Long Game 54: Cognitive Diversions

[Snipexe]

4 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

My apologies all, I’ve had a very busy day and likely an even busier night. I’ll try catching up on PMs now and I’ll get a post up later tonight, hopefully. 

Does anyone have a vote count? 

I’m on mobile rn and it’s super bright so I might have missed something but:

Lumgol(1): Levitaph

Fifth Scholar(1): Sart

Shqueeves(1): Fifth Scholar,

Dapper(1): Ark1002

Ark1002(1): Dapper

[Fifth Scholar]

Alright, I don’t like that tie...

Shqueeves if I haven’t done so already and Lumgol. Nothing against you right now, Lum, I just suspect you most out of those five and am using this as a placeholder in case my work leaves me completely incapable of checking the thread tonight. 

[DeTess]

It looks like this is going to be one of those cycles where all the interesting stuff happens after I've gone to bed. I don't think a lynch on Dapper is warranted at this point given his apparent new-ness. I'm having trouble finding insights to share, so it doesn't surprise me much that a newer player would find little to share as well. @Ark1002, what changed your opinion about Dapper exactly? Lumgol himself stated that his opinions were not exactly rock solid.

I really don't have any good reasons to vote on anyone right now, nor do I have the time or energy to go hunting before this cycle is over. Right now I'm leaning slightly village on Snip and Devotary regarding their sharing of their crafting work, but that's hardly a firm read, while I've got a minor suspicion of Levitaph for reasons shared earlier, and I don't think Lumgol's vote on Dapper is warranted this cycle given Dapper being a rather new player. I'm going to refrain from voting this cycle, as I really can't justify any vote right now.

[+Ark1002]

Yes, it does. So, uh.

Dapper Lumgol

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

14 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

I’m on mobile rn and it’s super bright so I might have missed something but:

There were two votes on Dapper, so the current vote tally is 
Lumgol(3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark
Dapper(1): Lumgol
Fifth(1): Sart
Ark(1): Dapper

I would like to see something related to player analysis from Dapper, and I am slightly confused by Ark's voting pattern this cycle. I don't see why Ark cast any of his three votes so far.

[Snipexe]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There were two votes on Dapper, so the current vote tally is 
Lumgol(3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark
Dapper(1): Lumgol
Fifth(1): Sart
Ark(1): Dapper

I would like to see something related to player analysis from Dapper, and I am slightly confused by Ark's voting pattern this cycle. I don't see why Ark cast any of his three votes so far.

Thanks, sorry about that.

[old man moomba]

I've got nothing much to share in the analysis department, besides some eye-narrowing in direction of Fifth.

I want to look into anyone who has posted >3 times this turn. I'll see where my suspisions lie after that.

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, still working on my analysis post, but I havent posted in a while, and idk when my analysis will be done (as I am feeling pretty cremmy right now) so... I will just post whatever this is.

Here is my current stances on players:

I am not sure about the Lumgol lynch.  I personally was planning on probably pushing for a Lum lynch D3. Purely because Lum was lynched D1 in 2 of her past 3/4 games, and I think was lynched D2 in another of those games...

I agree with Fifth playing this game differently than he usually does, but I am still getting a villager vibe from him.  Can't really explain it. 

Devotary I am definitely leaning village on due to our PM interactions.

I am getting an elim vibe on both Lopen and Levitaph, but haven't figured out why yet. Until I do, I am hesitant to vote on either.  I will be keeping an eye on both though.

I want to think Rath is village due to the Drizzle Father RP. I love that.

 

---

I normally have far more PMs by now... So I will try to send a few more out before the end of the turn.  Hopefully there will be another cryptic to extend them... (?)

---

Unless people have objections, I also might post some analysis on roles, as no one this game has done that yet, and I feel way more motivated to do that right now.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Furamirionind

[CadCom]

40 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There were two votes on Dapper, so the current vote tally is 
Lumgol(3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark
Dapper(1): Lumgol
Fifth(1): Sart
Ark(1): Dapper

I'm using this vote count to do some sort of a short player analysis, I hope. But first, most people seem to be expressing that they don't like having such a close lynch at this point in the cycle. But I think that because there are so few elims, four to five players within 2 or 3 votes in a lynch at any point is good, because at that number of people, I think we have the highest chance of having one of the few elims within the lynch without giving them the comfort of being safe from the lynch due to having so many other people possibly being lynched as well. (Does that make sense?)

All right, First off, Lumgol: I actually admire the enthusiasism they have in this game, They are acting like they are super ready to go out and get the elims and win the game. This could be a guise to hide behind, but last game, when they were an elim, I don't think they acted so enthusiastically, and I think they tried to act more subtle. . And I think that all the other times they have been village, they've been relatively enthusiastic. For that I'm reading them as village, and I don't like the lynch on them that much.

Levitaph is relatively new, and so I don't have any personalized tell on him yet, but his behavior gives me a gut reading of giving off generic elim tells, But then again, so did Ark's playstyle for the first few games. So that's tough to go off of. That's why I try to get personalized elim tells for different players. They're slightly more trustworthy than generic elim tells. (probably about 6%. )  So Nothing of note here, I'm still putting him in my neutral group, just because I don't know his playstyle

Fifth, I'm in a PM with, and I'm generally inclined to trust his claim to me, for various reasons, though I do have some questions, which I hope to bring up in a PM with him, if I have time after I finish this post. (probably about a 6% chance)

Ark is a player that I always find difficult to read, so usually I tend not to try to read him until later in the game, when I can look at his voting habits, because his posts have never given me much to go off of personally. I think that others usually get reads from ark, but my mind just doesn't. So he's still neutral.

Dapper is also new, and I'm actually leaning slightly village on him, and I'm not sure why. Even though my gut says that, I'm leaving him in my neutral category because he is new, and I don't know his playstyle. 

Sart I'm still slightly suspicious about, for the reasons I expressed D1, but for the time being, I am going to let that one go. If anyone else wants to scan him, and PM me the results(assuming we still get to PM) That would be fine though, and greatly appreciated.

Anyway, I imagine that any potential eliminators this game will try to remain in the neutral category. Because this is a conversion game, They don't want to look like they were potentially converted, but they also won't want to look like an elim, so they'll try to remain somewhere in the middle, which makes my case against Sart a bit weaker, I think. 

Edit: I was also going to place a vote, mostly because I want to become bonded as quick as possible though, so I'll put it on levitaph because they were one of the higher suspicions on this list, and one of the few who voted, who doesn't have a vote on them. We also still remain within my 5 candidates, and it is likely that any potential elims will want to look like they are trying to bond, so I want to stay with the people who have already voted.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Lumgol]

1 hour ago, Snipexe said:

Lumgol(1): Levitaph

Fifth Scholar(1): Sart

Shqueeves(1): Fifth Scholar,

Dapper(1): Ark1002

Ark1002(1): Dapper

I have voted on Dapper as well as Ark.

Also, I didn't know Dapper was new, so that changes my opinion somewhat.

Edit: was ninja'd and didn't realize. Sorry

Edited April 23, 2019 by Lumgol
ninja'd

[Snipexe]

10 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

I have voted on Dapper as well as Ark.

Also, I didn't know Dapper was new, so that changes my opinion somewhat.

Edit: was ninja'd and didn't realize. Sorry

No problem, sorry again that I missed it

[Lumgol]

Ok, so now that I think about it, I really don't like Ark's voting pattern. He seems to just be switching his vote whenever someone makes a statement about who to vote on without saying any actual reasoning for it. I understand that he might not have time to analyze the whole thread but still wants to become bonded, but I'd like for Ark to at least put in a little bit of effort into choosing someone for himself to vote on and providing some reasoning behind it. Ark is not a brand new player and I'm really expecting more than just "I have no idea who to vote for, but I'll vote for [that person]". I also know that I'm biased because he's currently bandwagoning on me, but that doesn't excuse the fact that if you're going to vote for someone, you should have some kind of motive behind it. And if that motive is to do the bare minimum needed to get bonded, well that's okay, but I don't like it.

Dapper. Ark.

[Steeldancer]

There are less than 2 hours remaining. Take your actions and place your votes, or forever hold your peace. 

[+Ark1002]

So, two things. I'd already made bonding requirements, and I had two suspicions, you and Dapper, based on the threads arguments. When I switched, it was due to your argument. But the counterpoint made the reason I switched illogical. Therefore, I switched back.

[old man moomba]

1 minute ago, Steeldancer said:

forever hold your peace. 

ARGH!

But I can't!

[Lumgol]

1 minute ago, Ark1002 said:

So, two things. I'd already made bonding requirements, and I had two suspicions, you and Dapper, based on the threads arguments. When I switched, it was due to your argument. But the counterpoint made the reason I switched illogical. Therefore, I switched back.

That's fair. However, I'd still like to see your explanation as to WHY you find people suspicious. Switching multiple times is fine. Switching solely based on people's arguments and not your own, and bandwagoning, is just something that I dislike.

[+Ark1002]

Ok. I don't have arguments yet, so feel free to dislike me.

[Lumgol]

1 minute ago, Ark1002 said:

Ok. I don't have arguments yet, so feel free to dislike me.

I see. I am being a bit of a hypocrite in saying this, as I've bandwagoned a lot in earlier games, especially my first few, but I'd say come up with arguments first, and then vote.

And for the record, I don't dislike you at all. I dislike it when people vote without reason. I dislike the action and not the person. You're cool.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Dapper mentions looking at players with fewer than three posts, while CadCom suggests that the elims will try to meet the Nahel bonding requirements. So far this cycle, Levitaph has two posts, as does Xino, Sart, and CadCom, and Lopen. Rath and Shqueeves have one post. All seven of them could easily get to three posts combined over the day and night turns. Votes are another matter. There doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm for any of these lynches, with common sentiment appearing to be that few of the top lynches are supported, but that finding a better lynch is difficult. I'm not enthusiastic about any of these lynches either.

Lumgol(3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark
Ark(2): Dapper, Lumgol
Fifth(1): Sart
Levitaph(1): CadCom

Two of the votes on Lumgol seem to be holdovers from D1 suspicion, while Ark's appears to be a bond vote. Lumgol's reasoning to vote for Dapper is similar to the sentiments expressed in Rath's and Levitaph's earlier posts. She has claimed a role that's difficult to prove, which I believe eliminates Highspren, Ashspren, Inkspren, Truthspren, and Lightspren.
While more content would be appreciated, it is not true that Dapper hasn't provided any analysis. Now, there are no more votes for Dapper.
I'm not ready to vote for @Fifth Scholar(in case he wants to come back) this cycle, as role claim results are pending in that direction.
Ark often appears evil, and yet hasn't been so far to my knowledge. If he is evil this time, he would most likely be an original elim as opposed to a convert. He now claims to have had roughly equivalent suspicion of Lumgol and Dapper, which is indeed possible.
@Levitaph (tagging because only two posts have been made) has consistently been voting for Lumgol. I'm not sure whether this is for the original reason of her appearing *too* helpful with the post about targeting Sja-Anat or the elims, or whether it's for the points other people brought up last cycle. Either way, I suspect Levitaph did not gain a Nahel bond last cycle, and will want to make a third post today or tonight.

I don't like postponing my vote again, but I do want to see the opinions of everyone else who said they'd vote before I finalise my vote. I'll put down a temporary vote on Rath in the hopes that @Rathmaskal will respond to the questions I asked him earlier.

[Fifth Scholar]

I am indeed here; was able to get a surge in productivity, and I ought to have an hour or so today. Give me a few minutes to catch up on everything and I’ll start doing some real analysis. 

[Steeldancer]

Just now, Fifth Scholar said:

surge

Heh

[Lumgol]

1 minute ago, Steeldancer said:

Heh

Why didn't I get that until now  

[Sart]

On 4/21/2019 at 4:45 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

@Shqueeves, @Snipexe, @Rathmaskal and @Dr. Dapper have read my PMs, each three or four hours ago, but not replied. @Levitaph has simply not read it yet; please do. For now, to elicit a response, Shqueeves. Although your mouth may still hurt, I’d like your thoughts on a few players now, or at least a response to my PM. You’ve said little beyond an RNG vote at this point. 

Edit: Is there anybody I forgot to send a PM to?

I'm still incredibly suspicious of Fifth Scholar for several reasons, which I will now articulate.

• The post I just quoted focuses on less active players. We already talked Day 1 about how less active players were less likely to be converts. Why then was Fifth Scholar focusing the conversation on them?
• Upon further inspection, they have been offering role swaps. That is a terrible idea in a conversion game. If they aren't converted, they can be converted and let Sja-Ajanat learn all of our most powerful roles. If they are already evil, they now know most of the town's roles, which gives Sja-Ajanat easy access to Division. That could easily spiral into the Elims getting multiple kills each turn.
• Upon giving them my action from last night, Fifth claimed to be a Stonespren. Such a claim is hard to verify, and would be an easy claim for Sja-Ajanat to make.
• Upon prompting, Fifth admitted to having an Essence stolen from her last night because of a Highspren. I chatted with the Highspren in question. Day 1, the Highspren claims Fifth took two essences. If he was a Stonespren as claimed, he could have fused those two essences with the two he started out with during the Night. However, the Highspren was able to take one of those Essences. Item crafting comes before the Highspren action, so Fifth did not craft last night.

I propose that Fifth Scholar may in fact be Sja-Ajanat, rather than a Stonespren. For these reasons, I urge you to vote on them. I will be amplifying my own vote on them to hopefully make sure this lynch happens.

Edited April 23, 2019 by Sart
Misgendered Fifth

[Furamirionind]

4 minutes ago, Sart said:

I'm still incredibly suspicious of Fifth Scholar for several reasons, which I will now articulate.

• The post I just quoted focuses on less active players. We already talked Day 1 about how less active players were less likely to be converts. Why then was Fifth Scholar focusing the conversation on them?
• Upon further inspection, they have been offering role swaps. That is a terrible idea in a conversion game. If they aren't converted, they can be converted and let Sja-Ajanat learn all of our most powerful roles. If they are already evil, they now know most of the town's roles, which gives Sja-Ajanat easy access to Division. That could easily spiral into the Elims getting multiple kills each turn.
• Upon giving them my action from last night, Fifth claimed to be a Stonespren. Such a claim is hard to verify, and would be an easy claim for Sja-Ajanat to make.
• Upon prompting, Fifth admitted to having an Essence stolen from her last night because of a Highspren. I chatted with the Highspren in question. Day 1, the Highspren claims Fifth took two essences. If she was a Stonespren as claimed, she could have fused those two essences with the two she started out with during the Night. However, the Highspren was able to take one of those Essences. Item crafting comes before the Highspren action, so Fifth did not craft last night.

I propose that Fifth Scholar may in fact be Sja-Ajanat, rather than a Stonespren. For these reasons, I urge you to vote on them. I will be amplifying my own vote on them to hopefully make sure this lynch happens.

Hmm, do you not think that this would warrant sharing the identity of the spren that stole Fifth's item?

Edited April 23, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Lumgol]

I've been PMing with said highspren, and they also appear to find Fifth suspicious from what I've understood. I won't reveal who they are but encourage them to do so unless they have a good reason not to.