Quick Fix Game 7: Living (and Dying) Rough

[the winter system]

So basicaly spencer is claiming that Joe is a lawman. Right after Joe gave a HUGE info dump and was extremely useful. Does anyone not think this is supsicious?

[Clanky]

Oh it is definitely very suspicious. However if we just all stop our other votes to jump onto Spencer then we would be helping the lawmen because then we wouldn't really be using our votes to promote discussion. He is a better target for a Smoking gun I think. 

[the winter system]

But then we run the risk of having a lawman or wildcard messing up the whole "shoot Spencer." It seems a risk to me.

[Emerald101]

@clanky wyrm said in a previous cycle that the smoking gun wouldn't kill the user in that case.

[Clanky]

Thanks Emerald I guess I missed that.

[the winter system]

If the user did what?

[Emerald101]

If the target of the smoking gun was lynched/lawmen killed before the gun went off.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Actually, I'm kind of glad that Spencer is accusing me. That just shows that I'm on the right track, so they're willing to reveal one of their members in order to discredit me, especially since they've probably figured out I'm Koloss blooded, so they can't quite kill me just yet. Unless it was the Lawmen who killed Mailliw, meaning they have a spinner. That worries me.

 

On a side note: as much as i want to think otherwise, I'm starting to wonder if Haelbarde is a lawman, and is being "helpful" in order to mask his true motives.

That's a very roundabout way of casting suspicion on someone, especially someone who is Logically proven Innocent.  So are you the fourth Lawman as I was worried about?

 

 

But then we run the risk of having a lawman or wildcard messing up the whole "shoot Spencer." It seems a risk to me.

Now that Spencer has basically revealed himself, we can simply pulse him over and over again until we don't have another lawman to lynch. I'm assuming that the pulser who hit emerald is a Scoundrel, since they hit Emerald, who I'm thinking more and more is a Lawman, but that worries me. If Spencer is the fourth Lawman, who isn't a Lawman of the four I named?

 

I've been going back and forth on this for about an hour, and I think Rainspren isn't the lawman like I thought, (Unless there are 5 Lawmen, in which case we're screwed.)

 

I'm going to keep my vote on Alv for now.

[the winter system]

I think that Alvron is the not lawman. Your reason for not trusting him was innactivity and I know the source of it.

I think.

[A Joe in the Bush]

I think that Alvron is the not lawman. Your reason for not trusting him was innactivity and I know the source of it.

I think.

Are you sure? If you're right, then it's rainspren, Emerald, Spencer and Ostrich, and that doesn't seem like the kind of team Wyrm would keep.

 

But I'll work with you for now and Retract from Alvron. I'll vote for Spencer then.

[the winter system]

Good point. Though maybe spencer posted without thought or consulting his fellow docmates. We have to be right on at least two, maybe?

[spencer12347]

I haven't really been following this game that well and I followed Joe because he picked the name the suspicious man. When i got the pm back, i was surprised and like I said i haven't been following this that well but i was thinking on who to tell who i can trust. I feel like i was going to die next cycle so I thought i would just give all the information that I have and it was this. Do what you want with it, I'm voting for you The Only Joe. 

[the winter system]

Sooo, who did you follow last cycle?

[Lightsworn Panda]

I haven't really been following this game that well and I followed Joe because he picked the name the suspicious man. When i got the pm back, i was surprised and like I said i haven't been following this that well but i was thinking on who to tell who i can trust. I feel like i was going to die next cycle so I thought i would just give all the information that I have and it was this. Do what you want with it, I'm voting for you The Only Joe. 

 

...

 

So let me get this straight. You were following Joe with Tineye powers, and your results were inconclusive? So shouldn't that mean he wasn't attempting to kill someone, Spencer?

[spencer12347]

Winter cloud. I messed up on my pm and before I could fix it the cycle ended.

Panda the pm directly said that Joe killed doc piffington that is all the information that I have.

[Haelbarde]

Actually, I'm kind of glad that Spencer is accusing me. That just shows that I'm on the right track, so they're willing to reveal one of their members in order to discredit me, especially since they've probably figured out I'm Koloss blooded, so they can't quite kill me just yet. Unless it was the Lawmen who killed Mailliw, meaning they have a spinner. That worries me.

Bother, I kept reading over the part of the spinner role which says it goes through Koloss-blooded. I reckon this is probable. A pair of eliminators, one being a pulser could have also killed him, but I think that is unlikely. More on that later.

 

Now that Spencer has basically revealed himself, we can simply pulse him over and over again until we don't have another lawman to lynch. I'm assuming that the pulser who hit emerald is a Scoundrel, since they hit Emerald, who I'm thinking more and more is a Lawman, but that worries me. If Spencer is the fourth Lawman, who isn't a Lawman of the four I named?

 We could only do that if we had 2 pulsers, and I'm not sure we do. You'd need two, because they'd need to alternate, giving the other time to recharge. Also, I don't think either of them can take actions this turn. More on that later.

 

Are you sure? If you're right, then it's rainspren, Emerald, Spencer and Ostrich, and that doesn't seem like the kind of team Wyrm would keep.

 

But I'll work with you for now and Retract from Alvron. I'll vote for Spencer then.

 I'm felt like Emerald wasn't a lawman, though not sure after his last post.

 

---

Well. Ultimately, if spencer dies, we find out an eliminator - if he dies and is revealed to be an eliminator, well, we've taken one out. Conversely, if he is revealed to be a scoundrel tineye, then spencers comments will have been verified and we'll know with certainty that Joe is an eliminator. Before the end of cycle, I think I'm going try think that option through, and post something for the benefit of whoever survives this cycle.

 

---

 

I didn't want to bring this up earlier, because I felt it might be detrimental in my attempt to inspire some more discussion, but it's also important knowledge that needs to be put out there, so I'm saying it now, so there's still plenty of time to discuss.

 

If Emerald is telling the truth about being pulsed, then there were in fact 2 pulsers who used their ability last cycle. This would mean there are 4 players without votes. Pulsers, if you were scoundrels, seriously bad timing/aiming. If you were eliminators, well played.

 

Unless there's a third pulser who happens to be scoundrel, I don't think there are any pulsers free this cycle, Joe.

 

EDIT:

Thus far, we have yet to get votes from Alvron, Surgebound, Ostrich or Clanky. Anyone who votes, and has their vote not show up is either a pulser or was pulsed. This would seem to imply (at least to my mind) that our two pulsers are in those 4. I think I trust Clanky for the moment, so I'm thinking it could be Surgbound & Ostrich maybe. (Note that I've been presuming that the lawmen got both pulsers, and that they've plotted out an endgame that started from last cycles actions).

 

Ostrich hasn't posted here since Cycle 1, is the other thing to note.

 

EDIT 2:

Winter, thoughts on Jain (Lightsworn Panda)? Would you agree with Joe's sentiments?

Jain (Lightsworn Panda)

All of his votes have been for people who haven't talked much yet. He's been trying to foster discussion the whole game, and since Lawmen probably don't want to foster discussion, I think he's innocent. Plus he's been evil like what, twice? He's not very good at staying hidden while being evil, and I'm usually pretty good at figuring out when he is evil. And because Winter faux-defended him (See above), I'm inclined to think that He and Winter are innocent.

Also, peoples thoughts on Feligon's last post?

Alvron. Sorry I don't have time to explain my reasoning, but it's about the same as joe's.

Edited April 20, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Emerald101]

just getting on to say I'm in favor of killing spencer, because it'll give us a better idea of where we stand.

 

Additional comment:

 

I'm unsure who did it, and I honestly don't care who did it, but I find to be in rather bad taste for somebody to have downvoted my post on page two. I was speaking up about something I honestly have a suspicion about, as much as I would like to think otherwise. This is a game primarily about lies and deceit, after all.

Edited April 20, 2015 by Emerald101

[spencer12347]

Guys use my death to find the lawmen. 

[Emerald101]

I really wish there was you could prove you're telling the truth. It'd make things sooo much easier right now.

 

Edit: thanks to whoever upvoted that post i was talking about.

Edited April 20, 2015 by Emerald101

[Haelbarde]

Only way would be to for a scoundrel seeker (again, presuming we have one) to seek him this cycle. But that's probably going to be too late.

[Lightsworn Panda]

Thank you for the clarification, spencer. Also, the Cycle isn't over until tomorrow. You can still survive the lynch.

 

EDIT 2:
Winter, thoughts on Jain (Lightsworn Panda)? Would you agree with Joe's sentiments?

 

Winter will probably disagree, considering how I somehow managed to slip right under his nose in LG10 when I was Odium.   Still got caught, sadly.

 

I know this isn't solid evidence, but I'd just like to point out that I was good 11 times in a row (seriously, check my SE progress). 

[Haelbarde]

Preface:
I feel like parts of this, particularly in relation to Joe, are built from my own fears of what people could be planning. I've built a case against him, but its based on things he has opportunity to do in the position he's in. It's not built on what I'd consider hard evidence. The purpose of this post is to put all my thoughts and concerns out in the open, so that I can offer part of my opinion in the next round should I die.

 

This is me having a think about 'What if Spencer is telling the truth? What if The Only Joe was a lawman?'

 

Apologies in advanced if this is the sort of thing that you just don't do. I didn't know, I'm new to this.

 

---

First off. I want to make it clear that in all this, it is Winter I trust. (I am going to be so annoyed if you're a lawman, Winter) I've never felt certain about The Only Joe. Winter seems to agree with Joe, so I'm going along with it. Please don't prove me wrong Joe.
 
Now, what I want to do here is to comment on my own personal suspicions on who I can trust and who I cannot. I also want to write out a consideration of the information, should it turn out spencer is indeed a scoundrel tineye. I do not really expect to make it to the next round, though particularly not after this post. In case I don't make it, I would like to have contributed to the discussion for the next cycle, and in some way assist any scoundrels to move to the next cycle.
 
So. Let's say spencer gets lynched this turn. We find out one of two things:

• He's a scoundrel, and thus presumably a tineye, and this means Joe is a lawman.
• He's a lawman, and then presumable Joe is indeed a scoundrel.

If Spencers a lawmen, then chances are I'll make it to next round. Maybe. I'd expect one of Joe, Winter, or myself to fall. Two if the lawmen have the smoking gun. In this case, Joe's suspicions are probably fairly accurate regarding the lawman. Regardless, we win ourselves another cycle. Not too concerned about how the next cycle goes if this happens.
 
But now let us consider the possibility that spencer is telling the truth.
 
It puts the content of Joe's analysis post entirely in question. It flips it on its head even. Suddenly those in red are more likely to be scoundrels, and those in black and green more likely to be lawmen. Probably. There is the possibility he could have put a fellow lawman as red, to sacrifice them next cycle potentially, and prove his innocence.
 
Spoiler tags to save space. Note that I've coloured the names based on who I trust and don't trust. I think most of them reflect my thoughts either way (if Spencer is scoundrel or not), apart from The Only Joe, who I'll probably trust if spencers a lawman, and who I won't if spencer is not.
 

First I am going to consider those in green.
 

The Only Joe

Well, obviously in this scenario, he is a lawman. Not much to say here. Each of us obviously trusts ourselves. Of course he put himself in green.

 

Oh, I will say one thing. Let's assume that as there are 8 different roles and that since there are 17 people it would make sense to see each ability represented twice, with 1 spare person. Well thus far, we've not seen anything that disagrees with this. Two lurchers, a spinner, a rioter, a Koloss-blood and a roleless. . This means we would expect the remaining 11 people to have the following roles: 2 archivists, 2 pulsers, 2 seekers,  2 tineyes, a 2nd koloss-blood, a 2nd rioter, and a 2nd spinner.

 

So, it seems we have a lawman spinner (who managed to kill mailliw73), though it's not impossible it was a scoundrel spinner with the smoking gun. We also seem to have 2 pulsers who used their ability to take out two people this cycle. Thus we are left with the seekers, the tineyes, the archivists, and the 2nd koloss-blood, and rioter. Spencer claims to be a tineye. I'm deciding to take the opportunity to reveal myself as a seeker. First round, I seeked Mailliw. It came back inconclusive (roleless/Kolossblood). I seeked someone else (but not Joe) cycle 2, and came back with the same result. That person is living still. Though we can't rely on the fact that there is an even distribution of roles in this game, so far it seems to fit. If so, Joe's revelation of being a Koloss blood seems to throw a spanner in the works. Unless he's lying.

 

Ultimately, anything I have against Joe is circumstantial in nature, and from thoughts/theories I've had where I've though, 'hmm, well that'd certainly be neat'.

 

Haelbarde

Me. He has nice things to say about me! Obviously, there's nothing I can say here. If you're reading this when I'm dead, you already know I was a scoundrel. If I'm still alive, I hope that my actions have given you enough reason to trust me. If they haven't, there really is nothing I can do (other than dying) to change that.

 

Winter Cloud

So, Winter. She's been a useful player, and had some helpful comments. Also active, which is nice. Closer to the start of the game, The Only Joe said he trusted Winter and myself. He didn't really give much of a reason for trusting Winter, but anyway. My decision to trust Winter was for these reasons:

• active, helpful, ect.
• Joe said he trusted her

Now you might be thinking 'Joe trusted her, but he's an eliminator? Why are you trusting Winter then?'
Well, I didn't trust Joe at the time then, and so I thought about this.
 
If he was a scoundrel, then he probably actually does think winter is a scoundrel. In this case, both being more experienced players, I can probably trust Winter. I felt she'd probably be a scoundrel anyway.
 
Alternatively, he's a lawman, and then knows whether or not Winter and myself are lawmen. In this instance, it would make sense to ingratiate yourselves with two of the most vocal scoundrel players - This is exactly what happened in the Anniversary Game - Claincy gained Wilson's trust somehow, and then the pair of them were quite vocal throughout the game, both making it near to the end. Then they backstabbed Wilson and won the game. The only reason why Wilson survived so long was because her vocalness was a boon for the spiked. Claincy was trusted, and they could thus manipulate Wilson. I wondered if Joe could be trying to pull off a Claincy. I decided that if he was, then he would have picked two scoundrels to ally himself with - if each scoundrel trusted each other, and Joe trusted each of them, they would probably trust him back. And we have, I think. At least to this point. So far, it will have worked. Also explains why I'm still alive. Didn't really expect to be here.
 
TLDR. I trust Winter, and think you should too.

 

Lightsworn Panda

I don't know much about Lightsworn Panda.
 
What has he said in this game? He voted for Surgebound, discussed a fridge, said he gambled cycle 1, got confused by spencers announcement, and retracted his vote for spencer. (Those last 2 links aren't going to work when this gets shifted to the main topic)
 
We have 2 pulsers, as far as I can tell. He didn't say what he was doing cycle 1, and really, most people probably avoid revealling those sorts of detaills, but a pulser wouldn't use their ability unless they needed to (they lose 2 actions and the ability to vote the next round). Lightsworn could maybe be our pulser? When he voted for spencer this cycle, that in my mind took some suspicion off him. 2 pulsers seemingly used their abillity last cycle, meaning their vote doesn't count this cycle. If they do vote, their name will probably appear on the vote list, but the number will be less. His voting would show us if he was a pulser or not.

But then he retracted it, after I commented about how Spencer's death would tell us whether or not Joe can be trusted. In my mind, suspicious. He would have my vote for being lawman regardless. Pusler is just speculation. tbh, he probably isn't.

---

 
And that's the green people. Moving onto those listed in black.
 

---

Clanky

Clanky. Well, I made a big deal about nothing back in cycle two. I thought I had something, right up until Wyrmhero shot me down.
 
After that, don't have much on him. Gut feeling makes me want to trust him. Maybe I'll come back and list out his posts, and see if anything apparates.
 

Feligon

Feligon. I keep spelling it Felgion. :/ Already said that I found him a bit confusing, and his next post was a bit clearer. Hasn't contributed much, and his votes shifted around a bit, usually more part of a bandwagon. His last post:

Alvron. Sorry I don't have time to explain my reasoning, but it's about the same as joe's.

We've since moved from voting on Alvron. At that point, both Joe's and my own votes where on Alvron. Again, bandwagonning.

I don't really trust him, but I don't really have anything to go on.
 

Spencer12347

Spencer. The reason for this post. Seemingly inactive until we were certain that us scoundrels had a plan to kill some eliminators. Then you go say the thing which makes me write this, and doubt Joe all the more. Not much to say here. The time he picked was suspicious. But, he has not said anything contradictory. Better yet, now that he's said what he has, if he dies, he might have just saved us. Presuming he's telling the truth. But then, this big spiel is basically operating under the assumption that he is/was indeed telling the truth.

 

Since I redded Joe, I guess I'll green Spencer.

---

 
And that's the black people. Next up, the pink person.
 

---

Emerald

Emerald. Started off with a poke vote on me for voting for the person to die by eliminator. Joe didn't have much to say about him.

Emerald has posted in each cycle so far, and voted. He poked Ostrich, and then stuck a vote on Winter to get some coin. Confessed to the murder of phattemer, targeting him as part of the plan Joe suggested. Has had a bit more to say this cycle. Distrustful of spencer, but so is everyone. I was/am suspicious of spencer. He was also pulsed. For better or for worse, I've decided that I trust him. It's his first game, and he's not seemingly collaborated with anyone.

---

 
Finally, those listed in red.
 

---

There's a reason these people are in red. They've not necessarily contributed much. They're the easiest to throw suspicion on. Joe as an eliminator would be happy to throw suspicion on a fellow lawman, because it would validate Joe as being a scoundrel. If he then removed suspicion from any other (or even just one other) lawman/men it'd be an acceptable loss.

 

Surgebound Rainspren

Surgebound Rainspren. Hasn't really said much at all. Did not vote in cycle 1 or 2. Hasn't commented yet this cycle. Don't really know anything about him. Seemingly defended Winter at the start.

 

Alvron

Alvron. Joe said his behaviour was suspicous. Winter agreed, but believed she knew why, and so thought his behaviour was justifyable (I think). Hasn't said much. I defer to Winter on this one.

 

ostrichofevil

ostrichofevil. Sold his vote. Seemingly bought by someone and used on phattemer. Never confirmed that, nor has he posted here since. He's been online though, and made posts elsewhere (though not for two days). Don't think anyone ever owned up to buying his vote. Interestingly, it's a nice way to anonymize a lawman vote. One lawman offers it up for auction, and one of his buddies buys it. Ostrich is absolved of blame, and his fellow doesn't need to vote.

 

Not that it necessarily is relevant, but Alvron, Surgebound and Spencer were the only people to not vote first cylce, apart from myself. Doesn't mean someone who did vote couldn't have voted.

 

 

So my thoughts? I don't really trust Lightsworn Panda at all. Wouldn't be too surprised if Joe ended up a lawman, but I can't prove it or anything. Unfortunately for spencer, I feel we get the most information from his death.

 

There. Long post, sorry. Joe, if you're good, then sorry if this totally derails your work. Primarily, this is me putting everything I have into this space so that if I don't make it to the next cycle, others can review my thoughts. It also serves as an alternate analysis should you turn out evil, or even just another opinion.

 

---

One last thought. Killing Spencer gives us piece of mind. If he's an eliminator, then we finally got one. If he's not, then we've positively ID'd one. The only thing is that we then have used up a kill failing to remove an eliminator. 

 

---

EDIT: To be clear - I'm not decided on Joe atm, and I think we need kill of Spencer as it should either net us a lawman dead, or tell us someone who is. It gives us real information, rather than just a chance of finally lynching an eliminator.

 

EDIT 2:

Wyrm. You better not be trolling us by making the two characters who name themselves suspicious, and the underestimated lawman, lawmen...

Edited April 20, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Alvron]

I believe Spencer as he wouldn't gain anything by coming forward if I was a lawman.  He would've been better remaining silent as Joe had him on a 'almost' trusted list.  Given that I am not a lawman I see no advantage to Spencer revealing himself if he is a lawman as all it does is make him a target.

 

Joe also didn't deny the accusation of him being the one to kill Lord Piffy.

 

My vote is going on The Only Joe.  I apologize if your good Joe but I doubt you are.

[A Joe in the Bush]

No, I didn't kill Pifferdoo. I didn't think I needed to deny something that was obviously untrue.

 

Okay guys, This is starting to worry me, Earlier in the cycle I was against lynching Spencer because I thought we could Pulse him and lynch one of the other Lawmen, but since both Pulsers are out of play, and I'm no longer quite certain of who is another lawman. So Now I'm for lynching Spencer, especially as that will prove my innocence.

 

However, since Alvron apparently has been following the game, and isn't inactive as Winter thought, I think He is one of the Lawmen, as I originally believed.

 I wish I had more time to respond to more posts, but I have to go catch the Bus. I'll try to talk more before the lynch.

 

EDIT: And Haelbarde, you need to be a bit more convoluted in mentioning who you've seeked. I at least found it obvious who your second target was.

Edited April 20, 2015 by The Only Joe

[Wyrmhero]

The Cycle is over!