Karnatheon Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 At this point, I would assume that since we ended up with less players than Straw wanted originally, I would agree we probably don't have a Coinshot. I doubt a Coinshot would have passed up the chance on possibly taking out the Seer. And if an elim was Coinshot I don't see them choosing not to take out villagers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CadCom Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 I'm glad we caught the seer! I have a few suspicions about other possible traitors, but I'll have to provide the majority of my analysis on Monday, which, according to my calculations should be the last half of the next day, so I should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop772 Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 (edited) I am not a ghost! I am terribly sorry for being soooo inactive, but I am finally ready to begin. Yay ITIAH is dead, now we need to find the converts. Feel free to PM me with requests, I have an extensive PM network that I have been cultivating with the various roles. Captain Crash Edit: I would like the lynch discussion tomorrow to at least look at Snipe. I started questioning after seeing Maills vague thing about something not going according to plan, but what really threw me was their last post before the end of the cycle. This feels waaaaay off to me. The ambiguous "you", the sudden realization, and most importantly the switch from ITIAH to themselves which went from a confirmed ITIAH lynch to having it 5 to 5, which gave ITIAH a chance to survive while risking their own life. This absolutely screams new convert to me, and would like to get others opinions on it. Edited December 22, 2018 by Coop772 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 (edited) I actually trust snipexe after that. I have been posting a bit of analysis in PMs, and will share the analysis D5 if I am alive. If I am dead, those players will share the analysis for me. It will try to address several things such as this. Edited December 22, 2018 by Furamirionind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Great! I can't say I'm disappointed we didn't lynch Snipe then! Concerning Snipe, I'm not entirely sure what I think. That last post has got me going back and forth and I'm not entirely sure. I'm going to be keeping an eye on him, but I also want to see who's been hard pressing the Itiah lynches since that'll point us in a good direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop772 Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 More analysis as I continue to get caught up! (sorry this is coming in bits and pieces I am just trying to put these things together in my head) There's really no good way to intro this so here we go. I think Devotary was converted N1, which indirectly lead to snipe's conversion N2 or N3 and here's why. D2 we get the first Tineye message. ITIAH starts the speculation off with a post that didn't do much (1), but what I'm interested in here is Devos post, which brought up the possibility of the anagram 'vote h' (2). This was done as a way to get some targeted lynch discussion going around certain people. Snipe (who according to my theory had yet to be converted) then takes this post and argues with it (3), putting some potential mistrust on Devo. ITIAH, who we now know was the Seer, sees his fresh convert getting questioned and quickly and with little logic pulls the attention away from Devo (4). Then, seeing the potential issue Snipe may cause in the future, converts them N2 or N3 1) ITIAHs initiating post: 2) Devos post: 3) Snipes response: And finally 4) ITIAHs post to take heat off Devo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Coop772 said: More analysis as I continue to get caught up! (sorry this is coming in bits and pieces I am just trying to put these things together in my head) There's really no good way to intro this so here we go. I think Devotary was converted N1, Devotary is dead and was an Obligator Smoker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 So looking at the lynch from D3, I think I'm willing to soft clear all 3 players who voted for ITIAH (Gancho, CadCom, and Furam). Considering CadCom was the second vote on a fellow elim in the MR his is a bit harder to read, but I think it was genuine. Comparatively ITIAH was barely under any suspicion and as the Seer ITIAH is a bit less expendable at the time (better for that atium to be used for conversion). The timing of Mailliw's vote on CadCom doesn't look so great, even if it ended up irrelevant. Considering he went for Snip last turn over ITIAH too... Araris doesn't look very good either, if not worse. Both times he was involved in a lynch that nearly saved ITIAH (although in his case, the timing wasn't as high pressure). Alvron is... hm. The fact that he voted for Jon at the last minute to make it a coin flip is very risky. The fact that he immediately calls for a Coinshot to hit him could be an attempt at reducing suspicion, as with his participation in ITIAH's second lynch. But either case is very Village!Alv, too, so I'm not sure its indicative of his alignment alone. It is also worth noting that ITIAH tried to get both Alv and Lumgol lynched. Hard to say if that was distancing. I will need to look over ITIAH's posts again. Anyone else have some ideas about the people who participated in these lunches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: Anyone else have some ideas about the people who participated in these lunches? I have an idea about these lunches... Keep in mind, of the three that voted for Itiah D3 (Gancho, CadCom, Fura), one of those players could have been converted N3. In fact, they likely had a bead N3, and converting one of the people already pushing for the seer lynch would be quite effective bussing. Not being a kill on N2 may have been because the converted player had a role they valued more than the kill... like the seeker. Until I personally learn who the seeker is, I will be taking what they say with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Furamirionind said: I have an idea about these lunches... Keep in mind, of the three that voted for Itiah D3 (Gancho, CadCom, Fura), one of those players could have been converted N3. In fact, they likely had a bead N3, and converting one of the people already pushing for the seer lynch would be quite effective bussing. Not being a kill on N2 may have been because the converted player had a role they valued more than the kill... like the seeker. Until I personally learn who the seeker is, I will be taking what they say with a grain of salt. That's fair. Which brings into question that if Gancho or you were converted, would you vote for ITIAH again? Or if CadCom was converted would he avoid voting for ITIAH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 I think it likely that an elim!Fura or elim!Gancho would vote on Itiah again. The suspicion on Itiah was already there, and with us voting on Itiah before, the bus is set up quite well. Early game there was already an agreement to lynch anyone that survived a lynch. Going against that could be seen as suspicious. However, the elims are down a player due to the lynch D3. So preserving another player that can make kill actions and vote is also something they want to do. So elim!CadCom still could have been hoping to swing the lynch onto Maill. I dont think Maill and CadCom can both be elims. If one is found to be elim, I am clearing the other. Only 1 person of: Gancho, CadCom, Fura; can be an elim. If one is found to be an elim, the other 2 are cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Furamirionind said: I think it likely that an elim!Fura or elim!Gancho would vote on Itiah again. The suspicion on Itiah was already there, and with us voting on Itiah before, the bus is set up quite well. Early game there was already an agreement to lynch anyone that survived a lynch. Going against that could be seen as suspicious. However, the elims are down a player due to the lynch D3. So preserving another player that can make kill actions and vote is also something they want to do. So elim!CadCom still could have been hoping to swing the lynch onto Maill. I dont think Maill and CadCom can both be elims. If one is found to be elim, I am clearing the other. Only 1 person of: Gancho, CadCom, Fura; can be an elim. If one is found to be an elim, the other 2 are cleared. Of the three, I'm thinking Gancho is the most cleared. He didn't hedge at all with his vote on ITIAH. Just went straight for it. Your voting might have been the most interesting since you were going for Snip at first and then switched to ITIAH. At the time CadCom voted for Mailliw, too, ITIAH hadn't even received a vote yet, I dont think. Let me go back and see. EDIT: I went over the previous day again and the interactions between ITIAH and Alvron feel too genuine to be staged, and I also somewhat agree with his response to what I said about him knowing I was evil in the MR. For now I'm going to keep him as village. Mailliw feels a bit less trustworthy in retrospect, as well. It was D4 and he was still throwing his vote around on players without any real bite to them, and I was especially surprised to see myself on a list of people he wanted to lynch since I was "uncharacteristically quiet." Granted he had no idea it's because I was focusing on the game I was evil in, but it doesn't feel like a good enough reason to have me on the table at that point in the game. Very eliminator targeting low hanging fruit vibe. Also, Araris. Oh boy. Could be bad luck but twice he didn't vote for ITIAH (and as far as I can tell he barely commented on him). The main reason I pinged everyone who didn't yet vote was because I was hoping to force more elims to get involved. It also came within close proximity to ITIAH changing his vote to Snip, which makes me raise eyebrows either way. I think as of right now my top suspicions are Mailliw, Araris, and maybe one of Furam or CadCom Edited December 22, 2018 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 (edited) I am starting to wonder again why there was no kill N2 now that I have more time for SE. I can see one of 3 possibilities: Itiah just didn't convert anyone N1 - I think this would have been a big mistake on Itiah's part, as converting N1 is, I think possibly the most important thing for the Seer to do... Also if they didn't convert N1,that means they only would have had 3 beads... Which seems rather small. I think this very unlikely. Itiah converted an inactive N1 - This is... Possible... Choosing someone that hadn't posted yet is dangerous, as there is a very real chance that they would be inactive. Possible, but unlikely I think Itiah converted someone with a role N1, and this role's action was worth more to them than the kill action - Possible, but out of the 8 roles the seer could have hit, Roleless and Thug don't have actions, A lurcher wouldn't value a protect over a kill, a Tineye wouldn't be too useful N2, coinshot is right out. That leaves a Soother, Rioter, or Seeker for the conversion N1. Something interesting when comparing D2 lynch with D3 lynch, is that D2, there was vote manip and no kill, D3 there was no vote manip and a kill. Right now, I am leaning towards a soother being N1 convert, then used their action D2 on the Walin lynch not realizing they only get 1 action/cycle... Edited December 22, 2018 by Furamirionind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw Posted December 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Sorry, I was busy with something. The day turn will be up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw Posted December 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 [Insert imaginary writeup here] Alvron is dead! He was an Obligator. Tineye Message: Who here likes cinnamon? If you trust me, I'll give you some. GM Notes: The Day will end at 5:30 PM EST on December 26th. This means that the Day will be twice as long. PMs are open. Player List: Spoiler 1. Ookla the Phoenix (AKA xinoehp512) (Neddih) Obligator 2. Ookla the Guacless (AKA I think I am here) (The Legendary Guacless) Seer 3. Araris Valerian (Ookla the Inherited) 4. Malliw73 (Matarn Wachtrot) 5. Alvron (Nameless Obligator #5) Obligator 6. Ookla the Lumgol (AKA Lumgol) (Teraval) 7. Coop772 (Ihcnoux) 8. Ookla the Ring (AKA Karnatheon) (Bessum) 9. Ookla the Gambler (AKA Nohadon) (Velrond Tarot) 10. Amanuensis (Xemalun Renaud) 11. Ookla the Duck (AKA Cadmium Compounder) (Palessi) 12. Ookla the Libre (AKA Gancho Libre) (Erbil Ohcnag) 13. Rathmaskal (Lord Flamingo) 14. Ookla the Heretical (AKA Devotary of Spontaneity) (Jesorden) Smoker 15. Ookla the Skeptical (AKA Snipexe) (Snipexe) 16. Jondesu (Remart) 17. STINK (Flans Mastic) 18. Ookla the Walinevitable (AKA Walin) (Nedran) Obligator 19. Furamirionind (Furamirionind) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 (edited) RIP Alv Can Tineyes publish these messages along with another action? EDIT: Nevermind, a quick glance at the rules answered my question. Also reinforces what Furam noticed about the votes and kills. Edited December 22, 2018 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 This is what I have at the moment, this is without factoring in the results we just learned or anything. The next players I will be looking at are Snipexe, Jondesu, Araris, and Aman if I can manage it... My cousins will be coming back over to my house, which means I will have significantly less time to do stuff while they are over. Maill: Slight elim D3: Was against the Itiah lynch, gave Itiah a lot of benifit of the doubt in our PMs, though I don't think that was too suspicious. And tried to put pressure on CadCom, who helped start the lynch. D4: Pushed for Snipexe's lynch pretty hard. Snipexe and Maill won't both be elims.Alv: slight village D3: Tied the vote between Jon and Itiah, but that seems like a very "Alv" thing to do I think... was the second vote on Itiah encouraging people to consider lynching them, Itiah tryed to divert votes onto them, and Alv locked in their vote on Itiah.Gancho: leaning village Started the lynch votes on Itiah D3 and D4. Kept his vote on Itiah through the next cycle. It a big reason why Itiah was lynched. Though it is possible that he was converted N3, and then just bussed Itiah D4. The fact that Gancho claimed that CadCom was roleless would make the elims more likely to target Gancho then, as they would prefer to have a role-d elim than not.CadCom: leaning village. Was the second vote on Itiah D3, and voted on Maill D4. I dont think Maill and CadCom can both be elims. The only weird thing with CadCom, is Maill targeted CadCom as a response to CadCom going against Itiah, it is strange then that CadCom would choose to target Maill instead of Itiah. If he targeted Itiah, and they fliped elim, he would have a good case to go against Maill. But instead he chose the retaliation vote? Lumgol: Village Seems very genuine in our PM. Itiah tried to lynch her as well. The tough thing is, an elim D4 would either try to push a mislynch, OR and Itiah lynch. The reason to do the Itiah lynch is because in the early game people said we should kill anyone who survives a lynch. So it would be a really effective bus. I think it very possible that Alv was converted N3 and waited for Itiahs permission to push that lynch... the rest would be staged... same with a couple other people there, but my brain is SEed out between MR32 and this, so I am going to take a break for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnatheon Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Furamirionind said: The tough thing is, an elim D4 would either try to push a mislynch, OR and Itiah lynch. The reason to do the Itiah lynch is because in the early game people said we should kill anyone who survives a lynch. So it would be a really effective bus. I think it very possible that Alv was converted N3 and waited for Itiahs permission to push that lynch... the rest would be staged... same with a couple other people there, but my brain is SEed out between MR32 and this, so I am going to take a break for now Alv died in the writeup. Understandable considering you said your brain is overworked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Karnatheon said: Alv died in the writeup. Understandable considering you said your brain is overworked. Umm... Oops, I didnt mean to copy over that part of my notes... : / I wrote that part Yesturday I think... Not really relevent today. Even the "SEed out" part. I am fine now. : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailliw73 Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 I don't normally do this, but I want to consolidate my thoughts, at least for myself. 3. Araris Valerian (Ookla the Inherited) Araris I typically read as evil, even when he's not. Knowing that bias, I don't want to overcorrect either. Honestly, probably a bit of a village read. 6. Ookla the Lumgol (AKA Lumgol) (Teraval) Like Fura, definitely lean village here. One of my strongest reads. 7. Coop772 (Ihcnoux) Hasn't been super active, but I have a general good feeling. Strong village lean. 8. Ookla the Ring (AKA Karnatheon) (Bessum) Um, hasn't said much at all. Didn't vote Itiah, so red flag, but PMs seemed legit. That's all I've got. Neutral read. 9. Ookla the Gambler (AKA Nohadon) (Velrond Tarot) Um, nonexistent, doesn't count. 10. Amanuensis (Xemalun Renaud) Now that I understand why he was busy this whole time, I'm not seeing the change in behavior as related to a conversion. Haven't yet decided on Aman. Followed my vote for meta reasons, which is kinda weird, but is kinda Aman too. I'm going to wait for more data first. 11. Ookla the Duck (AKA Cadmium Compounder) (Palessi) Still not sure about this one. Voting patterns are consistent with village, but gut reads say he's off. Probably lean towards a late convert if he's evil. 12. Ookla the Libre (AKA Gancho Libre) (Erbil Ohcnag) As I look back over his actions, he's pretty clearly village to me. I don't want to give any 100% indicators, but if I did, probably Gancho. 13. Rathmaskal (Lord Flamingo) Love to see him around more. Honestly at a neutral level. Probably elim lean just because of the floating activity level seems ideal. 15. Ookla the Skeptical (AKA Snipexe) (Snipexe) Not sure now that it seems it was all a mistake. Nothing bad really happened, it seems, but my initial read was still off. I could see Snipe and Itiah organizing a gambit with the PM thing to detach themselves from each other, but didn't expect it to go as bad as it did, and once it did, they decided Snipe was worth more than Itiah. Maybe? 16. Jondesu (Remart) One of my highest suspicions after disappearing after almost getting lynched. Also has an activity level that seems to fit our traitors. 17. STINK (Flans Mastic) Nothing. 19. Furamirionind (Furamirionind) Super village lean, but if I'm realistic, could've been one of the last conversions. I've decided to trust him though until I see not to. That compiled, I'd put Jon, Rath/Snipe, and Karn/Aman as my best ideas for traitors. I'll likely end up voting for one of them until more information is brought up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Araris Valerian Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 I'm going to try and make a post similar to what Mailliw has here, but I'm going to be busy with church and family stuff so I don't know how late in the cycle I'll get it posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumgol Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 So... I will be gone for a week, starting tomorrow. I'll be inactive then. Don't blame my inactivity on elim-ness. I will simply be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 (edited) Amanuensis Gancho Libre Malliw73 Lumgol Snipexe STINK Cadmium Compounder Furamirionind Karnatheon Rathmaskal Coop772 Nohadon Jondesu Araris Valerian It's not a perfect list, but this is where I stand. I'm offering Gancho my trust because he voted for ITIAH twice and most importantly, didn't hedge at all when voting for him the second time. Mailliw I'm trusting because apparently as of last night it's been confirmed by a Seeker that they're a Smoker. I'm trusting Lumgol for now because of how hard ITIAH was going after them. Snipexe is green because he was similarly at odds with ITIAH. @STINK has been too inactive to be a valid conversion target tho I would be happy if he started getting involved soon. CadCom and Furam are orange because I want to take a closer look at them, since it makes sense they may have been converted the night after ITIAH was lynched the first time. I have the other 5 players in yellow because I have no opinions on them at all (can't remember a single post by each). I will be going over everything they've said and done in the past and be paying close attention to them going forward. Finally, I have Araris in red because I want to lynch him for reasons I mentioned last night. I know next to nothing about ITIAH as a player so I'm going to do some research into their past games, as well as thoroughly comb D1 and N1 of this game in order to attempt predicting who they may have converted. EDIT: (1) Araris Valerian: Amanuensis, Edited December 23, 2018 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 I am still working on analyzing some other people... But for now, I am going to cast my vote on Karn. He was very active and vocal in the MR, and now that that is over, I find it odd that they haven't spoken up or done much analysis yet this game. The first couple turns make sense as the MR was going on, but now it has been a full cycle, and still nothing. Beyond Karn, Araris actually did push back against the Itiah lynch in a sort... Potentially trying to cast suspicion on CadCom and myself... Though I think there is a decent chance village!Araris would have said the same thing... Karn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 (1) Araris Valerian: Amanuensis, (1) Karnatheon: Furamirionind, I was about to ping a ton of people to try to get them voting but then I realized this turn doesn't end for another 3 days??? Needless to say that was a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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