Long Game 29: A Mote in Adonalsium's Eye

[Sart he/him]

I looked at the rules again. Are you claiming that you are an Awakener? That's the only role I can see that can find out planetary origins. Unless I am missing something.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I have my return journey on the train coming up, so I'll be inactive for this whole night cycle pretty much.

[Elenion he/him]

Alv, say what? Assuming that you're even telling the truth, you knew that Lopen was Odium, and you were going to let him live? I'd accuse you of being Lopen's convert, but if you were I doubt you'd announce your collaboration.

Although... @Kasimir if Alv is telling the truth, it appears my logic wasn't as flawed as you claimed. Why were you defending Lopen so strongly?

[Alvron]

5 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Alv, say what? Assuming that you're even telling the truth, you knew that Lopen was Odium, and you were going to let him live? I'd accuse you of being Lopen's convert, but if you were I doubt you'd announce your collaboration.

Let him live?  I didn't say that.  I said we could work together.  However odds are I would've let him live and even helped him as much as I could as I know how hard it is to have that role.  And I kinda owed him since when I did have that role, I sort of stabbed him in the back.   Odium isn't the enemy.  Or at least not the only one.  Hoid is the one I'm hunting.

[Elenion he/him]

You implied letting him live because you can't "work with" a dead man, plus the whole thing about moving your vote.

I disagree that Hoid is a bigger fish than Odium. I addressed this in a previous post: Odium needs to shatter shards, and that creates quite the body count. Hoid can't even kill. Odium can shatter shards that are helping us, like Devotion, while Hoid can only convert them. While I by no means say that we should ignore Hoid (faster kill = fewer converts to root out), getting Odium shattered or, even better, in the hands of a player without the special win con should take first priority.

Right now I'm not sure whether to be peeved that you wanted to help Odium or glad that you saved us the trouble of waiting for Lopen's role.  Right now I'm inclined not to ask that Voidbringer to kill you. But if I find out that you're lying about Lopen, I will do everything in my power to lynch you.

[Sart he/him]

This may sound harsh, but I think Odium needs to kill Alvron. He seems very neutral, which immediately makes me think that he is Autonomy. If we shatter him, we deal a devastating blow to both Autonomy and the 17th shard. I don't think anyone would intentionally revive Autonomy, so it would be a dead giveaway that the 17th shard has cultivation.

[Alvron]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

You implied letting him live because you can't "work with" a dead man, plus the whole thing about moving your vote.

I disagree that Hoid is a bigger fish than Odium. I addressed this in a previous post: Odium needs to shatter shards, and that creates quite the body count. Hoid can't even kill. Odium can shatter shards that are helping us, like Devotion, while Hoid can only convert them. While I by no means say that we should ignore Hoid (faster kill = fewer converts to root out), getting Odium shattered or, even better, in the hands of a player without the special win con should take first priority.

Right now I'm not sure whether to be peeved that you wanted to help Odium or glad that you saved us the trouble of waiting for Lopen's role.  Right now I'm inclined not to ask that Voidbringer to kill you. But if I find out that you're lying about Lopen, I will do everything in my power to lynch you.

I should've been clearer.  I meant let Odium live longer not the whole game.  Though I don't really see why not as long as he was helping.

19 minutes ago, Sart said:

This may sound harsh, but I think Odium needs to kill Alvron. He seems very neutral, which immediately makes me think that he is Autonomy. If we shatter him, we deal a devastating blow to both Autonomy and the 17th shard. I don't think anyone would intentionally revive Autonomy, so it would be a dead giveaway that the 17th shard has cultivation.

Harsh man harsh.  Also strange.  Odium, Autonomy and Survival are the ONLY ones that can't be converted by Hoid.  Odium is already dead. (Sorry Lopen) So if I was Autonomy then killing/splintering me would help Hoid immensely.  As long as at least one Shard is shattered, Hoid can't get their instant win.  And as long as Autonomy is alive and Converting, Hoid can't get their second win.  So what you are suggesting is something that Hoid would be very happy to see happen.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Alvron

[Master Elodin]

Okay, well, as you all know I haven't really contributed in the past few cycles. Looking forward, with school starting tomorrow and me needing to unpack and move into my new house, I am not sure that I will be able to be as active as I had hoped. With that said, I will still try to contribute as much as I can, but feel free to lynch or kill me as you all see fit.

[Elenion he/him]

Hmmm. If Alv is Auto, Odium does have a good reason to Shatter him, and it would hurt both Auto and the 17th in terms of Shards. But Alv does have a point that it would help Hoid in terms of conversions.

But if Alv isn't Auto, then what? Not good things, unless Alv is Hoid or another 17th. Then good things.

But really, this is Odium we're talking about. Is he likely to kill who we tell him to, anyway? Nope. Far too big of a chance of Honor defending our designated target. Odium is going to kill whomever the heck he wants.

[Sart he/him]

You just made my point. If Autonomy is shattered, Hoid can't get his first win condition. It doesn't affect Hoid for his second win condition either. His team needs to outnumber all the other villagers. It doesn't matter if they are working with Autonomy or not. If I'm reading the rules right, only the first Odium has the different win condition. So Odium should work with the village. Even if he has the same win condition, he should want to kill a likely Shard. Elodin, you do raise a good point though. If Alvron isn't Autonomy, this is a terrible plan. It seems likely to me that he is, but that might be inaccurate. I think it is worth the risk, but that's up to Odium. Would be nice to know what role Alvron is claiming at least.

[Elenion he/him]

I think you mean Len, not Elodin.

Auto affects Hoid's second win con because they are unconvertable. While Hoid can convert Auto's followers, Auto can also convert Hoid's as long as they don't hold Shards. Also, since Auto can't convert Shards, Hoid will most likely avoid Auto's band because they won't hold any shards.

 Also, my interpretation of the rules has Lopen's shard passing to his convert, who has the special win con, because they would be Odium's last invest action.

@Alvron What is your role?

[Kasimir he/him]

Except that your logic was flawed. It doesn't mean flawed logic can't get a good result occasionally - it just makes you bloody lucky, especially since your logic pointed to a larger set of players than just Lopen. It's virtually just only a little better than running on blind gut - gut and the RNG can be right sometimes. It doesn't make it a good way to play, or a logical way to play. Had Alv come forward with his information earlier, that would have proved a better reason for a lynch than your reasoning.

Also, holy roleclaims Batman o.O I just drop my info in the thread and everyone does it? Seriously? >>

With Odium down, my suggestion is to finally focus on 17S. If Elenion keeps insisting Odium is an issue, I recommend Village kill roles target him. You can get rid of me later, if you like, but he is not helping the Village at best with his insistence on a continuing Odium witchhunt. (While Odium likely appointed a Champion, we don't know that for sure.) We only win this game if we get rid of Team Hoid. Everything else is a storming distraction, and the fact that he is so insistent that Odium is dangerous (essentially a glorified kill role) is at worst an attempt to shift the focus of this entire game onto something that has no direct relevance to our existing win condition. (Sure, you'd druther be converted. But that's neither here nor there - that's your personal preference rather than your win con.)

Storms, new Odium, you can get rid of him, if you like.

And my reasoning is actually the opposite of yours, Sart - I actually think getting rid of Cultivation is the way to stop Team Hoid's win con. As long as Cultivation exists, the chance to un-Shatter the Shards exist and while likely miniscule, is still there. Furthermore, two Shards have already been Shattered, which still nixes Team Hoid's first win con unless they can get Cultivation to work its magic. Shattering Autonomy now is a wonderful distraction which also serves no purpose, and that recommendation makes me intensely suspicious of you, since Autonomy's potential to convert helps us if we're playing against Team Hoid with their second win con. Remember, Autonomy can win with us or with Team Hoid. But if Shards remain Shattered, then having Team Hoid need to outnumber us, Survival, possibly Odium's Champion with the Shard, and an unlimited conversion Faction is immensely helpful.

In fact, Alv: you suggested that Cultivation would also be bad for us. Why did you think so?

Edited January 2, 2017 by Kasimir

[Elenion he/him]

Kas, I know that you disagree with my reasoning patterns, but so far they have proved to be more accurate than yours. So please, get down off your high horse and stop assuming that every opinion that goes against yours is "not helping the village at best" and must be silenced. I am doing my best to help the village, and if you are village than I expect you to be doing the same.

[Sart he/him]

Oh... I misunderstood how Autonomy worked. I don't like secret societies working in the shadows, but they are theoretically on our side. It's annoying, because they might delay the game to get their win condition, but they are not the biggest threat. That would belong to Hoid. The issue is, we've focused too much on Odium. Our best lead on Hoid has to be Jondesu. He's an odd convert choice, and an odder kill choice. Since he was vanilla, I suspect he was 17th shard to start with. He was very adamant about getting people in the thread. Perhaps Hoid hadn't responded yet.

GM, What would happen if Hoid went inactive?

[Alvron]

35 minutes ago, Sart said:

You just made my point. If Autonomy is shattered, Hoid can't get his first win condition. It doesn't affect Hoid for his second win condition either. His team needs to outnumber all the other villagers. It doesn't matter if they are working with Autonomy or not. If I'm reading the rules right, only the first Odium has the different win condition. So Odium should work with the village. Even if he has the same win condition, he should want to kill a likely Shard. Elodin, you do raise a good point though. If Alvron isn't Autonomy, this is a terrible plan. It seems likely to me that he is, but that might be inaccurate. I think it is worth the risk, but that's up to Odium. Would be nice to know what role Alvron is claiming at least.

The rules state that Hoid must outnumber all other factions.  Autonomy is another faction and one with, if I'm reading the rules right, an unlimited number of conversions.  It is almost impossible for Hoid to win as long as Autonomy is Converting people.  Shatter Autonomy and Hoid is a lot closer to winning.

25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

In fact, Alv: you suggested that Cultivation would also be bad for us. Why did you think so?

Because with Culty, Hoid can restore the other Shards and get his instant win.

[Aonar he/him]

2 minutes ago, Alvron said:

The rules state that Hoid must outnumber all other factions.  Autonomy is another faction and one with, if I'm reading the rules right, an unlimited number of conversions.  It is almost impossible for Hoid to win as long as Autonomy is Converting people.  Shatter Autonomy and Hoid is a lot closer to winning.

Because with Culty, Hoid can restore the other Shards and get his instant win.

How so? Autonomy isn't spontaneously putting new players in the game, is he?  The 17th appear to work like a standard Elim faction; they need to outnumber the Village. In this case, the village happens to be broken into three distinct subfactions, but nothing really has changed. Shattering Auto has little/no impetus on how quickly Hoid can win, as I understand it. That seems like an unusual mistake for you to make, Vron.

[Alvron]

3 minutes ago, Aonar Faileas said:

How so? Autonomy isn't spontaneously putting new players in the game, is he?  The 17th appear to work like a standard Elim faction; they need to outnumber the Village. In this case, the village happens to be broken into three distinct subfactions, but nothing really has changed. Shattering Auto has little/no impetus on how quickly Hoid can win, as I understand it. That seems like an unusual mistake for you to make, Vron.

Autonomy:

The incessant meddling of the other Shards on their shardworlds is an affront to your sense of liberty. Or autonomy, whichever suits you. You will not cease your interference until all of the Shards can no longer interfere in the workings of the Cosmere. Your meddling might go against your principles, but all things are for the greater good in the end, right/

 

Win Con: Have all living players converted.

Autonomy’s conversion ability is a Shardic ability, not a faction ability, but may be used any number of times. It may not convert other Shards or Hoid. If Autonomy converts Odium’s Champion or a member of the 17th Shard, the player gains access to the doc and win condition, but does not lose their previous win condition.

 

17th Shard:

Hoid has returned, and his once defunct cult of followers has been given a new lease on life. You have been trusted with the task of...liberating the Shards from their current owners so that they can be reforged into Adonalsium. God must be reborn, or the consequences will be dire.

 

Win Condition: Acquire all 10 Unshattered Shards. If not possible, outnumber all other factions combined.

The 17th Shard has a Faction Conversion ability. It may convert any player except Odium, Autonomy, or Survival. This Conversion may only be used a limited amount of times - the exact number will be determined by the number of players in the game. If the 17th Shard converts Odium’s Champion or a convert of Autonomy (including an Agent), the player gains access to the doc and win condition, but does not lose their previous win condition.

As I hope you can see, Autonomy can keep Converting players while Hoid has a limited number.  As long as Autonomy has more Converts that Hoid has, Hoid can't win.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Alvron

[Aonar he/him]

...Dude. Like I said, that's not the point.  Of course Hoid can't win while Auto has more converts than him. It's all factions combined though. Hoid also can't win while there's more villagers than 17th. He can't win while there's less villagers and less Autonomous (Thoughts? I like the term, and as of yet, I haven't seen an agreed upon one bandied about. ) than 17th, but more overall. Auto's converts don't matter. The total amount of persons in one faction versus another is not changing, as the village, Autonomy, and Odium are all lumped together for the purposes of the 17th's wincon. 

The only possible thing I can see you alluding to is that Auto can convert 17ths, and this might prevent them from winning. That could be true, although it feels wonky game balance-wise. @Seonid Do players having the 17th/Auto dual wincon count as part of Hoid's faction, or Autonomy's, in terms of the 17th's wincon?

[Sart he/him]

I think you're misreading that. Hoid has to outnumber all other factions. It doesn't matter if people are on Autonomy's side or not. If they aren't in the 17th shard, Hoid is against them. You are right that Hoid has a limited number of conversions though. At a certain point, he will run out of gas. However, it's likely that he will save a conversion as a defense against trust groups. That makes our lives a little bit easier, as we hopefully won't have to worry about a night kill unless he converts a vigilante.

...and ninja'd

[Elenion he/him]

Just guessing, I bet that Hoid has only enough conversions to get himself up to standard-elim-team size, so 4 or maybe 5 uses. As long as we have at least 10 or 12 people alive, then, Hoid can't win. He has to rely on kills to get the playing field that low.

[Droughtbringer]

32 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Just guessing, I bet that Hoid has only enough conversions to get himself up to standard-elim-team size, so 4 or maybe 5 uses. As long as we have at least 10 or 12 people alive, then, Hoid can't win. He has to rely on kills to get the playing field that low.

This post sets me on edge. If Elenion is actually part of the 17th, not saying you are, and he knows that the 17th actually has 6 uses then we run into the problem of someone attempting to lure us into a false sense of security, if we say, 'oh we will be safe as long as we have 12 people left' then we could very easily run ourselves down to 12 people, only to realize that the 17th actually has 7 people, fulfilling their win condition, and allowing them to win. This isn't a caution against Len, but a caution against assuming that we have a 'safe number' that as long as we don't go below it we are fine.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, Elenion said:

Kas, I know that you disagree with my reasoning patterns, but so far they have proved to be more accurate than yours. So please, get down off your high horse and stop assuming that every opinion that goes against yours is "not helping the village at best" and must be silenced. I am doing my best to help the village, and if you are village than I expect you to be doing the same.

Except I'm not assuming every opinion that goes against mine is not helping the Village at best. That's being charitable by assuming you are in fact a Villager who has a different take on the game, even if it's wrong. If you disagree about it being wrong, that's your problem. You are playing like a member of the 17th Shard, and that's fair grounds to ask for a suspicion kill or a lynch.

You expect me to do the same? Sure. I think the best way to help the Village is to get rid of people who are playing like 17th Shard. If you disagree, that's your prerogative. The kill roles will decide. All I can do is to convince them that I think this is the best for the Village since we're playing against Team Hoid, rather than anyone else. If your logic holds, then you shouldn't be trying to silence how they want to play either, no?

[Seonid he/him]

1 hour ago, Aonar Faileas said:

...Dude. Like I said, that's not the point.  Of course Hoid can't win while Auto has more converts than him. It's all factions combined though. Hoid also can't win while there's more villagers than 17th. He can't win while there's less villagers and less Autonomous (Thoughts? I like the term, and as of yet, I haven't seen an agreed upon one bandied about. ) than 17th, but more overall. Auto's converts don't matter. The total amount of persons in one faction versus another is not changing, as the village, Autonomy, and Odium are all lumped together for the purposes of the 17th's wincon. 

The only possible thing I can see you alluding to is that Auto can convert 17ths, and this might prevent them from winning. That could be true, although it feels wonky game balance-wise. @Seonid Do players having the 17th/Auto dual wincon count as part of Hoid's faction, or Autonomy's, in terms of the 17th's wincon?

17th Shard players count only as 17th Shard for purposes of outnumbering, no matter who they are converted to.

[Elenion he/him]

Drought brings up a good point: you can't fully trust my guesses if you don't trust me. I'll continue to use them for my own projections, though.

Kas, I agree with you. If the kill roles want to come for me, they can. That's their prerogative. If you believe I'm 17th, that's your read. Really our back-and-forth isn't accomplishing anything, so let's just spend our times instead focusing on our logical deductions, because those are what are going to win us this game.

Because it seems like every other player wants to focus on Hoid, I will shift my attentions there. I hope to have a suspicions list sometime tomorrow.

[Droughtbringer]

4 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Drought brings up a good point: you can't fully trust my guesses if you don't trust me. I'll continue to use them for my own projections, though.

Kas, I agree with you. If the kill roles want to come for me, they can. That's their prerogative. If you believe I'm 17th, that's your read. Really our back-and-forth isn't accomplishing anything, so let's just spend our times instead focusing on our logical deductions, because those are what are going to win us this game.

Because it seems like every other player wants to focus on Hoid, I will shift my attentions there. I hope to have a suspicions list sometime tomorrow.

It's not necessarily that I don't trust you, it's that I don't trust guesses, they can easily lead us into a false sense of security, and cause us to let the 17th win.