Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[Emi she/her]

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Emi's insistence to vote for Karnage makes them suspicious. Still a little confused about the Ventyl-Emi role-block thing, but I feel Emi is the best among the rest. 

Ok. Why it makes me so suspicious?

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, Emi said:

Ok. Why it makes me so suspicious?

Well, basically it's a combination of your actions, other elims' behaviour with you and a process of elimination. It's basically clearing people and looking at what remains. I'll try to explain below.

Kandra analysis:

There are 7 players remaining excluding me. Magestar is basically cleared because of his actions in the previous cycle. He obviously can still use his abilities so he can't be the kandra. I personally know for a fact that Pyro used his abilities after Araris was killed. Ashbringer has also Pulsed after the initial kandra death. 
That leaves Emi, Mist, Karnage and Lahilt. I learned that Mist is a Thug just recently. She'd have lost the passive abilities if she had turned into a kandra. I also know Lahilt has used his abilities as well. That leaves us with just Emi and Karnage. I'm personally leaning towards Karnage as the kandra since he was inactive during N4, the night the supposed kandra kill was missing. I don't want to lynch the kandra since it will be a waste of a lynch and we're in a strong position to win despite letting kandra live. Why is it important to narrow down the kandra suspects, you ask? Well read on.

PS: Splitting my post becausing boxings.   Someone please post.

[Mist she/her]

@TJ Shade. 

RP to come later, as well as a vote.

[|TJ| he/him]

Thanks Mist!

Elim analysis:

Similar to the previous post, we start with 7 players excluding me. Magestar can be removed from the suspect list for the same reason as above. Pyro voted for Hatz while trying to save Coda. He also tried hard to prevent the Drake lynch. Ashbringer was instrumental in lynching Ventyl.

Out of Mist, Karnage, Emi and Lahilt, I’d remove Karnage from the list because he voted for Hatz in self-preservation (although he was late). Ventyl voted on him for the same reason. He in turn voted for Ventyl. Kidpen also voted for Karnage stating “bad vibes”. For all these reasons, Karnage does not seem like an elim at all. 

That leaves Mist, Emi and Lahilt. I’d clear Mist as well because of her vote of Hatz and Kynedath in D1 and D2. So now there’s only Emi and Lahilt. 

Case 1: 2 Elims remaining

If there are two elims that means Emi and Lahilt are the last remaining members of the team (with an outside chance of elim!Mist. If that’s the reason, one of Lahilt or Emi is an elim and the other is a village. I don’t really believe this is true). If Emi flips elim, the remaining person on the kandra list is Karnage. So that would make him the kandra. 

Case 2: 1 Elim remaining

One of Emi or Lahilt is the elim. So if Emi flips village, we can just lynch Lahilt the next cycle or hope the Coinshot gets him. Emi might even flip kandra, and still we can lynch Lahilt without bothering with Karnage. 

@Emi for all the above reasons, I believe you are the best lynch target right now (well, it’s a toss-up between you and Lahilt but he seems to have done more villager-y stuff). 

Do you have anything that would make us believe you are a villager? Any actions you took that helped a villager? 

[Emi she/her]

Well, I thought that the fact that Ventyl wanted to block me was enough. I can only say that I don't have roles, which protects villagers. I guess you can't just believe me when I will say that I'm not an Elim and you shouldn't lynch me, unless you're an Elim?

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Emi said:

Well, I thought that the fact that Ventyl wanted to block me was enough.

This is actually one fact that is bugging me though. @Ashbringer, I believe you offered Xino, Emi, and Lahilt as potential role-block targets for Ventyl right? Makes me wonder why he chose Emi out of those three. If he avoided choosing Xino because he was an elim, could he also have avoided choosing Lahilt for the same reason? I'd be willing to change my vote to Lahilt if anyone else supports the lynch. 

[Emi she/her]

57 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

This is actually one fact that is bugging me though. @Ashbringer, I believe you offered Xino, Emi, and Lahilt as potential role-block targets for Ventyl right? Makes me wonder why he chose Emi out of those three. If he avoided choosing Xino because he was an elim, could he also have avoided choosing Lahilt for the same reason? I'd be willing to change my vote to Lahilt if anyone else supports the lynch. 

Well, I can do it. Karnage, Lahilt

[Ashbringer he/him]

Yup, those are the three TJ.

I could support either Emi or Lahilt for today's lynch, but I'm open to arguments as to which one of you two to lynch. @Lahilt. @Karnage is probably pseudo-clear as the most likely Kandra, and if he happens to be an Elim!Kandra then the real Elims may just take care of him for us.

Making a tie between the two could prove interesting, but that's probably an unnecessary risk. But mislynching here would... not be good.

 

I will say this: I'm slightly nervous of this all being an Elim!Mage masterstroke.

It's probably my conspiracy-theory me talking, but think about it. We now can't lynch Mage this turn because we need his information. Next turn, he could "reveal" his attacker, essentially sentencing them to death by Coinshot or the next lynch, forcing the Village to possibly hit two villagers in a row.

... you know, that made a lot more sense in my head than when I type it. I think we should still follow Mage's target, but we should do it with the Coinshot instead of with our next lynch. We don't have any more leads, and I think I trust Mage, but we can't afford to wait on two lynches.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Ashbringer

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

@Emi what's your list of the other players? I'd like you to rank them, in order of least/most clear.

EDIT: Flame On!

Edited June 20, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Ashbringer he/him]

Lord Faleast had tried to be quiet. He had tried to sit in the corner, not saying anything, merely being a neutral observer. It didn't go very well. To many people had died, and now only eight members still stood, staring daggers at each other from across the room. Who knows where Darson had hid himself, and the small kitten appeared to be hiding as well.

He looked around. Pyria Young, the child. Reginald, the bloody man who claimed he'd seen a Loyalist in Augur-fueled visions. TJ, the analyst of the group that considered themselves pure. Lorinne, the girl who'd had a close encounter with the man Lafay and survived to tell some amount of a tale. Lumen, the apparent Thug who seemed to be grudgingly trusted. Lahilt, the silent soldier, and Lance Neverwatch, the suspected Faceless Immortal, sat around the table as if asleep. There sure are a lot of people here who's names start with L. And, of course, himself, watching the group and failing to avoid taking sides.

This was the Endgame, for both the People's Republic and for the Loyalists. If the "core" could truly be trusted, then the PRE could likely come out of this disaster intact. If.

...

Striker... I just realized... is the Village of the "People's Republic of Elendel" trying to lead a Communist revolution of Scadrial?

[StrikerEZ he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Striker... I just realized... is the Village of the "People's Republic of Elendel" trying to lead a Communist revolution of Scadrial?

Basically.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Same goes for you @Lahilt

[Lahilt he/him]

Ok as summoned I will defend myself. My suspicions of other players in order of most to least 

1-Mist because they are a thug makes me not want to lynch them as much but they are still my most suspicious.

2Emi not much to read on but still voting and shortposts very defensive.  

3 Karnage very little read 

4 TJ Shade a lot of good analysis posts but not any solid reason to be village 

5 Ashbringer after Ventyl tried to take them down i get a fairly solid Village plus good long posts 

6 Pyro tried to save villagers early on and getting new players involved I would find it hard to think them Elim.

7 Magestar his roleclaim would be stupid if he was Elim this could change if things do not measure up tomorow night.

8 Lahilt i got a message from strikerEZ on him. Did i miss someone?

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

8 Lahilt i got a message from strikerEZ on him. Did i miss someone?

I get that you would rank yourself the most village in any scenario... but what is this supposed to mean?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

He's saying he got a role PM.

[|TJ| he/him]

Rusting idiot is what I am. How in the Ruin did I get tangled up in this mess? TJ pondered as he looked around him. He was one among the trusted four. For some reason, these people trusted him. A rusting hazekiller no less. He was just fine sulking in a corner and sneaking off by himself to root out the Loyalists. But no, they had to go on and involve him. He should have refused. Even now he felt like getting away from them, but deep down, he knew. You see, trust is a funny thing. He knew not to believe anyone, but he also knew he needed to trust them. So he did. He told them all about the information he had gathered as the result of observing others talk and more importantly, by exploring the corridors adjacent to the warehouse. He looked to his left, at Reginald was talking about the Loyalist who attacked him, and was revealing his clever ploy to determine his attacker. Smart. It's a good thing I decided to trust this man. He's probably the most trustworthy of the lot. 

He looked towards the young girl trying to listen to the conversation. Pyria. She was very close to Lorena and her death had really impacted Pyria. But she didn't let it show. She was equally helpful to catch the Loyalists. She could go to places no adult could and eavesdropped on important conversations and revealed them all to us. Good girl. I hope she escapes this unscathed. He then wandered his gaze at Lord Faleast who did a good job of holding everyone together. They were good people. He'd try his best to make sure they'd survive this. Not long now. It's almost over. With a heavy heart, he walked towards the people he suspected. He knew there were innocents among them. He just wished Harmony gave him the knowledge to choose correctly.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Pyria was scared. Not a day had gone by where one of her friends hadn't been killed, whether assassinated in the night, or falsely accused during the daylight hours. The youth had tried protesting, but her small voice was easily drowned out by angry shouting. She had heard there was even a Faceless Immortal, like the Soonie Pups, but people were mad at it now. Some people even thought it would attack her next, and were trying to arrange protection.

She shivered.

Her daddy had never told her what to do in times like this, and all the people she had been clinging to were getting attacked. Her remaining playmates were just as terrified, and seemed to be doubling down to try to avoid the situation. Pyria could understand that. She didn't want to get hurt, but almost everyone was gone now. Of the few remaining, there were some she thought she could trust, but she was afraid to get too close, lest they end up dead as well. The girl took a deep breath, then gripped her necklace.

Pyria would have to stop hiding. 

It was her turn to act now.

---

I hate to vote for one of the few remaining SHOUTY SHOUT AGENCY!!! members, but we need to find elims. At least the list'll provide us some data.

Sorry.

Lahilt

 

[Magestar he/him]

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Yup, those are the three TJ.

I could support either Emi or Lahilt for today's lynch, but I'm open to arguments as to which one of you two to lynch. @Lahilt. @Karnage is probably pseudo-clear as the most likely Kandra, and if he happens to be an Elim!Kandra then the real Elims may just take care of him for us.

Making a tie between the two could prove interesting, but that's probably an unnecessary risk. But mislynching here would... not be good.

 

I will say this: I'm slightly nervous of this all being an Elim!Mage masterstroke.

It's probably my conspiracy-theory me talking, but think about it. We now can't lynch Mage this turn because we need his information. Next turn, he could "reveal" his attacker, essentially sentencing them to death by Coinshot or the next lynch, forcing the Village to possibly hit two villagers in a row.

... you know, that made a lot more sense in my head than when I type it. I think we should still follow Mage's target, but we should do it with the Coinshot instead of with our next lynch. We don't have any more leads, and I think I trust Mage, but we can't afford to wait on two lynches.

Geez.  I wish I was as awesome at this as you guys are making me out to be.    

The problem with using the Ventyl/Emi interactions as reasoning for whether to lynch Emi or to lynch Lahilt is that Ventyl could easily have chosen Emi, who has been active enough in other parts of the Shard that they could pretty easily also be active in the Elim doc, in order to fake a roleblock and auto-clear himself.  So really, that interaction is pretty NAI.  I personally don't really care whether we lynch Emi or Lahilt; the coinshot can take the other one this night cycle if my Auguring doesn't pan out.  Personally, I'm more suspicious of Emi, but it's not a huge deal.

I also think that the Kandra isn't a huge issue.  The biggest problem they present is that they have a kill, and I'm pretty sure we have enough Villagers left that we can make it through losing one of them without too much trouble.  More important is finding the last Elim or two, because if we get rid of them, we win the game.  Best case scenario, there's one left and we kill them this cycle.  I don't think that's all that unlikely, frankly.  I just don't think we'll accomplish that by killing Lahilt.

I'll post a defense of Lahilt before the end of the cycle, just because.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Post.

[Magestar he/him]

Lol.  Thanks Pyro.

Ok so here's my defense of Lahilt, such as it is.  A roleclaim from them might help their case, along with some explanation of the actions they've taken.  But this seems pretty solid to me.

1.  They removed their vote from Exp, something an Elim would have almost no reason to do.  At best, it makes them look good when Exp flips village.  But they also said that Ventyl asked them to do it in a PM.  This would be very odd for an Elim.  Additionally, their focus on Ventyl asking them to do it would make it a little obvious if that were the case.  Also defended Drake, a known villager.  Post:

2.  They pushed the lynch on Ventyl a little hard, even for busing.  With the amount of inactivity or partial inactivity in the Elim team, I seriously doubt busing would be a strategy they would consider.  Especially considering the composition of the Elim team.  Ventyl, (Lahilt/Emi), and Hatz are all newer players, and I don't see Kynedath or Xino as bussing types.  The only odd thing is that Lahilt mentions this, which could have been an attempt to shield busing?  But the Elims weren't in enough trouble to worry about busing yet, IMO.  Posts:

That's just too much pressure on Ventyl for an Elim bus or distancing tactic, IMO.

3.  Villagey posts.  These two posts read village to me.  

There's also their other post about me getting in touch with the coinshot via Pyro.  It just seems like a bunch of actions which really don't make any sense for an Elim to take.  Giving reasons Ash might be clear?  Giving the village suggestions on what to do?  Not something a newbie Elim would do on their own, IMO.  

And that's basically all I've got.  Y'all can make your own decisions.  It's not a huge deal, but I'd rather lynch someone I'm suspicious of than someone I'm not, in general.  It'd be cool to have more villagers alive at the end of the game.  But it's all just icing.  I'm pretty confident we've got the game in the bag at this point.  If y'all have reasonable suspicions of Lahilt I'll gladly discuss them.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I think the reasoning for Lahilt is because there's a rumor that they have a vest, and would be tricky to coinshot.

[Magestar he/him]

2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I think the reasoning for Lahilt is because there's a rumor that they have a vest, and would be tricky to coinshot.

Yeah that's the reason I'm not putting up too much of a fight about it.  There's the chance we have trouble killing Elim!Lahilt.  It's a fair reason.

It's just also possible we kill a villager.  I figured I'd at least make mention of that fact.

edit:  Late edit, any chance of a vote count?  @StrikerEZ

Edited June 21, 2020 by Magestar

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Emi (3): Ashbringer, Lahilt, Magestar
Lahilt (2): Emi, The Young Pyromancer

This should be right.

Edited June 21, 2020 by StrikerEZ

[Mist she/her]

Didn't TJ vote for Emi? If I cause a tie, I will move my vote.

Lahilt

I believe this is correct. 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Sorry, here's a correct vote count:

Emi (4): Ashbringer, Lahilt, Magestar, TJ Shade
Lahilt (3): Emi, Mist, The Young Pyromancer