Mid-Range Game 8: Highborn Intrigue

[Adamir he/him]

Question: In the hypothetical situation that Alvrom is an Eliminator, why does he go out of his way to mention Clanky as someone to trust?

 

Answer: Because singling out Clanky would be too good of an opportunity for the village to pass up. He would be practically serving one of his teammates on a silver platter.

 

Conclusion: While I am not leaping to conclusions yet, if Alvrom is an Eliminator, Clanky is likely not.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Given Clanky was the one that figured out Hero was an Eliminator and was instrumental in having him strung up, it's pretty obvious he's a noble. I guess there's a chance it was all an intended fabrication to ensure that even if we somehow turned the game around that one of theirs would never be suspected, but I doubt that.

[Shallan she/her]

Well, this is good, and now we've confirmed that they don't have a guardsman. Besides that, what were they trying to do by not targeting any of our suspicons? It could be that all of our suspicions are them, or I suppose none could be. Gah, why do all my analyses end up being useless?!? I have no idea what to do, but assuming they have 4 and we have 12, maybe 2 Shardplate on our side, 1 on theirs, and random lynches, then it would go like this: I tried and there is no way I can do this on a mobile.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

My vote will go on Paranoid King for now, since his activity over the last couple cycles has been suspicious to me. See the posts I made last cycle. If he comes on and responds then likely I will switch my vote to Adamir, who I strongly suspect for how he went after me. Also, Macen, could you outline in what ways you think I have acted suspicious?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I would like to hear more from the more experienced players such as: Haelbarde, Orlok, Adamir, and Macen. Haelbarde said he had some ideas he wanted to flesh out some more before posting, but the rest of you haven't said much the last couple cycles.

 

Macen, I would like to hear your suspicions of Araris as well. You've said you think he is a conspirator, but you haven't given any reasoning yet. I've been looking through the game, and I believe your vote on Araris is the only time you've voted. You seem to be playing very quietly, which could mean you're an eliminator trying to avoid attention. What do you have to say for yourself?

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

38 pages is too much to try and analyze at once. >.> But I did get through the first day or two, which was still very interesting. Which I found strange was how the Conspirators don't have the Doc during the day to communicate with each other in, so during that Day 1 lynch, we can see now how Ripple was up for the lynch, and then Hero started the vote train on Phat. While this was under the guise of the Crusade, I do think that that vote can be worth taking a look at, with 2 known conspirators taking part in a lynch swing. We know that Stink was a Noble, so that leaves Lopen and Alvom. I would try at least looking at  anymore connections between them and Hero and Ripple, possibly, throughout the game. Especially the earlier in the game, they would have had less Doc time to be able to coordinate and communicate with each other effective strategies at dodging suspicions, possibly.

 

Also, the whole discussion of the WGG.... I don't think I need to explain to anybody the multiple levels of #UrbainParanoia. The more the idea gets discussed and dismissed, without any sort of follow through, then the more temping the idea becomes to the Eliminators. Especially if all we do whenever it comes up is go, "meh, but would they really do that?"..... Um, yeah. They really would, given that mentality. I'm still trying to figure out the rules, and possible allocation/interaction of the different roles, but I could see tons of benefit in sacrificing a Shardplate for the sake of earning trust for that player going forward in the game. So I'm going to toss a vote onto Bort, simply because of 1 of two reasons: 1) Obviously the possible WGG, and 2) Even if you are a villager, you still can't be 100% trusted or verified, (I don't think?), and since your 2nd life is used up, the Conspirators don't need to worry about attacking you again, since you're the focus of so much villager discussion, so we either argue back and forth about lynching you or not, or we just go ahead and do it. >.>

 

Maggus brushed his shimmering cloak aside as it hung well down over his shoulders and past his arm, it's radiating light illuminating the small, abandoned wooden cabin he had found inside the sprawling encampment. It's smooth, grainless features indicated it was soulcast. Artificial. Like so many other things in the Kholin war camp. 

 

He was writing down his thoughts and the results of his inquiries. It was borderline blasphemy, he knew, to be a male who was able to write in this part of the world. The Alethi could be so backwards at times.

 

So he had to play the part, sending missives to the scribes, asking for past trial records, and bribing the couriers for any messages they remembered delivering, things like that. Maggus didn't know how he had gotten mixed up in this whole storming mess, but the armored guards posted at the gates and not allowing people to leave made him take things very seriously.

Edited September 5, 2015 by Gamma Fiend
colored vote

[Clanky he/him]

I agree with Seonid that a WGG for the eliminators is probably not worth it. However based on the amount of trust that was showed Kipper after he lost his shardplate to an eliminator attack I would not completely rule it out.

So I basically I am leaning towards trusting Bort but wouldn't recommend revealing everything to him like what people did for Kipper.

Alvom- I don't have anyone who I am completely sure is innocent this game since I never was in contact with an Ardent. Also just because I was right about Hero doesn't mean that my suspicions are more valid than anyone else's. Me being correct once doesn't increase my chances of being correct about anything else. That is a type of logical fallacy but I am too lazy to go and look up anything about it

Now onto who I am suspicious of:

-Araris has been very defensive of people who vote on him and brought up reasons on his own of why he should be soft-confirmed. I think soft-confirms should be found by other players since it is easy to do things that soft confirm you when you are one of the well informed minority. Also his interactions with Adamir have been odd. He always said Adamir was one of his biggest suspicions but only actually voted for him on the cycle that Hero was lynched by a large margin. This makes me think that Adamir and Araris may be eliminators working to distance themselves from each other

-Adamir: See above. Also used terrible logic(sorry but it was) as reasoning for why Hero probably wasn't an eliminator. He also went inactive in thread after saying he would be more active. This was after Heros lynch so he didn't need to worry about avoiding his (theoretically) teammate targeting him with the contribution crusade.

-I am leaning towards trusting PK because of some things he has said in a PM and because of his almost lynch deciding vote on hero.

P.S. It would be nice if we could have a renewal of discussion on role distribution based on what we have seen so far since I have had a few people reveal roles to me and I am not very good at that stuff myself.

EDIT: The post of Adamirs I referred to above

EDIT: My main argument for not voting against Hero is that he was an Eliminator in his last game; the odds of him being one twice are statistically low.

Edit 2: by role distribution I mean more like what the eliminators have and what 5hey would corrupt/ leave uncorrupted

Edited September 6, 2015 by Clanky

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Clanky, Alvron warned earlier about trying to guess the village's roles because that's the kind of information the elimnators want. I'll say what I think the elimnators may have though. 

 

Artifabrian(probably corrupted)

Courier 

Con Artist

Brightlord/lady

1 or since Alvron said this, maybe 2 Shardplates(although I hope this is not the case)

 

With 3 eliminators I might remove one of those, probably Brightlord/lady or Con Artist. Also, if there are only 3 left, I think that might raise the chances of them having 2 Shardplates.

 

Edit: Oh yeah, it might not be a bad idea to tell Clanky what you think the village roles are in a PM with him. Although if the eliminators do have a courier that's kinda dangerous too.

Edited September 6, 2015 by TheMightyLopen

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I have been a bit defensive for a reason. When two of the first votes in a cycle go on you shortly after you offered to sacrifice yourself for the sake of the village, and there are two more people that have openly expressed wanting to lynch you for little to no reason then it is about time to start defending yourself. I may have gone a bit far, but all of the points I made were valid to some extent and needed to be said. It would have been nice if somebody else had noticed the things that I  brought up, since they weren't really justifications but really just and explanation of events everyone already knew about.

 

And the reason I have gone after those folks a bit is because none of them has expressed solid suspicions of me, except maybe Lopen (but I still find what he posted a bit flimsy, it's just better that what anyone else has done). So it seems like at least a couple of people are voting on me because I've been judged as suspicious by the crowd, so it is fairly safe to put a vote on me.

 

As for voting on Adamir, I've tried calling him out but haven't really gotten a response, but it also doesn't look like anyone else would be willing to vote with me on him. I have been trying to use my vote to emphasize my suspicions that I haven't already made clear to everyone.

[Clanky he/him]

Well Araris I would be happy to vote for Adamir with you Araris. I don't think that we have heard enough from him and he has refrained from voting for anyone but Araris. Also he had previously disqualified Araris as a lynch target unless he did something "incredibly suspicious" and then still voted for him twice. 

 

Tell me Adamir, what did Araris do that was incredibly suspicious? If it really was that suspicious why are you no longer trying to get him lynched?

Edited September 6, 2015 by Clanky

[Adamir he/him]

He didn't - there was simply no one else to vote for. I had already disqualified Araris for the last two cycles; my main suspicions on him had been because of his initial crusade against Stink, and because I had given the suggestion for Stink to be assassinated with the statement that I would vote for Araris unless he did something to prove himself innocent should Stink be innocent.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Hmm. I would be willing to put my vote on Adamir. I have voiced suspicions before because of his votes on Araris, but I'm just nervous that he could be right about Araris so I haven't voted for him yet. I've been going back and forth on which of them I suspect more. I also think we should actually try to decide who we're going to lynch before the last half hour of the cycle, since last time we were all arguing until pretty late and then Winter got dead because we never decided on a clear target. Macen(I still want to hear more from you though). Adamir.

 

 I would like to hear everyone's opinions of Adamir's actions so far, and if you think he's innocent, give your reasons. If you think he's guilty, say in your own words why instead of bandwagoning.

[Adamir he/him]

Here's my reasons for my strong belief in Adamir's innocence - I happen to be Adamir, and I freely admit that I have a suit of Shardplate. Now having said that, the Eliminators will most certainly avoid killing me, allowing you to waste two cycles worth of lynches when you should be trying to lynch the Eliminators. For this cycle and the next, there will be no discussion because you will all post "Adamir is guilty" and leave it at that, during which the Eliminators make two more kills. Villagers with Shardplate can make the game harder for the village, because the village has to waste two cycles. Now could I request a more reasonable course of action, such as an ardent scanning me and then telling Clanky the scan results?

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Do you think we have another Ardent though? It seems kinda unlikely. We could go after someone else this cycle, but if we don't have another Ardent, then you could just be an eliminator trying to stall us killing you as long as possible. There's also the chance you don't have any Shardplate.

[Amanuensis he/him]

@Clanky, I didn't mean to say that because you were right about Hero you were more likely to be right about someone else. I meant that if you (for whatever reason) somehow did know for a fact that even one more person was a Noble that I would have someone else I can trust and that'd help me narrow down my suspicions.

 

@Adamir: I personally haven't had any strong feelings towards you being an eliminator, which if I've learned anything this game means you likely are one, and honestly after your declaration of being a Shardbearer and how it'd be stupid for us to waste two cycles trying to lynch you, I'm tempted to vote for you because to me that seems like a really great lie for an Eliminator to make, if it were to be fallen for.

[Adamir he/him]

You are dooming yourselves. Which is why I feel compelled to intervene in my own fate - a villager unwilling to make the greatest sacrifices for the village is no true villager. And what virtual sacrifice is greater than giving up the Shard for the duration of the game? Well, quite a few things, but that isn't the point. I pledge that I will stay offline for the next week; you can check my profile to see when I was 'last active'. Before I do so, I would like to ask whether or not it is against the spirit of the game.

 

I'll log on once before the cycle ends to see where I can put my vote to avoid a tie, should one arise, then go offline for a week.

Edited September 6, 2015 by Adamir

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm not convinced of Adamir's innocence, but neither am I convinced of his guilt. I have to go, and I won't be able to get on again befor the end of this cycle. You guys can decide whether to lynch him or not. Haelbarde has grown more suspicious to me in his silence, so if you choose not to lynch Adamir, I'd go for him maybe. Adamir. Haelbarde.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I am going to move my vote from PK to Adamir. I am thoroughly confused as to how going inactive for a week is supposed to be helpful to the village. Additionally, if he really does have shardplate, regardless of his alignment, once it is gone then we can have a better discussion where the best lynch choice doesn't threaten to set us back a whole cycle of discussion. Just because we lynch Adamir this cycle, if he survives, doesn't mean that we need to  vote for him again next cycle, especially since we will have more info from the eliminator kill.

 

I also want to call out Shallan a bit, for something she did last cycle. She said that she would come on in the last bit of the cycle and place a vote. That doesn't seem like very villager friendly behavior to me, since if anyone disagrees with that vote then we can't really factor that into the day cycle discussion. So why, Shallan, did you decide that it was best to wait until the end of the cycle to vote?

[Renegade he/him]

58 minutes left!

 

Also, as to inactivity: While I can't prohibit anyone from going inactive for an entire week, as it could be a legitimate strategy, I do not think it would be in the nature of the game to be inactive from the entire site simply for the sake of this game.  Of course, it is ultimately up to you whether or not you'd like to pursue such a strategy.

[Adamir he/him]

Good point - I was going with that strategy to disqualify myself from suspicion for that week, as it would be literally pointless to lynch someone who is completely unable to vote, influence others or, in the case of Eliminators, kill. Then again, it would be against the spirit of the game. With the way things are looking, I am going to get lynched, and am currently not sure whether tying the vote is likely to make me look more suspicious or whether it will save my life.

 

EDIT: 4 AM here, I blame spelling and grammar errors on sleep deprivation. That, and with three votes on me, I cannot tie the vote.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Adamir

[Shallan she/her]

Ataris, it was because I wanted feedback before I placed my vote. I had talked a fair amount in my post, and I was hoping for some reactions and discussion about it before I placed my vote.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

I'm gonna make sure Adamir can't tie it, as a tie would not help us much. Haelbarde. Adamir.

[Haelbarde he/him]

Because I said that I would get this done today, my thoughts of the role distribution would be something along the lines of:

 

14 Brightlord/ladies

  3 Artifabrians

  3 Worldsingers

  3 Couriers

  2 Guards(wo)men

  1 Ardent

  1 Assassin

  1 Con Artist

 

It's possible that there'd be another Courier and/or Con Artist. Maybe another Worldsinger, though I don't think we've seen much action from worldsingers, so I think that'd be unlikely.

 

I also'd expect 6 conspirators:

3 Brightlord/ladies

1 Artifabrian

1 Worldsinger

1 Courier

 

It would also not surprise me if the consipirators had a set of shardplate.

 

I'll try write out and post my thoughts/feelings about the remaining players at some point today or tomorrow.

[Renegade he/him]

Time is up!  The write-up will be coming eventually.

[Renegade he/him]

Day 8: Shattered Plans

Caesarae showed up in Shardplate today, which drew a number of looks from the nobles.

“What’s with the Shardplate?” Arilir asked bluntly.  “Are you for some reason afraid that you will be the next one on the chopping block?”

“By the Tranquiline Halls, no,” Caesarae said, crossing his arms.  “I’m just being safe.  I will not let my fate be like the others who were killed in the waning hours of light.”

“Well, if you haven’t noticed,” Arilir countered, pointing at the sky, “it isn’t exactly nighttime yet.”

“Yeah, so what?” Caesarae said tersely.  “Day becomes night faster than you know it.  Judging from how long it’s taken us to just kill two conspirators, it’ll take weeks or even months for us to catch all of them.”

“No thanks to those who are being too quiet,” Bortholemew said, absently rubbing his shoulder.  Last night’s attack had not been pleasant.  “The sooner we get rid of these miscreants, the better.”  Maggus, the newcomer, opened his mouth in protest.

“You think?” Klanal rolled his eyes.  “I think Caesarae’s one of them.  A public showing of your Plate?  You’re simply doing that so we won’t try to execute you.”

“Well, in that case, it isn’t really working well!” Caesarae shouted angrily.  “I don’t want to get killed by these conspirators, so I brought my Plate with me today.  Is that too hard to comprehend?”

“Too aggressive,” Owain noted to himself, barely loud enough to hear.

“Aggressive!?” Caesarae roared.  “You’re considering killing me simply for the fact that I have Plate on me!  Do you expect me to not be outraged at this?”

“I expect you to behave in a civilized manner,” Owain said.

“My life’s on the line for a trivial matter such as this!  In no way is that civilized!”

“I’ve heard enough,” Rengar spoke, hefting his sword in one hand.  He pointed at Caesarae.  “This one is guilty of treason!”

“I am not!  This is ridiculous!  Dalinar will not stand for…”

“Quiet, you!” Rengar yelled.  “Once Rengar has made a hasty, uninformed decision, he cannot be swayed!  Now stand down!”

“No!” Caesarae shouted in response.  “You’re mad!”

“I said, STAND DOWN!” Rengar swung his sword with all his muscular force at Caesarae’s chest, knocking the man back a good ten feet, and causing the Plate to leak stormlight.

Fearspren sprang up around Caesarae as he backed off from Rengar, looking around for an escape route.  They had gathered just outside of Dalinar’s warcamp, close to the Shattered Plains, so he could either head northward or southward.  Going south would be heading towards Sadeas’ warcamp, which might implicate him as being a conspirator.  So, north it was.

As Caesarae took off, a huge wall of flesh crashed into him, sending him sprawling to the ground.  Rengar had apparently taken note of where Caesarae was heading in his hesitation, and rushed towards him.  The Plate absorbed most of the blow, but pain blossomed from his back and neck, on which he landed.

Rengar struck again and again, systematically shattering the different pieces of Plate.  As he finally broke the final piece of Plate, he raised his sword to kill Caesarae.

“Rengar!” a voice shouted.  “What is the meaning of this?”

“Erm, Dalinar,” Rengar said, lowering his sword to his side.  “We found another one of those conspirators you wanted.”

Dalinar took a look at Caesarae’s bruised body, and glared at Rengar.  “There is little evidence of it, I think,” Dalinar said.  “From now on, you are only to execute those whom I’ve approved are traitors to my Princedom.  Understand?”

Rengar mumbled, nodding.  And with that, Caesarae stood, battered and bruised.

---

Vote Tally
Caesarae (3): Arilir, Klanal, Owain
Sheon Idris (1): Night Vote
Bortholemew (1): Maggus

Caesarae was a Shardbearer, and survived the execution!

Night 8 has begun!  The turn will end in 23 hours and 3 minutes.  Good luck!

Edited October 28, 2016 by Alvron