Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Just so you know, Aman DID tell me who poisoned him. Sorry 

[Kidpen he/him]

Alright, vote weirdness. Devotary only had one vote even though two people voted for him. Probably Dula. Same with Arinian, but he is obviously a Dula. Can there be more than one? Probably. That's it other than my vote.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

36 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Just so you know, Aman DID tell me who poisoned him. Sorry 

Who did it then?

I'd like to point out that Arinian claimed to have Poisoned himself, and he had a role and no other items when he died. So the theory is alive and well.

About the lynch, well, I guess I don't have a problem with it except for the fact that we lynched someone who couldn't post in the thread which hampers discussion a bit. I didn't have a solid read on Arinian either way, so it kinda helps narrow things down for me at least. Other than that, I'm not sure what else there is to learn as I've only quickly skimmed through it. This is the first chance I've had to get on all day, so I'll try to go over things a little closer in a while.

[Kidpen he/him]

Just now, TheMightyLopen said:

Who did it then?

I'd like to point out that Arinian claimed to have Poisoned himself, and he had a role and no other items when he died. So the theory is alive and well.

About the lynch, well, I guess I don't have a problem with it except for the fact that we lynched someone who couldn't post in the thread which hampers discussion a bit. I didn't have a solid read on Arinian either way, so it kinda helps narrow things down for me at least. Other than that, I'm not sure what else there is to learn as I've only quickly skimmed through it. This is the first chance I've had to get on all day, so I'll try to go over things a little closer in a while.

I did have a PM with him. There was one post where I relayed what he wanted to say to the thread.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

Random thoughts as I read through last cycle:

-I'm wasn't entirely sold on Lopen's defense last last turn, but his turn towards analysis last turn doesn't give the vibe of an elim reaction. It sort of reminds me of how Lopen dealt with a false accusation in LG30.

-Still pretty sure Len is not Derethi.

-Still a neutral read on Devotary despite reading a fair bit from them.

-Curious as to who used a pendant the previous night. I wouldn't think that claiming would be dangerous because the item is only single-use.

-Ambivalent about the possibility of a Jeskeri Elantrian. I don't think there necessarily has to be one like people are saying, and I'm reluctant to lynch an Elantrian without a pretty good reason, but *shrug it would explain the timing of the attack on Aman.

-Since pendant use is public, Joe's claiming to have used a Korathi pendant is very probably truthful. However, if an elim/gyorn figured that there were no more priests, and they had a Korathi pendant on hand, this would probably be the most effective way to use it, so this doesn't reveal as much about alignment as I would like.

-Dalinar's post at the top of page 3 felt a little wierd to me.

-If there is a Jeskeri Elantrian, Devotary's analysis that either Arinian or an Elantrian is probably Jeskeri reads pretty village. If there isn't, then it could be read as an attempt to direct the lynches someplace where they will be much less useful.

-Overall, I'm sort of against lynching Elantrians, since even if one of them was an elim that'd be 1 in 4, and an Elantrian lynch gives very little information. That said, lynching Arinian is more understandable since apparently he told somebody he self-poisoned?

-Now that Len mentions it, I sort of agree that Seonid's doublepoke is odd, simply because Devotary really had been contributing more than most players that cycle. I could maybe see this as being similar to Steel's attempt to rouse people into voting, but I'm still wary of Seonid.

-Not a very active day cycle. I guess I wasn't the only person who had stuff going on.

-Also, my vote got prince'd. Was that you Kidpen (weren't you the one who claimed prince? don't really remember)

-I have a habit of neglecting RP the later I get into a game. I'd like to break this habit soon.

[Kidpen he/him]

4 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

-Also, my vote got prince'd. Was that you Kidpen (weren't you the one who claimed prince? don't really remember)

Lopen claimed prince. I am Monarch.

[Elenion he/him]

27 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

-Dalinar's post at the top of page 3 felt a little wierd to me.

Can you expound on what about it felt weird? I thought his guess that a Jeskeri was taken by the Shaod right as Aman was killed was a bit out there, but I'm more suspicious of Seonid's second vote on Devotary than DK's vote on her.

29 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

-Overall, I'm sort of against lynching Elantrians, since even if one of them was an elim that'd be 1 in 4, and an Elantrian lynch gives very little information. That said, lynching Arinian is more understandable since apparently he told somebody he self-poisoned?

I agree, for your reasons plus I'd rather lynch a Jeskeri that could drive discussion and kill normal people, not just one that could kill Elantrians only. If the Jeskeri kill starts hitting Elantrians only, or stops entirely, I'll start advocating for lynches on Elantrians.

32 minutes ago, Drake Marshall said:

-Also, my vote got prince'd. Was that you Kidpen (weren't you the one who claimed prince? don't really remember)

27 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

Lopen claimed prince. I am Monarch.

I don't remember Straw or King Cole voting, either. Just double-checked, and unless I'm blind we have 3 Princes running around, Lopen +2 others.

1 hour ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Just so you know, Aman DID tell me who poisoned him. Sorry 

I agree with Lopen: I don't see why you shouldn't tell us. It tells us that X player had X item at one point, and they had a free action that Night--not much for the Jeskeri to work with--but it might help us figure out whether or not the Jeskeri were involved in Aman's poisoning, something that the Jeskeri would already know.

[Kidpen he/him]

1 minute ago, Elenion said:

I don't remember Straw or King Cole voting, either. Just double-checked, and unless I'm blind we have 3 Princes running around, Lopen +2 others.

Weird that we didn't have two more before as well. It was really just Drought that was princed. Unless I'm forgetting something.

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, Kidpen said:

Weird that we didn't have two more before as well. It was really just Drought that was princed. Unless I'm forgetting something.

I haven't been taking notes on the lynch results, but I can't remember anyone mentioning it.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Uh, I didn't use my Princely powers this Cycle, so this is kinda weird. (Also, they could be Princesses. )

[Elenion he/him]

2 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Uh, I didn't use my Princely powers this Cycle, so this is kinda weird. (Also, they could be Princesses. )

Well that makes things interesting, then. IIRC the only way to actually move a player's vote is using Prince/Princess (), so that would mean we suddenly have 4 of them using their powers. And they don't seem to be coordinated: 1 on Arin, 1 on Steel, 1 on Devotary, 1 not doing anything at all. A part of me wants to think that 1 of the 4 has to be Jeskeri, but speculation like that is one of the things that lost the village MR28: every one of the 5 Scholars were village, so I'm hesitant.

[Lord Meeker he/him]

14 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I don't remember Straw or King Cole voting, either. Just double-checked, and unless I'm blind we have 3 Princes running around, Lopen +2 others.

Well the monarch has been busy.  could there be two monarchs? That would make this funnier. 

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, Mraize said:

Well the monarch has been busy.  could there be two monarchs? That would make this funnier. 

2 Monarchs that are also Lovers.  GMs, make it so!

[Lord Meeker he/him]

Just now, Elenion said:

2 Monarchs that are also Lovers.  GMs, make it so!

That would be the funniest thing. I have seen proof of at least one monarch. 

[Kidpen he/him]

Just now, Mraize said:

That would be the funniest thing. I have seen proof of at least one monarch. 

Facebook Relationship Status: Private.

Now I can't stop imagining the king of Arelon married to the queen with four kids trying to hide his relationship.

[Lord Meeker he/him]

Just now, Kidpen said:

Facebook Relationship Status: Private.

Now I can't stop imagining the king of Arelon married to the queen with four kids trying to hide his relationship.

Now look what you have stuck in my head!

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

23 minutes ago, Elenion said:

I haven't been taking notes on the lynch results, but I can't remember anyone mentioning it.

The previous two day cycles have only shown evidence of two prince/princesses. On Day 1, Honey Badger and Dalinar had their votes moved, and it was Droughtbringer and King Cole on Day 2. 

[Elenion he/him]

46 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The previous two day cycles have only shown evidence of two prince/princesses. On Day 1, Honey Badger and Dalinar had their votes moved, and it was Droughtbringer and King Cole on Day 2. 

Thanks for doing the leg work. That gives me a bit less pause then 3 Princes coming out of the blue this lynch, but 2 is still a lot of vote manip to suddenly show up like that. Maybe they were just announcing their presence: only the vote on Arin really had relevance to the lynch.

[little wilson she/her]

Let me be clear that when I suggested a Jeskeri Elantrian, I was not proposing that we go through and lynch all the Elantrians. I am generally rather opposed to lynching/killing based on role only. That said:

42 minutes ago, Elenion said:

A part of me wants to think that 1 of the 4 has to be Jeskeri, but speculation like that is one of the things that lost the village MR28: every one of the 5 Scholars were village, so I'm hesitant.

It's not speculation that's the problem. There's nothing inherently wrong with starting from a group of players like [Elantrians] or [Princes/Princesses] and looking closer at them to see which, if any, look suspicious. The problem occurs when you become convinced there's someone evil in that group when you have no actual proof for that and start actively killing them one by one, and never bothering to rethink your theory. I've done that at least twice before and neither ended terribly well for me (#lifelesscommandersneverforget #ripvillagesmokers). So yeah. Using that group as a jumping off point is fine, so long as you're careful about it. Just don't go advocate killing anyone for the sole reason that they belong to said group and someone in said group must be evil. That is what can cause the village to lose more often than not.

Anyway. I know who poisoned Aman and I'm currently debating sharing it. I think those requesting that information make a valid point and I don't think it's information that hurts. However, I will give the poisoner some time to share of their own volition. I will say that I'm currently leaning village on this player.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Analysis part 2:

Drake

Spoiler

 

First thing he talks about is Derethi converts and such, which isn't too alignment indicative, except that I don't think he'd be the Gyorn. I'm not 100% on that, but I'd look elsewhere first. Mostly RP's for a while. Poke voted Seonid after removing RP vote on Joe. Removes vote from Seonid once Seonid responds. This next one is interesting. He questions Araris about why not stopping endgame lynches on villagers isn't important. Araris responds, and then Drake answers him with a fairly calm explanation of his point of view. I really cannot get a read on whether this is alignment indicative either way, tbh. Anyways, next Drake asks someone to give him a rundown of what he missed during the end of D1 and start of N1, and Araris pops in with an explanation and then Drake thanks him. Eh, not much there either. Next post Drake explains that Bort was likely the Cultist kill so Araris is likely a Cultist because Aman used his Pendant, so he votes on Araris and says he feels vindicated for feeling Araris' comment about the Derethi Pendants were odd(although I seriously doubt Araris was just anything shifty with that, so a bit of a bad read on Drake for this). In the same post, he posts this:

Quote

I'm also a bit confused that the elims didn't just attack Aman, in light of how JinDo works. I'd say the elims didn't feel threatened by Aman... Except that doesn't make sense because it looks a bit like Aman just caught one of them.

I feel like Drake could have reached the conclusion that a lot of the Jeskeri have Korathi Pendants quite easily if he's considering the fact that the Jeskeri aren't worried about him, but instead he says that doesn't make sense because Aman caught one. I feel like him missing the most obvious logical conclusion for his own question is a little shady, like he doesn't want to draw attention to the possibility of the Jeskeri being hidden by scans. Drake also quotes Araris' post about poisoning Aman and suggests that Aman may have been poisoned by the eliminators(I thought he might have been too, tbh).

Another interesting quote from Drake:

Quote

If the Jeskeri had a priest, they could locate the Gyorn/Odiv twice as quickly as they otherwise might, as well as identifying converts, becoming near twice as effectve against the Derethi faction. One well-placed kill would effectively cripple the Derethi.

Either option sounds kind of overpowered for the faction in question, imo. Personally, I somewhat doubt we have an evil priest in play.

Here he kind of ignores the possibility that the Gyorn could have a Korathi/Jeskeri Pendant to hide their alignment, and jumps to the conclusion that there are no evil Priests. Feels to me like he might know there isn't a Jeskeri Priest and that's why he's as confident as he is that there isn't an evil Priest.

Another post that I don't really like very much:

Quote

Still undecided on the rest of your case, but I agree that this post by Lopen feels wrong. Too excited, as you say. Also, if Lopen was convinced that Araris was a cultist, why not vote on it? Why wait to see if the lynch gains momentum?

I was meaning to call Lopen on this in an analysis post yesterday, but I was preoccupied with other stuff IRL.

Because he's suspicious of me!  No, but seriously, not voting on Araris right away was not going to make any difference whatsoever, so I felt it was strange how he pointed that out as if it was suspicious.

And that's it until tonight, which you can read for yourselves. Oh, obviously, as my conclusion, I'm fairly suspicious of Drake. I feel like I might have gotten more biased as I went on, kind of what I think I did with Eternum, so I'm not as confident in this one, but yeah. I think he's suspicious.

 

Who else was I going to review...? I guess only Imperial Mint and HH. I think I'll just leave them for tomorrow, since I'm pretty tired.

I'm a little worried about being killed because of how active I am, so any Jindo Warriors out there, please consider protecting me! I know a few players may still suspect me, so it might seem like a weird time to kill me, but if the Cultists think I'm even getting close to being trusted by the village, they'd probably want to take me out now while I'm not as likely to be protected. Mostly I just want to suggest it for the IKYK involved.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Actually Aman didn't tell me who poisoned him.  I told him.

I poisoned Aman.

[Kidpen he/him]

2 minutes ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Actually Aman didn't tell me who poisoned him.  I told him.

I poisoned Aman.

Yay for plot twists. Also, is there anybody who hasn’t voted in any of the days?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I think the Elims wouldn't have started with the passphrase, so if anyone PMed me it that would pretty much confirm that person (unless they're the Gyorn).

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

5 hours ago, TheYoungPyromancer said:

Actually Aman didn't tell me who poisoned him.  I told him.

I poisoned Aman.

I kinda thought this might be the case, what with your whole "I could do my plan" thing back on N1 and Aman was saying it might help him. But then for some reason when you said you didn't do your plan, I totally believed you. xD

Why do you think the elims wouldn't start with the passphrase? It doesn't seem too powerful or anything, so I'm not sure I follow.

[Kidpen he/him]

2 minutes ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I kinda thought this might be the case, what with your whole "I could do my plan" thing back on N1 and Aman was saying it might help him. But then for some reason when you said you didn't do your plan, I totally believed you. xD

Why do you think the elims wouldn't start with the passphrase? It doesn't seem too powerful or anything, so I'm not sure I follow.

I think it was just a ploy to get someone to send the passphrase *ninja emoji cause I don't know how to do it*