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Quick Fix Game 15: Death Note

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Alvron
Alvron

QF15: Death Note The television flickers into life.  As expected the leading news article is about more deaths contributed to the mysterious Kira.  The police are baffled as to how Kira is killin

Alvron
Alvron

Day One: The search begins. Case#: 876629 Case#: 876630 Case#: 876638   No one was lynched   And with all those deaths we begin our game.  Good hunting to all.

RippleGylf
RippleGylf
AliasSheep

AliasSheep

Posted
Posted (edited)

I've actually started making notes now.  It's a pity that they won't be the most effective, since I haven't had them since the beginning of the game, but oh well, at least I've learnt now.

 

I'm going to go gather some posts and do some analyses, probably of Elbereth and Burnt.

 

On a side note, Hael's strategy seems like, yes, it would confirm to us if Joe was just following votes, but it's also a fairly decent way (in my reckoning) of hiding Hael actually aiming to lynch a specific target, with Joe playing along for show.  It failed, aye, but it seems kind of... suspicious.  Especially given it seemed to me that Joe was doing that anyway, without needing to check on top.

 

EDIT: Make that one analysis, Elbe has made a lot of posts, and I need to be going in like half an hour

 

Whilst I'm here, I'm going to add a vote for Hael, mostly gut for now, but I haven't been lynching much lately, so I'd like to get discussion going on that

EDIT2:

Elbereth analysis:

1 - Banters with Lopen about changing avatar.  Points out that Ryuk could claim as a PO pretending to be on security detail, and just kills L.  Suggests telling L who the POs are then not telling the POs who L is, then get L to scan one N2 and protection N3.

 

2 - Thinks Joe is probs a civ (due to speed of putting up plan); talks about advantages for holder (can take out POs one by one and know who not to convert + L limited to scanning officers and not Ryuk. Says to kill Joe C2.  Says that we definitely have to use the lynch, relying on L is a bad idea.  Asks for clarification regarding mass murderer reveal.

 

Thinks Bugsy’s plan (random person selected rather than just Joe) isn’t more effective than just Joe.

 

Explains how if two people claim for police detail, we scan one and kill the other to Arraenae.

 

Says that Joe would be the holder not Ryuk, plan is too risky for Ryuk.  Unlikely to be PO or L.  Thinks civ is most likely.

Thinks that it’s equally likely for Ryuk to be active as unactive.

 

Doesn’t think it’s a waste of a cycle to find the Holder.

 

RPs.

 

3 - Points out flaws in my plan (without knowing that L has revealed to me). 1) requires L to trust unscanned, 2) Doesn’t let thread verify Joe’s innocence, 3) killing Joe would be simpler

 

Agrees that DC has ignored all the actual discussion that has been going on and that that makes him suspicious.  Pokes Cloudjumper.

 

Something with Lopen *shrugs*

 

4 - Is supreme ninja.

 

5 - Agrees that my plan makes more sense given L’s actions; complains at L for revealing to unscanned people

 

6 - Talks about PM with Lopen.  Mostly out of game stuff + Evil!Lopen.  Lopen didn’t want to claim to her.  Ryuk’s position makes catching him different from normal eliminators.

 

Asks L who claimed to me not to reveal to anyone else; thinks they’re less likely to be a Holder.

 

7 - RP

 

8 - Also RP

 

9 - RP related OOC stuff

 

10 - Discusses meaning of the Ripple effect

 

11 - Confused about how Ripple effect implies they’re an eliminator; wonders if it’s because they mistook how murderers work

 

12 - Is queen of ninjas.

 

Asks for reasoning behind Strawman’s weird numbers; asks what would happen if someone was suspicious more than 5 times

 

13 - Doubts about poking Webs working.  Pokes Cloud

 

14 - Advises not to ask Alv questions with loopholes in

 

15 - Apologises to Alv for aforementioned advice; has no wishes to deprive Alv of his pleasure. (Note: Refers to Alv as ‘my lord’ - seems suspicious, may indicate being an eliminator)

 

16 - Thanks Cloud for responding to poke, asks for their thoughts on anyone other than Joe, or thoughts on Joe’s plan

 

17 - Is confused about Elodin trusting Joe’s information.

 

Doesn’t know if we should lynch Joe; wastes all of day’s discussion, calls kill and conversion almost identical, if we kill holder we don’t know who the next one will be, a known threat is better than an unknown one.  Says we don’t really care about the holder and should focus on Ryuk.

 

18 - Assumes that Aman’s death was a murderer

 

19 - Reiterates that killing and converting are nearly the same thing.  Acknowledges to Hael that killing Joe will keep him quiet

Thinks the possibility that Joe is Ryuk trying to psyche us out is a good reason to kill him, but doubts that this is the case.

 

20 - Acknowledges that killing Joe gains us more information, but points out that Ryuk converting someone gains them information as well plus more influence over the lynch/murderer.  Doesn’t think the chances of failing conversion are very high (due to dead police) despite being higher than a successful protection.

 

Doesn’t think we should kill Joe, though thinks that him being Ryuk is a good idea to lynch him.

 

Thinks murderers should kill him, not the lynch so as not to stagnate discussion.

 

21 - Analyses Joe’s posts.

Notes that it was unfortunate for Aman to feed false information in MR10.  Notes that the Holder doesn’t need to die for us to win.  Doesn’t think Joe has anything more than Ryuk other than secret roles

 

Asks cloudjumper why Luna should be lynched, suspects influence from Joe.

 

Thinks that Ryuk is one of the villagers voting on Joe at the moment, makes her want to vote Luna (*votes Luna*).  Doesn’t think Joe should die.

 

22 - Thinks Joe’s reaction to Luna is forced; thinks Luna killed Aman.  Either Joe killed Scythe or Ryuk did to convert someone else.  Thinks Joe killing him is more likely.  Says we have to reevaluate everyone the next day.  Thinks if we kill Joe we’ll have to reevaluate everyone again the next day, so says we shouldn’t kill Joe.

23 - Says it would be nice to have a non-Joe led lynch; says an inactive lynch is better than a Joe led lynch.  Votes for Webs, asks Trel to join them.

 

I'm going to have to go soon, so I'll posts my thoughts later, but for now, Haelbarde, Elbereth.

Edited by AliasSheep
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Elbereth

Elbereth

Posted
Posted

Elbereth.

So, as I was saying, for me, it's a toss between Elbereth and Burnt right now.

Sure, Hael could be Ryuk, but if you see, Ryuk has been consistently killing R&R players (except Maill, I believe. He was killed by joe)

(I know this is weak reasoning, but I realised (a bit too late (brackets inside brackets!)) That we need to start voting. So, here I present my feeble suspicions as votes.)

Wait. So, you're not voting on Hael because he's an R&R player and Ryuk's been killing those. (Although, of the R&R players who have died, Lopen's the only one Ryuk's killed, I think. Joe killed Maill and Meta both, and (probably) Luna killed Aman. So I'm not sure if that point stands.) But you're voting on me or Burnt... because we're somewhat R&R? As in, between the new players and the experienced ones? That logic doesn't make much sense to me. I'd actually tend to say that Rem would be fairly new, at least, and I think it's equally likely that Ryuk is an R&R or a newer player.

Also, thanks so much for voting on me twice within 24 hours. I appreciate it. :)

Alias, that's not analysis. That's summaries. And really, if you're not going to comment on the post, people might as well go back and read the posts themselves. Because summaries are going to be slightly biased, whatever you do, so it's better to read the original content. I summarized each post for Joe, yes, but that was in order to comment upon it without having to do a huge wall of quotes. And I only did that because he was known to be an eliminator. For a suspect, I'd just have done anything I found particularly relevant. (Obviously, this is my personal opinion, so if you disagree, feel free to ignore it. But I do feel that summaries without analysis are fairly useless.)

The one comment you do make is that I called Alv "my lord". Which is definitely not alignment-indicative. I would have said exactly the same thing if I were evil. I follow the Lord of Shadows, you see. It's best not to anger him. :)

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AliasSheep

AliasSheep

Posted
Posted

Wait. So, you're not voting on Hael because he's an R&R player and Ryuk's been killing those. (Although, of the R&R players who have died, Lopen's the only one Ryuk's killed, I think. Joe killed Maill and Meta both, and (probably) Luna killed Aman. So I'm not sure if that point stands.) But you're voting on me or Burnt... because we're somewhat R&R? As in, between the new players and the experienced ones? That logic doesn't make much sense to me. I'd actually tend to say that Rem would be fairly new, at least, and I think it's equally likely that Ryuk is an R&R or a newer player.

Also, thanks so much for voting on me twice within 24 hours. I appreciate it. :)

Alias, that's not analysis. That's summaries. And really, if you're not going to comment on the post, people might as well go back and read the posts themselves. Because summaries are going to be slightly biased, whatever you do, so it's better to read the original content. I summarized each post for Joe, yes, but that was in order to comment upon it without having to do a huge wall of quotes. And I only did that because he was known to be an eliminator. For a suspect, I'd just have done anything I found particularly relevant. (Obviously, this is my personal opinion, so if you disagree, feel free to ignore it. But I do feel that summaries without analysis are fairly useless.)

The one comment you do make is that I called Alv "my lord". Which is definitely not alignment-indicative. I would have said exactly the same thing if I were evil. I follow the Lord of Shadows, you see. It's best not to anger him. :)

The analysis bit was when I was to be posted when I got back, summarising the post took me right up to my deadline :P

 

And the Alv bit was a joke :P

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Elbereth

Elbereth

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Posted

I think it's because Mark said it was a tossup between the two of us. He never actually explained why he thought that, though, so right now I'm just waiting for either (non-evil) person voting on me to explain their vote.

For now, I'll poke Ripple, who hasn't posted recently, I don't think. I may change that to someone I actually think is suspicious later.

Also, I'm now less certain that we shouldn't lynch Joe. He said that he hadn't contacted Ryuk yet, right? I don't know if that's trustworthy, but if it is it'd be better to lynch them and keep them out of contact. I'm not sure about this, though, so I won't vote there yet.

Alias, my point was that the summaries by themselves aren't any good to anyone. I mixed mine with analysis, for Joe. If you're not going to do that, you might as well just say why you think I'm suspicious, referencing specific posts when you need to, rather than restating every single post.

Glad to hear you were joking, though. I was slightly concerned.

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AliasSheep

AliasSheep

Posted
Posted

I think it's because Mark said it was a tossup between the two of us. He never actually explained why he thought that, though, so right now I'm just waiting for either (non-evil) person voting on me to explain their vote.

For now, I'll poke Ripple, who hasn't posted recently, I don't think. I may change that to someone I actually think is suspicious later.

Also, I'm now less certain that we shouldn't lynch Joe. He said that he hadn't contacted Ryuk yet, right? I don't know if that's trustworthy, but if it is it'd be better to lynch them and keep them out of contact. I'm not sure about this, though, so I won't vote there yet.

Alias, my point was that the summaries by themselves aren't any good to anyone. I mixed mine with analysis, for Joe. If you're not going to do that, you might as well just say why you think I'm suspicious, referencing specific posts when you need to, rather than restating every single post.

Glad to hear you were joking, though. I was slightly concerned.

 

I'm writing up my thoughts right now the writing for which the summary was very useful.  It made it easier to flick through and gather thoughts up from the summaries instead of digging through posts.  I have the summary in my own notes as well for this purpose.

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Elbereth

Elbereth

Posted
Posted

Yeah, sure. I keep notes of important posts too (when I have time to take notes, which I do not for both this game and LG20 with school, so I am not taking notes for this game, unforutnately). I just... eh. Whatever. I just don't think they're that useful to the thread becuase it's better to go back through the posts yourself so you can see them without bias.

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AliasSheep

AliasSheep

Posted
Posted (edited)

Yeah, sure. I keep notes of important posts too (when I have time to take notes, which I do not for both this game and LG20 with school, so I am not taking notes for this game, unforutnately). I just... eh. Whatever. I just don't think they're that useful to the thread becuase it's better to go back through the posts yourself so you can see them without bias.

*clip*

To be honest, my reasoning for switching to Elbereth seems a bit weak as an afterthought, which was that she was acting quite adamantly about keeping Joe alive, which could indicate that she was a Holder and Joe was Ryuk or vice versa. The problems with this idea are multifold, namely that first the chance of Joe being Ryuk is really quite low - his original idea posited him dying after the second cycle. This would have definitely lost him the game. Unless he anticipated the chaos that followed, which I doubt was possible - I have no idea why we didn't just lynch him as soon as we knew he was in contact with L - it seems unlikely that he would have been Ryuk, it would have risked losing so much. The reverse situation also doesn't make any sense either - why would Ryuk be trying to protect their Holder who is effectively useless to them. If anything, Ryuk would be one of the people voting for Joe and trying to get them lynched so that they wouldn't have to waste an eliminator kill. Of course, Elbe could be seriously double bluffing (she herself pointed this out) as it would be pretty good cover for being Ryuk, but that seems unlikely to me.

[Now for the bit that, for some reason, completely disappeared from my post. I have no idea why. Yay rewriting?]

The way Elbe acts when discussing the Ripple effect in posts 10 and 11 remind me of, well, how I act when trying to deny some kind of accusation, that is, by pretending to be very confused and asking a question about how the accusation really makes any sense. To quote Elbe:

 

Not totally certain how that could imply l'm an eliminator, though?

Hmm. Not sure what he's talking about, then. Unless it's that I messed up how Murderers work? I don't really see how that could be construed as suspicious either, though... Whatever. Not much I can do about it now, anyway.

However, it really was a stupid reason, so this implicating Elbe as an eliminator seems really unlikely.

I've just realised that I am really, really jumping from post to post, but oh well. Anyway.

In post two, Elbe points out all the possible advantages to Joe's plan for a Holder, and then goes on to say that she thinks he's a Civ anyway, with "particularly with the speed that he put up that original plan." being some of the reasoning. To me personally, the speed at which the plan went up seems much more likely to be an eliminator move, an over eager eliminator, though this doesn't seem to hold up if Joe's been playing for as long as I think he's been playing. The again, half an hour is not at all too short a time for a determined eliminator to come up with a good plan for getting them the names of all the police - there's even a possibility Joe started as a Corrupt PO or an eliminator with a similar ability which would have made him immune to the scan. The point I was making, however, was that despite all the possible advantages to being a holder Elbe points out, she still says she thinks Joe is a civ, and I can't really see any reason for that other than Elbe wanting to protect Joe or his plan, perhaps to have it serve her own uses. This could mean either that she is Ryuk and discussed the plan with Joe, or that she is Rem and planned to claim Joe that cycle, and use his supposed innocence to her own ends. On the other hand, I could just be overlooking a gut read, but I think that's unlikely.

A point I'd like to dispute is something Elbe raises in post 17 and again in post 19 and though not something that really implicates her, is something I'd like to comment on. Elbe claims that killing and converting are near enough the same thing, which I disagree with. Converting is much, much worse for us, as there is someone who can influence discussion, can make kills, and who we believe is innocent. It also gains the converter much more information (something Elbe herself raised). Just wanted to put my two cents on that.

Anyway, does that count as an analysis, Elbe? :P

 

I had about 10 pages of raw text + BB code there before I clipped my own post.  I feel really sorry for this forum now.

 

EDIT: This seems a lot shorter than it did when I was writing it....

 

EDIT2:

I just realised I didn't include a conclusion.

So far, it doesn't seem like Elbe is obviously an eliminator, though I'm not leaning towards trusting her any time soon.

 

Edited by AliasSheep
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RippleGylf

RippleGylf

Posted
Posted

Mark

Sorry about my low post volume. This is mostly just a gut vote. Also, what does R and R mean?

Edit: and can someone restate how to do votes on mobile?

 

 

For now, I'll poke Ripple, who hasn't posted recently, I don't think. I may change that to someone I actually think is suspicious later.

 

giphy.gif

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RippleGylf

RippleGylf

Posted
Posted

Uh... nice to know you're alive. What are your thoughts?

 

Well, it is very nice to be alive. I personally am in favor of killing Joe sooner rather than later, but obviously killing Ryuk first would be best. I don't have very many solid suspicions, as per the usual.

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Elbereth

Elbereth

Posted
Posted (edited)

The way Elbe acts when discussing the Ripple effect in posts 10 and 11 remind me of, well, how I act when trying to deny some kind of accusation, that is, by pretending to be very confused and asking a question about how the accusation really makes any sense. To quote Elbe:

However, it really was a stupid reason, so this implicating Elbe as an eliminator seems really unlikely.

Yeah, I was confused because I had no idea what Maill was talking about, and the only things I could think about didn't make much sense. I still don't know, actually. He never told me. I'll have to wait until after the game to ask, I guess.

In post two, Elbe points out all the possible advantages to Joe's plan for a Holder, and then goes on to say that she thinks he's a Civ anyway, with "particularly with the speed that he put up that original plan." being some of the reasoning. To me personally, the speed at which the plan went up seems much more likely to be an eliminator move, an over eager eliminator, though this doesn't seem to hold up if Joe's been playing for as long as I think he's been playing. The again, half an hour is not at all too short a time for a determined eliminator to come up with a good plan for getting them the names of all the police - there's even a possibility Joe started as a Corrupt PO or an eliminator with a similar ability which would have made him immune to the scan. The point I was making, however, was that despite all the possible advantages to being a holder Elbe points out, she still says she thinks Joe is a civ, and I can't really see any reason for that other than Elbe wanting to protect Joe or his plan, perhaps to have it serve her own uses. This could mean either that she is Ryuk and discussed the plan with Joe, or that she is Rem and planned to claim Joe that cycle, and use his supposed innocence to her own ends. On the other hand, I could just be overlooking a gut read, but I think that's unlikely.

My reasoning behind the speed thing was that it sounded like something he'd come up with before the game started. If it were a plan he developed with Rem, I'd think it'd take a bit longer to figure out all the details than that. But that's a good point that I did basically say "Here's all the reasons it'd benefit a Holder! I think he's a civilian!". And... well, yes, the plan does benefit a risky Holder (although as we know now, he was a civilian at that point anyway). But it benefits the village a lot more, in my opinion. And part of my trust for him was just gut, too. Sorry if that was unclear.

A point I'd like to dispute is something Elbe raises in post 17 and again in post 19 and though not something that really implicates her, is something I'd like to comment on. Elbe claims that killing and converting are near enough the same thing, which I disagree with. Converting is much, much worse for us, as there is someone who can influence discussion, can make kills, and who we believe is innocent. It also gains the converter much more information (something Elbe herself raised). Just wanted to put my two cents on that.

This is indeed true. It does balance out a bit more because there's more of a chance of a conversion failing than a kill (or there was. I'm not sure about anymore, with the number of police that have died...). But yes, conversions are bad. That's why I've been advocating for Joe not dying this whole time.

Anyway, does that count as an analysis, Elbe? :P

Yes. Yes, it definitely does. Nice job! :D

Ripple, I apologize. I didn't even check because I was so sure you hadn't posted. Oops...

EDIT: Stupid formatting...

Edited by Elbereth
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AliasSheep

AliasSheep

Posted
Posted (edited)

My reasoning behind the speed thing was that it sounded like something he'd come up with before the game started. If it were a plan he developed with Rem, I'd think it'd take a bit longer to figure out all the details than that. But that's a good point that I did basically say "Here's all the reasons it'd benefit a Holder! I think he's a civilian!". And... well, yes, the plan does benefit a risky Holder (although as we know now, he was a civilian at that point anyway). But it benefits the village a lot more, in my opinion. And part of my trust for him was just gut, too. Sorry if that was unclear.

 

Yeah, I suspected your reasoning was something like this.  I'm on the fence between agreeing and disagreeing - I do think that it seemed likely to be something made up before hand, but 30 minutes is definitely enough time for that plan to form.  There's a possibility that Joe was a Holder at the beginning of the game, though if he wasn't lying about Scythe scanning as guilty, then I think it's true that he is Rem's Holder.

 

This is indeed true. It does balance out a bit more because there's more of a chance of a conversion failing than a kill (or there was. I'm not sure about anymore, with the number of police that have died...). But yes, conversions are bad. That's why I've been advocating for Joe not dying this whole time.

 

I do agree with you on this side - I don't think we should kill Joe either (look I'm all suspicious).

 

Yes. Yes, it definitely does. Nice job!  :D

 

*bow-curtseys*

Edited by AliasSheep
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Elbereth

Elbereth

Posted
Posted

Guys. If we want to avoid a stupid last-minute-vote frenzy again, then we have to actually establish a solid lynch. Before the game gets down to ten minutes left, preferably.

So... Mark. Sorry. But I don’t have anything better, and you never actually explained why you were voting for me or why you thought it was either me or Burnt in the first place.

Anyone mind joining me, so Joe doesn't control again?

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Haelbarde

Haelbarde

Posted
Posted
Vote Tally:

Elb(3): Mark{1}, Joe{1}, Sheep{2}

Hael(0): Arraenae{1} Sheep{1}

Mark(2): Ripple{1}, Elb{2}

Ripple(0): Elb{1}

 

Elbereth(3): Mark, Joe, Sheep

Mark(2): Ripple, Elb

 

Hmmm. Of the two, I'd probably vote on Mark, as I don't have a good read on him, but I'd lean towards Elb being village. 

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Arrae

Arrae

Posted
Posted

Mark. I feel like I'm bandwagoning, but Elbereth has discussed a lot more than Mark (as El said he never explained why Burnt or El had to be a Shinigami).

STORMING AUTOCORRECT STOP CHANGING ELB TO ROB ARRRGH

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