Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and vote on Frozen Mint. The fact that they've survived so many lynches at this point just really sets me on edge. I think she's our best shot at lynching an elim at this point. Also, if we're going to suddenly change lynches, could we maybe do it soon? I'll be gone for most of the rest of the cycle.

[Mint11 she/her]

Well this is unfortunate. Going to vote on Lotus.

EDIT:

Adding the vote count.

Mint (5): Vapor, Fifth, Lotus, Eternum, Striker
Lotus (2): Ash, Mint

Edited June 26, 2020 by Frozen Mint

[Vapor she/her]

No explanation?

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

2 minutes ago, Vapor said:

No explanation?

I mean, there’s little to be offered besides self-defence; I’d do the same in her position (in fact, I did, two cycles in a row )

Edited June 26, 2020 by Fifth Scholar
Eliminated redundancy

[Vapor she/her]

That's what I mean.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Truthwatcher still has a vote on Lotus. It’s 5 to 3.

Mint (5): Vapor, Fifth, Lotus, Eternum, Striker
Lotus (3): Ash, Mint, Truthwatcher

 

[Mint11 she/her]

29 minutes ago, Vapor said:

No explanation?

(1) I don't want to die.

(2) I said I'd be willing to lynch Lotus at the beginning of the cycle and I stated my reasons for being suspicious of them in the last cycle.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

@Straw, even if you’re evil, I’d like you to put down a vote now.  If we’re going to lose this by a hammer, I at least want the hammering Eliminators to be distinct from villagers voting last-minute. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

This cycle is over. Please await the next post before continuing.

[Arraenae]

Another day, another body. Varen’s dead, impaled by a spike through the gut. Still, at least they haven't gotten all of us yet. Maybe this change in leadership has been good for you lot, eh?

Mint, looks like you're the new suspicion of today, huh. And a more credible one too! They say they found a metal spike in your bag, like the ones the murderers are using. Still, we've got to do this the civilized way. Off to the basement with you! Here's a bucket, so you and Caliex can, uh, do your necessary business a little more cleanly. Maybe I should have figured that out yesterday, but oh well. Better dirty than dead.

I'm thinking that maybe we should rob House Orielle again. Seemed like an easy enough mark last time. Or maybe we should go for the Hastings? Everybody, if you want to have a say, write it down in plain purple which House you want to rob.

---

Mint was lynched and was an Obligator! Striker was killed and was a Skaa!

Vote Count:
Mint (5): Vapor, Eternum, Mystic, Fifth, Striker
Mystic (3): Ashbringer, Truthwatcher, Mint

Player list

Spoiler

1. Gears - Skaa
2. Matrim's Dice - Rieldi - Skaa
3. Ashbringer
4. Straw
5. Vapor
6. Shard of Reading - Reading - Skaa
7. Mist - Lumen- Skaa
8. Lord_Silberfarben - Skaa
9. TJ Shade - Box - Skaa
10. The_Truthwatcher
11. Eternum
12. MysticLotus - Feather
13. TheYoungPyromancer - Skaa
14. Experience - Drahs Xperience
15. Frozen Mint - Obligator
16. Ventyl - Aaiden Etteax - Skaa
17. Fifth Scholar - Al Funcoot
18. Devotary of Spontaneity - Caliex - Skaa
19. Xinoehp512 - Pelran - Skaa
20. StrikerEZ - Varen Darland - Skaa
21. Lahilt - Vilt Fayn Dangera - Skaa
22. Sparkrunner - Roadwalker

 

[Straw he/him]

Huh, sorry I couldn't be around at the end of the cycle. I had to do some family stuff. Fortunately, this death gives us a large amount of information to work with.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

We’re definitely robbing House Tormander.  
More seriously, this clarifies a lot. It looks like we have two easy lynch targets in Truthwatcher and Ashbringer, as the Elims would have hammered if one of those votes was innocent. The fourth elim is probably the non-voting Straw or one of Eternum/Vapor who wasn’t on to switch back from Mint, but our lynches should be fairly clear the next two rounds. I really don’t see a reason for anyone to suspect Lotus at all. 

[Straw he/him]

25 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

We’re definitely robbing House Tormander.  
More seriously, this clarifies a lot. It looks like we have two easy lynch targets in Truthwatcher and Ashbringer, as the Elims would have hammered if one of those votes was innocent. The fourth elim is probably the non-voting Straw or one of Eternum/Vapor who wasn’t on to switch back from Mint, but our lynches should be fairly clear the next two rounds. I really don’t see a reason for anyone to suspect Lotus at all. 

Strong agreement on a Truthwatcher/Ashbringer lynch. Truthwatcher. Also agreed on Lotus. Their C5 EoD actions wouldn't make sense as an elim, combined with them significantly helping the Mint lynch.

House Venture

EDIT: Editing as to not double post.

So, here's some tinfoil. Frozen Mint listed exactly five people who she'd be willing to lynch: Fifth, Striker, Lotus, Straw, Vapor. These were the missing people: Ashbringer, Eternum, Frozen Mint, The_Truthwatcher. It'd be really funny if she outed the elim team there.  Also, that lines up with my own suspicions. Striker is dead and flipped village, Lotus is village for reasons above, I'm village because I know I am, Fifth is probably village for helping with the Mint lynch, I'll have to go look at Vapor.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Straw

[+Lotus she/her]

I knew it! Mint was a obliger!
I’ll have a lot to RP with on this one!

Anyway, I think we should go after hours Lekal . They tend to have the best fabric choices.

[theTruthshaper]

Well as far as I can figure out, these are the suspicions on me:

1. I pushed for a Lotus lynch.

2. I didn't vote for Mint afterwards.

In my defense:

1. Lotus was very suspicious, @Fifth Scholar raised some good points but no one had done this before I went to sleep.

2. I was asleep.

 

Now we already know that atleast some of the elims voted on Mist, as the only other option is a Truthwatcher/Ash/Straw/Mint team, which would be weird since Straw is pushing for my lynch.

 

6 hours ago, Straw said:

So, here's some tinfoil. Frozen Mint listed exactly five people who she'd be willing to lynch: Fifth, Striker, Lotus, Straw, Vapor. These were the missing people: Ashbringer, Eternum, Frozen Mint, The_Truthwatcher. It'd be really funny if she outed the elim team there.  Also, that lines up with my own suspicions. Striker is dead and flipped village, Lotus is village for reasons above, I'm village because I know I am, Fifth is probably village for helping with the Mint lynch, I'll have to go look at Vapor.

Really, there was quite a high probability that Mint would be lynched and would then flip elim. I don't think there is any chance that this is the elim team. This doesn't seem like a mistake anyone would make.

 

@Straw @Fifth Scholar, why don't you suspect Lotus at all? While Fifth raised some good points, if they are true, why didn't Lotus give those reasons? Frankly, the reasons Lotus gave were very weak.

I am not going to push for Lotus just yet, but I don't understand why you are not at least somewhat suspicious of Lotus?

 

EDIT:

So I just realized some stuff, about possible combinations of elims.

If Lotus is not elim:

Spoiler

? - Stands for people who are not Truth, Ash, Straw Or Lotus

Mint / Ash / Truth / Straw

VIABLE. However, this only works if the elims play very badly and have absolutely no cooperation. (Which is probably not true, since the elims succeeded in pushing us to LyLo).

Mint / Truth / Straw / ?

VIABLE. Implies one elim votes for Mint. Since me and Straw could both not change our votes later, it is possible that I hoped to kill Lotus, while Straw had planned to come online but was not able to. Also implies bad elims.

Mint / Ash / Truth / ?

LOW PROBABILITY. This implies that one of the elims voted for Mint. If this were true, then Ashbringer would also have voted for Mint. They were active pretty much till the end of the cycle, and could have changed their vote anytime (a simple reason which could be given would be to protect against hammers). Or the other elim could have voted for Lotus, and tried to convince a villager to defect.

Mint / Ash / Straw / ?

LOW PROBABILITY. Suffers from same objects as the last team.

Mint / (Ash/Truth/Straw/?) / ? / ?

NOT POSSIBLE. The other elims would vote for Lotus.

 

ALSO:

If we have an elim!Straw with a village!Lotus, then Straw would really have voted for Lotus in the beginning of the cycle. Lotus' post was weird enough to at least get some suspicion.

If Lotus is elim:

Spoiler

If Lotus is an elim, there is no particular reason to suspect me or Ashbringer.

This gives us much less to work with, however this clearly tells us why there wasn't a hammer or a push from the elims to vote for Lotus. Simply, both of the lynch targets were elims, creating a new lynch target would have been practically impossible. Also this makes it easy for elims to distance themselves from both Lotus and Mint.

I want to suspect Straw and Fifth, simply because they jumped onto me with very little reasoning.

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher

[Eternum he/him]

There isn't much left to say here, I think. Truthwatcher. 

Pretty sure the elim team is Mint, Truthwatcher, Ash and Vapor at this point.

[theTruthshaper]

Is there any reason to suspect me other than the ones I have answered for?

@Eternum @Fifth Scholar @Straw

Edited June 27, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher

[Eternum he/him]

16 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Is there any reason to suspect me other than the ones I have answered for?

@Eternum @Fifth Scholar @Straw

Frankly, even the answers you gave aren't sufficient. I don't blame you for going to sleep, but it would be so easy for an elim to do that and disappear for the rest of the cycle. If you were an elim you wouldn't even have to wake up at rollover to hammer, seeing as your vote was already on Lotus.

[theTruthshaper]

25 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Frankly, even the answers you gave aren't sufficient. I don't blame you for going to sleep, but it would be so easy for an elim to do that and disappear for the rest of the cycle. If you were an elim you wouldn't even have to wake up at rollover to hammer, seeing as your vote was already on Lotus.

 

I go to sleep at the same time everyday? I also posted about being willing to vote Mint if other people do so. But nobody said anything, even though there were a few people lurking so I thought it was probably alright

 

[Straw he/him]

10 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Well as far as I can figure out, these are the suspicions on me:

1. I pushed for a Lotus lynch.

2. I didn't vote for Mint afterwards.

With this many people left, it's more about clearing people and lynching out of the remaining pool. I'm lynching out of a pool of Ashbringer, Vapor, you, and Eternum. I'd rather not vote on Eternum, since I feel good about him. That leaves you, Ashbringer, and Vapor as all elims. Looking back, your behavior seems like it could be coming from an elim. There's stuff like you using your new-playerness to avoid giving reads, unexplained wagoning on Pyro, throwing suspicion on Gears, asking when people will vote so you don't have to stand out, voting on Sparkrunner instead of your only elim read, saying you can't analyze since anything could come from an elim, claiming that Lotus was an elim hammering when Devotary was flipped village, continuing to tunnel on Lotus, and pushing the Lotus lynch without explaining why they're actually suspicious.

10 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

@Straw @Fifth Scholar, why don't you suspect Lotus at all? While Fifth raised some good points, if they are true, why didn't Lotus give those reasons? Frankly, the reasons Lotus gave were very weak.

I am not going to push for Lotus just yet, but I don't understand why you are not at least somewhat suspicious of Lotus?

It's because their EoD thing isn't something an eliminator would do in that scenario. Can you think of why an elim would want to do a last second switch there?

[+Lotus she/her]

Truthwatcher. They are both in Mint’s list of people they ‘Wouldn’t want to Lynch’ and honestly their suspicions last round were very tunneling and suspicious. It felt like a Elim trying to get a easy mislynch on probably? Lylo.

Edited June 27, 2020 by MysticLotus

[theTruthshaper]

1 hour ago, Straw said:

With this many people left, it's more about clearing people and lynching out of the remaining pool. I'm lynching out of a pool of Ashbringer, Vapor, you, and Eternum. I'd rather not vote on Eternum, since I feel good about him. That leaves you, Ashbringer, and Vapor as all elims. Looking back, your behavior seems like it could be coming from an elim. There's stuff like you using your new-playerness to avoid giving reads, unexplained wagoning on Pyro, throwing suspicion on Gears, asking when people will vote so you don't have to stand out, voting on Sparkrunner instead of your only elim read, saying you can't analyze since anything could come from an elim, claiming that Lotus was an elim hammering when Devotary was flipped village, continuing to tunnel on Lotus, and pushing the Lotus lynch without explaining why they're actually suspicious.

Well I will give my defence, even everybody seems to be set on killing me.:

1. Not giving reads: Why would not want to give reads if I am an elim? An elim is probably better at reads because they also have teammates. Also, I simply said that it is difficult to form concrete suspicions, especially for a new player. I however even told you about my gut read on Gears.

2. Wagoning on Pyro: Gears plan seemed to be quite solid at the time. He wanted us to lynch Pyro, and thus get information about TJ which made sense.

3. Suspicion on Gears: So, I am being attacked both for giving too few reads and for posting my only gut read. I got suspicious of somebody I told you guys about it, stressing the fact that it was simply a gut read and I have no good reason for it.

5. Voting on Sparkrunner: I was myself not sure about my read on Gears and I wanted to be safe from the inactivity filter. I felt that Sparkrunner was a good option. The only other lynch was being pushed by Gears who I did not trust.

4. Asking when people will vote: Not really. I simply ask when you people will post stuff. I keep missing it because I am asleep. Can you really blame me for wanted the discussion to happen while I am awake?

6. I get confused?! I mean this is true, and can't exactly trust other people.

7. I gave my reasoning last time that I felt that Lotus and Mint were both elims, and it was a move for distancing. The vote simply came to late, for it not to be suspicious. A villager would have no reason to switch the vote there especially as it would not CHANGE THE PERSON WHO IS GOING TO BE LYNCHED.

8. Point 7 is why they are suspicious.

1 hour ago, Straw said:

It's because their EoD thing isn't something an eliminator would do in that scenario. Can you think of why an elim would want to do a last second switch there?

Point 7, it is a cheap form of distancing.

Edited June 27, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher

[+Lotus she/her]

16 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

CHANGE THE PERSON WHO IS GOING TO BE LYNCHED

Well, if both me and Devotary’s changes had come a bit earlier, it would have. 

[Straw he/him]

11 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Well I will give my defence, even everybody seems to be set on killing me.:

1. Not giving reads: Why would not want to give reads if I am an elim? An elim is probably better at reads because they also have teammates. Also, I simply said that it is difficult to form concrete suspicions, especially for a new player. I however even told you about my gut read on Gears.

2. Wagoning on Pyro: Gears plan seemed to be quite solid at the time. He wanted us to lynch Pyro, and thus get information about TJ which made sense.

3. Suspicion on Gears: So, I am being attacked both for giving too few reads and for posting my only gut read. I got suspicious of somebody I told you guys about it, stressing the fact that it was simply a gut read and I have no good reason for it.

5. Voting on Sparkrunner: I was myself not sure about my read on Gears and I wanted to be safe from the inactivity filter. I felt that Sparkrunner was a good option. The only other lynch was being pushed by Gears who I did not trust.

4. Asking when people will vote: Not really. I simply ask when you people will post stuff. I keep missing it because I am asleep. Can you really blame me for wanted the discussion to happen while I am awake?

6. I get confused?! I mean this is true, and can't exactly trust other people.

7. I gave my reasoning last time that I felt that Lotus and Mint were both elims, and it was a move for distancing. The vote simply came to late, for it not to be suspicious. A villager would have no reason to switch the vote there especially as it would not CHANGE THE PERSON WHO IS GOING TO BE LYNCHED.

8. Point 7 is why they are suspicious.

Point 7, it is a cheap form of distancing.

1. Reads are the primary way to catch elims. If you're a villager, you don't know who's an elim and who's village at the start of the game. If you're an elim you know exactly who's village and who's elim. Therefore, it's much harder for an elim to come up with a realistic and evolving thought process. Also, you said that you didn't have enough information then. Do you still not have enough information to make reads?

2. Fair, but it's still suspicious that you gave no reasoning.

3. No, you're being attacked because you made one read before Lotus, and that one read was an attempt to cast suspicion on someone who was a fairly obvious villager.

4. Mm, yes, but the core thing about that was that you didn't want to vote earlier, which I found odd. Why not vote before everyone else posts and give them something to discuss?

5. Eh, why want Sparkrunner dead over Gears? You might not have been 100% sure on Gears, but it's still better than a random vote on an inactive, particularly when that inactive is set to die from the filter.

6. Surely you realize that some posts are more likely to come from eliminators, right? We don't just vote randomly, and you can definitely trust/distrust people based on posts.

7. Lotus did have a reason to switch the vote there: they thought that Devotary and them could possibly post in time to tie the vote. Do you have any other reasons for why an elim would want to switch there? I don't think the possible distancing would be worth the additional attention?

[theTruthshaper]

31 minutes ago, Straw said:

1. Reads are the primary way to catch elims. If you're a villager, you don't know who's an elim and who's village at the start of the game. If you're an elim you know exactly who's village and who's elim. Therefore, it's much harder for an elim to come up with a realistic and evolving thought process. Also, you said that you didn't have enough information then. Do you still not have enough information to make reads?

2. Fair, but it's still suspicious that you gave no reasoning.

3. No, you're being attacked because you made one read before Lotus, and that one read was an attempt to cast suspicion on someone who was a fairly obvious villager.

4. Mm, yes, but the core thing about that was that you didn't want to vote earlier, which I found odd. Why not vote before everyone else posts and give them something to discuss?

5. Eh, why want Sparkrunner dead over Gears? You might not have been 100% sure on Gears, but it's still better than a random vote on an inactive, particularly when that inactive is set to die from the filter.

6. Surely you realize that some posts are more likely to come from eliminators, right? We don't just vote randomly, and you can definitely trust/distrust people based on posts.

7. Lotus did have a reason to switch the vote there: they thought that Devotary and them could possibly post in time to tie the vote. Do you have any other reasons for why an elim would want to switch there? I don't think the possible distancing would be worth the additional attention?

1. I did make a sort of reads post here, while I will admit it is not much, I do think I can be excused since I am new to this game.

2. I posted just after Gears post calling for a vote on Pyro, thus felt it would be clear.

3. It was not an attempt to cast suspicion. I got an elim feeling, I told everybody about it.

4. My vote were usually the first votes that would stick to a given person. I DID vote before everybody else, but I would have preferred to do it after discussion. Eg, I would have removed my vote from Silber once a train formed on him, if the discussion happened in front of me. Voting earlier makes your votes less accurate.

5. Sparkrunner was already going to die. I only voted to escape the inactivity filter. I did not vote for Gears, because I did not want Gears to die, my suspicion was WEAK, Gears was helping village if he was villager, ergo killing him needlessly would be bad.

6. I do realize that, it is simply not easy to determine WHICH posts they are.

7. Then, why did they not do so earlier? I will admit I am tunneling a bit on Lotus, but in my defence, from my point of view it is impossible for both Straw and Lotus to be villagers.

46 minutes ago, MysticLotus said:

Well, if both me and Devotary’s changes had come a bit earlier, it would have. 

Then why did you not vote earlier? Also, there were only even chance of changing the lynch target after that.

 

Also, villagers, do you not think it is weird that nobody is coming to my defense?

Edited June 27, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher