Quick Fix Game 7: Living (and Dying) Rough

[Haelbarde]

First cycle. Don't have time now to think about it it's a good thing to post publicly. I'll let them if they want in the meantime, but once I've had time to think, I'll get back to you on that one, okay?

[the winter system]

What are the rules on PMs this game, again?

[A Joe in the Bush]

You can send an anonymous message to someone though Wyrm by paying a coin.

[the winter system]

Okay, I thought so. Thanks, Joe. So how are you two PMing back and forth, Haelbarde?

[Emerald101]

if someone did send a PM through wyrm, i don't think anyone but the sender and receiver would have any way of knowing.

[the winter system]

They couldn't PM back and forth because it's an anonymous message. Emphasis on anonymous.

[Haelbarde]

As part of the message sent by Wyrm, in addition to current status of funds etc, I received a message, which had been signed.

 

And I never said anything about PM'ing them back. I received a message is all.

I've had time to think, and I guess I'm pessimistic on our (scoundrel) chances if we fail to remove any eliminators this round.

 

As such, any information needs to be shared with the other villagers.

 

The message I received was signed by Emerald101, claiming to have killed phattemer with the smoking because phattemer was going to be lynched. I will leave Emerald to comment on whether or not he sent this message. That is up to him. All I can do is say what information I have. I have more thoughts on this, but I'll share later.

 

I've got some thoughts about where to go from here, but I need to reread the previous posts again to check some details.

 

The one last thing. I am considering announcing to the thread my role (or lack there of) before the end of this cycle. I mean, unless we actually have a village seeker, there's way that you can verify if I'm telling the truth, but still, I want to put it out there.

Winter -  I guess you have no reason to trust me, but I'm trying to be as open as possible about what I'm doing. I've decided I trust you, for better or for worse. I just hope you can trust me.

 

EDIT:

Beginnings of some thoughts

• spencer has not made a single post since joining this game. He has been online though.
• ostrichofevil did not say anything in the last cycle. He also has been online, and posted elsewhere yesterday even.
• Villagers are useless if they don't talk. The only real information that the Scoundrels get to go on is what other people say. Saying 'I have nothing to add is nothing useful.' It means you've read the thread, and agree with the points raised. So, maybe you don't think there's no new evidence. Maybe not. What is useful, and what most people haven't done, is told us their opinion on the ideas raised. By saying 'I agree with this person, for this reason', you give us information to go on. It lets us highlight the people who are trying to not get too involved. If you die, it gives us clues about who you trust, and why. This helps the villagers scoundrels. They can use the knowledge of what your role was to try find others to trust. It also might help encourage the Lawmen to talk more as well. It's the lawmen who are going to lie, and the more they talk, the more likely they're going to slip. If they slip, we finally get to make an informed vote. So far (presuming smoking gun was held by villagers both times), we've managed to kill 4 of our own. We've had basically nothing to go on. Worse, we got not a lot of discussion last round. We've probably got a bit more information now (combined with the fact that there are now only 11 living), but not tons.
• Experienced players - while a lot of the more experienced players have been taken out, there are still some of you left. While this is my first game with you, and so is helping to form a baseline on what each of you is like, some of you have played quite a number of games with each other before. Are any of the others acting differently? Is Feligon always like that? Does Jain usually talk more often? How about Joe? Is he more subdued than normal? What about Winter? Is there a difference in how she plays when she's good to when she's bad? Is she acting more like one than the other? I can try do some research, but if any of you can answer those sorts of questions, maybe we can identify an eliminator among the earlier generations.

 

EDIT 2:

What's the generic word for what the scoundrels are? Eliminators can be used instead of spiked/lawmen, but what about instead of villager/scoundrel. I can't be bothered going back and fixing them, but I keep using villager :/

Edited April 19, 2015 by Haelbarde

[A Joe in the Bush]

About the smoking Gun kill;

 

I'm willing to bet four coins that a Lawman had it last. There was no reason for a Scoundrel to kill Mailliw, not only was he experienced, but he was a helpful player who was good at instigating discussion.

 

If you are a scoundrel, and killed Mailliw, could you send me an anonymous message explaining why? You don't need to sign it.

 

How about Joe? Is he more subdued than normal?

 

No, I'm acting way less subdued. usually I tend to sit back and lurk, just helping out the Holy Batman! Level players. This game I'm being much more active and talkative because In the last two games, I was killed early on, so i didn't really get to play, and I have a very nice role that ensures if I do get attacked, I'll still be around for at least another cycle.

 

Now then, Analysis:

Suspicious Man (The Only Joe)

He attempted to make a plan for the use of the smoking Gun (Shoot whoever had the second most votes) in order to gain information from the kills that weren't made according to the plan. Most of his votes have been made to either stop people from Meta-Gaming or to get more information on new players. He also made a vote on Dowanx that inspired by avarice. But he talks about himself in third person occasionally, which is just plain weird.

 

Voted for: Wonko , Panda, Emerald, Dowanx, Alvron   Been voted by: Panda, Phattemer, Emerald, Clanky

 

Dr Rab Heatherlocke (Haelbarde)

He's been a very helpful player, making plans, inciting discussion and generally being a leader. He's made a lot of small comments (Like mentioning being worried about how the mechanics of the game favor the Lawmen) That, and the fact that he agreed with everything I said, make me believe He's Innocent.

 

Voted for: Pifferdoo, Spencer, Clanky, Araris  Been voted by: Emerald

 

Doctor Cloud' Wintre (Winter Cloud)

Voted for Araris since he started the voting. There's no good reason for a Lawman to vote try to stop people from voting, unless the person was voting for another Lawman. Because of that, I'm inclined to believe that Winter and Panda are on the same team. 

 

Voted for: Araris , Pifferdoo   Been voted by: Pifferdoo

 

Jain (Lightsworn Panda)

All of his votes have been for people who haven't talked much yet. He's been trying to foster discussion the whole game, and since Lawmen probably don't want to foster discussion, I think he's innocent. Plus he's been evil like what, twice? He's not very good at staying hidden while being evil, and I'm usually pretty good at figuring out when he is evil. And because Winter faux-defended him (See above), I'm inclined to think that He and Winter are innocent.

 

Voted for: Me, Rainspren  Been voted by: Araris, Me

 

Doctor  McNinja (Clanky)

He admitted that with no information, the only thing we could do was vote for a random person and hope to get Information from it. He wound up voting for Dowanx because he wanted the money.

 

Voted for: Dowanx , Me  Been voted by: Haelbarde

 

Nifergo (Feligon)

Voted for Phattemer at random on Day 1. Later gave a troll explanation. Since then he's tried to be more logical and helpful to the players and the game.

 

Voted for: Phattemer , Dowanx, Winter   Been voted by:

 

Doctor Walin (spencer12347)

I think he simply signed up for the game then forgot about it. A genuine AFK. I think we should leave him alive simply because he'll count as one of us against the Lawmen, even if he isn't contributing.

 

Voted for:   Been voted by: Haelbarde

 

Mr John Smith (Emerald101)

Voted against Haelbarde when he voted against Pifferdoo. Pifferdoo has since been proven innocent, and there's really no reason to try and defend someone on day 1, unless they're a Lawman pretending to protect their victim in an attempt to seem more innocent. I'm a bit unsure if he's a lawman or not.

 

Voted for: Haelbarde, Joe and Phatt, Ostrich  Been voted by: Me

 

 

Karlin (Surgebound Rainspren)

Took a stance against Meta-gaming by letting the alignments of other game affect who people vote for.

 

Voted for:   Been voted by: Panda

 

Ralon (Alvron)

A Very good player. Very much a behind the scenes lurker, but is usually more active then this. The fact that he hasn't yet said anything other than 'Hey, I'm alive' makes me think he's either a Lawman avoiding attention or not really paying attention to the game. Both are very bad things, especially in a game this fast.

 

Voted for:   Been voted by: Me

 

The Doctor (ostrichofevil)

One of only two people so far to sell their vote. He declined to give a reason other than wanting money. 

 

Voted for:    Been voted by: Wonko, Emerald

 

So, I think that the Lawmen are Alvron, Rainspren, Ostrich of Evil and (If there's a fourth) Emerald. All of them have been quiet, avoiding attention. Of them, Alvron is the most dangerous, so he's the one I'll be voting for. If whoever holds the smoking Gun would target one of the other two, and the Pulser target one of them as well, I think we'll be able to pull this off.

 

Ugh. that took two hours to write. I'm going to go take a nap.

[Haelbarde]

So a Koloss blooded was killed by the smoking gun. Either Mailliw didn't bother to protect himself with his role, or Whoever had the gun was a spinner. Since Mailliw didn't have the gun, and wasn't a lawmen, he could really only take money actions, so he would have protected himself. Does the owner of the smoking gun want to step forward and explain why they shot Mailliw?

You mean pulser I think. Also, I think you've got things mixed up - the order of deaths (presuming we could even trust that (which we can't really)) was Araris -> Mailliw -> Wonko, implying Mailiw was the eliminator kill and Wonko was the smoking gun, if we can presume the order of kills follows order of actions. This being said, I'm presuming Wyrm would have swapped the order around this time, to throw us off. Unless he thought about that, and so didn't switch... Unfortunately, it's hard to say which exactly happened.

 

I would also like to ask the owner of the smoking gun for cycle 2 to step forward, identify your target, and explain why. Either that, or message Joe or myself. (Better off with Joe, probably, but nothing wrong with redundancy).

 

Mailliw could also potentially have been trying to send a message, though I would have given up on the gamble action in favour of Koloss-blooding if I'd decided to do that.

 

 

No, I'm acting way less subdued. usually I tend to sit back and lurk, just helping out the Holy Batman! Level players. This game I'm being much more active and talkative because In the last two games, I was killed early on, so i didn't really get to play, and I have a very nice role that ensures if I do get attacked, I'll still be around for at least another cycle.

I was more asking those questions for the others to answer, but anyway. Curious...

 

So, I think that the Lawmen are Alvron, Rainspren, Ostrich of Evil and (If there's a fourth) Emerald. All of them have been quiet, avoiding attention. Of them, Alvron is the most dangerous, so he's the one I'll be voting for. If whoever holds the smoking Gun would target one of the other two, and the Pulser target one of them as well, I think we'll be able to pull this off.

To tell the truth, I have had concerns about your allegiance, but I'm deciding to trust you. At least on a cursory read over, your comments seem to make sense. I'll add my vote to Alvron.

 

I'm being pulsed!

Emerald, what would be useful is if you can vote for who you think should be lynched. While it won't actually count towards the lynch it will give us information. Tt will let us verify whether or not you are telling the truth as the pulser and their target can neither make actions or vote the turn after their ability is used. If you are the only person to vote for a player, but the vote tally comes back 0, then I believe that proves that you were indeed pulsed. (Don't think we have any other roles that can make a vote disappear? I guess there is a rioter, but I'd imagine that'd not conflict in this instance).

 

Note for this turn. Whoever the pulser is, if they vote this round, it won't count, nor will they take any actions this evening.

 

---

Now, we assume there are between 2-4 eliminators. At the end of this cycle, it is quite likely that 3 more will die, leaving us at 8 players. Means 40% of the players are eliminators. If they get the smoking gun, they can probably control the lynch, and so they can pick off 3 players. This will leave them outnumbering the scoundrels, presuming there's more than 2 of them. Unless any archivists or koloss-blood among us manage to actually prevent a kill, this could well be our last chance at winning. If we do manage to save some people this round or next, then perhaps we get another rounds grace or so. The point I'm trying to make is that the way I see it, we need to kill an Eliminator, if not 2, this round, if we want to win this game. Joe has a plan, and obviously pending anything people can bring up, it seems like a reasonable one (I am going to do another read over at some point and see if there's stuff I can complain about). So unless someone has a better plan, I say we give this a shot.

 

I am happy to be convinced otherwise, but I'll want an argument for why we shouldn't give this a shot.

 

EDIT:

 

I would still like Winter and Clanky at least to speak up about their opinion on the other experienced players playing this game. Typical or not. Any concerns?

 

Also, I will say that I'm not necessarily sure about your classification of a lot of the people. I would tend to trust Winter, and Clanky, and maybe Emerald. I'm willing to trust your assessment of Lightsworn, though a second opinion (I know, I know, any of you doctors in the guild) would be good. Your argument for Alvron I'm willing to get behind - again, would like Winter and Clanky to comment.

Edited April 19, 2015 by Haelbarde

[Wyrmhero]

The order of the non-lynch kills in the write-up does not matter. Again, I have placed no clues in the writeup - any that you see there are ones you want to see.

 

Also, a small clarification, since I saw it mentioned: A Pulser skips both actions the next Cycle - They cannot Pulse and Smoking Gun/Eliminator Kill the next day.

[the winter system]

The reason why the smoking gun shouldn't speak up is then that means the eliminators have a target to kill for an easy amount of money. But I agree, they should PM whoever they trust.

EDIT: Haelbrade

Edited April 19, 2015 by Winter Cloud

[Haelbarde]

Though ultimately, so long as we don't auction off votes, eliminators have no need of gold. Gold lets them message, gamble (yay... more money) or transfer it. At this point, the most amount of gold matters only to the scoundrels, just only because if we win, the player with the most gold becomes the new leader for this gang. Only reason I'd see that they'd have for killing the player with the most gold is if they had no one better to kill.

 

But PMing is probably better. We do run the risk of having the eliminators kill them off though.

 

EDIT: And thank you Winter.

Edited April 19, 2015 by Haelbarde

[the winter system]

They could buy votes and lynch people. Though I suppose that only counts if someone's selling. I'm thinking about selling. We don't have anyone selling this cycle, yet. 

[spencer12347]

Hey i am a tin eye and i was following the Supicious man he was the guy who shot and killed Doc Piffington. 

Edited April 19, 2015 by spencer12347

[the winter system]

So he could either have had the Smoking Gun, you could be lying, or he could be an eliminator? 

[Haelbarde]

Ummm, could you tell us the results of your cycle 2 tineyeing?

[the winter system]

I have a feeling that spencer's lying. Because earlier this cycle, Joe was being helpful and made a huge post. Also, just a gut feeling. 

[Haelbarde]

In all honesty, I do not know how to react to this right now.

Spencer, you've waited till now to speak up. We have no reason to trust you, and we don't really have the time to verify you. We need information. Tell us everything you can. If you're truly a tineye, well you're not going be able to say anything that'll make it more likely you'll get killed, so anything you can tell us will be useful. What have you done in the game? Why haven't you posted before? Why now?

Without answers, I don't think anyone can really trust you, at all.

Edit:

I hate being gloomy, but no one has talked me out of it yet. The way I see it, this cycle will most probably decide the fare of this game. I feel that unless an eliminator falls, this game is lost. Not only that, but I feel like the eliminators end game could have already started with the actions of last cycle. If my suspicions are correct, it makes it then vital that everyone posts their thoughts on Joe's analysis, what Spencer has said, the message sent apparently by Emerald (Emerald, specifically it would be good if you could comment, unless Winter thinks it's a bad idea).

Edited April 19, 2015 by Haelbarde

[the winter system]

I have a feeling that I should trust Joe and not trust Spencer, and I'm not sure what to think about Emerald yet. I kind don't really trust Emerald. Jain, I feel as if something's off. I'm not good at supreme analysis. Most of what I think is guesswork.

[Feligon]

Alvron.  Sorry I don't have time to explain my reasoning, but it's about the same as joe's.

[the winter system]

I don't think Alvron's a lawman.

[Clanky]

I'm also not too sure about Alvron being a Lawman. There really hasn't been that much discussion prior to this cycle. Going by his last post I can see him starting to contribute more after all this discussion.

 

Now as for Spencers claim: I find the timing of this reveal very very suspicious. Placing the blame on a player who just revealed what he thinks is a list of all the spiked. Also the first post Spencer has. That is a very good way to invalidate someones ideas. However it could all just be terrible timing. 

 

 

EDIT: 100th post on 17th shard.  That's kinda cool

Edited April 19, 2015 by Clanky

[the winter system]

If Spencer is evil, those people who Joe said where suspicious start to look a lot more suspicious.

[Emerald101]

I'll confirm that I indeed did have the smoking gun first round. I used it to kill phattemer because i thought he'd be lynched that round, and I didn't want to accidentally kill an extra scoundrel.  (this was before a ton of people got on and voted downax, which i didn't see until the start of the next cycle.) I'll go ahead and vote for The Doctor (ostrichofevil) again to confirm that i am indeed under the influence of a pulser.

 

On a side note: as much as i want to think otherwise, I'm starting to wonder if Haelbarde is a lawman, and is being "helpful" in order to mask his true motives.

[Clanky]

So if phatt had indeed been lynched before Emerald could use the smoking gun what would have happened? Would that have counted as him using the gun because he attempted to use it? Does it kill the holder only if they don't give a target at all or does it also kill if your target is invalid i.e already dead?

 

 

EDIT: I suppose this is a question for the GM. What would happen in this situation Wyrm?

EDIT 2: Apparently this has already been answered sorry.

Edited April 19, 2015 by Clanky