Long Game 14: To Shatter a Shard

[STINK he/him]

Because when you die we win?

[Seonid he/him]

Nope. Put it this way. If I were evil, this game would be over. Already. Because there is one more OC out there right now, and if I joined, Mail would have joined as well. He has essentially told me as much. That leaves 3 votes to 3. You don't control the lynch, one of the shards is evil, and if you add my powers to that? I'd have a kill, and I know where the protection roles are. I have a roleblock. I have a vote manipulation. The village is down far enough that you couldn't stop it. You don't have the roles.

Also, Dow, if you actually read my post, you'd know it wasn't a long post saying that stink was guilty, it was a long post saying that either you, raven, or stink was guilty, laying out how that would work for your cases, and concluding that stink was the one that made most sense to me. As with ask of my analysis posts, there was an implied invitation to participate, critique I'm not the only one making mistakes here.

Finally, stink, you might notice that I wrote my post expecting to be lynched. It is information for the benefit of the village, after you get rid of me.

Although frankly, I don't know why I bothered. I'm growing more and more hopeful that the eliminators do win, just to wipe the smug smirks off of your face when you realize that all of the time you wasted on me lost you the game. Not hopeful enough to join them, understand. I have a duty to the villagers who have died while I worked with them: Wilson, quiver, Shallan, Orlok. They're the reason I haven't already switched. Because you folks have given me every reason to.

EDIT: Autocorrect

Edited October 9, 2015 by Seonid

[Guest]

Woah, whoa, whoa, let's not get too hasty. I don't think I'm being snug at all. The only reason I didn't kill you myself with the lynch yesterday is because I have doubt about you. I know that someone is lying about the whole targeting/Survival thing.

I would quite honestly have preferred not to lynch anyone until I knew for sure about Karlin, and that's why I've been silent. There's not much else for me to do at this point but to wait for Karlin to die and say that if he is not an OC, dowanx or Raven likely is.

[Seonid he/him]

Woah, whoa, whoa, let's not get too hasty. I don't think I'm being snug at all. The only reason I didn't kill you myself with the lynch yesterday is because I have doubt about you. I know that someone is lying about the whole targeting/Survival thing.

I would quite honestly have preferred not to lynch anyone until I knew for sure about Karlin, and that's why I've been silent. There's not much else for me to do at this point but to wait for Karlin to die and say that if he is not an OC, dowanx or Raven likely is.

You're right, of course. Sorry Kipper. I suspect I'm just projecting Stink's attitude onto the rest of the village. You haven't been acting smug. Honestly, neither has Dow. He called me out on something I really should have remembered. I haven't gone over the PM with Wilson and you yet, but I bet I'll find the info in there.

I don't know why this game is getting under my skin so much. All y'all deserve an apology for that. You shouldn't have to deal with it. After this game, I might need to take a break for a while.

[dowanx]

Seonid sorry if I am coming across as smug that is the farthest from my intention.  

 

I honestly think Karlin is the last OC and will die shortly.  I would be very surprised to see 7 starting eliminators in the game.  But just in case, I am just trying to play for worst case scenario.  

 

So lets pretend worse case scenario exists.  You and Mail are an OC, karlin is an OC and there is one hidden OC among the rest of us.  That means you can tie the vote (might win it if Karlin comes back, but that is extremely unlikely).  The OC would make himself/herself known by tying the vote.  Luckily the eliminators have lost their kill ability by giving away Odium and it will come back to Endowment allowing us to make a kill. The next night we use that kill on the OC.  The voting is now 3-2 in favor of the village and we have a kill ability.  Granted it can't be used on people with dual lives without giving it back to the Eliminators, but we can at least keep it out of their hands.  

 

If the OC doesn't come out then you die and that leaves 3 - 2 villager lead with us still controlling the kill ability.  At that point we lynch Mail until he dies and it becomes a 3-1 with one of the 4 being the last OC.  That gives us extremely good odds of winning.  In fact I think it would be a guaranteed win because we still have the kill ability.  

 

Honestly the only way to prevent us from winning is if Kipper, Raven, Stink and myself start arguing and we lynch one of us instead of forcing a tie with the lynch on you.

 

You have worked hard this game Seonid and I truly would feel bad if you died and you weren't an OC, but this is the safest course for a win.

 

 

Edit Note -  If Karlin is actually innocent this strategy will still work.  If I missed something in my thinking there let me know.

Edited October 9, 2015 by dowanx

[Seonid he/him]

You're fine, Dow. I've got a thin skin this game, I guess.

As for your analysis, it's not bad, although it doesn't take into account either my roleblock or protection abilities, or potential shardic shenanigans that could be pulled. If it were cultivation that were evil, they wouldn't have to reveal themselves with the vote. Neither would I, honestly, because u have a secret vote too. Preservation could use the UP ability to seal a vote in before everyone had gotten on. Kipper mentioned that shards are being passed around to keep them safe, too, so if endowment got into the hands of the OC, they'd get the Odium kill back.

And if I were evil, the OC's would still have a kill ability too. Of course, y'all would have protection too, so it'd be more of a crapshoot, but it would be better than letting folks get lynched until it was 1 to 3. But your right, it's not quite so clear-cut as I made it out to be.

But back to the real world, where I'm not on Team Evil; based on your comment about scanning sink and getting guaranteed good, I suspect that raven is the last OC.

I still don't get why y'all think karlin is the last one, though. I don't see any way he could have made the Wilson kill without getting on the shard. If he'd put it in via email/PM, it would have been activity, and he wouldn't have lost the shard.

Edited October 10, 2015 by Seonid

[dowanx]

There are ways to prevent most of the shenanigans, but I won't go into depth on the forum here for the obvious reasons.  

 

Karlin might just be an innocent.  Wilson's death is an interesting puzzle.  Raven very well could be the last OC, but I know for certain it is not myself or Stink and Kipper has proven himself over the course of the game.  If you didn't have the team switching capability I would include you in that list, but unfortunately we just don't know.

[Seonid he/him]

Here's a way to know for sure. You have dominion available, as well as endowment. Get dominion to endowment, and have them pick a cycle to force mail to invest in me. Don't let me know which cycle it is. I'll announce in thread when I get invested in. If I don't, you'll know that mail's picked a side and can't invest. If I do, you know that both of us are neutral and that there's still an ox out there.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

An ox? I sure hope there isn't an ox, Joe said no secret roles.

[Seonid he/him]

I begin to feel about my Autocorrect the same way Jain felt about the color...

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Time.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Day 13: Poor Communication Kills

 

Karlin no longer loved his dreams. They had changed again, the skies blackening, the paradise fading. Only Loathing remained. Something was wrong with him, but he knew not what it was. Something was trying it’s best to corrupt his honour. He resisted as best he could, but his dreamworld was still breaking apart.

 

Hatred’s Poison wasn’t the only problem. Something else was affecting it as well. Something was happening to his Physical body. But he didn’t know what it could be. A sickness perhaps?

 

He fought against both foes in his mind, fighting to keep his Sleeping Paradise alive, but under attack from both Physical and Cognitive aspects of himself, his Spiritual Self couldn’t survive. The harder he fought, the more the dream cracked and vanished. He could no longer remember parts of it. He didn’t even know how much of it he had already forgotten.

 

The Dreamscape changed again, as his body suddenly stopped affecting it. Karlin was relieved at first, until he realized his Physical aspect was completely cut off from his Cognitive and Spiritual functions. Something had killed his body.

 

The Hatred of the dream faded away, as his Cognitive Aspect moved on, leaving the soul of the dreamer to wither away in nothingness.

 

Karlin was Odium! and a Thug!

 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

So, a good Odium. That means the OC is still alive. 

[STINK he/him]

Is it day or night?  Can we kill Seonid yet? Also I'm glad that Wilson is mad, it makes you think about wanting to die doesn't it?

Edited October 10, 2015 by IrulelikeSTINK

[Guest]

Storm it, I can't figure out who the baddie is. I look forward to seeing Wilson's rants about how easy it should be...

Fortunately, if we lynch Seonid today, we can't lose, on the off chance that Seonid is indeed an OC. Unfortunately, if Seonid is an OC and Presevation is as well, Preservation will have Invested him, and we still win, but it's a little more tricksy.

Seonid, any ideas how to figure out dowanx or Raven?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Is it day or night?  Can we kill Seonid yet? Also I'm glad that Wilson is mad, it makes you think about wanting to die doesn't it?

 

 

Day 13: Poor Communication Kills

[STINK he/him]

So might as well do Seonid. And if this is wrong then it's fine.

[Seonid he/him]

Storm it, I can't figure out who the baddie is. I look forward to seeing Wilson's rants about how easy it should be...

Fortunately, if we lynch Seonid today, we can't lose, on the off chance that Seonid is indeed an OC. Unfortunately, if Seonid is an OC and Presevation is as well, Preservation will have Invested him, and we still win, but it's a little more tricksy.

Seonid, any ideas how to figure out dowanx or Raven?

Eliminators are always easier to identify in hindsight...

As far as picking between raven and Dow, I'm leaving towards raven. Inactivity is probably the best strategy for an eliminator at this stage of the game. They need to get three or four players dead (mail doesn't count towards their win con, and when I'm neutral, neither do I).

Without a kill role, the best bet for the eliminator is to try to avoid attention (and try to get mail or I to join them). Raven has been doing that.

It's not a lot to go on, but it tips the scales slightly. In addition, Dow has strongly argued for clearing stink, which doesn't benefit the eliminators. If someone is conclusively cleared like that, then that makes a person that the eliminators can't manipulate us into lynching. That's another point in favor of Dow being good, which points towards raven being not.

[Guest]

Seonid. I'm sorry about this if you're good. If you are good, no matter, we still win. If you are neutral, well, you can pin your hopes on whoever, provided Mailliw isn't a jerk by Investing you.

I believe you have to die to accomplish a certain win, because there is a possibility that you are bad.

If we could get a couple more votes on Seonid to ensure a kill, that would be fantastic.

Edited October 11, 2015 by Guest

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I haven't invested in Seonid in a while, so he should be able to pick a side.

[Seonid he/him]

Honestly, at this point it's tough to care. You're wrong about one thing, lynching me isn't the only way to a certain win. There's a thing called "trusting people," especially when they've done things to be trustworthy.

But that apparently has never been an option, so I guess we'll just go like this: Seonid

There's another extra vote for you

[Guest]

I'm sorry about this if you are good, but there's just enough feels to the contrary that I can't get over the idea that you have a high likelihood of being bad. Even that vote on yourself could easily just be a tug on my sympathy. I realize I'm being paranoid, but...sorry, I'm not the only one who suspect/ed you.

[Seonid he/him]

Since at this point, the lynch is pretty much set, I'm just going to leave a lists of points as to why you should be able to tell that I'm not evil.

First off: My lashing protected Wilson from death at least once, and would have done so a second time if I hadn't been directly instructed to protect someone else - and Wilson was the most dangerous player the village had. That is, in fact, why she trusted me.

The first time mail invested me, making me neutral, I immediately revealed it to you, Kipper, in the PM we had with Wilson. If you remember, Wilson had asked mail to invest in me to see what I'd do. I acted in good faith there.

In addition, I've lashed who you've asked me to lash and roleblocked who I've been asked to roleblock up until the point when you stopped asking me to lash and roleblock anymore.

I've voted for every Odium's Champion except, I think, for Antillar, which was during my brief phase of inactivity while I was trying to get the MR fixed.

During last day cycle, I lynched Clanky, despite him being the only other person who could reliably take suspicion off of me. If I were evil, I'd have to have been incredibly stupid to kill him.

Mail has invested in me once since Wilson died, which should prove that there is one more OC. Because even if I am evil right now, when mail invested in me, that would have ended the game. (Since I was already neutral that cycle, and was investing in Kipper, it didn't change my alignment, but that is forget proof of my point).

I publicly cleared Kipper after investing in him. If I were evil, clearing anyone like that would be counterproductive, since the lynch is the only kill the OC's have, and a cleared person isn't one they could get us to mislynch on.

Finally, I offered a foolproof way to tell if I'm evil: use dominion+ endowment to force mail to invest in me. Or, if you trust mail, have him invest me. Don't tell me when. This also serves to clear mail. If I don't tell you the message he sent while investing, then mail's picked a side. If I do, you know for sure that I'm not evil that round.

Since I offered that last cycle, and nobody said anything (even to criticize it if it's not foolproof), I'm having a hard time believing that any of you actually care whether or not I'm actually evil.

I thought about staying neutral instead of investing in you, Kipper. That way I could publicly threaten to join team Odium if you lynched me. I chose not too, because I started on Team Village and wanted to end on Team Village. I suppose I'll let this stand as my epitaph.

[Seonid he/him]

Ninja'ed by Kipper. Your paranoia is excusable. And my vote on myself was a tug on your sympathies. But not because I'm evil. Just because I'm good and I'd like not to die this game. I'd rather not have this character (who, truth be told, I'm rather attached to) survive only because I've asked the GM to have him survive in the write up for 2 games in a row.

But since I realize that, even if I survive this cycle, you're just going to lynch me next cycle, I give up.

Right now, my secret vote is on raven, and my vote manipulation is moving stink to raven as well. That will tie the vote. But I'm going to cancel those orders, so I don't have to deal with another cycle of this. I'm not up to it anymore, and I'm tired of defending myself when it should be obvious.

By the way, and I mean this in ask seriousness, Kipper. Thank you for at least feeling sorry about it. I'll try not to take it personally.

EDIT: Autocorrect

Edited October 11, 2015 by Seonid

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Time.