Quick Fix 45: To Set an Example

[theTruthshaper]

What in the storming storms did Lotus do?

I would agree with Straw, but why would Lotus do this, as Devotary was not an elim?

@MysticLotus , can you explain yourself?

I will remove my vote if you give an explanation.

I can only think of one expanation:

Lotus/Mint are both elims and this was an intentionally mistimed hammer.

 

PS: Hammer does mean last minute vote changing, doesn't it?

Edited June 26, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Alright, a bit bleary and tired, but evidently we were wrong about Orlok putting in five Elims. I guess this cycle we really are definitely at LyLo, as 3/22 is too low even accounting for the absence of village power roles. I’m going to sleep but am putting a vote on Mint until I can re-examine both last cycle’s lynch, and my suspicions in general. 
Good night. 

[+Lotus she/her]

So, at the very end their it looked like some people switched to Mint, and so I thought that might become a last minute lynch, which I would have preferred much more to Devotary. I wasn’t sure how long it was to roll over, but I decided to switch.

(Didn’t help that I made a split second decision after only skimming the recent posts)

My best defense is that it would have been a terrible choice to make for a Elim, as suspicion would obviously fall on me(I regret it although maybe if the votes had changed we would have had a chance to lynch mint instead of Devotary)

I guess I’ve become kinda known for last minute take-back votes. Ah well. I really should stop checking this so often. It’s just so entertaining.

So, I hope you guys don’t try to Lynch me, but I guess if you did the game would be up anyway! 

[theTruthshaper]

OK, I am now super suspicious of Lotus.

5 minutes ago, MysticLotus said:

So, at the very end their it looked like some people switched to Mint, and so I thought that might become a last minute lynch, which I would have preferred much more to Devotary. I wasn’t sure how long it was to roll over, but I decided to switch.

The last person to switch over to Mint was Vapour, and as they did it atleast 20-30 minutes back, this is obviously false. You even posted this after Vapour's Switch:

4 hours ago, MysticLotus said:

Lettuces. This makes me think that a few of the people we are voting for are all Villagers! 
 

Otherwise, the Elims would just be pulling off a last minute vote

 

8 minutes ago, MysticLotus said:

My best defense is that it would have been a terrible choice to make for a Elim, as suspicion would obviously fall on me(I regret it although maybe if the votes had changed we would have had a chance to lynch mint instead of Devotary)

This simply goes into IKYK territory and I refuse to accept it.

I really think that Lotus, is an elim but I will change my read if this:

11 minutes ago, MysticLotus said:

I guess I’ve become kinda known for last minute take-back votes. Ah well. I really should stop checking this so often. It’s just so entertaining.

is actually their normal playing style and even then they are I think most certainly an elim.

[+Lotus she/her]

3 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

The last person to switch over to Mint was Vapour, and as they did it atleast 20-30 minutes back, this is obviously false. You even posted this after Vapour's Switch:

Yes, but my phone kept taking me to the top of the page so I kept re-reading old posts thinking they were new.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

is actually their normal playing style and even then they are I think most certainly an elim.

Well, seeing as they’re also a brand new player, we can’t really know if that’s their normal playing style or not. Most players, in my experience, tend to develop their play style after they get a few games under their belt first. This could very well end up being their normal play style, but we won’t know exactly for sure until a few games from now.

Right now, I could get behind a Mint or Lotus lynch. Maybe a Straw lynch if enough people want to do that. But whatever we decide to do, it has to be pretty unanimous because we have to be at LyLo at this point.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Lotus - While I get that reading through all the last minute posts is hard, it’s more an excuse than a reason. Your vote came a good three minutes after reset, I think.

(I had something else I said here but mobile copy-paste ate it, so... yeah.)

...

Still, the Elims do have a motive to have tried to hammer yesterday. Even if one person who hammered successfully to change the lynch was almost universally excepted as an Elim, we need everyone to agree, or else a hammer goes off. Even if this lynch is successful, that still leaves 6 Villagers to 3 Elims. Not good odds. And your actions are very close to a hammer.

May change my mind in the morning, but for now I’m sticking on Lotus.

[theTruthshaper]

24 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Still, the Elims do have a motive to have tried to hammer yesterday. Even if one person who hammered successfully to change the lynch was almost universally excepted as an Elim, we need everyone to agree, or else a hammer goes off. Even if this lynch is successful, that still leaves 6 Villagers to 3 Elims. Not good odds. And your actions are very close to a hammer.

I am not sure what you want to say with this, can someone explain it to me?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

40 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Still, the Elims do have a motive to have tried to hammer yesterday. Even if one person who hammered successfully to change the lynch was almost universally excepted as an Elim, we need everyone to agree, or else a hammer goes off. Even if this lynch is successful, that still leaves 6 Villagers to 3 Elims. Not good odds. And your actions are very close to a hammer.

There’s also the elim kill. Even if we lynch an elim this cycle, it’ll be 5 against 3 next cycle. And if we mislynch next cycle, we’re right back to LyLo.

[theTruthshaper]

I am confused. There are 9 people left, yes? According to you people there will be 4 elims, so 5 villagers. Even if we lynch an elim, we can never exit LyLo.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

8 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

I am confused. There are 9 people left, yes? According to you people there will be 4 elims, so 5 villagers. Even if we lynch an elim, we can never exit LyLo.

Ah, you’re right. I forgot about the elim kill, which would bring it down to 4 against 3 next cycle if we manage to lynch an elim this cycle. At this point, we have to lynch elims every cycle or else we lose.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Good point Striker - I think I forgot Reading’s death and thought there were more players than there actually are. Are there 10? (Reads) no, there are 9. My brain missed a cycle. Derp.

Truthwatcher, if there are four elims, their hammer hits with four votes, meaning we need five votes to guaruntee a lynch on the right target. Assuming if we pick a target the Elims will initially vote for them, that means we need nine votes to ensure the lynch goes where we want. Which gives us absolutely no room for error.

Or, essentially what Striker said.

... Or, since no one should be voting for themselves, we may just be dead anyway. Depends how bad my reasoning and counting skills are.

I’ve edited this post way too much without actually posting it...

[Eternum he/him]

9 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

I am confused. There are 9 people left, yes? According to you people there will be 4 elims, so 5 villagers. Even if we lynch an elim, we can never exit LyLo.

Yeah, you're right. Our only hope of winning now is getting all 4 elims in a row.

So.. I'm trying to narrow down my suspects.

Out of everyone, I'm most suspicious of Vapor and Lotus. I have no real read on Truthwatcher, Ashbringer, Striker and Mint and I want to say I like Straw and Fifth.

I want to rethink those reads for a moment. Mint has escaped the lynch far too many times. I haven't found anything I dislike in her posts, but the fact that she hasn't been lynched yet after, like, 3 cycles of her being one of the main trains immediately drops her down to suspicious. I'd say this also makes me very suspicious of Fifth, but he openly said Mint should be more grateful to him for saving her for two cycles in a row (How bold of an elim do you have to be to say that?) and very quickly turns on her when he starts thinking she might be going for a mislynch. Which is admittedly still weird, but it's slightly mitigated by it being in self defense... I might have to rethink the groups entirely.

Striker and Ashbringer are probably not elim. They both messed up the number of living people and didn't realize next cycle would still be LyLo even if everything went perfectly for the village, which makes me feel like their perspective on the situation is very "village-y", if that makes any sense. An elim would have thought the situation over too many times to make such a mistake, I think.

Vapor and Lotus are the people I dislike the most and it's a mix of a lack of genuinely helpful contributions, generally odd playstyles and an outright terrible gut feel about both of them.

Straw has been really nothing but helpful the entire game and I want to say the only reason I really suspect them now is because the paranoia is settling in. But I'd rather trust them at this point.

Truthwatcher is a wild card, honestly. I am genuinely not sure about them either, but I've liked them more these past couple of cycles. That's just a gut read though, and I definitely don't trust them.

Main suspicions: Vapor, Lotus, Mint

Kind of suspicious: Fifth, Truthwatcher

Least suspicious: Striker, Ash, Straw

I'd be willing to lynch any of the first five, honestly. There's no need to reiterate that we can't allow a hammer to happen, so we all need to be voting on the same person by the end of the cycle.

Any thoughts?

Edited June 26, 2020 by Eternum

[theTruthshaper]

I do really think we should vote Lotus, does ANYONE have a plausible explanation for what Lotus did?

[+Lotus she/her]

My Reads:

Ashbringer: Unsure. I don't think they are a Elim, but at this point could be totally wrong. Seems to have fairly useful analysis, although who knows.

Straw I think that they are village, just because they haven't done much that I'd find super suspicious, although I could see a fifth-straw team that had a staged argument on the first cycle to help distance themselves. 

Vapor: Could be an Elim, although could also just be a new player who is still getting their footing. Most of their Elim-y moves are that I would have definitely done, in their position.  Although, could be using new player as an excuse to hide Elim actions.

The_Truthwatcher Not sure. On my list of maybe Elim, but I'm probably biased just because they're one of the ones who suspects me. Then again, I would be a very obvious choice after last round for an Elim to point to and try to get a mislynch. 

Eternum Don't really know. Can't think of much to say other then he's got two newer players as his top Elim suspects.

Frozen Mint: Very mixed opinions. On one hand, they haven't done anything that is actually super suspicious, but on the other, they have been a top Lynch suspect many times and it always fails.

Fifth Scholar Could be a part of a Fifth-Straw team. I like how they think about things, though. Had a possible Lynch last turn that didn't turn into an actual Lynch.

StrikerEZ One of the few I feel like is definitely a Village. Has been very helpful and useful, although I guess he could be covering up.

 

In short:

I'd be willing to Lynch Frozen Mint, Fifth Scholar, Truthwatcher, maybe some other people

Edited June 26, 2020 by MysticLotus

[Mint11 she/her]

Quote

 

All right. I’m tempted to go along with Striker and vote Mint immediately, especially for the blatant ingratitude here

 

@Fifth Scholar Well I'm glad I'm not dead, but gratitude doesn't have much to do with whether or not you're an elim. I can be grateful and still be suspicious of you. And like I said, I suspect that the motives behind your posts were to save a teammate (Striker). Even if that's not the case, it was incredibly strange. TJ brought up the good point that you didn't want to lynch me because there didn't seem to be much to it, which I agree with, but if that was your reasoning, it seems awfully strange that you agreed to a last minute lynch train. 

Quote

 

I think the collective failure of the village to focus on anyone outside of myself, Mint and Striker (and Straw to some extent, I suppose) for the last three cycles has hurt analysis significantly, which this section above highlights quite nicely.

 

None of us were lynched, so how can you be sure of that? Since none of us have been confirmed village, it's possible that the analysis is completely spot on and we just don't know it.

I want to point out that Fifth was the first one to bring up Devotary as a lynch target. She was one of the only players to have a decent level of trust last cycle. Bringing her up created more chaos and confusion last cycle and got another villager lynched. 

I'm going to vote Fifth for now. I agree we need consensus among the villagers on who to vote for this cycle so I'll switch as necessary. List of people I'm willing to lynch: Fifth, Striker, Lotus, Straw, Vapor

I think everyone on that list has been mentioned by me before except for Vapor so just to touch on that, I'm wary of Vapor because he keeps voting without providing any reasoning.

[theTruthshaper]

Well, I would prefer to vote for Lotus but if everybody is voting for Mint, I suppose that it could be an acceptable alternative.

[Vapor she/her]

She, please. Earlier in the game I was suspicious because I was new. Now, my phone is taken away by my mom and I can only get on the computer a few times a day for only a little while because I'm saving my computer time for the end of the cycle. I don't have enough time to read all the posts and then write a long reasoning post. Especially because now I'm having to defend myself every time.

Edit: Flame on!

Edited June 26, 2020 by Vapor

[theTruthshaper]

Well, I am going to sleep and am keeping my vote on Lotus. So, let's hope we meet tomorrow.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Umm... does that mean we have to lynch Lotus or lose?

Lotus is still my main suspect, but at this point my judgement should not be the Village’s deciding factor...

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

18 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Yeah, this is probably Lylo, unless there's secretly only one "Obligator" who's an Inquisitor or something...

Okay, I want to know what Lotus was up to. Devotary flipped Village, so it's less certain of being a hammer gone wrong, but this is still REALLY weird, and I could see the Elims pocketing an experienced player through a new one.

I think a far more likely explanation for last cycle is Devotary contacting Lotus through PM, convincing them that she’s a villager, and going for the last-minute hammer onto Mint to save Devotary. Due to timing, this was obviously largely ineffective, but I don’t think it’s profitable to suspect Lotus at this point on the basis of that alone. If last-minute voting indicated eliminator behaviour, Devotary would have flipped evil. 

Maybe it’s an impermissible inflexibility in my reads, but I still can’t see Striker as evil. Lotus I’m inclined to trust, as she seems naturally set up for a mislynch, which means I’ve left room for two villagers in [Eternum, Vapor, Ashbringer, Mint, Straw, Truthwatcher]. Currently I’m leaning Eternum and one of Truthwatcher or Vapor, which is bad because that means in the world I’ve constructed (Elims Straw/Ash/Mint, which...makes a surprising amount of sense), we already have three votes placed on people who are, in my estimation, probably village, and one by a misguided villager who may not rejoin us. 
The only question is therefore which of the people in that pool I’d like lynched. I’m loath to divide the votes again, and am quite tired of unintentionally saving Mint, especially if she’s just going to use her survival to keep pushing my mislynch, so I’m keeping my vote where it is unless there’s a hitherto unforeseen pool of support for a Straw or Ash lynch and literally everybody currently on Mint or Lotus switches off. It also helps that she’s the person I feel by far the most discomfort towards. Whatever happens, we need to get the pool of votes down to two people or fewer, as if there’s a three-way contest, we’re handing the Eliminators a victory on a silver platter. Ultimately, that’s why I think Mint needs to finally die, as she appeared to be trying to do just that with her vote on me.

[+Lotus she/her]

@Fifth Scholar Makes some really, really good points. 
 

I think a Mint vote makes the most sense at the moment.

[Vapor she/her]

The reason I'm voting Mint is that she has been moderately suspicious the whole game, and most of the time we vote her, she gets away with it because other people are more suspicious. She seems to be very good at taking the blame off of her.

[Eternum he/him]

I agree with most of what Fifth has to say here, honestly. I'm going to place a vote on Mint. 2 hours and 30 minutes left. If anyone has any other ideas, speak up. Either that or vote Mint. Let's not make this a last minute affair if we can help it.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Can we get a list of who we’re going for as possible targets?

The remaining players are Ash, Fifth, Lotus, Mint, Eternum, Straw, Striker, Truthwatcher, and Vapor. Of those, I trust myself, Straw, and Striker. That leaves Fifth, Lotus, Mint, Eternum, Truth, and Vapor.

I’ve made my suspicions of Lotus clear, and still I don’t see a good defense. Mint seems to have done not much wrong, but she’s wiggled out of far too many lynches. Truthwatcher is gone with a vote on Lotus, and according to her she won’t come back this turn. Fifth has just really been the opposite to Straw this whole time, but has proven... slippery. Vapor seems to want Mint lynched and no one else. And it’s hard to tell what Eternus is doing, but he’s always seemed like he’s making fair decisions.

My order for suspicion would probably be most suspicious are Lotus+Mint, then Fifth, then Truthwatcher, then Vapor, then finally Eternum. But there’s not a ton of room inbetween those reads.

I’ll move to Mint (or someone else) if needed, but with Truthwatcher’s vote stuck on Lotus it would be easier to lynch her, and I don’t want to close out all our options yet.