Long Game 12: Shadows of Elantris

[Emerald101 he/him]

Just getting on to say that I'm going camping, and so I won't be on Tomorrow or the day after. I'll be back after that though.

 

Edit: punctuation

Edited June 4, 2015 by Emerald101

[Kasimir he/him]

This is the last report from Elantris for the day. [Due to timezone issues.]
 
1. Bort did not come back online after Ren and co. came down on him. Neo, Phatt, and Ren all dogpiled votes on him just in case he was miraculously taken by the Shaod.
 
2. As of this point of writing, it is ambiguous if Zas or Bort will be scanned. There are good reasons for scanning both; to say the least, Bort's interesting behaviour.
 
3. Bort cannot yet be Hoed. He has only been poisoned.
 
4. Ren would like to remind everyone not to simply rely on Priest scans. They can be useful, especially if they turn up a Cultist, but otherwise, what we need is discussion.
 
This is Kas, bringing you the latest news, live, from Elantris, as the sun goes down. We'll be back tomorrow! Thank you for watching Elantris Live.

[Herowannabe he/him]

3. Bort cannot yet be Hoed. He has only been poisoned.

Actually, it is possible for a player to be poisoned AND taken by the Shaod at the same time, and nobody would know it until something like this happens. 

 

However, to be clear, Bort was NOT made a Hoed.

[Seonid he/him]

I'm not sure what Bort is playing at. He knows, or should know, that we are getting news from Elantris, so his votes there can't be hidden. So voting for Phatt seems like a surefire way to get him lynched. Unless he figures the gig is already up and wanted to do something useful to his team before getting lynched.

 

If I can offer advice to Phatt, scan Bort. Zas will still be there in a cycle or two to scan later, but Bort leaves Elantris soon. I'm about 80% certain he's an Eliminator already, but it would be nice to be sure.

 

EDIT: spelling

Edited June 4, 2015 by Seonid

[Kasimir he/him]

Actually, it is possible for a player to be poisoned AND taken by the Shaod at the same time, and nobody would know it until something like this happens. 

 

However, to be clear, Bort was NOT made a Hoed.

2. They will be notified for real. It will be revealed in the write up too.

Almighty GM, you said this when I asked you if people who had been poisoned, then taken by the Shaod would be notified for real. When you said it would be revealed in the write up, what did you then mean? Just to clarify?

[Herowannabe he/him]

 

Almighty GM, you said this when I asked you if people who had been poisoned, then taken by the Shaod would be notified for real. When you said it would be revealed in the write up, what did you then mean? Just to clarify?

 

My apologies. What I meant was that if someone was poisoned and then taken by the shaod for real on a following night it would show up in the writeup. If someone is poisoned and taken by the shaod at the same time there won't be anything to distinguish that both happened. Sorry about the confusion.

 

EDIT: Also,

 

GM ANNOUNCEMENT:

 

Please welcome A Smart Guy to the game. He has stepped in to take Wonko's place. Also, note the addition of Silverblade to our pinch hitter list. He will be stepping in if anyone else needs a pinch hitter.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Herowannabe

[Kasimir he/him]

My apologies. What I meant was that if someone was poisoned and then taken by the shaod for real on a following night it would show up in the writeup. If someone is poisoned and taken by the shaod at the same time there won't be anything to distinguish that both happened. Sorry about the confusion.

No harm done. Thanks for the clarification, GM Almighty!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, it seems we have our first eliminator. Now anyone squeamish about voting with shoddy reasoning can just go through things around Winter and Meta to find somebody to kill. I am a bit interested in one thing, and maybe I missed it, but shouldn't we have some sort of list of converts by now?

Also, Wilson, I read your analysis from day 4 and found it interesting that you are connecting people being on 17th shard with people being present in the eliminator doc. I suspect that there are equal numbers of people that are on your list that simply had a tab open while AFK as there are people that read the thread while not logged in at all. I guess the whole concept of using info about who is online and when feels a bit funny, and although it is part of the game, I'm not quite sure what the connection you were trying to make is. Do you think you could clarify your intention from that post? Or was that bit more of an info dump?

[Kasimir he/him]

Well, it seems we have our first eliminator. Now anyone squeamish about voting with shoddy reasoning can just go through things around Winter and Meta to find somebody to kill. I am a bit interested in one thing, and maybe I missed it, but shouldn't we have some sort of list of converts by now?

We do. It was clearly stated in the thread. But summarised for your convenience:

Night One: Zas

Night Two: Luckat (saved by Korathi pendant)

Night Three: Luckat

Night Four: PAFO.

 

Edit: Also, oh man! We're running through pinch-hitters like Vin burns atium!

Edited June 4, 2015 by Kasimir

[little wilson she/her]

Also, Wilson, I read your analysis from day 4 and found it interesting that you are connecting people being on 17th shard with people being present in the eliminator doc. I suspect that there are equal numbers of people that are on your list that simply had a tab open while AFK as there are people that read the thread while not logged in at all. I guess the whole concept of using info about who is online and when feels a bit funny, and although it is part of the game, I'm not quite sure what the connection you were trying to make is. Do you think you could clarify your intention from that post? Or was that bit more of an info dump?

 

More of just an info dump than anything else, though with the exact plan being what it was, I suspect that the person who she was planning with was checking the site fairly often and had been on on their own account recently even if they were using private browsing right then. 

 

It's not about drawing connections solely based on that list. But I jotted it down because it could be important combined with other things.

[Kasimir he/him]

Meta. Do you happen to be able to talk discreetly, whether through a PM or otherwise? I've thought about it, and I think you need to know who the Lovers are.
 
Sorry, Lovers. I know I indicated I was willing to go down without revealing your identities. But as a Korathi Priest, Meta can't be converted by the Gyorn, so you're safe on that front. Can't help you if you're a mixed pairing, but the odds are, you're Citizens. And given new information I've just received, I think this has to be done.

[Metacognition he/him]

I don't have Seon and no one has gotten a hold of me with a Seon yet tonight, but it's still early. 

 

I'm still taking requests for scans. I don't want to reveal who I'll scan out of the list that's building up, so the Cultists won't know who else I'm scanning, but I have a pretty good idea on who's next. I'll say this much, I'm not scanning Kas or Twei!

 

Also, I agree with Ren: don't rely on me to find the Cultists alone. So far, I have a 33% record for hitting a Cultist so far this game, so just waiting for me isn't going to get the job done. Also, if the Cultists wind up taking me out, then you'd have to start going through details and deductions again anyways! No reason to let that slip now. This isn't a Follow-the-Cop style of scenario*. The Cultists can still take us out, kind of like what it looked like they tried with Phatt. We still need everyone active and helping out. 

 

I am kind of concerned about the people we have that are dropping out of the game. Was Aonar or Wonko in any danger of hitting the 2 cycle limit yet? I hope people aren't just dropping out because of all this.

 

*Follow-the-Cop, for those of you who don't know, is a technique where a good role steps forward and is then protected. Then everything, all the information, the decisions, etc. all flow through that person. It's not really any fun for anyone and I, for one, didn't out myself just to see the game devolve into that. 

[Kasimir he/him]

Raw Vote Count:

Kas (0): M'Hael<1>, M'Hael<2>

Winter (17): Meta, Kipper<1>, Winter<1>, Wilson²<2>, Jain, Seonid<2>, Araris, M'Hael<3>, dowanx, Twei<2>, Hufflepuff, Emerald<2>, Alv, Kipper<2>, King Wyrm, Claincy, Kas<2>, Luckat

Meta (0): Kas<1>, Twei<1>, Wilson²<1>, Seonid<1>, Emerald<1>

Phat (2): Winter<2>, Bort

Bort(3): Neo, Phat, Ren

Final Vote Count:

Kae (Winter Cloud): 17 (Edrab Leah, Jain, Gerald Hobbes, Edaan, Down, Arfear Quinn, Hene Bata, Duke Pifferdan, Clancy, Kaian, Kiireon, MenE, Nathanael, Sheon Idris, Tehen, Liala)

Borter Clams (Bort): 4 (Kae, Neo, Riingar, Sienene)

Sienene (phattemer): 1 (Borter Clams)

 

-

 

My general conclusions are as follows: it's interesting to note that our Prince/Princess does not seem to have struck this cycle. Presumably, the Cultists don't have both a Keeper of the Secret Tunnels and a Prince/Princess. If not, it would be an easy task to Hoe Phat, what with Bort's vote and inactives like Karlin not having voted. [To clarify: 1 Keeper + Prince/Princess votejacking Karlin/Ostrich + Bort = Hoed!Phat.]

 

I think our Duke/Duchess has hit Winter and redirected her vote to Bort. Thanks for that save, whoever you are.

 

In addition, at least at this point, I think it's interesting that the Prince/Princess is lying low. While it's plausible that the Prince/Princess could've tried to votejack one of the 17 like Luckat, it seems unlikely to me. They'd found a sweet spot votejacking Ostrich or Karlin, and especially Ostrich has never posted in the thread. Why be exotic and find someone else? It looks more to be like the Prince/Princess declined to participate in votejacking shenanigans this time around. (Another possibility is, as Wilson previously suggested, that Bort is the Cultist Prince/Princess. In which case, he can't actually votejack as he's stuck in Elantris and everyone in Elantris who could vote has voted. Note that because he has been Hoed, Zas cannot vote. But for that, I suspect we'll have to wait on Phat, since that was the whole point of checking Bort into Hotel Elantris.)

 

Last thing of note: none of our own Keepers struck this time. But then, they really had no reason to.

 

Edit: Y u do dis, colour editor?!

Edited June 4, 2015 by Kasimir

[Surgebound Rainspren he/him]

Actually, it is possible for a player to be poisoned AND taken by the Shaod at the same time,

Anyone who manages to get both of these either wins the lifetime achievement for worst luck in Sel 

[Kasimir he/him]

Anyone who manages to get both of these either wins the lifetime achievement for worst luck in Sel

You called?

[Wyrmhero he/him]

I am kind of concerned about the people we have that are dropping out of the game. Was Aonar or Wonko in any danger of hitting the 2 cycle limit yet? I hope people aren't just dropping out because of all this.

 

I think it's just that the possibility of people being able to replace you has meant that people are less worried about not being able to play after they sign up. I also wouldn't discount Eliminators dropping out, whoever said that, as people can now take advantage of the system to play when they wouldn't normally be able to.

 

So, currently confirmed by Meta: Meta, Winter, Kas, Twei. Considering he found us an Eliminator, I am inclined to believe him. I doubt he would throw a player under a non-existent bus just to win, after all.

 

Confirmed by Phattemer: Phatt, Renegade, Wilson, Neodynium. Wonko has been helping him, and so can probably be cleared. phattemer we are assuming to be truthful, and I will assume people are correct in that assumption.

 

Confirmed by the lynch: Locke, Winter, Walin, Mailli, Feligon. While the lynch has killed four innocents, I'm inclined to believe it's on our side, since it's also killed a Cultist.

 

Just going through Winter's posts, grabbing all that interest me:

 

Day 1: Asks phattemer why he thinks Mckdee is a debtor if suspicious.

Day 2: Thinks that the quasi-inactives have to go. Tries to get suspicion thrown on Wilson, but doesn't vote. Then starts looking at Downx, Wonko, Mckdee and Phatt. She explains away Downx as 'having a quick, logical reason', and Mckdee as trying to avoid themselves getting lynched. Phatt she proclaims suspicion of. Also jokingly accuses Kipper as a Gyorn. Winter did, however, fall into the Eliminator-Stops-to-Gloat trap, where she made a big thing about a sudden bandwagon. I therefore do not really think that any of the guys on the bandwagon are likely to be Eliminators (that is, wilson, Wonko, Dowanx, Mckeedee, phattemer)

Night 2: Responds to Wilson's pointed-out people. Clanky she red-texts. Mostly she tells people to speak up. She allowed Luckat to slide with 'maybe some in real life reasons', whereas Clanky she accused due to his RP in the second Cycle. Mailliw she said offered useful advice.

Day 3: Winter responds to Wonko's comment about having a Seon. She says she may have something to say on it later. She does not.

Night 3: Says she understands why Mailliw was lynched, so didn't say anything. Also does a delicious mass-player-analysis, which I will cross-examine separately.

Day 4: Says Meta isn't suspicious. Claims the Gyorn is an experienced player. She is then discovered and troll-mode engaged.

 

So overall, it's probably what we would expect from an Eliminator. A lot of stuff thrown around, but nothing that really sticks. We only have one confirmation of alignment on the people she accused, so there's not too much to go on with it, but just from this, we ave four 'uncleared' people that she has pointed out: Clanky, Dowanx, Luckat and Mckeedee.

 

So, analysing Winter's analysis. I'm going to put people into three camps: People Winter said were legit, that she was unsure of, and that she found suspicious.

 

Legit

Jain - She doesn't go into detail here, just saying she finds him a little suspicious but thinks he's a Villager. Potentially doesn't have a reason but wants to put him in the legit camp?

Mckeedee - She is fairly certain he remained on the side of the righteous after the small mix-up that happened. But she then contradicts herself and says 'who knows'. This possibly is consistent, considering she said she thought he just didn't want to be lynched earlier.

Kasimir - Says there's lots of discussion going on and that she trusts him. Judging from what Kas has said and done so far, I agree with her.

little wilson - Again, another she trusts implicitly.

Metacognition - Well, we know what those good reasons were now...

 

Unsure

Haelbarde - She said she was unsure despite the fact that he apparently was rather useful. I admit that the links would be a good way of appearing more Villager-y without actually doing anything to help the Village.

Kipper - She notes his claimed role, and that's about it. No information as to whether she trusts him or not.

Clanky - She says she doesn't distrust him, changing her mind about the bandwagon. She says its unlikely the Cultists would mess with it unless another of them were targets. The other people up for the chop that Day were Orlok, Mckeedee, Kipper, Araris Valerian, Pifferdoo and Wonko the Sane.

Dowanx - Same reasons as Clanky, which tells us very little without providing any more evidence.

Alvron - She has no idea about him.

Araris Valerian - She says he is contributing to discussion, and not much else.

The Honey Badger - No idea.

Pifferdoo/Emerald - She neglects to comment due to the new player, despite the fact that she has all his previous work to judge the character on, despite the new player.

Claincy - States that him having real-life stuff going on is a pain, but doesn't comment on his actions.

ostrichofevil - No idea, says he's inactive.

Karlin - No idea, says he's inactive.

Aonar/Wyrmhero - Says she will have to go back over posts.

Seonid - Says there's been some helpful stuff there, but nothing much to go on.

Twei - Says there's nothing to go on.

Wonko the Sane - As above.

Luckat - States she was lurking before Winter poked her, but nothing much to go on.

 

Suspicious

Bort - She says she agrees with Wilson that he's probably Cultist. She also thinks we are missing confirming evidence. Considering that she was a Cultist, I doubt he is too.

 

So, overall, let's cross out the people (well, person) she has flagged up as suspicious and the ones we are fairly sure about. Thus we are left with: Jain, Mckeedee, Haelbarde, Kipper, Clanky, Dowanx, Alvron, Araris Valerian, Pifferdoo/Emerald, Claincy, ostrichofevil, Karlin, Aonar/Wyrmhero, Seonid, Twei, Luckat.

 

Of these, I am going to cross out the ones who were a part of the bandwagon which she spoke out against afterwards but then corrected herself with later. We are left with: Jain, Haelbarde, Kipper, Alvron, Araris Valerian, Pifferdoo/Emerald, Claincy, ostrichofevil, Karlin, Aonar/Wyrmhero, Seonid, Twei, Luckat. Notably, a lot of these people she declined to comment on.

 

I find her trust of Jain suspicious, as she never gives a real reason for it, as well as her lack of comment on Pifferdoo. The people who are inactive but haven't been replaced are also suspicious, as that implies they are working behind the scenes. I couldn't really comment on the people themselves though, since I haven't been paying the greatest attention to the game since it started, what with exams and all. I'll have another think about it later or tomorrow.

 

And I've been talking for a while (and this post has taken a bloody long time, what with finding information and getting distracted/having lunch), so I'll let someone else take the reins for a bit

 

Edit: Missed Neodynium's seeking.

Edited June 4, 2015 by Wyrmhero

[Haelbarde he/him]

I appologize for not contributing a whole lot the last week - last week of university for the semester. Now it's just exams :/ That, and I got distracted failing at writing poems at Kas... I still need to tie up the loose end that is reparations for mispronouncing Wilson's character's name, but I'll try and you know, actually analyse stuff. Re: links. Ultimately, I put them there mostly for personal use - do people even use them?

[Claincy he/him]

I appologize for not contributing a whole lot the last week - last week of university for the semester. Now it's just exams :/ That, and I got distracted failing at writing poems at Kas... I still need to tie up the loose end that is reparations for mispronouncing Wilson's character's name, but I'll try and you know, actually analyse stuff. Re: links. Ultimately, I put them there mostly for personal use - do people even use them?

I've used them now and then. They make it a lot easier to look things up.

 

I'm going to be away till the end of the next day cycle. I may well be able to get on long enough to read the forums and maybe vote. But I certainly won't be able to do any detailed analysis. Sorry.

 

My current biggest suspicions are for Surgebound rainspren and Ostrich. Both have been on the very verge of inactivity without being replaced by a pinch hitter. Rainspren has posted once (after 2 cycles), without any real information or significance and I don't recall Ostrich ever posting. I don't see anyone sitting that far back in the shadows without posting anything to the thread unless they had some reason to want to avoid attention. Unless you're hiding something there is no good reason not to at least post a reason why you can't be active. Sorry I don't have more detailed insight at this juncture. :/ If I do notice anything else while I'm away I'll do my best to post it.

[little wilson she/her]

I plan on going over my PM with Winter with a fine-tooth comb later on. Hopefully I can do that tonight, before the rollover, but I'm not going to promise anything. She talked a lot more in that PM than she should've and I'm certain that if her teammates knew she was saying as muc has she was, they wouldn't be happy. It might not reveal anything, but maybe it will.

 

In the meantime, I'd like to caution again for everyone to beware of anyone who contacts them with Seon Ien. If this person has been scanned and confirmed by Phatt or Meta, it's fine. But if the person hasn't been, don't reveal anything to them. Roles, people you've been in contact with. Nothing. It's not certain that they're a Cultist, but it's highly likely. If you have received Seon Ien and you are a villager, request to be scanned. You might even want to say that you have it. Or get in contact with Meta. Or pass it to Meta. That would be even more ideal. Not that I want to encourage a follow the cop strategy, because I don't, but he really should have a Seon and be able to communicate. We all just need to be discussing here in the thread in the meantime.

 

Wyrm, thank you for that analysis. I have two things I'd like to say about it. One, Wonko has not been confirmed and while I believe he is not a Cultist, I still think he could be the Gyorn. Two, Clanky did not participate in either bandwagon (though he did vote for Maill). Winter (who I seem to recall was referring to the first two bandwagons when she said that) got that wrong.

[Kasimir he/him]

A minor tactical note:
 
I'd like to request other holders of poison vials--if possible--hold their fire and save on those vials for the time being. Here's why:
 
1. As I understand it, Elantris is still tied up with the Zas-Bort affair, so it may not be the case that Phat can get to the people you've sent tonight in a timely fashion--before they check out of Hotel Elantris again.
 
2. I suspect there is a Cultist Pirate, although for obvious reasons, I cannot be sure of it. As I understand it, if there is a Cultist Pirate, then we have no way to defend against their 'kill-with-me' ability. Korathi pendants and Jindo do not protect against a Pirate kill-with-me. Nothing can.
 
Except: it is possible to use a poison vial to role-block a Pirate, in a very limited way. A poisoned Pirate loses any Elantris-external hostages they might have and if they pick a hostage again, the hostage has to be within Elantris. This, at least, seems to help us minimise the damage a Cultist Pirate could wreak on us. (Sorry, Elantrians. Best idea I have at the moment :/ )
 
We mightn't even need to resort to that, but I figure it's best to have the poison for a hairy situation than to spend it too early innundating Elantris.

[Herowannabe he/him]

GM ANNOUNCEMENT

I have real life plans this evening, and will be home a little late. I have not heard back from Tulir yet to see if he can cover both writeups and and the PMs and etc, so just to be safe this night cycle will be extended by 1 hour, and end at 10:00pm MDT (8 hours from right now.)

Thank you.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Just popping in to remind everybody in the game to treat each other politely and with respect, and to throw a link to the Etiquette Policy for everybody to review. Remember these are just games, and the point is to have fun! If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to shoot me a PM if necessary!

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

I just remembered that the King/Queen can set up games and such to select their heir. Wonder what kind of contest Wilson has set for us...

[little wilson she/her]

I just remembered that the King/Queen can set up games and such to select their heir. Wonder what kind of contest Wilson has set for us...

 

Personally, I hope you never have to find out.

[Seonid he/him]

I suspect they will be frustrating at present and hilariously fun in hindsight.

But that's an odd question to be asking right now. It's almost like you're certain she's going to be targeted tonight.