Long Game 2: The Devil's Den

[Metacognition]

I, by official decree of the almighty Shard of Death Notes, hereby grant you all another 12 hours to this day. 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Metacognition

[Kurkistan]

You are neglecting the purpose of the Wounded Gazelle Gambit; it's not to implicate one person, but to remove the implication on oneself. It's not Cessie happening to be a Thug, but claiming to be one. It's the only way for someone to survive an attack save Lurcher involvement. My guess would be that she, or the Inquisitor if she turns out to be a mere Spiked, used the fact that no one had stepped forward to their advantage. What they did not count on, perhaps, was that I decided to tell Peng I was the one who had Snapped, thus creating a conflict in their plan.

 

I don't really buy Team Evil actually trying the Gambit you propose. At best it buys Cessie 1 day's freedom from suspicion (remember: anyone can be Spiked at any time), and it always costs them 1 of Cessie's lives and the foregone chance to kill a villager. Not worth it.

 

Let's say you're right: This is all a big gambit by Team Evil that's backfired now that Shiv has finally PM'd Peng. Cessie is either a de-fanged Spiked or the Inquisitor him- (or her- actually) self. Then you should be fully on board with us getting to the bottom of this as quickly as possible. The route to doing so just so happens to go through your dead body. A noble sacrifice, if ever there was one.

 

If you're innocent, then Cessie dies tomorrow, bar-none. But in the meantime we can use our Seeking (if we have any left) to focus on other suspects. We'll have payed 1 innocent life to "seek" Cessie during the day, then, essentially.

 

---

 

If we didn't have Peng's word on the PM's, and for some reason just had a choice between 2 people, one of whom we knew was Spiked for sure, then it would still be in our interest to kill one of them. As it is, though, we have significant reason to kill Shiv over Cessie, so we go from a coinflip to a fairly well-based choice.

[Gamma Fiend]

Question to Peng:
Who PM'd you first, claiming to be a Snapped? When did that happen?

And then when did you get the second "snapped" PM?

[Peng the Just]

Feb 07 2014 06:54 PM for cessie and

Feb 08 2014 07:49 PM for Shiv

[Aspren]

I have some questions for Shiv:

 

When (on what day/night) did you snap?

What do you believe was the cause of your snapping?

 

Obviously you may choose not to reply, and that in a way is still an reply, though considering current circumstances you don't have much to lose.

[Mailliw73]

So, some ideas I've had for what the Inquisitor's other powers would be are:

-Feruchemical Storing of Wakefulness: Could choose not to attack one night to be able to attack twice in one night (or perform two actions)

-Ubersoothing or rioting: can soothe or riot two votes or without changing it to their own.

[Shivertongue]

Aspren: Page 33 of the Devil's Den collected topic. Day 3 (Fishing for Clues). I was the one out in the mists. I got my PM about Snapping at the same time Meta posted the topic.

[PorridgeBrick]

I don't think there's much point in debating over this. No matter what, we're winning from this here: if Shiv is innocent, then Cessie is most likely the Inq and possibly a Spiked. We have numbers on our side. Even if we give up one, or two Villagers for one Spiked, we'll still win.

[Shivertongue]

Shiv snorted, rolling his eye. "Wasing the have of all of the joy. Whatting is on more ending for the having? Always the having of knowing of bright on dark for the always..." Sticking his tongue out at Ridge, he pulls off his patch and glares at Peng, the gaping hole of his missing eye an empty void. "Wasing of blood the wishing of having the listen. Wasing the have the foolish of faithing to." 

 

He snorted again, then pounded back his whiskey, placing it on the bar and gesturing for another. "As having to wish of the keeping on the haps? As of the stronging of seeming make for the notting..."

 

"I'm so thrilled for you all. What's a few more deaths? So happy to know that I won't be alive to be proven right..."

 

"I should have stuck with mom's advice. This is what happens when you let yourself trust someone."

 

"Perhaps I should have kept all of this to myself? Because having a strong defense is somehow much more suspicious..."

 

Yeah, Shiv (the character) is a little pissed at all of you right now. Shiv the player is much less so, although he is beginning to understand why some people get annoyed, to say the least, with games like this. I know for a fact that I am innocent, and if I could invite you all into the PM I got telling me I Snapped, I would. 

 

Basically, you're all playing into the Inquisitor's plan. My PM to Peng threw the unexpected wrench into things, but they are still gonna get away with a few more deaths because you won't call the bluff. 

[Peng the Just]

I am actually going to make a short argument for shiv here. Cessies claim is that she snapped as a thug and then was targeted. Her thug ability has already been used up. We are out less if we kill her and she is innocent, than if we kill shiv and he is innocent. I am not changing my vote right now though.

[bartbug]

Actually Ping, you're right;

Shiv, what are you? What would we be losing if we killed you?

(And also P.S.: If you are innocent, or if you are Spiked, you're trying way too hard. Like I did. In retrospect, it was easy to see who the baddies where based on who went quietly and who fought tooth and nail. If you look like me, then that's a bad thing. (As far as being me can be bad.  ). I clung to life like nothing else, while Grayv and pretty much everyone else posted what? Two times?)

 

EDIT: Also, not trying to be rude or patronizey at all. Just an obesrvation.

Edited February 11, 2014 by bartbug

[Gamma Fiend]

Good point Peng.

Can you figure out what day part they PM'd you, figure out if it was after a conversion?

I would really hate to find out we just randomly had two people snap, but only get notified of the one as a result of a conversion.

Meta is probably laughing his chull off right now.

Edit: Response to Shiv:

Eh, I'm not buying that Multiple Snappings happened off of that one event. I was just wondering if another Snapping happened at another time randomly that Meta didn't warn us about, but if both of you are claiming the Snapping from the one Conversion in the write-up, one of you is definitely lying.

Edit 2: Bleh. Yeah. After reading your post more carefully I see that you are saying basically the same thing as me.
I had way too long of a MtG day today, lol. My brain is frazzled.


 

Edited February 11, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Shivertongue]

Good point Peng.

Can you figure out what day part they PM'd you, figure out if it was after a conversion?

I would really hate to find out we just randomly had two people snap, but only get notified of the one as a result of a conversion.

Meta is probably laughing his chull off right now.

 

From the post in which the Snapping happened (emphasis mine):

 

 

 

No one died, but a Conversion did occur. I won’t tell you whether the converted target received the role or not, nor will I tell you what the Unsnapped got either.

 

The presence of "either" indicates two people; I Snapped, and someone else got converted.

 

@bartbug: I was actually holding off on saying, as I Snapped into... ah, heck with it, doesn't matter so much now. I'm a Lurcher. I didn't say it earlier because, if I remember correctly, Weiry was a Lurcher, and I thought saying that I was one now could be detrimental to my case. But yeah, I got iron.

[bartbug]

Oh, well that's great.

So, heres what I vote on us doing: Ping, if there are any more coinshots, tell one of them, just one, to shoot me dead. Then, Shiv can lurch me. If I die, then I die, and we know that Shiv is a fraud. If I get double teamed, then I think we still learn that Shiv was telling the truth (Meta can confirm that). 

 

Meanwhile, we can kill neither Shiv nor Cassie until tomorrow, instead dedicating it to Herwynbe or whomever you feel like deserves it. 

 

What do you guys think?

 

EDIT: Crap, just realized that if baldface gave you lurchiness, then you would still save me. Sorry, Shiv. There is no surefire way to check you out.

Edited February 11, 2014 by bartbug

[Peng the Just]

Edit: retracted due to inadverdent rules breaking

Edited February 11, 2014 by jasonpenguin

[Awesomeness Summoned]

I actually agree with Peng's comment at this point that Cessie is the safest choice to remove. I'm very aware how ironic that is since I was nominated earlier for being a safe choice but that isn't the only reason I'm actually tempted to vote for her.

So far the inquisitor has been either extremely knowledgeable in his/her targets or extraordinarily lucky. It has seemed just too much of a coincidence that Cessie came forward as a snapped pewter arm right before being attacked by the inquisitor. I see three scenarios for this.

1. It was just random luck on the inquisitors part to target Cessie. There seems to be too much of that going around lately, though, and I don't buy it.

2. The inquisitor does have access to Pm's and knew about Cessie telling peng her role. If this were the case, why would he/she target her? It's just a waste of one night's attack to go after someone you know is a pewter. There are plenty of other targets at this point to go after at this point.

3. Cessie is spiked and the inquisitor was trying to use her pewter life to get her into the "trusted" crowd.

I haven't made up my decision just yet but there are far too many questions in my mind to risk eliminating yet another one of our possible strong assets if shiv is actually just is the snapped. We can always take him out if I'm wrong about Cessie. Then you can take me out for aiding and abetting unintentionally.

[Mailliw73]

I'm inclined to go with Cessie. Shiv has given us some info while Cessie has given us practically none.

Also, would one of the list makers make a vote count?

[little wilson]

Also, would one of the list makers make a vote count?

I have one. I've been updating the main list I made here.

[Mailliw73]

Thanks, but it isn't updated. :/

[little wilson]

Thanks, but it isn't updated. :/

It is now. I went in to update your vote right after I posted that. But my internet decided to slow down temporarily.

[Mailliw73]

Oh thanks.

[Robot Aztec]

Shiv Shiv

[little wilson]

I am actually going to make a short argument for shiv here. Cessies claim is that she snapped as a thug and then was targeted. Her thug ability has already been used up. We are out less if we kill her and she is innocent, than if we kill shiv and he is innocent. I am not changing my vote right now though.

This isn't entirely correct, Peng. Even though Cessie is down to one life, she's still a Misting. And if we kill her, that'll give the Inquisitor a Thug Spike to go convert someone with tonight. Now, I don't know about you, but I really don't like the idea of a Spiked Thug.

On the flip side, I also don't like the idea of a Spiked Lurcher either.

At this point, I don't think it's about which one will hurt less for us. If we kill the wrong one, it's going to hurt a lot. So the goal isn't to kill the one that will hurt less. It's to kill the one we think is guilty.

Right now, I'm leaning towards Shiv, but he's made a really good case for himself that makes me hesitant to vote for him (even if he accused me of being too happy when I came into the room earlier). Because of this, I'm going to hold my vote back a little longer just to give Peng more time to decide what he wants to do. And then I'll probably go along with that decision (but I withhold the right to make that choice once I know what his decision is).

EDIT: I want to make it clear that I'm not discrediting Peng's orginal statement. If Shiv truly is a Lurcher, that's an important role for our side. Far more important than Cessie's down-one-life Thug, if she is innocent. My point is simply that this isn't as simple as which one is more important to the crew right now. It's also about which one can help the Spiked. Because either will (if we kill the wrong one--and that is the imperative phrase here. We have to be sure to kill the Spiked. Only then can we know that we're not actually helping them).

Edited February 11, 2014 by little wilson

[Metacognition]

I had a conversation with meta about this before making accusations. I asked if he used "they" for purposes of gender neutrality or because multiple people snapped

Metacognition, on 08 Feb 2014 - 10:56 PM, said:

I did use "they" to keep it gender neutral. I'm cruel, but my clues to there being more than one person who snapped would be clearer than that. If multiple people snapped, I wouldn't have used someone or person. And that's all the more clear I can be on the matter.

It appears only one person snapped in the mists.

 

I'm sorry, Jason, but I have to downvote you for this. You can't just copy/paste something I've said like that. I know that it wasn't your intention to break the rules of Fair Play, but you did.

 

No one else should downvote you for it, but if they do, I'll hide the post entirely. You don't deserve that for a single infraction, but I also wanted to make it known how much of rule break this was. 

I don't want this to distract from the rest of the game, so please, everyone, leave this as it is. I just wanted to alert everyone to the infraction for future games or else I would've contacted Jason in private. Not only am I allowing it this time, but I will confirm it for you. 

If more than one person snapped, I would make the write up of the snapped section much more ambiguous than I did. 

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

This is a test of the Emergency Rules System. This is only a test.

 

Please continue with your regularly scheduled killings.

 

Remember this is only a test.  

 

Edited February 11, 2014 by Metacognition

[Quiver]

Hmm.

 

Okay, my (quick) two cents. Shiv, you're fighting tooth and nail to stay in the game, which is natural. If I was in your position I'd be doing the same- I mean, I kind of already did by pre-empting accusations towards me- but Bartbg is right. He fought, hard, to convince us of his innocence last game, when he was guilty. As someone who fell for it, I'm a little apprehensive to let you get away with it again.

 

But...

 

But you're a Lurcher. And as bad as a spiked Thug would be, if you are innocent and die, I can't imagine Ironeyes not taking advantage of the situation to spike someone else. I found that out early in the last game; Lurching is the get out of jail free card. Even if all the Inquisitors minion did was Lurch Ironeyes every night, we'd still have made it tougher for us to find him.

 

Not, a thug? That's a problem, yes. But a spiked Thug can't also coin shot us every night (unless I'm mis-reading the rules). Someone correct me if I'm wrong, and I may edit this vote, but I'm going to vote against Cessie this time.

(And let me tell you, it breaks Quillion's heart to do it.)