Long Game 14: To Shatter a Shard

[Kipper]

Oh. Well I knew I was good.

I'm still not completely sure. I know that lynching Maill is pointless since he will never be able to make a kill anyway.

[Seonid]

Sorry for the poor wording. I meant that I had confirmed kipper's alignment. If I had confirmed clanky's, I wouldn't be voting for him.

Clanky, I'm voting for you because karlin can't be the last oc. Somebody made a kill on Wilson the night cycle after we lynched phattemer. Marlin had to have been inactive for 72 hours (there were roughly 48 hours between the write up when Wilson died and the write up when karlin lost Odium). Somebody active had to have Odium the previous night cycle, and it's either you, me, or Kipper. I've just certified Kipper. If I were the last, mail's investment in me would have ended the game. That leaves you. Stink, Dow, raven, and mail all had unbroken shards that cycle, which would have caused Odium top go to another holder.

Stink, with endowment, technically could have held Odium, but he couldn't have been invested, and so couldn't have made the kill on Wilson, who was only a regular worldhopper at that point.

[Clanky]

You are right Seonid there was an attack on Wilson that couldn't have been done by Karlin. However it also couldn't have been done by me since you yourself role-blocked me.   Also since Karlin wasn't active then she couldn't have invested in anyone else if she held Odium at that point. That leaves two possibilities:

 

1) A different player held Odium and decided they didn't want it anymore so they gave it Karlin just for fun. Why would the OCs want a kill  anyways?

 

2) Someone else has a kill ability. Maybe someone who got invested by Odium earlier in the game and who has the ability to use the kill later. Now who has that ability this game?

[Mailliw73]

Seonid, you didn't finish reading the message. There was white text. I knew about your investment going through after mine.

[Seonid]

Well...that was embarrassing. I just checked Joe's message, and there was white text. I pay this on mobile normally, so highlighting isn't an option, and quoting everything gets tedious, so I tend to miss a lot of white text. My bad.

[Mailliw73]

[A Joe in the Bush]

Time.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Night Twelve:  Death of a Salesman.

 

The Silence was loud enough to hurt.

 

The remaining members of the Seventeenth Shard waited, hoping for others to tell them what to do. Without Wilkin, they were helpless. Fishes out of water, trapped in an Empty barrel. They all looked around the small circle, moving from face to face, trying to decide which among them was Evil. They passed quickly over Sheon’s face. none of them wanted to make eye-contact with him after last night. They didn’t exactly have a choice once he started talking though.

 

“Clink Jr, you’re the only one who could have killed Wilkin. And I intend to see that you don’t kill another one of us.”

 

The salesman’s son stood up fast enough to knock his chair over backwards. “Is that a threat, Champion?”

 

“A threat implies a possibility. This is a promise.” Sheon rose to his feet, glaring at Clink. “Tell me, why did you betray us? Why did you choose to serve Odium of all shards? Why?!”

 

Clink practically spat his words out. “I never betrayed anyone Oat-breaker!”

 

Sheon turned to face the others. “Is there anyone who would object to me killing this crem?”

 

The Seventeenth Shards looked down, none willing to look either of the arguers in the face.

 

“Then by the Power Invested in me by this Circle of Shards, I declare you A Champion of HAtred Clink, and Sentence you to death.”

 

Clink snarled and whipped a dagger out of his belt. He took a step forward and swung his arm towards Sheon’s face, but stopped midstroke. He struggled, trying to push the dagger further, but to no avail. Slowly his arm twisted in, redirecting the blade towards himself. He tried to resist, but the power dominating his arm was too strong.

 

With a scream of fear, he buried his dagger in his own throat. The onlookers jumped as his body hit the floor.

 

Sheon folded his arms and stared hard at the body, waiting for Odium’s power to leave it. But nothing happened. No smoke materialed. No shard appeared.

 

“Well then, back to Square one.”

 

Votes:

Clanky(2): Seonid, Clanky

 

Clanky was an Awakener!

 

Player List:

1. (IrulelikeSTINK) Leyton

2. (Mailliw73) Maw

3. (RavenRadiant7) Nyra

4. (Kipper) Stick

5. (Seonid) Sheon Idris

6. (Dowanx) Dow

 

1. (Surgebound Rainspren) Thug

 

1. (Winter Cloud) Ruin

2. (OrlokTsubodai) Devotion

3. (Phattemer) Poisoner

4. (Araris Valerian) WorldHopper

5. (Alvom Halbin) Lifeless Operator

6. (OstrichofEvil) Worldhopper

7. (Alvron) Dominion

8. (Eolhondras) Champion

9. (Macen) Dominion

10. (Quiver) Endowment

11. (Antillar Maximus) Awakener, Ruin

12. (Haelbarde) Odium

13. (Paranoid Emperor) Lifeless Operator

14. (The Honey Badger) Bloodsealer

15. (TheMightyLopen) Lifeless Operator

16. (Nicocoberru) Thug

17. (Phattemer) Poisoner, Odium

18. (Shallan) Honour

19. (Clanky) Awakener

20. (LittleWilson) Worldhopper.

 

 

[Mailliw73]

Dang, I forgot to vote.

[Seonid]

Well that didn't work the way I thought it was going to. Sorry Clanky. My gut said you were innocent, but the data said you had to be guilty. I spent the whole cycle trying to figure out a way that you weren't the one who did it. I asked Joe questions near the end of the cycle that would have changed my actions, but I didn't get answers until after Joe had called time on the cycle. So you died. My fault.

 

Anyways, here is what I have learned - specifically, that neither Dow, Raven, nor Stink can be considered cleared. We should have known that when Odium turned out to go to Karlin.

 

My thoughts are all jumbled right now - it's too late to think - but here's the framework of what I'm looking at. I still think that the cycle that Wilson died is key to finding the killer.

 

Information gained from Joe - A Shard can swap their shard with another shard, each giving up their shard to the other, without problem. Many of you likely already knew that, and it should be setting off alarm bells about clearing someone just because they hold a shard.

 

A shard may also invest in another shard successfully if that player gives up their shard the same cycle. Example: Alvron is Dominion, Hael is Odium. Hael invests in Alvron. Alv passes Dominion to phattemer. Next cycle, Alv may make the Champion kill.

 

Also, a Shard can invest a person and give them their shard in the same cycle, causing the person to have both abilities. Wilson knew this, and talked about it with Kipper and I. What we didn't realize, though, was that this was possible even if the investee held a shard, if they were doing a shard swap. Example - Odium and Dominion are the last 2 players left on Team Evil. They want to be able to do a double-tap. Odium invests Dominion, and passes his shard to him. Dominion passes his shard to Odium. The next cycle, all 3 abilities are available.

 

A Shard can invest in themselves, and if they pass the shard that cycle, they will have the investment ability.

 

Also, anytime Endowment holds a broken shard, they can use the Shardic ability. (Contra Kipper, in my PM - this means that there is a redirect action out there, as well as potentially a Ruin kill )

 

Also, Ruin kills will always be distinguishable in the write-up from Champion kills/Odium kills.

 

* * * * * * * * * *

 

So, with this in mind, let's see what might have happened on the night Wilson died. Odium obviously eventually went to Karlin (who hasn't died yet - either he has more than 1 vial of pewter or is a super-Devotion!Thug). However, Karlin has been off of the Shard since the 10th of September. Can't have made the kill. Obviously, Clanky didn't either. (Can't believe how wrong I was about that ) I don't have a kill ability, so I couldn't have (I recognize a lot of you don't believe it. All I have to say is LAFO - lynch and find out. But you do it at your peril.) Now, if Endowment held Dominion at the time, Endowment could have redirected Karlin's kill ability to Wilson. Problem is, I know what Dominion redirected that cycle, and it was my investment action. That was the round I stayed Neutral, despite investing in Wilson. Mail couldn't have invested me (because I now know what happens when we both invest, and mine takes precedence). Roleblocking doesn't block investment. That leaves redirection.

 

This actually significantly reduces the number of possible scenarios. I'm waiting on clarification from Joe as to how long he would wait if a Shard was given to an already inactive player. The cutoff is 72 hours, but if you've already been inactive for 72 hours, is it a next-cycle thing, or does the recipient always hold it for 72 hours before losing it due to inactivity?

 

From the assumption that it is 72 hours regardless: Karlin had therefore been holding the Shard of Odium since phatt was lynched. This is either because phatt invested in him and the shard followed the investment, or because phatt passed it there. If phatt had invested, the only way for Wilson to die would be because of Dominion's redirection. But that's already accounted for (see above).

 

So phatt must have passed the shard there. Smart, because it avoids the problem of being invested in and found out. He must also have invested in his compatriot to give them the kill. Who could that have been? Stink had Endowment (but this is not a full and complete clearing, as we shall see). Dow was given Cultivation that cycle. Raven was given Preservation during the day. This seems to indicate that either of them could have been invested in by Odium, and gotten their Shard simultaneously. So either of them could have made the kill.

 

What about Stink? Well, if Stink was evil, then Endowment would have been available to Team Evil since day 6. The only shard available for a while was Dominion, but that was conclusively in the hands of Raven by night 9. No guarantee it didn't come back, and a rather strong indication that either Endowment was passed to Raven or Raven passed dominion back to Stink by night 10, when my investment was redirected.

 

Assume that evil!Stink wouldn't have given Endowment up, so Dominion got moved back to Stink. Likely because the redirect ability is so valuable. So, in this scenario, Stink and phatt likely swapped Odium and Endowment between them to let them still make Champion kills. Under this option, phatt held both shards that day, but invested in Stink, passed Endowment to him, and passed Odium to Karlin. Stink then killed Wilson.

 

This is the most understandable of the options to me. The OC's would not want to give up Odium, and their ability to kill. But if they gave it to an inactive, they knew that they would get it back so long as they had Endowment. If Endowment is evil, then Odium is back in their hands easily. No risk. Just reward.

 

* * * * * * * * * *

 

So, what's the final verdict? I don't know. I strongly suspect that that will be yours to reach without me. I can't imagine any way that I won't be lynched tomorrow, with Clanky dead. If I survive the night, of course. I think I will. After you lynch me, though, and find out that I was on your side all along, read through this again. Hopefully it will help. Either Stink, Dow, or Raven is the last one. I don't know which. My money's on Stink, though. Kipper's guaranteed good. I invested him and was put on Team Village again. Mail tried investing in me day 11, which means that he was still neutral up until then. There are 3 good players left (not counting me, because I can become neutral at any time), which means at most 2 turns until the OCs have parity (less if Mail decides to join them - if I decided to join them with Mail, there would be voting parity right now, and this would be the last cycle. I haven't and won't, and so this isn't the last cycle.)

 

My best bet is Stink. The gambit with giving Odium to Karlin makes the most sense if they are guaranteed to get it back because of Endowment. I'm not conclusive on any of them, though.

 

Final question: What planet was Surgebound on during Night 1? If it was Scadrial, then he could be either a super!Thug or just a Thug with 2 vials. If not Scadrial, then he's a Thug with 2 vials. Orlok intended to invest in Mailliw Night 1, but died that round. So if Orlok's investment was redirected by Alvron to Surgebound, then that's where he got the extra vial from.

 

That's my analysis, thanks for reading. Hope you find it helpful. Sorry if it's incoherent. I'm going to sleep now. G'night.

[Mailliw73]

Orlok did invest in me Night 1, just to clarify.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Each vial of pewter lasts one cycle. 72 hours.

[Seonid]

Never mind. I forgot that. I shouldn't have, because that's what happened with nico. I blame lack of sleep.

Also, Joe confirmed that karlin would have kept his shard for 72 hours, so he's had it since phatt was lynched. Unfortunately, that means that any of the three could be the last OC.

[STINK]

Have you forgot that Endowment is always good? And that it goes to a villager? So I physically can't be evil, so you done goofed there Seonid

[A Joe in the Bush]

Have you forgot that Endowment is always good? And that it goes to a villager? So I physically can't be evil, so you done goofed there Seonid

Wrong.

 

Original Endowment is always good. After that, alignment can change.

[STINK]

Really? Oh.

[dowanx]

Seonid there is no way Stink can be an OC.  I am an Awakener and I scanned him early on before he held any shard or power and got the result of confirmed good.

[STINK]

So we lynch Seonid again tomorrow, before they can wipe us all out! 

Edited October 9, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[dowanx]

I shared that information with Wilson really early in the game and with Seonid being Hoid I am sure he was privy to most of the information Wilson had.  Which means he knew about that scan and yet posted a long analysis about you being an OC.  I will most likely be voting for Seonid next cycle.

[Seonid]

Newsflash: Wilson didn't share everything with me. For a period if at least a couple of cycles, possibly ending on our around the first time mail invested in me, she was worried that I had gone over to the other side. I am pretty sure I earned her trust back - at least, she told me I did. But a lot of stuff happened in the meantime that she never got around to filling me in. For several cycles, I thought raven held endowment. Even after she let me know that stink actually held it, I didn't know that raven held endowment until my vote was manipulated.

So no, I don't know everything Wilson knew. I might have a chance tonight to go back and find if she told me that particular piece of information, but I have 31 pages of PMs to search through and only a mobile to do it on. It's tedious work, so I rely on memory as much as I can. And sometimes I get that wrong.

Heck, often I get it wrong. But whatever. I wasn't going to get out of getting lynched tomorrow anyways, and you should probably still have enough players to win after I die.

[STINK]

Because when you die we win?

[Seonid]

Nope. Put it this way. If I were evil, this game would be over. Already. Because there is one more OC out there right now, and if I joined, Mail would have joined as well. He has essentially told me as much. That leaves 3 votes to 3. You don't control the lynch, one of the shards is evil, and if you add my powers to that? I'd have a kill, and I know where the protection roles are. I have a roleblock. I have a vote manipulation. The village is down far enough that you couldn't stop it. You don't have the roles.

Also, Dow, if you actually read my post, you'd know it wasn't a long post saying that stink was guilty, it was a long post saying that either you, raven, or stink was guilty, laying out how that would work for your cases, and concluding that stink was the one that made most sense to me. As with ask of my analysis posts, there was an implied invitation to participate, critique I'm not the only one making mistakes here.

Finally, stink, you might notice that I wrote my post expecting to be lynched. It is information for the benefit of the village, after you get rid of me.

Although frankly, I don't know why I bothered. I'm growing more and more hopeful that the eliminators do win, just to wipe the smug smirks off of your face when you realize that all of the time you wasted on me lost you the game. Not hopeful enough to join them, understand. I have a duty to the villagers who have died while I worked with them: Wilson, quiver, Shallan, Orlok. They're the reason I haven't already switched. Because you folks have given me every reason to.

EDIT: Autocorrect

Edited October 9, 2015 by Seonid

[Kipper]

Woah, whoa, whoa, let's not get too hasty. I don't think I'm being snug at all. The only reason I didn't kill you myself with the lynch yesterday is because I have doubt about you. I know that someone is lying about the whole targeting/Survival thing.

I would quite honestly have preferred not to lynch anyone until I knew for sure about Karlin, and that's why I've been silent. There's not much else for me to do at this point but to wait for Karlin to die and say that if he is not an OC, dowanx or Raven likely is.

[Seonid]

Woah, whoa, whoa, let's not get too hasty. I don't think I'm being snug at all. The only reason I didn't kill you myself with the lynch yesterday is because I have doubt about you. I know that someone is lying about the whole targeting/Survival thing.

I would quite honestly have preferred not to lynch anyone until I knew for sure about Karlin, and that's why I've been silent. There's not much else for me to do at this point but to wait for Karlin to die and say that if he is not an OC, dowanx or Raven likely is.

You're right, of course. Sorry Kipper. I suspect I'm just projecting Stink's attitude onto the rest of the village. You haven't been acting smug. Honestly, neither has Dow. He called me out on something I really should have remembered. I haven't gone over the PM with Wilson and you yet, but I bet I'll find the info in there.

I don't know why this game is getting under my skin so much. All y'all deserve an apology for that. You shouldn't have to deal with it. After this game, I might need to take a break for a while.

[dowanx]

Seonid sorry if I am coming across as smug that is the farthest from my intention.  

 

I honestly think Karlin is the last OC and will die shortly.  I would be very surprised to see 7 starting eliminators in the game.  But just in case, I am just trying to play for worst case scenario.  

 

So lets pretend worse case scenario exists.  You and Mail are an OC, karlin is an OC and there is one hidden OC among the rest of us.  That means you can tie the vote (might win it if Karlin comes back, but that is extremely unlikely).  The OC would make himself/herself known by tying the vote.  Luckily the eliminators have lost their kill ability by giving away Odium and it will come back to Endowment allowing us to make a kill. The next night we use that kill on the OC.  The voting is now 3-2 in favor of the village and we have a kill ability.  Granted it can't be used on people with dual lives without giving it back to the Eliminators, but we can at least keep it out of their hands.  

 

If the OC doesn't come out then you die and that leaves 3 - 2 villager lead with us still controlling the kill ability.  At that point we lynch Mail until he dies and it becomes a 3-1 with one of the 4 being the last OC.  That gives us extremely good odds of winning.  In fact I think it would be a guaranteed win because we still have the kill ability.  

 

Honestly the only way to prevent us from winning is if Kipper, Raven, Stink and myself start arguing and we lynch one of us instead of forcing a tie with the lynch on you.

 

You have worked hard this game Seonid and I truly would feel bad if you died and you weren't an OC, but this is the safest course for a win.

 

 

Edit Note -  If Karlin is actually innocent this strategy will still work.  If I missed something in my thinking there let me know.

Edited October 9, 2015 by dowanx