Long Game 14: To Shatter a Shard

[Clanky he/him]

I may have posted above listing them in order!

 

Also, if you remember, I admitted roleblocking you that cycle! Just like I admitted roleblocking you last night! And both were at Wilson's suggestion, as she was convinced that you were the last OC. Kipper can back me up on that, at least, for all he doesn't trust me anymore. He was in the same PM. He can see that every cycle for the past 3, Wilson has asked me to roleblock you. That was done in the open between us.

 

Are you being willfully blind here?

 

I actually missed that part sorry. I just read about your list of players.

 

I am not talking about the cycle you claimed to have blocked me. I am referring to the previous cycle where I attempted to block phat and he still made a kill so I must have been role-blocked.

[Seonid he/him]

I claimed to roleblock you in that one too. Like I said in my post above - I've been roleblocking you for the last 3 cycles on Wilson's instructions.

 

I'll even quote myself:

 

Nevermind. I can't quote from a locked thread. Here's the link to my first apology. If I hadn't roleblocked you last night - and therefore knew that you couldn't have made the kills, I'd be voting for you right now. As it is, the last OC is either Raven, Stink, or dow, for reasons posted above.

 

And lynching me is going to take two rounds that you rather desperately need to win this game. There are 8 players left - one is evil. Two, if Mail changes sides. The two rounds it takes to kill me (more, if preservation invests me again) will bring you down to 5 players left, one evil (two, if mail changes sides, and he likely will if team evil gets that close to winning. I know he's rooting for them.) At which point, a single mislynch will lose the game for you. This is not a winning proposition.

 

If I do end up being on the lynch table this cycle, I'll drop everything I know in-thread, including where Honor, Cultivation, and Endowment are. That will be valuable for the OCs, but I hope that it will be more valuable for everyone in-thread, because it will make almost certain that you don't make that fatal mislynch after killing me.

[dowanx]

Seonid, since you were in communication with Wilson for basically all of the game you know two of those three you listed couldn't be an OC.   Why would you include those in your analysis if you know they are good? ;/   

 

Seonid

[STINK he/him]

Based on Seonids reaction, I feel better about lynching them now

[Seonid he/him]

You know what, fine! You want everything? I'll give you everything.

 

Here's everything I know. Stink's been Endowment long enough that he can't be Odium. Strike him from the list. Kipper claims that you are Cultivation, dow. That means that you can't hold Odium. The only two choices left are Raven and Clanky. One of them holds Preservation (unless it was given back to kipper). Since I roleblocked Clanky, that leaves Raven as the only option for the holder of Odium, which means that Clanky likely holds preservation. I won't reveal the holder of Honor, as that doesn't help us analyze.

 

You want to know why I've been reticent? Because I didn't know where Preservation was. And I didn't know whether to trust Kipper's claim on where Cultivation was.

 

I was going to secret vote for Raven, too, because she holds Dominion, and I didn't want her knowing that I voted for her. I was going to use my vote-change power as well, to try and get a lynch on her. Obviously, though, I'm going to need my defensive powers tonight if I want to stay alive, and I don't dare use them up.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

There we go! This is more like it! Seonid, you're wrong on one count: I'm not rooting for the OCs.

[STINK he/him]

I fail to see how revealing who is good is supposed to be good for the village, which should always be your goal Seonid, if you are a villager

[Seonid he/him]

If not, then vote with me for raven. Or if I'm wrong there, then tell me where, and I'll vote for who needs voting.

[Clanky he/him]

I claimed to roleblock you in that one too. Like I said in my post above - I've been roleblocking you for the last 3 cycles on Wilson's instructions.

 

That first apology was day 10. Therefore you only claimed to role-block me Night 9 and Night 10. I am talking about Night 8. I was given Ruin Day 8 and Role-blocked Phat Night 8. The OCs still made both kills. So I was role-blocked I assume.

 

UNLESS, apparently the OCs had been passing Odium around every cycle to the same player they invest in. I suppose that OC#2 could have had Odium when I role-blocked Phat, then passed Odium to Phatt in time for Wilsons investment to fail. Does this make sense from a rules and timeline perspective? If so then that explains this quite well

 

Still, I'm not sure I agree with Seonids implication of Raven. Could I potentially get a PM with Kipper, and/or Dowanx? Seonid would be nice as well.

[Seonid he/him]

Stink, I wanted to discuss this in PMs. I wanted to work this through with the people I knew I could trust. I only have a PM with Kipper, who doesn't trust me enough to say anything, or to work with me. I waited until literally everyone I knew I could trust turned against me in thread before posting my information here. My hand was essentially forced. I felt my conclusions, and the reasoning that went into them, were important enough to the village to post everything in thread.

The second reason I posted everything is because I lost my patience. If I had decided to walk away and calm down before I responded, I probably wouldn't have said anything. But I didn't. False accusations hit hard for me. Especially false accusations that completely ignore relevant information, like Clanky's and Dow's.

[Seonid he/him]

EDIT: Sorry, hit post twice

Edited October 5, 2015 by Seonid

[Guest]

Okay, so as Seonid says, I can witness to Wilson asking him to roleblock Clanky.

Seonid did have a rather large reaction to all this, and I'm not entirely sure what to make of that.

However, revealing all that information does not help the village at all.

I'm currently waiting on a clarification from Joe that will help me figure all of this out for good.

Mailliw, did you Invest Seonid last Night?

[Seonid he/him]

He claims he didn't. Which means that I must have been roleblocked last night, except that Clanky says he didn't do that. Which nabs that one of the three of us are lying out that Clanky gave up ruin to someone who roleblocked me. Which is possible. And if it happened, then it would be nice if somebody would confirm it. At least to Kipper, who can apparently still get PMs.

And Kipper, my information doesn't help the village at all? When we can lynch the last Odium's Champion today, before they can use it? When between us we have our should have enough information to clear everyone except one? When this would be the last cycle of the game if everyone weren't so intent on lynching me?

Unwise, sure. A mistake, probably. But completely unhelpful? Give me some credit here.

[STINK he/him]

One of you three are lying? So you could be lying? Why aren't you defending yourself anymore?

[Seonid he/him]

One of you three are lying? So you could be lying? Why aren't you defending yourself anymore?

 

Because I've said everything that could be said. I'm Team Neutral, on my way to turning Team Good. All of the information that could possible be useful to the village is out in the thread. I've held back only where Honor is and where Lopen left his Lifeless, because that could be useful in foiling the OC's plans.

 

Another point to bring up - one innocent village member will be invested by Odium tonight or else Odium won't be able to use their kill. Unfortunately, the investment kill can't harm Odium. If you really want to get rid of me, use it on me tonight. I can almost guarantee I'll be roleblocked, so my lashing won't be able to block it. Then you'll know I wasn't lying. On that note, Mail, would you please refrain from investing in me tonight? I rather suspect I'm going to die, and I'd rather not die Neutral. I hope you can understand that.

 

I'd appreciate a PM with Clanky as much as he'd like one with me. Would Cultivation set that up please?

 

A final point - Surgebound is inactive. So our numbers are really 4 good, 2 neutral, 1 evil, (1 inactive). Watch out for that. If Mail switches, the numbers turn to the village losing the lynch a lot faster than you think they do.

 

A final note: I don't know what turned Kipper against me. He's never articulated his suspicions. Clanky I can understand. I'd like it if Kipper would enumerate the full list of his grievances against me.

[Guest]

Hold on, gimme a few minutes. They are coming.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Now I'm not the only one who gets fed up and releases all my information. Thanks, Seonid, for not making me the only one.  

 

Kipper, I did not Invest Seonid last night, so either he forgot to pick someone who's side to join, or he was roleblocked.

[Seonid he/him]

Mail, why did you vote for Kipper?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Why not? Kipper. Wilson.

Edited October 5, 2015 by Mailliw73

[Guest]

I'm waiting on one final clarification, and then I will post my endgame strategy.

Edit: Grammar

Edited October 5, 2015 by Guest

[Guest]

Awesome. Dowanx is completely clear because he just got unbroken!Cultivation this cycle. I am also completely clear, because I say so. STINK is completely clear, because Endowment. Karlin is clear, because of inactivity. Raven is completely clear, because she holds unbroken!Preservation. Obviously Mailliw is Survival.

That leaves Seonid and Clanky. I should note here that nothing Seonid has done convinces me of his guilt. It's simply that the possibility exists.

Possibilities:

Possibility One: Seonid is the only OC, and holds Odium.

Possibility Two: Clanky is the only OC, and holds Odium.

Possibility Three: Seonid and Clanky are both OCs; one of them holds Odium.

I know who holds Ruin, and because they have no motivation to lie to me, I can say definitively that Seonid's targeting of a person was not roleblocked last night. His roleblock was roleblocked. So I'm pretty sure Seonid is lying about it. This would mean that either Possibility 1 or Possibility Three is the most likely.

Seonid has one extra life, so countering either of these possibilities begins with a lynch on Seonid, to remove that extra life. After that, it's really quite simple.

During the night, two of the people with unbroken Shards gift those Shards to Seonid and Clanky, one each (This assumes Possibility 3, but it covers the others). If they are both OCs, they have three options.

1. Leave Odium where it is. In this case, one of the Shard gifts will fail, and we will have found Odium.

2. Gift Odium to the other OC. In this case, there are two possibilities. 2a (Virtually the same as #3). Odium ends up with Endowment; both Shard gifts succeed, or 2b. Odium ends up with the other OC, one of the Shard gifts fails, we find Odium.

3. Gift Odium to a random villager. This would be a monumentally bad idea....

So, answering the possibilites:

1. We lynch Odium. If the game does not end, that means we have an OC left. Since the other OC will already have a Shard when Odium dies, Odium will go to Endowment. Endowment kills Seonid/Clanky, we end the game. If not, kill Mailliw.

2a. See #3.

2b. See end of possibility #1.

3. We lynch Preservation. Endowment kills Cultivation at night. If game still doesn't end, we attack Maill with a vengeance.

Interestingly enough, all of these possibilities start with taking out Seonid's extra life!

If I missed anything, do let me know.

[STINK he/him]

You missed out on the bit at the end where you go:

 

DESTROYED!

[Seonid he/him]

Kipper, as far as I am aware, you cannot roleblock specific actions. Ruin's ability roleblocks everything the target does. So Ruin couldn't have just roleblocked my own roleblock - they instead roleblocked all of my actions.

 

EDIT: Joe, tell me if I'm wrong...

Edited October 5, 2015 by Seonid

[Guest]

Joe already clarified that for me. He said that the roleblock would work on specific actions.

[Clanky he/him]

I believe that role-blocks do stop all actions. Also can Hoid even hold a full shard?

 

EDIT: Ninja'd.

When I asked Joe about Ruins role-block he had said that it would block all actions taken by your target. Does this mean you can choose to block one action or all actions?

Edited October 5, 2015 by Clanky