, together, with all our lives on the line."

Not sure. I haven't found a good phrasing of that oath that completely makes sense to me.

More active and more in line with Dalinar's 3rd Oath*: "I will let go of those I cannot protect so that I can continue to protect those that I can"

*"I will take responsibility for what I have done. If I must fall, I will rise each time a better man."

 

12 hours ago, Realmatic Shadow said:

I'm of the camp that Kaladin's fourth oath will be along the lines of 'not everyone needs me to save them', specifically to deal with the way he is overprotective of Bridge Four, and views them as unable to protect themselves. I think it is more likely that, with his family now 'in town' so to speak, when the attack on Urithiru comes, he will be confronted with a situation in which he cannot protect someone from his family (maybe Lirin, who is so against violence), only for them to protect themselves perfectly in their situation, which may be the catalyst for him to eventually say the words.

This is not really very good of a theory, considering what happened in Shadesmar during the Battle of Thaylen Field, and the context we have from the Gemstone Archive, but is still possible.

Brandon is definitely putting his family in place to be a catalyst for finally saying the 4th Oath. Brandon is also creating a narrative where Kaladin has to hit rock bottom to do so. He's already been seen very low. Based on previous events, the crescendo of this arc is going to follow something brutal. However, I don't think Brandon wants to mute the accomplishment by requiring a family member's death. Maybe just the perception or possibility of it.

[Aglaia]

11 hours ago, ftl said:

That makes it harder to swear, too. I think it'll be a situation where not only does Kaladin have to accept that he can't save everyone, it'll be a situation where he deliberately has to send someone into danger.

Something like "I will send the strong to protect the helpless, even at the cost of their lives." Or maybe one where he extends the "I" to a "We" as a leader: "We will protect those we must, together, with all our lives on the line."

I just wanted to say that I really like the direction that is being considered here. Away from the more general “cannot save everyone”, to sending people, who willingly take this risk, into dangerous situations to save others.

That fits the scene from tWoK: All members of Bridge 4 decide they want to turn around and help Dalinar's army. Everyone knew it could mean their death and still made that choice.

Kaladin still thinks of the bridgemen who died as people he has failed. For me, this has always devalued their willingness to put their lives at risk a bit. Even if Kaladin doesn't mean it like that.

Also: Veil jokes that "Urithiru was full of Windrunners, men and women who would fall over themselves to make sure you didn't bruise your elbow on a misplaced table." So being overprotective seems to be a general problem with windrunners while extreme problems to deal with failure seems to be mostly specific to Kaladin.

7 hours ago, Istari said:

I then look back at the chapter titles in Oathbringer where Kaladin is first struggling to say the oath: when they are storming the palace in Kholinar. Chapter 84: The One You Can Save. Chapter 86: The Others May Stand. I may be reading too much into this, but its almost like Brandon is placing the words of the oath there, just beyond our perception - like they are for Kaladin.

I really like this idea. Especially since additionally the epigraph of chapter 86 deals with the fourth Windrunner oath. That sounds exactly like something Brandon Sanderson would do. Regardless of whether the theory is correct: I always admire people who notice something like that.

[Coriniroc]

I've been lurking a long time on this forum but felt compelled to post about this particular topic which is near and dear to me. I thought I'd throw in my two cents and feelings. Apologies if it's been mentioned/thoerized before.

On 11/4/2020 at 5:43 PM, Leuthie said:

He failed because he was trying to say the Words specifically to save someone he knew he couldn't protect. "I can't save him" is the key to the whole sequence. He wanted to say the Fourth Oath to get the burst of power to get out of the current situation so he could save someone he knew he couldn't save. The contradiction meant he couldn't MEAN the Oath.

"I will let go of those I cannot protect"

 As I think about it more and more, aided by some of your illuminating conversations above, I really am starting to subscribe more enthusiastically to the popular prediction along the lines of, "I cannot save everyone," or its other subtle variations in wordplay. I was struck by the above explanation for the inherent contradiction of speaking the fourth oath and how we've witnessed Kaladin say his oaths previously. Time and time again when we witness him speak a new oath, he utilizes his powers in a blaze of glory and dramatically saves or protects someone of importance. 

I think this version of the words, "I will let go of those I cannot protect," is exactly why this plot turn, no longer being a soldier and resigning himself to completing his surgeon training with his father, is absolutely necessary to fulfilling the fourth oath. I don't have any exact quotes, but if I remember correctly, part of Kaladin's flashbacks include Lirin teaching or him experiencing the necessity for a surgeon to not be attached, to try to save the person but know when you have exhausted all possible avenues. Kaladin understands this, as we see him perform his field medicine at times, but it eats at him to the bone. My theory is that there will be a moment during or after his surgeon training (attack on Urithiru?), where someone of importance or someone he exceptionally cares about (mom, dad, baby brother, bridge four member) will be on his operating table and he will speak the necessary words as he lets that person succumb to their eventual death.

"I will let go of those I cannot protect." 

"I cannot save everyone"

What will happen after? Will he then in typical fashion blaze with stormlight and save the day? Will he become a soldier again with new clarity, having overcome his darkness? I am unsure. But I think an important part of his development, to overcome his darkness, is to speak his words in a situation that is passive and not active, one that does not require an act of heroism.

[Leuthie]

13 minutes ago, Coriniroc said:

I don't have any exact quotes, but if I remember correctly, part of Kaladin's flashbacks include Lirin teaching or him experiencing the necessity for a surgeon to not be attached, to try to save the person but know when you have exhausted all possible avenues. Kaladin understands this, as we see him perform his field medicine at times, but it eats at him to the bone. My theory is that there will be a moment during or after his surgeon training (attack on Urithiru?), where someone of importance or someone he exceptionally cares about (mom, dad, baby brother, bridge four member) will be on his operating table and he will speak the necessary words as he lets that person succumb to their eventual death.
.

Right on! His freezing up and inability to say the 4th Ideal are directly in line with his inability to understand Lirin's ability to detach from his patients.

Okay, this arc is becoming way too clear. Kaladin spends time as a surgeon. After time spent in the field, he sees the necessity of separating himself from the result of his attempts to save people (as a surgeon). At the Urithiru fight, he freezes up deciding how to protect people from Singers while also protecting the Singers (probably ones he spent time with in Oathbringer, who now hate him because they were punished for his "help"). This freeze up threatens an immense personal loss (probably his family) and he finally accepts that he has to treat his military protection the same way he treats his surgical work: let go of the ones you can't save to remain able to save the ones you can. He 4th Ideal Oaths help him remove the threat just in time (his family remains in tact). He then doesn't return to surgery work full time because 1) they need him elsewhere and 2) he can now better deal with his past and perform his Windrunner duties without freezing up.

Since it's so clear, I'm pretty sure it will be completely subverted somehow and we'll all be wrong.

Edited November 5, 2020 by Leuthie

[Subvisual Haze]

"I will not deny the agency/autonomy of those I protect.  I will let them make their own choices."

I think Rock's situation is the key here.  Kaladin protected him when he needed to be protected by another.  Now however Rock is safe and an adult, he can and should make his own choices (in this case submitting himself for judgement by his people for violating their customs).  The only way to perfectly "protect" Rock would be to lock him in a cage forever, to perfectly shield him from the world regardless of how infantilizing it would be to him.  The morally correct position is to protect him when he truly needs it, and then let him live free.

Kaladin forgiving himself for the deaths of those he wants to protect is a natural consequence of this oath.  If you accept the agency of others, you also accept that you needn't feel guilty for the choices they willingly made.  

All on the path of Kaladin becoming King of everyone, the new Jezrien 

Edited November 6, 2020 by Subvisual Haze

[Master Silver]

The Wind Runners are known for protecting AND leading. All of the oaths thus far have dealt with protecting. I think all of us agree, and the text supports that Kaladin's oaths are in some way effecting him the way Odium said the shards of Honor and Cultivation were effecting their vessels. Tanavast (Honor) of course was aware of this flaw, and very likely build into the oaths checks, that would balance the impulse. Accepting loss (that you cannot protect everyone) and forgiving yourself for failures would certainly balance the first three oaths. But there has not been anything about leading yet, which is the other attribute of the WInd Runners. Of course we have seen Kaladin lead, but he has not been bound to do it because of any oath. What we have seen, is that be paralyzed by his fear of losing someone has stopped him from leading. So rather than a redundancy in the 4th oath about continuing to protect, what about an oath promising to continue to lead when even when you fail. That would reinforce the first ideal too, "Life before death. Strength before weakness. Journey before destination." I will forgive myself for those I fail. Save the ones I can and continue to lead.

Looking at that chapter title "The one You can Save"... it could simply be talking about Kaladin. His battle shock has nearly gotten him killed. Moash tried to get him to commit suicide. At the end of the day, Kaladin can really only save himself. So, here is another option. I will forgive myself. I will protect myself. I will lead others. Or, "When I cannot save others I will save myself and continue to lead."

[Lemiltock]

2 hours ago, Master Silver said:

The Wind Runners are known for protecting AND leading. All of the oaths thus far have dealt with protecting.

The biggest issue here is when you consider the other orders. For the windrunners it is about protection and their Divine Attributes somewhat match.

What about the Skybreakers, neither Just or Confident comes to mind when you consider swearing yourself to another, or a personal quest.

The Dustbringers selfmaster is unlikely to relate to bravery or obedience.

For the edgedances, loving at a stretch is about remembering other, but healing does not

The same with Truthwatchers, seeking truth loosly relates ti learned, but not giving

Lightweavers truths are anything but creative, but they are honest

Elsecallers selfmaster doesnt match up with wise or careful

Willshapers I will seek freedom also is noy resolute or building

The stonewardz like the windrunners line up with their first, dependable, but unlilley their second of resourceful

And dalinars oaths have been neither pious or guiding

 

From looking at all of the orders as a whole, I dont think the oaths will match the Devine attributes. I see them being cornerstones of the order, (the skybreakers are just and confident etc) but not as characteristics of their oaths.

 

[Kingsdaughter613]

On 11/5/2020 at 11:02 AM, Leuthie said:

More active and more in line with Dalinar's 3rd Oath*: "I will let go of those I cannot protect so that I can continue to protect those that I can"

*"I will take responsibility for what I have done. If I must fall, I will rise each time a better man."

 

Brandon is definitely putting his family in place to be a catalyst for finally saying the 4th Oath. Brandon is also creating a narrative where Kaladin has to hit rock bottom to do so. He's already been seen very low. Based on previous events, the crescendo of this arc is going to follow something brutal. However, I don't think Brandon wants to mute the accomplishment by requiring a family member's death. Maybe just the perception or possibility of it.

I had a theory where Kaladin is rushing to save his family, only to find the whole place caving in. He has to choose between trying to save someone he can’t help or saving those he can.
 

After the battle he learns that Lirin became a Stoneward and used Cohesion to protect everyone. (Also, since Stonewards are usually infantry, I love the idea of one being a pacifist.) So his family was safe all along, but Kal - and we - had no way of knowing it.

[feruchemicalrockband]

So I've been thinking about this for a while. I'm not really going to give much proof on this because I'm little busy right now, but if any one buys into my theory and wants me to explain further I will.

So essentially I think the 4th oath (at least for Kal) will be something along the lines of "I am not responsible for the choices of others." Biggest reasoning for this is Moash and his current arc of abandoning responsibility and placing fault on others. It would make for a good confrontation and subsequent swearing of the 4th ideal during the assault on the tower.

I've got plenty more reasoning behind this and would like to see others poke holes in this, so let me know!

Edited November 6, 2020 by feruchemicalrockband

[Lidolas]

 

16 hours ago, Subvisual Haze said:

"I will not deny the agency/autonomy of those I protect.  I will let them make their own choices."

I think Rock's situation is the key here.  Kaladin protected him when he needed to be protected by another.  Now however Rock is safe and an adult, he can and should make his own choices (in this case submitting himself for judgement by his people for violating their customs).  The only way to perfectly "protect" Rock would be to lock him in a cage forever, to perfectly shield him from the world regardless of how infantilizing it would be to him.  The morally correct position is to protect him when he truly needs it, and then let him live free.

Kaladin forgiving himself for the deaths of those he wants to protect is a natural consequence of this oath.  If you accept the agency of others, you also accept that you needn't feel guilty for the choices they willingly made.  

All on the path of Kaladin becoming King of everyone, the new Jezrien 

I like this idea.  Something along the lines of respecting the choices others make.  "I will let others make sacrifices"  or maybe even "I will let myself be saved by others"