Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[queensteph she/her]

Great job Mistborn! We will avenge you Adavantos!! This doesn't look too good for me since Araris was sticking up for me, but hopefully the Kandra scanned me and found that I am loyal! (Assuming the Kandra is loyal)

[Clanky he/him]

Ok cool! I was actually right about one of my suspicions. It's nice to have a traitor who posted enough to do some analysis on. Here are a few initial thoughts on Araris  posts:

 

1. He brought up the possibility of killing one of the people the kandra scanned to test the kandras alignment. This makes me even more certain that the kandra actually is good.
2. As queesnsteph pointed out he was defending her. There wasn't really any reasons behind his defence of her besides her not doing anything suspicious
3. He focused a lot on the inactive players in his posts.
4. He doesn't want us to lynch based on role distributions. Maybe this means that we should be lynching our last feruchemist then? 
5. Considered Alfa to be soft confirmed because of his scan on STINK being correct. I would normally look at Alfa as mre suspicious for this but I doubt the traitors would get two hemalurgists. Unless they were given hemalurgists instead of uninvested players as a way to confuse us? 
6. He pushed for the coinshot on Cow who we now know is good. So perhaps we can look for other people who wanted to coinshot cow since we know the eliminators were for it?
7. "If we assume that there are 7 eliminators, then 2 uninvested and a hemalurgist seems pretty balanced. But that seems a little boring. In my experience team evil tends to have more roles and less people, which gives them more room for strategy and less of error. Although, having 2 uninvested players with the forger role might make a 7 person team a little overpowered, though fortunately we don't have to deal with that. The game could practically have ended upon the death of a mistborn if there was still an evil forger." His thoughts on traitor role distribution. Take from this what you will but I'm not sure what to make of it yet. 

That's all I've got for now. Nothing groundbreaking but I had some time so I thought I would share. I won't be posting a vote until I do a more thorough analysis on Araris and all his interactions.

[Biggoron he/him]

Obligatory "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!1!2!!". Cuz Ada's gone. We weep for you, we really do. ;(
But also I'm more worried about there not being any food served. I don't wanna get my own food!
(and my suspectometer was at like, 5 or 6 for Araris...so...wow.)
Ok, but yeah! @phat!! I think you're evil. Mostly just for trying to pry my role from me, even though you didn't try that hard. But I think Lopen is more evil-er. Since almost everything he's said has struck me as a bit...off? But, again, that's mostly my gut talking. I have no real proof.
So convince me otherwise, brother!

[Alvron he/him]

So did the kandra find anything out last night?

Lopen was scanned and found to be loyal.

 

However we have no way of knowing if it's true due to lingering doubt as to the Kandras allegiance.  It is the same with the others that have been scanned.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I think the HI was talking about the current scan, Alv.

 

Great work Mistborn! One more down, only a few left now. I'd say either 2 or 3. My suspicions as of right now:

1. Biggoron- I'm wondering if you wouldn't mind explaining something about yourself so we can talk about it in the open. I'm suspicious of you for your "suspicion" of Wilson, and now you're "suspicion" against Araris, and that you've been playing the "newbie card" quite a lot. Also add to that that you just voted for me, and I'm a lot more suspicious of you now than I was before this Turn.

2. Phattemer- Now before anyone goes and says my top two suspicions are those who have voted on me, I would like to say that I have already voiced concerns about these two earlier, in PM's and even a little in thread as well. Phat, with Biggoron saying that stuff about you prodding him for his role, and my suspicion of him, it makes me less suspicious of you. However, you voting for me does make me suspicious of you.

3. Alfa- Claimed Hemalurgist. Also claimed to be Forged into a Kandra on N2, the same night that STINK was Forged. He then said he scanned BB with his first scan, but BB was killed that night so it was wasted. His next scan was on STINK and came up Loyal. STINK was killed shortly thereafter by a Mistborn. Like I said earlier, if STINK had been offed by the Traitors I would have been suspicious that his scan on STINK was true just to make us trust him a little. As it stands though, I'm inclined to think that both Mistborn are Loyal, so I am unsure about Alfa. Which is why I want him scanned.

4. Elkanah- lack of information on him makes me suspicious of him. Pretty much the only thing I've got about him. I'll look through his posts to try to get a better read on him. Elkanah, it would help if you could try to add some more opinions on more players. Anything really. Gut feelings, paranoid theories, it's all helpful to know, imo.

 

I believe the remaining Traitors are in this group. I'm not sure about that, but it's my opinion. 

 

@Biggoron, as for convincing you I am Loyal, well, I think you should look over everything I've said and done up until this point and try to figure it out yourself if you have yet to do so. I've been scanned as Loyal, and have been suspicious of Araris for a while now. If anyone has any questions, go right ahead. I'm roleless as you all probably know.

[Alvron he/him]

I think the HI was talking about the current scan, Alv.

I know.   Just like the HI knows full well that asking that early will not help as they will still have to wait until plenty of people have posted to insure that any code used isn't easily picked up.  With the lessening numbers it may be better if the Kandra doesn't use the code phase at all as the eliminators have probably narrowed it down to a handful of players and there is no reason to make it any easier.

[Elbereth she/her]

I don't really have much to say except corrections/clarifications and people I don't think are suspicious. I'm partly posting just so that Alvron can post the scan results sooner.

Ok cool! I was actually right about one of my suspicions. It's nice to have a traitor who posted enough to do some analysis on. Here are a few initial thoughts on Araris  posts:

 

1. [*]He pushed for

the coinshot on Cow who we now know is good. So perhaps we can look for other people who wanted to coinshot cow since we know the eliminators were for it?  

Cow was bad, right? Or am I severely misremembering things?

Obligatory "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!1!2!!". Cuz Ada's gone. We weep for you, we really do. ;(

  

Well, Adavantos said he was sharing all of his information with his Mistborn, right? So he or she will have his information, at least. Hopefully.

I know.   Just like the HI knows full well that asking that early will not help as they will still have to wait until plenty of people have posted to insure that any code used isn't easily picked up.  With the lessening numbers it may be better if the Kandra doesn't use the code phase at all as the eliminators have probably narrowed it down to a handful of players and there is no reason to make it any easier.

A code phase makes me think of morse code with phasers. I'm not sure how well that would work.

Other than that, I don't have much. My gut says that steph is innocent. Right now, basically everyone else is basically hovering in the middle.

Also, how many Hemalurgists did Hellscythe say he had contact with at the beginning? Because I think it was three, and three have died. In fact, the last one was a Hemalurgist, so we might need to go back to when Stink died and look at his posts from there. Or am I mixing something up?

[Clanky he/him]

Cow was bad, right? Or am I severely misremembering things?

  

Nope your remembering things fine. Cow was bad. Sometimes my mind and hands don't want to say the same thing and stuff like that happens.

[Arrae]

I never knew that Adavantos was that desperate for food.

@Elby Cow was an evil inactive.

Araris put a vote on BB day one. That means that he wasn't above lynching his own Forger teammate, which is something that we should take into consideration when analyzing his posts.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Response to Clanky's 7 point post.

 

1. I do agree that it is most likely the Kandra is Loyal.

2. Since I am of the opinion Steph is Loyal, I think it was a ploy to try to gain trust if/when she is cleared by the Kandra. If she does turn out to be a Traitor though, then obviously that's why he said what he did.

3. This is something I'm definitely gonna look over. I even mentioned in my summary of his posts how often he went for inactives, and how we might be able to soft-clear those who were inactive at the times he mentions killing inactives. Obviously, with him being a supporter of The Cow's death, it won't be very good evidence for someone, but I think it's worth looking into.

4. I feel like this is just his honest opinion about how the game should be played. I'm not sure though, so it could be worth thinking about. In my PM with him(I made one with him last night, since I figured if I was gonna advocate he die, I should try to learn more about him regardless of his alignment.), he mentioned how he thought "killing the Kandra would be killing based off of roles, and if we went to the extreme with that tactic, Alfa and Steph would already be dead, I think." I'm not sure why he would include Alfa like that since he's a Hemalurgist and we don't want to kill them, so it's really the opposite case for Alfa. He's being protected because of his role.

5. Alfa could just be lying about his role. I don't think we've ever confirmed anything about him.

6. Well, Clanky, you were the only other person to actually Mistborn vote for Cow actually. So I'm not sure if you want to go down that road. 

7. I have been thinking about possible role distributions with the knowledge that I have(from dead and living players roles). I was thinking about the possibilities of the Traitors only having 6 players on their team and what that team would be made of. So far we know of these 4: Wilson(Voidbringer), BB(Forger), The Cow(Uninvested), Araris(Hemalurgist), ???(BioChromancer). That's 4 roles and 1 uninvested. The Hema is pretty much a no-role as well though, so you could say 3 roles and 2 roleless, with 1 or 2 unknowns. If they only have 1 more player I would think it would be one with a role. With my opinion that both Mistborn are likely good, both Kandra(Shallan and ???) are good, and that we had 2 BioChromancers to start, I think it's possible that the Traitors have another Voidbringer. We have more kills available to us then they do, and BioChromancers could only block 2 of the Traitors role that we know of(Voidbringer and Forger, because Bio's can't block other Bio's), although Wyrm might have given us the Bio's in case the Traitors got a Mistborn or Kandra or something. This is all just theorizing, but I think it's possible that the Traitors do have another Voidbringer.

 

I'm going to put my vote on Biggoron now because of the reasons I mentioned in my last post.

 

Edit: Something I wanted to mention is that I think we should try to decide on a lynch a little earlier than we have been doing. It gives that person a chance to actually defend themselves, and I think it can give us more information that way as well. There has been too many last minute(or in this case last hour, but it's not a lot of time regardless) lynches this game. First Shallan(Loyal), Kipper last Cycle(Loyal), Bort was kinda late as well(Loyal), and PK well, Kipper was just saving himself which I do't really blame him for doing, but it seems like that Day was a bit of a waste because of how much no-voting went on. If we could actually get some votes, and threaten players with death a little more effectively, I think it would up our chances of winning.

 

Edit 2: @Clanky, To answer a question in our PM, it was the second option.

 

Edit 3: removed vote

Edited December 5, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[Clanky he/him]

 

6. Well, Clanky, you were the only other person to actually Mistborn vote for Cow actually. So I'm not sure if you want to go down that road. 

 

    Well I guess the answer is clear then. I must be a traitor! I never knew that I was but since my logic is infallible then I must be!

 

 

But actually I probably should've looked more into that I suppose. 

[Hellscythe he/him]

At this point with the amount of eliminators we have lynched I'd be ok with the Kandra coming out into the open and saying someone is for sure bad. At that point we can then protect the Kandra, get another scan tomorrow, and if the eliminators feel like wasting an attack because they don't think they will be protected that's all them.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

The only problem with that Hellscythe, is that the Traitors have a BioChromancer(I think it's safe to assume this), so they can just block the Kandra every time and it becomes a useless role.

 

If we thought Steph was the Traitor BioChromancer, then I guess it wouldn't matter if the Kandra revealed, but Steph has been confirmed to be a Feruchemist, so it is not worth it, imo.

[queensteph she/her]

I don't think that Biggoron is an eliminator, I don't see why they would have the role he has 

(assuming he didn't lie about what his role was PM with me)

 

I'm starting to distrust Lopen because of his assurance of my alignment.

He seems very sure that I'm loyal, but there isn't really any solid proof of me being so.

Either he just thinks I'm good because he trusts himself that much, or he's a traitor and already knows that I'm good.

I mean, I'm glad you have so much faith in me bro, but it doesn't really make sense.

I doubt that the Eliminator's would have another no-role, otherwise I'd be voting on you.

 

I'm suspicious of Orlok and Phatt as well.

Also, I feel like Alvron himself might be the Kandra. I don't know whether or not he's trustworthy,

but I kind of am leaning towards the Kandra being evil, so if my theory about Alvron being the Kandra is correct

then I wouldn't feel hesitant to put my vote on him.

 

P.S Is anyone else knowingly in contact with the Kandra?

If so please disprove my theory, and I will take my vote off of Alv.

I sincerely hope that the Kandra is loyal, but I have my doubts.

[Biggoron he/him]

1. Biggoron- I'm wondering if you wouldn't mind explaining something about yourself so we can talk about it in the open. I'm suspicious of you for your "suspicion" of Wilson, and now you're "suspicion" against Araris, and that you've been playing the "newbie card" quite a lot. Also add to that that you just voted for me, and I'm a lot more suspicious of you now than I was before this Turn.

 

 

@Biggoron, as for convincing you I am Loyal, well, I think you should look over everything I've said and done up until this point and try to figure it out yourself if you have yet to do so. I've been scanned as Loyal, and have been suspicious of Araris for a while now. If anyone has any questions, go right ahead. I'm roleless as you all probably know.

Dude.

Wilson was the most suspicious person ever. Everything she said seeped evil. And when I said Araris was like a 5 or 6 on the suspectometer, I meant that as a low rating. I DIDN'T suspect him very much. Wilson was a 9 or 10, and you are about an 8. So I was surprised to find out he was bad. And the "newbie card"? What? I think I've said like two things about that? And that's probably because I'm a newbie?? lol

I voted for you because you "sound" almost the same as Wilson did in almost everything you say. But dang, you were scanned as Loyal? I guess I really did miss that. If you wanna like, show me when that happened or whatever...that'd be really cool. Or I guess I could stop being a lazy buttock, and do it myself...but UUUUUUUUUUUGH. Maybe I will.   

As for questions, did you have any solid reasons for suspecting Araris? Anything they said, specifically? And whose your biggest suspect now?

[Hellscythe he/him]

Thought about it a bit with myself and Bridge Boy has 0 reason to give Alfa the role of Kandra unless he's his Traitor buddy with a no-ability role like hemalurgist. He actually has the opposite incentive since giving the inno team a kandra is generally a bad thing for the traitor team.

 

The only thing that bothers is me is why did Alfa even claim Kandra at all if both him and Bridge Boy were traitors?

[Alvron he/him]

Also, I feel like Alvron himself might be the Kandra. I don't know whether or not he's trustworthy,

but I kind of am leaning towards the Kandra being evil, so if my theory about Alvron being the Kandra is correct

then I wouldn't feel hesitant to put my vote on him.

 

P.S Is anyone else knowingly in contact with the Kandra?

If so please disprove my theory, and I will take my vote off of Alv.

I sincerely hope that the Kandra is loyal, but I have my doubts.

Obviously I'm not going to confirm or deny that I may or may not be the Kandra.  I can however say that I know of several others that are aware of who the Kandra is.  And no, I'm not going to tell you who they are either.

 

Thought about it a bit with myself and Bridge Boy has 0 reason to give Alfa the role of Kandra unless he's his Traitor buddy with a no-ability role like hemalurgist. He actually has the opposite incentive since giving the inno team a kandra is generally a bad thing for the traitor team.

 

The only thing that bothers is me is why did Alfa even claim Kandra at all if both him and Bridge Boy were traitors?

Stink claimed that he was Forged by BB on N2 not Alfa.  If true, which seeing as Stink was loyal I see no reason why not, then Polking was the one to Forge Alfa into a Kandra.

[Elbereth she/her]

Nope your remembering things fine. Cow was bad. Sometimes my mind and hands don't want to say the same thing and stuff like that happens.

Glad that's cleared up.

Thought about it a bit with myself and Bridge Boy has 0 reason to give Alfa the role of Kandra unless he's his Traitor buddy with a no-ability role like hemalurgist. He actually has the opposite incentive since giving the inno team a kandra is generally a bad thing for the traitor team.

The only thing that bothers is me is why did Alfa even claim Kandra at all if both him and Bridge Boy were traitors?

I can only think of one reason if Alfa's loyal, and that's that someone discovered that he was the last loyal Hemalurgist (that they knew of, at least), and wanted to convert the HI. I'm not sure how plausible this is, though.

EDIT: Ninja'd by Alvron. Ignore this last bit, then.

Edited December 4, 2015 by Ookla the Star-Goddess

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Dude.

Wilson was the most suspicious person ever. Everything she said seeped evil. And when I said Araris was like a 5 or 6 on the suspectometer, I meant that as a low rating. I DIDN'T suspect him very much. Wilson was a 9 or 10, and you are about an 8. So I was surprised to find out he was bad. And the "newbie card"? What? I think I've said like two things about that? And that's probably because I'm a newbie?? lol

I voted for you because you "sound" almost the same as Wilson did in almost everything you say. But dang, you were scanned as Loyal? I guess I really did miss that. If you wanna like, show me when that happened or whatever...that'd be really cool. Or I guess I could stop being a lazy buttock, and do it myself...but UUUUUUUUUUUGH. Maybe I will.   

As for questions, did you have any solid reasons for suspecting Araris? Anything they said, specifically? And whose your biggest suspect now?

 

Well that's part of the reason I'm suspicious of you. I wasn't really super suspicious of Wilson, so it surprised me when you were like "she's soooo supicious!" It could be that I'm just ashamed that so many people were suspicious of her, but I wasn't very much.   The thing about Araris, well, it's just that you never said anything before he was killed. If you were suspicious of him, even a little, why not say something? 

 

Alvron just said I was scanned as Loyal in this thread actually, so..............yeah.

 

My suspicions of Araris weren't that solid really, it was just my gut feelings and the product of elimination. By talking with others and getting to trust them some, he was left on my list of people who were slightly suspicious. Looking back on his posts, he seemed the most likely to be a Traitor. I wasn't sure about him, but I haven't ever been 100% sure about someone based off of my gut and analyzing. I think I was also affected by those who I thought were Loyal(Kas and Ada), and they stated some suspicion of him earlier, which caused me to watch him a little closer than I might have.

 

I've already stated my suspicions in my earlier post. I guess if I had to pick my biggest suspect, it might be Alfa. He's been practically inactive this entire game, for no apparent reason. I asked him about it and he just said he was busy, so I'm not sure what to do about that. I'm not voting on him because he's a Hemalurgist, and there is a chance he's Loyal(however small it may seem). Really though, you, Phatt, Elkanah and Alfa are all pretty close in my suspicions list.

 

Who is your biggest suspect? One of the reasons I'm suspicious of you is that you haven't given very many opinions about players, which could be you trying not to connect to your fellow Traitors. You said earlier that you were gonna try to list your top 3 suspects. I'd very much like to hear them.

 

Thought about it a bit with myself and Bridge Boy has 0 reason to give Alfa the role of Kandra unless he's his Traitor buddy with a no-ability role like hemalurgist. He actually has the opposite incentive since giving the inno team a kandra is generally a bad thing for the traitor team.

 

The only thing that bothers is me is why did Alfa even claim Kandra at all if both him and Bridge Boy were traitors?

 

I'm just gonna try to lay out the Alfa situation so everyone understands what is going on with him.

 

1. Alfa claimed Hemalurgist to the HI.

2. Alfa claimed on N4 in a group PM that he was forged into a Kandra and had scanned BB the night he died(N3). He said he had one more scan left which meant he was forged on N2 if he was telling the truth.

3. BB forged STINK into a Hemalurgist on N2(according to STINK and Ada, and since both of them were Loyal, there was no reason to lie.). So if Alfa was telling the truth about being forged, he would have to have been forged by Polkinghorn( a different Forger than BB at least, but it seems that there are no more Forgers, so it must have been polking if he's telling the truth). My question about this, what reason did polking have for forging Alfa into a Kandra? HI, were you in contact with polking and mention Alfa in any way?

4. Alfa was asked to scan STINK(by Ada I believe?), and he did so on N4. The results were Loyal(correct results, btw). STINK was then killed on N5 by a Mistborn and revealed Loyal.

 

Another question is one that has been brought up by Hellscythe. Why would Alfa claim to be a Forged Kandra? Was he just trying to gain our trust? If I could go back to that night, I would ask that Hellscythe scan him to see if he was telling the truth about being forged. I kinda thought polking was inactive that Cycle, since he was Mistborn killed the Turn that he supposedly forged Alfa. I'm going to go back and check N2 again to see if polking ever posted or any type of reason as to why he would forge Alfa that night. I'll post my findings once I'm done.

 

Edit: Okay, finished reading N2(the Night Turn where polking was Mistborn killed, and Alfa was "supposedly" forged into a Kandra). Alfa and polking are never mentioned the entire turn, and neither of them posted. After the Night was over(so, D3 thread), Ada says that the Mistborn he was in contact with had decided to go after inactives. He also says that he suggested polking to them because of that. Since polking was killed because of inactivity, it makes me that much more suspicious of Alfa, who claims to have been forged on a Night when the Traitor forger was busy, and the one loyal forger we know of was apparently inactive. Obviously, we can't know if polking ever got online on that Turn or not, but it seems fishy to me. What do you guys think?

Edited December 4, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

I spent some time looking into N2 concerning polking and checked to see if he was active anywhere else on the forums at that time.

He has one post 11 November in the mr9

2x 13 nov mr9

14 nov mr9 and heirs to the final empire

N2 was the 11 and 12th of November i think (bear in mind the dates might be different for other people because timezones are weird and I really need to sleep cause its 1:30am. )

So that would mean he was online around N2, but just didnt show up here, so I personally think it's plausible that he could have forged Alfa before he died. I'm not saying that I necessarily trust Alfa, but that the whole forgery buisines could be entirely legit.

I'm tired. Goodnight.

[Hellscythe he/him]

Ok I understand the situation with Alfa. I'd like to hear what the kandra or kandra proxy has to say or not say about steph.

[Arrae]

A few events this weekend got canceled today, so it turns out I have much more time than expected, yay!

 

I've been going through D1 to see if Biggoron posts his suspicions of anybody anywhere. Here are some interesting posts I've found. It's actually a lot easier to tell what the traitors are doing when you already know who they are. 

 

What people actually posted is in quotes. Some posts have been paraphrased to avoid formatting issues (I don't know what happens if you paste a spoiler/quote into google docs and then copy and paste it out, and this is not something I want to experiment with).

 

Wilson “Right now, I currently have my eye on both Bridge Boy and Alvron. Alv, because before the game started, he mentioned that he thought the old eliminators would be killed swiftly this game, and I can't help but wonder if his vote on the captain was to make people think he wasn't an eliminator because obviously he wouldn't cast a vote like that right off the bat if he were. And Bridge Boy because he said that Alv's vote heaps huge amounts of suspicion on him, when really it's just a bit. Seems like an over-exaggeration. Not necessarily one inherent to an eliminator, but it's still suspicious.”

Wilson doesn't place a vote on either of them.

 

 

The Cow “Cor -- Alvron. I do not understand how anything he has done is suspicious. Would someone explain to me, exactly, what was suspicious?”

 

 

Alvron “I am under no illusions.  I fully expect to be either killed or scanned within the first two cycles.  Having said that, hopefully the eliminators will leave me alone hoping that me surviving will make me suspicious enough for them to try and have me lynched when one of theirs is up for the chop.  And having said that all bets are now off.

Also, I would've done that vote no matter what side I was on.  It was too good an opportunity to pass up.”

White text in brown here.

 

 

Wilson “Oh, I didn't mean to say that I think he would only do that from an eliminator perspective. He'd totally do it as a villager as well. But as he said, he'd do it regardless of alignment. To be completely honest, I think he's probably good. But then, I was leaning that direction in 15a, and.....he wasn't, so.... I'm not willing to write off my paranoia at this point. And I can be highly paranoid when it comes to Alv. ”

Talking about BB here.

 

 

Araris “Hello everyone, I am here, and reading the thread. Anyways, I don't get too much from the Alvron thingy; as Wilson pointed out it was completely pointless. Likewise, I think that people that voted for Alvron were just joking along or didn't realize the rule change from last game. I'll be back later in the cycle and try to say some more.”

 

 

Wilson “My reasons:

The eliminators likely still have a Forger. They did last time, and the role is nerfed so it's even more likely that they have one. What's to stop them from Forging the Hemalurgists to a different role to get the HI to subvert? So while the HI would like Elantrians to protect the Hemalurgists, if the Hemalurgist is forged into something else, that protection isn't going to stop that forgery. They'll still lose the Hemalurgist (albeit temporarily) and if that Hemalurgist is the last one, the HI will subvert and there's nothing that can be done about it.

 

There are a lot of things that can be done that we cannot prevent without our own forgers forging those roles and hoping to win over the eliminator forger, while at the same time, not knowing who they're stamping and what role they're costing the village for 2 cycles. I'm not going to go into all the things the eliminators could do to make the HI subvert regardless of our preparations because this is the thread and I don't particularly like giving eliminators strategy ideas.”

And of course they have a Forger, it's BB!

 

 

The Cow posts a ton of analysis, with the conclusion that Adavantos is evil.

I am not copying and pasting spoilers onto here, so it's been paraphrased.

 

 

Biggoron posts to clarify things.

Biggoron posts again to ask for a detailed list of votes showing retracted votes and current votes.

Notably, no mention of his suspicions, whether they are on Wilson, Araris, Lopen, or anybody else.

 

 

Araris “Ok, I'm going to place my vote now. I'm not too sure what is up with Adavantos, but I would like to hear more from Bridge Boyabout that vote. Yeah, it is definitely counting toward something, and I am all for a day one lynch, but we still have some time to discuss at this point.

 

In response to Adavantos, this is both SE and a LG. So, there is a bit of an expectation to be cutthroat, and people have 48 hours to get on to see the thread. Now, if we lynch an inactive that honestly forgot or had an emergency that prevented them from posting, I might be less likely to endorse lynching one of them one cycle one at a future date. I almost did that in MR whatever that is running right now. But in this day and age, 48 hours is an awful lot of time to hop on a phone or use a computer to post something like: I'm super busy and will contribute more later. People on here respect that sort of thing, it happens to all of us. And if we lynch someone who just forgot, well, next game they will be less likely to forget. It doesn't pay to encourage inactivity by protecting those people from the lynch.

 

I said all this, but my vote isn't on an inactive player because I felt like I had a better option, at least for drawing out info. I'll hopefully be back one in around 3 hours to reconsider where to put my vote.”

Araris places a vote on BB and calls to lynch an inactive.

 

 

Wilson “It doesn't have to be between Bridge Boy and Adavantos. I rather think Adavantos is good, and I'm inclined to agree with whoever said that Bridge Boy wouldn't be making these mistakes if he were evil. He's been evil enough to know better. I would suggest the kandra scan both of them to make sure about their alignments.

 

I'm going to vote for Shallan. Her post just now strikes me as off similarly to how Stink's from 15a struck me as off--it's saying stuff, but not really saying anything. It's mostly just repeating what's already been said, and while she gives ideas for what each role should do, it's basic stuff that the roles were probably already going to do. So even that isn't bringing anything new. That's the most obvious area for an eliminator to skate by in: posting a little bit and seeming to be contributing but not actually contributing anything. So my vote's there.”

Wilson starts the bandwagon on Shallan.

 

 

Alfa “Actually, I want to speak in Shallan's defense - which does not mean that she is innocent. She can be guilty as anybody else, and I hope you don't get this post for confirmation I am in the trator team if after her dead it would be discovered she is a traiotr. Of course her post doesn't tell very much, but it is still not exactly "nothing", and there are actual some good (Elantrian)  and some bad adwises in it (for example I think Mistborn shall kill on their own suspicion and not simply the almost-lynched - their choice is as good as anybody elses). Also it's relatively difficult to say something actually relevant in cycle 1, on a non "everpresent" topic like the HI-loyality problem.

 

NOTE: While I am writing this I got ninja'd multiple times and do not know what is standing in the 4 posts above yet.

 

 

EDIT: One of the posts was that of the turnover.”

Alfa defends Shallan but is ninja'd by the turnover. It's too late to save her.

 

 

This concludes D1.

 

Someone please analyze this wall of text, or at least tell me if it is useful or not.

 

EDIT: I think it's very likely that the traitors already know who the kandra is, because they were roleblocked multiple times. If the kandra does reveal, the Elantrian can always protect them.

 

Then again, is it necessary for us to know Steph's alignment on this day? If Steph is loyal, I don't think there is much that can be gained/ not gained by knowing it now rather than later.

Edited December 4, 2015 by Arraenae

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Okay, I was looking back through polking's posts like Burnt did, and found that he didn't actually ever post anywhere on the forums during the time period of N2.

 

Night 2 timeframe(for me): November 10th, 2:00 PM - November 12th, 2:00 PM.

 

polkings post on November 10th was at 12:02 PM on the MR9 game thread-This post is 2 hours before the N2 thread was put up.

polkings next post was on November 12th, 10:32 PM on the MR9 game thread-This post is about 8 hours after N2 was over and he was dead.

 

So he never posted on the 17th Shard during that time. I don't think that necessarily means he wasn't ever online during that time, just that we can't tell if he was or not. If anyone had a PM with him(and he responded that Night), please tell us. I actually did make a PM with him during N2 to which he never responded. I would have mentioned it earlier, but I forgot about it since he died and it was just one of my many PM's I had made that Night. The last time he looked at it was on November 21st(9 days after N2 was over). He may have looked at it at an earlier time, but there's no way to know if he did or didn't.

 

I remember Araris talking about Alfa a little and how he was glad we weren't playing like there were safe roles or something, and that he approves of the suspicion of Alfa, but doesn't vote for him because he claimed Hemalurgist. I'm gonna go look at that post and see if I can learn anything from it.

 

Edit: Summary of Araris' posts about Alfa.

 

1st post- He says he supports suspicion of Alfa, and agrees that we can't assume he is loyal. He says we probably shouldn't lynch him, although it might tell us if the HI has turned. States that we might want to wait and scan him, because him being alive would be fairly beneficial(because a loyal Hema means a loyal HI). He slightly downplays that idea though, by putting in parentheses, "although this isn't quite as true since Alfa has been fairly quiet."

2nd post- States that it's possible Alfa didn't realize his forged powers(kandra in this case) had run out. Which he is saying to mean that maybe Alfa was forged on N1 instead of N2.

3rd post- Says that he was pretty excited when players were voting for Alfa because that meant there was no mentality of safe roles. (I do agree with him on that, but he's not really saying if he thinks Alfa is suspicious or not.) He then goes on to talk about whether we can discern whether there is a Traitor feruchemist or not based off of Elkanah's vote tally which stated that Bort and Alfa were tied for the lynch when in reality, there were a few more votes on Bort than there were on Alfa. Araris then says that the Kandra should probably scan Alfa because he claimed Hemalurgist and because of the feruchemist thing. (Hopefully that all made sense. Anyway, I'm not sure what to make of Araris asking for Alfa to be scanned. It could mean Alfa is loyal, or it could mean Araris was hoping we'd go with a different target, or maybe Araris was just trying to get some village trust by asking for a scan on one of his fellows. I'm not really sure.)

4th post- In Araris' accusations against PK, he states that PK is suspicious because he put a second vote on Alfa, who we have soft-confirmed. 

5th post- He explains to me why Alfa is soft-confirmed good. His explanation: "Alfa scanned STINK as good, we killed STINK, so we know he was telling the truth. So basically we failed to catch him in a lie." 

 

That's about all he says about Alfa. Could someone tell me how to quote a post that's in a locked thread? Is that even possible? It would be nice to get the actual posts rather than me shortening them, so you guys can look them over yourselves.

Edited December 5, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[Hellscythe he/him]

There's also the possibility of an either team, third forger.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Yeah, I guess. But if there's another one on the Traitor team, I would think that also points to Alfa being a Traitor. If there was another loyal one, I think we would have heard about them by now. Just to make sure though we should check with everyone. There has been 4 Nights since BB's death. 4 times someone could have been forged. We don't have any completely inactives, so that's can't be the reason I don't think.

 

Is anyone in contact with a Forger, or has anyone been forged anytime between N4 and N7?

 

Edit: Vote tally

 

Lopen(2): Phattemer, Biggoron

Biggoron(1): Lopen

Steph(1): Hellscythe

Alvron(1): Steph

Alfa(0): Hellscythe

Edited December 5, 2015 by TheMightyLopen