Adolin's Fate?

[DSC01 he/him]

I don't understand why Jasnah's physical absence is more than one person's explanation for why no one would ever suspect that she had hired assassins and ordered them to kill Sadeas (again, with a spanreed). 

What is so unlikely about the following hypothetical scenario?

-"Oh no! Sadeas is dead! There's not really much evidence for who could have done it, but Lighteyes never murder each in brawls like dirty Darkeyes. It must be assassins!"

-"Gee, guys! Who could have hired those assassins? It's not like Dalinar to do that kind of thing at all, and he or someone close to him seems like the most likely culprit right now."

-Jasnah suddenly shows up, shocking everyone by not being dead.

-"Man, it's really weird that everyone thought Jasnah was dead for months, but now she's shown up alive. I bet she faked her own death as part of some kind of scheming. What do you think she was up to?"

-"Whoa! Remember how you said Dalinar or one of the people close to him would be the most likely one to want to kill Sadeas, except none of them seem the type to hire assassins? Well, Jasnah is close to Dalinar, and she is the type to hire assassins. Maybe that's what she was up to while she was pretending to be dead!"

Yes, there are some big ifs there. If there is physical evidence, then they'll follow that. If there is someone who might be suspected of trying to assassinate Sadeas, then they'll suspect them. If Adolin acts suspicious, then people will probably figure out what really happened. But again: There. Are. SPANREEDS. You do not have to be in a place to be involved in what is happening there. That is something that people in the books know, too.

[Oversleep]

1 hour ago, DSC01 said:

Well, Jasnah is close to Dalinar, and she is the type to hire assassins.

I just want to remind everyone that the fact that we - the readers - know something it does not necessarily mean characters know. It's not like Jasnah was going around and telling everyone "Hey, I hired an assassin! Fear me! Woohooo!".

Why would anyone know that Jasnah hired an assassin few years ago or was involved in secret war with a secret organisation? Save for Shallan and those involved, of course.

Edited August 11, 2016 by Oversleep

[CaptainRyan he/him]

4 minutes ago, Oversleep said:

Why would anyone know that Jasnah hired an assassin few years ago or was involved in secret war with a secret organisation?

Because Ialai has a big network of spies and figured it out? Jasnah gave written instructions to the Weeper and also had a second set of written instructions that she did not give the Weeper. It is a possibility, no?

[Argel he/him]

30 minutes ago, CaptainRyan said:

Because Ialai has a big network of spies and figured it out? Jasnah gave written instructions to the Weeper and also had a second set of written instructions that she did not give the Weeper. It is a possibility, no?

The Weeper was six years ago. The only info we have post that is with the Ghostbloods conflict. 

Possible, but on the other hand, the secret societies seem to be be a well kept secret. They would have a hard time operating if not, and quite frankly, if Ialai tipped her hand that she knew about the activities of one of them she would probably be assassinated. The Ghostbloods in particular come to mind on that front, unless she's part of them or being used by them. No hints as to either, and we've discussed before that it doesn't seem like a good fit.

 

Something I think some of you are forgetting is how long Jasnah has been missing/presumed dead. Think about when the ship sunk and how long it took Shallan to finally make it to the Shattered Plains, and then how much time has passed since then. With no word from Jasnah whatsoever. They should have even had time to corroborate that the ship sank, etc. Navi took a long time to accept Jasnah's fate, etc. Plus combine that with the KRs returning and the Everstorm, and Jasnah will have a believable story. More so if Hoid/Wit is there to back her up. And as Overlseep mentions, who would know about her using assassins? Sorry, but you are overreaching. 

[CaptainRyan he/him]

1 minute ago, Argel said:

Something I think some of you are forgetting is how long Jasnah has been missing/presumed dead.

About 3-4 months, I think. Dalinar's count down began at 60ish days, iirc. Add in some travel time for Shallan in the beginning and a few days for the post-Everstorm hang out at Urithiru and we are not talking about that much time. And remember, all of this speculation presupposes that Jasnah shows up in Uruthiru or that someone (maybe Ialai) gets solid confirmation of Jasnah being alive. 

3 minutes ago, Argel said:

Plus combine that with the KRs returning and the Everstorm, and Jasnah will have a believable story. More so if Hoid/Wit is there to back her up.

Oh come on, the King's Wit is going to vouch that Jasnah teleported to another dimension, wrangled information out of the rulers of a group of spren, and then somehow teleported herself back to nowhere Alethkar? If that does not sound like exactly the sort of nonsense Wit would normally say then... well, I don't even know what to add haha.

4 minutes ago, Argel said:

who would know about her using assassins?

We already went over this. The assumption is that there is a paper trail or, perhaps, even that someone bought out the Weeper's contract.

5 minutes ago, Argel said:

Sorry, but you are overreaching.

I'm more just playing Odium's Advocate here but I think this idea is getting dismissed too quickly. I do not, personally, believe this is the direction Sanderson will go but I think the pieces for such a direction are there if he did so choose.

[Argel he/him]

16 hours ago, CaptainRyan said:

Oh come on, the King's Wit

The point there is that he's more credible as a neutral witness. And who's to say what is believable given all of the recent events? Plus, Shallan could vouch for Shadesmar. Also don't forget that Pattern has been revealed at this point. 

16 hours ago, CaptainRyan said:

About 3-4 months

Now that I think about it, we have Jasnah's outdated notes on the highprinces, which suggests she has not been keeping in touch, in which case there's even less reason to suspect her, because she has clearly not been heavily involved in Alethi politics for some time. Has she even been to the Shattered Plains? It doesn't sound like she has, or if so, not in years. One of the strongest reasons she would not be a suspect.

Edit: I think I fianlly stumbled upon why the Jasnah idea doesn't work for me -- she has to be a player to be a candidate, and she hasn't been a player in Alethi politics for quite some time now. She's been doing the scholarly research thing pretty much since shorty after her father was assassinated. The fact she thinks Sebarial is worthless is another hint of that -- he's clearly very sharp when it comes to economics and if she was seriously involved in Alethi politics she would have picked up on that. Her notes to Shallan are not just outdated -- they are from someone who is a peripheral player.

16 hours ago, CaptainRyan said:

The assumption is that there is a paper trail

The best assassins won't leave a paper trail. 

Edited August 12, 2016 by Argel

[CaptainRyan he/him]

1 hour ago, Argel said:

The point there is that he's more credible as a neutral witness.

From my perspective and understanding of the books, he is not a credible witness. He is seen as a buffoon and an annoyance. In my opinion, outside of the main characters, there is not a single member of the Alethi nobility who would take Wit seriously. He has been crass, vulgar, abusive, manipulative, etc. and is known to play elaborate pranks.

1 hour ago, Argel said:

And who's to say what is believable given all of the recent events?

The fact that Sadeas was confident that he could convince a sizable portion of the Alethi nobility to believe that Dalinar was in cahoots with the Parshendi is ample evidence, to me, that someone could convince a sizable portion of the Alethi nobility that Jasnah is the hand behind the assassination.

1 hour ago, Argel said:

Plus, Shallan could vouch for Shadesmar. Also don't forget that Pattern has been revealed at this point.

Short of literally teleporting people to Shadesmar and showing them, I do not think Shallan's word alone would be enough to remove the cloud of suspicion if Ialai (or whomever) has a modicum of evidence. Again, we are pointing to the fact that Jasnah wrote down her instructions to the Weeper. Now, you did point out that a good assassin would not be so foolish as to keep a paper trail but the fact that Jasnah herself wrote it out, and even kept the more damning paper to herself, shows the possibility that there could be a paper trail. Add on to that a few bribes to the accountants and you might suddenly have evidence of large sums of spheres being paid to the Queen's maid... suspicious, no?

1 hour ago, Argel said:

I think I fianlly stumbled upon why the Jasnah idea doesn't work for me -- she has to be a player to be a candidate, and she hasn't been a player in Alethi politics for quite some time now.

While we, as the readers, understand that I'm not so sure the characters agree. She is the previous King's daughter, the current King's sister, an avowed heretic, an outspoken feminist in a male-dominated society. She cannot help but be viewed by the Alethi nobility as a "player in the game". If you have read the Wheel of Time series then you know that "not playing the game" is just another way of playing the Great Game. 

 

Again, my arguments are not made in the spirit of "this will happen" but, rather, made in the spirit of "I think the person who originally suggested this brought up an interesting idea and it is a possibility". Do I expect to read Oathbringer and see Jasnah implicated in Sadeas' death? Absolutely not. I find it far more plausible that Adolin will be implicated quickly. I find it far more plausible that someone else might be implicated and Adolin will admit he did it. I think there are many scenarios that are more plausible but I think this idea is interesting and, if Sanderson, for whatever reason, went this route I believe that the threads to weave this storyline exist and are plausible.

Edited August 12, 2016 by CaptainRyan

[DSC01 he/him]

Keep in mind, this is my idea, but I'm not exactly married to it. I am just defending it as a possibility, knowing that it depends on a lot of variables that we currently know very little about. For example, did Adolin clean up the crime scene adequately? If he didn't, then people will be following his trail, not chasing imaginary assassins. But that's an unknown. So this bit of speculation from me is saying, "Let's assume that Adolin cleaned up the crime scene well enough that people are thinking professional killers were involved."

The idea also depends upon what people know/believe about Jasnah. Again, for this idea, I'm saying, "Let's assume that Ialai knows or suspects that Jasnah was once involved in underhanded political maneuvering and dealings with assassins." It seems that Jasnah largely abandoned this political maneuvering for research when Gavilar died, but I am saying, "Let's assume that Ialai believes that Jasnah's dedication to scholarship was a cover for more manipulation."

When Jasnah turns out to be alive, will Ialai accept her story? I say no. A treacherous person sees treachery everywhere. My assumption is that, if she knows that Jasnah once was once involved in clandestine activities, then she believes that she still is (though we readers know otherwise). Therefore, all that you mention--her ship being confirmed sunk, her notes not listing any current information (which they know because...? Shallan said so? Do they know that? If so, do they believe it?), her apparent lack of interest in the Shattered Plains--none of that will be taken at face value. 

My impression is that Ialai would say, "If I were in that situation, I would sink the ship and make sure everyone on it was dead except a patsy to tell everyone that I was dead. I would make it look like I didn't know anything about the political situation on the Shattered Plains, while secretly getting frequent reports from spies planted throughout the camps. I would plant agents ready to assassinate key figures if certain things went the wrong way. And then, once the situation was more to my liking, I would show up--not dead after all--with some story that makes me look like a big hero."

Why would Ialai believe stories about Shadesmar and talking to intelligent spren? Because there are Radiants around now? Does she believe anything Shallan or Kaladin claim? Her husband watched the Everstorm collide with a Highstorm that blew up out of nowhere during the Weeping, and that changed nothing about his plans. I think that Ialai will think it's all nonsense. And if it's nonsense, then it's a cover for something else. What could that be? Why not Sadeas's assassination?

[Argel he/him]

1 hour ago, CaptainRyan said:

From my perspective and understanding of the books, he is not a credible witness.

No, he's viewed as sharper than previous wits, at least by those paying attention. The fact that he is disliked, etc. are all what imo give him just enough credibility. It doesn't have to be enough for everyone -- just to the people that matter the most.

 

1 hour ago, CaptainRyan said:

The fact that Sadeas was confident that he could convince a sizable portion of the Alethi nobility

I actually think he was overreaching at this point. He tells Adolin there can only be him or Dalinar, and suddenly Salinar is on the rise. Sadeas can try and discredit him, but all of his attempts to do so in the past have turned out to be failures. Even the visions have born out to be true. I'm sure he could still cause a lot of trouble, but more in the short term, and  that really matters given the situation they are in. But Sadeas was on the losing end of the power struggle, so it's hard to guage how much trouble he could cause vs. how much he through he could cause, vs. how desperate he was.

2 hours ago, CaptainRyan said:

Short of literally teleporting people to Shadesmar and showing them, I do not think Shallan's word alone would be enough to remove the cloud of suspicion 

And being telported by a mythical oatgate from the shattered plains to U is also ridiculously unbelievable. Think about the surviving highprinces and scholars/ardents that survived because Shallan got the gate working that can testify that that happened. Also, Shallan's Lightweaving has gotten better so she be able to exude even more confidence and believeability.  Don't the neutral/indifferent Sebarial was there, as well as Aladar, who had been siding with Sadeas up till that point. 

2 hours ago, CaptainRyan said:

While we, as the readers, understand that I'm not so sure the characters agree.

They are more likely to agree, because even after the seat of power moved to the Shattered Plains, Jasnah didn't. They didn't just read about these events in a couple pf books, they lived those years out. Jasnah was not a major player in Alethi politics for years. There is no reason to believe they would not recognize that more than we would. We didn't get to read about every political meeting over the past six years, but they were there, and Jasnah's absence would have been obvious. You think three years after Gavilar's death with Jasnah knee deep in research the Alethi elite would still consider her a major political player?? Anyone not at the shattered plains was not a major player. 

 

2 hours ago, DSC01 said:

I think that Ialai will think it's all nonsense

That could be. But I have never disputed that if someone wanted to head down that path for irrational reasons, they could.

But let's keep in mind that the Everstorm really happened, that the armies really wore teleported. Ialai can choose not to believe any of that, but as I mentioned, Aladar can confirm it. If she's acting rationally, then there is a lot more credibility there. 

I mentioned the KRs returning because it factors into the power shift occurring. It doesn't matter how much someone believes it's really happening, whether it's a good thing, etc. What matters is that it could reduce the number of potential allies she has available, or even cause one to go double-agent on her. It could spark some noble reactions as well, but just from a pure survival/shrewdness standpoint, it's prudent to be careful. More so with Sadeas dead, because now he really can't try and take Dalinar down -- the power shift became more palpable. And even if someone thinks the Kholins did it, that doesn't mean said someone's loyalties will not shift to the apparent victor as a matter of being pragmatic.

Another factor is the desolation has hit. That could affect how tolerant Dalinar is to childish highprinces.

Frustrating we have another year to wait to say the least!!

[DSC01 he/him]

Yeah, I'm not assuming that characters are going to behave rationally. Well, it may actually be rational, from their point of view, but it isn't when you know what is actually going on.

It's like in The Wheel of Time--various characters just absolutely refuse to go along with major changes in the status quo (right up to the final book in the series), which can be frustrating but actually makes perfect sense. Things change that have been in place for 3,000 years, so why would anyone just take someone's word that they were different now? The evidence is easy to ignore because, sure, something weird is happening, but that doesn't mean that some guy's insane explanation for it is true. And most people resist status quo changes anyway, which means that convincing evidence can and will be ignored.

So, yes, Shallan found an ancient fabrial that teleported thousands of people to a mythical city. Does that mean that everyone will accept her word that she is a Radiant? There will be witnesses who will say that they saw her magically transferring Stormlight and such, but who knows what those witnesses really saw? If this fabrial can teleport an army, who knows what else it can do? Moving Stormlight around doesn't prove that there are Radiants running around!

I mean, if I told a Christian who firmly believes that Jesus will come back from the dead someday that he in fact had returned--according to their own beliefs--they likely would not believe me. I could point to miracles or any number of things, but they would probably still assume that there must be another explanation. I'd wager that a good number of them could perform the Doubting Thomas check and still not be convinced.

And that's why I believe that there is going to be a lot of skepticism about what Jasnah reports when she shows up in Urithiru. It's easy for people to conflate things, i.e. "I'm suspicious of that person, and there's a suspicious situation going on, so I bet those two are connected." It's absolutely irrational, but it happens all the time. Maybe Ialai doesn't seem the type to be that way, but she's going to be in mourning and is already not inclined to look at any Kholin favorably. 

[HonorIsDead he/him]

On ‎2016‎-‎08‎-‎01 at 11:00 PM, maxal said:

The unofficial consequences would have to deal with the ramifications not tied to the official judgement. Law may find Adolin "not guilty", but Dalinar may lose the trust he once had in his son. I'd be bold here and claim he didn't have a lot of it to begin with, therefore to see his son spontaneously take one step into his shadow as the Blackthorn may be enough to destroy what was once there. I know, saying Dalinar is not exactly trusting Adolin is a bold statement, but from my perspective, when you work so hard to have your son and heir endorse one very specific, rigid and constraint set of rules, claiming you wish he may see their wisdom if forced to obey them long enough, you aren't exactly being trusting. In other words, it seems to me Dalinar does not trust Adolin will make the right choices, on his own, and he over-compensates by enforcing a bizarre set of incoherent rules meant to force him to walk a tight line. It is only, towards the end, he openly states the finally trusts him only to see this trust being broken soon after. I'd thus say, I'd be extremely surprised if Dalinar were to react positively. Therefore, no matter which way the legality of Adolin's actions swing, it is safe to assume Dalinar will cause his own set of ramifications. Losing this trust will probably impact Adolin badly.

I don't think the ramifications from Dalinar will be that bad so long as one of Kaladin's squad talks a bit of sense into him, I was going to say that kaladin would fix the problem since he will be extremely happy to see sadeas in all likelyhood after he killed so many of his bridge crew but I remembered that he's headed home so he won't be around, so long as one of his squad steps in though, like Teft, they should be able to diffuse most of Dalinar's anger with reasoning so he is left with just the disappointment, given this is a very optimistic idea seeing as kaladin's squad isn't nearly as close to dalinar as Kaladin is but its still a possibility 

[Guest]

On 8/11/2016 at 11:05 AM, DSC01 said:

Would an assassin know that Shardblades are not good for fighting in close quarters? Yes. Regardless of how much they might or might not know about Shardblades, I assume that many assassins know things about weapons and fighting in general. There are lots of weapons that are bad for close-quarters fighting because of their size. They wouldn't have had to have ever heard of a Shardblade in order to know that if they need to fight someone with a large weapon, attacking them in close quarters is the way to go.

You are making many assumptions which cannot be verified by any textual evidence. You are assuming assassins would be well aware of the intricacies of fighting a full Shardbearer when the text at hand suggest only a handful of people get such training. You are also assuming assassins are regularly used to kill Shardbearers, often enough at least for them to be familiar with how to best slay one. There is no such evidence which I recalled reading. Therefore, in the absence of such evidence, and when faced with the fact limited people get to even approach a real Shardblade, I take it random assassins may be not as knowledgeable as you make them be. It may be they are, but there is no evidence to support it. I am therefore remaining on my previous position until a stronger claim can be made to dispute my own.

On 8/11/2016 at 11:05 AM, DSC01 said:

Also, I feel like a lot of people, not just you, are forgetting about the existence of spanreeds, or at least not taking their implications into account. Why would an assassin choose right then to attack Sadeas? Because they just got the order to take him down. Remember, based on Jasnah's meeting with the Weeper, we know that someone might hire an assassin to stay close to someone and watch them, then later send instructions to kill them. Sadeas arriving in Urithiru could have been what triggered that order. It could have been something like, "Take Sadeas out immediately, before he is able to establish any influence in Urithiru." We know that is not the case, but others do not, and there is plenty of reason to suspect that if an assassin were to be ordered to kill Sadeas immediately, they would choose dark, labyrinthine corridors in a mostly uncharted city. I think that you and I are envisioning the corridors in Urithiru differently because, whereas you are thinking them a poor place for an assassination, I see them as ideal. 

We do know a little about how assassins might operate, based on what we've seen of the attempt to assassinate Jasnah. We don't know exactly who ordered the killing yet (except that it was a Ghostblood), but we do know that they probably weren't anywhere near Jasnah at the time. All of the orders were communicated via spanreed. Maybe the person giving the orders never even met Jasnah, and all of their information on her activities came via long-distance communication. I think that anyone well-versed in clandestine scheming on Roshar would never say, "Oh, that person hasn't even been around in months. There's no way they have anything to do with this!"

Now, we know that after Gavilar's death, Jasnah mostly gave up on her scheming and devoted herself to researching Voidbringers and such. However public that might be, a dedicated schemer would probably think that is just a smokescreen. Someone like Ialai probably thinks that Jasnah's traveling is actually her trying to influence foreign governments and assumes that she is getting periodic--perhaps even daily--reports from multiple agents across Alethkar, on the Shattered Plains, etc. As soon as Jasnah shows up, very much not dead, a lot of people are going to say, "Her supposed death was all a trick!" And then they'll start trying to figure out what that trick was, what secret maneuvering it was supposed to obscure.

I did not forget the existence of spanreed: I am perfectly aware they exist as a mean of communication but I do not consider their existence makes it more likely for Jasnah to be the culprit. Why? Because Jasnah has been away from the Shattered Plains for so long (Shallan noted how her notes were outdated), she isn't familiar with the political intricacies currently going on to call for a hit. And yes while she has been maintaining steady contact with her mother, she still was very much unaware of the power game going on there. Therefore to think she would order an assassin, through a spanreed communication, after having faked her death (with the complicity of her family which managed to look properly sadden by her death) simply does not fit within her traditional reaction patterns. Jasnah is careful, she is wise, before calling a hit, she makes sure it is the right move. She would just send notice to some random assassin to take out Sadeas right after her uncle made a huge victory. It is baffling. For a Kohlin's perspective, Dalinar won, Sadeas lost. He either has to fall in rank or go rogue: it is not logical to send an assassin now. Not when "faking to be dead Jasnah" could have send her assassin a few weeks earlier when Sadeas truly was a problem.

This is where the theory falls apart, IMHO. Jasnah was not aware of the "Sadeas problem" until this last spanreed communication with her mother, the one right before she was killed and even then, it isn't clear if it bear the mention of Sadeas's name.

There is also the fact neither Sadeas nor Ialai ever mention Jasnah. Their plan is to remove the Kholins, to break them, to destroy them, but not once did clever Ialai express worries over what Jasnah may be about. Not once did she ask Torroll to be careful about her, but she did tell him to mind Adolin, she warned him he was dangerous. As Argel argued in later posts: Jasnah has not been a player in the game for quite some time. They aren't counting her in.

For my part, the when and the how simply rules out Jasnah and her assassin network. Blaming feels like searching for the needle in a haystack: yes you may find it, but your chances are rather slim. Therefore, yes it could have been Jasnah orchestrated the whole thing, but it seems too improbable for it to be true and I doubt people are going to go for the least plausible explanation, not when better ones are readily obtainable.

On 8/11/2016 at 3:06 PM, Pathfinder said:

You misunderstand my point. Dalinar days earlier invited the highprinces to come to Urithiru. Sadeas accepted said invitation. So Adolin and everyone else going to Urithiru has known Sadeas is going to the city for awhile. Plenty of time for lets say, hypothetically, for another highprince to order one of his assassins on staff, to infiltrate Sadeas's gathering camp as they make the travel to Urithiru, and then settle into the city. Adolin can be as surprised as he wants to be that Sadeas decided to come, but that doesn't change the amount of time it took from Sadeas's acceptance to arriving at the city. Plenty of time to arrange a hit. 

And you are misunderstanding my point. Yes Dalinar invited the Highprinces to come to the hidden city, but it is nowhere stated Sadeas send words of his arrival. The fact he accepted the invitation (accepting the invitation does not imply he send a formal response, it merely means he packed his things and he made his way towards the city.) and actually come does not imply the Kholins were aware of his arrival. Everything within Adolin's POV indicates surprises at seeing him here: if he knew he were coming, he'd just cursed the sky he had to stumble on him: he wouldn't curse the sky he decided to actually come. 

I am sorry but nowhere within the evidence you posted is it stated Sadeas warned anyone of his arrival.  

On 8/11/2016 at 3:06 PM, Pathfinder said:

They are exploring abandoned ruins. They are in a remote location. This couldn't be a more prime spot to do it. At this point we are just repeating ourselves, so I won't berate this point. Just agree to disagree. (for your reference I will be happy to quote your earlier posts and mine citing how this is rehashing the same information)

Of course I am rehashing the same information: my point is not getting across. Your thoughts are the fact it is a remote unknown locations makes it a prime spot for an assassination while my thoughts are this very same fact makes the assassination less likely because it deprives the assassin from having gotten acquainted with his surrounding and thus be capable to plan adequately. Your thoughts also are in was intrinsically obvious for any assassin the time frame in this specific scene was long enough for a skilled assassin to figure out he had enough time to carry it on while my thoughts are there where too many unknowns for a skilled assassin to gamble on.

Since our thoughts over the same evidence are diametrically opposed, I do agree to disagree with you. Our respective positions do currently seems to be at odds.

On 8/11/2016 at 3:06 PM, Pathfinder said:

As I said in the previous post, so I will be repeating this, Shallan herself stated Mraize infiltrated the armies coming into the city. How she tried to keep Urithiru away from the Ghostsbloods, but inadvertently handed it to them on a platter. I will be happy to provide the quote if necessary. 

And as I said in my previous post I do not consider this feat sufficient to explain how an assassin may have done the same within the Sadeas entourage. The Ghostblood also seem to be a rather more organized, informed and capable organization then a mere assassin would be, but of course this isn't a conclusive evidence, just mere thoughts. My thoughts are thus your argument is not strong enough for myself to revise my position and while I do agree it isn't technically impossible, I still think it too implausible for someone as cunning as Ialai to think it a logical conclusion. 

I again agree to disagree with you since our respective positions seems, again, at odds.

On 8/11/2016 at 3:06 PM, Pathfinder said:

I have absolutely no training in swordplay whatsoever, but when I see someone wielding a 6 foot long sword, even I know its useless in a chest to chest fight. I also have absolutely no skill with ak-47s, but again I know if i am up close and in the persons face, firing the gun to kill me is next to useless. And this is not counting the skills an assassin would have to have to be successful at all. What kind of assassins do you think exist in this world that they are in your mind so inept?

See my answer above: you are making an assumption on how trained assassins are. My position is Shardblade fighting training is so restricted it seems more probable assassins wouldn't be overly familiar with them. My position also is assassins aren't usually used on Shardbearers as these are practically untouchable. Thus is my position until I am given evidence I am wrong in my thinking. Until then, I again agree to disagree.

On 8/11/2016 at 3:06 PM, Pathfinder said:

o again, I cite an example of an individual that accomplished exactly what you stated is impossible, but it is more probable that Ialai knows exactly how every assassin works, so has prepared for every eventuality so she knows in that exact situation, that her husband would be perfectly safe because since she knows assassins so well, she knows they would never even attempt such a strike?

My point is, if Ialai is as knowledgeable as the text at hand wants us to believe she is, then why would she think the most implausible murder scene has to be the work of an assassin? It was sloppy. It was messy. It was ill-timed. It can't have been the work of a skilled assassin. If assassin it was, then it was a sloppy one and Ialai would never think someone cunning would hire someone as sloppy.

A hundred percent probably typically is impossible which is why most people have to deal with statistics. Statistically wise, the probability of an assassin to strike a direct hit at a full Shardbearer has to be extremely small. It isn't impossible, but the odds are strongly against it and since they are against it, I disagree Ialai first line of thoughts would be to blame Jasnah and her potential network of assassins (which has gone inactive years ago) would be behind it. 

In a general manner, I do agree when all ends fail, the improbable must be true, but in this specific case, there are so many more plausible culprits I do not see Ialai go for the most unlikely one.

On 8/11/2016 at 3:06 PM, Pathfinder said:

That is incorrect. The scene played out where Sadeas noticed Adolin. They had an extended conversation. Long enough for Adolin and Sadeas to be close enough for Adolin to strike. There wasn't "hi adolin, how are...oh god your attacking me!". it was "hi adolin. how are you? you are good? that is great? this place is awesome. your father sucks. don't worry i will find a way to make everyone believe that too. you don't like it? tough, i am going to do it anyway. oh god now you are attacking me!". If you would like a refresher on how the scene plays out for accuracy, I will be happy to post the quote. oh and regarding Game of Thrones, please see Jaoquin in the Lannister keep, killing the ones Arya names.

The moment Sadeas noticed Adolin would be the moment your assassin would have chosen to strike. At this point in time, the fact no one was coming back or close enough to hear was not known. We, the readers, know it was long enough, but an assassin would not have known that in advance. Of course, this is rehashing. I have said this before. An assassin would not chance on it unless he was forced too, an assassin would not have had a prolonged conversation with Sadeas either thus confirming the time frame was right: Sadeas would not engage into conversation with a random nobody or a servant or a slave or a soldier or anyone the assassin is passing for. 

In the case you highlighted in GoT, Jaoquin was pressed in time because Arya gave him the explicit order to kill the man NOW. It wasn't his preferred way of working and while it did happen, it happen because of necessity. We later see in Arya's training assassins take their time to know their kill, to know their habits, to figure out the best way of kiling the person and the right moment to strike: they don't jump unprepared on a target within an unknown location and while it may happen they do, it usually is because other events are pushing them. There are no such events within the scene at hand. It thus makes the conclusion rather implausible.

On 8/11/2016 at 3:06 PM, Pathfinder said:

when did I say irrevocably? also please re-read the portion you quoted. I stated I do not believe Jasnah ordered the assassination. I was stating it was feasible and realistic for people who discover the murder scene to consider assassination. That coupled with the level of forensics they have access to, it would be difficult to rule it out. Since I started, I stated it would be possible. I never said Adolin would get off scott free. I never said they would only think it was an assassin. I said an assassin could pull off the murder, and would be considered as a valid possibility. If you are responding to DSC01's comments regarding Jasnah, then quote DSC01 when you are responding to that portion, not me as that was not my argument. 

And my answer was I found it implausible for someone as cunning as Ialai to realistically come to this conclusion and to be willing to act on it. I also was quoting you and not DSC01, the aggressiveness seems unwarranted. I used the word irrevocably because you have been argued with a given level of certainty Ialai would blame the murder on an assassin sent by Jasnah. If your position is other, then you haven't make it clear enough, hence my response. 

For the rest, I agree to disagree with you on the whole affair. Our positions appears incompatible. I do not find the arguments you have brought forward to be reasonably strong enough to justify such a plot line to be deployed. I agree there is a small possibility it may happen, but it is so small I see it as practically impossible.

On 8/11/2016 at 3:43 PM, Argel said:

It's pretty clear the Ghostbloods were not keeping close tabs on her. If they were, they would have figured out she was Veil a long time ago. Don't forget if they were keeping close tabs on Shallan then that would include when she gets back to Sebarial's place. The Ghostbloods do not seem like a huge organization, so I doubt they have enough resources to watch everyone they want to -- they likely have to pick and choose. Or contract out, like with Tyn, but they will want to be careful with that -- e.g. to not revel too much about what they are interested in.

Oh but I said this because I do believe the Ghostblood knew she was Veil since the start. Or perhaps not the start, start, but early on. My thoughts are she didn't fool them, but these are my thoughts, there is no strong evidence supporting it.

Overall, I'll say I generally agree with Argel: blaming Jasnah is too far-fetched. She has not been a major political player in years and if Ialai is as informed as we were led to believe, she would have known Jasnah has gone dormant for years not to forget the ploy required to fake the death of a princess with the complicity of her entire family makes it even more unlikely anyone would even go down this way. 

5 hours ago, DSC01 said:

Keep in mind, this is my idea, but I'm not exactly married to it. I am just defending it as a possibility, knowing that it depends on a lot of variables that we currently know very little about. For example, did Adolin clean up the crime scene adequately? If he didn't, then people will be following his trail, not chasing imaginary assassins. But that's an unknown. So this bit of speculation from me is saying, "Let's assume that Adolin cleaned up the crime scene well enough that people are thinking professional killers were involved."

This is the main problem with your theory: we know Adolin did NOT clean up the scene adequately. 

He has erase one mark with his Blade. Anyone with two eyes would notice the scratch on the wall and anyone with half a brain would determine it must have been one of those marks the scouting parties are making. From there, simple investigation will determine one was indeed in the corner and the only not acquainted with individual was Adolin. Also, he may have erase one mark and walk away: he didn't make a plausible trail to explain his presence. Anyone who claims to be clever would figure it out.

And I am not even talking of the knife (where is it) or the missing cuffs which someone is bond to notice.

The second they figure out the killer must have been within the scouting parties, any assassin related theories will be ignored.

 

[DSC01 he/him]

Here's the thing: not being good in close-quarters combat is not a feature of Shardblades in particular. It applies to all large weapons.  If you found a medievalist in real life who had never read a fantasy book, he would tell you that a large sword is bad for fighting in close quarters. So if someone with no Shardblade was given the unenviable task of killing a Shardbearer, a place like corridors of Urithiru is exactly where they would choose to attack.

And we most certainly do not know that Adolin failed to adequately clean up the crime scene. Yes, it will be immediately obvious that the mark was scraped off with a Shardblade, but investigators will already be well aware that there was a Shardblade at the scene--Sadeas's.

While a lot of what I've said about this situation is pure speculation, with little evidence available to base any of it on, I am reasonably certain that investigators will conclude that someone on one of the exploration teams saw an opportunity to attack Sadeas where his Shardblade would not be an advantage, killed him, and used Oathbringer to remove his distinctive mark from the wall. Maybe they won't think assassins. Maybe they'll assume that a former bridgeman did it. Whatever they think, Adolin is probably not going to be the first suspect (unless something else is found at the scene).

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, DSC01 said:

Here's the thing: not being good in close-quarters combat is not a feature of Shardblades in particular. It applies to all large weapons.  If you found a medievalist in real life who had never read a fantasy book, he would tell you that a large sword is bad for fighting in close quarters. So if someone with no Shardblade was given the unenviable task of killing a Shardbearer, a place like corridors of Urithiru is exactly where they would choose to attack.

And we most certainly do not know that Adolin failed to adequately clean up the crime scene. Yes, it will be immediately obvious that the mark was scraped off with a Shardblade, but investigators will already be well aware that there was a Shardblade at the scene--Sadeas's.

While a lot of what I've said about this situation is pure speculation, with little evidence available to base any of it on, I am reasonably certain that investigators will conclude that someone on one of the exploration teams saw an opportunity to attack Sadeas where his Shardblade would not be an advantage, killed him, and used Oathbringer to remove his distinctive mark from the wall. Maybe they won't think assassins. Maybe they'll assume that a former bridgeman did it. Whatever they think, Adolin is probably not going to be the first suspect (unless something else is found at the scene).

The problems with the mark is not it has been erased with a Shardblade: I agree this fact alone is not conclusive. I agree Oathbringer could have been used. The relevant piece of information is not the method used to scratch it, but the fact something had to be scratch to begin with. An assassin approaching Sadeas for murdering would never leave a mark on the wall to be erased, unless his goal was to pin the murder on a random explorer. Unfortunately, Adolin left quite a trail of marks, but he erased only one. How about the others he made on his way to the murder scene? And how about the ones he didn't make to make his story of him wandering elsewhere plausible? Any investigation would highlight this fact. A clever assassin would leave a plausible trail of marks in order to pin the murder on an explorer, but this is really hard to pull out for someone not even aware there was a scouting party nearby.

Therefore, Adolin did not clean the scene adequately. He did not leave a plausible trail of marks behind him to validate his story. Another point, anyone took note of what he did with his lamp? Adolin was using an oil lamp while exploring, stating stormlight was running low. Now I am quoting this from memory (I do not have access to my books), but from what I recall, he left it somewhere and it nowhere is mentioned him taking it back. 

Is Adolin thus walking around, dazed and confused, making random incoherent marks, alone in the dark with cut off cuff, a tattered uniform and no lantern at all?

This being said, I do agree Adolin is unlikely to be the first prime suspect, but further investigation should close the trap on him. Once they identified the culprit is someone from the investigation parties, unless his men decide to lie for him, then someone will admit Adolin has been wandering alone. Another would say he noticed the Prince's uniform has been damaged. A third one may say he was walking, alone, in the dark, without his lantern and when asked, he would merely state he dropped it somewhere. Unfortunately, somewhere may very well right next to the murder scene.

But all this happens only if Adolin does not admit his guilt first.

 

[Rellar he/him]

On 7/31/2016 at 4:28 PM, I_am_a_Stick said:

Brandon Sanderson is likely to kill off ANYONE in the next couple of books from what I've learnt 

I doubt he'd kill off Kaladin or even Shallan atleast for right now, but Dalinar I got a hunch he might just make kick the ol' bucket at the end of three. Maybe even Adolin.

Edited August 13, 2016 by Rellar

[Stick. she/her]

Just now, Rellar said:

I doubt he'd kill off Kaladin or even Shallan atleast for right now, but Dalinar I got a hunch he might just make kick the ol' bucket at the end of three. Maybe even Adolin.

Adolin is very likely to die near the end of the series

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Rellar said:

I doubt he'd kill off Kaladin or even Shallan atleast for right now, but Dalinar I got a hunch he might just make kick the ol' bucket at the end of three. Maybe even Adolin.

 

8 hours ago, I_am_a_Stick said:

Adolin is very likely to die near the end of the series

Actually Adolin is very likely to survive. And so is Kaladin. Major characters whom I think will die: Szeth and Eshonai. Potentially Renarin, but maybe not until the second half. Dalinar, but it may be a Red Herring. The wild guess would be Shallan: we all expect her to survive, but she may die.

[Argel he/him]

15 hours ago, maxal said:

he left it somewhere and it nowhere is mentioned him taking it back.

I just re-read the scene. He leaves it behind when he first hears the voices, so it wouldn't give him away. 

But I hate to say this, but it feels like some sloppy writing here. Sadeas also has a lantern, and we learn nothing about it in the fight. It's like it's in his hand when they meet, and then they start fighting, rolling, etc. and we never learn anything about Sadeas's lantern. Later on, Sadeas uses his hands to defend, so we know he doesn't have it later on. So it was dropped at some point, but there's no mention of it, even though supposedly that's the main source of light for that scene.

We know Brandon felt a bit rushed with WoR (the revisions, why SA3 was delyaed), etc.. Maybe this was one of those scenes where problems with it easily overlooked so it was never updated. 

I had a theory that it was to help us feel the sense of shock Adolin was feeling aftwerwords, but the problems start before then with Sadeas's lantern. It's not even clear how Adolin can see down to the platform below. The lantern has to still be up there, and we are never told he picks it up. Only thing that would make sense is if the lanterns can hover or are on a pole that never tips over.

Anyway, at this point I am hesitant to try and draw too much from this scene because too much is left out.

Edited August 13, 2016 by Argel

[Rellar he/him]

9 hours ago, Argel said:

I just re-read the scene. He leaves it behind when he first hears the voices, so it wouldn't give him away. 

But I hate to say this, but it feels like some sloppy writing here. Sadeas also has a lantern, and we learn nothing about it in the fight. It's like it's in his hand when they meet, and then they start fighting, rolling, etc. and we never learn anything about Sadeas's lantern. Later on, Sadeas uses his hands to defend, so we know he doesn't have it later on. So it was dropped at some point, but there's no mention of it, even though supposedly that's the main source of light for that scene.

We know Brandon felt a bit rushed with WoR (the revisions, why SA3 was delyaed), etc.. Maybe this was one of those scenes where problems with it easily overlooked so it was never updated. 

I had a theory that it was to help us feel the sense of shock Adolin was feeling aftwerwords, but the problems start before then with Sadeas's lantern. It's not even clear how Adolin can see down to the platform below. The lantern has to still be up there, and we are never told he picks it up. Only thing that would make sense is if the lanterns can hover or are on a pole that never tips over.

Anyway, at this point I am hesitant to try and draw too much from this scene because too much is left out.

I mean if we have to comb over small scenes like this for plot holes, we got it pretty easy on the plot hole department. 

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Argel said:

I just re-read the scene. He leaves it behind when he first hears the voices, so it wouldn't give him away. 

But I hate to say this, but it feels like some sloppy writing here. Sadeas also has a lantern, and we learn nothing about it in the fight. It's like it's in his hand when they meet, and then they start fighting, rolling, etc. and we never learn anything about Sadeas's lantern. Later on, Sadeas uses his hands to defend, so we know he doesn't have it later on. So it was dropped at some point, but there's no mention of it, even though supposedly that's the main source of light for that scene.

We know Brandon felt a bit rushed with WoR (the revisions, why SA3 was delyaed), etc.. Maybe this was one of those scenes where problems with it easily overlooked so it was never updated. 

I had a theory that it was to help us feel the sense of shock Adolin was feeling aftwerwords, but the problems start before then with Sadeas's lantern. It's not even clear how Adolin can see down to the platform below. The lantern has to still be up there, and we are never told he picks it up. Only thing that would make sense is if the lanterns can hover or are on a pole that never tips over.

Anyway, at this point I am hesitant to try and draw too much from this scene because too much is left out.

I think the reason it feels sloppy is intentional. The author clearly wants us to wonder what may play a role in the aftermath of Sadeas's death. He purposefully did not tell us what happened to Adolin's knife. He also didn't say anything about the lantern... Yes, Adolin left his lantern behind when he hears the voice such as not to give himself away, but my question was, does he take it back when he leaves? This is another untied loose end which may or may not end up being significant. Dazed as he was, it wouldn't surprised me if he thought to remove his bloody cuffs (after all fashion wiz Adolin would frown at stains on clothes), to hide Oathbringer (as others pointed out, it was his father's Blade), to hide his own mark (exploring is what he was doing at the time of the murder), but to forget everything about the knife and the lantern.

Or maybe Adolin picked up Sadeas lantern and not his own...

We are supposed, I think, to get the sense of shock when reading Adolin and I definitely feel it. His actions, while all seeming logica, seem as if he is walking through a fog. 

I thus maintain my earlier point: Adolin did not clean up the scene adequately. It isn't a plot hole, it is deliberate from the author's part.

[Argel he/him]

Adolin had to pick Sadeas lantern up to see the platform below.  Well, I suppose if there is a ledge along the floor, the lantern could have fallen in such a way as to light the fight scene area and the area below, but it's a stretch. And then work his way back to his lantern in the dark (or maybe his was casting enough light to be visible enough to work his way back). 

I'm leaning towards a bit of both -- he used Sadeas lantern for that area (e.g. where to throw the Blade) but left it behind to pick his up. If not, then he has two lanterns to deal with. He backtracked, so assuming his lantern is giving off light (and that is implies because if it could be shuttered, he could have brought it with him), it would be hard to miss.

[Oversleep]

I agree with @maxal. The scene is done that way to magnify the sense of shock - after all, glossing over details like "Adolin checked his clothes for blood" etc takes away from it.

The way I see it is that Adolin's PoV in Oathbringer will contain retelling of the events in internal monologue to tell us what he did and what he didn't and what he isn't sure about. That way Brandon can do with it whatever he wants. If Adolin says he forgot the knife or left his lantern there, it fits. If Adolin says he meticulously cleaned up evidence, it fits. If he won't remember whether he checked Sadeas body for torn fragments of his Kholin uniform, it fits.

[HonorIsDead he/him]

On ‎2016‎-‎08‎-‎11 at 11:05 AM, DSC01 said:

Would an assassin know that Shardblades are not good for fighting in close quarters? Yes. Regardless of how much they might or might not know about Shardblades, I assume that many assassins know things about weapons and fighting in general. There are lots of weapons that are bad for close-quarters fighting because of their size. They wouldn't have had to have ever heard of a Shardblade in order to know that if they need to fight someone with a large weapon, attacking them in close quarters is the way to go

But they aren't really, Shardblades are, more or less, just about as good inside as outside, assassins may assume that Shardblades are bad for close quarters but it doesn't really make much difference seeing as they just cut through things that get in the way, when ever Shardbearers fight it is almost always close quarters, look at the battles on the shattered plains, they are surrounded and pretty much covered in bodies but they still fight with no difficulty, or the fight between Szeth and Gavilar, the close quarters didn't hinder either of the to any extent really, so while assassin may assume that, its not really true.

[HonorIsDead he/him]

On ‎2016‎-‎08‎-‎12 at 6:15 PM, maxal said:

You are assuming assassins would be well aware of the intricacies of fighting a full Shardbearer

if they are assassins they wouldn't be fighting him when he is a full shardbearer, they would strike specifically when he was least protected, when he would only have his Shardblade and be very possibly intoxicated or drowsy.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Oversleep said:

I agree with @maxal. The scene is done that way to magnify the sense of shock - after all, glossing over details like "Adolin checked his clothes for blood" etc takes away from it.

The way I see it is that Adolin's PoV in Oathbringer will contain retelling of the events in internal monologue to tell us what he did and what he didn't and what he isn't sure about. That way Brandon can do with it whatever he wants. If Adolin says he forgot the knife or left his lantern there, it fits. If Adolin says he meticulously cleaned up evidence, it fits. If he won't remember whether he checked Sadeas body for torn fragments of his Kholin uniform, it fits.

It would also fit if he didn't remember anything at all. I wouldn't even be surprised if he had a hard time recalling everything which happened: he'd remember killing Sadeas, but he may not remember Sadeas's entire monologue or what he did after wards with any level of precision. It would fit if Dalinar tries to interrogate him only to get fragmented answers. 

I would personally be very surprised to read he meticulously clean the scene and he forgot nothing. The way I read Adolin after the murdering is how a person gets after something harsh or traumatizing happens, how one tries to sooth his own self with shaking hands, how one tries to go through regular motions such as to bring his state back to normal... The scene does not feature Adolin checking out for ripped pieces of his uniform over Sadeas's body because it would be too meticulous, to thoughtful and it would clash with the shock state he is going through. It could be he removed the knot for his shoulder still grip in Sadeas's dead hand with shaking hands, but it is more likely he refused to touch the dead body. It may be he merely thought of stains on his uniform, but not of much else. 

36 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

if they are assassins they wouldn't be fighting him when he is a full shardbearer, they would strike specifically when he was least protected, when he would only have his Shardblade and be very possibly intoxicated or drowsy.

I do agree with this. It does not make sense, to me, for an assassin to jump on Sadeas, at this one precise moment and to kill him in such a fashion. I suspect parties involve will make the same reasoning and while the can't remove possibilities up until they figure out the truth, I am rather convinced they will think it unlikely it was the work of an assassin.

My thoughts are Adolin is found it rather quickly, in Part 1 actually.