Long Game 48: The Terris Synod

[Stick. she/her]

Yay

[CadCom he/him]

Hey, I was inactive for most of that cycle, sorry, but I am glad that we've got an Elim! More analysis to come!

[phattemer]

I’ll be home in ~5 hours and will post thoughts and suggestions as to where we go from there at that time- a brief note that I very much doubt any Elim would have voted for their Sparker unless it was an absolute lost cause or their vote would be canceled, and especially given that one person’s switching from Kidpen to Rand in addition to the vote manipulation would have tied the vote, the people who wound up on Kid are soft-cleared in my mind. 

[DeTess she/her]

Just a short announcement, I'll probably be posting and analyzing a little less this week, as other things are keeping me rather busy. I'm not sure how much it'll affect my posting yet, but we'll see. I will try to get a full analysis of Kidpen's posts done next cycle, but I can't really promise anything right now.

[Stick. she/her]

Well, Kidpen's role explains his vote disappearing each lynch. First off Coop, and then off Snipexe on D2. I, like others, am willing to soft-clear every player that voted for Kidpen last cycle.

That leaves Steel, CadCom, Jond, WfY, Ark, and Sart. My thoughts on these players mirror those of Sart's, however I'll give my own two cents on each regardless. 

As I said last cycle when I voted for Kidpen, his flip gave us a ton of info. Sart is now 90% village in my books, even though his behaviour the last couple of turns was very elimy. I may even say TWTBAW. I would like to lean village on Steel based on Kidpen's comments about him and his vote on Araris earlier in the game, but I'm somewhat sceptical still.

Jond is a mystery - he hasn't posted much so I don't have a lot to go off of. He could honestly go either way. 

Ark has being going against WfY rather strongly, and that isn't something I'd expect an elim to normally do. So village lean here.

I believe I've said it before, but I've been quite suspicious of WfY for some time and Kidpen's flip has only intensified that suspicion. Both Kidpen and WfY had been reading each other village...

Lastly, CadCom. They've only voted once so far: for Rand, last cycle. Other than that, they expressed suspicion for Phatt and Rand in a previous post. And on Steel and Snip some time before that...for some reason I'm finding it difficult to come to a conclusion about CadCom. Though it's not a positive vibe that I'm getting, generally speaking.

And now a couple of things from last turn:

@randuir I agree that an ISO button would make all our lives a lot easier. XD

@Rathmaskal Alv is dead.  

 

[CadCom he/him]

To be completely honest, I keep starting to do a kidpen analysis, but then I get bored and distracted by something else. So I will wait and maybe tomorrow, I will have more desire to do actual analysis. 

With regards to the couple of claims against me, I'll see what I can address there. 

14 hours ago, Sart said:

The people who voted on Kidpen aren't cleared from suspicion of course, but people who voted on others are probably more suspicious. So, going down the list:

• Steeldancer: Kidpen expresses suspicion of him on several occasions. Thus, I have a village read there.
• Cadmium Compounder: A big suspicion. He seems to know that Kidpen will flip Elim, and writes a post accordingly
• Jondesu: It's hard to say. He's going off of gut, which isn't helpful. Probably not elim if Cadmium is elim.
• Worldhopper from Yolen: Defended by Kidpen several times. Definitely suspicious, although it could be pocketing a new player.
• Ark/Pretty: Probably not evil if Worldhopper is evil.
• Sart: In my defense, Kidpen did vote for me. However, I look really evil right now. I wouldn't be surprised if I get killed tonight by a villager.

So, if I had to give my biggest suspicions, I would say Cadmium and Worldhopper are the last two Spiked. However, I've been really off this game, and it's entirely possible that a bad guy joined the bandwagon late in the cycle. Still, those two are my best bet.

Regarding this, I don't think I was suggesting I knew Kidpen was elim, just that if he was elim, I was giving my opinion as to where the other Elim votes would be.

 

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Lastly, CadCom. They've only voted once so far: for Rand, last cycle. Other than that, they expressed suspicion for Phatt and Rand in a previous post. And on Steel and Snip some time before that...for some reason I'm finding it difficult to come to a conclusion about CadCom. Though it's not a positive vibe that I'm getting, generally speaking.

Yes, I've only voted once. But I feel I've expressed fair reasoning for that. First cycle, I didn't really get on, and second cycle, I was waiting to hear from Snip, then by the time Snip posted, I was unable to get back on. I was expecting to be able to check near the end of the cycle, but IRL plans got in the way. 

 

Quote

Quoting @Jondesu

I think I'll stick to my guns and vote for Cadmium Compounder for now, for the originally stated reasons of thinking the Elims are hiding at least another member in that group, but I'm willing to be swayed to vote for Bort or someone else since the reasoning on any one particular player is weak.

I can't really provide any defense here. Either you're right or you're wrong.  I can't remember if youchanged your vote or not, but like I mentioned at the beginning, I keep getting distracted, and don't really have the motivation to mount an analysis Right now. Maybe later today, or the beginning of the next day cycle. 

[phattemer]

Alright, here we go. *cracks knuckles*  I'm going to be looking at last cycle's votes and posts in general, the final results, and how all of that affects my previous reads:

So, Day 3. Lots of stuff went down.

Sart votes for me, given Araris was Spiked and he tried to get the lynch off me, while Alvron was voting for me. This was Day 2, in which Snip was ultimately killed. I don't really think I need to go into why that's not a pretty good case, given that after last cycle anyone who still thinks I'm Spiked believes me to be a lot more tricky than I could handle.

Steeldancer jumps on, also votes for me. These two feel a lot like the three somewhat random votes on Rand at the beginning of the day before last, by Araris(Spiked), Steeldancer, and WfY.

Cadmium then posts an analysis of Araris, which in their opinion points to Rand.

Rand's analysis of Araris points to Sart, me, WfY, and Rath.

My Synod claim, where I become suspicious of Rath, Kidpen, Steel, and Sart.

Steel continues to, IMO, tunnel me despite that, but despite that I find myself being less suspicious of them now since it seems almost too ostentatious for a Spiked to be so determined.

The votes:

Phattemer (1): Steeldancer
Randuir (2): Cadmium Compounder, Sart
Kidpen (6): Rathmaskal, Stick, Phattemer, Randuir, Xinoeph, Bort
Cadmium Compounder (1): Jondesu
Worldhopper from Yolen (1): Ark/Pretty
Sart (1): Kidpen

I'm willing to tentatively clear Rath and Stick, and even Rand, but Xino especially and to a lesser degree Bort are still up there.

My final thoughts: the last two elims are probably from among Xino, WfY, Sart, Jondesu, and Ark. Of them, I'd say Sart is my top choice, then Wino or WfY, and I don't have a ton of info on Jondesu or Ark.

[Worldhopper From Yolen]

Ok, I know I probably look really suspicious right now, but I am just a really bad player. Please believe me. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

1 hour ago, Worldhopper From Yolen said:

Ok, I know I probably look really suspicious right now, but I am just a really bad player. Please believe me. 

Thanks, you just made me more suspicious of you than I previously was.

Also I’ve come to the conclusion that it was Alvron was the one who submitted the kill on Araris, otherwise it would have been claimed by now.

Edited August 21, 2018 by Steeldancer
Additional thought

[Jondesu he/him]

48 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Also I’ve come to the conclusion that it was Alvron was the one who submitted the kill on Araris, otherwise it would have been claimed by now.

Probably true, though I can think of a few reasons for someone to keep their head down even when they could be cleared, if they want to survive and not be killed off by Elims. Actually, wait, that's the reason.  Still, Alv certainly would have been able to make the kill, and it wouldn't surprise me.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Cycle closed! Writeup will be up in a little while. 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Laksam hated the ashmounts. Every day, no matter the results of the inane discussions the villagers insisted on having , piles of ash fell on the fields of Tathingdwen that he’d just finished cleaning. With Era dead, he had to clean out her garden in addition to all his other duties. He didn’t have time for all this nonsense with the villagers and the Spiked murdering each other when they wouldn’t last the year without fresh crops. Laksam had tried to recruit others to help him in his quest to clear the fields of ash, but they had all refused. “We’re busy,” they had said, or perhaps, “Don’t you know the village has more important things to do?” Fools, every last one of them. What difference did it make if they found and eliminated all the Spiked? At this rate, the village would kill itself off. Laksam participated in the village’s peculiar brand of justice to keep up appearances, no use trying to save the village if he was going to get murdered for it, but in his brief moments of spare time, Laksam began writing letters. Lots and lots of letters, one for each person in the outside world he knew. If the inhabitants of Tathingdwen wouldn’t listen to reason, perhaps the expatriate Terris would. Just in case, Laksam prepared one final letter, more of a poster really. Asking nicely hadn’t worked, explaining the severity of the ash problem had been laughed off, so Laksam decided to try demanding obedience. “Citizens of Tathingdwen:” the poster announced in large letters. “Ising the needing of working of you. Ising of the cleansing of ash. Needing the arriving of you the time of appointing. Ising the giving of brooms.” In smaller letters, Laksam wrote out the name of each surviving resident, along with the times he expected them to show up. Each shift required two people, to limit the effects of attrition on the continuous effort. Satisfied, Laksam left his house, poster in hand, letters in the pockets of his robe.

    The mist was thick that night. Laksam enjoyed misty nights; he could almost ignore the omnipresent ash at times like these. Years of nights spent outside, just him, the mists, and the ash, had given Laksam an impeccable sense for the village in darkness. He wasted no time walking up to the Synod lodge and nailing his poster to the wall using a mallet he’d borrowed from Era upon her death. This task done, he turned and gazed out to the periphery of the village. The night was still young, and his steelminds were full of speed. He could, potentially, rush out to deliver his letters and return before the villagers realized he was gone. Sweeping ash all day left little time to store speed, but he’d been saving up for years, ever since that day long ago when Izzy had needed an emergency supply of animal crackers to placate her gods. Now, she was gone too. Laksam shook his head wearily. The Spiked were taking everything from him. He would not let them prevent him from fighting his eternal war against the ash. Glancing at his Steelminds, Laksam made his decision. The ash could wait for a few more hours.

Laksam tapped speed and took off into the night, letters in tow. As he ran, Laksam remembered how much he enjoyed Steelrunning, especially at night. The cool breeze of the wind blowing across his face. The enveloping presence of the mists, covering up the ugliness of the world without unduly limiting his vision. The blinding agony as he suddenly tripped and smashed his face against the hard ground. Wait, no, that wasn’t right. Laksam struggled to get up and continue his journey, but the intense pain in his head forced him to his knees again. He sat there for a minute, struggling to collect his thoughts, hoping the pain would go away, that it wasn’t permanent. He stood up dizzily just in time to hear a voice behind him say, “Well, looks like we have a runner. Where are you going so late at night, when all the decent folks have gone to sleep?”

Laksam turned around groggily, almost falling over in the process. His vision blurred, leaving him unable to identify the newcomer. The swirling mist didn’t help matters. Laksam tried to respond, resorting to the street slang of his youth. “Ising the being of you of decent?” he forced out.

“Hmm? I didn’t catch that,” the figure said conversationally pulling something long and sharp out from under his robes. Ah well. We’ll see how long it takes the villagers to find your body.” At this, Laksam, already nervous, began to panic. He tapped speed, attempting to turn and run, but the Spiked was prepared for this. The razor-sharp projectile, hurled at extreme velocities, pierced Laksam from behind even as he began to run. The ash sweeper’s body made it a few more paces before realizing it was dead, finally collapsing a mere ten meters from the shin high steel tripwire that had caused Laksam’s downfall. The Spiked nodded in approval. All that time spend surrounding the village with a ring of steel had paid off. The Spiked walked up to Laksam’s corpse to retrieve the obsidian javelin, pausing at the sound of paper crinkling. Upon finding the first of the letters, the figure’s grin widened. The frantic entreaties for aid would serve as excellent kindling for their writer’s funeral pyre.

---

Ethin Hallil’s drink had been poisoned. It would have been a great travesty, if he hadn’t accidentally nudged it with his elbow as he animatedly retold the death of HanTor, and poured the wine all over his brand new SCUBA gear. The dry cleaning bill was a lot cheaper than a notary and an interment, though, so he gladly paid it once the laundry lady asked why his gear smelled like strychnine.

---

Olaf rose from his seat in the Synod, thoroughly exhausted and befuddled. After its members had called for a clandestine meeting in the night, Olaf had an apprehension that something major was about to take place in the Synod.

The meeting had certainly not disappointed.

The remaining Synod members had tired of Marne’s calls for moderation. A decisive viote had ousted him from his position as chair of the Synod, reducing him back to an ordinary member. Olaf recalled the thunderstruck look on his new friend’s face as the hands had gone up, one by one, and Marne had been removed from his long-standing position. Olaf himself had been shocked, his faith in the legislative body and his belief in the goodness of the Synod’s errand both in tatters. Removing Marne had not been in their best interests. The man was a competent, capable leader, and his peaceful and nonviolent stances were, in Olaf’s eyes, a mark of the man’s strength. Though he did not take an authoritative stance, and was never the most decisive, Olaf appreciated the compassion within the man, a trait he had always struggled to acquire. In addition, without a leader to guide them, the Synod was aimless and had no clear direction. Despite claims from the Synod that a new leader would be appointed, Olaf knew that a leader of Marne’s caliber did not exist elsewhere in the Synod, and without one, the Synod would drift purposelessly. However, the Terris had been in agreement about one crucial element; Tarin needed to be killed. The orphan had been accused of association with the deceased agents of the Lord Ruler, and enough of the Terris had decided that she warranted removal by Olaf’s assassin. Marne, again shocked, had merely voted present. Olaf voted against the resolution. While he was sympathetic of Marne’s situation, and felt terrible for his friend’s plight, he knew that his assassin should not be used when the Synod was leaderless, and unable to guide themselves to wise decisions. Nevertheless, Olaf had been outvoted again, with the cripple Leidene siding with the younger, ascendant faction that had deposed Marne.

So it was that Olaf found himself outside with a purse full of money that was not his, knocking on the door of his Coinshot. He had carefully removed all metal on him, and had filled the purse with paper notes, to minimise the risk of an accidental or careless Steelpush incapacitating or killing him.  Trepidatious, Olaf stood on the porch, waiting for his man to emerge. The wind swirled around him, chilling him and shaking the bushes from side to side. Olaf watched the movement of the branches, thinking of warm fires, and therefore did not notice when the front door swung silently outward on oiled hinges, and a cloaked figure in black garb alighted on the steps. Recognising the eye tattooed on Olaf’s ankle, the man did not bother inquiring as to Olaf’s identity, instead moving to take his purse. Raising an eyebrow at the paper currency, the assassin rummaged through the purse, lips mouthing numbers as he counted the sum. When he was done, he whistled softly, appreciative. The Coinshot turned to Olaf with a broad smile on his face. “️️Who?” he asked simply.

Olaf answered hesitantly. “Tarin,” he said. “Orphan girl who just moved into Tathingdwen. A...group I’m in thinks she might be a snoop for the Lord Ruler, and we’d rather get her out of the way before we proceed any further.” The half-lie would hopefully placate the man. Olaf would be laughed away if he explained what Hadrian and Marne had done to him in front of his old associates, and so he had learned to keep up pretenses. More importantly, however, he could not compromise the Synod, even if he disagreed with its current direction. Men like this assassin, while they ostensibly served him, would do anything to turn a profit, Olaf knew—he had been among their ranks for the better part of his adulthood. If it meant a few more bills in his pocket, the Coinshot would not hesitate to sell out the Synod to those willing to pay for such information. So Olaf kept a tight lip as the man nodded, a self-satisfied smirk upon his face, and jumped off into the mists after his target.

Olaf watched him go, standing on the small veranda in the ash-coated yard. His associate would not fail, though a nagging doubt gnawed at the insides of the conflicted man as he towered over the streets and small buildings, striding towards Marne’s old house, the initial hideout that Olaf had nearly razed. He felt that Tarin was not guilty, that the Synod had adjudicated incorrectly. And to form a different plan, to truly save the Terris, Olaf would need to enlist the aid of his first ally in the Synod, its former leader, if he was to not fail this group that had placed their reliance in him. For the second time that night, even as the unfortunate Tarin was riddled with holes from many coins, Olaf knocked on a door he had not planned to be at, hoping that behind this one lay the answers he sought.

---

Rathmaskal was slaughtered by the Spiked! He was a Village Steel Ferring (Steelrunner)! All credit to Devotary for his death, please go give her upvotes.

Cadmium Compounder was attacked, but was protected!

Worldhopper from Yolen was assassinated by the Synod! She was a Village Zinc Ferring (Sparker)!

Marne was deposed as the leader of the Synod! He was a Moderate Pacifist!

Ascendancy over the Synod is now open! As a flavor vote, today you may each cast a vote in purple to elect a new Synod leader, in addition to your regular lynch vote. The person with the most votes gets to lead the Synod.

Day 4 has begun! It will end in 48 hours, on Wednesday the 22nd of August at 9 PM EDT.

Player List:

1. Rathmaskal as Laksam, an ash sweeper from the Eastern streets Village Steel Ferring

2. Xinoehp512 as Ereheman Tresni, a man with his priorities backwards
3. Steeldancer as Steel, the fastest sculpture of a squid wrought entirely in steel in all of Tathingdwen
4. Randuir as Zihel, a worldhopper looking for his twin brother
5. I think I am here as Itiah VI, a missionary on a mission Village Steel Ferring
6. Bort as Tee Mai, a tailor specialising in offensive clothing
7. Cadmium Compounder as Ethin Hallil, a cadmium Feruchemist and SCUBA diver
8. _Stick_ as Stick, President of the Tathingdwen Tautological Society of Tautology
9. Jondesu as Remart, a man back from vacation armed with vaguely ominous statements
10. Kidpen as HanTor, a lonely Kandra that’s definitely not Spiked, nope Spiked Zinc Ferring

11. Elandera as Era, an old woman who claims to have been alive before the reign of the Lord Ruler Village Pewter Ferring
12. Snipexe as Snip, a fabric cutter in the local quilt shop Village Iron Ferring

13. Worldhopper from Yolen as Tarin, a Sparker with a wonderful, awful idea Village Zinc Ferring
14. Alvron as Izzy Dedyet, who is not dead, feels happy, and thinks she'll go for a walk Village Full Feruchemist

15. Phatterner as Citona Vinid, a seemingly faithful follower of the Lord Ruler
16. Ark1002 as Kardik, a Full Feruchemist
17. Araris Valerian as Valwyn, an honest rug merchant Spiked Pewter Ferring; Rug Merchant
18. Coop772 as Irion, a Full Feruchemist with hidden potential Village Copper Ferring

19. Sart, a stuttering Nameless

Edited August 21, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Sart he/him]

Hmm... Not sure why Cadmium Compounder didn't die. The only two scenarios are tapping Pewter, or being protected by someone else. If they tapped Pewter, they did it during the day, which doesn't make much sense. He wasn't under that much suspicion beforehand, so that would take some planning. If he did in fact tap Iron, t doubt the Elims would have two of the same role. Of course, he could be a Spiked Full Feruchemist, which would balance out a Full Feruchemist in the Synod. On the other hand, if he was actually protected, who protected him? I was told Cycle 1 that you couldn't self-protect, so that's off the table. In conclusion, I'm not sure what's going on, but I would like an explanation.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Ok, looking at Kidpen's stuff, he gave us pretty much nothing. Not real helpful. I'm guessing we started off with 4 elims given 19 players (5 seems a little much for that, and 3 seems to be just too small), so that means given that guess we have 2 more elims left. 
From the kill on Worldhopper, I'm inclined to think good of the synod (given that worldhopper was acting fairly suspicious), but at the same time, an elim synod member might still exist. I just don't believe that Araris's comment can be used to clear all the members of the synod, and for that reason Phatt is still high on my suspicion list, although they do have in their favor that they admitted to being a synod member, and in general elims tend not to share information with the village (although assuming that is always true has bitten me in the back before *ahem*AG4*ahem* ). 
I'm not sure what to make of Cadmium Compounder being attacked and then protected. It's probably best not to read into that too much, as that could have resulted from a variety of scenarios. 

So, now I'm going to conduct analysis! I will post my thoughts as I find them. 
First thing I notice is that Phatt did vote on Araris day one, and kept the vote on them pretty much the entire day, which is a nice thing. But, that doesn't clear them. The reasoning is really flimsy, and there was probably no real danger for Araris with no real umph behind the vote. The other thing I notice is that Sart's RP thing does make his posts really hard to read (a strategy I myself have employed to some effect before) so I am slightly suspicious of that. 
Looking at night 1, one thing that sticks out to me is CadComs point that he thinks 2 people are elims within a bunch of individuals that now only me and rand are left in. I know I'm village, so if CadCom was right about 2 elims, then Rand would be the other eliminator. However, that reasoning is super flimsy and obviously doesn't actually indicate that Rand is an elim. But it is possible that that caught elim attention, but they didn't want scrutiny to fall down on it immediately, so they set him lower on their kill list and had one of their members send in a generic kill on him... and as I explain out this scenario it gets flimsier and flimsier. Probably not too likely. Still, it is still possible that Rand is an elim, but I already knew that before this post. 

Day 2: Once again I note that Araris was the third to vote on Rand in a stream of votes. If they were team mates, that feels like it would be a really really stupid thing to do. But at the same time, Rand probably wasn't in any actual danger of being lynched at that point. So, while it makes me lean village on Rand, I still hesitate to clear Rand entirely. Rand's response to being voted on is pretty calm, but doesn't make me lean towards an elim-village interaction or an elim-elim interaction. 
However, in Rand's defense, he is constantly suspicious of Kidpen, so I'm going to conclude that he is most likely village. Throwing Kidpen under the bus like that isn't out of the question for an eliminator to do, but it seems more likely to be a village thing. 
Stick is the first one to vote on Kidpen Day 2, where he doesn't get lynched but that means she is most likely village, especially given how Araris curved the lynch away from kidpen. Also, of the pileup on Snipexe, I'm most suspicious of Xino. 
Moving on to Night 2, I got nothing cool. 

Day 3: Ok. So Phatt is the first one to vote on Kidpen, which indicates strongly village, especially as although he goes back to voting on me, he eventually goes back to voting on Kidpen. Now, the weird one is Sart. Sart wasn't really tunneling on Phatt at all, but decides to change his vote to Stick... Yeah I'm suspicious of Sart out of day 3, and am thinking Phatt is likely village, although that does not change the fact that being a synod player does not mean you are cleared. I am actually thinking it is fairly possible that there is another spiked in the synod doc, and we don't know the other two people in there yet, but yeah. 

Night 3: Nothing really? Although Jondesu posting does make me think that it is probably likely that one of the quieter players is also an elim. 

Ok, Sart posted before me a while ago, but based on the evidence I have collected, I'm going to vote Sart. We'll see if what sart said will change my mind.  
 

Edited August 21, 2018 by Steeldancer
formatting

[Bort he/him]

7 hours ago, Sart said:

Hmm... Not sure why Cadmium Compounder didn't die. The only two scenarios are tapping Pewter, or being protected by someone else. If they tapped Pewter, they did it during the day, which doesn't make much sense. He wasn't under that much suspicion beforehand, so that would take some planning. If he did in fact tap Iron, t doubt the Elims would have two of the same role. Of course, he could be a Spiked Full Feruchemist, which would balance out a Full Feruchemist in the Synod. On the other hand, if he was actually protected, who protected him? I was told Cycle 1 that you couldn't self-protect, so that's off the table. In conclusion, I'm not sure what's going on, but I would like an explanation.

You answered your own question here. Why didn't CadCom die? Because he was protected, or he did something that makes little sense. Most logical explanation is therefore, he was protected. Why? Who knows? My question is though, why did you want him dead? There were others who are more suspicious than CadCom. Hell, you even admit that he wasn't under much suspicion, so what was the point in trying to kill him?

Until we can get a reasonable explanation as to why this happened, Sart. 

[Sart he/him]

1 hour ago, Bort said:

You answered your own question here. Why didn't CadCom die? Because he was protected, or he did something that makes little sense. Most logical explanation is therefore, he was protected. Why? Who knows? My question is though, why did you want him dead? There were others who are more suspicious than CadCom. Hell, you even admit that he wasn't under much suspicion, so what was the point in trying to kill him?

Until we can get a reasonable explanation as to why this happened, Sart. 

Cadmium Compounder jumped way up in suspicion when he kept his vote on Randuir late in the cycle. He had the last post that Day, and stated that he saw no reason to move his vote. Now, I'm not sure if that means he was an Eliminator, but that post stuck out like a sore thumb. Now we have evidence that he was attacked and protected last night. Since it's unlikely to be Pewter tapping, that only leaves us with one other option. Someone protected Cadmium last night. In that case, who benefits from him being protected? He was one of the main suspects, so protecting him would suck if it turned out he was a Spiked. In my mind, there's only two likely scenarios. Either his Spiked buddy protected him, or Cadmium is a member of the Snyod. Since the Synod has killed a villager, we can no longer be sure of their innocence. I hope they are innocent, but we can't be sure of it.

I wasn't the one to attack Cadmium Compounder. I had planned on killing Worldhopper, but someone role-blocked me, plus the Synod took care of them any way. I'm probably going to get lynched, and there's not much I can do about it. I can still give my suspicions, although they might be a poison pill until after I'm dead.

Unfortunately, I doubt that everyone voting on Kidpen is innocent. Even if we assume that Cadmium is guilty, there's probably still another Spiked left. Kidpen was trying to kill Steel, so that seems unlikely to me. Ark is a new player which makes me think his mistakes are based on newness and not malice. Jondesu has been voting on Cadmium. And I know I'm innocent. I'm even doubting my read on Cadmium at this point. I wish I was guilty, but I'm unfortunately a Villager.

[Bort he/him]

But your vote was on Rand too. Why would you vote alongside your biggest suspicion?

[DeTess she/her]

(warning, tired Randuir is tired, so expect  this post to be a lot more rambling and less coherent than my usual ones)

First, I've got a theory about why Cadcom didn't die that is in fact very logical. However, I'd like to hear his explanation first, as if I'm wrong I'd rather not feed him a  logical cover story.

Now, on to an analysis of Kidpen. Unlike Araris' death, kidpen's lynch was reasonably well telegraphed, so I think we should be more wary of how we interpret his posts, especially those in his last cycle.

In C1, Kidpen's only notable outgoing interactions where with people now dead, so there's not too much to be gained there. Likewise, in C2 the main interactions was a late vote on snip. In fact, apart from a counter to an accusation by me during C2, her only notable interactions with people are in C3, which is the cycle where I'd expect her to start obfuscating information in case she got lynched.

In C3, his main stated suspicions where on Steeldancer and Sart, with also a small comment of suspicion on something I said (though the very argument he used was something I'd brought up in my opening post of the game as well). I don't think either Sart or Steeldancer can be cleared based on this interaction because at that point in the game I'd be expecting Kidpen to start laying false trails.

So, all in all my conclusions on this one are rather sparse. Assuming Kidpen, or someone on kidpen's team, saw the kidpen lynch coming and suggested kidpen start working on laying false trails, I reckon one of Steel and Sart is probably evil. Kidpen adjusting his analysis would certainly account for the discrepancy between them claiming it was pretty much ready to post at the end of N2, and the analysis only turning up halfway through D3.

If I assume that the elims didn't expect the Kidpen lynch to happen until the end of the cycle, then I'd say Sart is probably cleared, while Kidpen's comments on steel are NAI. I'm currently leaning towards the 'saw it coming' assumption though.

I've seen several people say that they considered steeldancer cleared based on interactions with Kidpen, but I'm really not seeing it. Can someone give me some examples of these interactions?

[phattemer]

I will say this much: the Synod attempted to kill Sart last night, but we were very unlucky. As far as I know, there was no village kill directed at Cadmium, and the fact that they were protected is not suspicious.

Despite how much I suspected Sart, as of this day I now have reason not to: I successfully roleblocked him last night and yet the Spiked kill and another attack that was most likely from the Spiked went through. Unless someone admits to attacking Cadmium, there's no way for Sart to be Spiked. I'm assuming the Spiked have two members left and they prioritize thinning our herd, which means one of them put in an attack and the other did the Spiked kill.

With that in mind, I'll vote and urge others to vote for Steeldancer. The last thing Kidpen did, knowing he was dead, was attempt to distance himself from Steel, and adding that to all the other reasons I've posted in earlier cycles to be suspicious of them, I'm confident they're one of the remaining Spiked.

Adding my vote for Synod leader: phattemer. A bit about myself: I've been a successful Synod member since its founding, and I was the driving force behind the execution of a highly dangerous Spiked ferring. I am entirely devoted to the organization and would be eternally grateful for the opportunity to serve as its leader.

Edited August 21, 2018 by phattemer

[CadCom he/him]

15 hours ago, Sart said:

Hmm... Not sure why Cadmium Compounder didn't die. The only two scenarios are tapping Pewter, or being protected by someone else. If they tapped Pewter, they did it during the day, which doesn't make much sense. He wasn't under that much suspicion beforehand, so that would take some planning. If he did in fact tap Iron, t doubt the Elims would have two of the same role. Of course, he could be a Spiked Full Feruchemist, which would balance out a Full Feruchemist in the Synod. On the other hand, if he was actually protected, who protected him? I was told Cycle 1 that you couldn't self-protect, so that's off the table. In conclusion, I'm not sure what's going on, but I would like an explanation.

So I just want to respond to this by arguing that there already was one Pewter Ferring on the Elim team, and one on the village team. If there is a third, then it's most likely they're a villager. No matter whose team I'm on, Wouldn't I have an interest to self-protect. Honestly I agreed with all the suspicions thrown last day cycle, and didn't have a reason to try to protect anyone else, because I had no idea who the Elims would try to attack.

3 hours ago, randuir said:

First, I've got a theory about why Cadcom didn't die that is in fact very logical. However, I'd like to hear his explanation first, as if I'm wrong I'd rather not feed him a  logical cover story.

Yes, Rand, my abstentions from voting D1 and D2 were intentional. Does that confirm your theory?

RP

Ethin Hallil stood up among the confusion and cleared his throat. "I would like to make two motions to vote for the new Synod Leader. First motion, would be myself. I believe that I would be a great leader. I know my way around Scadrial, as I have SCUBA dived in many of the canals across most dominances, and I've also gone to many of the oceans. I've managed to stay under the lord ruler's Radar in my travels, and have never been questioned by an inquisitor. I know many secrets of Scadrial and would be a great leader. 

"The other motion I offer to vote is for Count Olaf. He has been among us for a long time. Longer than the Spiked could have possibly been infiltrating us. I know that Phattemer has shown himself to be one of us. But we can never guarantee that! Better to go with someone we all know and trust"

Edited August 21, 2018 by Cadmium Compounder

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

As a side note, regarding the new Synod chair:

-The player elected, if it’s an actual player, will not join the Synod members in their doc. 

-VAFO on any roles or abilities electing a particular entity might give the elected player, entity, the Synod, or the players as a whole. 

-Votes for Synod chair don’t count against metalmind fill conditions, and aren’t influenced by any vote manipulation.

-Cadmium Compounder has made the correct decision with his vote. Nevertheless, Devotary insists I tell you that another non-player, Leidene, is also vying for Synod chair. You could vote for her...but Olaf is clearly the superior choice, if you’re electing NPCs.  

[phattemer]

phattemer, Count Olaf.

And while I've got you, please do consider what I said about Sart and think about changing votes from him.

[Jondesu he/him]

Remart snorted. The Synod was losing its power slowly but surely. Why not elect someone such as Count Olaf and watch the chaos ensue?

[Steeldancer he/him]

6 hours ago, phattemer said:

I will say this much: the Synod attempted to kill Sart last night, but we were very unlucky. As far as I know, there was no village kill directed at Cadmium, and the fact that they were protected is not suspicious.

Despite how much I suspected Sart, as of this day I now have reason not to: I successfully roleblocked him last night and yet the Spiked kill and another attack that was most likely from the Spiked went through. Unless someone admits to attacking Cadmium, there's no way for Sart to be Spiked. I'm assuming the Spiked have two members left and they prioritize thinning our herd, which means one of them put in an attack and the other did the Spiked kill.

With that in mind, I'll vote and urge others to vote for Steeldancer. The last thing Kidpen did, knowing he was dead, was attempt to distance himself from Steel, and adding that to all the other reasons I've posted in earlier cycles to be suspicious of them, I'm confident they're one of the remaining Spiked.

Adding my vote for Synod leader: phattemer. A bit about myself: I've been a successful Synod member since its founding, and I was the driving force behind the execution of a highly dangerous Spiked ferring. I am entirely devoted to the organization and would be eternally grateful for the opportunity to serve as its leader.

You're assuming an eliminator put in the kill on Cadmium Compounder. 
And your claim of action gives us further reason to kill Sart. However Sart flips, it will give us lots of information. If he turns village, it means you are almost definitely village. If he turns elim, you're likely elim, and I'm likely to be village. Even if Sart isn't the top suspicion, I'm pretty sure killing sart will be highly informational.  

Edited August 21, 2018 by Steeldancer

[phattemer]

I'm assuming that, had a villager put in the kill on Cadmium, they would have said so since doing so would un-clear Sart, as I specifically asked in my first post.