Everybody will die

[+Oltux72 he/him]

The Rosharan year has 10 months. Assume that a Windrunner fights a flying Fused once a month on average. Let's say that you defeat the Fused with a probability of 95%. Your likelihood to be alive after that year is 60%. After two years 36%. At a more realistic probability of 90% in a single fight, just 35% are alive after a year. After two years 12%. That is an idealized view. Figuring a learning curve, you are leading the squires without Blades to their slaughter, while you have a few senior knights superior in fighting ability who will feel like angels of death training doomed youngsters. And the assumption of one fight per month may be quite optimistic.

Moash is correct. You cannot win against an immortal, resurrecting enemy. Of course this is wearing Kaladin down.

[RazeU]

damnation... math is brutal. 

[+Oltux72 he/him]

19 minutes ago, RazeU said:

damnation... math is brutal. 

Assume you are a Windrunner squire. If the fights are really 1 on 1, the Windrunners cannot use a formation to protect you. You will be up against a Fused with thousands of years of experience and an actually better weapon than you bear. I'd say the probable outcome is that the Fused wins. But let's give you a 75% chance of winning. After three fights 57% of all squires will be dead. After five fights over three quarters are dead.
For all practical purposes, joining the Windrunners is suicide. Bridge runs all over again. And Kaladin needs to watch this.

Edited September 3, 2020 by Oltux72
typo

[Darkeyed Scout]

It would definitely be brutal, but, like we saw in the chapter 6 preview, not every loss to a Fused ends with a dead Windrunner.

43 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

For all practical purposes, joining the Windrunners is suicide. Bridge runs all over again. And Kaladin needs to watch this.

I image this is why he only let squires over a certain level fight Fused 1 on 1 in Chapter 5. Don't get me wrong, I realize they still aren't safe, but it's at least a little better than bridge runs for Sadeas 

[Subvisual Haze]

A Windrunner need only fly 45  50 60 combat missions before they are discharged to a non-combat role.

[earthexile]

Between Stormlight healing and Edgedancer support staff, taking fatal wounds isn't as final as it used to be. I bet a lot of Windrunners who lose their fights still manage to survive, and if they do, they're back to 100% real quick.

[+honorblades he/him]

This sort of battle-math is why I believe the Desolation will have to be effectively resolved before the big time skip between SA 5 & 6. 
 

That, or the Radiants have to find a way to stop the Fused from resurrecting during every Everstorm. 
 

Otherwise, the likelihood of the main cast surviving that large of a time skip seems abysmal. 

[Karger he/him]

Kaladin is now establishing a surrender mechanic allowing both sides to be defeated without death.  This increases survival odds markedly.  Also shardblades are really hard to beet and the Windrunners are only going to get better while their opponents are going to be stuck at around the same.

[Gai-Donarthis]

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Moash is correct. You cannot win against an immortal, resurrecting enemy. Of course this is wearing Kaladin down.

But that's why you bring in Nightblood. No Fused are coming back from that. 

[NameIess]

Yeah, this is brutal. But on the upside, you get to fly! 

[+Oltux72 he/him]

5 hours ago, Darkeyed Scout said:

It would definitely be brutal, but, like we saw in the chapter 6 preview, not every loss to a Fused ends with a dead Windrunner.

I wonder how the flying Fused intend to do this while other Fused are watching.

2 hours ago, _edgedancer said:

This sort of battle-math is why I believe the Desolation will have to be effectively resolved before the big time skip between SA 5 & 6. 

A truce. Or Odium agrees to battle of champions under those conditions.

1 hour ago, Gai-Donarthis said:

But that's why you bring in Nightblood. No Fused are coming back from that. 

Well, no. Nightblood is irreplacable. You will need to give it to your best fighter. Risk mitigation leaves you no other option. In fact Nightblood is a sword. It is better suited to ground combat. Why give it to a Windrunner? You will still lose Windrunner squires and Knights below the third oath quickly. In fact you should use your low-ranking Windrunners in conjunction with other troops as paratroopers, not as air force. Yet I am not sure a Windrunner of the second oath could refuse to fight in the air to protect the rest against an air threat.

[Lidolas he/him]

15 hours ago, Subvisual Haze said:

A Windrunner need only fly 45  50 60 combat missions before they are discharged to a non-combat role.

This made my day!  Thank you  

[NameIess]

On 9/3/2020 at 10:13 PM, Oltux72 said:

I wonder how the flying Fused intend to do this while other Fused are watching.

I don't think that they would care about any other Fused. I think that the only person that could convince them to break their code of honor would be Odium, or perhaps one of the unmade. 

On 9/3/2020 at 10:13 PM, Oltux72 said:

Well, no. Nightblood is irreplacable. You will need to give it to your best fighter. Risk mitigation leaves you no other option. In fact Nightblood is a sword. It is better suited to ground combat. Why give it to a Windrunner? You will still lose Windrunner squires and Knights below the third oath quickly. In fact you should use your low-ranking Windrunners in conjunction with other troops as paratroopers, not as air force. Yet I am not sure a Windrunner of the second oath could refuse to fight in the air to protect the rest against an air threat.

I mean, Szeth isn't likely to just hand Nightblood to someone, not without a direct order from Dalinar.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

On 05/09/2020 at 4:46 PM, Nameless said:

I don't think that they would care about any other Fused. I think that the only person that could convince them to break their code of honor would be Odium, or perhaps one of the unmade.

They may not, yet the other Fused will care about bad air support and report it.

[NameIess]

7 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

They may not, yet the other Fused will care about bad air support and report it.

Yeah, but if the Windrunners don't re-enter the battle after being defeated, it's basically the same as killing them.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

14 hours ago, Nameless said:

Yeah, but if the Windrunners don't re-enter the battle after being defeated, it's basically the same as killing them.

No, killing them deprives the enemy of Blades and efficient Surgebinders.

[+Invocation]

On 9/3/2020 at 5:34 PM, Subvisual Haze said:

A Windrunner need only fly 45  50 60 combat missions before they are discharged to a non-combat role.

Wait are the Sky Raiders a viable job for Windrunners?

15 hours ago, Nameless said:

Yeah, but if the Windrunners don't re-enter the battle after being defeated, it's basically the same as killing them.

There's another bonus to having them dead: the spren. At some point, the spren will get tired of bonding to someone that will throw themselves into a metaphorical meat grinder. The more you kill, the quicker that comes. 

[Aminar]

On 9/3/2020 at 2:05 PM, Oltux72 said:

The Rosharan year has 10 months. Assume that a Windrunner fights a flying Fused once a month on average. Let's say that you defeat the Fused with a probability of 95%. Your likelihood to be alive after that year is 60%. After two years 36%. At a more realistic probability of 90% in a single fight, just 35% are alive after a year. After two years 12%. That is an idealized view. Figuring a learning curve, you are leading the squires without Blades to their slaughter, while you have a few senior knights superior in fighting ability who will feel like angels of death training doomed youngsters. And the assumption of one fight per month may be quite optimistic.

Moash is correct. You cannot win against an immortal, resurrecting enemy. Of course this is wearing Kaladin down.

This is flawed. Part of the idea is that

A: They're outnumbered by the fused so this amounts to picking the best ground in a hopeless fight already, 300 style.

B: It doesn't accommodate the odds of surviving a loss, which is the goal here, don't die, complete battle objectives, use Stormlight to get back in the fight sooner. 

C: Being any kind of soldier is stupidly dangerous. 35% survival over the course of a year of constant fighting is better than pretty much anything in history. 

[StormingTexan he/him]

Is it really this bleak though? New Windrunners can be made. Albeit not a simple as new Fused. You just have to be ahead of the curve enough to account for training and new bonds. From what we have seen so far they seem to be slightly ahead. Plus with time more will swear the fourth oath hopefully. To me the situation is more of a stalemate and that can be considered just as bad.