Long Game 15: ...The Shards Themselves...

[Guest]

He wasn't online, and it seemed that everyone overlooked the fact that a Feruchemis (me, in this case) could, in fact, control the vote, provided they hadn't voted already. I didn't want to die, so I changed the vote.

[Clanky he/him]

He wasn't online, and it seemed that everyone overlooked the fact that a Feruchemis (me, in this case) could, in fact, control the vote, provided they hadn't voted already. I didn't want to die, so I changed the vote.

 

I changed my vote to try and stop that but unfortunately Araris still had a vote on PK you could use. Which means that if kipper ends up being evil then I will have to take a long look at Araris.

Edited November 28, 2015 by Ookla the Cranky

[queensteph she/her]

Sorry for not posting again in the last cycle! (Busy with the holiday) mainly my vote on Kipper was because of his PM (previously mentioned) because he was trying to make me reveal Lopen's role, and said him and Lopen had made a bet that Kip could or couldn't make me spill. Anywho, I asked Lopen if Kipper knew his role and he said no, so when Kipper had told me that he DID know Lopen's role I thought Kipper was being shady. When he told me about their wager that I'd tell him then I asked Lopen to see if it was true, but he didn't get on until the night had ended. So I mostly wanted them to clarify in thread for me so I placed the vote. But it's been cleared up now since Lopen confirmed that they were just messing with me. I'm still going to keep my eye on Kipper though, with there having been at least 3(?) Feruchemists, according to Ada, then it seems likely one of them is probably an eliminator, and now that we know PK was loyal the choices are narrowed

[Araris Valerian he/him]

So why don't we go ahead and scan Kipper tonight. That way we don't clear out all the feruchemists looking for a traitor. (although they aren't super helpful unless the game runs long and the team counts are too close for comfort)

 

I'm not too sure what I think about the lynch. What Kipper did makes sense coming from either team since he could ensure that a lynch actually happened. But only 5 people voted... There are 8 people on the list Ada gave us, just for starters. All I did was recognize that PK was someone that had caught my attention earlier and that he fit into the suspected role distribution.

 

Part of this is definitely from Thanksgiving being now, I know that I had no internet access from this morning until now. But in 19 people we should have had at least ~10 votes in my opinion.

 

But really people, you could have voted for someone on Ada's list, or if you felt brave you could pick somebody not on the list.

 

And once again I'm going to say coinshot Cow, since he is inactive (and happens to be on that list I keep mentioning)

[Arraenae]

I'm still not convinced that Kipper is innocent. In fact, I'm even more convinced that Kipper is a traitor now, because of the vote swap. I understand wanting to live, but... changing the vote to stay alive seems like something a traitor would do.

 

So, Mr. (Ms? Mrs?) Mistborn, if you're still taking these votes, can you kill Kipper for me?

 

EDIT: retracted vote for possible confirmation bias.

Edited November 28, 2015 by Arraenae

[Guest]

Sorry for not posting again in the last cycle! (Busy with the holiday) mainly my vote on Kipper was because of his PM (previously mentioned) because he was trying to make me reveal Lopen's role, and said him and Lopen had made a bet that Kip could or couldn't make me spill. Anywho, I asked Lopen if Kipper knew his role and he said no, so when Kipper had told me that he DID know Lopen's role I thought Kipper was being shady. When he told me about their wager that I'd tell him then I asked Lopen to see if it was true, but he didn't get on until the night had ended. So I mostly wanted them to clarify in thread for me so I placed the vote. But it's been cleared up now since Lopen confirmed that they were just messing with me. I'm still going to keep my eye on Kipper though, with there having been at least 3(?) Feruchemists, according to Ada, then it seems likely one of them is probably an eliminator, and now that we know PK was loyal the choices are narrowed

Yeah, we had a bet that I couldn't get you to reveal his role. So I told you I did know his role, and he had asked me to find out if you would lie about it or not. Unfortunately, it appears that he ruined the joke.

Also, I knew that PK was a Feruchemist. I know the other as well.  

I'm still not convinced that Kipper is innocent. In fact, I'm even more convinced that Kipper is a traitor now, because of the vote swap. I understand wanting to live, but... changing the vote to stay alive seems like something a traitor would do.

 

So, Mr. (Ms? Mrs?) Mistborn, if you're still taking these votes, can you kill Kipper for me?

And here we see confirmation bias...

Mistborn, if you truly believe that I'm suspicious, by all means, kill me. But don't let unconnected incidents be wrongly connected in your mind. And remember that my role isn't all that useful now that people know it, so if you suspect someone else, it might be a better choice to kill them.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Yeah, we had a bet that I couldn't get you to reveal his role. So I told you I did know his role, and he had asked me to find out if you would lie about it or not. Unfortunately, it appears that he ruined the joke.

 

Haha, yeah................sorry about that.   To be fair, you didn't tell me how you were going to go about it.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Ok, first: An apology.

I have had a really, really busy, fairly awful week, and haven't been able to play either this or QF11 at all really.

I would very much appreciate it if someone could send me a PM bringing me up to speed on what's happened since I last posted?

I shall do my very best to be online for the rest of this game - my coursework draft is due on Monday, but I have time to complete it this weekend, and then a more relaxed time altering it to be the final draft for the next few weeks following this.

[Arraenae]

And here we see confirmation bias...

Mistborn, if you truly believe that I'm suspicious, by all means, kill me. But don't let unconnected incidents be wrongly connected in your mind. And remember that my role isn't all that useful now that people know it, so if you suspect someone else, it might be a better choice to kill them.

 

Alright. Alternate hypothesis: Kipper is loyal.

 

The vote on Shallan came a few minutes after Wilson's vote, so Kipper probably was ninja'd by Wilson. If he wanted to be sneaky about lynching Shallan, he could just not vote and Feruchemically place a vote on Shallan. Voting for Shallan in thread placed suspicion on him, and why would a traitor want to attract suspicion?

 

Kipper went after Wilson before she revealed herself as a traitor. This placed attention on both of them, and why would traitors want attention?

 

It's very possible to tunnel on Kipper when he is innocent. (MR9 Deathcluth and Kipper, anybody?) It's happened before, and it can happen again.

 

Changing the vote to live is just something you do to survive. It's better to keep yourself (a confirmed loyal) alive than someone else (unconfirmed and a possible traitor) alive. After all, people in SE don't want to die.

 

End of alternate hypothesis.

 

I'm still suspicious of Kipper, which could be just confirmation bias. The problem is that I can't tell what's reasonable suspicion and what's confirmation bias anymore. Either I'm onto something and I'm horribly wrong. Can somebody please respond and help me sort out my suspicions? 

[Hellscythe he/him]

I still love being a reference haha. Kipper should probably be scanned though.

 

Kipper would be more innocent in my eyes after associating himself with Wilson if not for the fact that Wilson threw herself off a cliff and essentially took one for the team. Which makes it possible that it was all just a play to make it seem like if Wilson was bad there would be no way Kipper could be bad after that scenario.

[Arraenae]

Has anybody seen Elkanah, Elby, or Biggoron recently? I don't remember seeing any of them post in here for a while.

 

Hellscythe, you're making me suspicious of Kipper again. And I just typed up a nice long alternate hypothesis to prove that I don't have confirmation bias against him! 

 

Someone please scan Kipper before I tunnel myself into SE-induced insanity.

[Guest]

I still love being a reference haha. Kipper should probably be scanned though.

 

Kipper would be more innocent in my eyes after associating himself with Wilson if not for the fact that Wilson threw herself off a cliff and essentially took one for the team. Which makes it possible that it was all just a play to make it seem like if Wilson was bad there would be no way Kipper could be bad after that scenario.

Haha, I'm extremely paranoid now about tunnelling. It's a nice thing to have, actually. Now, whenever someone accuses me, I can say, in the tone of the victim, "Stahp tunnelling me!!" and provide a link to your tunnel. Then everyone agrees that I was a victim...here's one of my Offical Rules (out of fifteen, so far) to explain.

Rule No. 7 for evading suspicion (Official Victim): It's harder to drum up a lynch on me if I can point to a specific instance (preferably with a proper name) where some similar suspicions turned out to be misplaced. See the "Ripple Effect," for example. I classify this a dumb metagame change, but it works.

Note: For the purposes of this game, please ignore the previous paragraph.

Arrenae, I think it's because of circumstantial things in this game, so don't fool yourself into thinking that it's just that Kipper, the player, is easy to tunnel, simply by virtue of being Kipper. If you have a suspicion of me, that's perfectly okay, (It's not, please go die) even if I do turn out to be Loyal. When Deathclutch tunnelled me, it was totally different than this. You've clearly looked at it from both sides, so I can't blame you if you come down on the evil side. (But I will blame you, and might even try to get you killed) Seriously, it's fine. So don't be paranoid. Have a cookie?

[Arraenae]

It's not from the Dark Alley, is it?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Y'know, this is something that Adavantos would say, but I would like everyone that sees this to post their Kandra and Mistborn votes. (Pink is way easier to see than purple) I'll try and update a tally a bit, but this is really like the lynch vote. Thanksgiving is over, and there isn't any more excuse to avoid posting. We had around 25% participation last vote, so lets see if we can at least double that. The people with roles don't have to follow these suggestions, but that doesn't mean that they don't have real weight behind them; there is potential here for us to gather information still.

 

Vote Tally Kandra:

Kipper (2): Araris, Arraenae

 

Vote Tally Mistborn:

Cow (1): Araris

Kipper(0): Arraenae

 

So lets get talking people!

 

Edit: Missed one (kind of)

Edited November 29, 2015 by Ookla the Bother

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Was Alvron ever scanned? To have survived this long warrants some scepticism as to his alignment...

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I think he might have been supposed to be scanned last cycle, but we didn't hear from Alvron so who knows what actually happened.

[Clanky he/him]

I can agree with a Mistborn killing Cow as he hasn't been around in forever. I haven't heard anything about Alvrons scan results so maybe the kandra decided on someone else instead or just hasn't revealed the results. If he hasn't been scanned then I will put my vote on him.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Is killing inactives really the right answer at this stage? Inactives are far less likely to be eliminators in my experience - and even if the are an eliminator are essentially useless to them - and if, as is likely, they are innocent, they provide us with another turn without the eliminators gaining numerical superiority over us.

[Clanky he/him]

Ya I suppose that at this point killing of inactives isn't really a priority. However I think we probably do have some traitors on the fringe of inactivity. So I will suggest Biggoron as someone who fits that bill. I was asked about him in a PM and didn't really have anything to say even though he has been posting occasionaly. 

 

EDIT I meant to colour Biggoron for death not a scan oops. 

Edited November 29, 2015 by Ookla the Cranky

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I would say that, aside from having a chance to kill an eliminator, taking out an inactive player is useful for figuring out role distributions. For example, if we mistborn Cow tonight and he turns out to be mistborn then we have an explanation for why there was only a single night with two mistborn kills. And it discourages that sort of inactivity in future games, I would say.

[queensteph she/her]

I'm going to vote for Lopen to calm my flippyflop suspicions of him. If not him, then my second choice is Kipper . I don't really have anyone I think who should be killed right now so I'm not going to place a mistborn vote. I do wish biggoron would post though since it'll be sad to lose my kin unless he's an eliminator then mistborn his butt.

[Biggoron he/him]

Oh yeah, hey, I'm still alive!! I have no (good) excuses for my inactivity, so I won't even try. But I do know a feruchemist that I'm fairly certain is good, so I say just straight up murder Kipper (since he's one of the very few I'm even a bit suspicious of). Also I'll vote to scan Lopen, since I've been pretty suspicious of him for awhile.

Also @Wyrm
Nice Thunderdome reference, bruh. B^))

EDITED TO CHANGE KANDRA VOTE FROM ME TO LOPEN

Edited November 29, 2015 by Biggoron

[Wyrmhero he/him]

The Night Shift is over! Please do not send any more PMs.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Day 7: Shard of Lost Time

 

Captain's Journal, 04/02/513 AK, Day Shift

Some have said that all is required for evil to triumph is for good to do nothing. I wonder, perhaps, if the reverse is also true?

 

It is also said that there are certain traits that one must display, if one wishes to succeed in the corporate world. Pragmatism, aggression, ambition. Some might even say a certain pathological tendency. An uncaring nature, one that ruthlessly exploits opportunity wherever it can be found.

 

I do not view such traits as evil or malicious. They are simply a fact of life. One either exploits, or is exploited by others. There are varying degrees, yes of course, but there is no true middle ground. Civilisation is built upon such an idea, from the nobles of the past, present in all worlds, to the companies of the present.

 

But perhaps I only see them as such because I possess these traits, as heir to the Heron Industries complex and one of the new ruling elite. Some may consider them differently to me. I think that though is simply explained by envy, and a lack of responsibility in people these days.

 

Where was I? Oh, yes.

 

It is strange then that even our enemies, people I might consider evil, may not have these traits. Perhaps it is appropriate then that they can display the opposite, apathy and sloth, two things which I cannot abide.

 

One of the officers aboard ship decided to check in on Bovinus, as he had not been reporting for duty recently. They found his door shut tight, the electronic lock broken beyond repair. After forcing their way in with their Allomancy, and ripping a hole as they did so, they discovered him inside. With him were plans, notes and plots of a nefarious nature. The Mistborn did their duty and executed him for his crimes against the ship.

 

Three of my crewmembers have now proven to be less than they claimed. I hope there are not too many more of their nature, or else we will find manning the ship to be something of a task.

 

Captain Wurum Heron

 

Crew Manifest

1. John (IrulelikeSTINK) - A rules lawyer's client with a mission. - Hemalurgist

2. Gaius Tekiel (Orlok)

3. Adelor Ien Far-Astra (Alfa)

4. Wynde Wilson (little wilson) - A woman afraid of airlocks. - Voidbringer

5. Tigger (Kipper) - T-I-Double-Guh-Err

6. James T Slade (Bridge Boy) - An ensign with delusions of Spook. - Forger

7. Inor Haze (Creccio) - BioChromancer

8. Pork (Paranoid King) - A pilot and board game fanatic - Feruchemist

9. Miral (Mailliw73) - Excited to be exploring the Cosmere - Hemalurgist

10. Cor Mordero (Alvron) - Petty Officer, in both rank and nature.

11. Arandar (Araris Valerian)

12. Rae Nova (Arraenae) - Possibly a death-seeker

13. Brega Daghar (The Honey Badger) - A man looking for opportunities - BioChromancer

14. Citoan Vinid (Shallan) - A naturally non-Allomancer who loves Allomancy - Kandra

15. Obsidibus Caesis Dormiam (phattemer)

16. Volke (TheMightyLopen)

17. Davenar Leiken (Adavantos)

18. Kaid (Kaid) - Voidbringer

19. Doctor McClay (Clanky)

20. Neil Weakarm (polkinghorndb) - Forger

21. Elby (Elbereth)

22. HELLSCYTHE (DeathClutch19) - Uninvested - HI

23. Steph (QueenSteph)

24. The High Priest of Elkanah (Elkanah)

25. Dow (dowanx) - Surgebinder

26. Sonder Kessligh (Kasimir) - Uninvested

27. Osmann (Zed) - Uninvested

28. Bort (Bort) - Uninvested

29. Ember Ghetti (Burnt Spaghetti)

30. Gylf (RippleGylf) - Uninvested

31. Bovinus (The Cow) - Uninvested

32. Biggoron (Biggoron)

 

Bovinus was a Traitor!

 

Day 7 has begun! PMs may no longer be sent.

 

Shift Clock

Celebration's over! Day Shift begins now, so hop to it!

 

Edited November 29, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Good job mistborn! Hopefully just 3 traitors to go! And it looks like we might be able to find one or more of them by looking at more inactive people. I can't really think of a strategic reason for them to avoid killing somebody, since if it was a ploy all that would result are dead inactive players, who weren't being super helpful to the village in the first place.