Long Game 66: A Struggle for Power

[Lahilt he/him]

I  am on a trip myself so i will not post much but, i will still try to vote. My main suspicions are ventyl and magestar if somebody wants to analyze their posts. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

Uhhh... yeah. At the very least you should have told the village that you weren't doing it...

I'll try to analyze Mage and TJ, since we seem to have forgotten about suspecting them. I'm suspicious of Ventyl again, to some degree. But both times I've lead a lynch starting on my suspicions, we missed, so I'd rather follow the grouping on this one.

...

Raow stared at the tense set of people. They had just discovered two more hunt victims around the building the humans seemed to be stuck in. For ones trapped by hunters, they didn’t seem to be focusing on escape. Raow wondered if they had their priorities messed up: he had already found at least one escape hole. Yes, it required a sewer pipe, a 11-inch diameter hole, and pitch darkness, but Raow thought that the humans could manage. It was a starting point, at least.

Raow started to paw at a person standing near the group. He was still trying to figure out what was going on, and his landlord was still here. He didn’t want to leave unless he knew why people weren’t leaving. This place was a very interesting location to live in, and Raow wanted to hang around a little bit longer. It was highly unlikely that anyone would ever pay attention to a little kitten wandering around the building. It wasn’t like anyone would think he was a Loyalist spy; he wasn’t even in the PRE roster of members*.

Raow yawned. “Mraow?” he asked, trying to get the attention of the assorted individuals. He could use a little attention sometimes. If they knew there was a kitten, they would be less inclined to notice him later. At least, Raow thought that was how it worked.

(*Again, this applies to Raow, not Faleast or me.)

[Magestar he/him]

Sorry I've been quiet this cycle so far, I had a morning shift.

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I don’t think we can have a dagger kill this turn. I don’t think that you can use an item the same turn you buy it, and no daggers were missing at the start of this night cycle. So I think the Coinshot missfired. Or maybe a Hemalurgist missfired/“miss”fired. I could see an ambitious Hemalurgist going after that Sparker ability, especially if Matrim was the Sparker Ventyl was talking about earlier (and therefore he had been sharing his role around).

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I was taking MR42 as basis for my [(33% of total players) - 1] rule, but I think that is the worst case scenario. Maybe there are 5-6 remaining by now. So it SHOULD be easy to find them, but it's not. If this doesn't change, this game won't last long. We can't afford a mislynch, and hope that the kandra and the coinshot (if they exist and are active) to hit elims in the night turn.

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

The MR is a very unique case because of the mechanics. The standard elim ratio for SE is 20-25% based on the roles and win-cons. We can probably expect 4-5 elims in this game of 23 players. My guess is probably four elims + Kandra, especially since the Kandra essentially had an extra life.

I personally was anticipating 5 Elims.  With one down, I'd say we have four remaining.  That means at the current rate of death we've still got like two or three turns left till we reach parity.  Assuming we can kill an Elim, we can probably pretty easily increase that number by a turn or so.

So... I don't think it's possible for a dagger kill to have happened, which means that it was probably a coinshot or something that did the other kill.  That's not terrible for us.  It means there's probably a village coinshot.  Kind of a weird choice, if they picked Matrim, but if they picked Elkanah it was pretty solid.  Killing inactives isn't terrible for us.  I would have gone for Kynedath, but that's just my personal suspicion.

45 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I'll try to analyze Mage and TJ, since we seem to have forgotten about suspecting them. I'm suspicious of Ventyl again, to some degree. But both times I've lead a lynch starting on my suspicions, we missed, so I'd rather follow the grouping on this one.

I've analyzed TJ previously, and the only weird thing I found in all their posts was one instance where they'd said "Wow, what happened while I was gone?" an acted surprised by something when I know they were on at rollover because I was keeping track.  That's really it.

I'd love to see some analysis on me.  I think that the reason I'm not suspicious is because I've put a little too much time and analysis for my playstyle if I was an Elim.  I've also acted in ways that don't make a lot of sense for an Elim.

I'll try and get on later and post some analysis.  We'll see how I feel.

[|TJ| he/him]

10 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I've analyzed TJ previously, and the only weird thing I found in all their posts was one instance where they'd said "Wow, what happened while I was gone?" an acted surprised by something when I know they were on at rollover because I was keeping track.  That's really it.

Yeah, well I was at the rollover, but all the major voting changes happened while I was gone, right? I was just checking on the posts I missed while I was gone, and when I caught up it was past the rollover time. 

Yeah, I'd like to clear any suspicion anyone might have on me. I've really tried to analyse thoroughly and my suspicions are honest. I do not think I've been partial or gone easy on anyone. If the said people have given convincing reasons, I've moved them down my suspect list. If I haven't said anything about them, they haven't done anything suspicious in my eyes. I do have some suspects that I'd like to keep close to my chest to see how they react to stuff before they realize they are suspects.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I keep getting Elkanah and Elandra mixed up in my brain...

Here goes some analysis!

@Magestar: Mage seems to be one of the more experienced in this group, along with Pyro/Elandera and some of the deceased players like Matrim/Araris... actually, it seems like we've been killing off a lot of the experienced players, haven't we... Anyway, he's more experienced, although he repeatedly highlighted how rusty he was.

D1 he posted a few small posts theorizing about Kandra, roles, and D1 shenanigans. He also said he'd only try and post suspicions he was very sure of. Slightly suspicious of Xino (not enough to vote) and voted on Coda. N1 tried to figure out who were the specific vote manipulators, but dismissed it mostly as storing. C1 Araris read Mage as Elim (as well as XP and Kyndeth), which may mean something as a hedging Kandra and since Araris turned up dead the next night.

D2 was suspicious of Araris, mainly due to the lack of suspicions he gave, which adds to what I said about N1. Also supicious of me and Drake to some degree. Drake was suspicious of Mage as well. He was confused by the XP lynch train, and seemed very concerned about moving it to Drake. I'm not sure why, unless he knew of XP's potent Lurcher role. Inactive N2, but Araris, who was an Elim!Mage pusher, died.

D3 was suspicious of Kyndeth. Seemed very confused by my whole Ventyl-catching plot, which... was very confusing at the time. Wanted us to slow it down a bit. Briefly agreed to join a Ventyl lynch if Striker confirmed the Boxing limit wasn't active, but that didn't go anywhere either. Agreed very quickly to move the lynch to XP for information. Very quiet N3, but so was everyone else.

 

I'd also like to note two things: one, that Mage was the one wondering why I wanted to know why Drake thought I was village, and is now asking for analysis from a group who thinks he's village. Also, while Mage predicted that there would be a lot of kill survivors in this game due to Lurchers/Thugs/Brutes/Bloodmakers, we haven't had a single person survive anything this game . NAI, but kinda funny.

(Bonus! Kyndeth was very active D1 but very not active for the rest of this game.)

 

My main worry is that of the most active of us (Mage, TJ, Pyro, Ash) someone's probably going to be an Elim. I know it's not me, and I don't think it's Pyro, so you two are suspects. Not suspects I want to use a lynch on to possibly cripple Village discussion, but suspects to watch. And both of the main people who suspected Mage at some point (Araris and Drake) ended up dead soon after.

Main possible lynch targets for me are Ventyl and maybe Mage. @Ventyl, is your roleset really identical to the one Elkanah had? You didn't mention anything about that in your post here, and I'm beginning to wonder if you have a bunch of Steel traps saved up.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Ashbringer
tags

[Magestar he/him]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I keep getting Elkanah and Elandra mixed up in my brain...

Here goes some analysis!

@Magestar: Mage seems to be one of the more experienced in this group, along with Pyro/Elandera and some of the deceased players like Matrim/Araris... actually, it seems like we've been killing off a lot of the experienced players, haven't we... Anyway, he's more experienced, although he repeatedly highlighted how rusty he was.

D1 he posted a few small posts theorizing about Kandra, roles, and D1 shenanigans. He also said he'd only try and post suspicions he was very sure of. Slightly suspicious of Xino (not enough to vote) and voted on Coda. N1 tried to figure out who were the specific vote manipulators, but dismissed it mostly as storing. C1 Araris read Mage as Elim (as well as XP and Kyndeth), which may mean something as a hedging Kandra and since Araris turned up dead the next night.

D2 was suspicious of Araris, mainly due to the lack of suspicions he gave, which adds to what I said about N1. Also supicious of me and Drake to some degree. Drake was suspicious of Mage as well. He was confused by the XP lynch train, and seemed very concerned about moving it to Drake. I'm not sure why, unless he knew of XP's potent Lurcher role. Inactive N2, but Araris, who was an Elim!Mage pusher, died.

D3 was suspicious of Kyndeth. Seemed very confused by my whole Ventyl-catching plot, which... was very confusing at the time. Wanted us to slow it down a bit. Briefly agreed to join a Ventyl lynch if Striker confirmed the Boxing limit wasn't active, but that didn't go anywhere either. Agreed very quickly to move the lynch to XP for information. Very quiet N3, but so was everyone else.

 

I'd also like to note two things: one, that Mage was the one wondering why I wanted to know why Drake thought I was village, and is now asking for analysis from a group who thinks he's village. Also, while Mage predicted that there would be a lot of kill survivors in this game due to Lurchers/Thugs/Brutes/Bloodmakers, we haven't had a single person survive anything this game . NAI, but kinda funny.

(Bonus! Kyndeth was very active D1 but very not active for the rest of this game.)

 

My main worry is that of the most active of us (Mage, TJ, Pyro, Ash) someone's probably going to be an Elim. I know it's not me, and I don't think it's Pyro, so you two are suspects. Not suspects I want to use a lynch on to possibly cripple Village discussion, but suspects to watch. And both of the main people who suspected Mage at some point (Araris and Drake) ended up dead soon after.

Main possible lynch targets for me are Ventyl and maybe Mage. @Ventyl, is your roleset really identical to the one Elkanah had? You didn't mention anything about that in your post here, and I'm beginning to wonder if you have a bunch of Steel traps saved up.

Not gonna lie it feels kinda weird being one of the more experienced players.

I feel a little tiny bit insulted by the idea that I would kill Araris just because they said they were suspicious of me.    It's not a wicked smart move, and there wasn't enough pressure from Araris that I'd have killed him if I was an Elim.

Drake I don't even remember suspecting me.  I did do the lynch train on him... I legitimately thought that he was an Elim.  Not sure what else to say about that.  I thought Drake, you, and Pyro were a possible Elim team.  I still don't know about you and Pyro, but Drake being village would have lowered my suspicions of you two slightly, had you not also voted on Drake.  That was confusing to me.  I'm not terribly suspicious of Pyro or TJ, but my "village reads" list looks more like a "Who am I least certain is an Elim" list.

The XP lynch... I pushed it as a counter to the other two lynches at the time, which were running unopposed.  Ideally, we'd have gotten it to the point of a random lynch.  Mist's vote kind of ruined that.

As far as the NAI stuff goes, yeah that's kinda funny.    To be fair, we have did lynch both a lurcher and a bloodmaker; they were just the same person.   

I don't necessarily disagree that the likelihood that there's an Elim among the most active is fairly high, but I think it's also important to remember that fairly often, the temptation to hang back and not solve the game is fairly high as an Elim.  Players who are really actively analyzing and providing good reasoning seem less Elim to me.  This can turn into a bit of an IKYK, but I think it's also worth looking at players who are kind of hanging back.  I'm thinking of players like Mist and Emi, who are both fairly active outside this game, but don't post in it all that much.  The same was kind of true for Xinom who did turn out to be an Elim.  Karnage is similar but to a lesser extent.  Players like The God King and Elkanah are less suspicious, because they were actually inactive everywhere.  Idk though.  There's not a whole lot to go on for those players.  It's part of what makes it such an effective strategy.

I don't know who I'm going to vote on yet.  I guess I'll decide later.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Yeah, it's less of "I think you're an Elim" and more "of the four of us, you're most likely the Elim, but who knows". I think it's better to look through the others, but I'm hesitant to assume we have the Village core of activity entirely on our side when we've been wrong so often. (Also, I was trying to do TJ at the same time, but that would have made a very long, Boxing-inefficient post .)

Hmm. That would make it twice that Mist broke a tie, wouldn't it...

 

Anyway, RP. I need Boxings.

Faleast stood up. “I have something I think we should discuss,” he said, looking at the assembled PRE members. “We’ve mainly been led by a group of four. Pyria [Pyro?], Reginald, TJ, and myself. Well, we haven’t been getting very far in finding any Loyalists. We’ve all said our pieces, but I think it may be time for someone new to take the lead. I don’t know if among our group there is a Loyalist or merely misguided leaders, and I don’t want to name any names as guilty parties. But it’s obvious that if something should change in our results, we need something to change within our methods.”

Faleast looked past the three surprised leaders and to the main crowd. “So, while I have my own suspicions that I have and will continue to voice, I’d like for others to begin voicing their concerns, their suspicions, and their votes. I don’t like so many surprises. And I’m tired. So, lets see what happens with what we all have, rather than just a few.”

Faleast took a few steps backward, joining the crowd. Suddenly he felt a tugging at his ankles. He looked down and saw… a…

“Hello there,” he said, trying to squat down and reach the little kitten. He pet its back – it had a bumpy spine, but had very soft fur. “Now where did you come from?”

[Elandera she/her]

5 hours ago, Magestar said:

I personally was anticipating 5 Elims.  With one down, I'd say we have four remaining.  That means at the current rate of death we've still got like two or three turns left till we reach parity.  Assuming we can kill an Elim, we can probably pretty easily increase that number by a turn or so.

You're probably right. I forgot to take into account the kill mechanics available to the villagers that would likely put the elim team on the higher end of the percentage balance. 

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I keep getting Elkanah and Elandra mixed up in my brain...

Me too, Ash, me too. It was worse when Elkanah, Elbereth, and I all played in a game together. Too many Els. I'm thinking of a name change, but I'm not sure I want to abandon the clan of Els.

On to relevant things. We're about 24 hours into the turn and no one has cast a single vote. Do not get discouraged, village! We still have a chance to win. Unfortunately, I won't have time for an in-depth analysis until later (I have to DM a D&D campaign for which I am woefully under-prepared). 

Until then, Magestar. I have had a village read on you, but for the life of me, I don't know why. That makes me super suspicious. Don't worry too much. I won't leave my vote here unless I can find a reason.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Magestar’s one of my top kandra suspects, so if the vote swings their way, I’d be fine with that.

[Karnage]

I still really don't have time so i think that I'll vote on Magestar

I am so sorry for the short post but I am really tired from work.

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I don’t really want to lynch Mage without much in the way of evidence, although I’m probably willing to jump on any train that developes on a good candidate. With the two different Leechers dead and no “confirmation” I’m back to very suspicious of Ventyl again. But I’ll hold off posting a vote for now, especially because it’s been a really quiet last few days and I want to see if any inactives come back to say their pieces and make their votes.

But if we lynch an Elim suspect and find the Kandra, then I suppose that’s better than a Village mislynch. But at this point, if we really are 1-2 turns from lylo, then the Kandra will have to start hunting down Elims, so lynching the Kandra now may not be the best plan for the Village.

Aaaaand I’m ninjad by two different people. Fantastic!

Elandra and Karnage, and other semi-inactive players, do you guys have any non-Mage reads? I was trying to make a point that we should avoid following the same people for lynch trains, not that we should all lynch Mage based on my reasoning on why he’s slightly more suspicious than TJ or Pyro in my opinion. 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

I’m going to make some analysis tomorrow, but I’ve been taking a break from the game, if anyone is wondering why I haven’t been that active.

[Magestar he/him]

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

Until then, Magestar. I have had a village read on you, but for the life of me, I don't know why. That makes me super suspicious. Don't worry too much. I won't leave my vote here unless I can find a reason.

It's natural to be suspicious of me, I guess, if you feel you've somehow been manipulated into trusting me.  I thank you for being willing to go looking for a reason before committing to lynching me.    As for not worrying, the number of people who've professed suspicion of me makes it a little late for that.

To the rest of you, and anyone who becomes suspicious of me: before committing to lynching me, I'd advise looking over my posts.  You'll find the reason you trust me - or the reason to trust me if you don't yet - is that I haven't done anything Eliminator-y, and that the things I have done wouldn't make sense for an Eliminator to do.

You should also ask yourself what you'd learn from lynching me.  If you find that I'm both suspicious and would provide valuable information that will help you find Eliminators, I won't really mind being lynched.

(I tell a lie. I will mind.    I'll actually be kinda ticked off lol.  Because you'll be wrong.  And because I'm not that good of a villager.  )

But at least I'll understand where you're coming from.  The problem I think you'll face in hoping I'll provide information, and the problem I'm facing at the moment, is that most of the people I've put forth suspicion of have either died or been cleared to some extent.  The other people I've put forth suspicion of don't seem to be very lynchable, I.E Kynedath and Ash.  

I said I'd try to get some more analysis out before the end of the cycle, and I still hope to.  I'm not working tomorrow, so I'm going to try and spend some time on SE.  For now, I'll throw a vote on Mist.  I don't have any real reasoning yet besides the fact that they're sort of quiet and they've broken a couple ties in weird ways.  If Mist is an Elim I'd be less sus of Kynedath, and more sus of Karnage.  That's all I've got for now.    I'll be back on in the morning.

Edited June 14, 2020 by Magestar

[Ashbringer he/him]

I think Kynedath is lynchable. Same with maybe Mist. I don’t think that Ash guy is, though. That seems like a bad idea.

Jokes aside, my analysis of TJ will probably find something a lot similar to you, Mage - a lot of coincidences, but overshadowed by a lot of (mostly) good analysis and Villager actions. That’s why I’d rather lynch someone that I’m more suspicious of first.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

There's been so much inactivity this game it's really hard to root out elims; lowering the bar for activity makes it easier for elims to hide. Right now, I think the best path to victory here is coming up with some kind of mechanical method to victory.

I'll look over the roles and try to figure something out. @Elandera, you seemed good with mechanics. Care to help?

[Elandera she/her]

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

As for not worrying, the number of people who've professed suspicion of me makes it a little late for that

Hmm. The only suspicion I remember seeing of you before my vote was really Pyro's suspicion you were a Kandra. I realize now Ash was also minorly suspicious (I've barely been skimming the thread the last few days), but the following vote from Karnage seems opportunistic. While I realize some of my initial logic of being suspicious of them because of Xino's posts is flawed, their actions afterward are still odd. I'd be willing for a vote there instead.

43 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

There's been so much inactivity this game it's really hard to root out elims; lowering the bar for activity makes it easier for elims to hide. Right now, I think the best path to victory here is coming up with some kind of mechanical method to victory.

I'll look over the roles and try to figure something out. @Elandera, you seemed good with mechanics. Care to help?

I'll do some studying tonight to see what I can come up with, but I'm better with analytics than mechanics. This also reminds me I had wanted to look closer at Xino's role analysis posts to see if he may have left clues as to possible elim team comp.

On 6/12/2020 at 9:57 PM, Ashbringer said:

Also, Elkanah was a Village Leecher. Is it odd for there to be two Village Leechers? Because Ventyl is supposed to be a Village Leecher. And he has bought at least one and possibly multiple Steel Traps.

It is possible, but that does give the village a fair amount of roleblocks, especially if you consider the possibility of a coinshot and the items. That's a ton of roleblocking potential. I wouldn't be opposed to a Ventyl lynch. Yes, I know I'm contradicting my earlier statements of not lynching for the role, but I am curious why a village Misting would buy steel traps that do essentially the same function as their ability. It would seem more prudent to save money and try to buy something else that you can't do with your ability. 

Xino's post that included analysis about a Leecher:

Quote

A roleblock. Another village power role- potentially even more powerful in this game, due to the actions that cause weakening. I have questions about this similar to that of a Pulser- what happens if the target takes multiple actions on the cycle you target them? What about the turn? Does the Leeching action need to share a cycle with the target action, or just the turn?

It was one of the few he actually asked questions about rather than just stating opinion. He called it a village power role, which seems like odd phrasing. It would also be an elim power role with all of the other kills and roleblocks floating around. Based on this, it's quite possible he knew there was a Leecher on his team.

On 6/12/2020 at 10:16 PM, Ashbringer said:

I was more thinking that Ventyl claims exactly Village Leecher, with no extra roles, which would make him identical to Elkanah. (Or at least, he claimed in my PM not to be a Feruchemist. Could be Thief/Hemalurgist.) But yeah, I forgot about Reading also being a Leecher.

Wait, you're right. If Reading was also a Leecher, Ventyl being one would make three Village Leechers, which is waaaaayyyy too many, even in a game this size. 

Magestar Ventyl

[Walin he/him]

I didn't get roleblocked by Ventyl, though I didn't use any Allomantic power (sorry).

Uh, and since I still haven't looked through the game like I said I would, nor plotted out anything, I'll be making half my claim here. I'm a Copper Misting (hence not using it last night, though I forgot it could be used because I hadn't used my Feruchemical action. Good luck, all!

[|TJ| he/him]

Gahh, why are we lynching kandra suspects? We really need their kill in N4. Can we not lynch kandra suspects till D5? 

Coming to the active 4, I'd say my most suspicious is Ashbringer. They could be playing us like a fiddle under the pretense of being a new player. I call this Sareneding, after Sarene from Elantris. It's the act of appearing less smart/intelligent OR more confused than you actually are to fool others. Again, as they are active and I really don't want the game to grow more quieter, I'd reserve lynching them for later. 

After Ashbringer, it would be Magestar. I don't agree with Ash that they could be hasty to kill a player who merely stated their suspicion on them without reasoning. If they were getting solid evidence, that would be another matter, but at that point it was pure conjecture from Araris. Also, the conversation between Araris and Magestar seemed a little banter-ish and opposing? I see this as a distancing tactic used by Araris to allay suspicion from Magestar as the future kandra. They remain a perfect candidate for kandra, but again it seems like an obvious choice, so I really don't know if Araris would have gone that way. For the aforementioned reason of requiring kandra kill, I do not want to lynch them for the fear of being kandra, at least till D5. There have been too many opposing accusations and votes between Ashbringer and Magestar for both of them to be elim, I believe.

Pyro's chaotic play was extremely confusing and had me doubting him for a while, but his outrage on the lynches of Coda and Drake seem genuine. There's not much to read into, other than his attempts to save Coda and Drake. But attempts to save 2 villagers seems villager-y. I wouldn't be surprised if he did manage to pocket Drake and Coda though. Just that he's least likely to be an elim among the three of you.

I've been suspicious about Mist for awhile. Her playing style has been extremely similar to the one in MR. She was shrewd and analytical in the elim doc, so I find no reason not to do that in-thread (not sure if I'm allowed to draw conclusions from other games, please correct me if it's wrong). @Mist, could you explain your reasoning behind the vote on Kynedath on D2, and the votes on Hatz and Experience on D1 and D3 respectively, which were last minute votes to break the tie?

PS: @StrikerEZ, thoughts to give multiple boxings to posts with word counts in the multiple of 200? Sometimes it makes more sense to put all your thoughts in a single post rather than splitting it for the sake of boxings, but it makes it unfair for those who do that. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Elandera and Walin. Ventyl has been suspicious and making too much of an attempt to appease the villagers. @Ventyl if you did not use your actions on Walin, did you at least use it on someone you suspected? What of the Steel Trap? What did you do with it?

Edited June 14, 2020 by TJ Shade
Ninja

[Lahilt he/him]

I am actually less suspicious of Ashbringer and TJ Shade at the moment. Again I don't really have time to go back through the thread and examine why I have this reasoning, maybe it's just the vibes  but I would really hate seeing one of these players get lynched. I will go with my number one suspect again Ventyl again for this round  

 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Alright, as promised here is my almost post by post analysis of @Magestar. If you don’t want to read the whole thing, scroll to the bottom of the post!

————————————————————————————————————————

• Starts of with some RP, then says that they don’t think the Kandra is going to be a big hindrance to the village. The talk more about the role until they say that the thief seems like a more powerful role. I’d say this is mostly NAI, seems to be just basic role analysis.
• More talk about the Kandra, says they don’t it’s a body swap mechanic . Then more general role analysis, still pretty NAI.
• Says they won’t defended themselves from Cycle one accusations, this makes sense. Also says they won’t post reads unless they know for sure that they have the elim team pinned down. The reasoning being that they’d just change their behavior, well couldn’t we look for that behavior change? Seems slight elim, but I’d give a more village read on it in reality.
• Says they’d want a lynch train. This is pretty village in my opinion, because if you think somebody is an elim, you’d want enough votes on them so that vote manipulation couldn’t save them.
• Says that the elims would want us the keep talking about the kandra instead of looking for them. Just like in my analysis of Araris, I think anyone who tries to give helpful advice like this is village. Though this could be a elim play to look village, but I’ll give it a village read.
• Votes on Ash, saying they’d rather vote on someone who they have suspicions of than Karnage. Says they don’t like that they tried so to push for Kandra discussion. This seems village to me, but I always like to clarify that anything could be an elim trying to distance themselves from what people are giving others elim reads for.
• Asks a few people if their roles could’ve removed their votes on Hatz. Elim trying gather information from the village? He does try to convince them that it shouldn’t be to revealing, but I think anyone can do a little investigation and figure out someone’s likely role. Slight elim read on this one.
• In response to Drake he says he doesn’t think claiming that your role removed your vote is RI (new acronym? Role Indicative). Seems like in elim trying to persuade the village into giving the elims hints about their roles so they can narrow it down.
• Claims to be twinborn in thread. Also talks about village coinshot, theorizes if they’re inactive or cautious. Seems like it could be an elim trying to get information and find out if anyone is a coinshot. I doubt this though, so this is a village read for me.
• Does an analysis on Pyro, NAI to me. Then later asks for my thoughts on the game, which I give. Says they’d love to hear an real evidence on Karnage. Worried about an elim diversion. I don’t think an elim would point out that they did a diversion, so slight village.
• Responds to Drake about asking him to vote Ashbringer. States their worries of an elim diversion again and their suspicions of Ashbringer. Still a little village to me for the same reason.
• Gives a village read on Araris. Says their views on the game line up. Not really elim, but could be a possible Kandra as Araris might have wanted to make some one with similar views the next Kandra?
• Says they want to get Ash lynched. Wants feedback on their votes. Slight elim, but mostly NAI.
• Says they don’t agree with the Experience lynch, village read based on how Experience flipped.
• Gives advice about not voting, as always when it comes to giving very good advice, this gives me a village read. Gives an analysis of Drake that reads slight village, as they want the information from it.
• Responds to Drake, this does seem elim to me, as it sounds like they’d be fine with a mislynch if it meant they’d get better reads and if it meant it’d make them seem less suspicious. I disagree, although I do admit that mislynches give information that can be valuable, every dead villager brings the elims closer to winning.
• Says they’d wish that Drake had been elim. Drake flipping village apparently messed up his reads. Village vibes, but not too many village vibes
• Responds to Pyro’s accusation of being a Kandra. Seems like they are trying to convince people they aren’t Kandra, which could be true. But it could just be them trying to make people think they aren’t...
• Voices their suspicion of Kynedath, slight village.
• Says they aren’t suspicious of Experience, slight village. Gives thoughts on the Kandra, NAI. Defends me so of course I’ll have to give a village read.
• Says they’d vote on me if boxing cap wasn’t activated, but it was so I don’t think they voted on me. Another village read.
• Gives up on the Kynedath lynch and brings up an Ashbringer lynch or an Experience lynch. Seems NAI to me, but I’m not sure.
• This post in response to Elandera gives me NAI vibes in the first half. In the second half I get elim vibes, because he says he doesn’t care about who gets lynched, but in a previous post (I don’t think I’ve mentioned it) he says the elims wouldn’t care which villager gets lynched. Which is exactly what he he’s doing.
• Votes on Experience, NAI, but could be elim considering how they flipped.
• Explains that his vote on Experience is for information. It seems village to me, but I also don’t like lynching for that reason alone.
• Kind of defends me? Says that Experience will give more information at death than I would.
• States some of their reads. This is different than their previous play style, could be an elim trying act more like a villager, but it also couldn’t so NAI
• Theorizes about the number of elims, and says that there is definitely a village coinshot. They say they would’ve gone for Kynedath, could this be a distancing tactic? I think this is either NAI or slight elim.
• Talks about their village reads. Also talks about how it’s likely for elims to sit back and not post much to make it harder for people to get reads on them.
• Points out that they haven’t done anything elim-y, which seems like a totally elim move. What better way to convince people them to say that you haven’t done anything elim-y. So I’m starting to think that he’s a really good a elim, in that he’s great at pretending to be a villager.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————

TL:DR, Most of Magestar’s post all seem to be village, but his most recent one (at the time of this post) bring up the possibility of him purposefully not doing anything suspicious. There is also the possibility that he’s the new Kandra, which in my opinion is probably more likely than him being an elim. But I think both reasons could be good to lynch him, though I do think we shouldn’t worry about the Kandra more than the elims. Yes, it would make sense to kill it, but also the elim kills are more guaranteed that a Kandra kill. 

 

EDIT: Here’s a vote count for anyone wondering.

Magestar (2): Karnage, Ventyl
Ventyl (3): Elandera, TJ Shade, Lahilt
Mist (1): Magestar

Also someone post so I can make a response to my possible lynch.  

Edited June 14, 2020 by Ventyl

[Magestar he/him]

16 hours ago, Elandera said:

Hmm. The only suspicion I remember seeing of you before my vote was really Pyro's suspicion you were a Kandra. I realize now Ash was also minorly suspicious (I've barely been skimming the thread the last few days), but the following vote from Karnage seems opportunistic. While I realize some of my initial logic of being suspicious of them because of Xino's posts is flawed, their actions afterward are still odd. I'd be willing for a vote there instead.

Well, by the time I made that post, there were suspicions on me from you, Pyro, Karnage, and Ash, which is four people, and three of the more active people left.  So I personally felt like it was reasonable to begin worrying.   

Speaking of opportunistic voting...  I've started to go over some of Pyro's posts - a rather difficult task given the shear volume - and I'm noticing that most of their votes are on people who've already been voted on, and, similar to Karnage's vote this cycle, seem a little opportunistic.  I'm not sure if this is necessarily anything new for Pyro... I'd love if someone else could analyze them, since I really don't trust myself to do it properly.

16 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

After Ashbringer, it would be Magestar. I don't agree with Ash that they could be hasty to kill a player who merely stated their suspicion on them without reasoning. If they were getting solid evidence, that would be another matter, but at that point it was pure conjecture from Araris. Also, the conversation between Araris and Magestar seemed a little banter-ish and opposing? I see this as a distancing tactic used by Araris to allay suspicion from Magestar as the future kandra. They remain a perfect candidate for kandra, but again it seems like an obvious choice, so I really don't know if Araris would have gone that way. For the aforementioned reason of requiring kandra kill, I do not want to lynch them for the fear of being kandra, at least till D5. There have been too many opposing accusations and votes between Ashbringer and Magestar for both of them to be elim, I believe.

I'm not quite sure what you're saying.  It kind of sounds like you're saying I'm unlikely to be an Elim, but that I'd make a good candidate for Kandra because of stuff Araris did.  So there's really not a lot I can say about that.  I'd love to be able to prove I'm not a kandra with my roles, but neither of my abilities are very provable, as they both only effect me.  I hesitate to reveal much more, because I feel like it'd be not so great if the Elims knew my abilities.

5 hours ago, Ventyl said:

TL:DR, Most of Magestar’s post all seem to be village, but his most recent one (at the time of this post) bring up the possibility of him purposefully not doing anything suspicious. There is also the possibility that he’s the new Kandra, which in my opinion is probably more likely than him being an elim. But I think both reasons could be good to lynch him, though I do think we shouldn’t worry about the Kandra more than the elims. Yes, it would make sense to kill it, but also the elim kills are more guaranteed that a Kandra kill. 

So... I could go through and talk about all the problems with the reasons you're suspicious of me, but I think I'll just hit the root issue, which is that you want to lynch me because I seem so village that I must be tricking you.  That's a little ridiculous to me.  I don't even think there's really anything to defend.

Anyway, I'd be up for a lynch on Ventyl or Karnage, in addition to my other suspicions.  If the lynch on Mist doesn't take off I'll probably add my vote to Ventyl at this point.  Wouldn't mind a vote count.

Edited June 14, 2020 by Magestar

[Ashbringer he/him]

Walin, if you filled or tapped a metalmind last night, that can also be Roleblocked. Or any action that isn't buying anything from the Black market. However, it does seem like Ventyl didn't actually roleblock, so that's probably moot. There's a few other things about Ventyl that I find suspicious, namely Matrim's death.

For one thing, Matrim was the one that stated the whisper whisper inc was meant to be a way to incriminate me. While I doubt that revenge is a good plan for an Elim, there is another thing: Matrim was a Sparker, when Ventyl said that he knew a Sparker who could verify his role. Well, it appears that Ventyl now has no Roleblock present or Sparker available to confirm that he is a Leecher. If Matrim was working toward investigating Ventyl, now he can't tell us anything.

(If any other whisper whisper inc members want to confirm if Matrim roleclaimed in that thread or to Ventyl personally, that would be good to know, although I'm not sure how that would alter any of my suspicions.)

I'm probably very tunneling on Ventyl right now, but he's the only person here who I see as suspicious both from reading posts and from just the data and claims that we have.

Edit: Ninja'd by Mage... ish. But I don't think to any real effect, besides that I agree that the main suspicions of Mage are "Could be Kandra" and "is too Village-y". Well, like TJ said we don't really want to lynch the Kandra today because it would essentially lose us a kill N4, and "is too Village" is an awful reason to lynch someone. Although it would be morbidly funny if the Village lynches Mage for being too innocent before I get killed for all my new-player conspiracies .

Edited June 14, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

42 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Walin, if you filled or tapped a metalmind last night, that can also be Roleblocked. Or any action that isn't buying anything from the Black market. However, it does seem like Ventyl didn't actually roleblock, so that's probably moot. There's a few other things about Ventyl that I find suspicious, namely Matrim's death.

For one thing, Matrim was the one that stated the whisper whisper inc was meant to be a way to incriminate me. While I doubt that revenge is a good plan for an Elim, there is another thing: Matrim was a Sparker, when Ventyl said that he knew a Sparker who could verify his role. Well, it appears that Ventyl now has no Roleblock present or Sparker available to confirm that he is a Leecher. If Matrim was working toward investigating Ventyl, now he can't tell us anything.

(If any other whisper whisper inc members want to confirm if Matrim roleclaimed in that thread or to Ventyl personally, that would be good to know, although I'm not sure how that would alter any of my suspicions.)

I'm probably very tunneling on Ventyl right now, but he's the only person here who I see as suspicious both from reading posts and from just the data and claims that we have.

Edit: Ninja'd by Mage... ish. But I don't think to any real effect, besides that I agree that the main suspicions of Mage are "Could be Kandra" and "is too Village-y". Well, like TJ said we don't really want to lynch the Kandra today because it would essentially lose us a kill N4, and "is too Village" is an awful reason to lynch someone. Although it would be morbidly funny if the Village lynches Mage for being too innocent before I get killed for all my new-player conspiracies .

If I was an elim, why would I want to kill Matrim? The only Sparker that I know can confirm my role? I fail to see how this is a valid argument against me. Any player would know that this would be a great way to get outed as an elim, and if you honestly think I’m stupid enough to make that move if I was an elim, I’m offended. Another possibility is an elim!Coinshot that wants to get a mislynch on me so they killed Mat and Elkanah, one with the elim kill and the other with the coinshot kill. Though this has only a slight chance of being the case, because two elim kills seems broken. Anyways, after this post it seems like you really want my mislynch so Magestar I won’t vote on you. I’ll vote on Ashbringer as it seems like they’re an elim just trying to find some sort of way to make me seem like an elim. 

6 hours ago, Lahilt said:

I am actually less suspicious of Ashbringer and TJ Shade at the moment. Again I don't really have time to go back through the thread and examine why I have this reasoning, maybe it's just the vibes  but I would really hate seeing one of these players get lynched. I will go with my number one suspect again Ventyl again for this round  

 

The main reason I voted on Experience and then took my vote off and asked you to do so to was so I could hopefully misdirect the elims from my suspicion of Ashbringer. Before I saw Ash’s post I was going to make this post saying that I didn’t see it necessary to hide my previous suspicions because I thought he wasn’t an elim anymore. Though, now I’m not so sure that he’s village. I said earlier that I think the Elims are way more dangerous than the Kandra, so I think we can save a lynch on Magestar for another time. 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————

I’ll roleblock @Walin this cycle if I don’t die, so I hope you don’t have any elim outing plans for this day turn. If you do, PM or say it in thread and I won’t roleblock you. I’ll find someone else to roleblock if that’s the case. Also Ashbringer, I only have one Steel Trap, I wouldn’t have ever had enough boxings to buy a second one. I’m sure somebody can do the calculations for my boxings and verify this. 

In general I do agree that a lynch on me will give some information, but considering I’ve had limited interactions with other players I think an Ashbringer lynch would give a lot more information about a lot more players. Namely the people in SHOUTY SHOUT AGENCY!!!. If they flips vilage, then I die the next the next day anyway. If they flip elim then we get information about Pyro and the others they’ve been having semi-consistent interactions with, I can’t remember them of the top of my head, but I know there is a few.

EDIT: Another vote count.

Ventyl (4): Elandera, TJ Shade, Lahilt, Ashbrigner
Magestar (1): Karnage
Mist (1): Magestar
Ashbringer (1): Ventyl

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Ventyl

[|TJ| he/him]

Hold up, something doesn't seem right. I just noticed Ventyl changed their vote from Experience to Drake during D2. That..doesn't really make sense if they were elim. Why would an elim make a village to village shift in the last moment? Doesn't seem elim-y. They are at least making an attempt to prove something, though it comes off as appeasing the villagers. I will wait for a defence them and Mist before deciding whether I should change my vote to Mist. Can't help but smell a mislynch this time too. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Ventyl. If Mist do not provide a defence, I'm seriously considering switching my vote to them.

Edit 2 :

12 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

 @Ventyl if you did not use your actions on Walin, did you at least use it on someone you suspected? What of the Steel Trap? What did you do with it?

Can you answer these questions @Ventyl?

17 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I’ll roleblock @Walin this cycle if I don’t die, so I hope you don’t have any elim outing plans for this day turn. If you do, PM or say it in thread and I won’t roleblock you. I’ll find someone else to roleblock if that’s the case. Also Ashbringer, I only have one Steel Trap, I wouldn’t have ever had enough boxings to buy a second one. I’m sure somebody can do the calculations for my boxings and verify this. 

I thought I already told proving your role is not going to help us at all. Please do not waste your actions.
@Ashbringer, why are you so eager to waste his actions and find out his role? Him proving he wasn't lying is role does not help us. Like, at all. 
Rusts, we're already making the assumption that if he is Leecher he must be elim since 3 village Leecher is not feasible. So if he proves us his role and he ends up as Leecher, then what? Lynch him then too? If he's lying, then what? It's a die-die situation for him. Really don't understand why you're pushing so hard for him to prove his role.

Edit 3: Looks like I'll be going off and won't be back till around the rollover. If Mist doesn't post by then, I probably will not be moving my vote back to Ventyl.

Edited June 14, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Ashbringer he/him]

Hmm. Because at this point, I'm less suspicious of Ventyl being an Elim!Leecher and more suspicious of him not being a Leecher at all. But I really have no idea; it's just a gut feeling/read. Something about our interactions is very off, but I can see how impossible it is to see which end it comes from, or whether it's just two defensive people in a sticky situation.

I mainly want Ventyl to prove his role because he said he would prove his role, both by Leeching Walin and by trying to get a Sparker to scan him. And it appears that the Sparker was Elim killed and Walin wasn't Roleblocked, so neither method that Ventyl proposed to prove himself got off the ground.

I don't know. You had no reason to say you knew a Sparker in the first place unless it was either a real way to prove your role or some desperate gambit to save yourself from the lynch, but the fact that we still don't have anyone to confirm your role is suspicious to me.

Finally, the SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY is almost completely RP, as the minutes have shown. I'm sure the members can back me up on that if it is deemed necessary.

I hope that explains something.