Long Game 21: To Reforge a God

[Seonid he/him]

I realize that this is inconvenient for everyone, but I've had things come up that make it so I can't realistically handle rollover tonight. Honestly, the next time I'm going to be able to be here long enough to rollover the cycle is when the next rollover would have been.

 

So - this cycle is extended for 37 hours. My apologies for the inconvenience.

 

If I have missed any questions, go ahead and re-ask them in the PM. I will try to be in enough before then to answer any questions posed to me.

 

[Haelbarde he/him]

Vote Tally:
Burnt(0): Mail{1}, Bard{1}
Cloud(1): Lopen{1}, DC{2}, Rae{3}
Rae(0): Nyali{1}, DC{1}
Araris(0): Rae{1}
Joe(0): Conquestor{1}
Aman(0): Mail{2}, Alv{1}
DC(8): DC{2}, Nyali{2}, Conquestor{2}, Lopen{2}, Sheep, Aman{1}, Araris{2}, Leif, Bard{2}, Alv{2}
Lopen(2): Rae{2}, Mail{3}, Aman{2}, Rae{4}, Araris{1}
Alv(0): Mail{4}
Mail(1): Mail{5}

 

DC(8): Nyali, Conquestor, Lopen, Sheep, Araris, Leif, Bard, Alv

Lopen(2): Aman, Rae

Mail(1): Mail

Cloud(1): DC

 

Does that look about right?

[Young Bard he/him]

Out of interest, what's the usefulness of showing everybody's vote history? I could understand looking at, say, Aman's vote history from a previous day, but everything he did today was just to play mind games with all of us, and therefore we can't really guess solidly based on any of it.

[Haelbarde he/him]

I like doing as it helps me keep track of if stuffs being retracted or not. It's also information that's easy to include when creating a tally, so why not. Don't know if anyone's ever acted on seeing the vote history, but I guess it could be useful when looking back over past cycles, to catch inconsistencies in voting patterns and player's claims. 

[Mark IV he/him]

Burnt

Ummm, if Lopen is probably not Odium's champion, then why aren't we killing the other probable champion? Maill has said Burnt might be it. Perhaps, she might.

Thoughts?

[Young Bard he/him]

Because the theory is that Sharders trump Odium on the scale of dangerousness right now, simply because they're a lot closer to gaining their win condition than is comfortable.

[Mark IV he/him]

So, we just leave him alive? While he kills more of us?

[AliasSheep]

I like doing as it helps me keep track of if stuffs being retracted or not. It's also information that's easy to include when creating a tally, so why not. Don't know if anyone's ever acted on seeing the vote history, but I guess it could be useful when looking back over past cycles, to catch inconsistencies in voting patterns and player's claims.

We used it as evidence that Rae was Hoid, earlier on.

About Lopen (we happened to move on while I was asleep, so I'd like to put my thoughts down anyway), he's been posting a lot of Shards and their holders which I previously didn't know, as in, I don't remember those names being revealed anywhere else in the thread. It seems suspicious that he'd be putting out this information that Odium could then use to choose a target. The confusing is, I think Odium has a PM with their champion, so why would he need to do this?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'll try to explain why I think it's best to leave Odium be for now(or RB him) and focus on the 17th Shard.

 

Player list! Bold as probable evils.

 

1. Joe - Preservation(he revealed himself earlier in this very thread)

2. Haelbarde

3. Cloudjumper - suspected evil due to suspicious posts/help save Aman on D1/quietness/lurking

4. Zephrer

5. Araris - claimed in this thread to have started out as either Devotion or Dominion, so village

6. Mailliw

7. Sheep

8. Aman - 17th Sharder/Poisoner/Outed

9. Burnt - ???OC???

10. DC - suspicious due to posts/connections to Rae and Aman on D1/other stuff that's too long to type here

11. phattemer

12. Mark - Survival(obviously, there were blatant hints before it was actually revealed)

13. Conquestor

14. Lopen - Knight Radiant/Honor(might as well reveal, I've already revealed to most players).

15. Arraenae - Hoid.

16. leiftinspace

17. Alvron - Odium

18. The Young Bard

 

Now, we also know that Autonomy is out there, so that's one more "evil" we need to take into account. I have it on good authority that Autonomy has yet to successfully get an Agent, since Elbereth died D1 and their investment on D2 failed because they hit a Shard. So thankfully only one Autonomy player right now, but that could change after this Day Turn. There also could be an Odium's Champ. It's not certain that there is though, because Alv claims he never made a Champ. He could be lying obviously, and I think we would be smart to assume he is. So, that means that there is or could be 3 more evils than the ones I listed above. Maybe even 4 if the 17th Shard started with 5 players(I really hope they didn't, but, hey it's possible). So, looking at it that way, that would make: 9 evils(non-villagers) to 9 villagers. Yikes! However, we know that Autonomy doesn't have an Agent right now and I don't think there would be 5 17th Sharders, so that would make it 11 villagers to 7 non-villagers. In that case, 4 of those 7 would be 17th Sharders, and it's extremely likely that they have Ruin.

 

So, who should we go for? The team that has 2 kills and 2 players, 1 for only Shards and 1 for only non-Shards, but whose identities are compromised(Alv and maybe Burnt)? Or the team with 4 players and 2 kills, planet destruction power, vote manipulative powers, a Poison kill, 2 delayed death roles(Trapper and Outed player), Hoid(a bunch of powers here) and who knows what else? To me, it only makes sense that we'd take out a 17th Sharder, try and RB Aman, so he can't do anything and then try to stop the other 17th Sharders from killing anyone too(Hoid is unable to act right now either because of Joe using his Investment on her), by using our Shardic power. We might even be able to get a roleblock on Alv too, I think. Not sure though, there's still a lot of uncertainty with the plan as it is. Plus, I don't want to completely reveal what our plans are(be assured though, me and the other village Shardholders are planning together).

 

Also, I feel I should try to explain more in depth why I believe DC is a 17th Sharder, because I know that most of you aren't nearly as sure of his 17th Sharderness as I am and so would like a more concrete case for why I am so sure. So...I'll do that tomorrow. (Give me a break, it's the middle of the night right now!)

[Nyali she/her]

Okay, back..... and this is even harder to follow xD Way too much claiming and zombie eliminators.

 

Devotion, if you happen to somehow have a PM left, I'd love to talk to you and/or people you trust completely (especially if one is Endowment). I have a plan I'd like to share in private.

[DeathClutch19 he/him]

FYI I will survive this Lynch

[Arrae]

Okay, back..... and this is even harder to follow xD Way too much claiming and zombie eliminators.

 

Devotion, if you happen to somehow have a PM left, I'd love to talk to you and/or people you trust completely (especially if one is Endowment). I have a plan I'd like to share in private.

 

Sorry if this is hard to follow. Blame Lopen for figuring out Amanuensis's and my alignment. We would have been much sneakier if not for him. 

[Mark IV he/him]

Ah.., alright. I give in! Burnt

Seeing as whether I vote or not, DC will get lynched, I think I will vote for him.

Edited May 22, 2016 by Mark IV

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

DeathClutch post/PM analysis:

 

Firstly, you all should understand that I have learned a lot of information from my PM's, so I believe I know where each village Shard started and possibly where every Shard started as well as what roles some players are claiming. I'm just saying that because it's a big reason why I've narrowed down my suspicions to who I have. There are still some players I'm unsure about of course, but my suspicions are narrowed down to quite a small group of players at this point.

 

Anyways, on to the analysis!

 

Day 1:

 

The first thing I want to bring attention to is that DC left his joke vote on Mark. It was Day 1. So...that's not really that suspicious, right? I didn't think it was. But Aman tried to cast suspicion on DC for not removing his vote from Mark very fast. To me, it appears as if Aman is trying to set it up so that if DC gets revealed as evil, he can later say "I knew there was something off about him" as well as distancing himself from DC is he gets revealed as evil. Mostly, I found it odd that he'd say anything about it as there was still about half of the Day left and the lynch was far from settled on Mark at the time.

 

Next, post 265 in the thread. DC retracts his vote on Mark and votes on Arraenae for voting on Aman. He says he thinks Aman is playing like a villager and is pushing too hard to be evil (edit: "pushing too hard for information to be evil" is what he meant: sorry if it wasn't clear). So he defended Aman's actions. Also, DC's lack of commenting on Aman's suspicion of him for voting on Mark as well as lack of explanation for removing his vote on Mark appear suspicious to me, as if he's trying to not be connected to Aman(he then later responds to both of those things after Sheep prods him about not commenting on those subjects, so that strengthens my belief that Sheep is village too).

 

Post 276 - DC says he believes Aman to be village sided.

 

Arraenae votes on DC to clarify what his list of posters/non-posters meant. She later retracts her vote after DC explains and asks her why she voted on him. A much simpler way to solve that issue would be for her to have just asked DC what it meant. There was no reason for her to vote on him, because she's gonna get an explanation either way. It just looks more like she was trying to distance herself from him than she was genuinely suspicious of him(obviously she wasn't genuine about it, since she's Hoid, but you get what I mean ). DC also later retracts his vote on Arraenae with no explanation(she'd already responded to why she voted on Aman, but he'd forgotten to retract earlier).

 

DC then follows Nyali in voting on Trelagist and even admits he did it to save Aman/Bard from dying. (Note: at this time it was Aman who was most likely going to be lynched, although it wasn't definite)

 

Edit2: End of Day 1 here. (I just like it when things are clear. >>)

 

After Day 1, DC went extremely quiet in the thread until this Day Turn, when I publicly voiced my suspicion of him(I'd already said I was suspicious of him multiple times in the group PM I'm in with him).

 

He voted on Arraenae when she was revealed as Hoid, even though Joe had told us a little earlier that he invested in her and so she couldn't be lynched.

 

DC's suspicion against me. First, he says he's in a group PM with players that he trusts planning stuff. Then, the very next paragraph, he says he thinks I'm evil. He then goes on to say that thing about me saying "they" when referring to the village, which was really taking that conversation out of context.

 

In the group PM:

 

DC again pushed for Aman to not be lynched in the group PM.

 

One thing that I think points to him and Cloudjumper being evil too is that I asked DC what he thought of Cloudjumper on N1 and he said something to the effect of "a little bit suspicious of him, but nothing definite." Which to me seemed really non-committal like he didn't want to take a firm stance either way because he didn't want to end up having to lynch his teammate but he also didn't want to connect to him by saying he thought he was good because he knew I was already suspicious of him.

 

After D1 vote shenanigans, I asked what the group thought about it and DC said that maybe it was Aman trying to take suspicion off of himself by secret voting on himself and moving Elb's vote(which is basically what happened). But before that DC was pretty vocal about thinking Aman was village.

 

I later come up with my complete theory about the vote shenanigans which I then posted in the thread later on and DC said he really agreed with my theory and felt bad about trying to save Aman. He also said if it was true then Mark would be a good candidate for Hoid because he felt like Aman voting on Mark was meant to throw us off.

 

Once Nyali died, DC's first response in the PM was that he thought that she claimed in her world PM. Now, I understand wanting to follow any possible leads, but to me, it sounds too certain, like he knew what happened. Why in the world would Nyali claim to be possibly the most important Shard of all in her World PM on D1/N1?!? (But seriously, that wouldn't be my first thought and I'm surprised it was DC's.)

 

DC did say he'd be fine with lynching Rae on D2. He also put forward a theory that Aman was Ruin and killed Kynedath(Ruin actually killed Quiver though...).

 

Another thing that I believe points to DC being evil is him saying he didn't believe Amans claim of Elantrian. He said something like "it just seems like it was convenient for him to claim that." Now, it gets revealed that he really wasn't an Elantrian, when I think I'd convinced all the villagers that he probably was(funnily enough... ). Both him and Rae acted like Amans claim was false when I don't see any reason for them to think that(unless they already knew it was false), because we knew that an Elantrian had moved a vote and had moved it to save Aman, so why wouldn't it be Aman? It would either be him or his eliminator friend, who wouldn't contradict him and reveal him in the thread(which is what apparently happened?).

 

I guess that's it(there's so much in that group PM that it's difficult to go over every bit of it ). It's not a super definite case that would erase all your doubts about DC not being evil, but it's fairly good evidence in my mind. Enough that I am very confident that he's a 17th Sharder. It also makes sense with how they figured out that PK was Ruin, because we had figured out who most Shards were by N2 and they had the list of who started with what Shard, so it was probably pretty obvious that PK was Ruin to them, because they had insider information from DC about who was what Shard(as well as the fact that they can scan for Shards with Rae's power).

 

Hopefully that was clear. I am pretty tired right now. Didn't get much sleep last night.

 

Rae, my RP response to you is coming up next, but I can't promise when I'll be able to get it done.

Edited May 22, 2016 by TheMightyLopen

[Arrae]

Hopefully that was clear. I am pretty tired right now. Didn't get much sleep last night.

 

Your analysis is very clear. Sorry to hear about your lack of sleep.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Hopefully that was clear. I am pretty tired right now. Didn't get much sleep last night

 

Your analysis is very clear. Sorry to hear about your lack of sleep.

 

It's also very wrong. But Braise if I'm going to stop you from lynching a villager for us. At this rate we're guaranteed to win at the start of the next cycle. Lopen. Deathclutch.

 

EDIT: And oh yeah, get some rest. I'll be finally catching up on lost sleep when I finish work in an hour.

Edited May 22, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Arrae]

Shh you're not supposed to tell them he's a villager!

[Amanuensis he/him]

Shh you're not supposed to tell them he's a villager!

 

As if anyone is going to take anything I say with a grain of salt :[

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I would do witty banter with you...but I'm too tired to think of good responses.

[Arrae]

This thing is pretty dead. Almost as if the lynch is already decided.

Lopen. Deathclutch.

[Amanuensis he/him]

DC(11): Nyali, Conquestor, Lopen, Sheep, Araris, Leif, Bard, Alv, Mark, Aman, Rae

Mail(1): Mail

Cloud(1): DC

 

Hour and a half left. Ya'll sure you want to lynch a villager instead of a Sharder? =\

[A Joe in the Bush]

I don't. I've been arguing against his lynch.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I'm also pretty sure he's a Villager.

[Seonid he/him]

Half an hour left in the cycle!

[Seonid he/him]

And the Day is over!