Long Game 2: The Devil's Den

[Mailliw73]

Cessie could be a spiked Thug, couldn't she?

[Herowannabe]

@Maill: No. If a misting gets spiked they lose their original power, whether or not they gain a new one. The only powers the spiked can have right now are Coinshot, lurcher, or seeker.

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Yeah I was actually worried this could be an elaborate ruse by the inquisitor. Have her tell peng she was snapped, attack her to prove that she has pewter, and suddenly she's an unquestioned spy within the "accepted" group. Added bonus is that anyone claiming to be the snapped afterwards would look suspicious.

It just seemed extraordinarily unlikely and lucky that both Shiv and Cassie claimed to be snapped at the same time AND the inquisitor chose to attack Cassie. Not sure what the logistics are though in if the inquisitor can attempt to spike one his/her own like that.

 

Edit: ninja'd by Hero and question answered so just ignore me.

Edited February 10, 2014 by aWESomeness summoned

[Mailliw73]

Oh, okay. I just checked the rules, you're right, Hero. I was thinking of the Unsnapped and remembering the 25% chance of getting a different power. I thought that was the spiked but that's not the case. I didn't really suspect Cessie anyways.

Edit: I'm going to give Shiv a chance to defend himself but if he can't sufficiently then I will vote along with Peng.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Mailliw73

[PorridgeBrick]

Peng's evidence seems pretty convincing to me. Kill Shiv. In the future, though, I'm curious to see how many people have both voted to kill Shimble and claimed to be normal Villagers, either openly or to Peng. While neither have a 100% chance of including the Inquisitor, I think both still help a little to narrow down suspects.

[Alvron]

Something to consider. Cassie claimed she snapped, if true then there is a 75% chance that another thug was spiked. If Peng would be kind enough to tell us the name of anyone who claimed to be a thug during the first few days, we should have a good chance of taking out one of the spike converts.

Given that Peng has a solid lead I am willing to vote along side him. Shiv.

Edited February 11, 2014 by Alvron

[Aspren]

Wilson, I've said that I've told Peng my role. Thank you. 

 

I agree that the Inquisitor is most likely who has claimed to be a regular villager, although they also could've claimed to be a smoker or have said that they've snapped since then, as others have said. Which is why I'm voting for Shiv. 

[dyring]

Shiv

 

well, solid lead indeed. Cessie can be nothing but a villager thug(atleast until a new person is spiked)

[princess]

Okay, that, that freaks me out a bit.  I got the message a while back that I was snapped, but since work decided to be crazy I didn't really read it past to make sure I hadn't broken a rule.  When I finally did get a chance to read it, I took a quick second to send a message to Peng. Shortly there after I am the target of an attack.  Before, the whole reading PMs seemed a bit too crazy for me, but now, I'm not so sure.  I mean, that's just a little bit too large a coincidence.  

[dyring]

"I think this makes certain that the inquisitor cannot infact read all communication.

 

If he had, he surely would not have attacked Cessie. As long as cessie wasent confirmed, it was uncertain who of the two we would attack. After cessie was confirmed, it was certain we would hit shiv.

 

Not to mention, if he read pm´s he knew an attack wouldent actually kill Cessie."

[Shivertongue]

Woah, woah, woah... I leave the internet for a day and I come back to find people wanting to kill me? And Peng, I would have liked, you know, to be asked before being outed...

 

I have to get some sleep, and I have a job interview tomorrow and won't be home until sometime around 4 (CST), so I don't know if I'll have time to properly defend myself. So for the moment, I'm going to say killing me would be a VERY BAD idea, and that I'm putting in for an extension right now.

[Shivertongue]

Okay, since I can't sleep, let's see how much I can get out before the pills kick in.

 

To cover this first - I kept from telling Peng that I had snapped because I wasn't yet certain he could be trusted. Most everyone else went along with his declaration of being the Mistborn early, but I thought there was too much potential for it to be a scam. There are two ways to alleviate suspicion from yourself; one such is to come out early as the hero, the one that everyone can trust, and get everyone onto your side. Since I was just regular crew at the time, I didn't have anything to hide, and nothing much to worry about other than being killed in the night or being spiked. When I snapped, and suddenly could have an impact on the events of the game other than with a vote, I decided the safest thing was to hold my tongue until I was sure Peng could be trusted. After some careful analysis, I decided he could be, and told him my role.

 

There is another way to alleviate suspicion from yourself, and I would have thought there would be someone here would be well-versed in tropes to recognize this. Make yourself a victim. It's shown up countless times in movies and books, where the villain themselves sets up their own attack, barely manages to survive, and then continues their dastardly plot while no one even considers them. This happens so often, there's an entire page on TV Tropes about it. This takes all suspicion off of them, and leaves them free to operate, at least for a little while, with no one the wiser. This has been playing in my mind ever since I read the description about a Thug's abilities in this game; it'd be ridiculously simple to fake an attack and claim to have been a Thug.

 

Taking the above, let's reconsider the power given up by the Inquisitor this turn. Uber-Copper, which makes them seem as though they were just a normal villager/crew. Consider as well that, as of this point, several people have been Seeked; I don't know who has come up clean, but in the light of such a revelation, is there not the chance that someone deemed clean may, in fact, not be?

 

Am I claiming that Cessie is faking this in order to remove suspicion from herself? Not entirely. What I am saying is that jumping to me on what is really some flimsy evidence, without even asking for more or trying to get discussion going (and considering how many people we've killed through sheer bandwagon, I'd think we'd be open to the idea of debate and making dead certain) is the wrong way to go about it. I'm beginning to regret having told Peng that I'd Snapped, seeing how he leapt right into "Let there be blood!"

 

Also, I'm still rather peeved from being outed. Not cool, especially since I'm completely innocent. Not even a message asking me to defend myself on this first...

 

But I digress; what I propose is this - we kill no one. Instead, if we have anyone capable of Seeking, that they Seek either Cessie or myself. One of us will show up as a Misting, especially since the Inquisitor does not have Uber-Copper anymore. If I am Seeked, and I show up as a bad guy, then by all means kill me. If Cessie is Seeked, and it does not reveal her as a Thug, then clearly someone is lying. Either way, someone is found innocent, and someone is found guilty.

[dyring]

ooc - Cant do this argument ic:p

Sorry shiv. To big a lead towards you.

 

Only one person can have snapped (please correct me someone if I understood the rules wrong), and since Cessie was proved to be a thug, and she cannot be the inq(he was active doing other things at the same time), I can frankly not see a way within the rules that she is not that one snapped person, and that you did infact, not snapped.

sure, theoretically, Cesie could lie and have been a thug from the start, but given that she´d still be proven not a spiked or the inq, that can be disregarded.

 

There is one very small way out wich might make Shiv innocent. If one of Cessie and Shiv snapped due to the 10% standard chance, and the GM does not mention that. But given that he writes out that someone snapped at one time, I really cant see that he would not write it out a second time just cause it was due to a different cause.

 

That is the only way. Cessie cannot be the inquisitor(since he was active doing other things). And Cessie cannot be a converted(since they cannot be a thug)

So she is the real deal. that makes that only the very small oportunity I wrote above is the only way you are not lying about having snapped.

 

So, sorry to say it unless the GM pops in saying he just forgot to add it, your where I place my vote.

Edited February 10, 2014 by dyring

[Shivertongue]

<snip>

 

That is the only way. Cessie cannot be the inquisitor(since he was active doing other things). And Cessie cannot be a converted(since they cannot be a thug)

So she is the real deal. that makes that only the very small oportunity I wrote above is the only way you are not lying about having snapped.

 

</snip>

 

That is exactly how the con works. They couldn't have done it, because someone else had to have done it. An accomplice, perhaps. And clearly, the Inquisitor doesn't have people working for them.

 

Oh, wait...

[dyring]

Noone but the inquisitor can spike others(. The rest can kill but not spike. That must be the inquisitor as I read the rules. Feel free to try to read it in other ways, but I cant see it. 

 

Besides. 1 person to attack cessie, 1 person to spike, and one person who got spiked there. Thats all the 3 bad guys we got as of yet.

 

There are just the inq and 2 converts now.

[Aspren]

Well, I never thought I'd see the day that someone uses TV tropes to try to convince someone not to kill them. 

 

Shiv, while I think that you've argued well for your side, I don't fully agree. I don't think that at this point we can risk not killing someone. I don't think that we can risk waiting till the next day to prove whether you're wrong or right. What I will do is retract my previous vote and instead vote for no-one until I am convinced one way or the other. I will most likely make up my mind before the end of the day.

 

You couldn't expect people to ask you to defend yourself, because if  you are the Inquisitor that gives you a better chance to talk yourself out of the situation. Better to let the accused bring out their own defense. That said, I don't approve of the mob mentality either.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Aspren

[Shivertongue]

Then, if I do die, consider this - if I'm killed, and it's revealed I was the Inquisitor or a Spiked, then Cessie is telling the truth. But if I'm killed, and I'm not Spiked nor am I an Inquisitor, then Cessie is lying, either for herself or on behalf of someone else...

 

Or, you could Seek one of us and know for certain without any bloodshed.

 

Edit: dyring, you are assuming those events all happened at the same time. I think Meta is either giving us a non-linear plot, or being deliberately vague about the timeframe in which events are happening during the course of a night.

 

And, before anyone suggests that Cessie has to have been a Thug because Meta said so - if the Inquisitor is playing a Wounded Gazelle Gambit, then the moderator of the game isn't going to spill the secret.

 

Edit 2: Aspren, what I meant was almost everyone just leapt right on board with "Kill Shiv!" I think one or two people said something about it, butI had thought that with every single choice made so far having been wrong, people would be more willing or more capable of taking analytical duties upon themselves. No insult meant, but as I said before, or, at least alluded to, the bandwagon approach has netted us a grand total of ZERO successes. We're clearly not doing something right.

 

I don't expect people to just jump in and defend me, but there should be more discussion. 

[dyring]

"Oh, should I be wrong and you end up innocent, Ill argue strongly that cessie should die. Can promise that. But I do not believe that will happend."

[Herowannabe]

Or, you could Seek one of us and know for certain without any bloodshed.

 

This is, regrettably, untrue, I think. For, Master Shiv, while we are taking the extra time to seek you or Lady Cessie, there will indeed be bloodshed. The inquisitor and his followers will not sit idly by while we go about confirming our suspicions, and we can be assured that whosoever they target will be someone that we do not wish to die.

 

 

 

And, before anyone suggests that Cessie has to have been a Thug because Meta said so - if the Inquisitor is playing a Wounded Gazelle Gambit, then the moderator of the game isn't going to spill the secret.

 

Rest assured, Master Shiv, that this possibility has not escaped the notice of anyone here. We still do not know all of the powers that are possessed by the inquisitor. However, given what we do know, it is most likely that you are indeed the guilty party.

 

 

 

No insult meant, but as I said before, or, at least alluded to, the bandwagon approach has netted us a grand total of ZERO successes. We're clearly not doing something right.

 

Let me be the one to remind you that the one time that we as a group did not follow the bandwagon possibility, indeed, the time when I, and several others, decided to go against the wishes of Lord Peng and his followers, was a colossal failure, as I myself well know. It is a fallacy to assume that because one strategy has not worked before that it will not work the next time, I think.

[Shivertongue]

Shiv blinked. Had he two eyes, he was sure it might have had more of an effect. Come to think of it, when you were missing an eye, was it still blinking, or was it endless winking? Was there any difference between a blink and a wink? Was blinking just winking with both eyes? He lost himself in thought for several moments, considering the implications of this possibility.

 

Blinking (winking?) again, he shook his head. What was going on again? Oh, right.

 

People wanted to kill him. That was something that should take precedence. Honestly, though, after the fifth time someone tried to stick a knife in your gut, one kind of grew numb to the threat of potentially imminent death. "Wasing burning to the what?" he said, his eye widening. "Top of the what as how of crooked? Notting the proving to have, hasing to look of the tatters on the scope, whatting as the say on the shine top!"

 

"What the hell?"

 

"Are your heads on straight? There is no proof, other than the barest shreds of half-viewed possibility, and even an Obligator would admit to that!"

 

He shook his head, frowning and slipping off the table he'd been sitting on. He looked around the room again. "Notting just the finding of cuts and coins, notting the have of need to the doing." He lifted his head, looking again at the message that was on the wall. "Hasing specific to the what as to the back and back. Hasing the was of doing in the far, the whatting of watch as without wonder. Whatting the do of seeing the notting, but whatting the do of seeing the seeing? Hasing the has of making the not on the rest, giving the sliceback, wasing the has on the had?"

 

"I'm not just a cutpurse or a pickpocket, or just a guy brought in to fill out the crew."

 

"I have a specific job I fell into back home. An important niche in Eastern crews, someone to keep an eye on everyone else. Everyone keeps an eye on the target or the mark, but who keeps an eye on the rest of the crew? Making sure that no one is double-dealing, planning to turn, or skimming off the top?"

 

"Wasing the why of the bring," he said, gesturing toward himself. He lifted his chin, looking again at the message left by the nasty. "Wasing the what of the bringing. Hasing the do of the needing as the right, more one the needing with the many. Hasing half the brighting, but hasing more see to the all." He paused for a moment, frowning before adding, "Notting the have so nasty of the dealing..."

 

"That's why I'm here."

 

"That's why I was brought in. It's a job that needs to be done, especially when crews get as large as this. I have only one eye, but I see more than you."

 

"Not that I've had to deal with anything quite this bad before..."

 

His hand shot out, and he pointed a finger at Cessie. "Wasing not the has of the right too," he said bluntly. "Wasing us to rows and rows the previous, wasing the know of sly on the what. Sliding the slides of the sludge to the south."

 

Spinning, the finger pointed at Hero. "Notting the right have on the again. Hasing of the nearing, so the has of the right evens."

 

"I don't believe your story for a second."

 

"If you'd lived like we did on the streets, you would know not to try that con on another con. Very sloppy."

 

"I don't trust you either. You're too close to her, so it's only a fair assumption."

 

Whipping his finger to the right... then slightly further to the right, off Dyring and onto Wilson (damned depth perception!) he continued. "Wasing to look on the enter. Having the grin on the edge of the new nasty not near for the nice. Hasing the not of the has on the last."

 

"I saw you when you came in. You were enjoying the message a little too much, considering how dark things have become."

 

His finger pointed at Dyring again, this time on purpose. "And of the was..." he said, narrowing his eye. "Wasing to giving right rot on the now? Hasing the have of scratch, wasing as the has of the ashing."

 

"And you..."

 

"Could you get me a drink please? My throat is sore, probably from all this talking."

 

 

I didn't really expect this to go on as long as it did... This was something I'd had in mind for Shiv as a character from the beginning. I liked the idea of crews sort of having "internal affairs officers" to police themselves and catch anyone who was screwing things up from the inside.

[Kurkistan]

Yeah, sorry Shiv, but I'm pretty sure you're Spiked just from your behavior at this point. In no world is not killing either of you the best choice. Either you or Cessie should die tonight, since it's guaranteed one of you is Spiked. Sitting and waiting is counterproductive.

 

----

 

Even his suspicious behavior aside, let's look at what would have to have happened for Shiv to be innocent:

 

The only way that he is not Spiked is the following scenario:

 

1) Cessie is Spiked

2) Cessie was an Unsnapped who Snapped upon being Spiked (1/4 of that happening upon Spikeage)

-And she happens to be a Thug. This is necessary for a plan such as he proposes, but not really a factor in terms of probability

3) Team Evil can attack their own, and did

4) They actually did all this convoluted nonsense for the express purpose of offing exactly one villager (Shiv), at which point, if he's innocent, Cessie would immediately die the next round.

 

So this versus the simple solution of Shiv being Spiked? I'd kill Shiv first. If he's innocent, then Cessie dies next round and it all ends with a 1:1 trade, which is still definitely in our favor. Either Shiv or Cessie should die tonight either way, and he's the more likely suspect.

[dyring]

Kurk:

 

your scenario does not work;)

 

the inquisitor was spiking one individual. Another was attacking Cessie. Thats all. There arent any more bad guys. Not unless Cessie attacked herself,

 

Only option is that GM forgot to write out we had a second snapped individual

[Kurkistan]

EDIT: Misread your post.

 

It is a vague possibility that Cessie attacked herself and that's just how Meta narrated it. Very vague. Or that the Inquisitor can both convert and kill in the night and for some reason hasn't done so yet.

 

I agree: Highly unlikely. You're right that it's even more unlikely considering how Meta narrated it and just common-sense on how the rules likely work. I just want to be sure to acknowledge the possibility.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Kurkistan

[Gamma Fiend]

Hm. Shiv has made a strong defense for himself. Maybe too strong of a defense?
Remember, we can not just take someone's word for it (except for Peng's).

I would still like to hear the time-line of the PM's Peng has received from Shiv and Cessie, when exactly and after what day parts was he PM'd with their Roles?

Shiv's defense of him holding out his info against Peng is just too... convenient.
We all agreed as the group the best thing to do was send our info in to Peng. Holding back that info until the last possible moment only casts more suspicion on to you.

I don't want to kill another innocent, but my vote still stands for Shiv.
And if he turns out innocent, you're next Cessie.

[Shivertongue]

Yeah, sorry Shiv, but I'm pretty sure you're Spiked just from your behavior at this point. In no world is not killing either of you the best choice. Either you or Cessie should die tonight, since it's guaranteed one of you is Spiked. Sitting and waiting is counterproductive.

 

----

 

Even his suspicious behavior aside, let's look at what would have to have happened for Shiv to be innocent:

 

The only way that he is not Spiked is the following scenario:

 

1) Cessie is Spiked

2) Cessie was an Unsnapped who Snapped upon being Spiked (1/4 of that happening upon Spikeage)

-And she happens to be a Thug. This is necessary for a plan such as he proposes, but not really a factor in terms of probability

3) Team Evil can attack their own, and did

4) They actually did all this convoluted nonsense for the express purpose of offing exactly one villager (Shiv), at which point, if he's innocent, Cessie would immediately die the next round.

 

So this versus the simple solution of Shiv being Spiked? I'd kill Shiv first. If he's innocent, then Cessie dies next round and it all ends with a 1:1 trade, which is still definitely in our favor. Either Shiv or Cessie should die tonight either way, and he's the more likely suspect.

 

You are neglecting the purpose of the Wounded Gazelle Gambit; it's not to implicate one person, but to remove the implication on oneself. It's not Cessie happening to be a Thug, but claiming to be one. It's the only way for someone to survive an attack save Lurcher involvement. My guess would be that she, or the Inquisitor if she turns out to be a mere Spiked, used the fact that no one had stepped forward to their advantage. What they did not count on, perhaps, was that I decided to tell Peng I was the one who had Snapped, thus creating a conflict in their plan.

 

Gamma: With how gung-ho people in this game get when there comes to a bandwagon, especially since more than half the players follow Peng's lead without much thought, and with my being late to my own defense (there were already seven votes against me by the time I saw it) I have to make as strong a case as I possibly can.

 

When the agreement to share info with Peng was made, I didn't voice any input, because at the time, I was Regular Crew. When I Snapped, I wasn't fully trusting of Peng yet, and held back. Primarily because I felt we were putting too much power into the hands of one person, going only on their word that they were what they said they were. I still think that; I point out again how so many people fall right behind Peng whenever he makes a decision, regardless of sufficient evidence presented or not.

 

And I just checked the rules; nowhere does it say that the Inquisitor cannot both convert and kill (or attempt to kill) in the same night.