Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Maybe they wanted to screw with discussion?  We can assume it probably had to do with the extended cycle.  Maybe one of the elims tried to kill another because they got upset?  That would make sense.

[Walin he/him]

Wait, are Jeskeri considered the only remaining kill, and thus are the village kill until the Derethi are dead?

 

EDIT: I mean, if they are remaining. We still don’t know yet.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Walin
10-second edit

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 Jeskeri would be a pitifully small number of elims. Perhaps, as Pyromancer says, this was the cause of the extended cycle. I don't see any reason to think a kill order on a fellow Jeskeri wouldn't go through, so I doubt that's it. Perhaps the player to place the order accidentally submitted three actions and thus got their kill action blocked? It is also possible that all other remaining Jeskeri are inactive. I don't think they would be purposefully stalling with the Derethi seven unconverted players away from winning.

Speaking of the Derethi, who are still the main threat, I would assume that the priest scanned someone on the Gyorn/Odiv suspect list. I believe @little wilson and @TheMightyLopen are the priest's contacts and can inform us of the scan results.

2 minutes ago, Walin said:

Wait, are Jeskeri considered the only remaining kill, and thus are the village kill until the Derethi are dead?

The Jeskeri are not the village kill. It would be helpful if they managed to kill off the Derethi, but their win condition is still to kill every non-Cultist.

[Elenion he/him]

I second Devotary: the Jeskeri might have the same short-term goal as us, to stop the Derethi from converting everyone, but at the end of the day they're still trying to kill us all too.

I can see three possible reasons why the Jeskeri might not have put in a kill:

1. Inactivity/miscommunication. Not too common among elim teams because of the doc, but it still can happen

2. They didn't want to give us any information about who they wanted dead. I find this one doubtful, because at this point we aren't really interested in them much.

3. They didn't want to hit a non-Convert, kill an active villager, or otherwise help the Derethi. This one is plausible.

2 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Maybe they wanted to screw with discussion?  We can assume it probably had to do with the extended cycle.  Maybe one of the elims tried to kill another because they got upset?  That would make sense.

I doubt it. I can only remember two times when an elim even planned on killing an elim: MR28 (me when I was a traitor who could defect to the village) and LG26 (Joe committed suicide because he believed his faction could not win).

 

Edit: @King Cole The forum says you're on but you haven't posted in a few cycles. Have you been converted to the Derethi?

Edited April 27, 2018 by Elenion
added edit line

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

6 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

3 Jeskeri would be a pitifully small number of elims. Perhaps, as Pyromancer says, this was the cause of the extended cycle. I don't see any reason to think a kill order on a fellow Jeskeri wouldn't go through, so I doubt that's it. Perhaps the player to place the order accidentally submitted three actions and thus got their kill action blocked? It is also possible that all other remaining Jeskeri are inactive. I don't think they would be purposefully stalling with the Derethi seven unconverted players away from winning.

Speaking of the Derethi, who are still the main threat, I would assume that the priest scanned someone on the Gyorn/Odiv suspect list. I believe @little wilson and @TheMightyLopen are the priest's contacts and can inform us of the scan results.

The Jeskeri are not the village kill. It would be helpful if they managed to kill off the Derethi, but their win condition is still to kill every non-Cultist.

No news yet. I'll PM them and see whats going on. In the meantime, probably best if we don't solely rely on the Priest and get discussion going. 

Recapping the suspects:

Walin, Straw, Imperial Mint, King Cole, Coop, Steel(Citizen claim, unverifiable), Pryo(same as Steel), Seonid(very unlikely), Mraize(very unlikely), Lopen(only Gyorn if Odiv is Prince), Elenion(similar to Lopen).

I think thats it. At the moment, I'd like to hear more from Straw. If he's not the Gyorn or Odiv, I might consider Steel, because I've had a weird vibe from him. Stink is impossible to read. King Cole seems too inactive to be a power role, imo, but that doesn't mean we should ignore him. Walin, eh, not sure what I think about him. Coop, did have a Korathi Pendant, but used it, which would be weird for the Gyorn to do. Pyro feels village to me. Elenion, possible, as he could be using an Odiv Prince's power as a cover(I'm almost always suspicious of Len :P).

[Steeldancer he/him]

My thoughts have been many. I've considered each of the remaining suspicious people who might be Gyorn. And I have decided that Imperial Mint is most likely to be the Gyorn. He hasn't had much to say, which is a little out of place? But he has been around, and it would make sense that he might try to hang in the background and put in actions. 

[Seonid he/him]

I'm actually thinking that Steel could very well be the Gyorn.

[Kidpen he/him]

I think Straw, with a second choice of Imperial Mint. I'm not very good at gut reads, so this logic makes sense.

[Walin he/him]

10 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

[Discussion about the Jeskeri faction]

Speaking of the Derethi, who are still the main threat, I would assume that the priest scanned someone on the Gyorn/Odiv suspect list. I believe @little wilson and @TheMightyLopen are the priest's contacts and can inform us of the scan results.

The Jeskeri are not the village kill. It would be helpful if they managed to kill off the Derethi, but their win condition is still to kill every non-Cultist.

Alright, I’m PM-ing little wilson, as Lopen already knows what we’re asking for: a scan. By the way, does anybody want to start a PM train? Playing telephone with important information? Well...it seems like a bad idea, but I still want to do it. Fun an games, etc.

Ok, so the Jeskeri, while still being the only kill, *are* eliminators. Are we planning on lynching them yet, if discovered? As the convert tally is at 10/18, let’s say the Jeskeri are dead this cycle.

We Lynch a villager on accident, then there are 17 people left. Two converts the next Day cycle, it’s 12/17.

Here’s a table, for clarity:

3 Jeskeri, Mislynch

N6: 10/17

D7: 12/17, get the Gyorn

N7: 12/16

D8: 13/16

After somehow killing the Gyorn, we have 2 Day cycles (including D8) to get them.

————————-

4 Jeskeri, Mislynch

N6: 10/17, mistaken kill

D7: 12/16, get the Gyorn

N8: 12/15, mistaken kill

D9: 13/14, one shot left

 

...Hmm. So with Jeskeri left, we have one extra death to get in before the Derethi win condition is reached. I say we discuss as thoroughly as we can this Night, since it’s in the best interest of the Jeskeri to heed that advice rather than kill the ones who are most helpful to us.

Until the Derethi Converters are dead, or the Jeskeri are dead first, they are the helpers in the shadows.

[Walin he/him]

12 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

[Discussion about the Jeskeri faction]

Speaking of the Derethi, who are still the main threat, I would assume that the priest scanned someone on the Gyorn/Odiv suspect list. I believe @little wilson and @TheMightyLopen are the priest's contacts and can inform us of the scan results.

The Jeskeri are not the village kill. It would be helpful if they managed to kill off the Derethi, but their win condition is still to kill every non-Cultist.

The Jeskeri are not the village kill. It would be helpful if they managed to kill off the Derethi, but their win condition is still to kill every non-Cultist.

Alright, I’m PM-ing little wilson, as Lopen already knows what we’re asking for: a scan. By the way, does anybody want to start a PM train? Playing telephone with important information? Well...it seems like a bad idea, but I still want to do it. Fun an games, etc.

Ok, so the Jeskeri, while still being the only kill, *are* eliminators. Are we planning on lynching them yet, if discovered? As the convert tally is at 10/18, let’s say the Jeskeri are dead this cycle.

We Lynch a villager on accident, then there are 17 people left. Two converts the next Day cycle, it’s 12/17.

Here’s a table, for clarity:

3 Jeskeri, Mislynch

N6: 10/17

D7: 12/17, get the Gyorn

N7: 12/16

D8: 13/16

After somehow killing the Gyorn, we have 2 Day cycles (including D8) to get them.

————————-

4 Jeskeri, Mislynch

N6: 10/17, mistaken kill

D7: 12/16, get the Gyorn

N8: 12/15, mistaken kill

D9: 13/14, one shot left

 

...Hmm. So with Jeskeri left, we have one extra death to get in before the Derethi win condition is reached. I say we discuss as thoroughly as we can this Night, since it’s in the best interest of the Jeskeri to heed that advice rather than kill the ones who are most helpful to us.

Until the Derethi Converters are dead, or the Jeskeri are dead first, they are the helpers in the shadows.

[STINK he/him]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

And I have decided that Imperial Mint is most likely to be the Gyorn. He hasn't had much to say, which is a little out of place? But he has been around, and it would make sense that he might try to hang in the background and put in actions. 

Steel.

Imperial Mint hadn't seen anything saying that this Steel fellow was reputable, but couldn't recall anything that also made it clear that they were not. And since Mint was now apparently living in a world by themselves with no-one else to interact with, they also hadn't talked to anyone else about it. So they'd just chilled, for the most part.

And now this Steel had the nerve to accuse Mint of being whatever a Gyorn was? For one, he didn't even know what that was! Secondly, if Mint was one then Mint can assure you that there would be no such background for Mint. No, he would be the mysterious entity in that painting of his, slowly encroaching on all of you from both the inside and outside until all is Mint.

But alas, Mint has nothing.

[Kidpen he/him]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

Steel.

Imperial Mint hadn't seen anything saying that this Steel fellow was reputable, but couldn't recall anything that also made it clear that they were not. And since Mint was now apparently living in a world by themselves with no-one else to interact with, they also hadn't talked to anyone else about it. So they'd just chilled, for the most part.

And now this Steel had the nerve to accuse Mint of being whatever a Gyorn was? For one, he didn't even know what that was! Secondly, if Mint was one then Mint can assure you that there would be no such background for Mint. No, he would be the mysterious entity in that painting of his, slowly encroaching on all of you from both the inside and outside until all is Mint.

But alas, Mint has nothing.

Do you want me to PM you Mint? Cause I totally could.

[Steeldancer he/him]

33 minutes ago, STINK said:

Steel.

Imperial Mint hadn't seen anything saying that this Steel fellow was reputable, but couldn't recall anything that also made it clear that they were not. And since Mint was now apparently living in a world by themselves with no-one else to interact with, they also hadn't talked to anyone else about it. So they'd just chilled, for the most part.

And now this Steel had the nerve to accuse Mint of being whatever a Gyorn was? For one, he didn't even know what that was! Secondly, if Mint was one then Mint can assure you that there would be no such background for Mint. No, he would be the mysterious entity in that painting of his, slowly encroaching on all of you from both the inside and outside until all is Mint.

But alas, Mint has nothing.

“Since when did I ever say I was reputable?! I tried to eat you, I’ve taken multiple bribes, and assaulted people with rotten eggs. Also, encroaching until all is mint sounds awfully like Shu-Dereth, so my accusation remains where it lies.”

[Elenion he/him]

I had a brain wave this morning: what if the Gyorn isn't in the last 4 players? They're all less-active, and with the possible exception of Straw they haven't really shown any signs of being evil. The Gyorn has had this entire game to plan a cover-up for their role, so I really doubt they'd allow themselves to be caught in a net like the one we've put up. I was looking at Seonid's vote on Steel, wondering if Steel had a chance of being guilty even though he's not on the list, and then I realized: None of us actually have any proof that Steel passed me the Pendant. Everything he's told us, about what he did, when he did it, and why he did it, was stuff that I'd already claimed or speculated about in-thread. For all we know, the person who passed the Pendant to me is dead. Let's consider a hypothetical scenario where Steel is a Gyorn who started with a Seon only. The net is tightening, and Steel wants to get out before it gets too small. He knows that if he claims Seon only, we'll think he has a role, and as Gyorn he can't prove himself to be a different role (he could have his Odiv help him, but that might implicate the Odiv and not all roles work for false-claims). He then has a thought: if he can claim to have started with another item, that would support a vanilla claim, which would explain why he can't prove a role. He then looks for an item that he can claim to have started with that we can't test, and finds the perfect one: the Pendant that was passed to me. Assuming the real passer can't/doesn't counterclaim, it's the perfect cover: he knows the exact action to claim, time to claim to have it, and even possible reasons for doing it, all from information I've shared in the thread. This scenario fits perfectly with what we've seen: nobody claims to have passed me the Pendant until the net gets tight, and suddenly Steel steps forward to claim just in time to get himself off the Gyorn list before we start lynching people on it. Sorry, Steel if you really did pass me the Pendant, but the timing and unprovability of your claim doesn't seem to be just coincidence.

[Straw he/him]

Hmm... Elenion makes a good point. I’ll vote for Steel.

[Steeldancer he/him]

54 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I had a brain wave this morning: what if the Gyorn isn't in the last 4 players? They're all less-active, and with the possible exception of Straw they haven't really shown any signs of being evil. The Gyorn has had this entire game to plan a cover-up for their role, so I really doubt they'd allow themselves to be caught in a net like the one we've put up. I was looking at Seonid's vote on Steel, wondering if Steel had a chance of being guilty even though he's not on the list, and then I realized: None of us actually have any proof that Steel passed me the Pendant. Everything he's told us, about what he did, when he did it, and why he did it, was stuff that I'd already claimed or speculated about in-thread. For all we know, the person who passed the Pendant to me is dead. Let's consider a hypothetical scenario where Steel is a Gyorn who started with a Seon only. The net is tightening, and Steel wants to get out before it gets too small. He knows that if he claims Seon only, we'll think he has a role, and as Gyorn he can't prove himself to be a different role (he could have his Odiv help him, but that might implicate the Odiv and not all roles work for false-claims). He then has a thought: if he can claim to have started with another item, that would support a vanilla claim, which would explain why he can't prove a role. He then looks for an item that he can claim to have started with that we can't test, and finds the perfect one: the Pendant that was passed to me. Assuming the real passer can't/doesn't counterclaim, it's the perfect cover: he knows the exact action to claim, time to claim to have it, and even possible reasons for doing it, all from information I've shared in the thread. This scenario fits perfectly with what we've seen: nobody claims to have passed me the Pendant until the net gets tight, and suddenly Steel steps forward to claim just in time to get himself off the Gyorn list before we start lynching people on it. Sorry, Steel if you really did pass me the Pendant, but the timing and unprovability of your claim doesn't seem to be just coincidence.

Um... I don’t really have an answer for this? I did pass it to you. The only thing I can think of is that if I were the Gyorn, I wouldn’t risk claiming having done it at all. Heck, if I were the Gyorn, I would claim to be some other role or something. Now that I think about it, I might pretend to be a lover with my Odiv if I were the gyorn. But nah. I’m not the Gyorn. Or the Odiv for that matter, although I did get converted a few nights ago. It wouldn’t be worth being counter claimed if I were the Gyorn, my hope was to catch someone counterclaiming. Did someone counterclaim to you saying they passed it to you? Because they’re probably lying. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Steel.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Elenion said:

For all we know, the person who passed the Pendant to me is dead.

It is suspicious that Steeldancer waited until Day 5 to claim. Let's look at all the people who have died. We know Aman had a Jeskeri pendant and there's no reason to assume Arinian was lying about self poisoning, so let's add those in italics.

Quote

3. Eternum: Enerin the travelling storyteller Arelish Citizen with a Seon and Passphrase
6. Araris Valerian: Elysian the orphaned worldhopper Jeskeri Cultist with Korathi Pendant
12. Drake Marshall: Ateshao, an itinerant tinker. Jeskeri Cultist with no items
13. Bort: Daoate, a member of the Elantris City Guard  Arelish Citizen with Jeskeri Pendant and a Seon
14. Randuir: Saoir, the Royal Archivist Arelish Citizen with Korathi Pendant and Passphrase
18. Dalinar Kholin: Soren Porfiry, procrastinator extraordinaire. Jeskeri Cultist / Jindo Warrior with no items
21. Amanuensis: Dio Brando, a vampi- really hot guy. Arelish Priest who had been poisoned with Jeskeri pendant
22. Arinian: Eilen the traveler with the mute talking sword Arelish Dula who had been poisoned with Poison Vial

All the villagers have their items accounted for, so if the player who passed Elenion the pendant is dead, the three choices are Araris, Drake, and Dalinar. It seems that Jeskeri have fewer roles/items than villagers, so Araris and Dalinar are unlikely culprits. Drake though, has a suspicious lack of items, and since he wasn't under too much suspicion until he was scanned it's unlikely that he passed on his item. I think the only used up items for which we haven't discovered the source are the Derethi pendant used on Araris, the Jeskeri pendant that killed Eternum, and the Derethi pendant given to Elenion. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. I see no reason for Drake to have used a Derethi pendant on a teammate, so that's out. Drake using a Jeskeri pendant on Eternum is possible, but I think that's unlikely. A Jeskeri pendant would have allowed the Cultists to make a one time kill along with a normal attack that bypassed Jindo protection, and I don't really see them wasting that to kill a Seon holder on Night 2. That leaves the Derethi pendant given to Len as Drake's starting item.

In this hypothetical scenario where Steel is the Gyorn and Drake passed a pendant to Elenion, Steel would know who the original pendant holders were. He would also know who used a Derethi pendant on Araris and who gave a Derethi pendant to Elenion, as we got a convert tally on Night 1. By day 5, Steel figures that if the Jeskeri haven't yet claimed to have given Elenion the pendant they're not going to, and thus false claims in an attempt to get himself off the scanning list. I rate this scenario as 'entirely possible'. If somebody provides evidence that they were the one to kill Eternum, this theory would be upgraded to 'plausible'. Either way, I'd rather lynch Steel today rather than @Straw or   @STINK Imperial Mint, although I would like to hear more from the latter two.

[Walin he/him]

Well, I said I’d only make deciding votes. In that case, I’m not voting, since Steel is clearly more red than anyone else. I’m just gonna add a vote to me like most of the time.

Walin.

[Kidpen he/him]

Just now, Walin said:

Well, I said I’d only make deciding votes. In that case, I’m not voting, since Steel is clearly more red than anyone else. I’m just gonna add a vote to me like most of the time.

Walin.

I'll be very impressed if you vote for yourself everytime.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Stink still hasn’t made any claim at all, and you found my claim suspicious? Plus, didn’t I explain it? I didn’t want to claim because I didn’t see how it would do anything helpful, and there seemed to be more benefits to keeping it to myself. People always tell me not to claim when I claim, and to claim when I don’t claim. It really seems like I just can’t do this right. 

[little wilson she/her]

So my lack of activity this cycle has been due to managing a movie theatre and handling the Infinity War release. It's been fun. However, I'm off work for the night and while checking my PMs, I learned that Steel was scanned as Derethi. So he's definitely either the Gyorn or the Odiv and my money is on the Gyorn.

[Kidpen he/him]

Will change vote soon.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Kidpen, why did you change your mustache color?  Very suspicious...

[Kidpen he/him]

7 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Kidpen, why did you change your mustache color?  Very suspicious...

Mental Health Awareness Month

Edit: Straw. Steel.

Edited April 28, 2018 by Kidpen